Posted on 11/03/2023 7:16:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
"You can't have a recession if everyone has a job and everyone is spending money," I told the audience in Las Vegas.
We hosted our annual Stansberry Conference last month. And I had the honor of sharing my most up-to-date thoughts on the markets and the economy.
Everyone is still on edge, waiting for a recession to take hold in the U.S. Many of our analysts at Stansberry Research are exploring the possibility, too.
It's good to be prepared. But you shouldn't lose sleep over this fear. The reason why is as simple as what I said in Vegas...
Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy. So a major slowdown isn't likely if people have jobs and cash to spend.
Importantly, folks have more cash on hand right now than you probably realize. And until that changes, a recession is unlikely from here.
Let me explain...
Spending money is as American as baseball or apple pie. It keeps the economy humming... And folks simply won't stop spending until they're out of cash.
The pandemic stimulus pushed thousands of dollars into the average American's bank account. It's what kept us from falling into a much more painful and prolonged recession in 2020. But now, the narrative in the financial media is that most people have spent all their savings.
That couldn't be further from the truth.
We can see it by looking at checkable deposits. These represent the total cash held in checking, savings, and money-market accounts here in the U.S.
Specifically, we're looking at the personal-sector checkable deposits. This is money held by households, nonprofit organizations, and nonfinancial, noncorporate businesses. You can think of it as cash that individuals and small businesses have on hand.
If the economy were about to crash, we'd expect these folks to be hurting. But the numbers don't lie. And today, they tell us that Americans are holding a near-record amount of cash... trillions of dollars more than before the pandemic. Take a look...
This group had less than $2 trillion at their disposal before the pandemic. Today, that figure has soared to nearly $5 trillion.
Now, it is true that the figure has dropped by a few hundred billion from last year's high. But it still amounts to trillions of dollars in excess cash, versus just a few years ago. And that means consumers will keep spending... heading off a potential recession.
Another interesting detail is that it isn't just the wealthiest consumers holding that extra cash. The most well-off do have a majority of these savings. But even the less well-off are in a much better position than they were before the pandemic. Take a look...
This chart shows the checkable deposits for the bottom 50% in overall wealth. These folks have nearly $300 billion in cash available. That's a staggering amount – triple what they had before the pandemic began.
Both charts tell the same story... The average American has plenty of cash on hand right now. Consumers will be able to keep spending. And it's hard to have a recession if everyone is spending money.
Sure, that situation can't last forever. But it's the reality for now – and it isn't something that will change overnight. So while everyone is worried about an economic downturn, remember... it probably won't happen until this excess cash disappears.
Good investing
Written by a fool.
A fool: One who has all of the facts but knows not what to do with them.
Business economy is like sex. Going like mad and feels great....and then suddenly it stops.
It seems, people are refusing to downgrade their lifestyle. Not only credit cards but HELOC spending as well. Or, even, I am reading taking money out of the 401K.
Maybe they figure the government doesn’t pay its debt, forgives the debt of random groups, and there are no repercussions. So why not FAFO with their own debt?
yes the stock market has been flat lined for the last two years it looks like a yoyo but stays flat lined.
I’m just going to post this article here since it is the only business/economy thread that I see handy.
“”Some Deposits May Be Temporarily Delayed”: Downdetector Shows Service Disruptions At US Banks “
""You can't have a recession if everyone has a job and everyone is spending money," I told the audience in Las Vegas."
As a side note to this thread, please consider the following.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but corrupt Democratic and RINO, post 16th (direct taxes) and 17th Amendment ratification federal lawmakers can take credit for keeping the economy going by using all the unconstitutional taxes that they collect and bribes that they take to likewise bribe people to vote to keep them in office so that they can continue to try to destroy our constitutional republic.
Alleged: (list not intended to be complete)
Feds investigating if Menendez and wife got gifts including D.C. apartment, Mercedes and jewelry (5.25.23)
Regarding unconstitutional federal taxes, please consider the following excerpts from the writings and quotations of respected constitutional experts.
"Congress is not empowered to tax for those purposes which are within the exclusive province of the States." —Justice John Marshall, Gibbons v. Ogden, 1824.
“If the tax be not proposed for the common defence, or general welfare, but for other objects, wholly extraneous, (as for instance, for propagating Mahometanism among the Turks, or giving aids and subsidies to a foreign nation, to build palaces for its kings, or erect monuments to its heroes,) it would be wholly indefensible upon constitutional principles [emphases added].” — Justice Joseph Story, Commentaries on the Constitution 2 (1833).
From the congressional record:
”Simply this, that the care of the property, the liberty, and the life of the citizen, under the solemn sanction of an oath imposed by your Constitution, is in the States and not in the federal government [emphases added]. I have sought to effect no change in that respect in the Constitution of the country.” —John Bingham, Congressional. Globe. 1866, page 1292 (see top half of third column)
“Cherish, therefore, the spirit of our people, and keep alive their attention. If once they become inattentive to the public affairs, you and I, and Congress and Assemblies, judges and governors, shall all become wolves [emphasis added]. It seems to be the law of our general nature.” - Thomas Jefferson (Letter to Edward Carrington January 16, 1787)
Pelosi: "We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it." (non-FR; 6 sec.)
Democrats [and RINOs] Are Terrified Of An Educated And Informed Public (3.12.23)
Patriots, the next major political event in U.S. is not Democratic and Republican Trump-supporting patriots reelecting hopeful Trump 47 for a second time, but when patriots support Trump with a new Congress by primaryiing ALL incumbent state and federal lawmakers and executives up for reelection, except for MTG, Gaetz & Company, Jordan (and others?), in 2024.
After all, lawmakers and executives continue to show that they do not have the patriotism and leadership skills necessary to find legislative support for effective remedies for unconstitutional government policies.
I think one thing that is keeping people afloat is the number of elderly parents that have passed away over the pass few years. Many died from Covid, others after getting the vaccine. The “boomer” parent’s homes (with no mortgage) are being sold for several times the amount paid for them 30 or 40 years ago.
These sales are giving their 30 to 60 year old children a lot of money to spend. Many of those that died were from the generation that believed in saving money, paying off their mortgage early, and not spending money they didn’t have. They also believed in having lots of life insurance so we have relatively young people getting 250 thousand to one million dollars dropped in their lap (depending on the number of heirs).
I wonder if there have been any studies done on the amount of life insurance pay-outs and probated estate sales done over the pass three years?
Today's household survey for October shows employment collapsed by 348K, the biggest drop since the Covid shutdown.
Extremely sad isn’t it. They have never known anything but prosperity. They are in for a life-changing reality, and shame on Stansberry Research for this BS statement, in my opinion.
That’s an interesting angle: Money forwarded from the previous generation.
I see in this story and the comments that there is a great deal of overthinking on the subject.
Whereas all of the story and comments may be factual, the bottom line is that there are in financial matters unbreakable laws that are as certain as the law of gravity.
We have broken all of them.
Just as with the law of gravity, the consequences of those laws can be postponed by various means, but like the law of gravity there comes a tme when you lose and it wins.
The question really is....the end is near, but for how much longer can we postpone the end?
It depends on how they are spending it. If it is all debt, it will collapse
Well. Finally someone has joined me in the assessment that i have been ridiculed for... there is too much money in the economy that has been printed from thin air. The money supply grew too much too fast and the spending spree isn’t going away until that is remedied. At least the neer do wells are with second homes in the Hampton’s are doing their part and selling at a loss.
----
In addition to hubby and myself, I know several couples whose parents of one party or the other (and sometimes both) have passed away in the past few years. Of course, I do not know the particulars of how much they received from insurance and estate sales, but it is obvious by their recent purchases and vacations that they all received quite a bit of money. And, I saw the real estate ads and the amount some of the properties were listed for prior to them selling pretty fast.
Good points—we had that happen to us as well—not enough to be life changing but enough to give us an extra “cushion” so we do not have to worry about money.
Yes and no, imo.
Yeah, there’s a lot of created cash sloshing around in the economy...but every slosh lands more and more into the pockets of the wealthy/well-to-do individuals and corporations and less so for the middle class and for folk just getting by.
Evidence of this: All reports on CC debt say it’s high and continuing to get higher.
Every situation is individual. If I’m hurting, it matters little how well my neighbor is doing or if stocks are up. I’ve already spent my cash-on-hand and probably sold the stock, too.
Let me explain...
Explain? No, 'obfuscate' is the operative verb here.
Not too mention the sheer volume of people I see on Facebook looking for rooms to rent, renting rooms, single mom's looking for help because they aren't making it anymore (but were previously) etc.
Maybe it's not a recession to them but whatever this is, it is no country I ever recall residing in or one I'd like to leave for my kids.
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