Globalism / Great Reset –
Please note that though listed under other categories, many of the things I’ve noted today also can fall squarely under this category as well. The globalist assault to take over the world is being executed on many levels by supporting govts in various countries – and they are the ones to watch so see just how despotic WEF rule will be if they get their way.
Wuhan virus –
Former CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield testifies that he was excluded and kept out of the loop by Fauci and the rest of the establishment because he had a different opinion about the COVID-19 origins, which he believes came from a lab.
“…they wanted a single narrative and that I obviously had a different point of view.”
OBSERVATION – This conspiracy by Fauci has clearly left the conspiracy theory wing and entered reality. Fauci et al are responsible for the deaths of millions.
Listened to a portion of his testimony – one where he simply stated the ‘mutations’ made to the wuhan virus were specifically aligned to infect humans and that key parts of the virus had human designed portions that should have reflected bat DNA IF the virus had naturally mutated.
Economy –
Biden to announce his budget plans today as the faceoff on the debt ceiling gets into high gear.
**
Financial analysts are noting that the Money Supply is officially contracting.
In their analysis they say a contraction to the degree being observed here has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years. Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed.
OBSERVATION – Economic analysts have been pointing out a lot of various pieces of evidence to a severe recession. This is the latest.
Invasion of Illegals –
District Judge T. Kent Wetherell II in Florida has nullified the Biden administration’s use of parole to release migrants into the United States, declaring the practice unlawful and accusing the administration of turning the U.S.-Mexico border into a “meaningless line in the sand.”
Wednesday’s ruling came out as a response to a lawsuit from the Sunshine State, which alleged that the Biden administration’s policy of mass releasing tens of thousands of migrants who illegally cross the border, rather than detaining them, violated U.S. immigration law.
Judge Wetherell said that federal immigration authorities lack the authority to implement these alternatives on a prevalent basis under the existing laws in place and gave the administration just seven days to file an appeal before his decision ensues.
OBSERVATION – This is addressing biden’s catch and release policy where the illegals are given a court date to show up at and then released on their own recognizance. Biden et al will continue the program while dragging its feet through the appeal process.
Biden / Harris watch –
National Archives retrieved nine boxes of Biden classified documents from boston office.
Biden was also filmed entering the a room clutching onto Schumer’s arm to maintain balance.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Washington State Attorney General Bob Ferguson is aggressively pushing legislation that would establish a 13-member panel to determine what constitutes disinformation and misinformation rising to the level of “domestic violence extremism,” according to The Center Square. The panel would also collect data on incidents of their pickings of domestic violent extremism and classify noncriminal activities or speech as such.
Free speech advocates blasted the bill for targeting conservatives and criminalizing anyone who expresses an opinion that runs counter to a regime-approved narrative.
“This commission is specifically designed to target conservatives and quash any government opposition, which is why the legislation purposefully ignores Antifa and Black Lives Matter extremists. Indeed, it expressly supports those tactics,” wrote Seattle KTTH talk-show host Jason Rantz, who called it “the most dangerous bill in legislative history.”
OBSERVATION – Legislation was noted in an earlier post. This law would be extremely dangerous and the state govt makes no effort to hide the fact that conservative voices are the ones being targeted.
**
(CNSNews.com) - Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, who was appointed to her job by President Joe Biden, submitted to the Senate Intelligence Committee today the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, which warned about the impact of populist parties “that oppose immigration and deeper EU integration.”
The threat assessment included a subsection carrying the headline: “Europe. The entirety of this three-paragraph subsection focused on “populist parties.”
OBSERVATION – Govt targeting conservatives and conservative thoughts that oppose there regime’s narrative. While specifically singling out Europe – you can bet your bottom bitcoin the same arrow is pointing to the US.
More drivel from Haines – in her presentation to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that said that “drivers for disease emergence,” including “mass food production,” are “on the rise.
“Drivers for disease emergence persist and are on the rise, including climate change, deforestation, human encroachment into previously undisturbed habitats, wildlife harvesting and trade, mass food production, and lack of international consensus on biosafety norms,” says the assessment.
“These drivers are compounded by factors that facilitate global spread, such as international trade and travel, inadequate global disease surveillance and control, distrust of public health authorities, health disinformation, and health system strain brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic,” the assessment continued.
“Emerging agricultural and livestock diseases and antimicrobial resistance—although not necessarily involving pathogens of pandemic concern—threaten to cause immense economic damage and disruption food supplies if they spread globally or into new regions,” said the intelligence community assessment.
OBSERVATION – This addendum could also be posted under WEF/GGR in that globalist assault on the food chain is a growing tactic they are using against the people. Here in the US, this is a direct threat towards the agriculture in predominantly red areas of the country – as a justification for more govt intervention into food production (mostly to limit it).
Creation of food shortages points to the old adage - he who controls the food, controls the population. One of the biggest sources of civil unrest today results from food shortages.
**
Overnight, Antifa conducted a direct action protest outside the Dekalb County jail in Atlanta where 22 out of the 23 Antifa domestic terror suspects are being held. An unknown person inside the jail appeared to be trying to set the building on fire while the crowd cheers. The fire burned out, however.
OBSERVATION – So the terrorists want to burn themselves up? Not an outrageous question for if the fire was successful in injuring/killing any of the terrorists (or blacks currently jailed there as well) it could have served as catalyst for nation wide riots.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
First it was the Army, now the Air Force will likely miss this fiscal year’s recruiting targets for active-duty and reserve forces, as well as the Air National Guard, a top official recently said as military branches across the board struggle to enlist.
OBSERVATION – Recruits to the armed forces traditionally come from red areas of the country, and IMHO there is a significant realization that the chain of command doesn’t have their six but are willing stab them in back for the sake of Wokeness.
Cyber Warfare –
A top House official said that a “significant data breach” at the health insurance marketplace for Washington, D.C., on Tuesday potentially exposed personal identifiable information of hundreds of lawmakers and staff.
In a letter obtained by NBC News, Chief Administrative Officer Catherine L. Szpindor said Wednesday that the U.S. Capitol Police and the FBI had alerted her to a data breach at DC Health Link, the Affordable Care Act online marketplace that administers health care plans for members of Congress and certain Capitol Hill staff.
“Currently, I do not know the size and scope of the breach, but have been informed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) that account information and [personally identifiable information] of hundreds of Member and House staff were stolen,” Szpindor said. “I expect to have access to the list of impacted enrollees later today and will notify you directly if your information was compromised.”
The notice said that the “data included the full names, date of enrollment, relationship (self, spouse, child), and email address, but no other Personally Identifiable Information (PII).”
OBSERVATION - Another day, another govt data breech. Remember, I posted a few days ago the govt claim that all cybersecurity should shift to the govt and away from personal/corporate responsibility. . .
POLITICAL FRONT –
Carlson continues to throw gasoline on the dumpster fire the democrats created with their false depiction of the events of J6. So far he hasn’t buckled to the leftist barrage of criticism and demands for censorship/removal from his job. The MSM continues to do its best to keep sweeping it under the rug, but the interwebs are too uncontrollable now as people are finding out. IIRC, his show where he did the reveal was one of the largest watched segments ever.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fires short-range ballistic missile toward Yellow Sea according to S Korean military spokesman.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Concerns continue over reports that Russian boomer are patrolling off the US east coast.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia launched another large ballistic/cruise/ drone attack on Ukraine targeting primarly the energy grid. 81 launches reported in total consisting of:
28 Kh-101/Kh-555
20 Kalibr
6 Kh-22
6 Kh-47 Kinzhal
2 Kh-31P
6 X-59
13 S-300
8 Shahed-136/131
34 out of 48 Kh-101/555/Kalibr cruise missiles (71%) and 4/8 Shahed-drones (50%) were shot down. Due to countermeasures all 8 Kh-31P/X-59 did not reach their targets. Missiles were apparently launched in waves – with as many as 7 being noted. At least 15 Russian Tu-95MS Strategic Bombers and several cruisers in the Black Sea served as major launch platforms.
A number of these missiles were tracked flying through Moldovian airspace towards targets in western Ukraine near the Polish border.
The Ukrainian Minister of Energy has announced that Russian Missile Strikes on Energy Infrastructure were reported in the Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk and Zhytomyr Regions with 3 Thermoelectrical Power Plants in the Country suffering Severe Damage. Kyiv’s mayor says that due to the Russian missile attack they have cut off the electricity for about 15% of customers.
Intense fighting continues to rage around Bahkmut, but Russia cannot seem to seal the deal on taking the city.
Increased fighting in the Donetsk area, particularly on the northern side.
OUTLOOK –
It took about a month for Russian to pull together the missiles used overnight. People will say “see – see all the reports of them running out of missiles are wrong” Well, Russian has gone from near daily attacks to now the interval is approaching a month. The missiles used tell the story as S300’s and obsolete cold war cruise missiles compose a significant portion of the ones used. Even the Iranian Shahed-136/131 were in short supply – 8 launched.
One other take away is that this strategic missile program is not supporting the tactical offensive. Like everything so far, Russian has displayed an incredible ability to fail to coordinate between branches.
More and more govt intelligence sources are echoing the same conclusion that OSINT observers and analysts have come to- that being Russia is close to petering out in its Bahkmut assault. Increasing being noted is the lack of coordination between the groups conducting the assaults – principally Wagner and regular Russian units.
Ukraine has apparently executed a successful drawback in a defense in depth plan that has Russia trying to figure where to go next. Russia is fixated on the capture of the city, but Ukraine’s pull back behind two rivers protecting it northern and eastern margins of the pocket is going to make further Russian assaults more problematic. Russia has sucked on river crossing operations so far during this war. The current configuration of ‘assault units’ is ill prepared to execute raw river crossings (essentially having to swim or wade through the rivers) having no bridging equipment.
Ukraine reinforcements have also been able to stabilize the southern margin of the pocket to the point that logistics routes have become safer for Ukraine to use.
Ukraine’s economy of force / defense in depth operation in Bahkmut is permitting it to prepare for its own offensive while bleeding out Russian soldiers and equipment. Russian has lost a lot of stuff they will need to fend off that offensive.
Expect continued Russian attacks in the Bakhmut region. My assessment is that it is still likely Ukraine may need to fully pull out, but the action over the course of the past week sees that action starting to switch to being less likely. Russia will continue to be lured into this honeypot and ruin its forces.
Moldova/Transnistria -
See Russian missile overflights from last night noted under Ukraine.
Europe / NATO General –
The Georgian Dream Party has officially withdrawn the “Foreign Agent” Bill which had caused civil unrest and protests across the Georgian Capital of Tbilisi over the last 2 nights.
OBSERVATION - This fight isn’t over by a long shot, but for the Russian supporting ‘dream party’ it was a bridge too far and brought the country to the brink of a civil war. Some think that the Russia supporting govt may now shift to targeted arrests of protest leaders to try to crush further opposition.
Black Swans
Another atmospheric river is scheduled to strike kalifornia starting today but this is one to worry about as it is a “Pineapple Express” he main part won’t arrive until Thursday afternoon and last through Friday. Several feet of snow is expected for areas above 6,000 feet in elevation. Below 5,000 feet, such as the Sierra Nevada foothills, rainfall totals are forecasted to range between 2 to 7 inches.
“Will there be a moderate to strong & warm Atmospheric River storm this weekend in CA? Yes. Will there be flooding from hvy rain & snowmelt? Also yes,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain tweeted.
OBSERVATION - I warned about this kind of storm hitting and creating chaos. The recent storms had very low snow levels and a lot of snow. The rain-on-snow is the most dangerous scenario for flooding. Stay tuned. Flood watches are being issued.
=================================
Globalism / Great Reset –
Word is that BlackRock and Pfizer are lobbying the Biden regime to vaccinate every US chicken against bird flu. Part of their argument is that it is going to jump to humans besides the millions of birds culled to try to get the spread under control. We saw how “successful” Pfizer’s mRNA was for wuhan .
=================================
Wuhan virus –
Kalifornia gov newscum has come down with wuhan again, following a vacation away from the snow emergency that his the state. He is also declining to make a State of the State address, reportedly because he doesn’t play well with teleprompters.
================================
Economy –
Sharp losses in banking stocks led Wall Street's main indexes lower on Thursday, as turmoil at Silicon Valley Bank's parent company triggered investor fears about the stability of the financial sector. The four largest US banks -- JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup -- saw their share prices plunge between 4% and 6%, wiping $52.3 billion from their collective market capitalizations for the day
Shares of SVB Financial, which owns Silicon Valley Bank, plunged more than 60% after the company announced a sale of new shares to cover losses on the sale of government bonds.
'The Silicon Valley raise got everybody nervous about people's capital levels and what deposits are doing. A lot of institutional investors don't feel great about owning certain banks right now,' said R.J. Grant, head of trading at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.
'It just gets people freaked out because Silicon Valley, historically has been a very strong, well-run bank. If they're having issues right now, people are wondering what about other banks that are lesser quality and that don't have the reputation that Silicon Valley Bank has.'
OBSERVATION – More learned folks than I say that the SVB fallout is due to a combination of poor tech startups combined with SVB pouring much of the company's assets and deposits into US Treasuries and other government bonds. Those bonds have gone sour with the rapid rise of the Fed prime rate. But to prevent insolvency, SVB was forced to take emergency action to raise capital. The company was forced to sell those bonds as a significant loss.
Other banks apparently feeling the same pinch, the sudden loss of assets on their books as the country faces more and more the prospect for a recession in the coming months. Expect more of this as the fed continues to push the prime even higher. Some even fear a massive Lehman style bailouts in the future.
**
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has cut its 2023 oil price forecasts. The EIA now predicts Brent crude to average $82.95 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average 77.10 per barrel. As of this writing, Brent and WTI spot prices are $85.75 and $79.33, respectively.
OBSERVATION – these projections suggest a stable economic setting. They are countered by other projections indicating oil going north of $100/barrel. Prices will continue to be sensitive to supply and refinery disruptions. I wish I could be optimistic, but then again this is a govt agency making the predictions.
=================================
CW2/Domestic violence –
Biden’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2024 proposes increasing funding to the FBI, Department of Justice (DOJ), and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) to crack down on guns. The funding, which draws from a $17.8 billion “investment” in the DOJ’s federal law enforcement capacity, will be used to further regulate the firearms industry, create gun trafficking strike forces, enforce background checks and implement the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, according to the budget. The ATF alone will receive $1.9 billion, a $200 million increase from the 2023 budget.
OBSERVATION – We’ve seen these and other alphabet agencies use resources in an effort to bypass federal laws to progressively disarm Americans. This budget adds to the effort.
**
The FBI may have abused the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to spy on the very congressman tasked with overseeing FISA, according to revelations at a congressional hearing Thursday.
Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said at a committee hearing that he has reason to believe that he is the unnamed congressman who, a recently declassified report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) admitted, FBI agents wrongfully conducted a search on.
OBSERVATION – FISA abuse by the FBI continues, and no one is facing consequences. This shouldn’t be happening in a supposedly free society, but the Marxists in the swamp are converting it to the American form of the KGB and act lawlessly to keep in power. This is not going unnoticed by the right and if things get spicy, may be directly addressed.
=================================
POLITICAL FRONT –
According to the Post Millennial, ironically, it was CNN political reporter Alayna Treene who confirmed the findings, saying that Chair of the January 6 Committee Bennie Thompson admitted that "lawmakers were never given that type of access to the footage last Congress…"
Even worse, Thomas has reportedly admitted that “I'm actually not aware of any member of the committee who had access. We had a team of employees who kind of went through the video.”
https://bonginoreport.com/top-stories/nancy-pelosis-committee-refused-to-access-footage-of-january-6th
OBSERVATION – The J6 tribunal apparently is backpedaling on the tens of thousands of hours of video being released – blaming some unnamed ‘staffers’ for editing and presenting the kangaroo court its heavily edited version of the events. The head of the swamp - from both sides of the spectrum – are continuing to explode and are throwing every accusation thinkable to deflect from the clear evidence now coming to the forefront – their report is nothing but a lie.
**
Biden’s budget plan, loaded with a lot of tax increases and few deficit reduction plans has not been received very favorably by congressional republicans. Many of the tax increases are repealing of Trump tax cuts that helped the middle class. The bickering over the budget is guaranteed to spill over into the debt ceiling negotiations.
**
AG Garland said 5 officers died on J6. This means he’s a liar - so every single thing he says in the future, assume it’s a lie.
=================================
China –
Chinese leader Xi Jinping was awarded a third five-year term as president Friday, putting him on track to stay in power for life.
The endorsement of Xi's appointment by the ceremonial National People's Congress was a foregone conclusion for a leader who has sidelined potential rivals and filled the top ranks of the ruling Communist Party with his supporters since taking power in 2012.
The vote for Xi was 2,952 to 0 by the NPC, members of which are appointed by the ruling party.
Xi, 69, had himself named to a third five-year term as party general secretary in October, breaking with a tradition under which Chinese leaders handed over power once a decade. A two-term limit on the figurehead presidency was deleted from the Chinese constitution earlier, prompting suggestions he might stay in power for life.
OBSERVATION - this has already been a given since last year when Xi consolidated power. With this win, his move to direct the country away from the more capitalistic goals back to a party centered controlled economy are expected to move forward with little hinderance by the limping Chinese economy.
=================================
North/South Korea –
North Korean orphanages are growing as starving parents drop off their children in the middle of the night in hopes that the kids, at least, will be able to eat, sources in the country told Radio Free Asia.
North Korea has suffered from chronic food shortages since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The food situation was made worse by the coronavirus pandemic, when North Korea and China closed their border and suspended all trade.
Although rail freight has resumed, the food shortages are still worse than they were pre-pandemic.
OBSERVATION – As an intel officer during the Soviet Union era, NK was supported by the USSR as a counter balance to US threats. They kept the NK bellies full. As I’ve noted in my posts, NK is not the massive conventional military threat it once was because of near starvation of the citizenry that has spilled over into the NK military. An army of starved soldiers may fight only to stop once it hits the grocery stores of SK. This has been made worse by Kim’s diversions of resources towards nuclear deterrence. Perhaps, in his economy, it is cheaper than feeding and upgrading his conventional military.
**
(Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the military to intensify drills for a "real war," state media said on Friday, after overseeing a fire assault drill that it said proved the country's capability to counter an "actual war."
This comes as the United States and South Korea were set to kick off large-scale military exercises known as the Freedom Shield drills next week. North Korea has long bristled at the allies' drills as a rehearsal for invasion.
=================================
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
"Nuclear strike has been conducted, please go to the shelter, take your calcium iodide pills" - red alert in several regions of Russia broadcasted via TV and radio in a suspected cyber attack. NOTE - such cyber attacks could trigger are real nuclear launch. For now Russia wasn’t hitting the button.
=================================
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the mid 40’s – to the 50s with rain/snow over parts of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian military intelligence warns of possible provocation, prepared by Russia, on the border between Belarus and Ukraine
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued fighting at Bahkmut. Russian forces however, seem to be trying to exploit the northern envelopment of the town by pressing northwest instead along the M-03 highway that leads to Sloviansk. If successful, it could create a more dangerous pocket to Ukraine by isolating Siversk.
Russian forces appear to be working to bypass the Ukraine stronghold of Adiivka, north of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK –
Warmer temperatures have anchored the Ukrainian spring mud season. Russia will continue to press on with its assault to capture Bahkmut. This assault has Russia using some of its better trained forces – forces that are being bleed to death from the fighting.
There are indicators that Russian is beginning to simply bypass similar urban Ukrainian strong points and are pushing along major highway systems to gain as much territory as possible. This is similar to what they did a year ago and the results will likely be the same – with Ukraine attacking their logistical support and starving the units of fuel, ammo and food so that when the time comes for its offensive, those elements will quickly collapse as last spring.
However, there is a general consensus that Russia will be unable to exploit these bypasses, having expended to much to take defended positions like Bahkmut as well as mud season kicking in big time. I suspect that Ukraine is not worried about these advances and using as I’ve said before - economy of force operations – to limit the advances while allowing maximum preparation for the spring/summer offensives.
Russia seems to have frittered away much of the forces mobilized last year and is finding itself closer to being back to square one. They are using Belarus military trainers and training areas for some of its mobilized forces, but the training sessions are generally noted to be very short before troops are rotated out and sent to the front lines.
In the race where he who gets there with the mostest is generally the winner, Russia has lost its lead and appears to be fading fast.
Final note – Ukraine appears to have operational a long range (exceeds HIMARS) and accurate MLRS rocket as well as US JDAMS guided bombs. These newer weapons systems are just getting to cut their teeth and when fully exploited with cause Russian planners a great deal of headaches as the Russian rear areas will be hit harder.
=================================
Moldova/Transnistria -
Authorities in Transnistria, breakaway region of Moldova, claim they've foiled assassination attempt against local leader. Police detained former resident of Tiraspol, claimed he was recruited and trained by SBU in Odesa. In a plot Land Rover with 8 kgs of RDX explosives and shrapnel had to be detonated in central Tiraspol. Security Service of Ukraine dismissed accusations by Transnistria authorities of an assassination plot as a provocation
Authorities in Transnistria sent a letter to UNSC asking to discuss foiled assassination plot, and asked Ukrainian Embassy to help with investigation.
OBSERVATION – Has the markings of a false flag provocation written all over it.
================================
Iran –
See Saudi Arabia for agreement below.
=================================
Saudi Arabia –
Iranian government and Saudi Arabia came to agreements and China was the mediator between the countries, which decided to renew their diplomatic relations. The Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers will meet to activate the agreement, arrange the exchange of ambassadors, and discuss ways to strengthen relations.
OBSERVATION – This is relatively shocking, given the Sunni/Shia conflict that dominates the SA/Iran divide. Such an agreement IMHO must be viewed in the historic context of classical Muslim deception of an enemy. One or both parties are trying to deceive the other and a resumption of diplomatic ‘relations’ may be one way to do so.
This agreement may also complicate Israeli/SA negotiations at some degree of diplomatic and military agreement.
=================================
Turkey -
Over a month after the February 6 earthquake the UN says parts of central and southern Turkey continue to face a humanitarian crisis. Now with national elections moving forward, things for Erdogan are not looking good. All Turkish media report the February 6 quake as the worst natural disaster in the history of modern Turkey. There are political consequences. Erdogan is facing intense criticism for his slow response to the massively destructive February.
Since the quake Erdogan’s standing in polls has dropped. Most of the opposition parties have backed a single candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Subsequent national polls showed that Kilicdaroglu would receive 56.8 percent of the votes compared to 43.2 percent for Erdogan.
OBSERVATION – The election could be tumultuous to say the least. Erdogan has played the middle eastern strong man and his domestic political tactics have been equally brutal. The question is how will he be able to turn the earthquake generated chaos into a victory?
=================================
Mexico -
A secretive faction of Mexico’s notorious Gulf Cartel apologized and turned in five members who they say are responsible for the broad-daylight kidnapping that killed two Americans last week.
The cartel’s Scorpions group said it “decided to turn over those who were directly involved and responsible in the events” related to the March 3 abduction of four Americans in the border city of Matamoros, according to a letter leaked to the Associated Press by a Tamaulipas state law enforcement source.
The letter also claimed the five members “acted under their own decision-making and lack of discipline” when they attacked victims Latavia “Tay” McGee, Shaeed Woodard, Zindell Brown and Eric James Williams.
OBSERVATION – interesting development. The abductions and murder must have placed the kinpins in a very uncomfortable position. In many instances, the cartels are also the ‘law’ and acts like this reduce tourist revenue – revenue they skim off of local businesses as protection (a la mobsters). Loss of this revenue impacts their finances and degrades the cartel in the people’s eyes.
=================================
Black Swans
After a year and half of non-stop La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”. Forecasters are noting that by late summer/early fall El Nino conditions will dominate. Just what the impacts will be are uncertain because the forecasters are still trying to unpack the dumpster fire of the rare multi-year La Nina event.
OBSERVATION - Changing weather - changing agriculture forecasts and other impacts. Need to pay attention to it.