Globalism / Great Reset –
A federal judge granted a request Wednesday from a coalition of 24 states and several industry groups to block environmental regulations redefining how water sources are protected.
Judge Daniel Hovland of the U.S. District Court for the District of North Dakota ruled that the so-called Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule announced by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in late December poses “great” risks to states. The judge also ruled that the federal government should wait until the Supreme Court soon rules on a related case pending before it.
“A balancing of the harms and an analysis of the public interest supports a finding that the risk of harms to the States is great,” Hovland wrote. “There is little public interest or any efficiency gained by implementing a new rule which codifies the ‘significant nexus’ test before the United States Supreme Court issues a decision in Sackett.”
OBSERVATION – WEF stated goals are to reduce agriculture. One way is to restrict how the land can be used. Reality is regulators want to call any piece of land that essentially has a mud puddle or trickle of water at any time a ‘waters of the US” and subject to highly restrictive uses. They have been going after this for decades now and have ruined the lives of many in agriculture.
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One of the parties that makes up Poland’s conservative government has proposed an “anti-bug law” that would require food products containing insects to be labelled with a special warning. “Dried mealworm larvae, powdered cricket – these are among the insects that the eurocrats and Rafał Trzaskowski [the opposition mayor of Warsaw] call new food,” said Janusz Kowalski, a deputy agriculture minister, while unveiling the plans in parliament yesterday.
In January this year, the European Commission approved products made from mealworm larvae and house crickets as safe for consumption. They were not the first insect products approved by Brussels, and the commission emphasized at the time that “nobody will be forced to eat insects”.
OBSERVATION – Oh yes they will eventually be forced to eat bug, you can bet your bars on that.
Economy –
US Core Inflation (Core CPI YoY) rose to 5.6% in March
Energy prices were down, but shelter is up 8.2% YoY and food is up 8.5% YoY.
OBSERVATION – Uncertainty in fuel and housing has the potential to light the inflation fuse this summer. Fed outlook are for a couple smaller (25 point) raises in the prime rate, but according to the way they do math, it won’t slow inflation down.
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FWIW, news releases say 5 billion but more up to date analysis shows Anheiser – Busch has lost 7 billion since going woke.
Invasion of Illegals –
Border Patrol agents are seeing an increasing surge of illicit drugs coming across the northern border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) statistics and two agents who spoke with the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Border Patrol agents have already seized 1,500 pounds of drugs at the northern border between October 2022 and February 2023, surpassing the 1,300 pounds seized in all of fiscal year 2022, according to CBP data. Agents are not only dealing with a surge in drugs, but also an influx of illegal migrants.
OBSERVATION – Canada no longers works to stop southward illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the US apparently. As weather gets warmer, I expect this to increase.
Biden / Harris watch –
Arriving in Belfast, the Biden did not recognize the Prime Minister of Great Britain and pushed the “boy” away to salute the gray-haired military man.
CW2/Domestic violence –
AG Garland may have perjured himself before congress when he denied that the FBI attempting to plant informants inside a number of Catholic congregations. The House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government has released new details about the FBI’s targeting of Catholic churches that counters his testimony.
OBSERVATION – Our govt is at war with us. Garland may apply the plausible deniability tactic to say he didn’t know, but such efforts require his knowledge. They will call him out on it but nothing will be done except for a lot of chest beating and heavy grunting.
NOTE – not only the Catholic church, but all non-woke, non-progressive churches are in the DoJ’s cross hairs.
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The Department of Justice (DOJ) is offering no jail time for a transgender activist who vandalized a church and assaulted a woman after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, according to documents reviewed by Fox News Digital.
Maeve Nota, a 31-year-old who identifies as transgender, broke two glass doors and spray painted “rot in your fake hell,” “kid groomers,” and “woman haters” on the outside of St. Louise Catholic Church in Bellevue, Washington, in 2022 after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, according to the Daily Mail. Nota also assaulted a woman, spray painted another person in the face, attacked police and hit an officer’s vehicle with a bag of spray paint cans, but the Biden administration is planning on offering a plea bargain that would require no jail time, according to Fox News Digital.
OBSERVATION – Two tier justice system. Remember, the DOJ has prosecuted pro-life protesters in the past. Mark Houck was arrested in front of his family by the FBI in an October morning raid after being charged with assaulting an abortion clinic volunteer. Houck pleaded not guilty to the charges and was eventually acquitted in January after the jury deadlocked. DoJ was pushing for 11 years in jail for his ‘offense’.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Wednesday that the U.S. would refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) this year if it is advantageous to U.S. taxpayers.
OBSERVATION – with oil prices expecting to reach $100/barrel, it is highly unlikely any effort will be made to replace the oil biden ordered removed last year.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s urgent request to enter a restraining order against Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) was rejected on April 11, the same day it was filed.
U.S. District Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil, a Trump appointee, turned down Bragg’s emergency request for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against Jordan.
“The Court declines to enter the proposed Temporary Restraining Order and Order to Show Cause,” Vyskocil said, noting that she hadn’t yet received several documents that were referenced in Bragg’s filings.
OBSERVATION – Bragg’s defensive tactics to avoid congressional testimony is not starting well. Some would say incompetently, which is not surprising given that it is apparent he is a very poor lawyer to begin with.
**
Whatever the source and validity of the reportedly 100 + classified documents released through a gamers chat room, the reverberations are being felt globally as US allies and enemies alike respond. Damage control by the regime appears to be significant and ongoing. Worst case – if the documents are valid, decades of alliances between the US and other countries will be demolished. What better way to bring down the US is by stabbing itself in the back.
According to members of the original Discord server, the man behind the massive leak of U.S intelligence documents began to share classified information late last year to protect their small group from the troubles around them. While the Discord server was only 25 people, about half of the users were overseas.
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Kalifornia’s Feinstein’s ongoing illnesses and mental decline has democrats pushing for her to resign soon. They are losing confidence in her ability to serve the remaining two years of her term.
China –
Initial analysis of China’s three days of large-scale combat drills that Beijing claimed was a response to the Taiwanese president’s recent high-profile trip to the U.S suggest it isn’t “ ready to risk an invasion” – yet. To avoid the high cost and losses of an invasion, this recent exercise focused on a blockade of the island. Still a dangerous course of action, but would not involve tens of thousands of invasion force troops and potential disaster as their ships are intercepted and sunk enroute to their invasion destinations.
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China is threatening the US and Philippines over plans to significantly increase the US presence in the country. China claims it is a threat to its soverngnity - due to false claims of ownership of Philippine islands in the region.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile Thursday morning, according to Japan’s defense ministry, the first such launch in over two weeks. The missile was directed on a high angle transjectory and total flight time was estimated at about 40 minutes. The transjectory took the missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido resulting in an island-wide alert to get to get to shelter. Details are still lacking on the launch and missile used.
OBSERVATION – This is likely another NK’s tests of a long range ICBM missiles given the flight time and trajectory over Japan. NK compensates for the lack of down range monitoring stations by shooting near vertical rockets. 40 minute flight time is adequate to reach the US. Launch may be related to this weekend’s celebrations.
Japan –
See North/South Korea RE NK missile test.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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It has come to light that last September a Russian pilot had misinterpreted what a radar operator on the ground was saying to him and thought he had permission to fire. The pilot, who had locked on the British aircraft, fired, but the missile did not launch properly.
RUMINT-
Russia may be using other private military companies (PMCs) in an effort to replace Wagner on the battle lines. The quality of these PMCs is unknown, but some reports suggest that they are specialized in infiltration and development of exploitable penetrations of Ukrainian defensive positions. Most likely a effort by the MoD to reduce Wagner’s influence in the Kermlin and Russian politics.
Economic Impact –
Hague court orders Russia to pay Ukraine’s Naftogaz $5 billion in compensation for losses in Crimea. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has ordered Russia to pay $5 billion to Ukraine’s state oil and gas monopoly Naftogaz, the company said on April 13
Ukraine -
One year ago, the Russian Slava-class cruiser “Moskva”, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune missiles. The extensive damage of the ship caused her sinking one day later.
The sinking of the Moskva eventually led to a total withdrawal of all Russian operations in the Western half of the Black Sea, most notably the liberation of Snake Island and the end of the naval blockade of Odesa.
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Bakhmut receiving most of the activity overnight. Growing concern over how long Ukraine can maintain Bakhmut.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Weather is expected to continue to delay any serious Ukrainian offensive until the soil dries out more.
Norway declares 15 intelligence officers working at Russia’s embassy in Oslo personae non gratae.
Black Swans
Interesting science news that the sun may be reaching its cyclic max a year earlier than normal. According to models and historical analysis, the sun spot activity could peak as soon as later this year or early next. Already, it has been a very active cycle with numerous sun spots harboring X-class solar flare potential, and some X class flares being kicked off. Though big, X class flares need to be in the X-15 range to begin to do some serious damage due to the associated CME they involve. The Ontario power grid shut down was due to an X-15 iirc. The go-to site to monitor solar activity is Spaceweather.com
Globalism / Great Reset –
Brazil’s President calls for an end to dollar trade dominance during a speech at the BRICS Bank in Shanghai:
“Every night, I ask myself why all countries are forced to do their trade backed by the dollar? Why can’t we do trade backed by our currency?”
OBSERVATION – The US must be stripped of its power, in this case, the petro-dollar in order for the new global economic reset to fully take effect. The works within the BRICS network is eroding the dollar’s control. At present, the collapse of the dollar as international currency is not immanent, but the ground work is being laid for many countries to replace it within the next few years if the erosion of the US’s economic leadership continues to crumble.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden announced Thursday plans to extend Medicaid and Obamacare coverage to include Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients.
“Today, my Administration is announcing our plan to expand health coverage for Dreamers, the thousands of young people brought to the U.S. as kids. We’re not done fighting for their pathway to citizenship, but we’re getting them the opportunities they deserve in the meantime,” Biden tweeted.
OBSERVATION – They deserve nothing and are here illegally.
Biden / Harris watch –
Arriving in Belfast, the Biden did not recognize the Prime Minister of Great Britain and pushed the “boy” away to salute the gray-haired military man.
Biden vs. the teleprompter in Ireland:
“Ourstiry reminds us — our history, ours, yours and mine — reminds us responsibilities we have to the president! Excuse me, the present.”
During a state dinner in Ireland on Thursday, Joe Biden told his audience to go out and “lick the world” while addressing cooperation between the United States and Ireland.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Transtifa continues to conduct violent protests at events that promote traditional values and oppose the trans agenda.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues. Today is International Quds day, the last Friday of Ramadan.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS George H W Bush and Carrier Strike Group 10 transited the Strait of Gibraltar while operating in the US Navy Europe area of responsibility, April 12, 2023.
OBSERVATION – The Bush has been on a very long deployment and last word I saw had the USS Ford CSG heading to the region to replace it. However, I’ve not seen any word on the Ford’s latest position, and it has gone dark on the latest USNI postings of deployments. I suspect it is still headed to the Med as situations there in the Ukraine and Middle East are still at a critical juncture.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Hard to categorize this incident as it has created a dumpster fire among both sides of the aisle. Clearly this is a mess and I’ll try to sort it out the best I can.
The FBI on Thursday arrested Jack Douglas Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the U.S. Air National Guard, over the leaks online of classified documents that embarrassed Washington with allies around the world. Leaked documents reportedly touched on a variety of topics, ranging from the Ukraine conflict to tensions with South Korea over military aid, as well as matters sensitive matters in China and the Middle East.
Partial Chronology and Key points (H/T Forward Observer)
- The New York Times first reported on the leaked documents on 5 April, after five photographs of classified documents related to the Ukrainian war appeared on Telegram.
- Classified information began to appear in written form on the “Thug Shaker Central” Discord channel as early as October 2022, with posted images dating to as early as 13 January 2023.
- Some of the documents appear to have been part of a series of documents put together for Joint Chiefs of Staff chair General Mark Milley.
- The name of the original leaker on the Discord chatroom was identified as “OG.”
A number of countries have questioned the veracity of some of the leaked documents, including Britain, which said there was “a serious level of inaccuracy” in the information.
The leaks revealed information about allies including Israel, South Korea and Turkey.
U.S. officials believe most of the materials are genuine. Some, however, appear to have been altered to show inflated estimates for Ukrainian battlefield casualties in the war with Russia as well as understated numbers for Russian forces.
Teixeira held the job title of cyber transport systems journeyman. Though he apparently had a TS clearance, there’s no obvious reason why he would have access to the types of documents that were leaked. Early reports suggested that worked at Fort Bragg, NC, during the time the documents were leaked. However, officials at Bragg state that Teixeira was never stationed there. Teixeira also worked at Otis Air National Guard Base in Massachusetts. Otis is located on Joint Base Cape Cod and is the home of the 102nd Intelligence Wing.
(NOTE – I’ve searched far an wide to try to find a link to the facility from which these documents were leaked from and this is the best that I’ve found).
Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said Thursday.
“We continue to review those distribution lists, update them, make sure there’s a need to know,” he said. “And so all indications are, again, this was a criminal act, a willful violation of those, and again, another reason why we’re continuing to investigate and support [the Justice Department’s] investigation.”
OBSERVATION – First some factual stuff, my earlier life in the Army I held some pretty high levels of security access – if anyone bothers to check my profile. I know a thing or two having worked over half of my military time as an intelligence officer in buildings without windows.
1. Thousands of young military folk hold high levels of classification, specific jobs require it. So it is not a surprise that this 21 yr old held a TS (with probable Special Background Investigation) level. (BTW I received my TS clearance as a 23 yr old butter bar) Just because you have the clearance, doesn’t automatically mean you are granted the access – that is supposed to be on a need-to-know basis.
2. Where did he actually access the documents? That to me is the BIGGER issue. IF he was at Bragg for sometime (and semantics by the DoD may mean things), especially the Special Forces elements/intel facility he could have gained access to these kinds of documents. If that was the case, then situational awareness and security procedures at those facilities should make some there soil their pants at a potential term in Leavenworth, joining the airman in making smaller rocks out of big ones.
3. To me it is inconceivable that a National Guard Military Intelligence Wing would have these documents lying around - unless this Joint Base Cape Cod is something other than its mission statement. If this Intel Wing had copies of Milley’s briefing documents lying around, then there are serious issues in who is distributing these documents.
“The Joint Base Cape Cod (JBCC) is a full scale, joint-use base home to five military commands training for missions at home and overseas, conducting airborne search and rescue missions, and intelligence command and control. “
Training bases shouldn’t be holding potential briefing materials to the Joint Chiefs of Staff chair General Mark Milley.
4. One note I’ve found are comments that various NG and Reserve intelligence units have been activated to varying degrees to assist in the analysis of actions in Ukraine. Unconfirmed to a degree, but the bump in intel analysts and efforts would be conceivable. However, so far no evidence that the 102d Intel Wing was a participant in this effort.
5. Scarier thoughts are that some in the deep state fed him materials – potentially altered – in order to disrupt and degrade US leadership of and relations with other countries.
Bottom line to me is that this has really thrown things into a big mess and I’m not sure how it will pan out. One side is calling this guy a ‘hero’ for exposing biden regime lies about issues like Ukraine and our spying efforts. Others calling him a heinous fiend for exposing highly classified materials. Either way, the US’s position in the world has been severely degraded by these leaks by pushing allies away from us because they can no longer trust us.
One word on my previous observations that these leaks were an act of disinformation. There may still be a ember of truth given the reports that some of the documents were altered to misrepresent data and questions on if he was being fed material. Such an act would be used by the current regime to bolster its efforts to censor and control the internet and particularly social media sites. One instance of recent is the beleaguered
RESTRICT Act, which has recently been hammered for being anything but a simple TicTok expulsion bill, but a Patriot Act 2.0 against the internet on steroids.
No one should overlook that his leaks are now being used to justify more social media censorship and government control of the Internet.
China –
China’s Foreign Minister Qin Qang said Friday that China would not provide arms to either side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Qin added that China would also regulate its sale of dual-use material. Qin added that China is maintaining its neutrality “and adopting a prudent and responsible attitude.”
OBSERVATION – This goes against some of the other govt policies that China has stated that they are supporting Russia. Their red line is clearly being exposed on shipping munitions. Dual use items developed quickly into an issue as well. But these statements fall in line with the sudden cooling of China towards Russia following Xi’s meeting with putin.
North/South Korea –
Images of North Korea’s new Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM released by state media Friday. It was test launched Thursday in the presence of Kim Jong Un and his daughter. This new missile was reportedly previewed at the latest NK parade riding a massive TEL. A dependable solid fuel rocket will significantly cut down on the deployment to launch times for NK over liquid fuel systems. Still unclear if NK has perfected reentry vehicles for any warheads and if NK has any warheads small enough to be carried by this (and other ) missiles.
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US Air Force two B-52H Stratofortress and four F-16 Fighting Falcon conduct a joint air drill over South Korea with South Korean Air Force four F-35A Lightning II on April 14
Japan –
Japan was reportedly unable to fully track the recent NK missile launch. This could be potentially due to radar limitations of the high apogee launch profile of the missile.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian Pacific Fleet launched combat readiness check exercise today.
The United States has not yet given permission for the arrival of a special plane of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, and has not issued visas to members of the Russian delegation to participate in a meeting of the UN Security Council,- reported by CNN, quoting Russian Ambassador to Washington Antonov.
New reports of better cooperation between regular Russian forces and Wagner in the area of Bakhmut.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Bakhmut receiving most of the activity overnight. Reports in Bakhmut are that the Russian regular forces (primarly the VDV) and Wagner have suddenly discovered the art of coordinating their actions and are the reason for much of the recent successes against the town.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Ukraine continues to doggedly hold its supply lines open and still has the capability to maneuver defensively to the chagrin of Russian forces. Short a soon onset of the Ukraine offensive, Ukraine will be forced to continue their orderly withdrawal from Bakhmut while extracting high Russian casualities.
Some are thinking that the Ukraine offensive will include Bakhmut given the severe depletion of forces in the area. That is a possibility, but I suspect such thinking is based on a Russian style frontal attack thought – one that Ukraine generally hasn’t followed. Ukraine has successfully out maneuvered Russia in its major offensives so far. With a lot of Russian assets concentrated in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka regions, there are many other areas that are undermanned and under supported where the Ukaine army could break through and rampage through the Russian rear area – cutting off Russin forces in Bakhmut and Avdiivka regions and forcing their withdrawal without having to conduct direct attacks. The Kharhiv offensive is a good example of that.
Weather forecasts are still for wet weather, though precipitation levels appear to be declining and a potential drying trend is in the offing. That will drive a lot of the timing for any Ukrainian offensive and where the hammer will eventually fall.
Europe / NATO General –
Neighbors Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova signed cooperation agreements in Romania’s capital on April 13 after a trilateral meeting on ways to strengthen security in their Black Sea region to counter threats posed by Russia’n aggression.
Israel –
Israel is on elevated alert for rocket/drone attacks from all fronts on Friday, entire nation currently covered by air defenses, news Israel 13 reports. NOTAM’s issued for Israeli airspace along Gaza, Lebanon and Syrian borders 6km out in anticipation of International Quds Day today. The IDF has been strengthening the air defense systems throughout the country and deployed additional Iron Dome batteries. Reinforcement of the air defense: some of the batteries deployed in the last few days are abnormally directed towards the north (and not towards Gaza)
Quds Force chief met with Hezbollah, Hamas & Islamic Jihad leaders in Beirut last week. The general staff of Iran’s armed forces announced “the countdown to the collapse of the Zionist entity has commenced & it will not exist soon”. Hezbollah, Hamas commanders met with the Chief of Quds in Lebanon too.
Lots of speculation about “Quds day” being celebrated today, and this is the final Friday of Ramadan.