Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
Globalism / Great Reset –
The EPA will announce new auto pollution limits on Wednesday, aiming for 60% of all new U.S. vehicles sold by 2030 to be all-electric. Only 6 percent of vehicles sold last year were “all-electric.”
OBSERVATION – While this is considerably within the Economic topic, its broader implications are globalist. This regulation would essentially cripple the American car industry as 7 years is insufficient for Detroit to retool and change manufacturing. Add to that the extreme shortage of essential materials for these batteries and the lack of infrastructure and electrical generation capacity to plug these suckers in to have them work.
**
French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must reduce its dependency on the U.S. and avoid getting dragged into a conflict over Taiwan, adding that European talk about support for Taiwan was not credible and would only increase tensions.
OBSERVATION – Evidence that WEF compliant France is joining some of the effort being made to decouple the US dollar as the reserve currency. At least that is how “reduce its dependency” in part is being interpreted.
Economy –
Cattle prices reached $177 per hundredweight (cwt.) last week, beating the previous record of $171 per cwt. set in November 2014.
OBSERVATION – Due in large part to shortages created by cattle herd drawdowns caused by the past couple years of drought combined with high feed and fuel costs. It will take years to rebuild herds to what they were. Until then, beef will continue to be very expensive and then some.
**
American banks experienced a historic contraction in the final two weeks of March, greater than even during the 2008 financial crisis, in the clearest indication yet that credit conditions are tightening as a result of deteriorating economic conditions.
According to Federal Reserve data dating back to 1973, commercial bank lending saw a drop of nearly $105 billion in the two weeks ending March 29th. The final week saw a decrease of over $45 billion, which can be attributed primarily to a decline in small banks’ loan offerings.
Invasion of Illegals –
More Republicans are reportedly embracing the idea of targeted bombing in Mexico to stop the fentanyl crisis in the United States.
The idea began gaining traction after former President Donald Trump started talking about sending “special forces” and using “cyberwarfare” to target cartel leaders, Politico reported Monday.
Rolling Stone reported late last month that Trump asked for “battle plans” to striking Mexico.
OBSERVATION – What the GOP is missing in this equation is that these cartels are more than capable of retaliatory strikes within the US that our law enforcement is unable to stop. Short of completely closing the border, cartels have elements already ensconced in America coordinating drug movements and associated crime. Who knows how many more operatives have made their way (single, military age men) into the country to bolster the cartels. Second - Mexico has increasingly been deploying its military against cartels, with only limited success. Our military would not fare much better under today’s woke command.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
This item has been brewing since last week, but ‘ol mule mouth just cant’ shut up about it. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said she wants Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas impeached and his advisers investigated after media reports identified expensive undisclosed trips Thomas took with American Enterprise Institute Director Harlan Crow.
OBSERVATION - The standard for impeachment of USSC justices has been pretty high, but today’s current democrat leftists want to see no stone unturned in their efforts to get Thomas off the court and swing it to a liberal bench compliant with their demands and agenda. Like with the Trump impeachments, the current charges are a nothing burger being jazzed up to seem as the end of the republic as we know it.
**
Texas legislators introduced SB2334 and HB4903 into the Texas Senate and House, which would require the Texas Comptroller to establish a digital currency fully backed by gold, redeemable for gold or dollars, and create a mechanism for using the digital currency for everyday transactions. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Easily could cross ref to CW2 and Globalism / Great Reset issues. States now setting up parallel govt systems just in case. Still, digital currency is a road we shouldn’t take. It is accepting the premise of digital while still allowing eventual growth into a controlling methodology.
**
The FBI and Justice Department are searching for the source of what is shaping up to be one of the most damaging intelligence breaches in decades. The documents were first posted in January to a small group online on a messaging channel that trafficked in memes, jokes and racist talk.
OBSERVATION – I’m still basing this ‘leak’ as disinformation. If it was a true leak, I’m sure this small group is wetting themselves right now given the govt power to identify the users.
China –
Reportedly China is completing its “exercise” today.
North/South Korea –
N. Korea again unresponsive to daily phone call via inter-Korean liaison line: ministry
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Economic Impact –
Russian President Putin’s special assistant met Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani in Tehran to discuss thwarting Western sanctions through ditching the dollar in bilateral transactions in the hope that this would weaken the US currency.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Ukraine grudgling giving up terrain.
Ukrainian official stated that Russian Airborne (VDV) forces have appeared in Bakhmut. Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southern Bakhmut
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Once again, Ukraine faces a decision point to either withdraw forces to more defendable and resupply able areas, or commit reserves to maintain supply lines. If Ukraine is to be believed, they continue to draw the better Russian forces into the meat grinder and so far they appear to consider the loss ratios to be in their favor.
Israel –
Tensions remain high, but with the passing of Passover and Easter some of the religious trigger points have lessened. Ramadan is still ongoing and will keep things in turmoil.
Iran –
The Iranian Tasnim Agency says that an Iranian technical delegation may visit Riyadh tomorrow to make preparations for the reopening of the Iranian embassy in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia –
See Iran above.
Syria -
Syrian army’s 4th armored division sends reinforcements & weapons to Israel border, according to N12News reports citing Syrian sources.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev - Work on a peace treaty with Armenia is not going so smoothly, but Azerbaijan aims to normalize relations with Yerevan.
“
Texas legislators introduced SB2334 and HB4903 into the Texas Senate and House, which would require the Texas Comptroller to establish a digital currency fully backed by gold, redeemable for gold or dollars, and create a mechanism for using the digital currency for everyday transactions. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Easily could cross ref to CW2 and Globalism / Great Reset issues. States now setting up parallel govt systems just in case. Still, digital currency is a road we shouldn’t take. It is accepting the premise of digital while still allowing eventual growth into a controlling methodology.
“
Both say backed by gold held in the Texas Bullion Depository:
Texas SB2334
https://capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/88R/billtext/html/SB02334I.htm
Sec. 404A.0052. GOLD HELD IN TRUST. (a) The comptroller
serving as trustee or another person appointed by the comptroller
who shall serve as trustee shall hold in trust on the behalf of the
digital currency holders all gold purchased to back the digital
currency. The trustee shall maintain enough gold to provide for the
redemption in gold of all units of the digital currency that have
been issued and are not yet redeemed for money or gold.
(b) The trustee may establish an account in the Texas
Bullion Depository to hold gold purchased to back the digital
currency and may hold the gold otherwise as convenient for the
administration of this chapter.
Texas HB4903
https://capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/88R/billtext/html/HB04903I.htm
“
Sec. 404A.0052. GOLD HELD IN TRUST. (a) The comptroller
serving as trustee or another person appointed by the comptroller
who shall serve as trustee shall hold in trust on the behalf of the
digital currency holders all gold purchased to back the digital
currency. The trustee shall maintain enough gold to provide for the
redemption in gold of all units of the digital currency that have
been issued and are not yet redeemed for money or gold.
(b) The trustee may establish an account in the Texas
Bullion Depository to hold gold purchased to back the digital
currency and may hold the gold otherwise as convenient for the
administration of this chapter.
“
Globalism / Great Reset –
Ford Motor Company announced BlueOval City in 2021. BlueOval City is a $5.6 billion electric truck and battery production facility that is scheduled to be operational in 2025. To complete a roadway to the project, the state of Tennessee uses eminent domain to force farmers to sell land worth $200,000 per acre for only $3,750 per acre, the value before the project was announced.
OBSERVATION – Use of eminent domain to move ‘green’ projects forward was endorsed recently and was noted here a few days ago.
Wuhan virus –
Yesterday, Biden has acceded to a congressional resolution ending the national Covid emergency — “weeks before it was set to expire alongside a separate public health emergency, as the AP puts it. The AP adds that Biden signed the measure behind closed doors.
Economy –
The federal budget deficit soared to $1.1 trillion for the first half of fiscal 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Monday, $430 billion more than in the same time frame the previous year. The rising deficit heralds a worsening budget picture for the federal government, especially as interest rates rise.
OBSERVATION – The rise of the deficit will impact talks on the national debt ceiling rise. This will only contribute further to the ecnomic chaos when the dominos start to fall.
Invasion of Illegals –
The Justice Department has said that ending the wuhan emergency would terminate the Title 42 migration policy that allows for the rapid deportation of people who illegally cross the US-Mexico border.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Slang words ‘red pill,’ ‘based’ labeled as ‘violent extremism’ by FBI.
OBSERVATION -This would appear silly on face value if it weren’t for all the other ‘triggers’ the alphabet law enforcement agencies have mustered against the right. Their standards have labeled over half the country as domestic terrorists by a dozen other standards. By publically calling out the used of these words, the regime is expecting a language change so those fearful of govt will use other words/phrases. Orwellian.
**
Once again a deranged leftist democrat has gone on a shooting spree. Connor Sturgeon, the 25-year-old gunman who is suspected of killed at least four people, including a police officer, and injuring eight others on Monday in a Louisville, Kentucky bank, has been revealed to to be a registered democrat and posted anti-Trump and pro-lockdown posts on Reddit.
**
Speaking of deranged leftists, Little Steven Van Zandt, E Street Band guitar player and longtime close friend of Bruce Springsteen, reportedly posted and then deleted a hate-filled rant on Twitter Sunday that called for the genocide of Republicans.
Van Zandt’s rant was screen-capped and reposted. Text: “Outrageous doesn’t begin to describe the actions of these Republican White Supremicist scumbag cowards and pussies that need guns to feel like real men. Gen Z, Gen Y, Gen X will unite and exterminate these cockroaches once and for all”
OBSERVATION – Another among many who are speaking what many of the Marxist left desire towards those on the right.
**
Window boarding are being put up across Akron, Ohio ahead of the grand jury proceedings over the police officers who shot dead a black gunman following a car chase last year.
OBSERVATION - Will likely cause some local riots, but so far national coordination of protests not seen.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States and the Philippines on Tuesday launch their largest combat exercises in decades that will involve live-fire drills, including a boat-sinking rocket assault in waters across the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait that will likely inflame China.
The annual drills by the longtime treaty allies called Balikatan — Tagalog for shoulder-to-shoulder — will run up to April 28 and involve more than 17,600 military personnel.
OBSERVATION - China has increasingly been bullying the Phillippines around disputed waters for a while now. They have sought out the US as a partner to help patrol these disputed areas. Exercise also works to help heal rifts that occurred when the Phillippines kicked the US military out of the nation a couple decades ago.
**
U.S. Strategic Command to hold nuclear command and control exercise tomorrow. This is an annual drill and not a sign of some impending event.
Cyber Warfare –
The FBI recently warned consumers against using free public charging stations, saying crooks have managed to hijack public chargers that can infect devices with malware, or software that can give hackers access to your phone, tablet or computer.
China –
PLA Eastern Theater Command completed patrol, military exercises around Taiwan Island. The final day’s worth of exercises yesterday reportedly were to simulate the surrounding of the Island and its blockade.
The last day saw 91 PLA aircraft and 12 vessels were detected around the nation, 54 of the detected aircraft had crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the SW & SE ADIZ.
OBSERVATION – A blockade of Taiwan would be preferable to China in that it relies on imports for fuel and food. It could avoid major conflict – provided that the rest of the world does not challenge the blockade. The exercises have provided a unique window into China’s tactics to blockade Taiwan. Such is the double edge of such exercises - execute your plans and give your opponent the opportunity to see some of the cards you are holding.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
Russia claiming to have hit major Ukrainian logistics centers, disrupting reported build up plans of the Ukrainian spring offensive. No confirming reports found from other sources.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
There is a massive amount of disinformation floating around out there. Much of it playing down Ukraine’s capabilities to successfully conduct its planned offensive.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Ukraine giving up terrain very grudgingly. Intensity at both areas appears to have declined over the last 24 hours.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue.
A lot of Russian related propaganda on the extensive defensive lines constructed to thwart the anticipated Ukrainian offensive. This is WW2 design and technology. As with obstacles, Russia has to be able to respond to penetrations and I think that Ukraine will keep them pretty well spread out trying to defend all.
I am still evaluating the so called classified leak(s) as being largely disinformation.
Belarus -
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko requested a formal mutual defense pact with Russia on Monday during a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Lukashenko asked for guarantees that Moscow would defend his country if attacked by the West.
ping above
SMH, news comes in surges.
Globalism / Great Reset –
(CNN) — The US Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to release strict new proposed federal emissions standards for light-duty vehicles that, if implemented, would move the US car market decisively toward electric vehicles over the next decade.
The EPA is considering emissions standards that could make up to two-thirds of new passenger vehicles sold in the US electric by 2032, according to a source familiar with the proposal.
If implemented, the new greenhouse gas performance standards would start for light-duty vehicles that are model year 2027 and gradually increase through model year 2032.
By 2032, the rules would ensure that 64% to 67% of all new-car sales in the US would be electric vehicles, according to the source.
OBSERVATION – I think I noted this move recently. Basically a reset of the automotive industry and an elimination of a large portion of the population from owning an automobile.
**
New Zealand – dubbed the Saudi Arabia of milk for its dominant role in global dairy trade – wants its farmers to pay a world-first levy on agricultural emissions by 2025 to help reduce agriculture’s climate footprint.
OBSERVATION - Globalists going after farmers and ranchers again. Starve the world into population reduction.
**
The Federal Ministry of Economics, headed by Robert Habeck (Green party) has “GROSSLY MISCALCULATED” the cost of removing oil and gas heating systems from homes and buildings, and installing heat pumps in their place by 2045. Instead of 132 billion euros cost by 2045 for citizens, the real price tag will be a whopping 621 billion euros! The total real price tag for all buildings will be 776 billion euros.
OBSERVATION – This is in part why there will be a global ‘reset’ as all these initiatives are designed to kill the global economies with totally unrealistic mandates. You can’t reset something until it is broken.
**
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), similar to the private Federal Reserve here in the United States, has launched 14 different central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot programs in an effort to shift the country entirely to a cashless society.
The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) reportedly partnered with Grollo Carbon Ventures (GCV) to launch the trading of so-called Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), which are tokens backed by “nature-based and real-world assets,” according to Reclaim the Net.
“When applied to carbon markets, tokenization has the potential to improve efficiency and transparency, reduce risk and preserve the unique characteristics of underlying projects to incentivize investment in climate solutions,” announced Nigel Dobson, ANZ’s banking services head about the venture.
OBSERVATION – The movement towards a global, CBDC programmed currency moves forward in incremental steps. In the land down under, they are more aggressive – having stronger WEF trained minions. Here they appear to be accelerating the merger of the digital currency with carbon credits, only a step away from monitoring carbon footprint of the individual and individual social credit scoring. Some have been noting that the WEF minions are tackling the CBDC issue on a regional basis, working to eventually bring all into a common, global system. Remember back in the Before Years of the efforts to bring the Americas into a common economic pool. The EU has already been working that side for a while. Now BRICS is being formed to tackle other aspects of economic unity.
**
In a broad sense, much of Europe is moving away from its ties with the US and drifting towards what French President Macron calls “strategic autonomy” . This move is also coupled with a move towards increasing ties with China and a reluctance to get involved with any Taiwan-related disputes.
**
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook slightly as higher interest rates cool activity but warned that a severe flare-up of financial system turmoil could slash output to near recessionary levels.
The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report that banking system contagion risks were contained by strong policy actions after the failures of two U.S. regional banks and the forced merger of Credit Suisse. But the turmoil added another layer of uncertainty on top of stubbornly high inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The IMF is now forecasting global real GDP growth at 2.8% for 2023 and 3.0% for 2024, marking a sharp slowdown from 3.4% growth in 2022 due to tighter monetary policy.
OBSERVATION – WEF/GGR minions will be examining this info for more ways to manufacture their global shut down of the economy in order to implement their reset.
Wuhan virus –
A federal appeals court ruled Monday that three individuals who sued the Kentucky governor for their right to assemble for worship during COVID-19 must be paid over $270,000 in attorney’s fees.
Randall Daniel, Theodore Roberts, and Sally O’Boyle sued in August 2020 after they received notices logging their attendance at Maryville Baptist Church’s Easter Service and informing them they must quarantine or face “further enforcement measures.” The group alleged Democratic Governor Andrew Beshear’s bans on religious gatherings and interstate travel violated their constitutional rights, which the Sixth Circuit affirmed in May 2020, according to court documents.
On Monday, the Sixth Circuit upheld a district court ruling awarding the congregants $272,142.50 in attorney’s fees, rejecting the governor’s challenges.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/04/11/governor-shut-down-church-pay-fee-kentucky-andrew-beshear/
OBSERVATION – Excellent news. Govt allowed Walmarts to be widely open, but restricted clearly established constitutional rights otherwise. More and more of these lawsuits are coming out against city/state gvts for their abuse of religious rights. It may or may not serve as a deterrent to future rights grabs.
Economy –
The Biden administration proposed actions Tuesday that would significantly reduce water supplies in seven western states amid severe drought conditions that stretch back decades.
The Department of the Interior (DOI) released a draft proposal that highlighted two potential actions it could take to combat the Colorado River Basin’s deteriorating water levels. The two proposals would each consist of federally-mandated supply reductions for states that are dependent on the river system which provides water for more than 40 million Americans and is vital for western states’ economies.
OBSERVATION – The proposals being looked will impact numerous economic sectors in varying degrees. Kalifornia could either benefit or have its agriculture smacked hard – depending on the proposal implemented. Urban dwellers will see their sunny oasis’s forced to cut way back.
**
Small business credit availability is reportedly dropped to 20 year lows. Analysts are linking this to a potential commercial real estate collapse and its impacts on small banks.
OBSERVATION – I’m not a financial wiz, but clearly if small businesses are seeing credit drying up, then if/when the recession hits they will be the first to go and that will suck the air out of a large segment of the economy. Some could associate that with an effort to force people to rely on the big box store economic model – similar to the wuhan lockdowns that shut these same small businesses down, but permitted the biggies like Walmart to stay open. The rumbling are out there
**
The CPI rose 0.1 percent in March, lower than the expected 0.2 percent. The largest contributor to the rise was the shelter index, offsetting a decline in the energy index.
OBSERVATION – The energy index is on the rise now in April, with spot reports of increases in natural gas and gasoline.
**
Walmart is closing four stores in Chicago. Walmart said that the stores have never been profitable and that their Chicago area operations are losing tens of millions each year.
OBSERVATION – Not that any of the attendees of the DNC Nat Con will be visiting walmarts during their bash. Most likely the cause of the losses are theft – reason Walmart and other chains are closing stores in democrat strongholds like Portland and San Fran.
**
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attempted to reassure Americans about the state of the global economy at a press conference on Tuesday. While acknowledging the possibility of an economic downturn, she said she did not anticipate one and believes that the U.S. banking system remains strong.
“I’ve not really seen evidence at this stage suggesting a contraction in credit, although that is a possibility,” Yellen said. “I believe our banking system remains strong and resilient; it has solid capital and liquidity.”
“So I’m not anticipating a downturn in the economy, although of course that remains a risk.”
OBSERVATION – Cannot grant much credibility to her claims, remembering just how far off the mark she was when she said inflation was only ‘transitory’ a couple of years ago, and we are still suffering thru its impacts.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden in Ireland for no apparent reason.
CW2/Domestic violence –
House Republicans said Monday they have new information showing the FBI has been trying to develop undercover sources inside Catholic Church parishes throughout the U.S. in search of radical elements within the religious faith. The allegation follows a former FBI agent recently revealing a since-retracted field office memo, characterizing Catholics with a devotion to the traditional Latin Mass as possible domestic threats.
OBSERVATION – Connect this with the VA cancelling Catholic priests from serving parishioners at VA hospitals and you see where this regime is headed. Cut off one pieces at a time.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Democratic National Committee announced that their 2024 national convention would be held in Chicago from 19 to 22 August after a concerted lobbying effort by Illinois politicians.
OBSERVATION – Less than two years for Chicago’s uber leftist mayor to get crime under control – or not.
**
Manhattan’s district attorney has sued Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), alleging the top Republican member has launched a campaign meant to intimidate. Jordan, a Republican, has launched “a transparent campaign to intimidate and attack District Attorney Bragg, making demands for confidential documents and testimony from the District Attorney himself as well as his current and former employees and officials,” Bragg, a Democrat, claimed in the new suit, lodged in federal court in New York.
House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, shot back at Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on Tuesday over what the lawmaker said was a naked effort to obstruct congressional oversight.
“First, they indict a president for no crime,” Jordan tweeted after Bragg sued to block House GOP subpoenas of prosecutors who might have conflicts of interest with their office’s efforts to hang charges on former President Donald Trump.
“Then, they sue to block congressional oversight when we ask questions about the federal funds they say they used to do it.”
OBSERVATION – Key pivot point of congressional leverage is that Bragg is prosecuting a federal level offense and has reportedly spent federal funds in his investigative and prosecutorial efforts. Both actions place him squarely within the purview of federal oversight by Jordan’s committee.
**
The Biden administration involved itself in the raid of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home despite reports that its officials were “stunned” to find out about the news on social media, according to the group America First Legal, which obtained internal government documents related to the raid through a Freedom of Information Act request.
“The evidence further suggests that Biden officials in the Executive Office of the President and the Department of Justice unlawfully abused their power and then lied about it to the American people,” said Reed D. Rubinstein, America First Legal senior counselor and director of oversight and investigations, in a post on social media Tuesday. “This government, it seems, acknowledges no limits on its power to harass, intimidate, and silence its political opponents.”
Rubinstein’s comments come after a Freedom of Information Act request by America First Legal found the FBI initially obtained access to Trump records through a “special access request” from the Biden White House.
OBSERVATION – biden et al LIED, who would have thought.
China –
See Iran on rumored secret talks.
North/South Korea –
Eyes on Saturday for any military parade and missile/nuclear test as it is the Day of Sun - the founder of North Korea’s Birthday (Kim Il Sung, grandfather of Kim Jong Un). USAF ISR aircraft active in the region again this week. Increasing indications North Korea may be about to conduct further missiles or nuclear tests. Communications have gone dark between the North and South despite routine diplomatic calls from the south. A USAF RC-135V is currently up over the region on ISR.
OBSERVATION – in the past, NK would do something spectacular like this, but recent parades have not resulted in major weapons tests. With NK refusing to pick up the hot line and other factors, this may change this time. Needless to say a lot of intel eyes are watching.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia launched an ICBM carrying dummy warheads into Kazakhstan, according to Russian media.
Logistics –
See Iran on secret talks.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Russian State Duma approved a law on electronic register of military eligible men. Those who were summoned to military enlistment office will be banned from traveling abroad and driver’s license will be suspended.
- Russia’s only aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, currently doesn’t have a crew. This adds another hurdle to getting the ship, which finally departed its drydock at the Sevmorput Naval Shipyard in Russia’s northwestern Murmansk region in February, into any kind of real service. Since 2017, Admiral Kuznetsov has been undergoing a labored overhaul effort, during which time it has suffered multiple fires and a drydock sinking.
The Russian newspaper Izvestia first reported on April 10 that Admiral Kuznetsov’s crew is in the process of being reformed. According to a machine translation of the article, anonymous sources within the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed to the newspaper that preparations for the formation of Admiral Kuznetsov’s new crew have begun, although when exactly this started remains unclear. It’s also uncertain when this process will be finalized, owing to the significant challenges of finding and training the personnel needed to man the vessel.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut. The head of Russia’s Wagner Group paramilitary organization, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed on Tuesday that his fighters controlled over 80% of the Ukrainian city Bakhmut. I expect that he is overstating his success for PR purposed, Russia has progressively been eating away Ukraine control of the town. Remember too, Russia has been trying to take this small town for nearly 9 months now. Russia has been using its tactics of heavy artillery and aerial bombardments to clear sectors of the cities. However, to do so they have stripped artillery from other sectors of the front, thus their offensives in Svatove-Kreminna and Zaporizhizhia Oblast have gotten no where.
It appears that Russian effort is shifting to Avdiivka with reports of Russian attempts to squeeze around the city from the north and south to cut it off. Also renewed operations south of the city to push further on the M-04 highway.
Russian telegram channels spread a video showing a Ukrainian soldier being beheaded live. The video is associated with forces from the Wagner Group.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Widely spread video of russians beheading an Ukraine POW is generating blowback and may harden the resolve of the west to support Ukraine.
Iran –
Politico reports China and Russia are in advanced secret talks with Iran to replenish the Islamic Republic’s supply of ammonium perchlorate, which could also help Moscow replenish its depleted stock of missiles and would violate UNSCR 2231
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
Fire was exchanged between Azerbaijan and Armenia forces, mortar fire has been reported as well. 6 Azeri forces have reportedly been killed. Azerbaijan has reportedly deployed additional forces near the border.
Globalism / Great Reset –
A federal judge granted a request Wednesday from a coalition of 24 states and several industry groups to block environmental regulations redefining how water sources are protected.
Judge Daniel Hovland of the U.S. District Court for the District of North Dakota ruled that the so-called Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule announced by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in late December poses “great” risks to states. The judge also ruled that the federal government should wait until the Supreme Court soon rules on a related case pending before it.
“A balancing of the harms and an analysis of the public interest supports a finding that the risk of harms to the States is great,” Hovland wrote. “There is little public interest or any efficiency gained by implementing a new rule which codifies the ‘significant nexus’ test before the United States Supreme Court issues a decision in Sackett.”
OBSERVATION – WEF stated goals are to reduce agriculture. One way is to restrict how the land can be used. Reality is regulators want to call any piece of land that essentially has a mud puddle or trickle of water at any time a ‘waters of the US” and subject to highly restrictive uses. They have been going after this for decades now and have ruined the lives of many in agriculture.
**
One of the parties that makes up Poland’s conservative government has proposed an “anti-bug law” that would require food products containing insects to be labelled with a special warning. “Dried mealworm larvae, powdered cricket – these are among the insects that the eurocrats and Rafał Trzaskowski [the opposition mayor of Warsaw] call new food,” said Janusz Kowalski, a deputy agriculture minister, while unveiling the plans in parliament yesterday.
In January this year, the European Commission approved products made from mealworm larvae and house crickets as safe for consumption. They were not the first insect products approved by Brussels, and the commission emphasized at the time that “nobody will be forced to eat insects”.
OBSERVATION – Oh yes they will eventually be forced to eat bug, you can bet your bars on that.
Economy –
US Core Inflation (Core CPI YoY) rose to 5.6% in March
Energy prices were down, but shelter is up 8.2% YoY and food is up 8.5% YoY.
OBSERVATION – Uncertainty in fuel and housing has the potential to light the inflation fuse this summer. Fed outlook are for a couple smaller (25 point) raises in the prime rate, but according to the way they do math, it won’t slow inflation down.
**
FWIW, news releases say 5 billion but more up to date analysis shows Anheiser – Busch has lost 7 billion since going woke.
Invasion of Illegals –
Border Patrol agents are seeing an increasing surge of illicit drugs coming across the northern border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) statistics and two agents who spoke with the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Border Patrol agents have already seized 1,500 pounds of drugs at the northern border between October 2022 and February 2023, surpassing the 1,300 pounds seized in all of fiscal year 2022, according to CBP data. Agents are not only dealing with a surge in drugs, but also an influx of illegal migrants.
OBSERVATION – Canada no longers works to stop southward illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the US apparently. As weather gets warmer, I expect this to increase.
Biden / Harris watch –
Arriving in Belfast, the Biden did not recognize the Prime Minister of Great Britain and pushed the “boy” away to salute the gray-haired military man.
CW2/Domestic violence –
AG Garland may have perjured himself before congress when he denied that the FBI attempting to plant informants inside a number of Catholic congregations. The House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government has released new details about the FBI’s targeting of Catholic churches that counters his testimony.
OBSERVATION – Our govt is at war with us. Garland may apply the plausible deniability tactic to say he didn’t know, but such efforts require his knowledge. They will call him out on it but nothing will be done except for a lot of chest beating and heavy grunting.
NOTE – not only the Catholic church, but all non-woke, non-progressive churches are in the DoJ’s cross hairs.
**
The Department of Justice (DOJ) is offering no jail time for a transgender activist who vandalized a church and assaulted a woman after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, according to documents reviewed by Fox News Digital.
Maeve Nota, a 31-year-old who identifies as transgender, broke two glass doors and spray painted “rot in your fake hell,” “kid groomers,” and “woman haters” on the outside of St. Louise Catholic Church in Bellevue, Washington, in 2022 after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, according to the Daily Mail. Nota also assaulted a woman, spray painted another person in the face, attacked police and hit an officer’s vehicle with a bag of spray paint cans, but the Biden administration is planning on offering a plea bargain that would require no jail time, according to Fox News Digital.
OBSERVATION – Two tier justice system. Remember, the DOJ has prosecuted pro-life protesters in the past. Mark Houck was arrested in front of his family by the FBI in an October morning raid after being charged with assaulting an abortion clinic volunteer. Houck pleaded not guilty to the charges and was eventually acquitted in January after the jury deadlocked. DoJ was pushing for 11 years in jail for his ‘offense’.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Wednesday that the U.S. would refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) this year if it is advantageous to U.S. taxpayers.
OBSERVATION – with oil prices expecting to reach $100/barrel, it is highly unlikely any effort will be made to replace the oil biden ordered removed last year.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s urgent request to enter a restraining order against Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) was rejected on April 11, the same day it was filed.
U.S. District Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil, a Trump appointee, turned down Bragg’s emergency request for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against Jordan.
“The Court declines to enter the proposed Temporary Restraining Order and Order to Show Cause,” Vyskocil said, noting that she hadn’t yet received several documents that were referenced in Bragg’s filings.
OBSERVATION – Bragg’s defensive tactics to avoid congressional testimony is not starting well. Some would say incompetently, which is not surprising given that it is apparent he is a very poor lawyer to begin with.
**
Whatever the source and validity of the reportedly 100 + classified documents released through a gamers chat room, the reverberations are being felt globally as US allies and enemies alike respond. Damage control by the regime appears to be significant and ongoing. Worst case – if the documents are valid, decades of alliances between the US and other countries will be demolished. What better way to bring down the US is by stabbing itself in the back.
According to members of the original Discord server, the man behind the massive leak of U.S intelligence documents began to share classified information late last year to protect their small group from the troubles around them. While the Discord server was only 25 people, about half of the users were overseas.
**
Kalifornia’s Feinstein’s ongoing illnesses and mental decline has democrats pushing for her to resign soon. They are losing confidence in her ability to serve the remaining two years of her term.
China –
Initial analysis of China’s three days of large-scale combat drills that Beijing claimed was a response to the Taiwanese president’s recent high-profile trip to the U.S suggest it isn’t “ ready to risk an invasion” – yet. To avoid the high cost and losses of an invasion, this recent exercise focused on a blockade of the island. Still a dangerous course of action, but would not involve tens of thousands of invasion force troops and potential disaster as their ships are intercepted and sunk enroute to their invasion destinations.
**
China is threatening the US and Philippines over plans to significantly increase the US presence in the country. China claims it is a threat to its soverngnity - due to false claims of ownership of Philippine islands in the region.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile Thursday morning, according to Japan’s defense ministry, the first such launch in over two weeks. The missile was directed on a high angle transjectory and total flight time was estimated at about 40 minutes. The transjectory took the missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido resulting in an island-wide alert to get to get to shelter. Details are still lacking on the launch and missile used.
OBSERVATION – This is likely another NK’s tests of a long range ICBM missiles given the flight time and trajectory over Japan. NK compensates for the lack of down range monitoring stations by shooting near vertical rockets. 40 minute flight time is adequate to reach the US. Launch may be related to this weekend’s celebrations.
Japan –
See North/South Korea RE NK missile test.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
It has come to light that last September a Russian pilot had misinterpreted what a radar operator on the ground was saying to him and thought he had permission to fire. The pilot, who had locked on the British aircraft, fired, but the missile did not launch properly.
RUMINT-
Russia may be using other private military companies (PMCs) in an effort to replace Wagner on the battle lines. The quality of these PMCs is unknown, but some reports suggest that they are specialized in infiltration and development of exploitable penetrations of Ukrainian defensive positions. Most likely a effort by the MoD to reduce Wagner’s influence in the Kermlin and Russian politics.
Economic Impact –
Hague court orders Russia to pay Ukraine’s Naftogaz $5 billion in compensation for losses in Crimea. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has ordered Russia to pay $5 billion to Ukraine’s state oil and gas monopoly Naftogaz, the company said on April 13
Ukraine -
One year ago, the Russian Slava-class cruiser “Moskva”, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune missiles. The extensive damage of the ship caused her sinking one day later.
The sinking of the Moskva eventually led to a total withdrawal of all Russian operations in the Western half of the Black Sea, most notably the liberation of Snake Island and the end of the naval blockade of Odesa.
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Bakhmut receiving most of the activity overnight. Growing concern over how long Ukraine can maintain Bakhmut.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Weather is expected to continue to delay any serious Ukrainian offensive until the soil dries out more.
Norway declares 15 intelligence officers working at Russia’s embassy in Oslo personae non gratae.
Black Swans
Interesting science news that the sun may be reaching its cyclic max a year earlier than normal. According to models and historical analysis, the sun spot activity could peak as soon as later this year or early next. Already, it has been a very active cycle with numerous sun spots harboring X-class solar flare potential, and some X class flares being kicked off. Though big, X class flares need to be in the X-15 range to begin to do some serious damage due to the associated CME they involve. The Ontario power grid shut down was due to an X-15 iirc. The go-to site to monitor solar activity is Spaceweather.com
Globalism / Great Reset –
Brazil’s President calls for an end to dollar trade dominance during a speech at the BRICS Bank in Shanghai:
“Every night, I ask myself why all countries are forced to do their trade backed by the dollar? Why can’t we do trade backed by our currency?”
OBSERVATION – The US must be stripped of its power, in this case, the petro-dollar in order for the new global economic reset to fully take effect. The works within the BRICS network is eroding the dollar’s control. At present, the collapse of the dollar as international currency is not immanent, but the ground work is being laid for many countries to replace it within the next few years if the erosion of the US’s economic leadership continues to crumble.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden announced Thursday plans to extend Medicaid and Obamacare coverage to include Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients.
“Today, my Administration is announcing our plan to expand health coverage for Dreamers, the thousands of young people brought to the U.S. as kids. We’re not done fighting for their pathway to citizenship, but we’re getting them the opportunities they deserve in the meantime,” Biden tweeted.
OBSERVATION – They deserve nothing and are here illegally.
Biden / Harris watch –
Arriving in Belfast, the Biden did not recognize the Prime Minister of Great Britain and pushed the “boy” away to salute the gray-haired military man.
Biden vs. the teleprompter in Ireland:
“Ourstiry reminds us — our history, ours, yours and mine — reminds us responsibilities we have to the president! Excuse me, the present.”
During a state dinner in Ireland on Thursday, Joe Biden told his audience to go out and “lick the world” while addressing cooperation between the United States and Ireland.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Transtifa continues to conduct violent protests at events that promote traditional values and oppose the trans agenda.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues. Today is International Quds day, the last Friday of Ramadan.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS George H W Bush and Carrier Strike Group 10 transited the Strait of Gibraltar while operating in the US Navy Europe area of responsibility, April 12, 2023.
OBSERVATION – The Bush has been on a very long deployment and last word I saw had the USS Ford CSG heading to the region to replace it. However, I’ve not seen any word on the Ford’s latest position, and it has gone dark on the latest USNI postings of deployments. I suspect it is still headed to the Med as situations there in the Ukraine and Middle East are still at a critical juncture.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Hard to categorize this incident as it has created a dumpster fire among both sides of the aisle. Clearly this is a mess and I’ll try to sort it out the best I can.
The FBI on Thursday arrested Jack Douglas Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the U.S. Air National Guard, over the leaks online of classified documents that embarrassed Washington with allies around the world. Leaked documents reportedly touched on a variety of topics, ranging from the Ukraine conflict to tensions with South Korea over military aid, as well as matters sensitive matters in China and the Middle East.
Partial Chronology and Key points (H/T Forward Observer)
- The New York Times first reported on the leaked documents on 5 April, after five photographs of classified documents related to the Ukrainian war appeared on Telegram.
- Classified information began to appear in written form on the “Thug Shaker Central” Discord channel as early as October 2022, with posted images dating to as early as 13 January 2023.
- Some of the documents appear to have been part of a series of documents put together for Joint Chiefs of Staff chair General Mark Milley.
- The name of the original leaker on the Discord chatroom was identified as “OG.”
A number of countries have questioned the veracity of some of the leaked documents, including Britain, which said there was “a serious level of inaccuracy” in the information.
The leaks revealed information about allies including Israel, South Korea and Turkey.
U.S. officials believe most of the materials are genuine. Some, however, appear to have been altered to show inflated estimates for Ukrainian battlefield casualties in the war with Russia as well as understated numbers for Russian forces.
Teixeira held the job title of cyber transport systems journeyman. Though he apparently had a TS clearance, there’s no obvious reason why he would have access to the types of documents that were leaked. Early reports suggested that worked at Fort Bragg, NC, during the time the documents were leaked. However, officials at Bragg state that Teixeira was never stationed there. Teixeira also worked at Otis Air National Guard Base in Massachusetts. Otis is located on Joint Base Cape Cod and is the home of the 102nd Intelligence Wing.
(NOTE – I’ve searched far an wide to try to find a link to the facility from which these documents were leaked from and this is the best that I’ve found).
Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said Thursday.
“We continue to review those distribution lists, update them, make sure there’s a need to know,” he said. “And so all indications are, again, this was a criminal act, a willful violation of those, and again, another reason why we’re continuing to investigate and support [the Justice Department’s] investigation.”
OBSERVATION – First some factual stuff, my earlier life in the Army I held some pretty high levels of security access – if anyone bothers to check my profile. I know a thing or two having worked over half of my military time as an intelligence officer in buildings without windows.
1. Thousands of young military folk hold high levels of classification, specific jobs require it. So it is not a surprise that this 21 yr old held a TS (with probable Special Background Investigation) level. (BTW I received my TS clearance as a 23 yr old butter bar) Just because you have the clearance, doesn’t automatically mean you are granted the access – that is supposed to be on a need-to-know basis.
2. Where did he actually access the documents? That to me is the BIGGER issue. IF he was at Bragg for sometime (and semantics by the DoD may mean things), especially the Special Forces elements/intel facility he could have gained access to these kinds of documents. If that was the case, then situational awareness and security procedures at those facilities should make some there soil their pants at a potential term in Leavenworth, joining the airman in making smaller rocks out of big ones.
3. To me it is inconceivable that a National Guard Military Intelligence Wing would have these documents lying around - unless this Joint Base Cape Cod is something other than its mission statement. If this Intel Wing had copies of Milley’s briefing documents lying around, then there are serious issues in who is distributing these documents.
“The Joint Base Cape Cod (JBCC) is a full scale, joint-use base home to five military commands training for missions at home and overseas, conducting airborne search and rescue missions, and intelligence command and control. “
Training bases shouldn’t be holding potential briefing materials to the Joint Chiefs of Staff chair General Mark Milley.
4. One note I’ve found are comments that various NG and Reserve intelligence units have been activated to varying degrees to assist in the analysis of actions in Ukraine. Unconfirmed to a degree, but the bump in intel analysts and efforts would be conceivable. However, so far no evidence that the 102d Intel Wing was a participant in this effort.
5. Scarier thoughts are that some in the deep state fed him materials – potentially altered – in order to disrupt and degrade US leadership of and relations with other countries.
Bottom line to me is that this has really thrown things into a big mess and I’m not sure how it will pan out. One side is calling this guy a ‘hero’ for exposing biden regime lies about issues like Ukraine and our spying efforts. Others calling him a heinous fiend for exposing highly classified materials. Either way, the US’s position in the world has been severely degraded by these leaks by pushing allies away from us because they can no longer trust us.
One word on my previous observations that these leaks were an act of disinformation. There may still be a ember of truth given the reports that some of the documents were altered to misrepresent data and questions on if he was being fed material. Such an act would be used by the current regime to bolster its efforts to censor and control the internet and particularly social media sites. One instance of recent is the beleaguered
RESTRICT Act, which has recently been hammered for being anything but a simple TicTok expulsion bill, but a Patriot Act 2.0 against the internet on steroids.
No one should overlook that his leaks are now being used to justify more social media censorship and government control of the Internet.
China –
China’s Foreign Minister Qin Qang said Friday that China would not provide arms to either side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Qin added that China would also regulate its sale of dual-use material. Qin added that China is maintaining its neutrality “and adopting a prudent and responsible attitude.”
OBSERVATION – This goes against some of the other govt policies that China has stated that they are supporting Russia. Their red line is clearly being exposed on shipping munitions. Dual use items developed quickly into an issue as well. But these statements fall in line with the sudden cooling of China towards Russia following Xi’s meeting with putin.
North/South Korea –
Images of North Korea’s new Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM released by state media Friday. It was test launched Thursday in the presence of Kim Jong Un and his daughter. This new missile was reportedly previewed at the latest NK parade riding a massive TEL. A dependable solid fuel rocket will significantly cut down on the deployment to launch times for NK over liquid fuel systems. Still unclear if NK has perfected reentry vehicles for any warheads and if NK has any warheads small enough to be carried by this (and other ) missiles.
**
US Air Force two B-52H Stratofortress and four F-16 Fighting Falcon conduct a joint air drill over South Korea with South Korean Air Force four F-35A Lightning II on April 14
Japan –
Japan was reportedly unable to fully track the recent NK missile launch. This could be potentially due to radar limitations of the high apogee launch profile of the missile.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian Pacific Fleet launched combat readiness check exercise today.
The United States has not yet given permission for the arrival of a special plane of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, and has not issued visas to members of the Russian delegation to participate in a meeting of the UN Security Council,- reported by CNN, quoting Russian Ambassador to Washington Antonov.
New reports of better cooperation between regular Russian forces and Wagner in the area of Bakhmut.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Bakhmut receiving most of the activity overnight. Reports in Bakhmut are that the Russian regular forces (primarly the VDV) and Wagner have suddenly discovered the art of coordinating their actions and are the reason for much of the recent successes against the town.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Ukraine continues to doggedly hold its supply lines open and still has the capability to maneuver defensively to the chagrin of Russian forces. Short a soon onset of the Ukraine offensive, Ukraine will be forced to continue their orderly withdrawal from Bakhmut while extracting high Russian casualities.
Some are thinking that the Ukraine offensive will include Bakhmut given the severe depletion of forces in the area. That is a possibility, but I suspect such thinking is based on a Russian style frontal attack thought – one that Ukraine generally hasn’t followed. Ukraine has successfully out maneuvered Russia in its major offensives so far. With a lot of Russian assets concentrated in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka regions, there are many other areas that are undermanned and under supported where the Ukaine army could break through and rampage through the Russian rear area – cutting off Russin forces in Bakhmut and Avdiivka regions and forcing their withdrawal without having to conduct direct attacks. The Kharhiv offensive is a good example of that.
Weather forecasts are still for wet weather, though precipitation levels appear to be declining and a potential drying trend is in the offing. That will drive a lot of the timing for any Ukrainian offensive and where the hammer will eventually fall.
Europe / NATO General –
Neighbors Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova signed cooperation agreements in Romania’s capital on April 13 after a trilateral meeting on ways to strengthen security in their Black Sea region to counter threats posed by Russia’n aggression.
Israel –
Israel is on elevated alert for rocket/drone attacks from all fronts on Friday, entire nation currently covered by air defenses, news Israel 13 reports. NOTAM’s issued for Israeli airspace along Gaza, Lebanon and Syrian borders 6km out in anticipation of International Quds Day today. The IDF has been strengthening the air defense systems throughout the country and deployed additional Iron Dome batteries. Reinforcement of the air defense: some of the batteries deployed in the last few days are abnormally directed towards the north (and not towards Gaza)
Quds Force chief met with Hezbollah, Hamas & Islamic Jihad leaders in Beirut last week. The general staff of Iran’s armed forces announced “the countdown to the collapse of the Zionist entity has commenced & it will not exist soon”. Hezbollah, Hamas commanders met with the Chief of Quds in Lebanon too.
Lots of speculation about “Quds day” being celebrated today, and this is the final Friday of Ramadan.
Well, the OLD reason people traded in dollars was we were the most stable currency in the world, had top banks, and a strong transparent stock market. Collecting payments in 3rd world currencies often meant by the time you were paid, the 'pay' was worthless.
Corrupt Biden with his goons and stupid democrats spending like drunk sailors has changed the reality and the perception. I understand people's doubts...
That said,China manipulates their economy in ways worse than Biden... I'd be careful using the renminbi for trade...
There is a multi country agreement labeled "Project Sandman" that aims to abandon the US Dollar and conduct commerce in anything but the US Dollar. 186 countries are part of "Sandman". Destroying the petrodollar is a key objective. There are some bear traps in this scheme. Many countries are trying to substitute the yuan for the US Dollar. This strategy is a mistake as the yuan relies on trade between China and the US. Destroy the US Dollar and the key trade between China and the US goes away. China crashes.
I’m 30 yrs out of the military and these prohibited actions still include me.
Something stinks of this whole thing.
Globalism / Great Reset –
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings 2023, the Digital Currency Monetary Authority (DCMA) announced their official launch of an international central bank digital currency (CBDC) that strengthens the monetary sovereignty of participating central banks and complies with the recent crypto assets policy recommendations proposed by the IMF.
Universal Monetary Unit (UMU), symbolized as ANSI Character, Ü, is legally a money commodity, can transact in any legal tender settlement currency, and functions like a CBDC to enforce banking regulations and to protect the financial integrity of the international banking system.
OBSERVATION – Being put together piecemeal across the globe, the push for a global digital currency is gaining ground. In the latest push, digital currency is being essentially beta tested for transfers between other banks. One similar effort is being tested here in the US. As the bugs are worked out of each of these tests, the next phase will be incorporating the ESG features along with the ‘currency’ being programmable to enforce the ESG requirements. The cumulation of these efforts could easily be in place and executed in the next few years.
**
BlackRock Inc.’s assets swelled to $9.09 trillion in the first quarter as depositors sought cover following the collapse of several US banks by pouring money into the firm’s cash-management funds.
OBSERVATION – BlackRock is the WEF’s strong arm element in the current global economy. It is a leader in forcing corporations to put into effect ESG policies that support the WEF/Global reset agenda. $9 Trillion provides the company with huge leverage. BlackRock also made a name for itself by buying homes during the recent couple years at higher than market prices - pushing most buyers out of the market. Remember the phrase “You will own nothing and be happy”? BlackRock is working towards that end.
Wuhan virus –
A judge in California has ordered San Jose’s Calvary Chapel church to pay $1.2 million in fines for violating COVID lockdown rules, particularly regarding the use of masks.
The ruling was handed down by Superior Court Judge Evette Pennypacker, whose name is reminiscent of a Dickens or “Seinfeld” character, a registered Democrat appointed by former Governor Jerry Brown in 2018.
The Washington Free Beacon reports the Calvary church has filed a separate federal lawsuit against Santa Clara officials. That filing remains pending in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.
They also outline the lengths to which officials in the county became overbearing tyrants during the lockdowns.
“Court documents in both cases reveal that Santa Clara County mounted rigorous surveillance of the church and its individual members, even tracking members’ movements through cell phone data and paying researchers to analyze the results,” they explained.
OBSERVATION – The church is on the right side of history on this one. Studies have shown conclusively that mask has little to no effect in reducing the spread of wuhan. At this level, this judge continues in the misinformation and deliberate attack on Christianity while supporting equally congested and allowed to be open venues like Walmart.
Economy –
Banks in the United States did not have the best year with the housing market in 2022, as they lost money on mortgages last year.
On average, both independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 on every loan that originated last year, making it the first time lenders have lost money since the Mortgage Bankers Association started recording these statistics in 2008, according to a report from the MBA. The average $301 loss on every loan in 2022 is down from the average profit of $2,339 per loan from the year prior, according to USA Today.
“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s vice president of industry analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.”
OBSERVATION – I’ve pointed out that the housing market is a bellweather indicator regarding the health of our economy. By all factors it is saying that the health is poor and declining. First in line for the effects of that decline is the banking sector - from which malaise spreads into other sectors.
**
The American consumer, whose willingness to spend drives the economy, showed signs of faltering in March as retail sales fell by 1 percent, a far sharper decline than analysts expected and five times lower than the prior month’s 0.2 percent pullback.
Consumer spending accounts for around 70 percent of U.S. economic output and retail sales serve as a key barometer.
Retail sales fell for the second month in a row in March, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows, with the 1 percent decline exceeding consensus forecasts of a 0.4 percent drop.
“After adjusting for inflation, though, the story is far worse,” Bilello added, noting that inflation-adjusted real retail sales fell 3.3 percent in year-over-year terms last month.
So-called core retail sales—which strip out automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services—fell 0.3 percent last month. This was after core retail sales grew 0.5 percent in February.
Core retail sales most closely correspond to the consumer spending component of gross domestic product (GDP).
OBSERVATION – Inflation combined with lacking wage growth are hitting this sector. These indicators are pointing towards a recession.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Local leaders assembled outside of Chatham’s Walmart demanding the store remains open 2 days after corporate officials announced they’d close the store this weekend. A pharmacy at the location will close May 12. Neighbors received a 5-day notice.
Background- this store was stripped essentially bare during the 2020 riots. Shoplifting has continued to decimate the store since.
OBSERVATION - You get what you vote for. Defund the police and decriminalize looting, you lose your stores and businesses.
**
The Biden administration is looking at expanding how it monitors social media sites and chatrooms after U.S. intelligence failed to realize classified Pentagon documents circulated online for weeks, officials briefed on the matter say.
OBSERVATION – More and more intrusive actions by the govt making use of an incident to push their agendas. This move for more surveillance was noted yesterday too.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
According to Seattle, WA journalist Katie Daviscourt, the Washington State Legislature passed SB 5599 last night, which allows the state to legally take children away from their parents if they don’t consent to their child’s gender transition surgeries.
OBSERVATION – Kalifornia on track for a similar law. Communism from the start demands total control over children for indoctrination purposes. In this case the radical transtifa cause serves the Marxists by breaking up the nuclear family – one of their foundational goals. One of the foundation stones of a tyrannical govt.
China –
Beijing this week announced revisions to its conscription policy and said that should China enter a state of war, veterans and educated college students can expect to be on top of the list to be drafted. China has positioned these changes as a necessary step to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and to bolster its combat effectiveness.
OBSERVATION – Observers are evaluating this new policy – particularly on how it will be implemented and how the resulting impacts to the Chinese economy could be mitigated with the vast sucking sound of this sector of the working force back into the military.
Japan –
There’s been a loud explosion at a Japanese port during the visit of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. There are no immediate reports of injuries. It appears a smoke bomb was thrown at the Japanese prime minister, according to witnesses. Reports a person has been arrested after an explosion sound of some kind in Wakayama where Japan’s Prime Minister was giving a speech. The security detail secured the Prime Minister who is, it seems, safe and unharmed.
OBSERVATION – A smoke bomb could be the result of an incorrectly constructed bomb.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian Pacific Fleet launched a combat readiness check exercise yesterday – follow up. Russian Pacific fleet vessels sputtered out of their harbors under heavy diesel/oil smoke. Reports are that part of the exercise was to demonstrate to the Chinese that they can be an equal partner in ‘defense’ of the western Pacific region.
**
The leader of PMC “Wagner” Prigozhin suddenly called for an end to the war against Ukraine.
“The ideal option is to announce the end of the Special Military Operation, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense, we really achieved them. We have ground a huge number of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and we can report to ourselves about that the tasks of “SMO” are completed.
Theoretically, Russia has already received this fat point by destroying a large part of the active male population of Ukraine, by intimidating another part of it, which fled to Europe. Russia cut off the Azov and a large piece of the Black Sea, seized a fat piece of Ukrainian territory and created a land corridor to the Crimea. Now there is only one thing left: to firmly gain a foothold, to claw in those territories that already exist,”.
OBSERVATION – Interesting position as Prigozhin has been a cheerleader for the war.
Logistics –
Use of T-54/55 tanks by Russian forces in Ukraine has been confirmed.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian spetsnaz lost 90-95% of fighters in Ukraine, recovery will take up to 10 years as reported by The Washington Post. As a rule, special forces are assigned covert and risky missions. But since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian military leadership has deviated from the norm and ordered the elite forces to engage in direct combat.
NOTE - Not only Spetsnaz, but other ‘elite’ forces such as the VDV (airborne) and marine units have been similarly decimated. They have been on the point of the spear for Russian offensive actions and face the highest attrition rates.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Bakhmut receiving most of the activity overnight. Russian forces are pushing towards the west against the Ukraine defensive line set up along a railroad passing throught the middle of the town. Attack is being supported by a lot of artillery (Russian style).
Seven Russian S-300 Russian missiles hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk on Friday, killing at least eight people and wounding 21, the governor of Donetsk region said.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Getting pretty redundant. However, the fight in Bakhmut continues to ebb and flow. Russia is (again) placing additional emphasis on capturing the town (or whats left of it) and continues to dedicate more resources to that fight. Ukraine , while putting up a feisty defense, is being forced back and has the potential for being required to fully pull out of the city on the front burner.
If Russia captures the city, the consensus is that it lacks the forces and equipment necessary to exploit the attack further to the west, where multiple other lines of defense are emplace and Russian unable to quickly replace its losses. The Ukraine defense has caused other sectores to be weakened so that Russia could continue to press its attacks. These weakened sectors are ripe for exploitation in an Ukrainian offensive.
Misc of Note –
Heavy gunfire and explosions rang out in Sudan’s capital Khartoum following days of tension between the army and a powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The rift between the forces came to the surface on Thursday when the army said recent movements by RSF had happened without coordination and were illegal. Current tensions also stem from a disagreement over how the RSF should be integrated into the military and what authority should oversee the process. The merger is a key condition of Sudan’s unsigned transition agreement.
Fighting has been heavy in the vicinity of Sudan’s army headquarters and the defense ministry in central Khartoum, as well as the presidential palace and airport.
OBSERVATION – Another third world hell-hole going to pieces. I expect to see this similar trend continue across the third world as the global economy breaks down and the WEF leaves these areas to fend for themselves – reducing the excess global population.
**
On a more positive note - Targeting as soon as Monday, April 17 for the first flight test of a fully integrated Starship and Super Heavy rocket from Starbase in Texas. FAA has granted permission to launch.
OBSERVATION – I was dubious about SpaceX’s returnable rocket design, but now it is common place with well over 100 consecutive successful booster returns. I though the Starship portion of the rocket was ugly and unwieldy, but that is dwarfed by the booster that is to be retrieved in the same manner as its smaller siblings. Definitely will be watching the feeds if this beast gets off the ground successfully.
Globalism / Great Reset –
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings 2023, the Digital Currency Monetary Authority (DCMA) announced their official launch of an international central bank digital currency (CBDC) that strengthens the monetary sovereignty of participating central banks and complies with the recent crypto assets policy recommendations proposed by the IMF.
Universal Monetary Unit (UMU), symbolized as ANSI Character, Ü, is legally a money commodity, can transact in any legal tender settlement currency, and functions like a CBDC to enforce banking regulations and to protect the financial integrity of the international banking system.
OBSERVATION – Being put together piecemeal across the globe, the push for a global digital currency is gaining ground. In the latest push, digital currency is being essentially beta tested for transfers between other banks. One similar effort is being tested here in the US. As the bugs are worked out of each of these tests, the next phase will be incorporating the ESG features along with the ‘currency’ being programmable to enforce the ESG requirements. The cumulation of these efforts could easily be in place and executed in the next few years.
**
BlackRock Inc.’s assets swelled to $9.09 trillion in the first quarter as depositors sought cover following the collapse of several US banks by pouring money into the firm’s cash-management funds.
OBSERVATION – BlackRock is the WEF’s strong arm element in the current global economy. It is a leader in forcing corporations to put into effect ESG policies that support the WEF/Global reset agenda. $9 Trillion provides the company with huge leverage. BlackRock also made a name for itself by buying homes during the recent couple years at higher than market prices - pushing most buyers out of the market. Remember the phrase “You will own nothing and be happy”? BlackRock is working towards that end.
Wuhan virus –
A judge in California has ordered San Jose’s Calvary Chapel church to pay $1.2 million in fines for violating COVID lockdown rules, particularly regarding the use of masks.
The ruling was handed down by Superior Court Judge Evette Pennypacker, whose name is reminiscent of a Dickens or “Seinfeld” character, a registered Democrat appointed by former Governor Jerry Brown in 2018.
The Washington Free Beacon reports the Calvary church has filed a separate federal lawsuit against Santa Clara officials. That filing remains pending in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.
They also outline the lengths to which officials in the county became overbearing tyrants during the lockdowns.
“Court documents in both cases reveal that Santa Clara County mounted rigorous surveillance of the church and its individual members, even tracking members’ movements through cell phone data and paying researchers to analyze the results,” they explained.
OBSERVATION – The church is on the right side of history on this one. Studies have shown conclusively that mask has little to no effect in reducing the spread of wuhan. At this level, this judge continues in the misinformation and deliberate attack on Christianity while supporting equally congested and allowed to be open venues like Walmart.
Economy –
Banks in the United States did not have the best year with the housing market in 2022, as they lost money on mortgages last year.
On average, both independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 on every loan that originated last year, making it the first time lenders have lost money since the Mortgage Bankers Association started recording these statistics in 2008, according to a report from the MBA. The average $301 loss on every loan in 2022 is down from the average profit of $2,339 per loan from the year prior, according to USA Today.
“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s vice president of industry analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.”
OBSERVATION – I’ve pointed out that the housing market is a bellweather indicator regarding the health of our economy. By all factors it is saying that the health is poor and declining. First in line for the effects of that decline is the banking sector - from which malaise spreads into other sectors.
**
The American consumer, whose willingness to spend drives the economy, showed signs of faltering in March as retail sales fell by 1 percent, a far sharper decline than analysts expected and five times lower than the prior month’s 0.2 percent pullback.
Consumer spending accounts for around 70 percent of U.S. economic output and retail sales serve as a key barometer.
Retail sales fell for the second month in a row in March, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows, with the 1 percent decline exceeding consensus forecasts of a 0.4 percent drop.
“After adjusting for inflation, though, the story is far worse,” Bilello added, noting that inflation-adjusted real retail sales fell 3.3 percent in year-over-year terms last month.
So-called core retail sales—which strip out automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services—fell 0.3 percent last month. This was after core retail sales grew 0.5 percent in February.
Core retail sales most closely correspond to the consumer spending component of gross domestic product (GDP).
OBSERVATION – Inflation combined with lacking wage growth are hitting this sector. These indicators are pointing towards a recession.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Local leaders assembled outside of Chatham’s Walmart demanding the store remains open 2 days after corporate officials announced they’d close the store this weekend. A pharmacy at the location will close May 12. Neighbors received a 5-day notice.
Background- this store was stripped essentially bare during the 2020 riots. Shoplifting has continued to decimate the store since.
OBSERVATION - You get what you vote for. Defund the police and decriminalize looting, you lose your stores and businesses.
**
The Biden administration is looking at expanding how it monitors social media sites and chatrooms after U.S. intelligence failed to realize classified Pentagon documents circulated online for weeks, officials briefed on the matter say.
OBSERVATION – More and more intrusive actions by the govt making use of an incident to push their agendas. This move for more surveillance was noted yesterday too.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
According to Seattle, WA journalist Katie Daviscourt, the Washington State Legislature passed SB 5599 last night, which allows the state to legally take children away from their parents if they don’t consent to their child’s gender transition surgeries.
OBSERVATION – Kalifornia on track for a similar law. Communism from the start demands total control over children for indoctrination purposes. In this case the radical transtifa cause serves the Marxists by breaking up the nuclear family – one of their foundational goals. One of the foundation stones of a tyrannical govt.
China –
Beijing this week announced revisions to its conscription policy and said that should China enter a state of war, veterans and educated college students can expect to be on top of the list to be drafted. China has positioned these changes as a necessary step to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and to bolster its combat effectiveness.
OBSERVATION – Observers are evaluating this new policy – particularly on how it will be implemented and how the resulting impacts to the Chinese economy could be mitigated with the vast sucking sound of this sector of the working force back into the military.
Japan –
There’s been a loud explosion at a Japanese port during the visit of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. There are no immediate reports of injuries. It appears a smoke bomb was thrown at the Japanese prime minister, according to witnesses. Reports a person has been arrested after an explosion sound of some kind in Wakayama where Japan’s Prime Minister was giving a speech. The security detail secured the Prime Minister who is, it seems, safe and unharmed.
OBSERVATION – A smoke bomb could be the result of an incorrectly constructed bomb.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian Pacific Fleet launched a combat readiness check exercise yesterday – follow up. Russian Pacific fleet vessels sputtered out of their harbors under heavy diesel/oil smoke. Reports are that part of the exercise was to demonstrate to the Chinese that they can be an equal partner in ‘defense’ of the western Pacific region.
**
The leader of PMC “Wagner” Prigozhin suddenly called for an end to the war against Ukraine.
“The ideal option is to announce the end of the Special Military Operation, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense, we really achieved them. We have ground a huge number of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and we can report to ourselves about that the tasks of “SMO” are completed.
Theoretically, Russia has already received this fat point by destroying a large part of the active male population of Ukraine, by intimidating another part of it, which fled to Europe. Russia cut off the Azov and a large piece of the Black Sea, seized a fat piece of Ukrainian territory and created a land corridor to the Crimea. Now there is only one thing left: to firmly gain a foothold, to claw in those territories that already exist,”.
OBSERVATION – Interesting position as Prigozhin has been a cheerleader for the war.
Logistics –
Use of T-54/55 tanks by Russian forces in Ukraine has been confirmed.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian spetsnaz lost 90-95% of fighters in Ukraine, recovery will take up to 10 years as reported by The Washington Post. As a rule, special forces are assigned covert and risky missions. But since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian military leadership has deviated from the norm and ordered the elite forces to engage in direct combat.
NOTE - Not only Spetsnaz, but other ‘elite’ forces such as the VDV (airborne) and marine units have been similarly decimated. They have been on the point of the spear for Russian offensive actions and face the highest attrition rates.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Bakhmut receiving most of the activity overnight. Russian forces are pushing towards the west against the Ukraine defensive line set up along a railroad passing throught the middle of the town. Attack is being supported by a lot of artillery (Russian style).
Seven Russian S-300 Russian missiles hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk on Friday, killing at least eight people and wounding 21, the governor of Donetsk region said.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Getting pretty redundant. However, the fight in Bakhmut continues to ebb and flow. Russia is (again) placing additional emphasis on capturing the town (or whats left of it) and continues to dedicate more resources to that fight. Ukraine , while putting up a feisty defense, is being forced back and has the potential for being required to fully pull out of the city on the front burner.
If Russia captures the city, the consensus is that it lacks the forces and equipment necessary to exploit the attack further to the west, where multiple other lines of defense are emplace and Russian unable to quickly replace its losses. The Ukraine defense has caused other sectores to be weakened so that Russia could continue to press its attacks. These weakened sectors are ripe for exploitation in an Ukrainian offensive.
Misc of Note –
Heavy gunfire and explosions rang out in Sudan’s capital Khartoum following days of tension between the army and a powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The rift between the forces came to the surface on Thursday when the army said recent movements by RSF had happened without coordination and were illegal. Current tensions also stem from a disagreement over how the RSF should be integrated into the military and what authority should oversee the process. The merger is a key condition of Sudan’s unsigned transition agreement.
Fighting has been heavy in the vicinity of Sudan’s army headquarters and the defense ministry in central Khartoum, as well as the presidential palace and airport.
OBSERVATION – Another third world hell-hole going to pieces. I expect to see this similar trend continue across the third world as the global economy breaks down and the WEF leaves these areas to fend for themselves – reducing the excess global population.
**
On a more positive note - Targeting as soon as Monday, April 17 for the first flight test of a fully integrated Starship and Super Heavy rocket from Starbase in Texas. FAA has granted permission to launch.
OBSERVATION – I was dubious about SpaceX’s returnable rocket design, but now it is common place with well over 100 consecutive successful booster returns. I though the Starship portion of the rocket was ugly and unwieldy, but that is dwarfed by the booster that is to be retrieved in the same manner as its smaller siblings. Definitely will be watching the feeds if this beast gets off the ground successfully.
This seems normal for the interest rate environment we've been in...
Economy –
CNN — Walmart’s chief merchandising officer for its US operations is stepping down from the job as the retailer faces a tougher year ahead, an internal memo shared to US associates Friday said.
“The consumer is still very pressured,” Walmart CFO John Rainey told CNBC. “And if you look at economic indicators, balance sheets are running thinner and savings rates are declining relative to previous periods. And so that’s why we take a pretty cautious outlook on the rest of the year.”
The retail industry in general is expected to face challenges this year after sluggish holiday sales.
Biden / Harris watch –
Joe and Hunter Biden are back from their four-day taxpayer-funded vacation to Ireland. Biden retreated straight to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, for another weekend vacation. He has spent 326 days — 40% of his presidency — on vacation.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Minneapolis is the first major American city to allow the Muslim call to prayer, or adhan, to be broadcast over loudspeakers five times a day, year-round It follows a unanimous vote by the city council to amend the city’s noise ordinance after some morning and evening calls were previously prevented The move is seen as a victory for the city’s burgeoning population of East African immigrants, many of whom are Muslim.
OBSERVATION - Little surprise that Minneapolis was the center of major rioting in 2020 and that muslim violence in Europe has created many “no go” areas. Coming soon to Minnesota and other blue areas as well.
**
Overnight in downtown Chicago a large group of teenagers tore up the area, smashing car windows, getting into fights, robbing people, and using mace. There have also been reports of multiple gunshots, and three teens have been shot while attempting to break into the Art Institute of Chicago.
OBSERVATION – It looks like this may be a long, hot summer in blue cities. The past several years of essentially no law enforcement has emboldened the ferals to do as they please. This in the face of some ‘civic leaders’ decrying the closure of 8 Walmarts in the city exactly because of this behavior. Expect ‘copy cat’ rampages soon in other cities.
**
Disturbing words on the interwebs on whether or not our military would fire on civilians. Observations from veterans is that the needle has pushed to the definite “YES” category. Based in part to the efforts of the regime to force out those who would resist such an order – through purges of those with “potential” domestic terror/white supremacy alignment as well as those who refused the jab on principle. This leaves those who unthinkingly follow such orders – providing them a power trip as a bonus. Already, Marxist indoctrination is deeply embedded in the nation’s military academys and advanced officer leadership courses at Ft. Leavenworth / Cmd and Gen Staff College. This also mirrors increased indifference by metro police forces unwilling to stop violence against those on the right and our alphabet agencies willing to use swat style tactics to arrest peaceful protestors and political opponents.
On the other side, veterans in the civilian population pose a serious threat to any military effort directed by the regime to enforce any of its dictates like gun control. The only way they can force the issue is to disarm the populace. It will not be pretty if it happens. Hence I expect increasing calls for so called gun control and increased focus and infiltration into veterans groups / patriot groups by the feds – mostly to incite an incident that can be turned into justification to force disarming citizens.
**
Sixty-nine acts of vandalism against churches occurred in the first quarter of the year, constituting a significant increase in the number of attacks compared to previous years.
The Family Research Council, a socially conservative think-tank based in Washington, D.C., released a supplemental report outlining “Hostility Against Churches” in the first quarter of 2023. The data builds on an earlier report published in December, which documented attacks on churches between January 2018 and December 2022.
January saw the highest number of church attacks, totaling 43 documented incidents. Fourteen acts of vandalism occurred in February, while 12 occurred in March.
The number of attacks against churches during the first three months of 2023 represents a marked increase in the number of incidents that occurred in the first three months of the previous five years. The Family Research Council recorded 15 attacks against churches in the first three months of 2018, 12 in the same period in 2019, 14 in the first quarter of 2021, and 22 in the first four months of 2022. 2020 saw no attacks on churches in its first three months.
OBSERVATION – This will only increase – particularly in blue regions of the country as the progressives in charge there will see this as comeuppance for the USSC abortion decision as well as resistance to the Transtifa agenda to force its agenda on the country.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s military released a statement saying that a ROK Navy vessel fired warning shots after a North Korean patrol boat crossed the Northern Limit Line. The North Korean patrol boat was reportedly chasing a Chinese fishing boat.
OBSERVATION – From what I understand, it is crabbing season in that area, and Chinese boats commonly poach crabs, causing problems for both NK and SK
Japan –
Video of the recent attempted bombing of the PM shows the rapid reaction by one of his bodyguards in kicking the device away from the PM then putting himself between the PM and pushing him away from the threat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut with increased Russian efforts at both cities.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. I’m discerining a trend of increased Russian efforts to secure as much of the areas around these cities as possible before any Ukraine offensive occurs. Speculation is that in at least in the case of Bakhmut, it will be the focus of one of the axis’s of the offensive.
Israel –
Israeli media media report Israel has extended the restrictions imposed on the airspace near the Lebanese border for a period of 24 hours.
**
Several Israeli websites have found themselves under cyberattack on Friday afternoon, coinciding with the Iranian anti-Israel hate festival known as ‘Quds Day.’ A group of hackers identified as ‘Anonymous Sudan’ has taken responsibility for targeting websites of Israeli banks, phone providers, the post office, the electricity company and the red alert warning app. Israeli media reported that some of the sites have collapsed and were offline for a short time.
Turkey -
The Turkish president on April 14 called for the creation of a new constitution for the country that stands up for the public’s hopes and dreams.
“Let’s make a new, civil, libertarian constitution that embraces the dreams of all the people of this country. This is a call for all 85 million (people in Türkiye),” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told a groundbreaking ceremony for houses and the handover of over 1,400 houses and 17 shops in the southeastern province of Diyarbakır.
OBSERVATION – Some see this call as evidence that Erdogan is struggling to regain the confidence of a significant portion of the country. He has shifted the country more and more towards Islamic fundamentalism and positioned it as the leader of the restored califate – a move the more moderate majority of the country rejects. This on top of the deployment of Turkish forces around the Med in support of that claim. He has further overseen the massive economic meltdown of the country’s currency and associated woes.
Africa general –
Fighting continues in the Sudan between govt military forces and the RSF. Most of the fighting is centered in the capitol city of Khartoum.
RSF had captured Egyptian military elements in country for an exercised with national military – now the RSF says they will be released without any preconditions after initially designating them as POWs.
Chad has reportedly closed its border with Sudan.
Sudan’s joint chiefs of staff says that there will be no negotiations or dialogue before the dissolution of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) - Reuters
The African Union’s peace and security council has tweeted that it is convening an emergency session to discuss the crisis.
The Arab League is also holding an urgent meeting to discuss the situation, following a request by Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, the Egyptian presidency has said that Egypt and South Sudan have offered to mediate between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
OBSERVATION – RSF is apparently staging a coup attempt. Complicated military relationship as it has been an independent force now facing loss of that independence thru integration in an subordination to the govt military.
The RSF may have dodged a bullet (metaphoically and literally) by releasing the Egyptian soldiers, as Egypt would not have views such capture and retention favorably.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric submitted a joint proposal to the state’s Public Utilities Commission last week that outlines the new rate structure. It follows last year’s passage of Assembly Bill 205 which requires a fixed rate and generally simpler power bills.
Under the proposal, households will see a fixed rate covering basic electricity services and the utility company’s operating costs on a scale based on their household income.
SCE says approximately 1.2 million of its lower-income customers will see their bills drop by 16%-21%. Overall, rates will decrease by about 33% per kilowatt hour for all residential customers, the utility says.
OBSERVATION - Classical communism. Watch the exodus of businesses and rich from Kalifornia increase.
**
A Switzerland-based group has issued a report urging nations to end the criminalization of various acts – the most notable being sex with a minor who supposedly consents to the activity.
The report was created by the International Committee of Jurists (ICJ), alongside the United Nations group UNAIDS and the U.N.’s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, according to a news release from UNAIDS.
The report urged an end to criminal laws that prohibit acts that the groups deem human rights.
OBSERVATION - Continued perversion of children by the globalists.
**
U.S. climate czar John Kerry claimed in an interview on Sunday that “so much has been invested in clean energy that there can be no rolling back of moves to end carbon emissions,” according to an interview with the Associated Press.
Kerry claimed that if countries phase out petroleum-based fuels, the world can purportedly limit average global warming to 1.7 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
“The United States and all the developed world has the responsibility to help the developing world through this crisis,” he said. “Those countries will really determine what happens. If they will reduce, if they will take the lead, if they will start deploying the new technologies, if they will stop using unabated fossil fuels, we’ll up the chance of winning this battle.”
OBSERVATION – Declaration from the deep state / WEF that they will not permit reversals of their global energy policies.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said tightening lending standards and credit restriction in the economy could “substitute” further rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Responding to a question about deposit security in the wake of bank collapses, Yellen said there are important pros and cons to consider for a Central Bank Digital Currency, but it could be in America’s future. (FO)
OBSERVATION – More pressure that will harm small businesses and farms due to evaporation of access to credit. Also – indicators the recent (and ongoing under the surface) banking crisis a factor in the delivery of a US CBDC.
Invasion of Illegals –
President Joe Biden’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has released more than a million migrants into the United States through a parole pipeline — a foreign population that exceeds the populations of six states.
A few months into taking office in 2021, Biden began implementing an expansive Catch and Release network that has transformed the U.S.-Mexico border into a European-style checkpoint where many border crossers are merely stopped, briefly detained, and then released into the nation’s interior.
OBSERVATION – All untraceable and virtually impossible to expel.
Biden / Harris watch –
On Thursday, President Joe Biden is scheduled to attend a Major Economies Forum, which includes leaders of 20 nations that account for more than three-quarters of global carbon emissions. The summit offers another opportunity for committing resources to the goal of reaching zero emissions by 2050
CW2/Domestic violence –
Chicago mayor-elect said the city should not demonize the teens who organized a ‘Teen Takeover’ of the Loop over the weekend, even after the event turned violent with cars burnt cars and minors shot.
Brandon Johnson, 47, said Sunday he does not ‘condone the destructive activity’ and that it’s ‘unacceptable and has no place’ in Chicago, but that it should not be used as a way to vilify the group.
‘However, it is not constructive to demonize youth who have otherwise been starved of opportunities in their own communities,’ said Johnson, a progressive Democrat.
**
Elon Musk: “Various government agencies effectively had full access to everything that was going on Twitter,” including to the users’ direct messages. “The degree to which various government agencies effectively had full access to everything that was going on at Twitter blew my mind”
OBSERVATION – govt spying on citizens - illegal and a sign of tyranny developing
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
There is currently a rather large US Strategic Command exercise called Global Thunder 23 underway involving at least 10 B-52H, at least 16 tankers and an E-4B Nightwatch, all from USAF Global Strike Command. There are also four US Navy E-6B TACAMOs airborne.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting is intensifying at Bakhmut with Russian forces once again attempting to cut the city off while continuing pressure from the east . Action shifted from Avdiivka to the M-04 highway about 15 km west of the town.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones hit a major power sub station in Belgorod causing a number of explosions and a large power outage.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. I’m discerining a trend of increased Russian efforts to secure as much of the areas around these cities as possible before any Ukraine offensive occurs.
Reports that the Russian military command appears to be increasingly shifting responsibility for offensive operations in Ukraine to the Russian Airborne troops (VDV). This may account for some of the change in tactics around Avdiivka and Bakhmut. VDV control may account for some of the changes in tactics at those cities.
Europe / NATO General –
Some 26,000 personnel from 14 countries are participating in Aurora 23, Sweden’s largest military exercise in 25 years. The exercise is designed to prove a joint capability to launch a counterattack against an invasion of Sweden.
Iran –
Regime is vehemently denying “rumours” about a possible fuel price hike but it has already launched a new rationing system that curbs the amount of fuel people can buy. A fuel price hike in Nov 2019 led to nationwide protests, security forces killing hundreds.
Syria -
An Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) senior leader was likely killed in a helicopter raid in northern Syria early Monday morning, according to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).
The ISIS leader and operational planner, who was not named, was responsible for planning terror attacks in the Middle East and Europe. “The raid resulted in the probable death of the targeted individual,” the Department of Defense’s command said, adding that two other armed individuals were also killed in the raid.
No U.S. troops were injured in the attack nor was any Department of Defense equipment damaged, due to “extensive planning.” The command does not believe any civilians were injured either.
Africa general –
Sudan’s capital Khartoum continues under assault, with fighting in the country in its third day.
Biden - - Worst. President. Ever.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Germany shut down its last nuclear energy plant on Saturday. On the same day, Germans learned their power bills were about to go up 45%
OBSERVATION - This is the world your globalist rulers want.
Economy –
Woke outerwear clothing brand REI announced it is shutting down its flagship Portland store in the Pearl District following surging crime & public safety issues. The retailer supported BLM during the 2020 riots & established a “BIPOC Advisory Council.”
OBSERVATION - Can crossref to CW2, biting the hand that ‘feeds you’. No sympathy for REI – they are just receiving that which they’ve sowed for themselves on the left.
CW2/Domestic violence –
To summarize two things that I see approaching like a freight train that may combine into greater violence in the coming months.
1. Wanton racial violence. There are abundant video clips of black on white violence all over social media and many on the right are picking up on this. First question needing to be answered – is this increase real or a form of confirmation bias? I would say mostly real – case in point the rampage over the weekend in Chicago and the destruction of a convivence store in Compton kalifornia. Even before this year, black on white (as well as black on Asian) violence has been on an upward swing. Violent looting has become the norm, gaining particular notice last summer in kalifornia where ‘rich’ shopping malls were especially hit by looting mobs who then migrated to even more exclusively rich area of Hollywood. Today major stores are closing due to crime and violence – most notably San Francisco, Portland, Seattle and Chicago.
This violence is driven by two factors IMHO. First the total breakdown of black families and society. Second by totally absent law enforcement, both in reduced policing and second by non-prosecution of criminals. Something like 14 out of the top 20 most violent cities have Soros-backed DAs working overtime to empty jails of violent offenders and not prosecuting those arrested.
There are other influencers that are encouraging more violence such as the reparationists and other SJWs out there with their Marxist goals of creating as much chaos as possible in order to drive their goals of a communist state.
2. Second area is the warp speed growth of the violent Trans / Transtifa movement. Flush with political power -as all the MSM and much of the blue political spectrum condons their actions, they are pushing their agenda with harder and harder demands and calls for violence. As noted in the Missouri report below – the battle cry is “genocide” and mixed with it the attempt to dehumanize (labeling fascist or transphobic) any opponent. That dehumanization psychotically conditions the transtifa to injure or kill an opponent because they are “ morally” clean to do so. With their Antifa allies the potential for lethal actions are significantly high and rising. Increasing with it is the potential for assassinations of political leaders and spokesmen/women of other opposing groups (like TPUSA and others). May well also include more mass shootings and the like.
Bottom line is from my viewpoint, the potential for increased violence from these two directions is becoming very concerning and greater risk. Throw in the growing attention to the 2024 elections and woah nelly. Note that other violence from the pro-abort and general Marxist side is also present, but currently not at the same intensity and size levels as racism and Transtifa. Here in the Redoubt we have some degree of buffer, but those pressures are still there. Those Freepers who live in/around blue cities need to buckle up and make preparations for civil disturbances.
**
Missouri’s progressives are using apocalyptic claims to denounce the new state regulations that protect children from transgender treatments.
The escalating rhetoric is prompting Republican politicians to urge calm before transgender advocates initiate or provoke violent actions.
“We are fighting for our lives — quite literally for LGBTQ folks,” tweeted Jess Piper, the director of Blue Missouri, a pro-Democratic fundraising group. “BTW: it’s fascism,” she added.
Progressive Rabbi Daniel Bogard (@RavBogard) April 14, 2023 tweeted
“It is time for new tactics. These people should not be welcome in civil society. They shouldn’t be able to go to restaurants in St. Louis or Kansas City and be left alone — they should be shouted and driven out. They shouldn’t be able to go to a Cardinals game without being harassed. These people should be made unwelcome everywhere they go. I say this as a clergy member and as a parent of a trans kid to our Attorney General: F*ck you.”
OBSERVATION – The rhetoric of this being a “genocide” is the common rallying cry of the Transtifa elements – except there is absolutely ZERO evidence of said genocide. Yet this call is being used to provoke violence towards opponents of their agenda, violence that is already gaining action and killing people.
**
Texas secretly gives its citizens’ incomes to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). Documents show this has led to at least one person being monitored by the feds without a warrant through the federal gun background check system. The Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) told The Epoch Times that it has written contracts with ATF for “sharing income information” for criminal investigations. The revelation may lead to oversight by the legislature.
Texas state Rep. Briscoe Cain, a Republican, is “deeply troubled” about this coordination with the state’s unemployment agency and federal government.
“My office will be looking into whether the Texas Workforce Commission is assisting the ATF in the Biden Administration’s mission to violate the constitutional rights of law-abiding Texans,” Cain told The Epoch Times after reviewing the emails obtained by Gun Owners of America (GOA) as part of its ongoing FOIA lawsuit.
OBSERVATION – WTH is going on with TX? Development of covert personal monitoring networks by the govt is another step in tyranny. This is just another piece of the puzzle, in this case apparently looking towards gun owners.
**
Akron police have BLM surrounded, snuffing out some developing protests before they could gain momentum.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Milius, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, transited the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet says the trip was a “routine” Taiwan Strait transit.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Two Chinese nationals charged with running illegal CCP ‘police station’ in NYC.
OBSERVATION – This story line has been promulgating for a while now. China has been doing this throughtout the world.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
According to Kremlin Putin visited military HQs in occupied regions of Ukraine.
The Russian Foreign Minister summoned the Ambassadors of the US, Canada, and the UK in connection with “domestic interference” in Russian affairs and activities that do not correspond to their diplomatic status
Economic Impact –
Via Yahoo! Finance:
Russia has been able to navigate Western sanctions well enough to push oil exports above levels reached before its war on Ukraine — and new data suggests that Moscow has China and India to thank for that.
In the first quarter, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports totaled 3.5 million barrels per day versus 3.35 million barrels in the year-ago quarter, the tail end of which saw the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China and India now account for roughly 90% of Russia’s oil, with each country snapping up an average of 1.5 million barrels per day, according to commodities analytics firm Kpler.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting is intensifying at Bakhmut with Russian forces once again attempting to cut the city off while continuing pressure from the east . A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .
Action shifted from Avdiivka to the M-04 highway about 15 km west of the town.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Russian Territory –
Something large is burning in Tyumen, Russia. Tyumen is a service center for gas and oil industries: the Oblast has the highest level of oil and gas production of any region in Russia.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Time is running out at Bakhmut as incremental gains by Russia are increasingly placing Ukraine forces at risk of being cut off and unable to conduct an orderly withdrawal. Russia’s increasing efforts to capture the city suggest to some that they want this battle to end sooner than later so that they can pull forces out to establish some fashion of an operational reserve when the Ukraine offensive hits. Though Ukraine forces are being forced back and receiving heavy casualities as well, they are tying up a substantial amount of Russian men and material – degrading their capabilities - all to the good towards their offensive.
The initial Russian offensive attempts in the Svatove-Kreminna front, and
Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar have all been given up by Russia. Russian forces there have essentially shifted into preparing defenses for the Ukraine attack – especially Zaporizhizhia Oblast which is the most direct route to Crimea.
Israel –
Israel began marking Holocaust Remembrance Day on Monday evening. One of the central themes of this year’s commemoration is Jewish resistance during the Holocaust, as the world marks 80 years since the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising.
As I see it best to avoid potential encounters by association or otherwise if possible. Just too risky otherwise.
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