Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
I don't know the idiom 'turned into sunflowers' an allusion to Clytie having princess Leucothoe buried alive, in a vain attempt to win back Helios, maybe?
I've been wondering how Democrat/commie filth would find a way to decleare martial law before the elections... this would work - riots and slaughter between 'illegals and the inner city black community'. Used as an 'emergency' excuse to take guns away from all citizens - including the real target group - innocent traditional white middle class Americans.
It’s Ukrainian origin reference.
Domestic violence of that nature my well provide the justification for martial law
I agree increasing likelihood of their attempt to do so and blame it on white conservatives
From the context I gather it’s where we might say ‘pushing up daises’.
With law enforcement agencies unable to fill their ranks due to early retirements and recruitments at new lows,
I wonder if we aren't seeing a abrupt societal and cultural change and shift against law enforcement in general.
We are already experiencing a rise in border incidents with the drug cartels,
and also homicides in metropolitan areas with foreign organized criminal elements of landed MS-13 members,
then add the "law fare" political incidents, I question the sustainability of maintaining 'law and order' in the nation.
Add to this mix the Dumbocratic move to eliminate firearms from the lawful society, while not enforcing the existing laws against the criminal element,
we are disarming the lawful citizenry and making them potential disarmed crime "victims" who are unable to defend themselves.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at the UN said free speech is a weapon of war, and censorship is necessary to protect free speech.
OBSERVATION - No, this isn’t a Bee headline. Only the perverse Orwellian overlords of the WEF would have the audacity to make such a statement.
***
The Democrat mayor of Phoenix, Arizona, Kate Gallego, has taken steps toward enforcing the globalist agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by moving to ban meat and dairy consumption and private car ownership in an effort to meet the radical claim goals of the green agenda.
Gallego is reportedly laying the groundwork to usher in WEF founder Klaus Schwab’s 2030 Agenda in Phoenix. Gallego, is a member of C40 since 2020, now serves as “Vice Chair of the C40 Steering Committee,” which” provides strategic oversight to ensure C40’s mission and mandate are directly driven by and responsive to the needs of C40 cities.”
OBSERVATION- Another example of test bed development for the implementation of WEF goals and objectives. In this case, however, Gallego was called out on the carpet by citizens who were not too happy with her below the radar efforts to implement the WEF C40 goals and was forced to back track some.
The huge push to implement C40 and the ’15 minute’ city concepts on existing metropolitan areas (commonly read by dark blue forces) seems to be accelerating over the past months both here and around the world. I view many of these efforts are interim steps to restructure the cities before a more hard core implementation like what China (and London for that matter) is doing.
***
On Wednesday September 20th, the United Nations is expected to sign off on a ‘Declaration’ titled: ‘Political Declaration of the United Nations General Assembly High-level Meeting on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response.’
This was announced as a “silent procedure”, meaning that States not responding will be deemed supporters of the text. The document expresses a new policy pathway for managing populations when the World Health Organization (WHO), the health arm of the UN, declares a future viral variant to be a “public health emergency of international concern”. The WHO noted in 2019 that pandemics are rare and insignificant in terms of overall mortality over the last century. Since then, it decided that the 2019 old-normal population was simply oblivious to impending annihilation. The WHO and the entire UN system now consider pandemics an existential and imminent threat.
OBSERVATION - I see this as a parallel walk with the WHO, so is finalizing amendments to the pandemic treaty that involves 190 countries. The WHO is scheduled to meet in 2024 to approve those amendments and declare itself to be the sole global authority on health matters - capable of over ruling the US constitution.
Economy –
The Biden administration announced Monday that it has moved to shut down future oil, gas and mining activity on thousands of acres of New Mexico land for the next 50 years.
The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), a sub-agency of the Department of the Interior (DOI), issued the Monday proposal to block new oil, gas and mineral extraction activity on 4,000 acres of land in Sandoval County, New Mexico, according to a DOI press release. The proposal is motivated by the agency’s desire to safeguard tribal cultures and recreational activity in the area, and the policy would last for 50 years if finalized.
The county sourced more than 2 million barrels of oil and nearly 10 million metric cubic feet of natural gas in 2020, the year before President Joe Biden took office, according to data from DrillingEdge.
This action follows the withdraw over 13 million acres of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) from oil and gas leasing activity, designation of nearly 1 million acres in Arizona outside the Grand Canyon as a monument in August, making the uranium in that area effectively off-limits to future claims and BLM moving to ban future oil activity on 1.6 million acres of Colorado land earlier in August.
OBSERVATION - Biden’s deliberate efforts to choke exploration and development of oil/gas reserves as well as coal has accelerated this year. Federal leases across the country have been slashed. At the same time his administration is whining to oil companies about rising fuel costs and the impacts on inflation.
***
Economists are still giving varied views on the potential for and severity of a recession, now timed out to hit 2024. Views range from no recession, to a ‘soft landing’ to a hard crash. Economic data coming out seems to support the latter group, with inflation once again on the rise, pre-recessional layoffs and the crashing housing / loan markets
Morgan Stanley economists are eyeing next week’s potential downward GDP revision as an indicator that the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates further.
GDP estimates will likely be revised downward by -0.5% to -0.8%, according to Morgan Stanley’s forecast.
OBSERVATION - All kinds of data, all kinds of opinions. Rising inflation is pushing the fed to continue to raise rates, while contracting GDP pushes for no raise. The fed has painted itself into a corner with no good ways out.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Mayorkas just appointed liars Paul Kolbe , James Clapper and John Brennan to a new “Homeland Security Intelligence Experts Group”. All peddled Russia hoax and said Hunter’s laptop was Russia disinformation.
OBSERVATION - They are the face of some of the most creepy - and dangerous- elements of the deep state. This is added to this bogus “intelligence experts group” only sounds the alarm for trouble for Americans.
***
President Joe Biden will announce the Office of Gun Violence Prevention on Friday and the new office will be coordinated with Mike Bloomberg gun control proponents and others.
According to the Washington Post, “The new office will report up through Stefanie Feldman, the White House staff secretary and a longtime Biden policy aide who has worked on the firearms issue for years.”
Coordination in the office is expected between the “White House, the Community Justice Action Fund and Everytown for Gun Safety.”
OBSERVATION - Trying to institute gun control on a regulatory level and bypass congress and the constitution. If the govt is this desperate to disarm citizens now, just what do they have planned once we are disarmed?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Did the software that the F-35 relies upon get hacked? Green Hills Software produces the Integrity 178B Operating System that powers the F-35, F-22, F-16, and B-2. It also powers the Airbus A380. There are reports of concerns that it has been leaked leaked - resulting in a potential hack. .
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The CDC recently put out data that the wuhan jab only prevented death in one out of a million times. Specifically, “per million doses in 12-17-year-olds over 6 months, 0-1 deaths have been prevented.”
This is less than useless. The instances of ‘sudden’ deaths now associated with the jab make it far more dangerous to be ‘vaccinated ‘ than unvaccinated.
With these numbers, it is absurd for the CDC to continue to push the jab onto the young - except that it is likely due to another calling - a deliberate assault to kill or debilitate this age group.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Ray Epps has been charged with a single misdemeanor for J6 - Disruptive or Disorderly Conduct.
OBSERVATION - The heat was on, so they gave Epps a strongly worded slap on the wrist. An attempted fig leaf to cover his involvement.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Though it was thought to be a “joke”, the WSJ reports that biden said “depleting the SPR is on the table.
China –
The recent, substantial Chinese air/naval exercises last week are bring recognized as another dry run towards a blockade of Taiwan.
A blockaide is the most likely course of action by China against Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Russian weakness in Armenia is casting shadows on other nations with a mutual defense treaties / agreements. Russia has lot a lot of face in this conflict and it will hurt them on a global scale. Who wants to team up with Russia, who’ll knife them in the back when the going gets rough.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Zelensky spoke before the UN yesterday, calling for more money and support for the Ukraine war effort. Also called for increased climate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 24 Shahed drones overnight
News on the various fronts slow. Some nuggets noted below.
Tokmak Axis -.
OSINT analysts indicate that Ukraine is well entrenched in and expanding control over Russian defensive lines south, east and west of Robotyne. Expansion of these zones of penetration is expected to free up Ukraine armor to exploit.
Kherson Axis -
The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the headquarters of the 7th Airborne Division near Kherson on September 19. Daily planning was taking place at the time of the attack, was hit and a sizable number of officers were killed/wounded.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian Military intelligence says 2 planes and a helicopter were damaged at Chkalovsky airfield near Moscow as result of saboteur attack.
Oil depot in Sochi was attacked with a drone.
OUTLOOK –
No significant changes in trends and activities.
Iran –
Days after Biden bypassed the congress to approve a $6-billion ransom payment to Iran, the Mullah regime has taken another Western national hostage as part of its ongoing ‘hostage diplomacy,’ media reports say.
On Saturday, Iran’s Islamic Guard (IRGC) disclosed that it has taken yet another Westerner in its custody, less than a week after Biden White House agreed to pay $6 billion for the release of 5 U.S. hostages. The media reports did not specify if the captive is a U.S. or a European national.
OBSERVATION - Ive said it once, I’ve said it dozens of times here. Iran (and most of islam) respect one thing - strength. They see us as a wet noodle and the payment of now around 14 BILLION dollars a big flag of that weakness. They will keep this game up for as long as they can extort ransom money on this global scale.
Syria -
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad will travel to China later this week for his first visit to the country since a 12-year conflict that began over a U.S. attempt to overthrow the government in Damascus.
OBSERVATION - An attempt to increase ties as well as seeking more assistance to fill the gap that Russia’s pull back of support in response to the Ukraine war has created. ISIS on the rise and economic protest in the south, combined with Turkish involvement in the north and Irans demands to prepare bases for its attack on Israel in exchange for its support have created a serious situation for the Assad regime to maintain power. Of course China will step in if it sees a bargain.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Nagorno Karabakh-an agreement has reportedly been reached to stop the fighting. Nagorno Karabakh authorities have agreed to disband their armed forces and negotiate the “reintegration” of the region into Azerbaijan. This would mean that Armenian self-rule effectively ends.
Azerbaijani MoD confirms Armenia-backed separatist government in Karabakh has surrendered:
1. Formations of the armed forces of Armenia and illegal Armenian armed formations located in the Karabakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan lay down their arms, leave combat positions and military posts and completely disarm. Units of the Armenian armed forces are leaving the territory of Azerbaijan, illegal Armenian armed formations are being disbanded;
2. At the same time, all weapons and heavy equipment are surrendered;
3. The implementation of the above processes is ensured in coordination with the Russian peacekeeping contingent
Crowds are gathering in Yerevan, Armenia. People are calling for the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Armenian pro-Russian elements are calling for a coup against his government. This following his proclamation that Armenia would not defend Nagorno Karabakh.
OBSERVATION - For those needing a geography fix, the link below is to a map that depicts the region. Red territory is the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6axjrsXQAAikw-?format=jpg&name=medium
Very fast war with quick surrender. Armenia had few other choices since Russia was not coming to their aid and they were outnumbered and out gunned in the fight. As this sorts itself out, the next question is will Azeri continue aggression against Armenia proper.
To add insult to injury, a Russian military base was completely destroyed by Azerbaijani shelling today in the Karabakh region. All units of the Russian Peacekeeping force have reportedly withdrawn to their main base in Khojaly airport. Clear evidence of Russian backing out of its defense / peacekeeping agreement and the extreme confidence of the Azeri forces to do what they want without fear of Russian reprisals. A clear slap to the Russian’s face.
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Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalist powers that be are pushing a global ‘replacement’ effort targeting the predominantly ethnic white regions with immigrants from the ME and Africa. The current focal point is the island of Lampedusa, Italy. In the past few days over 18,000 immigrants of various ethnic groups have swarmed the island, now outnumbering the residents by a 3 : 1 margin. Many of the areas of the island have been taken over by these immigrants.
OBSERVATION - The United Nations and European Union want to resettle them on the mainland. The past year have shown these migrants have created chaos in European nations, causing crime and other violence to skyrocket. The surge in illegals across the US southern border is just another front by these same globalists to upset western civilization via crime, violence and political upheaval.
This is the crux of the “replacement” (conspiracy) theory - following again a standard create chaos plan by leftists - in this case globalists / WEF elites. It also follows as an ‘application’ of the WEFs world without borders vision.
***
Over the objections of 11 nations, the United Nations General Assembly president today approved a declaration on pandemic prevention that seeks to create a global pandemic authority. Critics said the declaration supports COVID-19-style restrictions, including “closing schools and disproportionately throwing women out of work and into poverty.”
In a statement, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “If COVID-19 taught us nothing else, it’s that when health is at risk, everything is at risk.” He linked the PPPR to the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), saying world leaders should “show they have learned the painful lessons of the pandemic.”
OBSERVATION - This is hand in hand with the WHOs power grab. Critics are correct in pointing out the vagueness of the criterial for declaring a pandemic ‘emergency’, and so much over the years has been broad brushed as being a ‘health’ matter, such as poverty and most notably gun violence. The plan endorses global warming goals (again under the banner of health) and would further push digital passport / vaccine efforts that will likely merge into a global system that includes your social credit score and a global digital currency of some sort.
The elites saw how easy it was to lead the sheeple into giving up their rights from wuhan, and believe lightening can strike twice.
***
Reminder, on June 29th, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that 57 firms have been certified to utilize its new instant payments system called “FedNow.” The system has been working via 35 banks. Major banks, such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, are two of the early adopters, as is the U.S. Treasury.
Understand, for now, FedNow is NOT a CBDC. It’s just a payment gateway. But now, it is establishing the early infrastructure necessary for CBDCs. Digital currency is completely programable.
OBSERVATION - Movement continues, with the increasing potential that 2024 may see the breakout of true digital currency/CBDC.
Economy –
More bad news on the financial front.
The average interest rate rose to the highest since 2011. The newly issued Treasury securities to fund the new deficits and to replace maturing securities come with higher interest rates than the securities issued years ago that are now maturing and need to be replaced.
So the average interest rate paid on all interest-bearing Treasury securities rose to 2.92% at the end of August, according to the Treasury Department, the highest average rate since 2011. But wait… since 2011, the debt has more than doubled – it surged by 120% since September 2011
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted this refinancing disaster in previous posts, and more data is coming out to clarify the impending train wreck. Corporations taking on higher interest on debts - during a recession - is never good news for the economy as a whole.
***
Housing starts tumbled 11.3% last month to an annual rate of 1.28 million units, according to new Commerce Department data released Tuesday. That is well below Refinitiv economists’ forecast for a pace of 1.44 million units.
Applications to build – which measures future construction – saw an uptick in August, climbing 6.9% over the course of the month to an annualized rate of 1.54 million units. Compared with the same time last year, building permits are down about 2.7%.
OBSERVATION - Again, many have looked to the housing sector to pull the nation out of past recessions. The current crash doesn’t show any signs of reversing any time soon. If it wasn’t bad enough that prices alone are unaffordable to the majority of Americans, the associated mortgage rates make affordability even worse.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
A new “Homeland Security Intelligence Experts Group” – including signees to the debunked Hunter Biden laptop “Russian disinformation” letter – has been created to provide the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with information it can use to target its envisioned “threat landscape” of Americans.
The new group’s members will cast a wide net, infiltrating even campuses and tribal groups, in search of “actionable intelligence,” DHS Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas said Tuesday, in a press release announcing creation of the new spy network:
“The security of the American people depends on our capacity to collect, generate, and disseminate actionable intelligence to our federal, state, local, territorial, tribal, campus, and private sector partners.”
The group of “experts” will target perceived “violent extremist ideologies” and “domestic violent extremists,” the release notes.
OBSERVATION - Key words that should cause great concern are “actionable intelligence” - i.e. calls for immediate arrest. As noted yesterday, with James Clapper, Paul Kolbe, and John Brennan being named to this ‘Experts Group.’, the level of concern rises into the red zone. We’ve had years of the alpha beta agencies targeting nearly half of the US population under the various titles as white supremeicists, domestic terrorists, homophobs/transphobes, etc - this becomes essentially a cell to further target individuals to protect the leftist agenda. These are cold war era thugs who have demonstrate that they will use Soviet tactics to suppress opposition.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The pilot of a $100 million F-35 fighter jet ejected from the plane, stating that bad weather caused him to lose control. It seems he bailed out before activating the tracking system. A voice on a Charleston County Emergency Medical Services call reported that the pilot couldn’t pinpoint where the plane crashed, attributing it to the weather. The pilot has since been discharged. Military officials haven’t disclosed the exact reason for the quick exit, simply labeling it as a “malfunction.
According to Doppler Radar data, at approximately 5:36 PM Eastern Standard Time, heavy thunderstorms were passing in the area at the time the announcement was made regarding the missing F-35.
OBSERVATION - The ‘weather’ excuse is the first to come out explaining the downing of the F-35. Many do not consider it to be credible even if bad weather was in the vicinity. It looks to be a smokescreen for what ever the real reason was for the loss.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
As alpha-gal syndrome (AGS), a tick-borne disease that triggers an allergic reaction to red meat, sees a steep rise in cases, eyebrows are being raised over a coincidental alignment with research funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
In 2021, the number of positive test results for AGS surged by 41.3% compared to 2017, and testing for alpha-gal peaked at 66,106 persons that year.
The same year, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation announced a significant grant of $1,469,352 toward research into the Rhipicephalus microplus (“Asian blue”) tick. This tick is known to cause (carry) AGS, as verified by a publication in the ImmunoTargets and Therapy journal found in the U.S. National Library of Medicine (NLM).
OBSERVATION - Linkage of Gates to this virus has been on the interwebs for a while. Recent information is reinforcing the link and if we factor in Gates’ activities surrounding wuhan and other diseases, the covering of conspiracy theory gets remarkably thin. Gates admittedly is a eugenicist and a supporter of global population reduction. A frequent flyer to Epstine’s fantasy island to boot there is a dark, deep streak of evil in him that makes the possibly of being involved in actually working to spread AGS a greater possibility.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Floor votes failed on a Continuing Resolution (CR) and the House GOP’s defense spending bill when five Freedom Caucus Republicans crossed the aisle to join Democrats voting against the bills.
Democrats spreading to the MSM that a shutdown is going to happen since none will cross the isle to support any Republican bill.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden launches “American Climate Corps” to mobilize young people for the “frontlines of clean energy and climate resilience.”
This action may well be illegal given that there is no funding from or approval of Congress (it rejected a bill to create a similar organization).
Illegal Immigration –
An unprecedented surge of 4,000 migrants streamed across the US border with Mexico into Eagle Pass, Texas, on Wednesday — forcing the overwhelmed city to declare a state of emergency. Over the past few day over 11,000 have poured across the border into this small community.
Mayor Rolando Salinas said a separate 2,500-person mob crossed the border into the city illegally Monday, on top of approximately 7,200 other illegal crossers apprehended in the previous week.
Salinas said the new mob, many of them from Venezuela, has overrun Mission Border Hope, the only migrant shelter in the border city.
“One of the situations is that a lot of these [migrants], they’re single males and they don’t want to listen to instructions and they’re leaving the facility,” the mayor said.
“Not all of these people come in peace.”
OBSERVATION - Mayor Salinas notes clearly that the vast majority of these illegals are young, single males and they are up to no good. Looting and violence are the way of the regions they are coming from - especially in this surge Venezuela.
IN RELATED - Texas installed razor wire in Eagle Pass to stop illegal crossings. A few days ago the Biden Admin CUT that wire, opening the floodgates to illegal immigrants. The TX governor announced that he would immediately deploy more Texas National Guard to repel illegal crossings & install more razor wire.
IN MORE RELATED - The Biden administration on Wednesday offered nearly half-a-million Venezuelan migrants in the U.S. the ability to live and work in the country legally, approving a longstanding request from cities struggling to house asylum-seekers.
The Department of Homeland Security expanded, or redesignated, the Temporary Protected Status program for Venezuelan migrants, allowing recent arrivals to apply for the deportation protections and work permits offered by the policy. CBS News first reported the move earlier Wednesday.
Previously, only Venezuelans who arrived in the U.S. before March 2021 qualified for TPS, a program created by Congress in 1990 to offer a temporary safe haven to migrants from countries facing humanitarian crises, such as an armed conflict or a natural disaster.
By redesignating Venezuela’s TPS program, the U.S. is rendering the record number of Venezuelans who have reached the U.S. over the past two years eligible for the status. An estimated 472,000 additional Venezuelans are expected to qualify for TPS, which has already allowed about 242,000 migrants from that country to obtain the status, according to DHS figures. Venezuelans who reached the U.S. after the end of July will not qualify for TPS.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuelan-migrants-thousands-legal-status-work-permits-u-s/
FURTHER OBSERVATION - Some of the recent reports of significant crimes committed by illegals identify specifically Venezuelans as the culprits. This is nothing but a back door amnesty effort. There must also be some loopholes given the recent days flood of principally Venezuelans entering at Eagle Pass TX.
China –
Sunac China Holdings, an investment holding company which engages in the development, management, and investing in residential and commercial properties has file for bankruptcy protection in the United States.
OBSERVATION - These Chinese corporations are hindered from doing the same in China, and are filing bankruptcy for operations here in the US. They are the tip of the chinese economic iceberg.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Russia has had a lot of poor PR / propaganda efforts at the UN this week.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched two waves of cruise missiles against targets in western ukraine / Lviv and Kyiv. In Kyiv alone, 20 missiles / drones were shot down.
Russians in Crimea had a very bad day on the receiving end of Ukranian drones and missiles. Local media report that Crimea has suffered the most massive drone attack of all time. Residents of Yevpatoriya, Dzhankoi, Balaklava, Sevastopol, Saky, Novofedorivka and other cities report the sounds of work of air defense. Details of the strikes below.
Significant changes are also being noted in the Tokmok fight around Verbove.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian forces efforts to widen their breach of the lines for the past several weeks in the vicinity of Verbone may have reached a success and action point. Ukrainian forces have brought heavy equipment (Strykers and Marders) beyond the anti-vehicle ditch and the dragons teeth for the first time. This indicates that Ukraine believes the breach is secure enough to push through a potential choke point - now neutralized - and into the rear area of the defensive line. This will bring increased firepower to bear for Ukraine.
Crimean front —
Smoke appears to be coming out from the site in Verkhnosadove near north of Sevastopol where located is the protected command post & special receiving radio center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Explosions and Russian air defenses activity was reported in the area of Belbek Air Base, Inkerman, Kacha Air Base and Sevastopol.
Local news reporting that all Russian subs docked at Sevastopol have left the harbor .
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine’s strategic efforts against Russian facilities in Crimea has been almost masterful. If you’ve been following, Ukraine has spent a couple of weeks blinding Russian radar eyes in the greater Sevastopol area, neutralizing a couple S400 system, early warning radars, destroying other ADA systems. This resulted in the hard hitting attacks overnight.
Russia had long considered its facilities safe from Ukraine strikes because for a while it didn’t have the assets to strike that far. This scenario is no longer as facilities across the peninsula have been demonstrated to be vulnerable. The Russian naval base, now under air and drone (sea and air) attacks.
At the same time, Ukraine drone attacks against Moscow have dropped off, but have served their purpose. It forced Russia to redeploy air defense assets now desperately needed in Crimea to protect the capitol. Russia have very few systems left to pull - mostly from eastern military districts that are even now understrength in ADA assets. And in the cast of the S400 systems losses - virtually irreplaceable. .
All this is battlefield preparation as Ukraine’s offensive moves south. The appearances of Ukrainian armor and tanks across the defensive line at Verbove, is probably causing seismic shock waves across Russian commanders. Russia has been stripping defensive positions across the front and laterally shifting them to the Tokmok axis. Thinning of defenses is one of the major reasons Ukraine’s offensive in the Bakhmut region has accelerated. Russia moved the remnants of reportedly one of its better divisions, the 76th GAAD to the Tokmok region, leaving understrength and poorly lead units to defend. Ukraine is pressing the Kherson axis with threats of a potential significant river crossing operation that could slam into Russia’s left flank and support the Tokmok axis. Russian have pulled a lot of forces out of the Kherson region to support defense of Tokmok. Russian is flat out running out of units to move to stop any breakout with out creating conditions for a breakout in another sector.
There are growing, persistent rumors that putin is almost desperate to get some kind of ceasefire / peace negotiations started. Perhaps he and his generals see that a general collapse of the Russian defensive lines in imminent and he doesn’t have the forces to do anything about it.
As always, the current situation is dynamic and can change quickly at any minute.
Europe / NATO General –
Norway to ban entry of cars with Russian license plates. This is the last Schengen country to allow cars registered in the Russian Federation to enter.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Some isolated fighting continues in the disputed region.
Two deputy commanders of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the region were killed as a result of shelling in Karabakh.
The Kremlin reported that Putin spoke on the phone with Azerbaijani President Aliyev,
Iran president says Tehran will not allow the slightest change in the geopolitics of the Caucasus region. On recent conflict, he said, “The tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not accepted at all. The issue can be resolved through dialogue”
The Azerbaijani attack in Nagorno-Karabakh left at least 200 dead and more than 400 wounded. The number of wounded civilians exceeds 40, including 13 children. At the moment, the death of 10 civilians has been confirmed, 5 of them are children - Ombudsman of Nagorno-Karabakh Gegham Stepanyan
OBSERVATION - Looks like the situation is working down. Armenia is in turmoil and the 150,000 Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region are in limbo, many trying to escape to Armenia. Huge foreign policy disaster for Russia
Kinda brief today, a lot on my agenda.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The UN in addition to pushing a global, tyrannical medical / “pandemic” rules has been busy on the global warming scene this past week.
The 2023 SDG Summit took place on 18-19 September 2023 in New York. It marked the beginning of a new phase of accelerated progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals with high-level political guidance on transformative and accelerated actions leading up to 2030.
During the “2023 SDG Summit”, global leaders “adopted a sweeping Political Declaration” in which they committed themselves to achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals within the next 7 years.
The document states “urgent need to take the actions necessary to reverse declines and accelerate progress to achieve the 2030 Agenda and implement the SDGs.”
OBSERVATION - The multipronged globalist agenda is reaching a tipping point. The “acceleration” processes look a lot like the declaration of a global “emergency” like wuhan that can be forced on nations (or created by nations) to dictatorially enforce climate change mandates. These range from the 15 minute city concepts, to the cold turkey removal of fossil fuels and the destruction of modern agriculture.
Economy –
Petroleum industry analysts note that OPEC’s supply cuts have pushed the market into a deficit, which increased their 12-month oil forecast from $93 to $100 per barrel, with prices likely remaining between $80 and $105 through 2025.
OBSERVATION - Equates to continued high prices / inflation for a long time.
***
Water levels along the Mississippi River are plummeting for the second year in a row after this summer’s blistering heat and low rainfall triggered extreme drought across parts of the Central US.
The drought comes as a critical harvest season approaches and farmers across the Midwest are concerned about water supply and barge deliveries. Officials and residents along the river worry about the widespread impacts another decline could bring.
Every water level gauge along a nearly 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi from the Ohio River to Jackson, Mississippi, is at or below the low-water threshold, according data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and US Geological Survey.
The same stretch of the river experienced record-low water levels last year in October, which brought major impacts on farming communities and barge traffic during the critical harvest period, where staple Midwestern crops including soybeans, corn and wheat are transported down the river.
OBSERVATION - What is needed is precipitation in the Mississippi watershed. All eyes on El Nino and if it will deliver. Short term - higher shipping prices as barges will not be able to go fully loaded.
***
Its Friday and the UAW has vowed to expand its strike against the Big 3 automakers tomorrow unless there are signs of significant progress toward an agreement. More employees at factories are being given temporary layoff notices, forcing them to live off the $500/week union strike pension - a pension that will come under increasing stress as both the length and scope of the strike increases.
Meanwhile, Tesla continues on unscathed. The UAW have failed in their unionizing attempts in the past, but now reading the tea leaves may be refocusing on another push.
OBSERVATION - Impacts to the greater economy have yet to fully form, after only one week of currently limited, directed strikes. It will start to amplify if the strikes move to include more production plants, placing more workers on shaky economic grounds.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Almost three-quarters of Americans – 72 percent – admit to being concerned that the United States is becoming a “police state” engaging in mass surveillance, censorship, ideological indoctrination, and the targeting of political opponents, according to a recent survey from Rasmussen Reports. Of those concerned, 46 percent told pollsters that they were “very concerned” that the state is becoming tyrannical, with 26 percent answering “somewhat concerned.” Only 23 percent of Americans said they were not concerned, with less than one in ten Americans answering “not at all concerned.”
OBSERVATION - One sees all the time here that the apparatus for a police state is being established. Ranging from identification of hostiles (so called Christian nationalists, white racists, homophobes, etc), the creation of intelligence collection methods and fusion cell type organizations all across the alphabet govt departments and the weaponizing of these agencies (millions spent for guns, ammo and kit). All point to the probability that govt is planning to wage war on its citizens.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Gen. Charles Brown was just confirmed as the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the highest ranking military officer His priority? Diversity in military promotions even if those troops need “additional training”
OBSERVATION - This dude is coming on to be a worse ‘leader’ than Milley. He also wants to eliminate nearly 50% of the white fighter pilots in order to inject ‘diversity’ to those positions. Huge disaster in the making and guaranteed even lower recruiting numbers. Why join the military when the top dog is an over the top racist.
POLITICAL FRONT –
AG Garland faced cross examination in the House. Among other things, Garland told members of the committee that he didn’t know anything about:
Whether there were federal agents or sources at the January 6 riot
Why Ray Epps was charged with misdemeanors for his role in the J6 riot while grandmas were sent away on felony charges
Whether he had contact with the FBI regarding the Hunter Biden case
Targeting parents at school board meetings.
Over and over again, under questioning from House Republicans, Garland answered with some variation of “I don’t know” or “I can’t answer that question.”
OBSERVATION - Garland knows that the committee is essentially toothless. The DoJ will not pursue any investigations into Garland’s perjury or his departments illegal and anti-American behavior. He faces no threat of a viable impeachment. The only benefit is watching republicans rake him over the coals.
Biden / Harris Watch –
A lot of feed back on how he was a dotard, confusing speeches and actions in public An overall embarrassment to the US/
Illegal Immigration –
TX replaced the concertina wire barrier that border patrol agents cut open to let thousands of illegals enter the nation.
OBSERVATION - At what point will TX station TX Rangers on these sections of border to arrest Border Patrol or other fed agents if they try this again. This could create a very serious standoff of States rights vs govt lawlessness.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Excellent summary of the disaster the Ukraine war has wrought on Russian military leadership and operations.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20230922.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has shifted its targeting from grain facilities to attacking Ukrainian power grid. Ukrainian Air Defenses shot down -36 of 43 X-101/Kh-55 Cruise Missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine yesterday. Also of note is the shift from using the Shahed drones to more deadly cruise missiles.
The hits keep coming as the Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ in Russian-occupied Sevastopol is no more. This supposed to be the best protected building in all of Crimea. According to unofficial data from the Russians, at least 10 people died after the attack. They say that missile hit right during a meeting of high-ranking officers.
Crimean front —
Explosions were also reported at military unit in Bakhchisaray, and reports of explosions from other districts of Crimea.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine and the Navy launched a large-scale fire attack on the Saki military airfield in occupied Crimea. There were at least 12 combat aircraft (Su-24 and Su-30) and Pantsyr MANPADS at the airfield. There was also a training base for Mojaher UAV operators. These are the drones used by the Russians to coordinate their own air attacks and as a combat strike drone. A considerable number of jet fighter / bombers were damaged or destroyed.
OUTLOOK –
Still watching conditions on the Tokmok Axis to see if Russia has an effective counter to the reinforcement of Ukraine infantry by armored vehicles that have passed through the gap in the “dragons teeth’ portion of the defenses.
Ukraine continues to hammer Crimea and in particular critical Russian facilities in and around Sevastopol. Striking this infrastructure and command is likely causing many generals to circle the wagons and by doing so pulling needed resources and support from the front lines.
The anticipated Russian winter missile campaign against the Ukrainian power grid has commenced. Russia threw a lot of X-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles against targets with only a very limited success.
Poland –
Kerfuffle over continued Polish aid to Ukraine.
You're NOT paranoid if it's really happening... and yeah, it's really happening.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Keep this on your radars as these are key efforts by the WEF/globalists:
* Digital currency
* Digital ID/passports
* Global warming related efforts to kill fossil fuels
* Stripping parents of their rights to their children
* Expanding ‘normalization’ of sexual perversion
* Undermining of global economic by multiple means
* Global population replacement / migration
* Elimination of the rights of free speech
* Elimination of private ownership of all weapons
* Forcing citizens into 15 minute cities
* Global medical tyranny
This is just a short list.
You will see these themes throughout many of the other elements here - as the globalist efforts are currently on a progressive nature - eating the elephant one bite at a time - via indoctrinated and funded lackeys. The scenario is being crafted for a major ‘emergency’ (or emergencies) that permits global consolidation of power from which their global goals can be forced on the world. We can’t lose sight that they are fixed on a long term effort that is now coming to fruition.
Economy –
The Federal Reserve left the main U.S. interest rate unchanged Wednesday, waiting to see if its historic series of rate hikes over the last 18 months gets inflation under control.
The central bank kept its main policy rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, citing an easing of economic conditions while also acknowledging that inflation is still higher than its 2% target.
OBSERVATION - I don’t know how I missed this one. But economic news of inflation on the rise and jobs growth reversal and an impending recession (though they won’t admit that) may justify them to increase the rate again when they meet in October.
***
The president of the United Auto Workers said Friday the union will expand its strike against major automakers by walking out of 38 General Motors and Stellantis plants in 20 states.
There is also news out of a leaked plan by the UAW to wage the strike for an extended period to push for full capitulation by the automakers to their demands. Mixed in the plan is to pit one automaker against the other to further leverage demands.
biden is expected to show up on the picket lines Tuesday to support the union’s demands. Trump due on Wednesday.
OBSERVATION - The overt support of the strike by biden and the union plans to wage a long duration effort strongly suggest that this is also an effort to send the US economy into a steeper tailspin. I saw estimates that over time this could trigger a loss of something like 3 billion dollars a day to the economy in general. Stacked on top of a more likely recession and other current economic woes this could be devastating.
***
Time is running out for a short term CR to kick the FY2024 funding decisions down the road - congressional staffers getting pre loaded ‘Christmas bonus’ payments to bridge the wage loss. Our military won’t get paid, but a host of others will.
OBSERVATION - This will be chaotic, but perhaps not as chaotic as the 0bama shutdown was. I don’t expect biden to try to close down memorials and parks like 0bama did, but then who really is pulling his strings.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
US President Joe Biden has announced setting up a new office to prevent gun violence, under the leadership of Vice President Kamala Harris, as the pair prepare for next year’s presidential race. The federal office would be dedicated towards finding solutions and supporting communities suffering from shooting incidents. Biden announced it from the White House Rose Garden, alongside lawmakers and families of gun violence victims.
OBSERVATION - Gun control will not pass thru the current congress, so expect this ‘commission’ to seek backdoor means to inflict gun control and gun registration on the public. Harris summed the the communist manifesto for gun control -
“We know true freedom is not possible if people are not safe,”
We know the plan reality is give up your freedoms in order to be ‘safe’.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More questions than answers regarding the loss of a F-35 a few days ago.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
CDC claims to be trying to restore public confidence, but are failing epically with their new calls for masking and new ‘jabs’ for ages 6 months and above.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In a shocking turn around, Gavin Newsom vetoed the bill that would’ve taken children from parents who don’t affirm a child’s gender.
OBSERVATION - Many believe that he is planning on running for President in the near future (in spite of his words to the contrary) and this that alone would’ve cost him votes because moms (who vote predominantly democrat) don’t play when it comes to their kids. There doesn’t seem to be any other reason for vetoing a bill he so strongly pushed for this year.
***
Pressure is beginning to build for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) to resign from office after federal prosecutors indicted him on multiple charges related to alleged corruption. He and his wife received hundreds of thousands of dollars - and even gold bars - for influence peddling. He’s been indicted before, but these charges may well be serous enough to stick. Question is - why is the swamp tossing him under the bus at this time?
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris failed to end the border crisis, so he picks her to end gun violence.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden makes border history with highest illegal crossing attempts and paroles ever recorded in a month: 304,162.
OBSERVATION - These are the kinds of records we really don’t need.
***
biden opening up on his plan for the border crisis:
-Fast track processing at the US border
-Expand legal pathways for citizenship
-Increase the total number of refugees
-Send money to help sanctuary cities
-Speed up work-permits for illegals
OBSERVATION - One can no longer call the Replacement theory “comspiracy”, this is a deliberate move to flood illegals into the country and try to fold them into the electorate where they are likely to vote democrat as well as form a body pool to literally man the extra guns the fed gov has been stockpiling.
***
The Biden administration recently announced plans to send an additional 800 U.S. military members to the southern border to assist with processing migrants but not to aid law enforcement efforts.
OBSERVATION - I really don’t see that much ‘processing’ being done. Mostly the illegals are being dumped on the streets of the US. And with record numbers of illegals (300,000+ per month), 800 individuals are just a drop in the bucket.
***
The City of Santa Ana is considering whether or not to give non-citizens 18 or older the right to vote in municipal elections in the wake of a state court ruling finding a similar measure in San Francisco to be legal.
The official agenda item, in which the council considered “options to place the issue of noncitizen voting in city council and mayoral elections on the 2024 ballot,” would be a significant expansion past San Francisco’s measure, which expands voting to noncitizens, including undocumented immigrants, for school board elections only.
OBSERVATION - The progressive communists are trying to make this effort similar to the ‘taxation without representation’ cry of the revolutionary war. Except that the colonists were viewed as citizens of Britain and not illegal immigrants. This is the progressive attempt of replacement ‘conspiracy’ at a local level, attacking our country one city at a time.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian high command likely shaken from the recent losses of key senior officers and generals in the Ukraine war.
Economic Impact –
Russia plans a huge hike in defense spending next year, swelling to 6% of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.
Moscow doubled its target for defense spending in 2023 to more than $100 billion, Reuters reported exclusively in August, as the costs of the war in Ukraine spiral and place growing strain on Moscow’s finances.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
biden has reportedly said that a limited number of ATACMS missiles will soon be delivered to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Same old, same old. Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 15 Shahed drones. The main focus of attack reportedly was the Zaporizhzia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The big news this morning was yesterdays missile strike taking out the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol. High on the list are reports of Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet being one of the Russians killed.
Among severely wounded include, Col. Gen. Alexander Romanchuk and Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsekov, with at least 9 dead and 16 injured among Russian military personnel. Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is occurring.
The attack caught them during a meeting that put them together along with staff and aids.
Another Russia command post was obliterated as well. The HQ for the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army was destroyed in Melitopol by a HIMARS GMLRS strike wounding its commander, possibly Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin, and killing or injuring other high-ranking staff. These commanders are leading the defense of southern Ukraine.
Tokmak Axis -.
More unconfirmed reports that a breakthrough is developing in the Verbove region. In the past few days, Ukraine has passed armor through the ‘dragons teeth’ barriers and deep behind the defensive lines - so far with out an effective Russian response. These vehicles are now providing addition, effective direct firepower on Russia positions, enabling quicker Ukrainian movements to seize them.
Bakhmut Axis -
Recent Russian withdrawals from the south of Bakhmut has them setting up along the N-S rail line that also passes through the middle of Bakhmut. Ukraine is in an operational pause as it consolidates and redirects the forces to eventually breach the line and continue driving Russia to the east while expanding the encirclement of Bakhmut on the south side.
Crimean front —
Locals report explosions in Sevastopol again. A plume of smoke is visible. The air raid sirens sound also. Some suspect an ammo dump was hit.
OUTLOOK –
I thought I’d quickly summarize some of the key Ukraine’s deep attack strategy action in Crimea since 23 August, in chronological order.
- strike on 1 S400 battery
- strike destroying 1 Kilo, 1 LST, 1 S400 battery
-strike on fleet command post
-strike on Saki Airbase
-strike on Fleet HQ.
The action has not given Russia any time for a breather or to reconfigure any kind of effective response. The Russian leadership may be in a state of denial after all these years (since 2014) to think they were out of reach of Ukrainian attacks. This is where the discussion of ATACMS come in big. The British/French (and eventually German) cruise missiles can range over Crimea-they are still vulnerable to air defense actions by the Russian. The ATACMS is a ballistic missile - a backdoor ‘hypersonic’ system though the US doesn’t designate it as such. Very very strong against Russian ADA systems, providing a substantially higher number of missiles penetrating defenses than the cruise missiles. Their range places all Crimea in range, as well as key facilities in Russia proper.
Ukrainian employment may be similar to how they got the cruise missiles up and running. Hit a few closer, though important targets, then break out as they have on key deeper targets. I’ll bet my bars that the Kerch Bridge will be the ultimate target for ATACMS because the ballistic transjectory will take them well above intervening Russian air defense assets forcing a much more difficult intercept of terminal mode warheads. Ukraine may well flood the zone with drones and cruise missiles to insure penetration. The missiles have a big enough warhead to put the bridge out of business once and for all and thus isolate Crimea from substantial logistical support and severely cripple support to the southern front. Ukrainian efforts in the south are focusing on splitting the so called ‘land bridge’ from the east, further damaging Russian efforts. This will leave the Russian forces out of ammo, fuel and troop / armor replacements.
I’m expecting to see ATACMS in combat no sooner than a month from now, as the logistical wheels move slowly.
Finally, the hit on the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol is devastating for forces facing the Ukraine offensive in the south, especially along the Tokmok axis. You just don’t bounce back from losing that level of general officers and staff in the middle of one of the most critical battles to date. This is going to cause confusion on the front lines as new chains of command are reestablished, inducing a limited ‘freeze’ in response to Ukrainian operations. Lower level officers will be forced to organize defense of much larger elements and face the logistical chaos that currently characterizes the Russian army. Lack of senior level leadership to divide up logistical support will create competition for resources that has plagued them since almost day one.
The hit has also had to have shaken the Kremlin - Ukraine has been hammering key command centers and Russia has been losing senior officers at a rate not seen since early in the war. Ukraine has stripped them of many of the options available and none of the remaining options are looking good for the Russians.
I see more disjointed operations by Russia while Ukraine continues its program of surgical strikes against key Russian targets, both tactically as well as deep.
Israel –
The IDF on Friday evening struck three military posts belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip. The strikes came hours after incendiary balloons fired by Gaza-based terrorists towards southern Israel sparked a fire near the border.
OBSERVATION - Though relatively uncommented on over the past weeks, Israel has been dealing a lot with Hamas supported terror attacks coming out of Gaza and the Jenin refugee ‘camps’. Now in the dry season, the fire ballon season is again on the rise and causing further friction.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
The Azeri army is progressively securing the N-K territory as Armenian units surrender and exit the area.
Large protests continue in the capitol of Armenia against the capitulation to Azeri demands.
The purpose of 'processing' is to give documentation to illegals so they're not 'undocumented'.
What does that mean? It means the cartels hold the monopoly on selling US citizenship.
If a person tries to go around the cartels by flying directly from China to LA RATHER than walking across the river AND paying the cartels $30,000 - they won't be 'documented'. Processing is a favor to the cartels. It secures their brand as the only way to US citizenship.
Events in the US are at such a perverse level that it makes it hard to peruse the interwebs. It seems that all the safety mechanisms have been removed and the country and world are streaming at high speed to a train wreck of massive proportions.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The U.S. Treasury Department this week announced its “Principles for Net Zero Financing & Investment,” which pushes banks, insurance companies, and asset managers to unite behind U.N. climate goals.
The principles, issued on Sept. 19, state that “Treasury and the Biden-Harris Administration welcome robust net-zero commitments made by financial institutions. Treasury hopes financial institutions will use the Principles to support the implementation of their commitments.”
According to a statement by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the principles “establish that financial institution net-zero commitments should be in line with limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. They affirm that financial institutions that have made these commitments should develop transition plans with clear practices, targets, and metrics.”
These principles, which the Treasury Department says are “voluntary,” direct banks, insurance companies and asset managers to focus particularly on “Scope 3” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scope 3 entails those emissions from a company’s customers and clients.
Mr. Skrmetti recently led a coalition of 22 state attorneys general, who penned a letter to members of the Net Zero Financial Service Providers Alliance (NZFSPA), one of several U.N.-sponsored net zero clubs.
The letter stated: “both federal and state law broadly prohibit business competitors from engaging in concerted action in restraint of trade or commerce. Accordingly, collective agreements to ‘restrict production, sales, or output’ are almost always illegal.”
Robert Bork, Jr., president of the Antitrust Education Project, also voiced his concerns.
“This U.S. Treasury document encourages the network of powerful investment companies and NGOs to violate antitrust law with government support. It encourages a restraint of trade, a form of collusion outlawed by the Sherman Antitrust Act,” Mr. Bork told The Epoch Times.
OBSERVATION - With public blowback from ESG mandates in the private sector, now the push is increasing from the govt. Of course, these mandates follow WEF guidances. Follow the money. The private/govt collusion on global warming seeks to worm its way around congressional oversight and laws by having the private sector do the dirty work. I’ve seen this in many other sectors as well, with govt urging companies implementing woke policies and reaping the consequences thereof.
***
Bill Gates has been all over the map this week. On Thursday, Gates made a sudden U-turn on his climate doom narrative and now expects “No temperate country is going to become uninhabitable.”
This follows his pronouncement of the biggest cause of global warming -
“Of all the climate areas, the one that people are probably least aware of is all the fertilizer and cows, and that’s a challenge,” Gates said, as reported by CNBC.
A report from the University of California, Davis, said just a single cow can belch about 220 pounds of methane a year, and that’s not to mention the production of the same gas in manure, which is often used as a fertilizer.
OBSERVATION - This agriculture statement is interesting since Kerry also speaking about same recently, demanding reactions in agriculture. Gates is a dyed in the wool depopulationist and is willing to look to what ever means is available and necessary to achieve the goal of removing billions from the planet.
Remember - domestic cattle are but one of the animal species on this planet and I’ll bet you almost anything that those other animals contribute as much or more. But that is not the goal - the goal is to reduce human population via famine. I know that is a harsh view, but the persistent drum beat from the likes of kerry and gates, overlaid on the Dutch trying to essentially close down all the farms and ireland seeking to reduce herds by 200,000 heads, among others, no other conclusion can be made.
Economy –
Employers in the U.S. are expecting to see the largest increase in healthcare costs in a decade in 2024, according to forecasts from healthcare benefit consultants — although workers may avoid some of the increase due to the tight labor market.
Benefit consultants from Mercer, Aon and Willis Towers Watson see employers’ healthcare costs jumping by a range of 5.4% to 8.5% in 2024 because of medical inflation, high demand for expensive weight-loss drugs and the wider availability of high-priced gene therapies.
OBSERVATION - Being retired and in the transition mode to Medicare, health costs are a concern. I recently turned down a MRI to monitor my pancreas because my payment was well over $1000 - way outside my budget capabilities - and I have what many would consider to be one of the gold plans. Others see Medicare costs rising faster than Social Security increases. In today’s economy with lingering high inflation, an additional 5 -8% increase is going to put the hurt on a lot of families and in the end increase health problems as some procedures will just be abandoned as too expensive. There have been many common sense health care reforms put forth in the past, but they seem to be silently shelved thru the Big Pharma / Big medical lobby.
***
30 yr mortgage rates are officially above 8%.
OBSERVATION - Housing will not recover for a long time, and these rates are also being reflected other loans and credit cards.
***
Rite Aid, one of the top-10 largest pharmacies in the United States, proposed closing up to 500 of its stores in bankruptcy.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday the drugstore chain is “negotiating with creditors over a chapter 11 plan that would substantially shrink its operational footprint.”
If Rite Aid closed 500 stores, that would equal approximately 25% of its 2,000+ drugstores nationwide.
The Philadelphia-based company faces more than $3.3 billion in debt and over a thousand federal lawsuits alleging it oversupplied opioids, the Journal reported.
OBSERVATION - The other silent factor is likely the increase in organized looting that have hit a lot of these businesses of late. Some estimates of over 100 Billion in losses across the board this year alone.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Major metropolitan areas have had substantial losses of police since the 2020 riots. Reviewing videos of recent Antifa et al protests (albeit on a relatively small scale) on trend is concerning. In many of those instances, police are being forced to physically confront aggressive protestors - and typical riot controls are absent. Such things as tear gas, pepper spray, puppet pellets and bean bags. This is largely due to the leftist city and state leadership outlawing police the use of those systems. Should things go sideways, police will be seriously overwhelmed and substantial injuries will be received in future confrontations. This also means that riots will destroy millions (billions) of dollars in structures being burned down and other vandalism/destruction of property as police seek to contain riots rather than stop them. In hardest hit towns like Minneapolis, very little rebuilding has occurred, with building after building boarded up.
***
Seeing Antifa / Transtifa ramping up violence against protestors rejecting trans grooming of children in schools. They are getting improved turnout and cranking up the violence aspect in part to get venues for anti-grooming protests denied. This is still on a local basis, but the interconnections are being firmed up for a readiness to respond to a broader ‘issue’ should on appear.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States Military Academy in West Point, New York is being sued for racial discrimination in its selection process.
On Tuesday, lawyers representing the Students for Fair Admissions sued West Point for alleged race and ethnicity discrimination in admissions decisions, according to Politico. SFFA is the anti-affirmative action group that tanked race-conscious admissions practices at Harvard in a Supreme Court decision.
SFFA contends that West Point is violating the Fifth Amendment with its skewed admission practices. The Fifth Amendment contains an equal-protection principle that binds the federal government.
“Instead of admitting future cadets based on objective metrics and leadership potential, West Point focuses on race,” the lawsuit claimed. “In fact, it openly publishes its racial composition ‘goals,’ and its director of admissions brags that race is wholly determinative for hundreds if not thousands of applicants.”
OBSERVATION - Now we have a replacement for the weasel Milley - Gen Brown - who aggressively advocates race based promotions ands eliminating half of our white fighter pilots to promote ‘equity’ rather than merit.
West Point “ring bangers” were often insufferable when I served. Now with the double blanket of racial preferences, they better hope there isn’t a war because fragging - once a thing of the past - will rise to the surface once again.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Govt shut down looms even closer as the end of the Fy deadline closes to within a week. How harsh will the regime / democrats try to make it on the average person out there? Not sure, but I don’t think republicans are positioning themselves to provide an honest answer.
Biden / Harris Watch –
With increased scuttlebutt that biden may be on the edge of pulling out of the 2024 race - whether he in his withered mind wants to or not - the questions shift to replacements.
To toss harris under the bus as well could strike the ire of democrats black voter base - unless something is done to appease them.
Hence the increased chatter of putting Michelle (Mike) 0bama into the mix - many want it to be the president candidate. Newscum, trying to place distance between his maneuvering for 2024 and his real goals is in the mix as well. Hillary, though popular among some democrat circles, see large negatives that come with her illegal and unethical actions of the past and could spur greater swing towards Trump.
Driving some of this is a recent ABC based poll that shows Trump destroying biden in all categories, especially among independents - by double digits. So something has to give and biden is reportedly in the cross hairs. Most likely will be given kid glove treatment - perhaps that his physical conditions are becoming more than he can handle, etc. Harris will be brutially pushed aside being even less liked than biden and a certifiable twit on her own.
This leave Newscum and mz 0bama as the two front runners for replacement. It will be hard for democrats to pull this ultra leftist duo to the center, but expect crazy support from the progressive base.
Wild card circles back to Kennedy and Manchin, possibly running as a third party ‘moderate’ ticket. That will spell doom for the democrat presidential machine in 2024.
Illegal Immigration –
According to the New York Post, 3.8 million migrants have entered the United States since Biden took office in 2021, 1.5 million of whom made the crossing illegally and have not been caught. The number of “gotaways” is triple the number recorded during the last three years of the Trump presidency.
Fiscal Year 2023 is set to eclipse the record-setting totals posted the previous year. As of May, 530,000 gotaways were reported, leaving four months to surpass the 600,000 tallied in FY2022. Over half of the 2,345,600 Notices to Appear (NTA) granted to migrants since Biden took office have been handed out in FY2023.
OBSERVATION - The forecast is for more significant increases in the flow of illegals in the coming months - at new record setting volumes. Some figure that at this new rate, another 3 million could pour over the border in FY 2024.
The democrat goal is to flood the system, making it virtually impossible to deport these millions and it provides leverage to their debate to issue some sort of amnesty or citizenship because we can’t deal with all of them. IMHO we’ve passed a turning point that short a massive, citizen supported deportation effort our country has lost its national status. Remember, even before Trump, illegal immigration was a problem. Under this regime it has taken an order of magnitude jump. The US is fast approaching European levels of migrants - migrants who want all the benefits, but not willing to integrate or embrace the culture and laws of the country. Time is running out before these illegals mass together and start to really destroy our country materially - and in a measure far greater than what they presently are doing.
***
CNN is reporting that Mexico has made an agreement with the United States to deport migrants from its border cities to their home countries and take several actions to deter migrants as part of a new effort to combat the recent surge in border crossings.
Mexican officials met with US Customs and Border Protection officials on Friday in Ciudad Juárez,, Mexico, which is across the border from El Paso, Texas, following the recent spike in illegal crossings into the US, which temporarily closed an international bridge and paused Mexico’s main cargo train system.
As part of the agreement, Mexico agreed to “depressurize” its northern cities, which border the El Paso, San Diego and Eagle Pass, Texas, where the mayor has declared a state of emergency. They will also implement more than a dozen actions to prevent migrants from risking their lives by using the railway system to reach the US-Mexico border, according to Mexico’s National Migration Institute.
OBSERVATION - Mexico is happy to comply because the crush of illegals is a skyrocketing burden to its economy and border areas as well. Human trafficking by cartels and associate drug related crime has been hard to control in the past, now becoming unmanageable under current conditions.
RELATED - Immigration watchers are noting a dramatic rise in illegals piling onto freight trains headed to the US border.
China –
Taiwan warns that increasingly aggressive Chinese operations around Taiwan could result in a live fire incident.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
RUMINT-
Some are commenting that it appears that Russian is beginning to abandon Crimea as a headquarters for its Black Sea fleet as well as major command center for Ukrainian operations. Recent attacks by Ukraine have exposed just how vulnerable Russian bases and facilities have become. A move of this magnitude will definitely work its way down to the front lines, visible as disrupted command and control as the headquarters are moved ever farther away from the fight to ‘safer’ territory.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued slow, methodical progress by Ukraine on the southern and eastern fronts.
Tokmak Axis -.
Slow but steady, evidence is growing that the crack in the Russian line of defense at Verbove is widening. While on the other sided of the salient, Ukraine forces continued to pick their way southward of Robotnye.
Russian Territory –
A drone attacked an administrative building in Kursk. The roof was slightly damaged, - according to Governor Roman Starovoyt
OUTLOOK –
More being leaked out regarding the delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine. It appears that instead of the single warhead and 300km range ATACMS missiles that could destroy the Kerch Bridge, Ukraine will likely be provided the cluster warhead variant, reportedly with a reduced range of 140km (though there is discussion on if these have been extended to a 300km range)
The arrival of the APAM cluster munitions equipped ATACMS Block 1 and 1A missile delivers 950 munitions in a 1 km by 1 km area. The ability to take out most of a grid square will cause the push back of VKS Buk, S-300 and S-400 surface to air missile batteries out of Southern Ukraine and all of Donbas. Other soft targets like logistic/ammo depots and troop concentrations will also be highly threatened.
Not the Kerch Bridge destroyers some had anticipated, the capability to massively take out Russian air defense systems will open the door for more cruise missile forays - which could take out the Kerch Bridge, as well as free up Ukraine fix wing aircraft strikes using advanced, gps guided gliding bombs to hit key features like strong points on the Russian defensive lines.
The cluster munitions warheads deploy before any air defense missiles can effectively intercept them, increasing their success rate. Ukraine has successfully and ingeniously used systems provided to them to their benefit, so adding a cluster munition ATACMS to the mix will give them a greater degree of flexibility with all their systems.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian media claims Azerbaijani Army is approaching Khankendi, entering the first quarters of the city.
The Russian base in Nagorno Karabakh was hit by forces of Azerbaijan. The Russian army is stationed there as “peacekeeping” force. It is the 2nd major incident of that kind. Few days ago a car carrying Russian soldiers was hit, killing several of them.
OBSERVATION - Much of the world is silent on the actions here.
I didn't write this but it is spot on.
The US Government is presently the most corrupt organized crime syndicate in the world. It is completely lawless, completely immoral, and will stop at nothing to preserve and increase its power. The DOJ, the FBI, DHS, DoD, EPA, IRS - are all Democrat mob enforcement arms that have perverted the law and now use its full power to intimidate innocent Americans and shield guilty friends of the powerful from any justice. The US Government is far more of a threat to the world, and the US, than Russia, China, Iran or any other nation. The US Government as presently constituted operates as Saul Alinsky, hero of the Clinton's and Obama's, under the direction of Lucifer.
Reading any post or opinion that attempts to even define and describe the totality of the syndicate falls ridiculously short. On every front and by every angle it's an all-encompassing degenerate, depraved, perverted, dishonest, demoralizing complete disaster.
Excellent post - so many good ones to pull from I gave up finding the best. +1 on Yellen, Rite Aid, Antifa with their creepy support on people sexually mutilating children, illegal immigration etc... great job Godzilla.
Economy –
JPMorgan analysts said an oil supply shortfall could push prices to $150 per barrel “over the near to medium term.” They forecast a 1 million barrel per day supply shortage in 2025, and this gap will widen to 7 million barrels per day in 2030, which would mean even higher oil prices.
OBSERVATION - the regime’s fight to eliminate fossil fuels have taken the US out as a net exporter of oil to desperately relying on foreign sources. Combined with a dangerous drawdown of the strategic reserve, we are in a perilous situation should something bad come our way - which it seems is building every day.
***
Some economists are raising warnings over the convergence of factors that could weigh heavily on the economy. First being a govt shutdown, with some saying it could cost the GDP 0.05 - 01% every week; spiking fuel prices and an expanded UAW strike. One heck of a way of ushering in FY2024.
***
Janet Yellen latest commentary on the economy::
“I don’t see any sign that the economy is in risk of a downturn.”
OBSERVATION - Her track record is nearly 100% - if you go with opposite of what she says.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Recent poll on free speech and censorship:
* 47% of Dems say free speech should be legal ‘only under certain circumstances.
* 34% of Dems say Americans ‘have too much freedom’
* 75% of Dems say government has a responsibility to censor ‘hateful’ social media posts
Only 31% strongly agree with the statement, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.’
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the growing gap between Red and Blue in the country. Shows the growing hostility of democrats / left towards speech and ‘freedom’ that isn’t in line with the socialists narrative. Attitudes like the poll indicate help generate dehumanization of the leftist opponents and increase their justification of the use of violence against them.
***
See also Illegal immigration for more
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On Wednesday the Army announced that about 3,400 soldiers with the 101st Airborne Division’s 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team will head to Eastern Europe this fall, as will 200 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division Headquarters.
The units will deploy primarily to Romania as well in Southeastern Europe and to the continent’s “High North” region that includes Scandinavian countries, Army officials said.
OBSERVATION - Part of scheduled troop rotations, but maintaining a heightened presence in eastern Europe in the face of the Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Mayo Clinic site now lists hydroxychloroquine as treatment for certain COVID-19 cases
OBSERVATION - Worth noting again.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Likelihood of a govt shutdown are increasing daily.
Biden / Harris Watch –
NBC News’s latest poll shows a combined 74% of registered voters say they have major concerns (59%) or moderate concerns (15%) that Biden, at age 80, doesn’t have the necessary mental and physical health to be president for a second term.
OBSERVATION - It is becoming unmistakable, the powers that be are attempting to push biden out of running in 2024.
Illegal Immigration –
French Ministry of Interior has concluded that about 70% of violent crimes in the Paris metropolis were committed by non-French perpetrators (ie migrants) last year.
OBSERVATION - Why am I noting this here? Because this is a harbinger of what is coming our way - and can dual file under CW2. You have a vast majority of young males, sitting around with nothing to do and realizing that the govt is essentially powerless to stop you from doing just about anything you want.
China –
On Sunday, Taiwan’s military detected a buildup of Chinese forces marshaling along China’s Fujian Province, a coastal region bordering the Taiwan Strait, Focus Taiwan reported early Sunday morning.
These Chinese “military exercises,” as it’s being reported, are being “conducted at Fujian’s Dacheng Bay” and feature an “undisclosed numbers of People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) warplanes, warships, and ground troops.”
But on Sunday, Indo-Pacific News noted, “ferries that have been adapted for military amphibious operations are on the move.
OBSERVATION - Reports of about 6 -8 civilian ferries being taken off their routes and sent south to this area have been out there for a few days. As far as an invasion force goes - these ferries would be used as follow-on elements as they are unsuited for a direct assault. What is significant is the appearance that China is upping its training for an amphibious operation. Not noted is how many military amphibious ships are present as well.
I’ve noted many times before that this operation is beyond the scope of anything China has ever attempted - particularly during the era of modern warfare. Its one thing to maneuver your ships under no opposition, its entirely something else to do so while dodging missiles and torpedos and taking loses. At this stage, the most probable course of action China could take would be a backside of Taiwan - a far lower risk than an amphibious assault. The troop build up and exercises in the Dacheng Bay still need close monitoring to see how Chinese command and control play out.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
RUMINT-
Analysts, citing an insider source in the Kremlin, claim that the Russian President gave Shoigu a month (end of October) to improve the situation on the front line, stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive and return the initiative to Russian troops.
The report suggests that Russian military commanders may order continuous counterattacks to force the Ukrainian counteroffensive to reach a climax, even at high cost to Russian military capabilities.
This is similar to the directive last fall/winter for Russian forces to seize Luhansk Oblast.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
RUMINT has been floating around.
- Possibly 30-40 Russian officers were killed/seriously wounded in the Black Sea Fleet headquarters strike.
- Ukraine successfully struck ships that were docked at Berths No. 17 and 19 in Sevastopol with Neptune missiles.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down over 19 of 19 Shahed drones, 11 of 12 Kaliber cruise missiles. Russian forces have also launched 2 Onyx missiles. Odesa was targeted and a high rise hotel was hit and burned to the ground. Port facilities in the Odesa region damaged by attacks as well.
More interesting developments along the Tokmok axis - see below.
Tokmak Axis -.
NOTE - The following has not been fully confirmed, but available indicators suggest it is factual.
Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove on September 22 & continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.
Russian sources also indicate that Ukrainian forces are operating north of Verbove. The VDV source later reported that Ukrainian forces occupy half of Verbove as of September 24.
Partially confirmed reports indicate that Ukraine is widening the shoulders of its penetration in the sector and blunting any attempts by Russian forces to close the salient.
Two key breakaways from the above. I reported Ukranian armor entering the Verbove area several days ago - the first seen in weeks - following the line of breach by ukrainian infantry. Not a good sign for Russian forces. Secondly, the operation north of Verbove appears to be along a seam between Russian brigades. In western doctrine, adjacent units must establish contact with each other for control/reporting of adjacent unit operations and early waning of any hazards. Russian milbloggers are highly concerned about the Ukrainian thrust as potentially isolating the northern unit as well as encircling Verbove.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet). Elements of the brigade have reportedly been operating in the Zaporizhia since March 2023 and in w. Zaporizhia since June 2023.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has transferred forces from this axis to the Tokmok axis - possibly focusing away from this axis in favor of Tokmok.
Bakhmut Axis -
Heavy explosions were reported at the ammunition depot in Sorokyne of Luhansk region
Russian Territory –
Possible casualties after explosions at Khalino airfield in Kursk region.
RUMINT surrounding this is that Russian EW forced an Ukranian drone to land and as the base commander, nearly a dozen other officers and airfield staff got to the drone, it exploded, killing about a dozen including the commander and most of the other officers.
Ukraine drones in the Tula and Moscow area caused traffic to be halted at Domodedovo airport in Moscow region.
Russia news reports that after a large explosion, Pulkovo International Airport and surrounding residential areas lost electricity and water in Saint Petersburg.
OUTLOOK –
If the orders to Shoigu are true, Russia is becoming very desperate in its defense of the Tokmok axis and reinforces the evidence that Ukraine has broken the major defensive line and is in the process of exploiting the breach. Russia has thrown its marines (from the Black Sea Fleet) and VDV into this sector and they’ve been taken a mauling. Shoigu is going to face challenges because not only has he lost his Black Sea admiral, he has lost (to wounds anyway) generals and senior staff of the combined arms armies working the defense. Whole new chains of command need to be established and forces scrapped up from elsewhere along the defensive lines to shore up the sector.
The order to conduct ‘continuous counter attacks’ is one where Russia has virtually no operational reserve to support. Russian defense in depth doctrine has Russia immediately counter attacking if they lose ground - and Ukraine baiting that to a “T “ - digging right in and then submitting the underpowered Russian counter attacks to the meat grinder. In the Tokmok axis, Ukraine has the advantage in artillery - a luxury they haven’t had for most of the war. Combined with drone air superiority, quick artillery support and the introduction of cluster munitions, let’s just say Russian counterattacks have been far less than successful and have resulted in massive losses.
Artillery superiority in the current battle around Verbove has been another issue Russians are on the ropes about. Russian milbloggers and reports there indicate that Ukraine artillery is so significant, they are unable to evac their wounded (not that they’ve done that well under other conditions). Accurate artillery support, combined with direct fire support from armor/tanks is likely to beak the defense wide open soon as there is no evidence of any significant Russian counter effort in play.
The deep war continues, but at a general pause from both sides as their OODA loops work frantically to ID and prepare attacks on the next round of targets. Ukraine is beating Russia at this hands down. Russia is throwing assets at civilian targets that will have little effect on the ground war. Ukraine is targeting Russian command and logistical assets that will and are having an effect on the ground war. This week most likely see at least one major Russian missile attack as they conserve their cruise and ballistic missiles. Ukraine appears to be probing with its drones again, setting up for their next series of focused strike.
Keep your eyes on the Verbove region because things are close to an armor breakout that could throw Russian forces into a serous retreat.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
At least four people are dead after Kosovan police cleared a monastery held by at least 30 heavily armed men near the border with Serbia.
“We put this territory under control. It was done after several consecutive battles,” Xhelal Svecla, Kosovo’s minister of internal affairs said.
The day began with the death of a police officer in Banjska village, before the occupation of the monastery.
Belgrade and Pristina were quick to blame each other for the violence.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said three of those killed in the shooting were confirmed to be Kosovo Serbs.
OBSERVATION - The attack by these Kosovian Serbs is the most serous action in months of mounting tension between Pristina and Belgrade. Substantial arms and supplies were found in the monastery, showing serious support likely funneled in from Serbia.
Israel –
Israel’s security services have raised their alert level for Yom Kippur and thousands of police officers will be deployed throughout the country, with attention being directed mainly to synagogues and places of worship.
The head of the Operations Division of the Israel Police, Superintendent Sigal Bar Zvi, called on legal firearms owners to carry them during Yom Kippur. “We call on the public who have weapons and are skilled in using them when necessary, to keep their weapons by their side during the upcoming days.”
OBSERVATION - pretty common to issue such an alert, but with heightened tensions from terrorists in Jenin and other camps, concerns are very real.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenia is sending convoys of buses to Nagorno-Karabakh to evacuate some of the 120 000 Armenians living there.
It is expected that many of them will leave for Armenia as Azerbaijan is taking control of the area.
OBSERVATION - The refugees are fleeing the strong probability of ethnic cleansing once control of Nagorno-Karabakh is solidified by the Azeri’s. So far the Azeri’s have not been restricting or interfering with refugees leaving the region.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
France will withdraw it’s troops from Niger and recall it’s ambassador following the coup, Macron says. Process could take ‘months’ - Reuters
OBSERVATION - Not much else brewing in Niger. Some think that the removal could be a signal that an invasion is close at hand or that the anti-rebel coalition is backing down from a fight.
If cartels can be stopped from buying off half of Washington DC and if we avoid becoming a police state ... Biden will go down in history as the worst President in our history. Lot's of 'if's' in that but God willing we can get past Biden...
Back in the garage, JOHN BIGBOOTE tries to open the jet car's door.
JOHN BIGBOOTE: It's locked.
He pokes around the jet car.
JOHN BIGBOOTE: John O'Connor, smash the window.
JOHN O'CONNOR: Why me, John Bigboote?
JOHN BIGBOOTE hands JOHN O'CONNOR a wrench.
JOHN BIGBOOTE: It might be booby-trapped.
JOHN O'CONNOR: Oh.
JOHN O'CONNOR smashes the jet car's window.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Australia’s government has unveiled plans to implement a universal digital ID system for its citizens, stirring up controversial issues related to privacy, surveillance, and free speech.
Finance and Public Service Minister Katy Gallagher made the announcement this month, outlining a blueprint for a platform that unifies an individual’s identification documents. This project seeks to leverage AI and biometric verification to enhance citizens’ interaction with government and third-party organizations conveniently and efficiently.
The proposed digital ID system is looking to evolve the existing digital ID,
MyGovID, which is currently used by over 10.5 million Australians.
This existing platform interacts with 130 services across 40 different government agencies, but its function is limited to government service access.
https://reclaimthenet.org/australia-creates-taskforce-for-implementing-universal-digital-id-system
OBSERVATION - Noted time and again lately, individual countries are progressing towards a unified digital ID combined with a CBDC controlled by their ESG scores. Australia was very sheepled during the wuhan plandemic, making them much more pliable for further govt control via this new digital ID system. Coming soon to the US as well.
We are just one major global crisis away from the WEF obtaining similar on a global basis.
Economy –
A U.S. government shutdown would have negative implications for its credit assessment as it would highlight the weakness of U.S. institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments, Moody’s said Monday. However, the economic impact would likely be short-lived, the credit ratings agency said.
OBSERVATION - Much depends on the duration of any shut down. At this stage, it is looking like the shut down could be prolonged, and that would make a definite economic impact.
***
McDonald’s will raise its royalty fee for franchise operators who are looking to open new locations in the United States in what’s believed to be the company’s first such increase in nearly 30 years, according to a report.
McDonald’s will also rename the charge from “service fees” to “royalty fees,” which is the term used in other McDonald’s markets globally, according to the letter.
Royalty is a payment made by restaurant operators to the owner, with the rate determined according to the revenue generated by the licensed property.
OBSERVATION - The ‘fee’ increase, irrespective of what you call it, comes at the worst possible time for franchise operators. Inflation is ripping at their cost bottom line, combined with a persistent trouble in hiring staff and declining customer base , because who can afford a mediocre big mac at prices that almost demand a bank lone to afford. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, it is cheaper to go to Perkins and get a better quality meal, than to McD’s. Heck, even Pizza Ranch is orders of magnitude better.
Gone are the days of getting a hamburger, fries and a drink for under a $1.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Crime associated with illegals in NYC is rising quickly, causing push back from the residents who consistently voted in liberals and their sanctuary city policies.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Unlike previous shutdowns, the military is at risk of going unpaid for its duration. The most recent shutdowns had pre-passed defense appropriations bills that covered military pay.
OBSERVATION - The current regime has let military barracks crumble to disgusting levels. Similar with other on base housing. Far too many of our soldiers are relying on social programs just to afford food. This is a knife right at the heart of those who believe that service to our country is honorable, as the country is spitting on them.
***
The Ronald Reagan Strike Group (CSG) is in Yokosuka, Japan. The carrier strike group had attempted to get underway five times in the last week but has since rescheduled, according to notifications from the Yokosuka City Council reviewed by USNI News.
There are currently no CSGs deployed to the western pacific region. The only flattop is forward-deployed amphibious assault carrier USS America (LHA-6).
OBSERVATION - Some note that there is a fall weather window that China could exploit for an amphibious assault, but it isn’t likely that they can kick it off on such short notice to exploit the problems with the Reagan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Country is falling closer to going into shutdown. Only 4 more days left for a CR to be passed to kick the budgeting down the road and prevent it. From all appearances, the democrat left is making plans for a prolonged shutdown while republican ‘leadership’ scrambles around like a chicken with its head cut off to avert one.
Biden / Harris Watch –
September’s Harvard/Harris survey found that 58 percent of Democrats believe biden “is showing he is fit to be president,” four in ten Democrats, 42 percent, believe he “is showing he is too old to be president.” Ninety percent of Republicans and three-quarters of independents agree with that sentiment.
Further, most respondents across the board, 58 percent, have “doubts” about Biden’s mental fitness. That includes 31 percent of Democrats, 86 percent of Republicans, and 62 percent of independents. Interestingly, those results show Democrats, particularly, growing more concerned with Biden’s mental fitness.
OBSERVATION - With the growing negative coverage of biden, particularly in the light of his physical and definitely mental shortcomings, these numbers will be expected to increase. More evidence that the knives are coming out to push biden aside from a 2024 presidential run.
***
I saw an interesting theory on how the democrat 2024 presidential selection will pan out. First is the removal of harris from the VP by giving her Fienstine’s senate seat. Newscum is then appointed VP and within a short time biden is seen to be resigning - either willingly or kicking and screaming. This would make Newscum the prez, and the democrat nominee for 2024. Running mate uncertain, though there are strong inferences to ‘mike’ 0bama.
Interesting theory, addresses the Harris problem, addresses newscum’s “stealth” presidential campaign and even 0bama rumors of trying to officially return to the WH power circles (openly).
BTW a new Harris/Harvard poll over 09/13-14 shows Trump with a solid 4 point lead over biden, making it harder for the left to call the ABC poll and ‘outlier’
Illegal Immigration –
For a second time in a couple of weeks, Border Patrol cut razor wire that the state of Texas had placed alongside on the Rio Grande to stop illegal aliens from flooding into the country.
OBSERVATION - Texas will need to station Rangers along the border at these locations that the border patrol has opened up the wire and arrest them - an action that poses serious balance of powers issues - in order to stop further opening of wire barriers.
***
Department of Homeland Security is reportedly planning to give photo identification (ID) cards to border crossers and illegal aliens before they are released into the United States.
Leaked images of the photo ID cards for illegal aliens were first published by Adam Shaw at Fox News, showing space for the carrier’s photo, a QR code, and information about the carrier, including name and age — similar to a driver’s license or state-issued ID.
The ID cards, part of a DHS pilot program, could be used by Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents at airports or to access public benefits.
OBSERVATION - This is another step to normalize illegals and to pave the way for some sort of dramatic amnesty program designed to permanently tip the voting population to the democrat side of the ledger.
China –
The Philippines on Sunday condemned the Chinese coast guard for installing what it called a “floating barrier” in a disputed area of the South China Sea, saying that it prevented Filipino boats from entering and fishing in the area.
In a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, Philippine coast guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela said the floating barrier was discovered by Philippine vessels during a routine maritime patrol on Friday and measured around 300 meters (984 feet).
“The Philippine coast guard and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources strongly condemn the China coast guard’s installation of a floating barrier in the Southeast portion of Bajo de Masinloc, which prevents Filipino fishing boats from entering the shoal and depriving them of their fishing and livelihood activities,” the statement read.
Philippine Coast Guard has announced the barrier has been removed.
OBSERVATION - This is part of the ongoing efforts by China to physically seize islands out side of its internationally recognized waters. The U.S. and the Philippines have an active mutual defense treaty, so things could get spicy if China becomes more aggressive.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
There are reports that former Wagner Group forces are returning to the front, but they are subordinate to regular army elements and are unlikely to reform under any separate leadership. Their impact on the battlefield will be seriously diluted and not very effective.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
More adjusted numbers of Russian losses from the strike on the Black Sea HQ - Ukraine SOF claim that Russia’s military leadership wiped out during big meeting. Admiral Sokolov killed in missile strikes on Crimea HQ on Sep 22nd. Strikes timed & guided by human intelligence (Russian officer ratted them out).
34 officers dead including generals and 105 injured.
NOTE - We will probably not know the final, actual number though Russia has not disputed the loss of the Admiral.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine air defenses had a rough night last night, shooting down 26 of 38 Shahed drones. The Odesa region and specifically the port facilities around Reni, on the Ukraine / Romanian border, were hit hard. A checkpoint building, warehouses and about 30 trucks were damaged, 6 trucks caught fire.
Ukraine drones were busy over Kursk, Belgorod, and Sevastopol.
Over the last day or so, the fog of war has increased over the fight in the south and east. A lot of fake or old reposting of information and videos, etc. have flooded the feeds. Through it, Ukrainian continues to make gains around Verbove and Novoprokopivka (town south of Robotyne).
Partisan Resistance ——
In occupied Mariupol partisans destroyed the transformer installations that provided a Russian base with electricity.
OUTLOOK –
The action on the Tokmok axis continues to display evidence that the Russian defensive lines have been cracked and that Ukraine is widening the breaches. The general fog of war has rolled in and makes monitoring the ground action very difficult. I still expect to see more successes by Ukraine in the south, especially now that it is apparent that they have started pushing armor / tanks through the breach in the Verbove area.
Europe / NATO General –
As a result of the night drone attack, the “Orlivka-Isakcha” crossing point between Ukraine and Romania in Odesa region is not working.
OBSERVATION - These strikes are within a few hundred meters of Romanian territory. I’m not sure that Romania has their air defense systems up an running yet, but Russia is toeing a very dangerous line.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Massive traffic jam as Armenian christians flee to Armenia ahead of the complete takeover of the N-K region. Line of cars noted in one location being 50 miles long.
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