Globalism / Great Reset –
Germany shut down its last nuclear energy plant on Saturday. On the same day, Germans learned their power bills were about to go up 45%
OBSERVATION - This is the world your globalist rulers want.
Economy –
Woke outerwear clothing brand REI announced it is shutting down its flagship Portland store in the Pearl District following surging crime & public safety issues. The retailer supported BLM during the 2020 riots & established a “BIPOC Advisory Council.”
OBSERVATION - Can crossref to CW2, biting the hand that ‘feeds you’. No sympathy for REI – they are just receiving that which they’ve sowed for themselves on the left.
CW2/Domestic violence –
To summarize two things that I see approaching like a freight train that may combine into greater violence in the coming months.
1. Wanton racial violence. There are abundant video clips of black on white violence all over social media and many on the right are picking up on this. First question needing to be answered – is this increase real or a form of confirmation bias? I would say mostly real – case in point the rampage over the weekend in Chicago and the destruction of a convivence store in Compton kalifornia. Even before this year, black on white (as well as black on Asian) violence has been on an upward swing. Violent looting has become the norm, gaining particular notice last summer in kalifornia where ‘rich’ shopping malls were especially hit by looting mobs who then migrated to even more exclusively rich area of Hollywood. Today major stores are closing due to crime and violence – most notably San Francisco, Portland, Seattle and Chicago.
This violence is driven by two factors IMHO. First the total breakdown of black families and society. Second by totally absent law enforcement, both in reduced policing and second by non-prosecution of criminals. Something like 14 out of the top 20 most violent cities have Soros-backed DAs working overtime to empty jails of violent offenders and not prosecuting those arrested.
There are other influencers that are encouraging more violence such as the reparationists and other SJWs out there with their Marxist goals of creating as much chaos as possible in order to drive their goals of a communist state.
2. Second area is the warp speed growth of the violent Trans / Transtifa movement. Flush with political power -as all the MSM and much of the blue political spectrum condons their actions, they are pushing their agenda with harder and harder demands and calls for violence. As noted in the Missouri report below – the battle cry is “genocide” and mixed with it the attempt to dehumanize (labeling fascist or transphobic) any opponent. That dehumanization psychotically conditions the transtifa to injure or kill an opponent because they are “ morally” clean to do so. With their Antifa allies the potential for lethal actions are significantly high and rising. Increasing with it is the potential for assassinations of political leaders and spokesmen/women of other opposing groups (like TPUSA and others). May well also include more mass shootings and the like.
Bottom line is from my viewpoint, the potential for increased violence from these two directions is becoming very concerning and greater risk. Throw in the growing attention to the 2024 elections and woah nelly. Note that other violence from the pro-abort and general Marxist side is also present, but currently not at the same intensity and size levels as racism and Transtifa. Here in the Redoubt we have some degree of buffer, but those pressures are still there. Those Freepers who live in/around blue cities need to buckle up and make preparations for civil disturbances.
**
Missouri’s progressives are using apocalyptic claims to denounce the new state regulations that protect children from transgender treatments.
The escalating rhetoric is prompting Republican politicians to urge calm before transgender advocates initiate or provoke violent actions.
“We are fighting for our lives — quite literally for LGBTQ folks,” tweeted Jess Piper, the director of Blue Missouri, a pro-Democratic fundraising group. “BTW: it’s fascism,” she added.
Progressive Rabbi Daniel Bogard (@RavBogard) April 14, 2023 tweeted
“It is time for new tactics. These people should not be welcome in civil society. They shouldn’t be able to go to restaurants in St. Louis or Kansas City and be left alone — they should be shouted and driven out. They shouldn’t be able to go to a Cardinals game without being harassed. These people should be made unwelcome everywhere they go. I say this as a clergy member and as a parent of a trans kid to our Attorney General: F*ck you.”
OBSERVATION – The rhetoric of this being a “genocide” is the common rallying cry of the Transtifa elements – except there is absolutely ZERO evidence of said genocide. Yet this call is being used to provoke violence towards opponents of their agenda, violence that is already gaining action and killing people.
**
Texas secretly gives its citizens’ incomes to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). Documents show this has led to at least one person being monitored by the feds without a warrant through the federal gun background check system. The Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) told The Epoch Times that it has written contracts with ATF for “sharing income information” for criminal investigations. The revelation may lead to oversight by the legislature.
Texas state Rep. Briscoe Cain, a Republican, is “deeply troubled” about this coordination with the state’s unemployment agency and federal government.
“My office will be looking into whether the Texas Workforce Commission is assisting the ATF in the Biden Administration’s mission to violate the constitutional rights of law-abiding Texans,” Cain told The Epoch Times after reviewing the emails obtained by Gun Owners of America (GOA) as part of its ongoing FOIA lawsuit.
OBSERVATION – WTH is going on with TX? Development of covert personal monitoring networks by the govt is another step in tyranny. This is just another piece of the puzzle, in this case apparently looking towards gun owners.
**
Akron police have BLM surrounded, snuffing out some developing protests before they could gain momentum.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Milius, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, transited the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet says the trip was a “routine” Taiwan Strait transit.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Two Chinese nationals charged with running illegal CCP ‘police station’ in NYC.
OBSERVATION – This story line has been promulgating for a while now. China has been doing this throughtout the world.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
According to Kremlin Putin visited military HQs in occupied regions of Ukraine.
The Russian Foreign Minister summoned the Ambassadors of the US, Canada, and the UK in connection with “domestic interference” in Russian affairs and activities that do not correspond to their diplomatic status
Economic Impact –
Via Yahoo! Finance:
Russia has been able to navigate Western sanctions well enough to push oil exports above levels reached before its war on Ukraine — and new data suggests that Moscow has China and India to thank for that.
In the first quarter, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports totaled 3.5 million barrels per day versus 3.35 million barrels in the year-ago quarter, the tail end of which saw the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China and India now account for roughly 90% of Russia’s oil, with each country snapping up an average of 1.5 million barrels per day, according to commodities analytics firm Kpler.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with some light rain over part of the forecast period. Could signal a potential drying trend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting is intensifying at Bakhmut with Russian forces once again attempting to cut the city off while continuing pressure from the east . A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .
Action shifted from Avdiivka to the M-04 highway about 15 km west of the town.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Russian Territory –
Something large is burning in Tyumen, Russia. Tyumen is a service center for gas and oil industries: the Oblast has the highest level of oil and gas production of any region in Russia.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Time is running out at Bakhmut as incremental gains by Russia are increasingly placing Ukraine forces at risk of being cut off and unable to conduct an orderly withdrawal. Russia’s increasing efforts to capture the city suggest to some that they want this battle to end sooner than later so that they can pull forces out to establish some fashion of an operational reserve when the Ukraine offensive hits. Though Ukraine forces are being forced back and receiving heavy casualities as well, they are tying up a substantial amount of Russian men and material – degrading their capabilities - all to the good towards their offensive.
The initial Russian offensive attempts in the Svatove-Kreminna front, and
Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar have all been given up by Russia. Russian forces there have essentially shifted into preparing defenses for the Ukraine attack – especially Zaporizhizhia Oblast which is the most direct route to Crimea.
Israel –
Israel began marking Holocaust Remembrance Day on Monday evening. One of the central themes of this year’s commemoration is Jewish resistance during the Holocaust, as the world marks 80 years since the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising.
As I see it best to avoid potential encounters by association or otherwise if possible. Just too risky otherwise.
Happy Patriot’s Day – when civilians armed with the “assault rifles” of that day disrupted the govt attempt to confiscate arms and munitions from civilians, firing the ‘shot heard round the world’.
Wuhan virus –
The monovalent Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines are no longer authorized for use in the United States.
Economy –
Bloomberg) — The dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted as many analysts have failed to account for last year’s wild exchange rate moves, according to Stephen Jen.
The greenback’s share in global reserves slid last year at 10 times the average speed of the past two decades as a number of countries looked for alternatives after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions, Jen and his Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd. colleague Joana Freire wrote in a note. Adjusting for exchange rate movements, the dollar has lost about 11% of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008, they said.
“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions,” Jen and Freire wrote. “Exceptional actions taken by the US and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries,” most of which are emerging economies from the so-called Global South, they said.
Jen is the former Morgan Stanley currency guru who coined the dollar smile theory.
OBSERVATION – The loss of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world is increasingly coming the front as groups like BRICS gain traction.
**
With the softening of the economy, consumers are starting to fall behind on their credit card and loan payments, with delinquency increasing modestly, according to executives at major U.S. banks.
Profits at Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup Inc. beat analyst forecasts as lending giants earned more revenue from clients’ interest payments on credit cards. However, industry chiefs don’t expect the good times to last as a recession looms and customer delinquencies climb.
“We’ve seen some consumer financial health trends gradually weakening from a year ago,” Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said on a conference call Friday to discuss its first quarter results.
OBSERVATION – This is one balloon who’s bursting will be significant, with even the major banks (the ones pushing credit cards) will be hurt, further limiting credit availability to small businesses being hit the hardest by a deep recession.
**
The number of housing starts tumbled in March, an indication that the housing market is taking a hit and may be falling into a recession.
Housing starts measure the change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction. Starts fell 17.2% from March 2022 to this past month, according to a Tuesday report from the Census Bureau. They are now at 1.42 million. From February to March, they fell 0.8%.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/housing-starts-plunge-17-2-raising-recession-fears
OBSERVATION – Been saying it and will keep saying it. The housing market is a key bellweather indicator on the greater economy. It is currently not very healthy and that bodes ill for the economy in general which analysts are noting indicates an increasing probability of a sever recession this year.
Invasion of Illegals –
“The Department of State, in collaboration with the Department of Health and Human Services, is pleased to announce the creation of the Welcome Corps, a new private sponsorship program that empowers everyday Americans to play a leading role in welcoming refugees arriving through the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) and supporting their resettlement and integration as they build new lives in the United States. Over the past year, the American people have extended an extraordinarily welcoming hand to our Afghan allies, Ukrainians displaced by war, and Venezuelans and others fleeing violence and oppression. The Welcome Corps will build on Americans’ generosity of spirit by creating a durable program for Americans in communities across the country to privately sponsor refugees from around the world. The Welcome Corps is the boldest innovation in refugee resettlement in four decades.”
“In the first phase of the program, private sponsors participating in the Welcome Corps will be matched with refugees whose cases are already approved for resettlement under the USRAP. The Department of State will begin facilitating matches between private sponsors and refugees arriving within the first six months of 2023.”
OBSERVATION – Soon to be eventually forced upon the American people since biden has for all practical purposes erased our southern border.
Michael Yon has been warning of this - ““Migrants” in your living room. You may recall I have been warning this day would come. And the day will come. And you will be expected to take in “migrants” and fly a flag or symbol signifying you have “done your duty.”
**
During a Senate hearing Tuesday, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas refused to explain why an exponential surge in child smuggling and exploitation has happened under his watch and denied that the Department had lost track of 85,000 of these children.
Since the beginning of Fiscal Year 2021, 345,807 unaccompanied minors have been allowed to enter the United States through the southwest land border, U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics show.
Thousands of these minors “have ended up in punishing jobs across the country—working overnight in slaughterhouses, replacing roofs, operating machinery in factories—all in violation of child labor laws,” the New York Times reported in February.
OBSERVATION - Democrats new slavery and child sex exploitation scheme. Oh and I’m sure there are plenty of republicans in on the feeding frenzy as well.
**
According to Fox News, U.S. officials are “seeing a 900% surge” in encounters with Chinese nationals at our southern border…
Footage taken by Fox News this week shows how Customs and Border Protection (CBP) are releasing busloads of Chinese nationals into the U.S. interior, just as the U.S.-Mexico border is seeing a 900% surge in encounters with migrants from the communist regime.
We have never witnessed anything like this before.
In 2022, a total of 1,987 Chinese nationals were apprehended along the southern border.
OBSERVATION – This is increasingly a very RED FLAG as these are health, single men of military age. We are increasingly at odds with China and China is very likely assisting in this migration into the US where in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, these illegals will strike internal targets in the US in terror strikes. Very, very much in line with China’s total war doctrine.
**
The number of migrants apprehended by U.S. immigration authorities after crossing the Mexican border without authorization increased by 25% in March as the Biden administration prepares for a major policy shift next month.
U.S. Border Patrol agents recorded over 162,000 apprehensions of migrants in between official ports of entry last month, a jump from the 130,000 apprehensions reported in February, federal statistics released Monday show.
The increase in migration follows a historical pattern of border crossings spiking in the spring. Despite the uptick, the number of migrant apprehensions last month was lower than the tallies recorded in March 2021 and March 2022.
OBSERVATION - Dispite biden’s claims to the contrary, these numbers continue to be at historical highs.
CW2/Domestic violence –
RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.
**
Follow-on to my observations of the Transtifa and racial violence increase. The resent lootings and overall violence levels should be a RED flag when one considers how these mobs may react if we hit a severe recession/depression. They simply don’t have the coping mechanisms nor smarts to do anything but go even more violent.
**
Unrest continues in Akron OH. The details of the shooting and the string of tragic events in Walker’s life are detailed in the Ohio Attorney General’s case file released Monday after a grand jury declined to indict the eight officers who shot him. Akron and the attorney general’s office have refused to release the names of the eight officers.
Shot last June in a traffic stop.
OBSERVATION – BLM appears to be waking up wanting its share of the rioting spotlight.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Carl Vinson to join Nimitz CSG currently stationed near Taiwan. Combined with the USS Ronald Reagan CSG based in Japan, that places three carrier strike groups in the PRC/ROC AO
China –
After the FBI arrested two men in connection with a Chinese ‘secret police station’in New York, activists say there may be as many as six other similar illegal outposts across the US.
In addition to the Manhattan outpost that was shut down on Monday, Chinese police operate another station elsewhere in New York City, and one in Los Angeles, according to a New York Post report citing the advocacy group Safeguard Defenders.
OBSERVATION – Again, stories of these “police stations” have been floating around for many months now. This is just now gaining attention as tensions increase with China over Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday during a visit to Brazil that Moscow wanted the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible. At a news conference with his Brazilian counterpart Mauro Vieira, Lavrov thanked Brazil for its “understanding of the genesis of the situation in Ukraine” and said Russia had “an interest” in the conflict ending as soon as possible.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attempting to breach the current Ukraine defensive set up along the rail line through the town. . A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .
Some increased activity all along the LOC west-northwest of Donetsk. This includes what appears to be an increased attempt to encircle Avdiivka.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 12 Russian drones in Odesa region overnight. There are hits at resorts, no casualties. Ukrainian air defense also shot down 6 Shahed drones near Zaporizhzhia , 1 near Dnipro city and 5 Shahed drones in Zaporizhzhia.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks noted southwest of Kreminna.
OUTLOOK –
With the fight for Bakhmut still fierce, it appears that propaganda/PR trends continue to be projected. Russia now seems to be calling for peace talks - are they nervous about the impending offensive? Talk on the general Ukraine side – they are undermanned and under equipped for an offensive and may have to put it off for a year some say. Lull the Russians into complacency? Hold both sides at arms length for now.
Still the big question of when. Well things are still pretty wet and muddy. But since this is Ukraine’s terf, they may have a better feel for when conditions would be right.
Poland –
Poland has started installing additional security surveillance systems along its border with the Russian province of Kaliningrad, RMF 24 reported on April 18.
Saudi Arabia –
The Saudi foreign minister visited Syria for the first time since the civil war began in 2011. Last week the Syrian foreign minister visited Saudi Arabia and both agreed to end Syria’s international isolation.
Mexico -
The Mexican President has accused the United States of conducting “Espionage Operations” against his Country in an attempt to cause Destabilization in the Region; he further stated that the Mexican Armed Forces will begin Restricting Intelligence from U.S. Agencies.
OBSERVATION – More disrespect from Mexico.
Africa general –
Sudan - Separatist forces in Sudan are believed to have opened fire on a convoy of U.S. diplomats traveling in the nation’s capital of Khartoum on Monday as rival factions continued a bitter conflict over control of the country.
The Japanese Government has announced that they have begun preparations for the Deployment of Aircraft from the Japanese Self-Defense Force to assist in the Evacuation of Japanese and Foreign Citizens from Sudan due to “Deterioration of Security Conditions within the Country.”
OBSERVATION – plan for and extended and brutal civil war. Countries are trying to get their civilians out of the line of fire.