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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


Globalism / Great Reset –

WEF/GGR globalists continue to lift the curtain little by little to expose their plans for the world. In a paper titled ‘Rationing And Climate Change Mitigation’ the authors assert that a rapid reduction of global emissions is needed and that rationing similar to standards enforced during two world wars, and specifically those measures used during WWII, should be enforced again by governments. Only, this time rationing would not be in the name of supporting a war effort but in the name of fighting the phantom of climate catastrophe.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21550085.2023.2166342?src=

OBSERVATION - Spreading the misery around, except that the elites will exempt themselves from the ‘rationing’. The article was written in 2020 and recently published. Also view in the context of the infamous WEF mantra of “you will own nothing and be happy”


Wuhan virus –


Economy –

U.S. crude oil inventories have been building and are 9% above the five-year average. Refineries are running at 85%, and distillate inventories are 10% below the five-year average. (FO)

OBSERVATION - Good news for now, but any bumps in the systems can wipe it away fast as we’ve seen. This build up doesn’t address the severe drawdown of the strategic reserve.

**
A deeper snowpack in Montana and increased precipitation in the northern parts of the U.S. are expected to benefit Mississippi River water levels, which were low enough to interfere with shipping in 2022. (FO)

OBSERVATION – I haven’t seen the snowpack numbers here yet. Key is filling up control reservoirs like Ft Peck to provide sustained flow during the last summer. I’ve had snow in my yard since last October – unusual – and my Christmas reindeer are still iced in and unable to be extracted from my front yard.


Biden / Harris watch –

Biden reacted to a mother who spoke out about her two sons being killed by fentanyl poisoning by saying that happened “during the last administration” — with a chuckle.

OBSERVATION – A totally classless lunatic.


CW2/Domestic violence –

President Biden said in a speech on Wednesday at the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference in Baltimore, that he’s going to ban assault weapons and high capacity magazines “come hell or high water.”

“I know it may make some of you uncomfortable, but that little state above me, Delaware is one of them, has the highest rate, one of the highest rates of gun ownership. But guess what? We’re going to ban assault weapons again come hell or high water and high capacity magazines. When we did it last time to reduce mass deaths,” Biden said.

He also announced increased efforts to push “red flag” laws with new funding.

OBSERVATION - One of the major fracture zones of the impending CW2 is the issue of gun control. Biden doesn’t have the votes to get a new ban passed through congress, so he evidently will continue to go around congress with ATF regulations and these ‘red flag’ laws. On the outside, these laws make some sense – interdicting someone who is dangerously unstable. However, these laws commonly have no recourse for the accused, leaving the them unable to clear their names and get their guns (and rights) back. Ripe for abuse and so far those areas where they’ve been started, abuse is common.

**
In a heated exchange with AG Merrick Garland at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) directly challenged Garland’s corrupt and politicized “Justice” Department, and zeroed in on the once-respected agency’s targeting of traditionalist Roman Catholics. While Garland maintained, in the teeth of the available evidence, that the department is not actually targeting Catholics, he claimed not to know how many spies and informants the feds have in those hotbeds of terrorism, traditional Catholic parishes. In other words, he didn’t say they didn’t have any such spies and informants.

OBSERVATION- Garland face anger from the republican senators like no anger I’ve seen. Take the time listen to Hawley and Cruz literally rake Garland over the coals over fundamentally basic rights. The two tiered justice system expanded under Garland’s watch was fully exposed and his leadership of the DoJ as the AG decimated to him being just a figure head with every one else making the decisions, even against established laws and procedures HE laid out. The two tier law enforcement only makes the red/blue fracture worse – as it is suppose to be by biden et al. Create a situation so messed up that they burn it down to rule over the ashes.


Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Mark Muffley, 40, faces charges of possession of an explosive at an airport and possessing/attempting to place an explosive on an aircraft. The explosive was concealed in a checked piece of luggage and contained multiple fuses - it triggered an alarm before being loaded onto the plane. Muffley was paged over the airport’s public system, left the airport, but was arrested at his home in Lansford later that same day. Muffley faces charges of possession of an explosive at an airport and possessing/attempting to place an explosive on an aircraft.

OBSERVATION – Initial reports indicates a modified firework of some sort. No specified motive at present, but his departure from the airport following checking in of luggage is highly suspicious to say the least.
Haven’t seen any bio of the alledged bomber yet either. However, from the silence of the media outlets, I’m inclined to suspect that he has leftist ties – possibly even antifa-ish – and doesn’t match the desired leftist narrative about white, conservative domestic threats.

If anyone gets more info, please post to the thread.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
Ramzan Kadyrov, Russian politician who currently serves as the Head of the Chechen Republic, has reportedly fallen very ill. A well-known nephrologist was reportedly flown out of the UAE, as he doesn’t trust Russian doctors. Some report that he was poisoned, others say he has kidney failure. Though an ally of putin’s invasion of Ukraine, he has been seen supporting Wagner’s fight against the MoD. He has few friends in Chechnya and has been targeted for assassination in the past.

Kerch Bridge update –
Full reopening of the road bridge occured on 23 February 2023. Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following attack on the bridge last October. The rail line is the life line of the Russian military effort in southern Ukraine and the repairs are being rushed to reopen the rail line by July 2023.

Economic Impact –
Reuters reports that Russia’s oil revenues for January fell by 40%, $18.5 billion against $30 billion in January 2022.


Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting remains fierce around Bahkmut as Russia increasingly pressures supply routes into the city. It does appear that the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements have stabilized the situation for Ukraine.

Activity in the Donetsk area, particularly around Avdiyivka to the north is being observed.

Russian has been conducting significant radar jamming operations in hopes of blinding Ukrainian ADA systems to both missile/drone attacks as well as interdicting fighter aircraft.

Crimean front ———
Explosions/air defense sounds reported near Bakhchisaray, Crimea. Located about 230km from the front line. Suspected attack on an ammo supply dump. Note, these distances exceed HIMARS and indicate Ukraine is using some other munition or partisan activity is picking up.

Russian Territory –
Explosion reported in Berezovsky village of Tula region, possible as result of explosive drone hit

**
Strange happenings in in Sushany village of Briansk region. Russian media reported a hostage-taking situation there, according to report 6 people taken. Media blamed a Ukrainian saboteur group calling themselves “Russian volunteer corps” for the incident.

RosGuard (Russian national guard unit) with MLRS GRAD was reportedly deployed in Klimovo district of Briansk region to fight saboteurs.

Kremlin’s spokesperson stated that Putin is receiving reports on situation in Briansk region from FSB’s Bortnkikov, MinDef Shoigu and head of Russian guard Zolotov

“Russian volunteer corps” in a statement announced “ we are not fighting with civilians” and called for arms to fight Putin’s army. “Death to Kremlin’s tyrant”

Authorities of Briansk region have since dismiss all reports about “dozens of saboteurs”, “explosions at infrastructure”, “dozens of hostages” as “Ukrainian disinformation campaign

OUTLOOK –
Thawing is getting worse across Ukraine and that is going to bog Russia’s offensive down significantly. Similarly Ukraine will have to wait as well. This will have impact on the Russia assault on Bahkmut – they will be increasingly without tank/armor support and any such support coming into the battle zone will be via roads – death traps perfected by Ukrainian artillery.

The Ukrainian reinforcements appear to have stabilized the action, likely deployed to get there before LOCs into the city bog down from mud as well as Russian artillery/atgm overwatch. Russia is losing the offensive race and by spring Ukraine will be geared up with many upgraded units and trained personnel. Russia OTOH is frittering away the mobilized personnel and scrounged up armor to gain very little terrain – and unless a second mobilization is executed soon, they will not have the numbers necessary to effect parry the Ukraine offensive this spring.

OSINT followers and analysts continue to monitor Russian naval and strategic bomber activity for the next barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles. Even with the ever growing longer period between attacks, the Russians appear to be over due. Could be that they are evaluating the effectiveness of their radar jamming efforts and trying to identify weaknesses to exploit.

The activity around Sushany village of Briansk region looks to be an effort to either misinform (disinformation campaign) or cause rear area chaos. Russian defensive measures in areas adjacent to Ukraine are soft because the personnel and effort is being directed towards the Donbas campaign. Those left for guard duty are likely to be the bottom of the barrel personnel and units unfit for the fight. Again, like the recent drone attacks, Russian planners are being forced to scramble to address unconventional warfare in Russia in order to prevent negative PR on the progress of the war.


Moldova/Transnistria -

Tensions remain high.



142 posted on 03/02/2023 9:13:21 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 139 | View Replies ]


To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


Wuhan virus –

The United States Senate has successfully passed legislation to declassify the origins of COVID-19.

OBSERVATION – Even the democrats are seeing that this is a potential hit to them in the 2024 elections and read from the tea leaves that they better be out front on it. Of course the swamp will do everything to keep information on the origins obfuscated and under wraps for a long as possible.

**
In related- Newly released emails reveal that in January 2020, Dr. Anthony Fauci possessed crucial information regarding the origins of COVID-19. However, during that critical period when the nation was just beginning to comprehend the virus, Dr. Fauci opted not to disclose the information to the American people. Rather, he worked to keep it hidden, The Federalist reported this week.

https://thefederalist.com/2021/07/14/dr-faucis-emails-tell-the-story-of-panic-lies-and-a-possible-cover-up/

OBSERVATION – By this stage, Fauci should be behind bars. He lied under oath to congress, he profited from the plandemic and he skates off scott free.

**
Defense officials, speaking to the House Armed Services personnel subcommittee earlier this week, admitted they were still considering disciplinary action against troops who refused an order to get the COVID vaccine.

Which, with the knowledge we have today regarding the poor efficacy of the vaccine in preventing the spread of COVID, and the fact that the vaccine mandate has been rescinded with the benefit of hindsight, is astounding.

Gilbert Cisneros Jr., the undersecretary of defense for personnel, told the panel that servicemembers who refused the vaccine and did not apply for an exemption were still being reviewed.

“In order to maintain good order and discipline, it’s very important that our service members go and follow orders when they are lawful,” Cisneros said, adding that each case was being evaluated.

OBSERVATION - Starting on the basis that the DoD’s directives were illegal to begin with. They were NOT authorized to used the emergency use versions of the jab – only the official approved version – which has never come into existance. Secondly, DoD violated the law in blanket rejections of religious exemption requests.
The purpose is loud and clear – demoralize the military and reduce its effectiveness as a fighting force.


Economy –

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped back over 7% on Thursday, rising to 7.1%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Growing fears that inflation is not cooling off are pushing bond yields higher. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html

OBSERVATION – Housing and mortgage provide one view into the state of the economy, and it seems to be still on life support. The housing industry influences so much of the economy that when it suffers, the rest suffer as well.

**
Related - U.S. home prices could tumble as much as 20% as the highest mortgage rates in two decades threaten to trigger a “deep global housing slide,” according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The economists — Lauren Black and Enrique Martínez-García — pointed to signs of trouble detected in the U.S. and German housing markets that threaten to “pose a vulnerability to the global outlook because of the size of those nations’ economies and significant cross-border financial spillovers.”

Some of that peril, they said, stems from an affordability crisis. Signs of diminished affordability in the U.S. have usually preceded global deterioration.
“The possibility of a domino effect, where investors pull out of international housing seeking safety and liquidity elsewhere, also raises concerns of spillovers beyond Germany or the U.S. to the global economy,” they added.
For the U.S. housing market to return in line with its fundamentals, the researchers estimated that it would need to experience a 19.5% decline. Higher mortgage rates threaten to make the price correction even more dramatic.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-could-plunge-risk-deep-housing-slide-fed-economist-warns

OBSERVATION – Lower house prices vs high interest rates - not a good mix for recovery , let along economic improvments.


CW2/Domestic violence –

Walmart confirmed this week that it is closing all remaining stores in Portland.
Now this is being posted here instead of Economy because the closures are directly linked to the uncontrolled rise in crime following the BLM/Antifa riots of the 2020s and Antifa/BLM being the dominant political force the progressive city/state leadership jump to. The next set or riots- not if but when – will see BLM/Antifa push further out from the city centers even quicker as stores worth looting will be gone and the ‘safer’ more prosperous suburbs become more enticing. Whether or not these suburbs stand up and forcefully push back against these looters will need to be seen. BLM/Antifa learned that they can’t go too far out of town because they were strongly pushed back by locals ready for things to get spicy.

**
Garland says the DOJ doesn’t prosecute many Antifa attacks on pro-life pregnancy centers bc they happen to be at night.

OBSERVATION- SMH, does he realize what he said and how lame of an excuse it was? He best presented the case for two tiered justice in this one sentence alone.

**
Rasmussen has a new poll out showing that a whopping 61 percent of all voters, including a stunning 57 percent of Democrats, believe that federal agents played a role in inciting the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021.

In answer to the question “How likely is it that undercover government agents helped provoke the Capitol riot,” 61 percent of likely voters said it was either very likely (39 percent) or somewhat likely (22 percent) that they had done so.

59 percent of men and 63 percent of women believed that federal agents had “helped provoke the Capitol riot.” This major majority of voters who believe the Capitol riot was not simply naturally occurring breaks down among political party affiliation as well, with 57 percent of Democrats saying it is either very likely (34 percent) or somewhat likely (23 percent) while for Republicans the numbers are 51 percent saying very likely, and 19 percent saying somewhat likely.

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-61-of-all-voters-including-57-of-democrats-believe-it-is-likely-that-feds-helped-provoke-jan-6-riot?utm_campaign=64487

OBSERVATION – Remarkably high democrat response. I expect that if (now there is concerns that the speaker wont release the videos as promised) the unedited videos from the day are released, this number would go higher.
Critical to note – just about every major event over the past several years has had significant federal agent involvement – either as informers or actual agent provocateurs.

**
About 65 Wisconsin families are currently being held hostage by the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa. The tribe has erected illegal barricades on the only roads that lead to their homes, preventing residents from entering and leaving. The only way out of the reservation is over frozen lakes that are quickly melting with the coming spring.

The yellow barricades and chained-together concrete blocks were set up 31 days ago over a bitter land dispute among two non-tribal title companies, the town of Lac du Flambeau, and the tribe. Meanwhile, racial tensions are rising, and many fear violence in a standoff that’s also shining a long-needed spotlight on the dysfunctional arrangement between Indian tribes and the U.S. federal government.

To open the roads for only 15 years, Tribal President John Johnson is demanding $20 million. It’s an amount Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany describes as tantamount to “extortion.” Tiffany also says it’s unlawful since all four roads in question receive federal funding through the Tribal Transportation Program. According to Tiffany, the tribe has received a total of $218 million in federal funds since 2013.

OBSERVATION – Underreported aspect of the CW2 are tribal actions to violate rights of non-indians on reservation properties. In multiple states, tribes are trying to flex their muscles to restrict/limit any actions that cross their ‘lands’. Here in the Redoubt, this has resulted in non-tribal law enforcement pulling back any assistance (because tribal police refused to cooperate), and now the tribes are crying for help to deal with skyrocketing crime and human trafficking related issues. In the Wisconsin case above, there is a potential for violence as violence could happen should the tribes not back down from their demands.

**
Multiple Ohio elementary school kids are facing assault charges after disturbing video caught the group of black students attacking white students — and forcing them to say “Black lives matter,” according to cops.
Footage obtained by WKEF showed a tall student grabbing a much smaller one around the back of the head and marching him across the Springfield playground, with another joining to hold the struggling victim.
Others joined in when he was taken to an area near swings — with one charging in and knocking the helpless youngster to the ground, seemingly throwing a punch.

OBSERVATION – This story gained traction once videos of the assaults were released. This is the result of CRT instruction, BLM radicalism and just out and out poor job raising the kids (likely without a father). I’m not anticipating very much to be done by the school or other authorities and it is ok in their philosophy to attack whites (and Asians for that matter) just because.


Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

We are seeing now why Mark Muffley is not leading news reports on the bomb incident. –

FBI Special Agent Eddie Garcia testified that Muffley confirmed he was aware he had the explosive in his bag along with lithium batteries, butane and a small torch lighter, and he knew they were all prohibited.

Prosecutor Sherri Stephan also said Muffley admitted to using drugs including methamphetamine and that the pipe found in his suitcase had meth residue in it. Stephan said he had several previous run-ins with the law, including having his probation and bail revoked on multiple occasions. Stephan said Muffley had “shown a pattern of not being able to follow the rules of release.”

OBSERVATION - Every indication of your typical druggie democrat supporter FAFO.


Cyber Warfare –

Today, the Biden-Harris Administration released the National Cybersecurity Strategy to secure the full benefits of a safe and secure digital ecosystem for all Americans. In this decisive decade, the United States will reimagine cyberspace as a tool to achieve our goals in a way that reflects our values: economic security and prosperity; respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms; trust in our democracy and democratic institutions; and an equitable and diverse society. To realize this vision, we must make fundamental shifts in how the United States allocates roles, responsibilities, and resources in cyberspace.

1. We must rebalance the responsibility to defend cyberspace by shifting the burden for cybersecurity away from individuals, small businesses, and local governments, and onto the organizations that are most capable and best-positioned to reduce risks for all of us.

2. We must realign incentives to favor long-term investments by striking a careful balance between defending ourselves against urgent threats today and simultaneously strategically planning for and investing in a resilient future.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/02/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-national-cybersecurity-strategy/

OBSERVATION – Deeper look indicates another push for digital identity and de-anonymize internet users who engage in what the Biden administration calls “malinformation.” Hence a hidden shift for more censorship with the potential for govt to go after individuals for the crime of “malinformation”, which we all know by now is a euphemism for being against the regime’s narrative.
This Initiative also places the burden on the govt and away from individuals – increasing govt controls over individual freedom (and stupidity) on the internet.

**
Hackers breached a website that allows people to buy and sell guns, exposing the identities of its users, TechCrunch has learned.
The breach exposed reams of sensitive personal data for more than 550,000 users, including customers’ full names, home addresses, email addresses, plaintext passwords and telephone numbers. Also, the stolen data allegedly makes it possible to link a particular person with the sale or purchase of a specific weapon.

“With this data, you can then take a public listing…and resolve it back to the [data in the stolen database] so you have the name, email and physical address and phone number of [the seller] and presumably, the location of the gun,” Troy Hunt, a cybersecurity expert who runs the popular data breach repository and alerting service Have I BeenPwned, told TechCrunch. (The researcher who found the breach shared the data with Hunt so he can upload it to Have I BeenPwned.)

OBSERVATION – The site hit was GunAuction.com, a site that since 1998 allows people to put guns for auction online. Not only could criminals access the data for their nefarious purposes, the feds likely could have accessed it as well for a covert database of gun owners.


POLITICAL FRONT –

KJP: Joe Biden does not support preventing noncitizens from voting in Washington, D.C.

OBSERVATION – DC is moving to allow noncitizens to vote in elections, the senate democrats last night closed ranks to allow DC to move forward with the plan. Other blue cities have attempted to do the same over the past couple years, but those plans have not held up well in courts.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********
Secretary of State Antony Blinken met briefly with his Russian counterpart on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in India on Thursday, and said afterwards he had urged Moscow to end its “war of aggression” in Ukraine and reverse its decision to suspend participation in the New START arms control treaty.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, speaking to Russian television after Blinken’s comments to the press, said they amounted to “PR and self-promotion.”
“They are well aware that the American people are asking what the Biden administration has done in the field of bilateral relations and the problems that it has created,” she told the Rossiya 1 channel. “Blinken needs to show something to the people, and he has nothing to show except to catch Lavrov along the corridor.”

NUCLEAR THREATS –
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, speaking at the United Nations conference on disarmament, warned that increasing Western support for Ukraine could result in an open conflict between the U.S. and Russia. He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s suspension of the New START nuclear treaty was necessary since Russia could not accept U.S. inspections of its facilities as long as Washington and NATO have openly declared the defeat of the Russian state as their ultimate goal. (FO)

OBSERVATION – continued saber rattling and trying to frame their rejection of START treaty requirement on the basis that the US is actually at war with Russia.


Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces appear to have temporarily scaled back efforts to encircle Bakhmut from both the southwest and northeast and may instead be focusing on pressuring Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the city by concentrating on the northeastern offensive. The decision could be in part because Russia cannot get support vehicles or even armor into position to provide support due to the deteriorating soil conditions. Combat continues to be fierce.

Russian Territory –
Strange happenings continue in Sushany village of Briansk region.

3 RosGuard troopers and police sapper wounded as their vehicle hit a landmine near Sushany village of Briansk region

The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a border incursion in Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian officials denied the Kremlin’s accusations and claimed that Russian officials might be facing problems with increasing partisan activity in Russia.

Operative Command “North”(Ukraine) had warned about possible provocation in the area over a week ago. This consisted of unmarked Russian miliary vehicles with ‘soldiers’ wearing Ukrainian style digital camo uniforms. You would have read it first
here

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=123#123

Many observers and analysts are coming to the conclusion that this is a False Flag attempt by Russia. However, they should at least let their response units know where they planted the mines.

**
Loud explosion was reported in Kolomna of Moscow region, audible across the town
Kolomna hosts multiple strategic enterprises, like KB Mashinostroyeniya or KBM, designers of Igla and Strela MANPADS, Tochka U and Iskander missiles. Russia authorities trying to deny that anything happened.

OUTLOOK –
Any potential for a quick Russian victory at Bahkmut are fading as the mud gets worse and Ukainian defenses stiffen from reinforcements. Russia has expended a lot of resources on the fight and still can’t get the mission accomplished. This is not to say the Ukraine will not have to realize a tactical withdrawal in the near future, but now the seasons are changing into its favor with the arrival of mud season. Their defense of Bahkmut has achieved a key objective – given Ukraine an opportunity to mobilize, train, equip and rearm for their offensive operations once the ground dries out again, while at the same time deflating the Russian mobilization and offensive in the east, placing Russian forces in a weaker position to defend against an Ukrainian attack. Russia doesn’t have the time to rebuild forces with the constant bleeding of men and resources in their fruitless attacks.

Videos on social media show the battlefields turning into goo as things thaw out. Vehicular traffic is near a standstill and even movement by foot is bogged down by clays attaching to the boots and creating a monster to try to slog along with – in addition to sinking calf deep in places.

To take with a little skepticism, Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces have concentrated a significant portion of their heavy military equipment in Luhansk Oblast but have been unable to use most of it due to unfavorable weather conditions on the frontlines. Haidai added that Russians are using Terminator armored fighting vehicles and T-90M tanks in the Kreminna direction, which indicates that Russian forces are continuing to prioritize this direction for an advance.

The big question – will Russia motorpool most of the buildup or disperse to keep safe from Ukrainian interdiction?


SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated on March 2 that reports of Serbian authorities secretly transferring multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) ammunition to Ukraine are a matter of “deepest concern.” Serbian defense company Krusik supplied over 3,500 Grad MLRS rockets to Ukraine but claimed that it is not clear that Krusik knew that Ukraine was the final buyer of the rockets.

OBSERVATION – Wonder what happen in the Serbian calculations on their relationship with Russia? Wasn’t but a half year ago or so Serbia was trying to ratchet up tensions with NATO with a confrontation with Moldova. Since then the Serbs have staged an incredible pull back from Russian support. Now going as far as allowing Ukraine to get munitions for use against Russia.

Russian authorities appear to be concerned over a growing loss of leverage in Serbia, which Russia has worked to integrate into the Russian sphere of influence for many years.

I also think that Serbia is realizing that for economic growth, they need to hitch their wagon to the EU, who’s membership they’ve been trying to cultivate. Russia’s economy is likely to be failing fast as the war progresses - and that will hurt Serbia in the long run.


Israel –

In an unannounced visit, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley and other U.S. Defense Officials will reportedly arrive in Israel later today in order to conduct High-Level Meetings with Israeli Military and Intelligence Officials on the threat that Iran possesses to the region.

OBSERVATION - One of two things. Milley got word that Israel was about to get into ‘go’ mode for a more direct Iranian strike and want to stall, OR he is there to help coordinate support. Given the anti-Israeli policies of the biden regime the first is more likely than the later.


Iran –

Iranians chanted “death to the child-killing government” after eight schools reported poisonings in one day.

Reports of Iranian schoolgirls being poisoned at school continue to stream in from across Iran, with over 1,000 students in more than 50 schools impacted so far, according to opposition reports this week.
The poisonings were first reported in late November, with the pace of reports rising in recent weeks. On Wednesday, at least eight schools throughout Iran reported poisoning incidents in one day, according to opposition media.

According to the 1500tasvir account, which covers anti-government protests in Iran, some students have seen plainclothes security agents outside the schools right before the poisonings. Some reported eyewitness accounts have claimed that a small explosion was heard at some of the schools followed by a strong smell and then the symptoms of poisoning began.

OBSERVATION – There is evidence that suggests that these gas attacks are a response to the national protests that occurred several months ago over the death of a woman, beaten to death by “morality police’ for not wearing a head covering. Reports also indicate that schools with predominantly girls attending are the main target. This looks like it could trigger a new round of national protests.


Misc of Note –

A top union leader penned a letter to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg about a number of rail workers at the Norfolk Southern derailment site in East Palestine, Ohio, who have become sick, likely from the toxic chemical spill. CNBC obtained the letter on Wednesday.

Jonathan Long, a union representative for the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, titled the letter “Norfolk Southern Is Dangerous to America” and said about 40 workers were ordered by the railway to clean up the wreckage.
Long said workers weren’t given proper personal protection equipment to clean up the toxic wreckage. He said many workers weren’t supplied respirators, protective clothing, or eye protection.

As a result of the chemical exposure, many rail workers “reported that they continue to experience migraines and nausea, days after the derailment, and they all suspect that they were willingly exposed to these chemicals at the direction of [Norfolk Southern].”

OBSERVATION – SMH, this is a hazwaste cleanup operation and the railroad (and any contracted for the work), must have specific PPE to do it. Unbelieveable that the EPA and Ohio state environmental regulators haven’t put their foot down. Having been involved in various degrees on environmental clean-up this is just mind boggling.

**
Massive Sierra snowfall can have mixed blessings. All dependent on the weather. Still a lot of weather season left and the huge amounts of low snow make a scenario ripe for a Pineapple Express rain on snow event that could overwhelm the flood control system of Kalifornia. Such is a higher probability to the ‘soft’ spring and gentle warming. Kalifornia is a land of extremes and we are seeing it bigly.



145 posted on 03/03/2023 8:26:20 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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