Globalism / Great Reset –
Keep this on your radars as these are key efforts by the WEF/globalists:
* Digital currency
* Digital ID/passports
* Global warming related efforts to kill fossil fuels
* Stripping parents of their rights to their children
* Expanding ‘normalization’ of sexual perversion
* Undermining of global economic by multiple means
* Global population replacement / migration
* Elimination of the rights of free speech
* Elimination of private ownership of all weapons
* Forcing citizens into 15 minute cities
* Global medical tyranny
This is just a short list.
You will see these themes throughout many of the other elements here - as the globalist efforts are currently on a progressive nature - eating the elephant one bite at a time - via indoctrinated and funded lackeys. The scenario is being crafted for a major ‘emergency’ (or emergencies) that permits global consolidation of power from which their global goals can be forced on the world. We can’t lose sight that they are fixed on a long term effort that is now coming to fruition.
Economy –
The Federal Reserve left the main U.S. interest rate unchanged Wednesday, waiting to see if its historic series of rate hikes over the last 18 months gets inflation under control.
The central bank kept its main policy rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, citing an easing of economic conditions while also acknowledging that inflation is still higher than its 2% target.
OBSERVATION - I don’t know how I missed this one. But economic news of inflation on the rise and jobs growth reversal and an impending recession (though they won’t admit that) may justify them to increase the rate again when they meet in October.
***
The president of the United Auto Workers said Friday the union will expand its strike against major automakers by walking out of 38 General Motors and Stellantis plants in 20 states.
There is also news out of a leaked plan by the UAW to wage the strike for an extended period to push for full capitulation by the automakers to their demands. Mixed in the plan is to pit one automaker against the other to further leverage demands.
biden is expected to show up on the picket lines Tuesday to support the union’s demands. Trump due on Wednesday.
OBSERVATION - The overt support of the strike by biden and the union plans to wage a long duration effort strongly suggest that this is also an effort to send the US economy into a steeper tailspin. I saw estimates that over time this could trigger a loss of something like 3 billion dollars a day to the economy in general. Stacked on top of a more likely recession and other current economic woes this could be devastating.
***
Time is running out for a short term CR to kick the FY2024 funding decisions down the road - congressional staffers getting pre loaded ‘Christmas bonus’ payments to bridge the wage loss. Our military won’t get paid, but a host of others will.
OBSERVATION - This will be chaotic, but perhaps not as chaotic as the 0bama shutdown was. I don’t expect biden to try to close down memorials and parks like 0bama did, but then who really is pulling his strings.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
US President Joe Biden has announced setting up a new office to prevent gun violence, under the leadership of Vice President Kamala Harris, as the pair prepare for next year’s presidential race. The federal office would be dedicated towards finding solutions and supporting communities suffering from shooting incidents. Biden announced it from the White House Rose Garden, alongside lawmakers and families of gun violence victims.
OBSERVATION - Gun control will not pass thru the current congress, so expect this ‘commission’ to seek backdoor means to inflict gun control and gun registration on the public. Harris summed the the communist manifesto for gun control -
“We know true freedom is not possible if people are not safe,”
We know the plan reality is give up your freedoms in order to be ‘safe’.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More questions than answers regarding the loss of a F-35 a few days ago.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
CDC claims to be trying to restore public confidence, but are failing epically with their new calls for masking and new ‘jabs’ for ages 6 months and above.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In a shocking turn around, Gavin Newsom vetoed the bill that would’ve taken children from parents who don’t affirm a child’s gender.
OBSERVATION - Many believe that he is planning on running for President in the near future (in spite of his words to the contrary) and this that alone would’ve cost him votes because moms (who vote predominantly democrat) don’t play when it comes to their kids. There doesn’t seem to be any other reason for vetoing a bill he so strongly pushed for this year.
***
Pressure is beginning to build for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) to resign from office after federal prosecutors indicted him on multiple charges related to alleged corruption. He and his wife received hundreds of thousands of dollars - and even gold bars - for influence peddling. He’s been indicted before, but these charges may well be serous enough to stick. Question is - why is the swamp tossing him under the bus at this time?
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris failed to end the border crisis, so he picks her to end gun violence.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden makes border history with highest illegal crossing attempts and paroles ever recorded in a month: 304,162.
OBSERVATION - These are the kinds of records we really don’t need.
***
biden opening up on his plan for the border crisis:
-Fast track processing at the US border
-Expand legal pathways for citizenship
-Increase the total number of refugees
-Send money to help sanctuary cities
-Speed up work-permits for illegals
OBSERVATION - One can no longer call the Replacement theory “comspiracy”, this is a deliberate move to flood illegals into the country and try to fold them into the electorate where they are likely to vote democrat as well as form a body pool to literally man the extra guns the fed gov has been stockpiling.
***
The Biden administration recently announced plans to send an additional 800 U.S. military members to the southern border to assist with processing migrants but not to aid law enforcement efforts.
OBSERVATION - I really don’t see that much ‘processing’ being done. Mostly the illegals are being dumped on the streets of the US. And with record numbers of illegals (300,000+ per month), 800 individuals are just a drop in the bucket.
***
The City of Santa Ana is considering whether or not to give non-citizens 18 or older the right to vote in municipal elections in the wake of a state court ruling finding a similar measure in San Francisco to be legal.
The official agenda item, in which the council considered “options to place the issue of noncitizen voting in city council and mayoral elections on the 2024 ballot,” would be a significant expansion past San Francisco’s measure, which expands voting to noncitizens, including undocumented immigrants, for school board elections only.
OBSERVATION - The progressive communists are trying to make this effort similar to the ‘taxation without representation’ cry of the revolutionary war. Except that the colonists were viewed as citizens of Britain and not illegal immigrants. This is the progressive attempt of replacement ‘conspiracy’ at a local level, attacking our country one city at a time.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian high command likely shaken from the recent losses of key senior officers and generals in the Ukraine war.
Economic Impact –
Russia plans a huge hike in defense spending next year, swelling to 6% of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.
Moscow doubled its target for defense spending in 2023 to more than $100 billion, Reuters reported exclusively in August, as the costs of the war in Ukraine spiral and place growing strain on Moscow’s finances.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
biden has reportedly said that a limited number of ATACMS missiles will soon be delivered to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Same old, same old. Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 15 Shahed drones. The main focus of attack reportedly was the Zaporizhzia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The big news this morning was yesterdays missile strike taking out the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol. High on the list are reports of Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet being one of the Russians killed.
Among severely wounded include, Col. Gen. Alexander Romanchuk and Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsekov, with at least 9 dead and 16 injured among Russian military personnel. Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is occurring.
The attack caught them during a meeting that put them together along with staff and aids.
Another Russia command post was obliterated as well. The HQ for the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army was destroyed in Melitopol by a HIMARS GMLRS strike wounding its commander, possibly Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin, and killing or injuring other high-ranking staff. These commanders are leading the defense of southern Ukraine.
Tokmak Axis -.
More unconfirmed reports that a breakthrough is developing in the Verbove region. In the past few days, Ukraine has passed armor through the ‘dragons teeth’ barriers and deep behind the defensive lines - so far with out an effective Russian response. These vehicles are now providing addition, effective direct firepower on Russia positions, enabling quicker Ukrainian movements to seize them.
Bakhmut Axis -
Recent Russian withdrawals from the south of Bakhmut has them setting up along the N-S rail line that also passes through the middle of Bakhmut. Ukraine is in an operational pause as it consolidates and redirects the forces to eventually breach the line and continue driving Russia to the east while expanding the encirclement of Bakhmut on the south side.
Crimean front —
Locals report explosions in Sevastopol again. A plume of smoke is visible. The air raid sirens sound also. Some suspect an ammo dump was hit.
OUTLOOK –
I thought I’d quickly summarize some of the key Ukraine’s deep attack strategy action in Crimea since 23 August, in chronological order.
- strike on 1 S400 battery
- strike destroying 1 Kilo, 1 LST, 1 S400 battery
-strike on fleet command post
-strike on Saki Airbase
-strike on Fleet HQ.
The action has not given Russia any time for a breather or to reconfigure any kind of effective response. The Russian leadership may be in a state of denial after all these years (since 2014) to think they were out of reach of Ukrainian attacks. This is where the discussion of ATACMS come in big. The British/French (and eventually German) cruise missiles can range over Crimea-they are still vulnerable to air defense actions by the Russian. The ATACMS is a ballistic missile - a backdoor ‘hypersonic’ system though the US doesn’t designate it as such. Very very strong against Russian ADA systems, providing a substantially higher number of missiles penetrating defenses than the cruise missiles. Their range places all Crimea in range, as well as key facilities in Russia proper.
Ukrainian employment may be similar to how they got the cruise missiles up and running. Hit a few closer, though important targets, then break out as they have on key deeper targets. I’ll bet my bars that the Kerch Bridge will be the ultimate target for ATACMS because the ballistic transjectory will take them well above intervening Russian air defense assets forcing a much more difficult intercept of terminal mode warheads. Ukraine may well flood the zone with drones and cruise missiles to insure penetration. The missiles have a big enough warhead to put the bridge out of business once and for all and thus isolate Crimea from substantial logistical support and severely cripple support to the southern front. Ukrainian efforts in the south are focusing on splitting the so called ‘land bridge’ from the east, further damaging Russian efforts. This will leave the Russian forces out of ammo, fuel and troop / armor replacements.
I’m expecting to see ATACMS in combat no sooner than a month from now, as the logistical wheels move slowly.
Finally, the hit on the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol is devastating for forces facing the Ukraine offensive in the south, especially along the Tokmok axis. You just don’t bounce back from losing that level of general officers and staff in the middle of one of the most critical battles to date. This is going to cause confusion on the front lines as new chains of command are reestablished, inducing a limited ‘freeze’ in response to Ukrainian operations. Lower level officers will be forced to organize defense of much larger elements and face the logistical chaos that currently characterizes the Russian army. Lack of senior level leadership to divide up logistical support will create competition for resources that has plagued them since almost day one.
The hit has also had to have shaken the Kremlin - Ukraine has been hammering key command centers and Russia has been losing senior officers at a rate not seen since early in the war. Ukraine has stripped them of many of the options available and none of the remaining options are looking good for the Russians.
I see more disjointed operations by Russia while Ukraine continues its program of surgical strikes against key Russian targets, both tactically as well as deep.
Israel –
The IDF on Friday evening struck three military posts belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip. The strikes came hours after incendiary balloons fired by Gaza-based terrorists towards southern Israel sparked a fire near the border.
OBSERVATION - Though relatively uncommented on over the past weeks, Israel has been dealing a lot with Hamas supported terror attacks coming out of Gaza and the Jenin refugee ‘camps’. Now in the dry season, the fire ballon season is again on the rise and causing further friction.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
The Azeri army is progressively securing the N-K territory as Armenian units surrender and exit the area.
Large protests continue in the capitol of Armenia against the capitulation to Azeri demands.
The purpose of 'processing' is to give documentation to illegals so they're not 'undocumented'.
What does that mean? It means the cartels hold the monopoly on selling US citizenship.
If a person tries to go around the cartels by flying directly from China to LA RATHER than walking across the river AND paying the cartels $30,000 - they won't be 'documented'. Processing is a favor to the cartels. It secures their brand as the only way to US citizenship.
Events in the US are at such a perverse level that it makes it hard to peruse the interwebs. It seems that all the safety mechanisms have been removed and the country and world are streaming at high speed to a train wreck of massive proportions.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The U.S. Treasury Department this week announced its “Principles for Net Zero Financing & Investment,” which pushes banks, insurance companies, and asset managers to unite behind U.N. climate goals.
The principles, issued on Sept. 19, state that “Treasury and the Biden-Harris Administration welcome robust net-zero commitments made by financial institutions. Treasury hopes financial institutions will use the Principles to support the implementation of their commitments.”
According to a statement by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the principles “establish that financial institution net-zero commitments should be in line with limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. They affirm that financial institutions that have made these commitments should develop transition plans with clear practices, targets, and metrics.”
These principles, which the Treasury Department says are “voluntary,” direct banks, insurance companies and asset managers to focus particularly on “Scope 3” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scope 3 entails those emissions from a company’s customers and clients.
Mr. Skrmetti recently led a coalition of 22 state attorneys general, who penned a letter to members of the Net Zero Financial Service Providers Alliance (NZFSPA), one of several U.N.-sponsored net zero clubs.
The letter stated: “both federal and state law broadly prohibit business competitors from engaging in concerted action in restraint of trade or commerce. Accordingly, collective agreements to ‘restrict production, sales, or output’ are almost always illegal.”
Robert Bork, Jr., president of the Antitrust Education Project, also voiced his concerns.
“This U.S. Treasury document encourages the network of powerful investment companies and NGOs to violate antitrust law with government support. It encourages a restraint of trade, a form of collusion outlawed by the Sherman Antitrust Act,” Mr. Bork told The Epoch Times.
OBSERVATION - With public blowback from ESG mandates in the private sector, now the push is increasing from the govt. Of course, these mandates follow WEF guidances. Follow the money. The private/govt collusion on global warming seeks to worm its way around congressional oversight and laws by having the private sector do the dirty work. I’ve seen this in many other sectors as well, with govt urging companies implementing woke policies and reaping the consequences thereof.
***
Bill Gates has been all over the map this week. On Thursday, Gates made a sudden U-turn on his climate doom narrative and now expects “No temperate country is going to become uninhabitable.”
This follows his pronouncement of the biggest cause of global warming -
“Of all the climate areas, the one that people are probably least aware of is all the fertilizer and cows, and that’s a challenge,” Gates said, as reported by CNBC.
A report from the University of California, Davis, said just a single cow can belch about 220 pounds of methane a year, and that’s not to mention the production of the same gas in manure, which is often used as a fertilizer.
OBSERVATION - This agriculture statement is interesting since Kerry also speaking about same recently, demanding reactions in agriculture. Gates is a dyed in the wool depopulationist and is willing to look to what ever means is available and necessary to achieve the goal of removing billions from the planet.
Remember - domestic cattle are but one of the animal species on this planet and I’ll bet you almost anything that those other animals contribute as much or more. But that is not the goal - the goal is to reduce human population via famine. I know that is a harsh view, but the persistent drum beat from the likes of kerry and gates, overlaid on the Dutch trying to essentially close down all the farms and ireland seeking to reduce herds by 200,000 heads, among others, no other conclusion can be made.
Economy –
Employers in the U.S. are expecting to see the largest increase in healthcare costs in a decade in 2024, according to forecasts from healthcare benefit consultants — although workers may avoid some of the increase due to the tight labor market.
Benefit consultants from Mercer, Aon and Willis Towers Watson see employers’ healthcare costs jumping by a range of 5.4% to 8.5% in 2024 because of medical inflation, high demand for expensive weight-loss drugs and the wider availability of high-priced gene therapies.
OBSERVATION - Being retired and in the transition mode to Medicare, health costs are a concern. I recently turned down a MRI to monitor my pancreas because my payment was well over $1000 - way outside my budget capabilities - and I have what many would consider to be one of the gold plans. Others see Medicare costs rising faster than Social Security increases. In today’s economy with lingering high inflation, an additional 5 -8% increase is going to put the hurt on a lot of families and in the end increase health problems as some procedures will just be abandoned as too expensive. There have been many common sense health care reforms put forth in the past, but they seem to be silently shelved thru the Big Pharma / Big medical lobby.
***
30 yr mortgage rates are officially above 8%.
OBSERVATION - Housing will not recover for a long time, and these rates are also being reflected other loans and credit cards.
***
Rite Aid, one of the top-10 largest pharmacies in the United States, proposed closing up to 500 of its stores in bankruptcy.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday the drugstore chain is “negotiating with creditors over a chapter 11 plan that would substantially shrink its operational footprint.”
If Rite Aid closed 500 stores, that would equal approximately 25% of its 2,000+ drugstores nationwide.
The Philadelphia-based company faces more than $3.3 billion in debt and over a thousand federal lawsuits alleging it oversupplied opioids, the Journal reported.
OBSERVATION - The other silent factor is likely the increase in organized looting that have hit a lot of these businesses of late. Some estimates of over 100 Billion in losses across the board this year alone.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Major metropolitan areas have had substantial losses of police since the 2020 riots. Reviewing videos of recent Antifa et al protests (albeit on a relatively small scale) on trend is concerning. In many of those instances, police are being forced to physically confront aggressive protestors - and typical riot controls are absent. Such things as tear gas, pepper spray, puppet pellets and bean bags. This is largely due to the leftist city and state leadership outlawing police the use of those systems. Should things go sideways, police will be seriously overwhelmed and substantial injuries will be received in future confrontations. This also means that riots will destroy millions (billions) of dollars in structures being burned down and other vandalism/destruction of property as police seek to contain riots rather than stop them. In hardest hit towns like Minneapolis, very little rebuilding has occurred, with building after building boarded up.
***
Seeing Antifa / Transtifa ramping up violence against protestors rejecting trans grooming of children in schools. They are getting improved turnout and cranking up the violence aspect in part to get venues for anti-grooming protests denied. This is still on a local basis, but the interconnections are being firmed up for a readiness to respond to a broader ‘issue’ should on appear.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States Military Academy in West Point, New York is being sued for racial discrimination in its selection process.
On Tuesday, lawyers representing the Students for Fair Admissions sued West Point for alleged race and ethnicity discrimination in admissions decisions, according to Politico. SFFA is the anti-affirmative action group that tanked race-conscious admissions practices at Harvard in a Supreme Court decision.
SFFA contends that West Point is violating the Fifth Amendment with its skewed admission practices. The Fifth Amendment contains an equal-protection principle that binds the federal government.
“Instead of admitting future cadets based on objective metrics and leadership potential, West Point focuses on race,” the lawsuit claimed. “In fact, it openly publishes its racial composition ‘goals,’ and its director of admissions brags that race is wholly determinative for hundreds if not thousands of applicants.”
OBSERVATION - Now we have a replacement for the weasel Milley - Gen Brown - who aggressively advocates race based promotions ands eliminating half of our white fighter pilots to promote ‘equity’ rather than merit.
West Point “ring bangers” were often insufferable when I served. Now with the double blanket of racial preferences, they better hope there isn’t a war because fragging - once a thing of the past - will rise to the surface once again.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Govt shut down looms even closer as the end of the Fy deadline closes to within a week. How harsh will the regime / democrats try to make it on the average person out there? Not sure, but I don’t think republicans are positioning themselves to provide an honest answer.
Biden / Harris Watch –
With increased scuttlebutt that biden may be on the edge of pulling out of the 2024 race - whether he in his withered mind wants to or not - the questions shift to replacements.
To toss harris under the bus as well could strike the ire of democrats black voter base - unless something is done to appease them.
Hence the increased chatter of putting Michelle (Mike) 0bama into the mix - many want it to be the president candidate. Newscum, trying to place distance between his maneuvering for 2024 and his real goals is in the mix as well. Hillary, though popular among some democrat circles, see large negatives that come with her illegal and unethical actions of the past and could spur greater swing towards Trump.
Driving some of this is a recent ABC based poll that shows Trump destroying biden in all categories, especially among independents - by double digits. So something has to give and biden is reportedly in the cross hairs. Most likely will be given kid glove treatment - perhaps that his physical conditions are becoming more than he can handle, etc. Harris will be brutially pushed aside being even less liked than biden and a certifiable twit on her own.
This leave Newscum and mz 0bama as the two front runners for replacement. It will be hard for democrats to pull this ultra leftist duo to the center, but expect crazy support from the progressive base.
Wild card circles back to Kennedy and Manchin, possibly running as a third party ‘moderate’ ticket. That will spell doom for the democrat presidential machine in 2024.
Illegal Immigration –
According to the New York Post, 3.8 million migrants have entered the United States since Biden took office in 2021, 1.5 million of whom made the crossing illegally and have not been caught. The number of “gotaways” is triple the number recorded during the last three years of the Trump presidency.
Fiscal Year 2023 is set to eclipse the record-setting totals posted the previous year. As of May, 530,000 gotaways were reported, leaving four months to surpass the 600,000 tallied in FY2022. Over half of the 2,345,600 Notices to Appear (NTA) granted to migrants since Biden took office have been handed out in FY2023.
OBSERVATION - The forecast is for more significant increases in the flow of illegals in the coming months - at new record setting volumes. Some figure that at this new rate, another 3 million could pour over the border in FY 2024.
The democrat goal is to flood the system, making it virtually impossible to deport these millions and it provides leverage to their debate to issue some sort of amnesty or citizenship because we can’t deal with all of them. IMHO we’ve passed a turning point that short a massive, citizen supported deportation effort our country has lost its national status. Remember, even before Trump, illegal immigration was a problem. Under this regime it has taken an order of magnitude jump. The US is fast approaching European levels of migrants - migrants who want all the benefits, but not willing to integrate or embrace the culture and laws of the country. Time is running out before these illegals mass together and start to really destroy our country materially - and in a measure far greater than what they presently are doing.
***
CNN is reporting that Mexico has made an agreement with the United States to deport migrants from its border cities to their home countries and take several actions to deter migrants as part of a new effort to combat the recent surge in border crossings.
Mexican officials met with US Customs and Border Protection officials on Friday in Ciudad Juárez,, Mexico, which is across the border from El Paso, Texas, following the recent spike in illegal crossings into the US, which temporarily closed an international bridge and paused Mexico’s main cargo train system.
As part of the agreement, Mexico agreed to “depressurize” its northern cities, which border the El Paso, San Diego and Eagle Pass, Texas, where the mayor has declared a state of emergency. They will also implement more than a dozen actions to prevent migrants from risking their lives by using the railway system to reach the US-Mexico border, according to Mexico’s National Migration Institute.
OBSERVATION - Mexico is happy to comply because the crush of illegals is a skyrocketing burden to its economy and border areas as well. Human trafficking by cartels and associate drug related crime has been hard to control in the past, now becoming unmanageable under current conditions.
RELATED - Immigration watchers are noting a dramatic rise in illegals piling onto freight trains headed to the US border.
China –
Taiwan warns that increasingly aggressive Chinese operations around Taiwan could result in a live fire incident.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
RUMINT-
Some are commenting that it appears that Russian is beginning to abandon Crimea as a headquarters for its Black Sea fleet as well as major command center for Ukrainian operations. Recent attacks by Ukraine have exposed just how vulnerable Russian bases and facilities have become. A move of this magnitude will definitely work its way down to the front lines, visible as disrupted command and control as the headquarters are moved ever farther away from the fight to ‘safer’ territory.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued slow, methodical progress by Ukraine on the southern and eastern fronts.
Tokmak Axis -.
Slow but steady, evidence is growing that the crack in the Russian line of defense at Verbove is widening. While on the other sided of the salient, Ukraine forces continued to pick their way southward of Robotnye.
Russian Territory –
A drone attacked an administrative building in Kursk. The roof was slightly damaged, - according to Governor Roman Starovoyt
OUTLOOK –
More being leaked out regarding the delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine. It appears that instead of the single warhead and 300km range ATACMS missiles that could destroy the Kerch Bridge, Ukraine will likely be provided the cluster warhead variant, reportedly with a reduced range of 140km (though there is discussion on if these have been extended to a 300km range)
The arrival of the APAM cluster munitions equipped ATACMS Block 1 and 1A missile delivers 950 munitions in a 1 km by 1 km area. The ability to take out most of a grid square will cause the push back of VKS Buk, S-300 and S-400 surface to air missile batteries out of Southern Ukraine and all of Donbas. Other soft targets like logistic/ammo depots and troop concentrations will also be highly threatened.
Not the Kerch Bridge destroyers some had anticipated, the capability to massively take out Russian air defense systems will open the door for more cruise missile forays - which could take out the Kerch Bridge, as well as free up Ukraine fix wing aircraft strikes using advanced, gps guided gliding bombs to hit key features like strong points on the Russian defensive lines.
The cluster munitions warheads deploy before any air defense missiles can effectively intercept them, increasing their success rate. Ukraine has successfully and ingeniously used systems provided to them to their benefit, so adding a cluster munition ATACMS to the mix will give them a greater degree of flexibility with all their systems.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian media claims Azerbaijani Army is approaching Khankendi, entering the first quarters of the city.
The Russian base in Nagorno Karabakh was hit by forces of Azerbaijan. The Russian army is stationed there as “peacekeeping” force. It is the 2nd major incident of that kind. Few days ago a car carrying Russian soldiers was hit, killing several of them.
OBSERVATION - Much of the world is silent on the actions here.