- T-0 Time to finish the task and make it too big to cheat
FIGHT . . . . . FIGHT. . . . . FIGHT
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
All should increase their awareness of their surroundings and increase monitoring of news sources for quick identification of any areas under protest/riots and avoid.
The best predictor of future behavior, as the truism goes, is past behavior.
And leftist mobs’ favorite behavior in the world is rioting for pseudo-noble causes.
What will Tuesday night look like - many looking at 2016 for clues.
RELATED - Signs going up right now indicating there will be election night mayhem in Seattle. The far-left activists are planning to take over Cal Anderson Park in Capitol Hill. Antifa wants comrades to wear masks and body armor. This is the same area Antifa occupied for weeks for CHAZ in 2020.
***
(FO) PROGRESSIVE ORGS COORDINATE POST-ELECTION RESPONSE: A number of progressive and socialist organizations are beginning public outreach to coordinate and mobilize a response to a potential Trump election victory.
- The Election Response Center is a coalition of 100+ social and political activist organizations including the Working Families Party, MoveOn, Indivisible, the American Civil Liberties Union, and others, who are holding a meeting to discuss how to “move quickly to ‘Make Meaning of the Moment’ after Election Day.”
Freedom Road Socialist Organization (FRSO), a left wing political revolutionary organization, issued an all-call to mobilize in protest after Election Day, regardless of who wins.“FRSO urges our members and supporters to take to the streets and organize the broadest possible protests the day after the November 5 elections… We know that the protests will be larger if Trump wins or declares himself the winner, so it’s important that we try to unite all who can be united… All out for November 6!” reads the statement.
FRSO was active during the 2020 unrest and has organized numerous other demonstrations and protests.
OBSERVATION - The folks at Forward Observer are tracking these developments closely. The big question mark is how quickly will they gain traction when they give the word?
***
Secret Service just uncovered yet another assassination plot against Trump, this time in PA ahead of his Penn State rally. This follows the recent arrest of an Idaho man threatening to shoot him.
https://x.com/TheRedactedInc/status/1853411874953744408
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
The FBI foiled a possible drone attack on an energy facility in Tennessee on Monday, the Justice Department announced, after a man allegedly planned to fly the drones packed with explosives into the plant, which would destroy critical infrastructure.
The Justice Department said the suspect, 24-year-old Skyler Philippi, was arrested and charged with attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction and attempted destruction of an energy facility.
“As charged, Skyler Philippi believed he was moments away from launching an attack on a Nashville energy facility to further his violent white supremacist ideology – but the FBI had already compromised his plot,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.
He was caught with a drone powered up, and the explosive device armed and located next to the drone.
OBSERVATION - Finally, someone “on the radar” was actually stopped. White supremcists category which the DoJ may try to warp into any trump voter.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The Social Security Administration has finally released the final wage statistics for 2023, and they are quite sobering. According to the report, last year the “median wage” in this country was just $43,222.81. In other words, half of all American workers made less than $43,222.81, and half of all American workers made more than $43,222.81. That is terrible news, because the cost of living has been rising much faster than paycheck have.
***
The Treasury Department has put out its first-ever “National Strategy for Financial Inclusion in the United States” calling on financial institutions to “address disparities” by lowering their standards and amending their business practices.
The goal of the “national strategy” is to increase “inclusion” of so-called “underserved” groups, which it says financial institutions have historically excluded and discriminated against:
The national strategy does not explain how financial institutions could viably provide financial products and services to people who are without a fixed address (homeless).
Likewise, it doesn’t provide any concrete suggestions about how to profitably provide financial products and services to immigrants and refugees (especially, if they’re in the U.S. illegally). It just says they should do it.
Providing more financial products and services to “justice-involved individuals” in the name of inclusion also seems a problematic business risk since, by government definition, “Justice-involved individuals” individuals are:
“People who are now, or have spent time, in jails, youth correctional facilities, or prisons - are at higher risk for injury and death than the general public. They face disproportionate risk of violence, overdose, and suicide.”
OBSERVATION - This is communism folks and an attempt to force banks into the wealth redistribution effort. Following the money in this one will only result in bank failures and more problems for regular customers who will find the banks refusing them service because of priorities to these ‘oppressed’ elements and resources directed to these money black holes.
***
(FO) According to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor report, 50% of ag economists expect U.S. ranchers to begin rebuilding herds in the first half of 2026. StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said drought conditions in the west that do not incentivize herd rebuilding “[are] the problem right now.” Suderman added, “We’ve seen a slowdown of cow slaughter. That’s step one, but that’s not rebuilding.”
OBSERVATION - Don’t expect relief from high beef prices for a while.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The last two, of six B-52H bombers from the 5th Bomb Wing deployed to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. All of the bombers are stationed at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
The replacement of romney’s niece with Trumps DIL at the head of the RNC has paid off in the attention given to preemptively hit cheating attempts by democrats. Armed with the knowledge of their tactics, the RNC and supporting private legal elements of conservative organizations, launched numerous lawsuits which has taken the wind out of the sails of much of the democrat attempts to cheat by bringing in ‘late’ ballots, scanning fraudulent ballots, sneaking in ballots, etc. A lot of this was also helped by the massive vote early efforts which seem to have forced the leftist’s hand.
Preemptively, RNC has reported that they have at least 500 lawyers in each key state ready to challenge additional identified cheating and ‘irregularities’. At least this time around we are far more ready than 2020.
Russia -
*****
Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.
The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.
Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices—electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance—were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot, according to security officials and people familiar with the probe.
Security officials say the electric massagers, sent to the U.K. from Lithuania, appear to have been a test run to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Senior officials in the Kremlin: “Israel should know that as soon as it attacks the nuclear facilities in Iran with the cooperation of the US, we will give Iran nuclear bombs and chemical warheads.”
OBSERVATION - This may be just talk and posturing, but the real risk is nuclear proliferation and nuclear blackmail Russian has aggressively been playing the past several years. If evidence of nuclear warheads appear in Iran, Israel will turn it into a nuclear wasteland soon thereafter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
2/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
78/79 Shahed drones (48 shot down, 30 by electronic warfare)
One drone returned to Russia.
Drones were primarily focused on the Kyiv region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukrainian Ground Forces in the Kursk Region of Western Russia, are claiming to have had their First Engagement with North Korean Troops; as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated today that over 11,000 North Korean Soldiers have now been Deployed to the Kursk Region.
The U.S. State Department estimates that 10,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s Kursk region to join the fighting.
Ukraine gained ground in the northern areas of the salient over the past few days.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Tracking the NK forces. Question was raised - would the NK forces follow Korean War mass human wave attacks? No, they don’t have the numbers to do so. Being Opcon to Russian forces, they likely may be used to some extent in the infamous Russian ‘meat attacks’ though. Depends upon how callous putin is towards these forces and his willingness to send most of them home in body bags.
Russia continues to press the drone game almost every day now.
Meanwhile, the fight in the Donbas region continues to be pressed by Russia with minimal gains with heavy losses.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Peskov commented on the elections in Moldova, won by the pro-European Maia Sandu, stating that the results of the presidential elections cannot be considered clean due to numerous manipulations. He highlighted that hundreds of thousands of Moldovans living in Russia were not given the right to vote, which affected the results. Additionally, he claimed that the majority of Transnistrian residents were not allowed to vote.
OBSERVATION - Peskov pressing the victim angle in losing. This election will not stop Russia’s attempts to influence Moldovan policies and stop the move to the EU, but will just make the fight fiercer in the parliament.
Poland –
(FO) Poland’s government claims to have strong evidence of a Russian sabotage attempt. Their Foreign Minister ordered 10 Russian Consulate workers expelled, will close a Russian Consulate in western Poland, and is reportedly considering expelling the Russian Ambassador to Poland. On Friday, Poland began building its barriers for East Shield, Poland’s plan to militarize the border with Belarus.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel increased its state of alert overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
NOTE ON YESTERDAY’S ALERT - See Islamic Resistance below. Apparently their announcement was taken and amplified by arab media. They did fire numerous drones, but only a few managed to reach Israel.
The IDF has heightened its state of alert and readiness in anticipation of a possible Iranian response to the recent Israeli strike.
Talk of Israel considering a preemptive strike against Iran.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF is building multiple observation posts along the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border to lessen the need for ground forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF has withdrawn brigades from Lebanon for refreshment
***
Israel has laid out conditions for future operations in Lebanon.
1. If no ceasefire is reached, the IDF plans to intensify ground operations and airstrikes in Lebanon, pushing deeper to dismantle Hezbollah’s secondary defense lines.
2.Israel will prevent Lebanese residents from returning to border towns until northern Israeli residents can safely return; even after a ceasefire, the IDF will maintain a substantial presence along the border
***
OSINT evaluations indicates that
1. Hezbollah’s rocket fire has dropped significantly, from 200-300 rockets per day to a maximum of 90 per day.
2. The number of rockets per barrage has dropped dramatically, from 30-60 or even over 100 rockets at a time to just 5-20—and sometimes they struggle to launch even 2 rockets.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1853725888023547910?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Observatory: 2 killed, 5 injured from Hezbollah in Israeli raid on farm near Sayyida Zeinab neighborhood in Damascus.
***
“Infrastructure and assets of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in the Damascus area were attacked. Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters operates a branch in Syria, which includes a collection and evaluation system, and it operates independently. Hezbollah, with the support of the Syrian regime, endangers the safety of Syrian citizens by establishing headquarters and forces in civilian areas of the country.”
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a collection of Iranian-backed groups in both Iraq and Syria, released a series of statements claiming to have launched multiple drones last night against military targets and infrastructure within the city of Haifa in Northwestern Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Yesterday’s drone attack alert caused numerous OSINT folks to flare red lights initially and cautiously. The potential was there, but not just at this time.
Assessment of the increased scale of Iran’s next attack is interesting (see Iran below). Potentially double the previous attacks. The assets potentially contributed by the regular Iranian forces suggest a degree of desperation by Iran. Long range drones being tapped and even sending Su-24’s on a one way trip to launch stand off weapons - folks, IAF will eat their lunch before they even get close enough to launch.
If the assessment is relatively accurate, this will be a very serious strike with great potential for damage to Israeli locations. This will unplug Israel from any restraints and Israel will hit Iran back in a massive manner.
Timing remains the big question. Israel’s defensive posture suggests they see the attempt coming very soon, soon enough for Israel to contemplate a preemptive strike. Post election may grant some cover for Iran as govt eyes will be focused here, and not so much there and with a longer delay for any US offensive action (if any).
Hezbollah continues to be reduced in Lebanon as well as in locations in Syria where some command and intel centers have moved in an effort to avoid targeting by Israel. Hasn’t worked too well.
Osint’s analysis echoes what I’ve been observing and IDF claiming. The mighty Hezbollah rocket threat has been emasculated. The drone side of the equation has been causing more issues than rockets.
Though there is talk, many don’t see Hezbollah capitulating to any ceasefire or compliance who UN 1701 any time soon. I suspect that pressure by the Lebanese govt and anti-Hezbollah sects will have to increase before Hezbollah will capitulate.
Gaza continues to be the site of Hamas’ last stand. IDF forces are increasing to squeeze strongholds in N Gaza.
The US reportedly still isn’t happy with the amount of relief entering Gaza, especially with the expulsion of UN relief agencies. These agencies reportedly only handle something like 17% of the aid that enters the area anyway.
Finally, reportedly Hamas has lost all tracking / locations of any Israeli hostage. The US most recent proposal for a ceasefire, already rejected by Hamas, only called for the release of 4 - that’s right, FOUR, of the hostages in exchange for 100 Hamas prisoners and 60 day ceasefire. Sorry to have to recognize that barring any miracles, the remaining hostages are likely to be dead very soon. When that threshold is crossed, any restraint towards the remaining elements of Hamas will likely vanish and an immense revenge factor kicked in.
Iran –
Iranian media reported that the Iranian satellites Kausar and Hodhod were launched into space with the Russian Soyuz launcher.
NOTE - These are reportedly micro satellites that were part of a larger payload of micro’s. Their purpose has not been reported.
***
The U.S. State Department has said that their message to Iran and Iranian Supreme-Leader, Ali Khamenei, is that they should not escalate the conflict in the Middle East, but that if they do the United States will defend its interests in the region and Israel.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1853516577586507822?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Researcher with the Washington Institute, wrote on his X account, that Iran may launch its retaliatory strike against Israel on Tuesday night during the U.S. Presidential Election. With the attack likely to involve at least 400 Missiles aimed at Israeli Air Defense Bases and Sites, as well as Defense Manufacturing Industries around the city of Haifa. Iran is likely to utilize its “Khorramshahr-4” Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles, as well as missiles launched by Iranian-Backed Groups in Iraq and possible Syria; in addition, the Iranian Army or Artesh is expected to participate, likely using its “Arash” Long-Range Attack Drones and Su-24MK “Fencer-D” Tactical Bombers, equipped with Stand-Off Weapons.
OBSERVATION - Interesting assessment in the assets Iran may use this next time around. Other reports note Haifa may bear the brunt of the next attack.
Iraq -
Overnight, reports of alert state increased at U.S Embassy, Baghdad and at the airport and bases where U.S forces are.
The banks were told they had to give home loans to people with bad credit, which was a contributing factor to the housing collapse. To add insult to injury the banks were forced to pay compensation that went to the NGOs that pushed these loans to begin with. Now there’s millions of unvetted illegals the government wants to sell homes to.
I am no fan of big banks, but they should not be forced into being social and welfare agents. The rest of us have to pay.
The day after and a new reality is beginning to set in.
Globalism / Great Reset –
“If Trump becomes President again in 2024…it will be the final death blow…to the Global Order…”
- WEF’s Yuval Noah Harari
Advisor to Klaus Schwab
OBSERVATION - The WEF and the global order will not disappear that quickly and easily. They are already buried too deeply in Europe, Canada and Australia to just up and pack their bags. Trump will be a significant barrier, especially armed with Musk and others who are hot against globalists as well.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
Maintaining higher status in the face of a Trump victory - see below
NOTE - Violence overnight was very minimal as noted below.
** My Observations post Trump victory and CW2 **
Pretty simple at this stage, the scope of his victory (EV landslide and popular vote) is forcing a recalibration of the violent left’s goals and tactics. “spontaneous” rioting does not appear to be on the immediate radar, but there continue to be potential trigger points - so we are’t out of the woods yet.
One of the key things I sense that will keep riots down in the short term is the emotions and drive of harris supporters. I see primarily despair and disappointment. This is contrasted with the response of hillary supporters who also had despair, but were triggered forward out of a sense of outrage over the election being ‘stolen’ because of the close results and hillary winning the popular vote while losing the EV. Remember, hillary was (and still is) a mega denier. Harris even if she tried couldn’t rouse the same anger - the win was too big and across the board.
I rate the possibility of pre-inauguration violence increasing toward Jan 2025. The left will cling to lawfare as the means now to keep trump out of office and the corrupt judges and prosecutors have their marching orders to do all they can to accomplish the task. But the election results - a mandate for Trump - should be giving them second thoughts. In two months the blow back from the Trump administration will be big and their corrupt prosecutions blowing wide open. The finality of the lawfare may be basis for violence on both sides and may trigger major scraps as this would create a significant constitutional crisis.
The Electoral College process is still vulnerable to disruption when the Electors meet in December. Republican control of the Senate in January will prevent Democrats from disrupting the transfer of power from Biden to Trump by blocking certification or passing a bill disqualifying Trump under the 14th Amendment. (FO)
Beyond that increasing potential for riots as Trump begins mass deportations and cracks down on the open border. Both are big causes for the lefties. Trump’s first year in office is potentially turbulent.
Finally, actions by foreign terrorists and gangs will vary. Gangs may become more aggressive in the face of deportations while foreign agents may lie low and appear under the cover of larger protests and riots. To do so independently could expose their networks too soon.
Bottom line, hold tight and keep your powder dry.
***
A voting site in Centre County, Pennsylvania was evacuated after a group of unidentified “disruptors” stormed the polling station, Daily Mail reported.
According to the Centre County Report, local police ordered the evacuation around 7 p.m. ET as multiple individuals burst into the polling site.
The identities of those involved, as well as their affiliations or motivations, remain undisclosed. Authorities have not yet confirmed whether the disruptors are linked to either of the leading campaigns.
Bellefonte sits in Central Pennsylvania. Centre County voted Democrat in the most recent presidential election, with Joe Biden winning 51.4% of the vote to Donald Trump’s 46.7%.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/voting-site-key-swing-state-pennsylvania-evacuated-after/
***
Seattle Police shut down the Antifa election night riot in the area near the former CHAZ autonomous zone occupation.
***
The Georgia Secretary of State reports that a Series of Bomb Threats earlier today which caused 2 Polling Locations in Fulton County to be Temporarily Closed, originated from Russia.
The FBI reports that bomb threats at several polling stations across multiple states seem to be traced back to Russian email domains.
***
MSNBC correspondent Joy Reid said that Florida has an “extremist right-wing fascist type” government following GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s win in the state and the failure of an abortion ballot measure.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/media/joy-reid-says-florida-has-extremist-right-wing-fascist-type-government
OBSERVATION - Even in the face of an election and the vote of the people, the rabid left still spews this nonsense. This indicates that the hatred of trump and all opponents of their agenda is still brewing.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The share of newly constructed homes among total homes sold in the third quarter declined in the United States, affected by factors such as a slowdown in construction and an increased supply of existing houses, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.
“Newly built homes made up 28 percent of single-family homes for sale nationwide in the third quarter, the lowest level in three years,” the company said in a Nov. 1 statement. “That’s down from 30.5 percent a year earlier and a record-high 34.4 percent at the start of 2022.”
OBSERVATION - Housing market has always been a key indicator of the economy’s health and it is still acting in an unhealthy manner.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
***
President Donald Trump has officially won the popular vote and the Electoral College.
Trump leads in Michigan, and Arizona, which will bring him to over 300 electors!
Claims being made that Vice-President Kamala Harris has called President-Elect Donald J. Trump to concede the race and congratulate him on the win, appear to be false.
Kamala Harris has chosen not to concede or address her supporters.
Currently, both the House and Senate are going to be in Republican control.
OBSERVATION - The combined EV landslide AND win of the popular vote has moved his second term into MANDATE mode. This has sharp implications for the democrat resistance in the near term. See my observations under CW2 above.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris didn’t even address her ‘supporters’ last night. Didn’t call to congratulate Trump. A sore loser.
Russia -
*****
Commenting on Trump’s win, putin stated the US has now become a hostile country.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
For the first time, Ukraine drones have attacked the base of Russian Navy Caspian Sea Fleet in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. Drones reportedly hit at least two targets in Kaspiysk, Dagestan: the Project 11661 Tatarstan and Project 11661K Dagestan Gepard-class frigates.
Slow night for Russian drones, only a few fired off overnight.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Trump’s win will reverberate in the war on both sides. One of Trump’s promises was to stop the fighting. His path for doing that has not been made clear but may involve Ukraine ceding some territory with vast drawdowns and removal of Russian forces from the theater. Should putin refuse, then there is a possibility Trump will allow Ukraine freer hand in deep strikes. This will be something that develops over the next couple of months.
Until then, the on the ground battles continue to grind of with no signs of any serious breakouts to upset the dynamic status quo.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu fired the defense minister Galant overnight. Riots broke out in support of Gallant.
- Katz - Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel will become the defense minister
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu just fired the defense minister Galant. Katz - Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel will become the defense minister within 48 hours.
Protests into the firing of Gallant have begun in Tel Aviv, with demonstrators currently blocking the shalom Interchange and moving on Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea.
The Office of the Prime Minister has said that media reports which suggested that Netanyahu was preparing to remove both the IDF Chief of General Staff and the Director of Shin Bet, are false and attempts to create division within the Country.
Gallant in a Statement just now to the Media, claims that there are three reasons for his removal as Defense Minister, they include:
1. His demand that Ultra-Orthodox Jews be included in the Draft to carry out their Mandatory Service.
2. His support for a Ceasefire and Hostage Deal in the Gaza Strip.
3. His support for an Inquiry into the Failings of the Military and Intelligence Establishment on October 7th.
A Statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following his removal of Gallant earlier, “Unfortunately, over the past few months, the trust between me and the Minister of Defense has cracked. Significant gaps were discovered in the management of the war, and these gaps were accompanied by statements and actions that contradict the decisions of the government and the decisions of the cabinet.”
Pentagon says it will work closely with Israel’s new defense minister after dismissal of “trusted partner” Gallant.
OBSERVATION - Many consider this to be Netanyahu’s quick strike seeing that Trump was going to be reelected. Gallant has been in pocket of 0bama and biden and has been working behind Netanyahu’s back to force biden’s demands for executing the current war onto Israel. With Gallant gone and with him the overt pressure from the biden regime with a trump presidency in the future, Netanyahu now has a clearer path to prosecute the war the way he sees fit.
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reported to have approved a plan to offer upwards of $5 Million as well as travel outside of Gaza, for any Palestinian in the Gaza Strip who aids in the return of a Hostage.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli forces have entered the second month of their prolonged operation in Jabaliya, in the northern third of the Gaza Strip, effectively placing the area under siege, the IDF confirmed Tuesday. About 1000 Hamas terrorists have been killed since the start of the operation with about 500-600 still imbedded within the core of Jabaliya’s refugee camp or in nearby towns such as Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skfuaydwyl
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued hammering of key Hezbollah facilities in the north and methodic ground gains in the south.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army: We attacked weapons depots used by Hezbollah’s armament unit in Syria
———WEST BANK——————————-
PA security forces detonated explosive devices prepared to confront Israeli security forces operation in Tubas
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The removal of the defense minister in the midst of a multi front war is almost unheard of. However, Gallant has been the puppet of biden and 0bama for the last number of years as the american leftists have tried to eliminate Netanyahu from the Israeli political scene. In recent months Gallant has contacted Washington behind Netanyahu’s back on implementing biden’s essential surrender to Hamas for hostages. Netanyahu may have seen Trump’s win coming and took the risk to remove him. Now Netanyahu has to trouble out the next couple months of the lame duck biden regime’s likely retaliation.
The Trump win also changes the dynamics of the middle east conflict. Trump was one of the biggest supporters of Israel in his first term and his campaigning in 2024 showed no change in that support. He has repeatedly said Israel has the right to defend itself and will not hinder their actions.
With Iran’s two big proxy groups - Hamas and Hezbollah - on the verge of being fully terminated and facing Israel, exposed, on its own, the Mullah’s must be rethinking their strategy. They have a two month window of action before Trump comes and an reimposes the strict sanctions it suffered thru before. It means that the US force build up in the region will continue to be restrained from offensive actions, even in the event US bases are hit. Once Trump hit office, they know he understands the economy of force in the middle east and has demonstrated his willingness to use it. Iran is looking down the barrel of Israel’s gun and the inclusion of a US threat may be too much. So it may try to strike in this lame duck period and get all the milage it can.
Best continued guesstimation at this stage continues to be an Iranian attack in the next few days.
In Gaza, Israeli tactics on significantly reduced Hamas forces has shifted to more pinpoint efforts. As the article I linked to above indicates, snipers, drones and new high precision mortars are being lethally employed as Hamas tries to pass itself off as civilians.
Israel is transitioning more and more into a post-Hamas mode, working on closing who will be the new leadership of Gaza. No matter who is in control of Gaza when the dust settles, IDF will have a large presence for the near future.
Hezbollah continues to fight but Israel has the initiative. They have little to no help coming from Iran and declining reserves of ammo and rockets/missiles. Israel is wrapping up the capture and destruction of hezbollah bases in the border zone. In the next few weeks Israel will likely move on the second belt if there isn’t progress on a ceasefire and effective disarmament of and removal of Hezbollah to locations north of the Litiani River.
As the fight goes on, Israel seems to be swaying the Lebanese govt to be more forceful towards Hezbollah. Their readiness to deploy 1500 to the south is a starter, but vastly too small to make any 1 on 1 enforcement with Hezbollah impossible without Israeli support. That cooperation isn’t happening yet.
Iraq -
The Biden administration warned the Iraqi government that if it doesn’t prevent an Iranian attack from its soil, it could face an Israeli attack on its territory, two U.S. officials told
Lebanon -
Sources in the Lebanese government update that at the meeting of the Lebanese government that will take place tomorrow, a decision is expected to be made to deploy 1,500 additional soldiers from the Lebanese army south of the Litani river, as a first step in implementing Resolution 1701