Threat Matrix

p

Globalism / Great Reset –

WEF/GGR globalists continue to lift the curtain little by little to expose their plans for the world. In a paper titled ‘Rationing And Climate Change Mitigation’ the authors assert that a rapid reduction of global emissions is needed and that rationing similar to standards enforced during two world wars, and specifically those measures used during WWII, should be enforced again by governments. Only, this time rationing would not be in the name of supporting a war effort but in the name of fighting the phantom of climate catastrophe.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21550085.2023.2166342?src=

OBSERVATION - Spreading the misery around, except that the elites will exempt themselves from the ‘rationing’. The article was written in 2020 and recently published. Also view in the context of the infamous WEF mantra of “you will own nothing and be happy”

Wuhan virus –

Economy –

U.S. crude oil inventories have been building and are 9% above the five-year average. Refineries are running at 85%, and distillate inventories are 10% below the five-year average. (FO)

OBSERVATION - Good news for now, but any bumps in the systems can wipe it away fast as we’ve seen. This build up doesn’t address the severe drawdown of the strategic reserve.

**
A deeper snowpack in Montana and increased precipitation in the northern parts of the U.S. are expected to benefit Mississippi River water levels, which were low enough to interfere with shipping in 2022. (FO)

OBSERVATION – I haven’t seen the snowpack numbers here yet. Key is filling up control reservoirs like Ft Peck to provide sustained flow during the last summer. I’ve had snow in my yard since last October – unusual – and my Christmas reindeer are still iced in and unable to be extracted from my front yard.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden reacted to a mother who spoke out about her two sons being killed by fentanyl poisoning by saying that happened “during the last administration” — with a chuckle.

OBSERVATION – A totally classless lunatic.

CW2/Domestic violence –

President Biden said in a speech on Wednesday at the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference in Baltimore, that he’s going to ban assault weapons and high capacity magazines “come hell or high water.”

“I know it may make some of you uncomfortable, but that little state above me, Delaware is one of them, has the highest rate, one of the highest rates of gun ownership. But guess what? We’re going to ban assault weapons again come hell or high water and high capacity magazines. When we did it last time to reduce mass deaths,” Biden said.

He also announced increased efforts to push “red flag” laws with new funding.

OBSERVATION - One of the major fracture zones of the impending CW2 is the issue of gun control. Biden doesn’t have the votes to get a new ban passed through congress, so he evidently will continue to go around congress with ATF regulations and these ‘red flag’ laws. On the outside, these laws make some sense – interdicting someone who is dangerously unstable. However, these laws commonly have no recourse for the accused, leaving the them unable to clear their names and get their guns (and rights) back. Ripe for abuse and so far those areas where they’ve been started, abuse is common.

**
In a heated exchange with AG Merrick Garland at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) directly challenged Garland’s corrupt and politicized “Justice” Department, and zeroed in on the once-respected agency’s targeting of traditionalist Roman Catholics. While Garland maintained, in the teeth of the available evidence, that the department is not actually targeting Catholics, he claimed not to know how many spies and informants the feds have in those hotbeds of terrorism, traditional Catholic parishes. In other words, he didn’t say they didn’t have any such spies and informants.

OBSERVATION- Garland face anger from the republican senators like no anger I’ve seen. Take the time listen to Hawley and Cruz literally rake Garland over the coals over fundamentally basic rights. The two tiered justice system expanded under Garland’s watch was fully exposed and his leadership of the DoJ as the AG decimated to him being just a figure head with every one else making the decisions, even against established laws and procedures HE laid out. The two tier law enforcement only makes the red/blue fracture worse – as it is suppose to be by biden et al. Create a situation so messed up that they burn it down to rule over the ashes.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Mark Muffley, 40, faces charges of possession of an explosive at an airport and possessing/attempting to place an explosive on an aircraft. The explosive was concealed in a checked piece of luggage and contained multiple fuses - it triggered an alarm before being loaded onto the plane. Muffley was paged over the airport’s public system, left the airport, but was arrested at his home in Lansford later that same day. Muffley faces charges of possession of an explosive at an airport and possessing/attempting to place an explosive on an aircraft.

OBSERVATION – Initial reports indicates a modified firework of some sort. No specified motive at present, but his departure from the airport following checking in of luggage is highly suspicious to say the least.
Haven’t seen any bio of the alledged bomber yet either. However, from the silence of the media outlets, I’m inclined to suspect that he has leftist ties – possibly even antifa-ish – and doesn’t match the desired leftist narrative about white, conservative domestic threats.

If anyone gets more info, please post to the thread.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
Ramzan Kadyrov, Russian politician who currently serves as the Head of the Chechen Republic, has reportedly fallen very ill. A well-known nephrologist was reportedly flown out of the UAE, as he doesn’t trust Russian doctors. Some report that he was poisoned, others say he has kidney failure. Though an ally of putin’s invasion of Ukraine, he has been seen supporting Wagner’s fight against the MoD. He has few friends in Chechnya and has been targeted for assassination in the past.

Kerch Bridge update –
Full reopening of the road bridge occured on 23 February 2023. Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following attack on the bridge last October. The rail line is the life line of the Russian military effort in southern Ukraine and the repairs are being rushed to reopen the rail line by July 2023.

Economic Impact –
Reuters reports that Russia’s oil revenues for January fell by 40%, $18.5 billion against $30 billion in January 2022.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting remains fierce around Bahkmut as Russia increasingly pressures supply routes into the city. It does appear that the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements have stabilized the situation for Ukraine.

Activity in the Donetsk area, particularly around Avdiyivka to the north is being observed.

Russian has been conducting significant radar jamming operations in hopes of blinding Ukrainian ADA systems to both missile/drone attacks as well as interdicting fighter aircraft.

Crimean front ———
Explosions/air defense sounds reported near Bakhchisaray, Crimea. Located about 230km from the front line. Suspected attack on an ammo supply dump. Note, these distances exceed HIMARS and indicate Ukraine is using some other munition or partisan activity is picking up.

Russian Territory –
Explosion reported in Berezovsky village of Tula region, possible as result of explosive drone hit

**
Strange happenings in in Sushany village of Briansk region. Russian media reported a hostage-taking situation there, according to report 6 people taken. Media blamed a Ukrainian saboteur group calling themselves “Russian volunteer corps” for the incident.

RosGuard (Russian national guard unit) with MLRS GRAD was reportedly deployed in Klimovo district of Briansk region to fight saboteurs.

Kremlin’s spokesperson stated that Putin is receiving reports on situation in Briansk region from FSB’s Bortnkikov, MinDef Shoigu and head of Russian guard Zolotov

“Russian volunteer corps” in a statement announced “ we are not fighting with civilians” and called for arms to fight Putin’s army. “Death to Kremlin’s tyrant”

Authorities of Briansk region have since dismiss all reports about “dozens of saboteurs”, “explosions at infrastructure”, “dozens of hostages” as “Ukrainian disinformation campaign

OUTLOOK –
Thawing is getting worse across Ukraine and that is going to bog Russia’s offensive down significantly. Similarly Ukraine will have to wait as well. This will have impact on the Russia assault on Bahkmut – they will be increasingly without tank/armor support and any such support coming into the battle zone will be via roads – death traps perfected by Ukrainian artillery.

The Ukrainian reinforcements appear to have stabilized the action, likely deployed to get there before LOCs into the city bog down from mud as well as Russian artillery/atgm overwatch. Russia is losing the offensive race and by spring Ukraine will be geared up with many upgraded units and trained personnel. Russia OTOH is frittering away the mobilized personnel and scrounged up armor to gain very little terrain – and unless a second mobilization is executed soon, they will not have the numbers necessary to effect parry the Ukraine offensive this spring.

OSINT followers and analysts continue to monitor Russian naval and strategic bomber activity for the next barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles. Even with the ever growing longer period between attacks, the Russians appear to be over due. Could be that they are evaluating the effectiveness of their radar jamming efforts and trying to identify weaknesses to exploit.

The activity around Sushany village of Briansk region looks to be an effort to either misinform (disinformation campaign) or cause rear area chaos. Russian defensive measures in areas adjacent to Ukraine are soft because the personnel and effort is being directed towards the Donbas campaign. Those left for guard duty are likely to be the bottom of the barrel personnel and units unfit for the fight. Again, like the recent drone attacks, Russian planners are being forced to scramble to address unconventional warfare in Russia in order to prevent negative PR on the progress of the war.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Tensions remain high.

Please add me to the ping.

Added.

Wuhan virus –

The United States Senate has successfully passed legislation to declassify the origins of COVID-19.

OBSERVATION – Even the democrats are seeing that this is a potential hit to them in the 2024 elections and read from the tea leaves that they better be out front on it. Of course the swamp will do everything to keep information on the origins obfuscated and under wraps for a long as possible.

**
In related- Newly released emails reveal that in January 2020, Dr. Anthony Fauci possessed crucial information regarding the origins of COVID-19. However, during that critical period when the nation was just beginning to comprehend the virus, Dr. Fauci opted not to disclose the information to the American people. Rather, he worked to keep it hidden, The Federalist reported this week.

https://thefederalist.com/2021/07/14/dr-faucis-emails-tell-the-story-of-panic-lies-and-a-possible-cover-up/

OBSERVATION – By this stage, Fauci should be behind bars. He lied under oath to congress, he profited from the plandemic and he skates off scott free.

**
Defense officials, speaking to the House Armed Services personnel subcommittee earlier this week, admitted they were still considering disciplinary action against troops who refused an order to get the COVID vaccine.

Which, with the knowledge we have today regarding the poor efficacy of the vaccine in preventing the spread of COVID, and the fact that the vaccine mandate has been rescinded with the benefit of hindsight, is astounding.

Gilbert Cisneros Jr., the undersecretary of defense for personnel, told the panel that servicemembers who refused the vaccine and did not apply for an exemption were still being reviewed.

“In order to maintain good order and discipline, it’s very important that our service members go and follow orders when they are lawful,” Cisneros said, adding that each case was being evaluated.

OBSERVATION - Starting on the basis that the DoD’s directives were illegal to begin with. They were NOT authorized to used the emergency use versions of the jab – only the official approved version – which has never come into existance. Secondly, DoD violated the law in blanket rejections of religious exemption requests.
The purpose is loud and clear – demoralize the military and reduce its effectiveness as a fighting force.

Economy –

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped back over 7% on Thursday, rising to 7.1%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Growing fears that inflation is not cooling off are pushing bond yields higher. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html

OBSERVATION – Housing and mortgage provide one view into the state of the economy, and it seems to be still on life support. The housing industry influences so much of the economy that when it suffers, the rest suffer as well.

**
Related - U.S. home prices could tumble as much as 20% as the highest mortgage rates in two decades threaten to trigger a “deep global housing slide,” according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The economists — Lauren Black and Enrique Martínez-García — pointed to signs of trouble detected in the U.S. and German housing markets that threaten to “pose a vulnerability to the global outlook because of the size of those nations’ economies and significant cross-border financial spillovers.”

Some of that peril, they said, stems from an affordability crisis. Signs of diminished affordability in the U.S. have usually preceded global deterioration.
“The possibility of a domino effect, where investors pull out of international housing seeking safety and liquidity elsewhere, also raises concerns of spillovers beyond Germany or the U.S. to the global economy,” they added.
For the U.S. housing market to return in line with its fundamentals, the researchers estimated that it would need to experience a 19.5% decline. Higher mortgage rates threaten to make the price correction even more dramatic.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-could-plunge-risk-deep-housing-slide-fed-economist-warns

OBSERVATION – Lower house prices vs high interest rates - not a good mix for recovery , let along economic improvments.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Walmart confirmed this week that it is closing all remaining stores in Portland.
Now this is being posted here instead of Economy because the closures are directly linked to the uncontrolled rise in crime following the BLM/Antifa riots of the 2020s and Antifa/BLM being the dominant political force the progressive city/state leadership jump to. The next set or riots- not if but when – will see BLM/Antifa push further out from the city centers even quicker as stores worth looting will be gone and the ‘safer’ more prosperous suburbs become more enticing. Whether or not these suburbs stand up and forcefully push back against these looters will need to be seen. BLM/Antifa learned that they can’t go too far out of town because they were strongly pushed back by locals ready for things to get spicy.

**
Garland says the DOJ doesn’t prosecute many Antifa attacks on pro-life pregnancy centers bc they happen to be at night.

OBSERVATION- SMH, does he realize what he said and how lame of an excuse it was? He best presented the case for two tiered justice in this one sentence alone.

**
Rasmussen has a new poll out showing that a whopping 61 percent of all voters, including a stunning 57 percent of Democrats, believe that federal agents played a role in inciting the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021.

In answer to the question “How likely is it that undercover government agents helped provoke the Capitol riot,” 61 percent of likely voters said it was either very likely (39 percent) or somewhat likely (22 percent) that they had done so.

59 percent of men and 63 percent of women believed that federal agents had “helped provoke the Capitol riot.” This major majority of voters who believe the Capitol riot was not simply naturally occurring breaks down among political party affiliation as well, with 57 percent of Democrats saying it is either very likely (34 percent) or somewhat likely (23 percent) while for Republicans the numbers are 51 percent saying very likely, and 19 percent saying somewhat likely.

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-61-of-all-voters-including-57-of-democrats-believe-it-is-likely-that-feds-helped-provoke-jan-6-riot?utm_campaign=64487

OBSERVATION – Remarkably high democrat response. I expect that if (now there is concerns that the speaker wont release the videos as promised) the unedited videos from the day are released, this number would go higher.
Critical to note – just about every major event over the past several years has had significant federal agent involvement – either as informers or actual agent provocateurs.

**
About 65 Wisconsin families are currently being held hostage by the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa. The tribe has erected illegal barricades on the only roads that lead to their homes, preventing residents from entering and leaving. The only way out of the reservation is over frozen lakes that are quickly melting with the coming spring.

The yellow barricades and chained-together concrete blocks were set up 31 days ago over a bitter land dispute among two non-tribal title companies, the town of Lac du Flambeau, and the tribe. Meanwhile, racial tensions are rising, and many fear violence in a standoff that’s also shining a long-needed spotlight on the dysfunctional arrangement between Indian tribes and the U.S. federal government.

To open the roads for only 15 years, Tribal President John Johnson is demanding $20 million. It’s an amount Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany describes as tantamount to “extortion.” Tiffany also says it’s unlawful since all four roads in question receive federal funding through the Tribal Transportation Program. According to Tiffany, the tribe has received a total of $218 million in federal funds since 2013.

OBSERVATION – Underreported aspect of the CW2 are tribal actions to violate rights of non-indians on reservation properties. In multiple states, tribes are trying to flex their muscles to restrict/limit any actions that cross their ‘lands’. Here in the Redoubt, this has resulted in non-tribal law enforcement pulling back any assistance (because tribal police refused to cooperate), and now the tribes are crying for help to deal with skyrocketing crime and human trafficking related issues. In the Wisconsin case above, there is a potential for violence as violence could happen should the tribes not back down from their demands.

**
Multiple Ohio elementary school kids are facing assault charges after disturbing video caught the group of black students attacking white students — and forcing them to say “Black lives matter,” according to cops.
Footage obtained by WKEF showed a tall student grabbing a much smaller one around the back of the head and marching him across the Springfield playground, with another joining to hold the struggling victim.
Others joined in when he was taken to an area near swings — with one charging in and knocking the helpless youngster to the ground, seemingly throwing a punch.

OBSERVATION – This story gained traction once videos of the assaults were released. This is the result of CRT instruction, BLM radicalism and just out and out poor job raising the kids (likely without a father). I’m not anticipating very much to be done by the school or other authorities and it is ok in their philosophy to attack whites (and Asians for that matter) just because.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

We are seeing now why Mark Muffley is not leading news reports on the bomb incident. –

FBI Special Agent Eddie Garcia testified that Muffley confirmed he was aware he had the explosive in his bag along with lithium batteries, butane and a small torch lighter, and he knew they were all prohibited.

Prosecutor Sherri Stephan also said Muffley admitted to using drugs including methamphetamine and that the pipe found in his suitcase had meth residue in it. Stephan said he had several previous run-ins with the law, including having his probation and bail revoked on multiple occasions. Stephan said Muffley had “shown a pattern of not being able to follow the rules of release.”

OBSERVATION - Every indication of your typical druggie democrat supporter FAFO.

Cyber Warfare –

Today, the Biden-Harris Administration released the National Cybersecurity Strategy to secure the full benefits of a safe and secure digital ecosystem for all Americans. In this decisive decade, the United States will reimagine cyberspace as a tool to achieve our goals in a way that reflects our values: economic security and prosperity; respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms; trust in our democracy and democratic institutions; and an equitable and diverse society. To realize this vision, we must make fundamental shifts in how the United States allocates roles, responsibilities, and resources in cyberspace.

1. We must rebalance the responsibility to defend cyberspace by shifting the burden for cybersecurity away from individuals, small businesses, and local governments, and onto the organizations that are most capable and best-positioned to reduce risks for all of us.

2. We must realign incentives to favor long-term investments by striking a careful balance between defending ourselves against urgent threats today and simultaneously strategically planning for and investing in a resilient future.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/02/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-national-cybersecurity-strategy/

OBSERVATION – Deeper look indicates another push for digital identity and de-anonymize internet users who engage in what the Biden administration calls “malinformation.” Hence a hidden shift for more censorship with the potential for govt to go after individuals for the crime of “malinformation”, which we all know by now is a euphemism for being against the regime’s narrative.
This Initiative also places the burden on the govt and away from individuals – increasing govt controls over individual freedom (and stupidity) on the internet.

**
Hackers breached a website that allows people to buy and sell guns, exposing the identities of its users, TechCrunch has learned.
The breach exposed reams of sensitive personal data for more than 550,000 users, including customers’ full names, home addresses, email addresses, plaintext passwords and telephone numbers. Also, the stolen data allegedly makes it possible to link a particular person with the sale or purchase of a specific weapon.

“With this data, you can then take a public listing…and resolve it back to the [data in the stolen database] so you have the name, email and physical address and phone number of [the seller] and presumably, the location of the gun,” Troy Hunt, a cybersecurity expert who runs the popular data breach repository and alerting service Have I BeenPwned, told TechCrunch. (The researcher who found the breach shared the data with Hunt so he can upload it to Have I BeenPwned.)

OBSERVATION – The site hit was GunAuction.com, a site that since 1998 allows people to put guns for auction online. Not only could criminals access the data for their nefarious purposes, the feds likely could have accessed it as well for a covert database of gun owners.

POLITICAL FRONT –

KJP: Joe Biden does not support preventing noncitizens from voting in Washington, D.C.

OBSERVATION – DC is moving to allow noncitizens to vote in elections, the senate democrats last night closed ranks to allow DC to move forward with the plan. Other blue cities have attempted to do the same over the past couple years, but those plans have not held up well in courts.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********
Secretary of State Antony Blinken met briefly with his Russian counterpart on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in India on Thursday, and said afterwards he had urged Moscow to end its “war of aggression” in Ukraine and reverse its decision to suspend participation in the New START arms control treaty.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, speaking to Russian television after Blinken’s comments to the press, said they amounted to “PR and self-promotion.”
“They are well aware that the American people are asking what the Biden administration has done in the field of bilateral relations and the problems that it has created,” she told the Rossiya 1 channel. “Blinken needs to show something to the people, and he has nothing to show except to catch Lavrov along the corridor.”

NUCLEAR THREATS –
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, speaking at the United Nations conference on disarmament, warned that increasing Western support for Ukraine could result in an open conflict between the U.S. and Russia. He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s suspension of the New START nuclear treaty was necessary since Russia could not accept U.S. inspections of its facilities as long as Washington and NATO have openly declared the defeat of the Russian state as their ultimate goal. (FO)

OBSERVATION – continued saber rattling and trying to frame their rejection of START treaty requirement on the basis that the US is actually at war with Russia.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces appear to have temporarily scaled back efforts to encircle Bakhmut from both the southwest and northeast and may instead be focusing on pressuring Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the city by concentrating on the northeastern offensive. The decision could be in part because Russia cannot get support vehicles or even armor into position to provide support due to the deteriorating soil conditions. Combat continues to be fierce.

Russian Territory –
Strange happenings continue in Sushany village of Briansk region.

3 RosGuard troopers and police sapper wounded as their vehicle hit a landmine near Sushany village of Briansk region

The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a border incursion in Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian officials denied the Kremlin’s accusations and claimed that Russian officials might be facing problems with increasing partisan activity in Russia.

Operative Command “North”(Ukraine) had warned about possible provocation in the area over a week ago. This consisted of unmarked Russian miliary vehicles with ‘soldiers’ wearing Ukrainian style digital camo uniforms. You would have read it first
here

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=123#123

Many observers and analysts are coming to the conclusion that this is a False Flag attempt by Russia. However, they should at least let their response units know where they planted the mines.

**
Loud explosion was reported in Kolomna of Moscow region, audible across the town
Kolomna hosts multiple strategic enterprises, like KB Mashinostroyeniya or KBM, designers of Igla and Strela MANPADS, Tochka U and Iskander missiles. Russia authorities trying to deny that anything happened.

OUTLOOK –
Any potential for a quick Russian victory at Bahkmut are fading as the mud gets worse and Ukainian defenses stiffen from reinforcements. Russia has expended a lot of resources on the fight and still can’t get the mission accomplished. This is not to say the Ukraine will not have to realize a tactical withdrawal in the near future, but now the seasons are changing into its favor with the arrival of mud season. Their defense of Bahkmut has achieved a key objective – given Ukraine an opportunity to mobilize, train, equip and rearm for their offensive operations once the ground dries out again, while at the same time deflating the Russian mobilization and offensive in the east, placing Russian forces in a weaker position to defend against an Ukrainian attack. Russia doesn’t have the time to rebuild forces with the constant bleeding of men and resources in their fruitless attacks.

Videos on social media show the battlefields turning into goo as things thaw out. Vehicular traffic is near a standstill and even movement by foot is bogged down by clays attaching to the boots and creating a monster to try to slog along with – in addition to sinking calf deep in places.

To take with a little skepticism, Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces have concentrated a significant portion of their heavy military equipment in Luhansk Oblast but have been unable to use most of it due to unfavorable weather conditions on the frontlines. Haidai added that Russians are using Terminator armored fighting vehicles and T-90M tanks in the Kreminna direction, which indicates that Russian forces are continuing to prioritize this direction for an advance.

The big question – will Russia motorpool most of the buildup or disperse to keep safe from Ukrainian interdiction?

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated on March 2 that reports of Serbian authorities secretly transferring multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) ammunition to Ukraine are a matter of “deepest concern.” Serbian defense company Krusik supplied over 3,500 Grad MLRS rockets to Ukraine but claimed that it is not clear that Krusik knew that Ukraine was the final buyer of the rockets.

OBSERVATION – Wonder what happen in the Serbian calculations on their relationship with Russia? Wasn’t but a half year ago or so Serbia was trying to ratchet up tensions with NATO with a confrontation with Moldova. Since then the Serbs have staged an incredible pull back from Russian support. Now going as far as allowing Ukraine to get munitions for use against Russia.

Russian authorities appear to be concerned over a growing loss of leverage in Serbia, which Russia has worked to integrate into the Russian sphere of influence for many years.

I also think that Serbia is realizing that for economic growth, they need to hitch their wagon to the EU, who’s membership they’ve been trying to cultivate. Russia’s economy is likely to be failing fast as the war progresses - and that will hurt Serbia in the long run.

Israel –

In an unannounced visit, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley and other U.S. Defense Officials will reportedly arrive in Israel later today in order to conduct High-Level Meetings with Israeli Military and Intelligence Officials on the threat that Iran possesses to the region.

OBSERVATION - One of two things. Milley got word that Israel was about to get into ‘go’ mode for a more direct Iranian strike and want to stall, OR he is there to help coordinate support. Given the anti-Israeli policies of the biden regime the first is more likely than the later.

Iran –

Iranians chanted “death to the child-killing government” after eight schools reported poisonings in one day.

Reports of Iranian schoolgirls being poisoned at school continue to stream in from across Iran, with over 1,000 students in more than 50 schools impacted so far, according to opposition reports this week.
The poisonings were first reported in late November, with the pace of reports rising in recent weeks. On Wednesday, at least eight schools throughout Iran reported poisoning incidents in one day, according to opposition media.

According to the 1500tasvir account, which covers anti-government protests in Iran, some students have seen plainclothes security agents outside the schools right before the poisonings. Some reported eyewitness accounts have claimed that a small explosion was heard at some of the schools followed by a strong smell and then the symptoms of poisoning began.

OBSERVATION – There is evidence that suggests that these gas attacks are a response to the national protests that occurred several months ago over the death of a woman, beaten to death by “morality police’ for not wearing a head covering. Reports also indicate that schools with predominantly girls attending are the main target. This looks like it could trigger a new round of national protests.

Misc of Note –

A top union leader penned a letter to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg about a number of rail workers at the Norfolk Southern derailment site in East Palestine, Ohio, who have become sick, likely from the toxic chemical spill. CNBC obtained the letter on Wednesday.

Jonathan Long, a union representative for the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, titled the letter “Norfolk Southern Is Dangerous to America” and said about 40 workers were ordered by the railway to clean up the wreckage.
Long said workers weren’t given proper personal protection equipment to clean up the toxic wreckage. He said many workers weren’t supplied respirators, protective clothing, or eye protection.

As a result of the chemical exposure, many rail workers “reported that they continue to experience migraines and nausea, days after the derailment, and they all suspect that they were willingly exposed to these chemicals at the direction of [Norfolk Southern].”

OBSERVATION – SMH, this is a hazwaste cleanup operation and the railroad (and any contracted for the work), must have specific PPE to do it. Unbelieveable that the EPA and Ohio state environmental regulators haven’t put their foot down. Having been involved in various degrees on environmental clean-up this is just mind boggling.

**
Massive Sierra snowfall can have mixed blessings. All dependent on the weather. Still a lot of weather season left and the huge amounts of low snow make a scenario ripe for a Pineapple Express rain on snow event that could overwhelm the flood control system of Kalifornia. Such is a higher probability to the ‘soft’ spring and gentle warming. Kalifornia is a land of extremes and we are seeing it bigly.

Rasmussen has a new poll out showing that a whopping 61 percent of all voters, including a stunning 57 percent of Democrats, believe that federal agents played a role in inciting the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021.

Not stunning or whooping to those of us in flyover (well, except the Cheney family) but must be a total blown away shock to people living in DC and the surrounding 'mansion-heavy' elite counties around DC.

Walmart confirmed this week that it is closing all remaining stores in Portland.

I expect Portland politicians to make it illegal to close any store.

Store owners gotta bend over, get a shaft in the butt, and lose money.

Every patriot/conservative group needs to know there are informers and plants. Screen PERSEC very closely and use common sense before jumping into any action.

Portland politicians have their heads in a hole in the ground. Living in disbelief.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission announced on March 1 it is seeking information from the public “on chronic chemical hazards from gas ranges.”

The commission released a draft public notice on the request for information, but has not released the final notice. The final one should be published in the Federal Register next week, a commission spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email.

The RFI comes after the Department of Energy proposed new rules for gas stoves and other cooking appliances.

“As required by Congress, the Department of Energy is proposing efficiency standards for gas and electric cooktops—we are not proposing bans on either,” a spokesperson for the department said in February.
The proposal would block approximately half of the gas cooking appliances currently on the market, the DOE said in a recent analysis.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/federal-agency-advances-gas-stove-proposal-from-commissioner-who-floated-ban_5097960.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION – Like a zombie, the gas stove ban rises from the dead as the govt moves forward like there was no pushback from when Trumka first pushed the ban several months ago. This is how a tyrannical govt works, like a glacier, slowly pushing opposition out of the way to attain its goals.

**
BRUSSELS (AP) — Hundreds of tractors driven by angry farmers protesting a plan to cut nitrate levels converged on Brussels on Friday, creating major traffic disruption in Belgium’s capital city.
The BB farmers union and several others combined efforts to gather more than 2,700 farm vehicles, according to Brussels police.
…
The Flemish regional government is struggling to find a deal to cut nitrate pollution over farmers’ objections that it would put many out of business.
Farmers also claim that their trade has to make much deeper cuts than industry and want to see a more equitable spread.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/03/04/farmers-blockade-eu-capital-to-fight-fertiliser-restrictions/

OBSERVATION – The European war on farmers and ranchers continue. They have skyrocketing food prices (even higher than here in the US) and their plans do very little to reduce their carbon ‘footprint’, especially in comparison to China and India, who are multiplying coal and gas power plants like rabbits. But the WEF/GGR pick the low hanging fruit first and the sheeple of Europe are ripe. And remember – you will have nothing (to eat) but will be happy.

Wuhan virus –

Early, early on in the wuhan jab plandemic, I noted reports that the mRNA turned out to be an abortificant – causing miscarriages in the majority of pregnant women tested. Now the understanding that the jab further affected other aspects of a woman’s reproductive system (as well as a man’s) – resulting in loss of fertility and ability to get pregnant. Now more evidence is out showing that Pfizer deliberately played games with preliminarily testing on pregnant women and misrepresented the results in order to get the CDC to approve use on pregnant women (follow the $$$). FOIA is coming around to bite them and hopefully place a bunch of Pfizer execs as well as officials in the CDC and HHS behind bars or at the very least shelling outboo-coo bucks in legal fees and judgements.

https://maryannedemasi.substack.com/p/exclusive-whatever-happened-to-pfizers

**
Official British Government reports confirming eight times more people died due to Covid-19 vaccination within six months of the vaccine rollout than had died of Covid-19 within eighteen months are extremely worrying and evidence that the Covid-19 vaccines currently on offer should have been withdrawn from public use nearly 2 years ago.

According to official NHS data which can be viewed here, from March 2020 up to the 25th of August 2021; a period of 18 months, 90,147 Covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test have been recorded in England hospitals.
Of these 86.315 all died of other serious pre-existing conditions including dementia, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, chronic neurological disease, and heart disease. However, they were added to the Covid statistics due to having received a positive test within 28 days of their death.

https://expose-news.com/2023/03/01/covid-vaccination-8x-deadlier-than-disease/

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/covid19/covid-deaths-21-report-week-32.pdf

OBSERVATION – The medical tyranny is not able to keep these numbers under wraps anymore as study upon study continue to come out showing the deadly affects of the jab on society as a whole.

**
“Real Time” host Bill Maher took a victory lap on Friday on behalf of all COVID “dissenters” like himself throughout the course of the pandemic.

Following the revelations that U.S. government agencies like the FBI and the Energy Department are endorsing the COVID lab-leak theory and studies that show the effectiveness of natural immunity and the ineffectiveness of mask-wearing and lockdowns, Maher suggested a large swath of Americans should feel vindicated.

“I feel like the people who were the dissenters are looking pretty good. I was one of them,” Maher said during a panel discussion. “I remember getting a lot of s-— from a lot of places.”

Maher scoffed at January 2021 Daily Beast headline that read “Bill Maher Pushes Steve Bannon Wuhan Lab COVID Conspiracy.” “Yeah, it was just Steve Bannon,” Maher sarcastically reiterated. “Well, it was, you know, the former head of the CDC, it’s the FBI, it’s the Energy Department.”

https://www.foxnews.com/media/bill-maher-says-covid-dissenters-looking-pretty-good-following-lab-leak-theory-developments

OBSERVATION – News FLASH, blind squirrel finds nut.

Invasion of Illegals –

Federal authorities have not yet brought criminal charges against two Honduran nationals who allegedly shot and killed a bald eagle in Nebraska to eat it for dinner.

On February 28, Stanton County sheriffs arrested two Honduran nationals found carrying a dead bald eagle after responding to a report of a suspicious vehicle outside of the Wood Duck State Wildlife Management.
The two individuals, 20-year-old Ramiro Hernandez-Tziquin and 20-year-old Domingo Zetino-Hernandez, spoke no English and only carried documents from the Honduran consulate as a form of identification, according to Stanton County Sheriff Mike Unger.

Killing a bald eagle, the country’s national bird, violates the 1940 Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act, a federal law with a maximum punishment of one year in prison.

OBSERVATION – SMH, protected class even to killing a bald eagle.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month during a routine health screening, the White House has said.
All cancerous tissue was removed and no further treatment is required, Mr Biden’s doctor said.
Kevin O’Connor, Mr Biden’s doctor, wrote in a note provided to media on Friday that the lesion was removed from Mr Biden’s chest on 16 February at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center outside Washington DC.
“No further treatment is required,” he said, adding that the area has “healed nicely” since the biopsy was taken.
The note said that the type of cancer found - basal cell carcinoma - does not normally spread, or metastasise.

OBSERVATION – Keeping this under wraps, failed transparency.

**
Now one to raise your blood pressure futher - The Pentagon’s inspector general for Afghanistan complains in a new report the Biden administration is hiding classified annexes detailing side deals it made with the Taliban before the withdrawal, including restrictions on US fighting and Taliban counterterror efforts.

Biden made US troops in Afghanistan coordinate w/ his envoy Khalilzad on how & when they could engage with the Taliban enemy. Troops were not allowed to engage even when checkpoints attacked. In Doha, Khalilzad brokered withdrawal w/ the Taliban 5 Obama freed from Gitmo.”

OBSERVATION – Treasonous, how may soldiers were killed because of this abomination.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Air Mobility Command has directed its refueling and cargo planes to obscure the majority of identifying information painted on the aircraft, citing national security concerns — an unusual move that is alarming to government watchdogs.

James Stewart, a spokesman for Air Mobility Command, told Military.com in an emailed statement that airmen’s missions take them around the globe and often involve sensitive movements of cargo — the main reason behind the change.

OBSERVATION – OPSEC is one reasonable answer the AMC gave. A lot of other conspiracy theories floating around concerning more nefarious reasons, which I don’t see as valid.

POLITICAL FRONT –

CPAC is closing up for the season. I payed little attention the proceedings as this was an off year and there was a lot of blovating and chest beating as various factions and individuals jockeyed for position on the national stage for the 2024 dumpster fire.

**
A Chinese military company that was linked to Hunter Biden’s investment firm is now assisting the Russian military in the war in Ukraine, according to a report.

BHR Partners investment firm, where Hunter Biden was a board member and 10% stakeholder, worked with AVIC Automotive, a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), to purchase the Michigan-based Henniges Automotive in September 2015, according to the Washington Examiner.

As the Wall Street Journal reported on February 4, AVIC’s subsidiary, AVIC International Holding Corporation, in October shipped $1.2 million worth of parts for Russian Su035 jet fighters to sanctioned Russian defense giant Rostec’s subsidiary Kret.

The Biden administration in recent weeks has warned that China is contemplating military aid to Ukraine, making Hunter Biden’s connection to a Chinese military company providing assistance to Russia a potential political headache for the administration.

https://bonginoreport.com/top-stories/hunter-biden-linked-to-chinese-military-company-now-aiding-russia-in-ukraine-war

OBSERVATION – Words escape me as to how to describe this level of corruption in the white house – and the words I do find would have me banned from the site.

**
President Joe Biden’s willingness to sign a Republican-sponsored resolution to block new District of Columbia laws is angering some Democrats, and Rep. Debbie Lesko tells Newsmax that their reaction is “kind of fun to watch,” even if Biden’s decision is surprising.
“You know some of my Democratic colleagues, in fact, the majority of them really have this [opposition] against the police and law enforcement,” the Arizona Republican said on Newsmax’s “John Bachman Now” Friday. “They want to reduce criminal penalties on criminals and that’s why I believe crime is going up.”
The new D.C. laws overhaul how crime is prosecuted and punished in the nation’s capital, and by signing the resolution, Biden will allow Congress to nullify such laws for the first time in more than three decades.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/debbie-laslo-biden-dc/2023/03/03/id/1110988/

OBSERVATION – Deep, dark blue DC wants to become a more crime ridden hell hole than it already is – even too much for biden.

China –

Initial US intelligence suggesting that China is considering supplying lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine was obtained from Russian government officials, sources say. U.S. officials then spent weeks corroborating the information from other sources of intelligence, the current and former officials said, and with allies who also brought additional streams of information. -NBC News

OBSERVATION – China playing the game and what Russia doesn’t realize is that China will eventually ‘own’ Russia.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Russian Personnel Issues –-
When Russia “mobilized” additional soldiers in late 2022, they did so in an improvised fashion because there was no precedent for such an action in a peacetime war like the one in Ukraine. This mobilization was left to regional (city and provincial) authorities, who had to select who would go PLUS provide uniforms, weapons and other basic supplies as well as pay and benefits. This saved the Defense Ministry a lot of money that it didn’t have in the first place. This seemed to be an innovative solution to many problems. It wasn’t. When the Defense Ministry was in charge there was some standardization in the process. In this case there wasn’t.

This meant that there was a wide variety of troops in terms of age, physical condition and willingness to serve in the army. The army did not provide any additional training for the newly mobilized troops. Some regions sent military veterans or even conducted some brief training. There was no time for much more. The mobilized troops had to be delivered to army units in Ukraine as soon as possible. In Ukraine the mobilized regional troops faced a grim situation. The army was unable to adequately supply its troops in Ukraine because the Ukrainians were very good at locating, attacking and destroying most of the supplies Russian sent to Ukraine for their troops. To make matters worse, there were corrupt officials in the Defense Ministry who often diverted supplies or the cash used to purchase them. Corruption was a major problem nationwide for a long time but this decentralized manpower mobilization scheme made it worse.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmoral/articles/20230304.aspx

Economic Impact –
Because of the war in Ukraine, Russia may run out of money in the next year, Russian oligarch and millionaire Oleg Deripaska, one of the richest men in Russia, warned on Friday.
“It seems like Russia won’t have money already next year, and we’ll need foreign investors,” he said at a economy conference in Siberia.
This statement came in contrast to a statement made by Russian President Vladimir Putin last week in which he said that the economy was proving resilient in the face of sanction place on Russia.
Western countries announced more than 11,300 sanctions against Russia since it invaded Ukraine last February.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-733308

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut and has initiated that withdrawl. The Ukraine has preemptively destroyed bridges is likely an indicator that Ukrainian troops may seek to inhibit Russian movement in eastern 0Bakhmut and limit potential westward Russian egress routes out of Bakhmut.
Lead elements of Russian forces are beginning to probe the defenses of Chasiv Yar, the next Ukrainian stronghold to the west as it seeks to complete the envelope around Bahkmut.

Russian forces have been fighting to take Bakhmut, a city with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 people, since roughly May 2022 and have suffered devastating casualties in the process. Some conservative estimate have 7 Russian losses per 1 Ukrainian.

Some increased Russian activity along the border of Sumy Oblast on approach routes to the town of Konotop – an invasion route Russian attempted a year ago.

Donetsk sector also relatively active.

Russian Territory –
Russian officials released limited info about the March 2 incursion in Bryansk Oblast but failed to provide clarity about what actually transpired. Putin did not address the reported incident in a meeting with the Russian Security Council, per a readout.

Russian special services reportedly detained Ukrainian saboteurs from the “Russian Volunteer Corps” who attacked two villages yesterday in Bryansk Oblast

OUTLOOK –
Looks like Bahkmut’s days are numbered, but it served its purpose of bleeding the Russian (and Wagner) armies immensely. Fighting for that village since May 2022, now Russia is facing another series of bloody and destructive battles to continue the move west, across even less favorable terrain. If the 7:1 Russian / Ukraine casuality ratio is correct, Ukraine’s stubborn defense of the town served its purpose well. Russia may gain a small morale boost, with Wagner trying to claim all of it, but the repayment when Ukraine takes the offensive will be bitter.

Continued fierce fighting around Bahkmut as Ukraine extracts it forces to the next defensive line. Depending on how quickly Ukraine breaks contact and redeploys, Russia will have to consolidate its gains – leading to a break in action made even worse by the increasingly muddy conditions.

Russia failed to prevent Ukrainian planning and preparation for its offensive. OTOH, Ukraine effectively diluted Russia’s efforts of a substantial winter offensive and set its miliary back several months due to losses. Bahkmut will be a pyrrhic victory on the books, one that apparently has done little to advance their objectives.

Iran –

Protests against the use of some kind of poisionous gas against school girls are continuing throughout Iran. Authorities responding in various degrees of violence against the protestors.

A Chinese military company that was linked to Hunter Biden’s investment firm is now assisting the Russian military in the war in Ukraine, according to a report. BHR Partners investment firm, where Hunter Biden was a board member and 10% stakeholder, worked with AVIC Automotive, a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), to purchase the Michigan-based Henniges Automotive in September 2015, according to the Washington Examiner. As the Wall Street Journal reported on February 4, AVIC’s subsidiary, AVIC International Holding Corporation, in October shipped $1.2 million worth of parts for Russian Su035 jet fighters to sanctioned Russian defense giant Rostec’s subsidiary Kret. The Biden administration in recent weeks has warned that China is contemplating military aid to Ukraine, making Hunter Biden’s connection to a Chinese military company providing assistance to Russia a potential political headache for the administration.

https://bonginoreport.com/top-stories/hunter-biden-linked-to-chinese-military-company-now-aiding-russia-in-ukraine-war

Lucky for Biden the corrupt American 'press' will cover for him. Disgusting little toadies.

Had some other matters of greater importance that sucked my time away from preparing yesterday’s report. Today incorporates stuff for yesterday to catch up.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) on Tuesday published a draft plan to regulate cryptocurrencies, saying the plan’s implementation “will facilitate the development and advancement of the Israeli capital market and encourage innovation and competition.”

OBSERVATION – Until CBDCs come fully on line, the existing digital currency (cryptos) need to be brought under govt control. This is being worked on all across the globe and not just Israel. Cannot have a challenger to the globalist digital market.

**
Former Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Director Amanda Lefton recommended late last year that, as part of its climate agenda, the Department of the Interior (DOI) move forward with higher royalty fees for an oil and gas lease sale spanning 958,202 acres in the Cook Inlet off the coast of Alaska, according to the memo obtained by Fox News Digital. DOI Assistant Secretary Laura Daniel-Davis ultimately signed off on the recommendation.

OBSERVATION – This impacts us with higher fuel prices, but also follows in the goal of the WEF in killing the fossil fuel industry, by making it more expensive for oil companies to drill and extract oil.

**
Tractors paralyzed Brussels over the weekend in protest against the government’s nitrogen plan which is expected to lead to the closure of many farms.

OBSERVATION – The question is when will the rank and file citizens of Belgium stand up with the farmers? It will be too late for them once the govt has closed all the farms as they are planning to do and they face the economic fallout in the form of higher prices and unemployment. Remember – shutting down agricultural production is a key goal of the WEF/GGR crowd.

Wuhan virus –

Recently, a dog food product was recalled because it could make pets sick. A few days prior to that, thyroid medication for humans was also recalled by the FDA because it was subpotent while a blood pressure medication was withdrawn because it contained a cancer-causing impurity. The FDA also recently recalled chocolates because they might contain nuts in them since some people might be allergic to nuts. In the past, thousands of bags of lettuce were recalled because one bag was found to have listeria even though nobody had become sick.

Which begs the question: why haven’t the COVID “vaccines” been recalled?
The above products were recalled because they could be harmful. The COVID “vaccines” have been conclusively shown to be not only detrimental, but fatal.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/why-hasnt-the-fda-recalled-the-covid-vaccines/

OBSERVATION – Good question WHY. Several reasons 1) follow the money and 2) a deliberate effort to reduce global population and 3) Global leverage for tyrannical power.

**
New evidence suggests Dr. Fauci prompted the drafting of “Proximal Origins” to disprove the lab leak theory, the authors of this paper skewed available evidence to achieve that goal, and Dr. Jeremy Farrar went uncredited despite significant involvement.

OBSERVATION – The depth and width of the corruption under Fauci is unbelievable. Given all the other factual revelations on how he handled wuhan (from lab creation in wuhan to the plandemic) such medical corruption is no longer surprising to me. What is surprising is why he hasn’t been locked up yet.

Economy –

More rumblings about the price of oil going north of $100/barrel by early summer.

CW2/Domestic violence –

The “week of action” for the self-styled “forest defenders” who are doing their best to stop the construction of a police training center in a forest just south of Atlanta started out yesterday with major action. Antifa related groups firebombed construction equipment, set fire to other existing structures and assaulted police with Molotov cocktails and fireworks. There were even reports of gunshots – though likely fireworks. I expect violence to grow as more activists flock to fight the fash. Nearly 3 dozen protestors/rioters have reportedly been arrested.

OBSERVATION - This looks to be a localized insurrection for now. If there are more protestor deaths due to FAFO, there could be some expanded protests in Antifa stronghold cities as occurred several months ago. The preparation for violence and execution of attacks on police indicate that they are ready for a more aggressive confrontation and things could well escalate quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised if the National Guard isn’t brought up to clear the rioters out.

**
Credit card provider Discover Financial Services will soon allow its network to track purchases made using payment cards at gun stores—triggering criticism that such activity leads to targeting gun owners.

“Discover Card will begin tracking firearm purchases starting next month. There are more than 50 million Discover cards in use right now. They are coming for your guns little by little,” Congressman Troy E. Nehls (R-Texas) said in a March 3 tweet.
“It’s called a Social Credit System. I have been warning ppl this is coming. This is just the tip of the iceberg,” said radio host Doll Arntzen.

**
Biden’s efforts to restrict firearms and related products via ATF “rules” has been temporarily thwarted again by the courts. In the latest, a District court in Texas nixed the “ghost gun” rule. According to court documents, ATF did not analyze their “Frame or Receiver Rule,” also known as Biden’s Ghost Gun Rule, under the Supreme Court’s NYSRPA v. Bruen decision. This will be going next to the 5th Circuit which has recently ruled against the ATF in similar cases, including Cargill v. Garland.

OBSERVATION – The regime’s efforts to curtail 2d Amendment rights continues as they try to work backdoor methods to ban products/weapons. Being challenged in these cases is the ATFs attempt to essentially re-write federal statutes to enforce their rulemaking. According to the court filings, the plaintiffs argue that only congress can rewrite federal statue to make law, not regulatory agencies like ATF.

POLITICAL FRONT –

CPAC fallout continues as republicans/conservatives try to position themselves for 2024.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

The impending capture of Bakhmut has given Wagner forces something to boast about – even with the decimation of its forces. Observers note that Wagner pushed into the meat grinder where regular Russian forces were reluctant.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

RUMINT-
Vladimir Putin is considering ending the offensive on March 5. This information was shared with its readers by the Telegram channel “general SVR”. According to the resource, the president of the Russian Federation plans to undergo another course of therapy at the beginning of the month, and therefore for some time he will lose the opportunity to fully manage the so-called “special operation”.
In this regard, the politician consults with the military about the possibility of stopping the assault on Ukrainian positions and switching to defense.
“The president has not made a decision and so far everything is under discussion,” writes general SVR.

NOTE – Given that today is the 6th – we have no word if he has made that decision. However, soil conditions in Ukraine are rapidly deteriorating making continuation of any offensive very difficult.
**
RUMINT that Russia may be holding off procuring Iranian missiles based on a threat that to do so would cause the US to release ATACMS missiles in response.

Logistics –
Growing evidence that Russia is having rely on 50 year old T-62 tanks brought out of mothball and upgraded with slightly more modern sights as well as equally old BTR-50 APC. The decimated 1st GTA is noted as being rebuilt with T62s and BTR50s.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is increasingly relying on attacks by dismounted infantry (without armor) with small arms and sapper shovels as a means of close combat. Artillery support for such infantry groups was also significantly reduced due to the increasing shortage of ammunition, reports the UK Ministry of Defense.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Bahkmut pocket is closing and Ukraine is staging a defensive retreat. Muddy conditions are hampering the withdrawal, combined with Russian artillery control/overwatch of the few egress routes. Ukrainian reinforcements have been able to stabilize the northern and southern flanks of the pocket.

Russian forces face river crossings to get into central Bahkmut from the north and east – slowing the advance further. Russia continues to pour resources into the push, but Ukraine continues to extract heavy casualities.

The bloody gains made by Russia at Bahkmut has given the Russian nationalists a lot to crow about over the weekend, propaganda victory that has not been seen in nearly one years worth of fighting.

OUTLOOK –
Ukraine is in the process of an organized withdrawal from Bakhmut. They may have waited a little too long as mud is increasing their casualties.
Russia will pursue their efforts until they control the rubble of concrete that once was Bahkmut. Their ability to press further west is questionable due to mud conditions and facing fresh Ukrainian troops in the next defensive line.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russia is also considering redeployment of forces from Bahkmut to other fronts, most notably Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar. Russia sees this southern front critical to defend Crimea as well as pushing Ukrainian forces out of range of Crimean targets and supply lines. This is becoming increasingly important as Ukraine has started deployment of longer ranged assets of its own creation.

Israel –

A growing numbers of Israeli reservists are speaking out against judicial overhaul plans, going as far as refusing to report for drills and training. Combined with large protests and a skyrocketing threat from Iran, such threatens Israeli readiness.

The 10 living former Israeli Air Force chiefs, who have all served at various points dating back to 1953, published an open letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday morning, stating that they were “trembling” from the impact of the government’s judicial overhaul on the readiness of the IDF’s pilots. The letter came a day after 37 out of 40 pilots from the 69th Squadron made the announcement that they would strike on Wednesday rather than attend their scheduled training.

OBSERVATION –
Netanyahu needs to diffuse this quickly before readiness is compromised further. In essence mutiny also threatens his position as the Israeli commander in chief.

Iran –

Protests continue across the country following reports suggest that chemical poisonings occurred in over 200 separate schools—primarily girls’ schools. Iranians believe that the govt condoned the attacks in retribution for the earlier protests against the requirement for women to wear head coverings.

OBSERVATION – The Imans are turning a blind eye to these attacks and are paying lip service to ‘investigate’ them. Already tee’d off, the population is reacting and any advances made by the regime to calm earlier protest have been burned away.

Syria -

With the quake now in the rear view mirror, Assad forces are resuming attacks in southern Idlib province.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

A flare up over the weekend where an Armenian police unit was ambushed by an Azeri SOF elements. They withdrew when Russian armor units arrived to intervein in the situation.

Misc of Note –

A common asthma drug is in short supply after one of the last major manufacturers shut down operations. Albuterol is used to treat asthma, along with conditions like Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which surged earlier in the year. The drug is one of the most commonly prescribed in the U.S. and it’s been on the FDA’s shortage list for months.

Akorn Pharmaceuticals, which was one of the major suppliers of albuterol, shut down operations at the end of February as part of Chapter 7 bankruptcy proceedings. The company had previously been found to have manufacturing violations at its Illinois and New Jersey factories. The company stopped shipping albuterol before it shut down, and the drug has been on the FDA’s shortage list for months.

With Akorn shut down, there is onlyone major domestic company that can supply albuterol to hospitals and pharmacies. The U.S. relies heavily on foreign countries, including China and India, for pharmaceutical ingredients and drugs, and the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for domestic supply chains.
Albuterol hasn’t been the only drug affected by supply chain disruptions. The ADHD drug Adderall and anti-viral medication Tamiflu have also been in short supply, leaving patients scrambling for options.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/asthma-drug-albuterol-in-short-supply-after-factory-closures/ar-AA18fGUW

OBSERVATION – Part of a repeating pattern of US based production of key supplies (like infant formula, antibiotics, childrens medicines, etc) and the govt not doing anything about its regulatory constipation to get things fixed.

Black Swans

The record setting snow in the Sierras is still making news and conditions continue to be interesting as more storms sweep across the state, adding more snow. Saw a remarkable photo of a snowblower working Donner pass, with snow piled up so high the blower was barely able to toss the snow over it.

This creates to dangers. As I’ve noted before, such heavy snow at low elevations can create massive floods from rain-on-snow events, should a warm weather system hit.

Second danger later on is the threat of massive wildfires. They were largely absent last year because there was little or no undergrowth/grass due to the drought. They will grow like crazy and by late summer/early fall they will be dried out and ready to burn. Be warned and prepared as this will likely be a similar scenario throughout the west.