Economy –
JPMorgan analysts said an oil supply shortfall could push prices to $150 per barrel “over the near to medium term.” They forecast a 1 million barrel per day supply shortage in 2025, and this gap will widen to 7 million barrels per day in 2030, which would mean even higher oil prices.
OBSERVATION - the regime’s fight to eliminate fossil fuels have taken the US out as a net exporter of oil to desperately relying on foreign sources. Combined with a dangerous drawdown of the strategic reserve, we are in a perilous situation should something bad come our way - which it seems is building every day.
***
Some economists are raising warnings over the convergence of factors that could weigh heavily on the economy. First being a govt shutdown, with some saying it could cost the GDP 0.05 - 01% every week; spiking fuel prices and an expanded UAW strike. One heck of a way of ushering in FY2024.
***
Janet Yellen latest commentary on the economy::
“I don’t see any sign that the economy is in risk of a downturn.”
OBSERVATION - Her track record is nearly 100% - if you go with opposite of what she says.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Recent poll on free speech and censorship:
* 47% of Dems say free speech should be legal ‘only under certain circumstances.
* 34% of Dems say Americans ‘have too much freedom’
* 75% of Dems say government has a responsibility to censor ‘hateful’ social media posts
Only 31% strongly agree with the statement, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.’
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the growing gap between Red and Blue in the country. Shows the growing hostility of democrats / left towards speech and ‘freedom’ that isn’t in line with the socialists narrative. Attitudes like the poll indicate help generate dehumanization of the leftist opponents and increase their justification of the use of violence against them.
***
See also Illegal immigration for more
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On Wednesday the Army announced that about 3,400 soldiers with the 101st Airborne Division’s 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team will head to Eastern Europe this fall, as will 200 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division Headquarters.
The units will deploy primarily to Romania as well in Southeastern Europe and to the continent’s “High North” region that includes Scandinavian countries, Army officials said.
OBSERVATION - Part of scheduled troop rotations, but maintaining a heightened presence in eastern Europe in the face of the Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Mayo Clinic site now lists hydroxychloroquine as treatment for certain COVID-19 cases
OBSERVATION - Worth noting again.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Likelihood of a govt shutdown are increasing daily.
Biden / Harris Watch –
NBC News’s latest poll shows a combined 74% of registered voters say they have major concerns (59%) or moderate concerns (15%) that Biden, at age 80, doesn’t have the necessary mental and physical health to be president for a second term.
OBSERVATION - It is becoming unmistakable, the powers that be are attempting to push biden out of running in 2024.
Illegal Immigration –
French Ministry of Interior has concluded that about 70% of violent crimes in the Paris metropolis were committed by non-French perpetrators (ie migrants) last year.
OBSERVATION - Why am I noting this here? Because this is a harbinger of what is coming our way - and can dual file under CW2. You have a vast majority of young males, sitting around with nothing to do and realizing that the govt is essentially powerless to stop you from doing just about anything you want.
China –
On Sunday, Taiwan’s military detected a buildup of Chinese forces marshaling along China’s Fujian Province, a coastal region bordering the Taiwan Strait, Focus Taiwan reported early Sunday morning.
These Chinese “military exercises,” as it’s being reported, are being “conducted at Fujian’s Dacheng Bay” and feature an “undisclosed numbers of People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) warplanes, warships, and ground troops.”
But on Sunday, Indo-Pacific News noted, “ferries that have been adapted for military amphibious operations are on the move.
OBSERVATION - Reports of about 6 -8 civilian ferries being taken off their routes and sent south to this area have been out there for a few days. As far as an invasion force goes - these ferries would be used as follow-on elements as they are unsuited for a direct assault. What is significant is the appearance that China is upping its training for an amphibious operation. Not noted is how many military amphibious ships are present as well.
I’ve noted many times before that this operation is beyond the scope of anything China has ever attempted - particularly during the era of modern warfare. Its one thing to maneuver your ships under no opposition, its entirely something else to do so while dodging missiles and torpedos and taking loses. At this stage, the most probable course of action China could take would be a backside of Taiwan - a far lower risk than an amphibious assault. The troop build up and exercises in the Dacheng Bay still need close monitoring to see how Chinese command and control play out.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
RUMINT-
Analysts, citing an insider source in the Kremlin, claim that the Russian President gave Shoigu a month (end of October) to improve the situation on the front line, stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive and return the initiative to Russian troops.
The report suggests that Russian military commanders may order continuous counterattacks to force the Ukrainian counteroffensive to reach a climax, even at high cost to Russian military capabilities.
This is similar to the directive last fall/winter for Russian forces to seize Luhansk Oblast.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
RUMINT has been floating around.
- Possibly 30-40 Russian officers were killed/seriously wounded in the Black Sea Fleet headquarters strike.
- Ukraine successfully struck ships that were docked at Berths No. 17 and 19 in Sevastopol with Neptune missiles.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down over 19 of 19 Shahed drones, 11 of 12 Kaliber cruise missiles. Russian forces have also launched 2 Onyx missiles. Odesa was targeted and a high rise hotel was hit and burned to the ground. Port facilities in the Odesa region damaged by attacks as well.
More interesting developments along the Tokmok axis - see below.
Tokmak Axis -.
NOTE - The following has not been fully confirmed, but available indicators suggest it is factual.
Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove on September 22 & continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.
Russian sources also indicate that Ukrainian forces are operating north of Verbove. The VDV source later reported that Ukrainian forces occupy half of Verbove as of September 24.
Partially confirmed reports indicate that Ukraine is widening the shoulders of its penetration in the sector and blunting any attempts by Russian forces to close the salient.
Two key breakaways from the above. I reported Ukranian armor entering the Verbove area several days ago - the first seen in weeks - following the line of breach by ukrainian infantry. Not a good sign for Russian forces. Secondly, the operation north of Verbove appears to be along a seam between Russian brigades. In western doctrine, adjacent units must establish contact with each other for control/reporting of adjacent unit operations and early waning of any hazards. Russian milbloggers are highly concerned about the Ukrainian thrust as potentially isolating the northern unit as well as encircling Verbove.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet). Elements of the brigade have reportedly been operating in the Zaporizhia since March 2023 and in w. Zaporizhia since June 2023.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has transferred forces from this axis to the Tokmok axis - possibly focusing away from this axis in favor of Tokmok.
Bakhmut Axis -
Heavy explosions were reported at the ammunition depot in Sorokyne of Luhansk region
Russian Territory –
Possible casualties after explosions at Khalino airfield in Kursk region.
RUMINT surrounding this is that Russian EW forced an Ukranian drone to land and as the base commander, nearly a dozen other officers and airfield staff got to the drone, it exploded, killing about a dozen including the commander and most of the other officers.
Ukraine drones in the Tula and Moscow area caused traffic to be halted at Domodedovo airport in Moscow region.
Russia news reports that after a large explosion, Pulkovo International Airport and surrounding residential areas lost electricity and water in Saint Petersburg.
OUTLOOK –
If the orders to Shoigu are true, Russia is becoming very desperate in its defense of the Tokmok axis and reinforces the evidence that Ukraine has broken the major defensive line and is in the process of exploiting the breach. Russia has thrown its marines (from the Black Sea Fleet) and VDV into this sector and they’ve been taken a mauling. Shoigu is going to face challenges because not only has he lost his Black Sea admiral, he has lost (to wounds anyway) generals and senior staff of the combined arms armies working the defense. Whole new chains of command need to be established and forces scrapped up from elsewhere along the defensive lines to shore up the sector.
The order to conduct ‘continuous counter attacks’ is one where Russia has virtually no operational reserve to support. Russian defense in depth doctrine has Russia immediately counter attacking if they lose ground - and Ukraine baiting that to a “T “ - digging right in and then submitting the underpowered Russian counter attacks to the meat grinder. In the Tokmok axis, Ukraine has the advantage in artillery - a luxury they haven’t had for most of the war. Combined with drone air superiority, quick artillery support and the introduction of cluster munitions, let’s just say Russian counterattacks have been far less than successful and have resulted in massive losses.
Artillery superiority in the current battle around Verbove has been another issue Russians are on the ropes about. Russian milbloggers and reports there indicate that Ukraine artillery is so significant, they are unable to evac their wounded (not that they’ve done that well under other conditions). Accurate artillery support, combined with direct fire support from armor/tanks is likely to beak the defense wide open soon as there is no evidence of any significant Russian counter effort in play.
The deep war continues, but at a general pause from both sides as their OODA loops work frantically to ID and prepare attacks on the next round of targets. Ukraine is beating Russia at this hands down. Russia is throwing assets at civilian targets that will have little effect on the ground war. Ukraine is targeting Russian command and logistical assets that will and are having an effect on the ground war. This week most likely see at least one major Russian missile attack as they conserve their cruise and ballistic missiles. Ukraine appears to be probing with its drones again, setting up for their next series of focused strike.
Keep your eyes on the Verbove region because things are close to an armor breakout that could throw Russian forces into a serous retreat.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
At least four people are dead after Kosovan police cleared a monastery held by at least 30 heavily armed men near the border with Serbia.
“We put this territory under control. It was done after several consecutive battles,” Xhelal Svecla, Kosovo’s minister of internal affairs said.
The day began with the death of a police officer in Banjska village, before the occupation of the monastery.
Belgrade and Pristina were quick to blame each other for the violence.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said three of those killed in the shooting were confirmed to be Kosovo Serbs.
OBSERVATION - The attack by these Kosovian Serbs is the most serous action in months of mounting tension between Pristina and Belgrade. Substantial arms and supplies were found in the monastery, showing serious support likely funneled in from Serbia.
Israel –
Israel’s security services have raised their alert level for Yom Kippur and thousands of police officers will be deployed throughout the country, with attention being directed mainly to synagogues and places of worship.
The head of the Operations Division of the Israel Police, Superintendent Sigal Bar Zvi, called on legal firearms owners to carry them during Yom Kippur. “We call on the public who have weapons and are skilled in using them when necessary, to keep their weapons by their side during the upcoming days.”
OBSERVATION - pretty common to issue such an alert, but with heightened tensions from terrorists in Jenin and other camps, concerns are very real.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenia is sending convoys of buses to Nagorno-Karabakh to evacuate some of the 120 000 Armenians living there.
It is expected that many of them will leave for Armenia as Azerbaijan is taking control of the area.
OBSERVATION - The refugees are fleeing the strong probability of ethnic cleansing once control of Nagorno-Karabakh is solidified by the Azeri’s. So far the Azeri’s have not been restricting or interfering with refugees leaving the region.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
France will withdraw it’s troops from Niger and recall it’s ambassador following the coup, Macron says. Process could take ‘months’ - Reuters
OBSERVATION - Not much else brewing in Niger. Some think that the removal could be a signal that an invasion is close at hand or that the anti-rebel coalition is backing down from a fight.
If cartels can be stopped from buying off half of Washington DC and if we avoid becoming a police state ... Biden will go down in history as the worst President in our history. Lot's of 'if's' in that but God willing we can get past Biden...
Back in the garage, JOHN BIGBOOTE tries to open the jet car's door.
JOHN BIGBOOTE: It's locked.
He pokes around the jet car.
JOHN BIGBOOTE: John O'Connor, smash the window.
JOHN O'CONNOR: Why me, John Bigboote?
JOHN BIGBOOTE hands JOHN O'CONNOR a wrench.
JOHN BIGBOOTE: It might be booby-trapped.
JOHN O'CONNOR: Oh.
JOHN O'CONNOR smashes the jet car's window.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Australia’s government has unveiled plans to implement a universal digital ID system for its citizens, stirring up controversial issues related to privacy, surveillance, and free speech.
Finance and Public Service Minister Katy Gallagher made the announcement this month, outlining a blueprint for a platform that unifies an individual’s identification documents. This project seeks to leverage AI and biometric verification to enhance citizens’ interaction with government and third-party organizations conveniently and efficiently.
The proposed digital ID system is looking to evolve the existing digital ID,
MyGovID, which is currently used by over 10.5 million Australians.
This existing platform interacts with 130 services across 40 different government agencies, but its function is limited to government service access.
https://reclaimthenet.org/australia-creates-taskforce-for-implementing-universal-digital-id-system
OBSERVATION - Noted time and again lately, individual countries are progressing towards a unified digital ID combined with a CBDC controlled by their ESG scores. Australia was very sheepled during the wuhan plandemic, making them much more pliable for further govt control via this new digital ID system. Coming soon to the US as well.
We are just one major global crisis away from the WEF obtaining similar on a global basis.
Economy –
A U.S. government shutdown would have negative implications for its credit assessment as it would highlight the weakness of U.S. institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments, Moody’s said Monday. However, the economic impact would likely be short-lived, the credit ratings agency said.
OBSERVATION - Much depends on the duration of any shut down. At this stage, it is looking like the shut down could be prolonged, and that would make a definite economic impact.
***
McDonald’s will raise its royalty fee for franchise operators who are looking to open new locations in the United States in what’s believed to be the company’s first such increase in nearly 30 years, according to a report.
McDonald’s will also rename the charge from “service fees” to “royalty fees,” which is the term used in other McDonald’s markets globally, according to the letter.
Royalty is a payment made by restaurant operators to the owner, with the rate determined according to the revenue generated by the licensed property.
OBSERVATION - The ‘fee’ increase, irrespective of what you call it, comes at the worst possible time for franchise operators. Inflation is ripping at their cost bottom line, combined with a persistent trouble in hiring staff and declining customer base , because who can afford a mediocre big mac at prices that almost demand a bank lone to afford. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, it is cheaper to go to Perkins and get a better quality meal, than to McD’s. Heck, even Pizza Ranch is orders of magnitude better.
Gone are the days of getting a hamburger, fries and a drink for under a $1.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Crime associated with illegals in NYC is rising quickly, causing push back from the residents who consistently voted in liberals and their sanctuary city policies.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Unlike previous shutdowns, the military is at risk of going unpaid for its duration. The most recent shutdowns had pre-passed defense appropriations bills that covered military pay.
OBSERVATION - The current regime has let military barracks crumble to disgusting levels. Similar with other on base housing. Far too many of our soldiers are relying on social programs just to afford food. This is a knife right at the heart of those who believe that service to our country is honorable, as the country is spitting on them.
***
The Ronald Reagan Strike Group (CSG) is in Yokosuka, Japan. The carrier strike group had attempted to get underway five times in the last week but has since rescheduled, according to notifications from the Yokosuka City Council reviewed by USNI News.
There are currently no CSGs deployed to the western pacific region. The only flattop is forward-deployed amphibious assault carrier USS America (LHA-6).
OBSERVATION - Some note that there is a fall weather window that China could exploit for an amphibious assault, but it isn’t likely that they can kick it off on such short notice to exploit the problems with the Reagan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Country is falling closer to going into shutdown. Only 4 more days left for a CR to be passed to kick the budgeting down the road and prevent it. From all appearances, the democrat left is making plans for a prolonged shutdown while republican ‘leadership’ scrambles around like a chicken with its head cut off to avert one.
Biden / Harris Watch –
September’s Harvard/Harris survey found that 58 percent of Democrats believe biden “is showing he is fit to be president,” four in ten Democrats, 42 percent, believe he “is showing he is too old to be president.” Ninety percent of Republicans and three-quarters of independents agree with that sentiment.
Further, most respondents across the board, 58 percent, have “doubts” about Biden’s mental fitness. That includes 31 percent of Democrats, 86 percent of Republicans, and 62 percent of independents. Interestingly, those results show Democrats, particularly, growing more concerned with Biden’s mental fitness.
OBSERVATION - With the growing negative coverage of biden, particularly in the light of his physical and definitely mental shortcomings, these numbers will be expected to increase. More evidence that the knives are coming out to push biden aside from a 2024 presidential run.
***
I saw an interesting theory on how the democrat 2024 presidential selection will pan out. First is the removal of harris from the VP by giving her Fienstine’s senate seat. Newscum is then appointed VP and within a short time biden is seen to be resigning - either willingly or kicking and screaming. This would make Newscum the prez, and the democrat nominee for 2024. Running mate uncertain, though there are strong inferences to ‘mike’ 0bama.
Interesting theory, addresses the Harris problem, addresses newscum’s “stealth” presidential campaign and even 0bama rumors of trying to officially return to the WH power circles (openly).
BTW a new Harris/Harvard poll over 09/13-14 shows Trump with a solid 4 point lead over biden, making it harder for the left to call the ABC poll and ‘outlier’
Illegal Immigration –
For a second time in a couple of weeks, Border Patrol cut razor wire that the state of Texas had placed alongside on the Rio Grande to stop illegal aliens from flooding into the country.
OBSERVATION - Texas will need to station Rangers along the border at these locations that the border patrol has opened up the wire and arrest them - an action that poses serious balance of powers issues - in order to stop further opening of wire barriers.
***
Department of Homeland Security is reportedly planning to give photo identification (ID) cards to border crossers and illegal aliens before they are released into the United States.
Leaked images of the photo ID cards for illegal aliens were first published by Adam Shaw at Fox News, showing space for the carrier’s photo, a QR code, and information about the carrier, including name and age — similar to a driver’s license or state-issued ID.
The ID cards, part of a DHS pilot program, could be used by Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents at airports or to access public benefits.
OBSERVATION - This is another step to normalize illegals and to pave the way for some sort of dramatic amnesty program designed to permanently tip the voting population to the democrat side of the ledger.
China –
The Philippines on Sunday condemned the Chinese coast guard for installing what it called a “floating barrier” in a disputed area of the South China Sea, saying that it prevented Filipino boats from entering and fishing in the area.
In a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, Philippine coast guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela said the floating barrier was discovered by Philippine vessels during a routine maritime patrol on Friday and measured around 300 meters (984 feet).
“The Philippine coast guard and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources strongly condemn the China coast guard’s installation of a floating barrier in the Southeast portion of Bajo de Masinloc, which prevents Filipino fishing boats from entering the shoal and depriving them of their fishing and livelihood activities,” the statement read.
Philippine Coast Guard has announced the barrier has been removed.
OBSERVATION - This is part of the ongoing efforts by China to physically seize islands out side of its internationally recognized waters. The U.S. and the Philippines have an active mutual defense treaty, so things could get spicy if China becomes more aggressive.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
There are reports that former Wagner Group forces are returning to the front, but they are subordinate to regular army elements and are unlikely to reform under any separate leadership. Their impact on the battlefield will be seriously diluted and not very effective.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
More adjusted numbers of Russian losses from the strike on the Black Sea HQ - Ukraine SOF claim that Russia’s military leadership wiped out during big meeting. Admiral Sokolov killed in missile strikes on Crimea HQ on Sep 22nd. Strikes timed & guided by human intelligence (Russian officer ratted them out).
34 officers dead including generals and 105 injured.
NOTE - We will probably not know the final, actual number though Russia has not disputed the loss of the Admiral.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine air defenses had a rough night last night, shooting down 26 of 38 Shahed drones. The Odesa region and specifically the port facilities around Reni, on the Ukraine / Romanian border, were hit hard. A checkpoint building, warehouses and about 30 trucks were damaged, 6 trucks caught fire.
Ukraine drones were busy over Kursk, Belgorod, and Sevastopol.
Over the last day or so, the fog of war has increased over the fight in the south and east. A lot of fake or old reposting of information and videos, etc. have flooded the feeds. Through it, Ukrainian continues to make gains around Verbove and Novoprokopivka (town south of Robotyne).
Partisan Resistance ——
In occupied Mariupol partisans destroyed the transformer installations that provided a Russian base with electricity.
OUTLOOK –
The action on the Tokmok axis continues to display evidence that the Russian defensive lines have been cracked and that Ukraine is widening the breaches. The general fog of war has rolled in and makes monitoring the ground action very difficult. I still expect to see more successes by Ukraine in the south, especially now that it is apparent that they have started pushing armor / tanks through the breach in the Verbove area.
Europe / NATO General –
As a result of the night drone attack, the “Orlivka-Isakcha” crossing point between Ukraine and Romania in Odesa region is not working.
OBSERVATION - These strikes are within a few hundred meters of Romanian territory. I’m not sure that Romania has their air defense systems up an running yet, but Russia is toeing a very dangerous line.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Massive traffic jam as Armenian christians flee to Armenia ahead of the complete takeover of the N-K region. Line of cars noted in one location being 50 miles long.