Posted on 01/01/2022 3:01:14 PM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.
I’ve been warning of a convergence of factors targeting late fall, around the midterms. So far the bullet has been dodged – in a way and not quite as I was concerned, but to summarize –
1. Red wave – wimpered, giving democrats a ‘win’ on the national level.
2. G20/COP27 documented the globalist goals for a global digital ‘passport’; biometric secured digital currency and global warming agendas/reparations.
3. Economy is still on the sharp edge of disaster
4. Biden et al post midterms is doubling and tripling down on his policies.
5. Fed interest rates hammering the housing/mortgage markets
6. Fuel situation is in a serious state regionally.
7. Illegal immigration gets even worse.
Still pending is the potential rail road strike; more impacts from the Fed rate increases; resumption of conflict in the Balkans; armed conflict against iran (both US and Israel) and internal US political unrest as DoJ weaponized against Trump/conservatives and the republicans ramp up for going after biden graft and corruption.
These factors are all in play and IMHO still very much going into the red zone along with new ones. Serious watch over the next few months.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has been selling dollars in order to try and prop up their bond markets. And realize this. They are not selling USDs as part of some well-calculated plan because they want to. They are selling USDs because they HAVE to.
And it’s not working.
PauloMacro on Twitter referenced it like this:
“They used 7% of reserves to only keep the Yen from depreciating another 2.5% since they last intervened 4 weeks ago. If the same math holds, the BOJ will blow through the other 93% while the Yen depreciates another 33%, which is roughly what the Yen has depreciated since last December.”
“Said differently, the BOJ will have to blow through all its reserves just to keep the Yen at the same depreciation rate it has incurred over the last 12 months if the math on the last 2 interventions are any guide.””
OBSERVATION - ALL nations are facing this same problem. Central banks held rates far too low for far too long. The real issue now is that the entire system has become dependent on central banks to continue doing this and without it they could trigger a global economic disaster.
Some analysts are looking at Europe and warning of significant food shortages and shock in the near and long term. Having lost most of its imported fertilizer from Russia and Belarus, it finds itself incapable of its own production filling the gap given the shortage of and high price of natural gas. Add to the deliberate assault on agriculture by the Netherlands and Germany (against livestock industry) and they find themselves increasingly dependent on external sources of food. Those sources are in turn suffering similar fertilizer and ‘global warming’ issues too, with some countries restricting exports in order to insure its country is able to be fed first.
Fighting another move by the biden regime to kill the petrochemical industry, twelve attorneys general have submitted comments to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan expressing concerns about a new proposed rule they argue will increase energy costs and risk Americans’ safety.
At issue is the EPA’s proposed rule, “Accidental Release Prevention Requirements: Risk Management Programs under Clean Air Act; Safer Communities by Chemical Accident Prevention.” (87 Fed. Reg. 53,556), which Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton argues is another attempt by the Biden administration to revive an Obama-era “environmental justice” regulation. If implemented, it would far exceed the statutory authority of the EPA, the attorneys general argue, which was curtailed by the Supreme Court earlier this year.
The rule would require a range of American facilities and industries to implement costly new processes to minimize “climate change risks,” which the EPA hasn’t proved will reduce such risks, they argue. Those impacted by the regulations would include petroleum refineries, chemical manufacturers, water and wastewater treatment systems, chemical and petroleum wholesalers and terminals, food manufacturers, packing plants, cold storage facilities, agricultural chemical distributors, midstream gas plants, among others.
OBSERVATION - Biden, like 0bama before him, continues to use regulatory backdoors to impose its anti-petrochemical / anti-business agenda on the country. History indicates that this will end up tied up in courts for years while the regime will enforce it until an injunction is issued (then to continue to violate the injunction through minor modifications that change the initial regulation).
Eugenicists (like Bill Gates) see growth in Europe with increasing work to abort any child with any genetic shortcomings. In some European nations, there are very few with Downs Syndrome to be found – most being aborted upon detection. That effort is spreading to those who make it out of the womb thru euthanasia.
OBSERVATION – remember- GGR recently came out and called for a 50% reduction in the planet’s population by the year 2050 – numbers wise that is some 4 BILLION PEOPLE. mRNA reactions, abortion, euthanasia and yes, even wars and induced famine are the currently exposed tools, yet even those tools pale at the desired goal.
IIRC, when I was a kid the planet had 4 BILLION. The now destroyed Georgia Guidestones called for a 500 million population. The death and destruction prophesied in the Book of Revelation doesn’t seem to far off now.
Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor at the Bank of England (BoE), said the U.K. may need a digital British pound as he discussed whether the collapse of crypto exchange FTX would influence the country’s decision to issue a government-controlled digital currency.
Although he initially thought there was no connection between the FTX debacle and the central bank’s work on a central bank digital currency, Cunliffe said on Monday that he understands the concerns.
“Over the past few days, I have had a few comments both to the effect that the collapse of FTX shows that we need to get on and issue a digitally native pound – and to the effect that FTX shows that we do not need do so,”
OBSERVATION – The GGR elements moving forward to exploit the FTX debacle to push digital currency.
EPA has proposed a new estimate for the social cost of carbon emissions, nearly quadrupling the $51 a ton to $191 a ton. It has already drawn legal challenges from a host of Republican-led states. It will correspond to a $ 2-a-gallon gas tax. The metric puts a price tag on the alleged damages created by each metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions. Agencies can then use it as part of their analyses of the costs and benefits of more stringent climate regulation on sources ranging from power plants and automobiles to the oil and gas sector.
The Biden administration has used the Interagency Working Group’s interim value of $51 per metric ton of CO2. But earlier this month, EPA quietly proposed increasing that number to $190.
The administration’s use of the IWG’s interim social cost of greenhouse gases has been challenged in parallel lawsuits led by Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, both Republicans.
That document estimates the social cost of carbon as $120, $190, or $340 per metric ton of CO2, using discount rates of 2.5 percent, 2.0 percent, and 1.5 percent, respectively. Such rates reflect the weight given to future impacts of climate change.
OBSERVATION – This is in essence a tax on the economy and will eventually be used in part as a basis to pay reparations to third world countries for global warming impacts.
Economy –
A very slight breather, the national average price of gasoline dropped to $3.662 a gallon, while demand is 5% lower than this time last year. Diesel, however, remains sky high.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member Mike Christie said the push to replace fossil fuel plants with green energy alternatives is creating a crisis for U.S. grids by making energy more expensive, raising concern over the possibility of more frequent blackouts. Christie said he sees renewable energy as critical for cutting emissions, but the speed of transition needs to be realistic to prevent disruptions. (FO)
OBSERVATION – I am convinced, in part, that the great push to replace fossil fuels with “green” solutions is deliberate. You can co-file this under GGR if you want. The goal is to cause the economy to implode and lack of power to run the economy is one way to do it. Europe is the current test bed on a large scale for this disaster - we need to pay attention to the social disruptions that will occur this winter – because we are next.
The two largest freight-rail unions, SMART-TD and the BLET, were the last of the twelve unions covered by national bargaining to release the results of their members’ voting on the tentative labor agreement brokered by the Biden administration two months ago. The BLET narrowly voted to approve the contract, but SMART-TD narrowly voted to reject it. Parties will return to negotiation, with a strike first becoming legal on December 9.
Even one union going on strike would mean the entire national freight-rail network would shut down because the other unions would not cross a picket line. Four of the twelve unions have voted to reject the Biden-brokered deal.
OBSERVATION – Oncoming train wreck still on schedule.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
A federal judge ruled Monday that former White House press secretary Jen Psaki must comply with a subpoena and offer deposition in a lawsuit that claims the Biden administration colluded with Big Tech to censor speech.
Judge Terry Doughty of the Western District of Louisiana on Monday rejected a motion by attorneys for Psaki to block a court-ordered deposition, and said there is public interest in “determining whether First Amendment free speech rights have been suppressed.”
OBSERVATION – biden administration was very sloppy on this whole censorship issue – thinking they could get away with it scott free. It is becoming apparent that it isn’t so.
Cyber Warfare –
Some nasty group has attacked Comic.com and some affiliated websites – denying Americans their daily dose of humor. Personally, one of the few things that gets me going in the morning (besides a cup of coffee).
China –
Admiral Sam Paparo, Head of the US Pacific Fleet, publicly acknowledged the Chinese military has deployed a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile onboard its nuclear submarine fleet. Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has equipped its 6 Jin-class nuclear missile submarines with the JL-3 ICBM that he described as being “built to threaten the United States.” With an estimated range of 10,000km, the JL-3 can hit the continental U.S. from the protection of the South China Sea, granting China a true strategic deterrence triad. (FO)
OBSERVATION – A true threat, IIRC the South China Sea is relatively shallow and it is hard for boomers to hide very well. Still, six boomers deployed over the large area of the SCS is nearly looking for a needle in the haystack – unless we have (and maintain) a close fix on them.
North/South Korea –
The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned the United States Tuesday that it would face “a more fatal security crisis” as Washington pushes for U.N. condemnation of the North’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test.
“The U.S. should be mindful that no matter how desperately it may seek to disarm (North Korea), it can never deprive (North Korea) of its right to self-defense and that the more hell-bent it gets on the anti-(North Korea) acts, it will face a more fatal security crisis,” she said in a statement carried by state media.
OBSERVATION – This is one mean person and should Kim pass away suddenly, she wouldn’t hesitate taking control and starting a war.
Japan –
See GGR above on bond market blowup.
Over the weekend, Japan conducted two test firing events for the U.S.-Japan jointly produced SM-3 Block IIA missile system. Both tests took place in the vicinity of Hawaii on the Kauai U.S. Navy Missile Range Facility. The missile launches were conducted by two Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF) Maya-class destroyers against ballistic missile targets. Maya-class destroyers are the first AEGIS JMSDF destroyers equipped with a ballistic missile defense capability.
OBSERVATION – Japan is trying to quickly close the gap on ballistic missile defenses and procurement of established – almost off the shelf – US AEGIS systems with the SM-3 Block IIA missiles – is a common sense move. Such systems can not only be used to protect the fleet, but parts of Japan proper.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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The Pentagon believes that Russia is trying to secure aerial dominance through missile strikes that drain Ukraine’s air defense capabilities Russian fixed wing jets featured less prominently early in this conflict than in Syria and the Kremlin hopes to change that.
OBSERVATION - Russia has failed to establish air superiority from day one of the invasion. It has largely been relegated to strategic bombers firing cruse missiles with some limited close air support. Meanwhile, Ukraine has gained a multifaceted air defense capability. Efforts to drain Ukranian ADA missile stockpiles is diminishing as Ukraine has transitioned to guns-based systems to shoot down the drone swarms, freeing up missiles to tackle the Russian missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
There seems to be further signs of fighting intensity declining as the weather deteriorates in many parts of the country. Fighting continues to be intense around Donetsk and in the villages on the northern side of Bakhumt.
Russian shelling yesterday remained mostly more sporadic in the impacted regions. Shelling exchanges occurred north of Kherson and there were some intensive Russian shelling attacks around Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ground conflict northwest of Svatove overnight with scattered artillery along the LOC. Some rumors that Hwy 66 between Svatove and Kreminna has been cut by Ukraine forces – to be confirmed. Likely Ukraine SOF.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut and Donetsk attacks continue.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.
Crimean front ———
Relatively calm, some Russian artillery striking Kherson city Ukrainian continues deep strikes on Russian CPs, Logistics and troop concentrations.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
As of late, the battlefield seems to have calmed down into a predictable pattern. Russia continues to batter itself via frontal attacks on Ukrainian defenses along the Dontesk-Bakhmut line using a much degraded Russian artillery corps for support. Ukraine makes progression towards cutting off the north of Lutusk oblast via progress along the Svatove – Keminna front.
A lot of dynamics have changed after the now nearly 10 months of conflict. The massive advantage in Russian artillery is nearly gone – lost to attrition from Ukraine fire, lack of replacement gun barrels and loss of ammo dumps making resupply problems even worse. Russian missile/cruse missile fires have dropped considerably from early on and now Russia is looking to Iran for new supplies. Now even more poorly trained and equipped soldiers are manning the Russian lines and they are hoping for a break in the action.
Ukrainian success has come at the cost of a lot of western arms and munitions – a lot. IMHO, Ukraine has to make or break it this winter, else the war will quickly break down into a stale mate.
Belarus -
Belarus is considering turning to Iran to help it produce 152mm and 122mm artillery shells, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reported on Saturday.
Furthermore, the country is seeking Iran’s assistance with transitioning to a closed ammunition production cycle.
Additionally, Belarus is assessing the possibility of assembling 122-mm, 220-mm, and 300-mm artillery projectiles using imported components.
OBSERVATION – These rounds will ultimately be used by Russia in Ukraine – but it will take time to get production ramped up and a lot of sanctions to work around.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Talks between Kosovo and Serbian diplomats in Brussels have reportedly failed. Talks were being held to find a solution to the ongoing issue of license plates. Kosovo officials are demanding that all those residing in Kosovo swap Serbian-issued number plates for Kosovo ones. Serbia’s Vucic says absolutely no agreement was reached, and “tough days and sleepless nights await us”.
Kosovo has sent police special forces to northern Kosovo, Serbia’s president Vucic says. “Close to conflict.
Vucic did announce that “his country would stop issuing and renewing license plates in northern Kosovo.”
Kosovo has postponed plans to begin fining drivers with Serbian license plates for another two days. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said on Twitter that he had granted a request from US Ambassador Jeff Hovenier for a 48-hour delay in the imposition of fines for“illegal” license plates. “I am happy to work with the US and the EU to find a solution during the next two days,” he wrote.
Shortly before Kurti’s announcement, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price pointed out that both Kosovo and Serbia “will need to make concessions to ensure that we do not jeopardize decades of hard-won peace in an already fragile region.”
According to Pristina’s plan, drivers who failed to switch from Serbian to Kosovo car plates will be fined €150 (around $154). But after the transition period ends in April 2023, they would have their vehicles seized.
OBSERVATION - Serbia’s offer to end its issuance of license plates in northern Kosovo provides Vucic with a quick PR victory and a moral high ground on which to fuel domestic propaganda narratives to justify military interventions in Kosovo in order to protect ethnic Serbs from “mistreatment.” This mirrors similar narrative techniques utilized by Serbia’s ally, Russia, to justify its war in Ukraine and may indicate Russian attempts to manipulate tensions in the Balkans to draw NATO’s attention away from Ukraine. (FO)
FURTHER – Looking to see available OSINT that indicates if Serbia has postured its miliary for any kind of invasion. Such an invasion would likely result in the invocation of NATO Article 5 response.
Israel –
Gen. Aharon Haliva, the head of Israeli military intelligence, warned Monday that Iran could soon approach the 90% uranium enrichment level necessary to build a nuclear weapon, Axios reported.
“We are getting closer to the point where Iran will toy with enriching uranium to 90%, even if it will only be symbolic and in very small quantities at the beginning,” Haliva said at an Institute for National Security Studies conference in Tel Aviv.
The shocking move would still require a “few years or many, many months” to build a capable nuclear device, but suggested “the only thing holding them back” on flirting with the idea is how their Qatari allies would respond.
OBSERVATION – 90% potential ‘red line’ for Israel.
Iran –
The IRGC has attacked the headquarters of Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), an Iranian Kurdish dissident group, in Altun Kupri, south of Erbil province, Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Iranian opposition party headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) was also bombarded in Koya district of Erbil province.
Violence increases as protests continue. The protests are transitioning into an insurrection and the IRGC/regime response is resembling that of counterinsurgency operations. IRGC has been going and arresting/shooting anyone it believes to be an insurrectionist (protestor). This in turn has further inflamed protestor’ s passions for more protests and revenge.
Independent internet monitor NetBlocks announced a major disruption to Iranian internet networks as violent unrest sweeps the nation. NetBlocks said the disruption had severed the mobile internet for many users across the country in an apparent crackdown on the communications networks utilized by protestors and activist groups. The announcement comes as unconfirmed early reports indicate Iranian security forces launched major operations in the country’s western Kurdish-populated regions where open source videos indicate Iranian forces may have fired on protestors with live munitions resulting in casualties.
OBSERVATION – Unlike previous uprisings, this one appears to have the roots necessary to hold out and grow over a long period. Iran’s focus on Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq is valid in part because it is appearing that the protestors are starting to receive more and more support from their fellow kurds. The next level will be the smuggling of weapons and training cells to take the fight to the IRGC.
Iraq -
See Iran above on attacks on kurds.
Lebanon -
The United Nations World Food Program announced earlier today that it has boosted its food assistance to Lebanon and is now feeding approximately one-third of the country’s population. Lebanon has a population of about 6 million people, 1 million of which are Syrian refugees.
OBSERVATION - Now a third world country, Lebanon displays the woes that the wuhan/GGR induced global economic crash are producing. Making it worse are the efforts of Hezbollah to use the crisis to control the population and make them complaint with their preparations for war against Israel.
Syria -
Turkish drones and jets continued to target Kurdish elements in Syria.
There are unconfirmed reports that Kurdish forces have stepped up attacks in southern Turkey in response to the aerial attacks. Syrian oil fields now reportedly being
OBSERVATION – Turks don’t care and their aggression is not solely linked to the Kurds, but pro-Assad forces in the north.
Turkey -
Turkey now also starting to strike oil infrastructure in NE Syria, in particular in this area already faced with severe pollution that is affecting water quality, soil, air and livelihoods of local communities.
Misc of Note -
According to the Federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the U.S. is experiencing a nationwide shortage of the liquid form of the antibiotic Amoxicillin commonly used in pediatric cases. The shortage is due to increased demand, the FDA said. Three of the top four makers of the antibiotic reported supply issues.
OBSERVATION – I noted this shortage several weeks ago. Only now popping up on national feeds. I expect this to pan out like the ongoing baby formula crisis – shortages for an extended period of time. The liquid Amoxicillin shortage comes at the same time as record RSV and Influenza pediatric cases in the United States. While both are viruses, they can make children susceptible to bacterial infections that would normally be treated with Amoxicillin. A shortage could force medical providers to turn to alternatives or do without.
I’ve been warning of a convergence of factors targeting late fall, around the midterms. So far the bullet has been dodged – in a way and not quite as I was concerned, but to summarize –
1. Red wave – wimpered, giving democrats a ‘win’ on the national level.
2. G20/COP27 documented the globalist goals for a global digital ‘passport’; biometric secured digital currency and global warming agendas/reparations.
3. Economy is still on the sharp edge of disaster
4. Biden et al post midterms is doubling and tripling down on his policies.
5. Fed interest rates hammering the housing/mortgage markets
6. Fuel situation is in a serious state regionally.
7. Illegal immigration gets even worse.
Still pending is the potential rail road strike; more impacts from the Fed rate increases; resumption of conflict in the Balkans; armed conflict against iran (both US and Israel) and internal US political unrest as DoJ weaponized against Trump/conservatives and the republicans ramp up for going after biden graft and corruption.
These factors are all in play and IMHO still very much going into the red zone along with new ones. Serious watch over the next few months.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has been selling dollars in order to try and prop up their bond markets. And realize this. They are not selling USDs as part of some well-calculated plan because they want to. They are selling USDs because they HAVE to.
And it’s not working.
PauloMacro on Twitter referenced it like this:
“They used 7% of reserves to only keep the Yen from depreciating another 2.5% since they last intervened 4 weeks ago. If the same math holds, the BOJ will blow through the other 93% while the Yen depreciates another 33%, which is roughly what the Yen has depreciated since last December.”
“Said differently, the BOJ will have to blow through all its reserves just to keep the Yen at the same depreciation rate it has incurred over the last 12 months if the math on the last 2 interventions are any guide.””
OBSERVATION - ALL nations are facing this same problem. Central banks held rates far too low for far too long. The real issue now is that the entire system has become dependent on central banks to continue doing this and without it they could trigger a global economic disaster.
Some analysts are looking at Europe and warning of significant food shortages and shock in the near and long term. Having lost most of its imported fertilizer from Russia and Belarus, it finds itself incapable of its own production filling the gap given the shortage of and high price of natural gas. Add to the deliberate assault on agriculture by the Netherlands and Germany (against livestock industry) and they find themselves increasingly dependent on external sources of food. Those sources are in turn suffering similar fertilizer and ‘global warming’ issues too, with some countries restricting exports in order to insure its country is able to be fed first.
Fighting another move by the biden regime to kill the petrochemical industry, twelve attorneys general have submitted comments to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan expressing concerns about a new proposed rule they argue will increase energy costs and risk Americans’ safety.
At issue is the EPA’s proposed rule, “Accidental Release Prevention Requirements: Risk Management Programs under Clean Air Act; Safer Communities by Chemical Accident Prevention.” (87 Fed. Reg. 53,556), which Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton argues is another attempt by the Biden administration to revive an Obama-era “environmental justice” regulation. If implemented, it would far exceed the statutory authority of the EPA, the attorneys general argue, which was curtailed by the Supreme Court earlier this year.
The rule would require a range of American facilities and industries to implement costly new processes to minimize “climate change risks,” which the EPA hasn’t proved will reduce such risks, they argue. Those impacted by the regulations would include petroleum refineries, chemical manufacturers, water and wastewater treatment systems, chemical and petroleum wholesalers and terminals, food manufacturers, packing plants, cold storage facilities, agricultural chemical distributors, midstream gas plants, among others.
OBSERVATION - Biden, like 0bama before him, continues to use regulatory backdoors to impose its anti-petrochemical / anti-business agenda on the country. History indicates that this will end up tied up in courts for years while the regime will enforce it until an injunction is issued (then to continue to violate the injunction through minor modifications that change the initial regulation).
Eugenicists (like Bill Gates) see growth in Europe with increasing work to abort any child with any genetic shortcomings. In some European nations, there are very few with Downs Syndrome to be found – most being aborted upon detection. That effort is spreading to those who make it out of the womb thru euthanasia.
OBSERVATION – remember- GGR recently came out and called for a 50% reduction in the planet’s population by the year 2050 – numbers wise that is some 4 BILLION PEOPLE. mRNA reactions, abortion, euthanasia and yes, even wars and induced famine are the currently exposed tools, yet even those tools pale at the desired goal.
IIRC, when I was a kid the planet had 4 BILLION. The now destroyed Georgia Guidestones called for a 500 million population. The death and destruction prophesied in the Book of Revelation doesn’t seem to far off now.
Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor at the Bank of England (BoE), said the U.K. may need a digital British pound as he discussed whether the collapse of crypto exchange FTX would influence the country’s decision to issue a government-controlled digital currency.
Although he initially thought there was no connection between the FTX debacle and the central bank’s work on a central bank digital currency, Cunliffe said on Monday that he understands the concerns.
“Over the past few days, I have had a few comments both to the effect that the collapse of FTX shows that we need to get on and issue a digitally native pound – and to the effect that FTX shows that we do not need do so,”
OBSERVATION – The GGR elements moving forward to exploit the FTX debacle to push digital currency.
EPA has proposed a new estimate for the social cost of carbon emissions, nearly quadrupling the $51 a ton to $191 a ton. It has already drawn legal challenges from a host of Republican-led states. It will correspond to a $ 2-a-gallon gas tax. The metric puts a price tag on the alleged damages created by each metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions. Agencies can then use it as part of their analyses of the costs and benefits of more stringent climate regulation on sources ranging from power plants and automobiles to the oil and gas sector.
The Biden administration has used the Interagency Working Group’s interim value of $51 per metric ton of CO2. But earlier this month, EPA quietly proposed increasing that number to $190.
The administration’s use of the IWG’s interim social cost of greenhouse gases has been challenged in parallel lawsuits led by Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, both Republicans.
That document estimates the social cost of carbon as $120, $190, or $340 per metric ton of CO2, using discount rates of 2.5 percent, 2.0 percent, and 1.5 percent, respectively. Such rates reflect the weight given to future impacts of climate change.
OBSERVATION – This is in essence a tax on the economy and will eventually be used in part as a basis to pay reparations to third world countries for global warming impacts.
Economy –
A very slight breather, the national average price of gasoline dropped to $3.662 a gallon, while demand is 5% lower than this time last year. Diesel, however, remains sky high.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member Mike Christie said the push to replace fossil fuel plants with green energy alternatives is creating a crisis for U.S. grids by making energy more expensive, raising concern over the possibility of more frequent blackouts. Christie said he sees renewable energy as critical for cutting emissions, but the speed of transition needs to be realistic to prevent disruptions. (FO)
OBSERVATION – I am convinced, in part, that the great push to replace fossil fuels with “green” solutions is deliberate. You can co-file this under GGR if you want. The goal is to cause the economy to implode and lack of power to run the economy is one way to do it. Europe is the current test bed on a large scale for this disaster - we need to pay attention to the social disruptions that will occur this winter – because we are next.
The two largest freight-rail unions, SMART-TD and the BLET, were the last of the twelve unions covered by national bargaining to release the results of their members’ voting on the tentative labor agreement brokered by the Biden administration two months ago. The BLET narrowly voted to approve the contract, but SMART-TD narrowly voted to reject it. Parties will return to negotiation, with a strike first becoming legal on December 9.
Even one union going on strike would mean the entire national freight-rail network would shut down because the other unions would not cross a picket line. Four of the twelve unions have voted to reject the Biden-brokered deal.
OBSERVATION – Oncoming train wreck still on schedule.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
A federal judge ruled Monday that former White House press secretary Jen Psaki must comply with a subpoena and offer deposition in a lawsuit that claims the Biden administration colluded with Big Tech to censor speech.
Judge Terry Doughty of the Western District of Louisiana on Monday rejected a motion by attorneys for Psaki to block a court-ordered deposition, and said there is public interest in “determining whether First Amendment free speech rights have been suppressed.”
OBSERVATION – biden administration was very sloppy on this whole censorship issue – thinking they could get away with it scott free. It is becoming apparent that it isn’t so.
Cyber Warfare –
Some nasty group has attacked Comic.com and some affiliated websites – denying Americans their daily dose of humor. Personally, one of the few things that gets me going in the morning (besides a cup of coffee).
China –
Admiral Sam Paparo, Head of the US Pacific Fleet, publicly acknowledged the Chinese military has deployed a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile onboard its nuclear submarine fleet. Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has equipped its 6 Jin-class nuclear missile submarines with the JL-3 ICBM that he described as being “built to threaten the United States.” With an estimated range of 10,000km, the JL-3 can hit the continental U.S. from the protection of the South China Sea, granting China a true strategic deterrence triad. (FO)
OBSERVATION – A true threat, IIRC the South China Sea is relatively shallow and it is hard for boomers to hide very well. Still, six boomers deployed over the large area of the SCS is nearly looking for a needle in the haystack – unless we have (and maintain) a close fix on them.
North/South Korea –
The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned the United States Tuesday that it would face “a more fatal security crisis” as Washington pushes for U.N. condemnation of the North’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test.
“The U.S. should be mindful that no matter how desperately it may seek to disarm (North Korea), it can never deprive (North Korea) of its right to self-defense and that the more hell-bent it gets on the anti-(North Korea) acts, it will face a more fatal security crisis,” she said in a statement carried by state media.
OBSERVATION – This is one mean person and should Kim pass away suddenly, she wouldn’t hesitate taking control and starting a war.
Japan –
See GGR above on bond market blowup.
Over the weekend, Japan conducted two test firing events for the U.S.-Japan jointly produced SM-3 Block IIA missile system. Both tests took place in the vicinity of Hawaii on the Kauai U.S. Navy Missile Range Facility. The missile launches were conducted by two Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF) Maya-class destroyers against ballistic missile targets. Maya-class destroyers are the first AEGIS JMSDF destroyers equipped with a ballistic missile defense capability.
OBSERVATION – Japan is trying to quickly close the gap on ballistic missile defenses and procurement of established – almost off the shelf – US AEGIS systems with the SM-3 Block IIA missiles – is a common sense move. Such systems can not only be used to protect the fleet, but parts of Japan proper.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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The Pentagon believes that Russia is trying to secure aerial dominance through missile strikes that drain Ukraine’s air defense capabilities Russian fixed wing jets featured less prominently early in this conflict than in Syria and the Kremlin hopes to change that.
OBSERVATION - Russia has failed to establish air superiority from day one of the invasion. It has largely been relegated to strategic bombers firing cruse missiles with some limited close air support. Meanwhile, Ukraine has gained a multifaceted air defense capability. Efforts to drain Ukranian ADA missile stockpiles is diminishing as Ukraine has transitioned to guns-based systems to shoot down the drone swarms, freeing up missiles to tackle the Russian missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
There seems to be further signs of fighting intensity declining as the weather deteriorates in many parts of the country. Fighting continues to be intense around Donetsk and in the villages on the northern side of Bakhumt.
Russian shelling yesterday remained mostly more sporadic in the impacted regions. Shelling exchanges occurred north of Kherson and there were some intensive Russian shelling attacks around Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ground conflict northwest of Svatove overnight with scattered artillery along the LOC. Some rumors that Hwy 66 between Svatove and Kreminna has been cut by Ukraine forces – to be confirmed. Likely Ukraine SOF.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut and Donetsk attacks continue.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.
Crimean front ———
Relatively calm, some Russian artillery striking Kherson city Ukrainian continues deep strikes on Russian CPs, Logistics and troop concentrations.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
As of late, the battlefield seems to have calmed down into a predictable pattern. Russia continues to batter itself via frontal attacks on Ukrainian defenses along the Dontesk-Bakhmut line using a much degraded Russian artillery corps for support. Ukraine makes progression towards cutting off the north of Lutusk oblast via progress along the Svatove – Keminna front.
A lot of dynamics have changed after the now nearly 10 months of conflict. The massive advantage in Russian artillery is nearly gone – lost to attrition from Ukraine fire, lack of replacement gun barrels and loss of ammo dumps making resupply problems even worse. Russian missile/cruse missile fires have dropped considerably from early on and now Russia is looking to Iran for new supplies. Now even more poorly trained and equipped soldiers are manning the Russian lines and they are hoping for a break in the action.
Ukrainian success has come at the cost of a lot of western arms and munitions – a lot. IMHO, Ukraine has to make or break it this winter, else the war will quickly break down into a stale mate.
Belarus -
Belarus is considering turning to Iran to help it produce 152mm and 122mm artillery shells, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reported on Saturday.
Furthermore, the country is seeking Iran’s assistance with transitioning to a closed ammunition production cycle.
Additionally, Belarus is assessing the possibility of assembling 122-mm, 220-mm, and 300-mm artillery projectiles using imported components.
OBSERVATION – These rounds will ultimately be used by Russia in Ukraine – but it will take time to get production ramped up and a lot of sanctions to work around.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Talks between Kosovo and Serbian diplomats in Brussels have reportedly failed. Talks were being held to find a solution to the ongoing issue of license plates. Kosovo officials are demanding that all those residing in Kosovo swap Serbian-issued number plates for Kosovo ones. Serbia’s Vucic says absolutely no agreement was reached, and “tough days and sleepless nights await us”.
Kosovo has sent police special forces to northern Kosovo, Serbia’s president Vucic says. “Close to conflict.
Vucic did announce that “his country would stop issuing and renewing license plates in northern Kosovo.”
Kosovo has postponed plans to begin fining drivers with Serbian license plates for another two days. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said on Twitter that he had granted a request from US Ambassador Jeff Hovenier for a 48-hour delay in the imposition of fines for“illegal” license plates. “I am happy to work with the US and the EU to find a solution during the next two days,” he wrote.
Shortly before Kurti’s announcement, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price pointed out that both Kosovo and Serbia “will need to make concessions to ensure that we do not jeopardize decades of hard-won peace in an already fragile region.”
According to Pristina’s plan, drivers who failed to switch from Serbian to Kosovo car plates will be fined €150 (around $154). But after the transition period ends in April 2023, they would have their vehicles seized.
OBSERVATION - Serbia’s offer to end its issuance of license plates in northern Kosovo provides Vucic with a quick PR victory and a moral high ground on which to fuel domestic propaganda narratives to justify military interventions in Kosovo in order to protect ethnic Serbs from “mistreatment.” This mirrors similar narrative techniques utilized by Serbia’s ally, Russia, to justify its war in Ukraine and may indicate Russian attempts to manipulate tensions in the Balkans to draw NATO’s attention away from Ukraine. (FO)
FURTHER – Looking to see available OSINT that indicates if Serbia has postured its miliary for any kind of invasion. Such an invasion would likely result in the invocation of NATO Article 5 response.
Israel –
Gen. Aharon Haliva, the head of Israeli military intelligence, warned Monday that Iran could soon approach the 90% uranium enrichment level necessary to build a nuclear weapon, Axios reported.
“We are getting closer to the point where Iran will toy with enriching uranium to 90%, even if it will only be symbolic and in very small quantities at the beginning,” Haliva said at an Institute for National Security Studies conference in Tel Aviv.
The shocking move would still require a “few years or many, many months” to build a capable nuclear device, but suggested “the only thing holding them back” on flirting with the idea is how their Qatari allies would respond.
OBSERVATION – 90% potential ‘red line’ for Israel.
Iran –
The IRGC has attacked the headquarters of Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), an Iranian Kurdish dissident group, in Altun Kupri, south of Erbil province, Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Iranian opposition party headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) was also bombarded in Koya district of Erbil province.
Violence increases as protests continue. The protests are transitioning into an insurrection and the IRGC/regime response is resembling that of counterinsurgency operations. IRGC has been going and arresting/shooting anyone it believes to be an insurrectionist (protestor). This in turn has further inflamed protestor’ s passions for more protests and revenge.
Independent internet monitor NetBlocks announced a major disruption to Iranian internet networks as violent unrest sweeps the nation. NetBlocks said the disruption had severed the mobile internet for many users across the country in an apparent crackdown on the communications networks utilized by protestors and activist groups. The announcement comes as unconfirmed early reports indicate Iranian security forces launched major operations in the country’s western Kurdish-populated regions where open source videos indicate Iranian forces may have fired on protestors with live munitions resulting in casualties.
OBSERVATION – Unlike previous uprisings, this one appears to have the roots necessary to hold out and grow over a long period. Iran’s focus on Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq is valid in part because it is appearing that the protestors are starting to receive more and more support from their fellow kurds. The next level will be the smuggling of weapons and training cells to take the fight to the IRGC.
Iraq -
See Iran above on attacks on kurds.
Lebanon -
The United Nations World Food Program announced earlier today that it has boosted its food assistance to Lebanon and is now feeding approximately one-third of the country’s population. Lebanon has a population of about 6 million people, 1 million of which are Syrian refugees.
OBSERVATION - Now a third world country, Lebanon displays the woes that the wuhan/GGR induced global economic crash are producing. Making it worse are the efforts of Hezbollah to use the crisis to control the population and make them complaint with their preparations for war against Israel.
Syria -
Turkish drones and jets continued to target Kurdish elements in Syria.
There are unconfirmed reports that Kurdish forces have stepped up attacks in southern Turkey in response to the aerial attacks. Syrian oil fields now reportedly being
OBSERVATION – Turks don’t care and their aggression is not solely linked to the Kurds, but pro-Assad forces in the north.
Turkey -
Turkey now also starting to strike oil infrastructure in NE Syria, in particular in this area already faced with severe pollution that is affecting water quality, soil, air and livelihoods of local communities.
Misc of Note -
According to the Federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the U.S. is experiencing a nationwide shortage of the liquid form of the antibiotic Amoxicillin commonly used in pediatric cases. The shortage is due to increased demand, the FDA said. Three of the top four makers of the antibiotic reported supply issues.
OBSERVATION – I noted this shortage several weeks ago. Only now popping up on national feeds. I expect this to pan out like the ongoing baby formula crisis – shortages for an extended period of time. The liquid Amoxicillin shortage comes at the same time as record RSV and Influenza pediatric cases in the United States. While both are viruses, they can make children susceptible to bacterial infections that would normally be treated with Amoxicillin. A shortage could force medical providers to turn to alternatives or do without.
I’ll be standing down for tomorrow in celebration of Thanksgiving. Ever thankful for my family, friends and faith. I’ll be watching the Macy’s parade, setting up my outdoor nativity scene and eating turkey. In times of uncertainty I’ll enjoy that we still can celebrate the holidays – for one more year.
Woops, looks like I double clutched yesterday’s post.
Globalism / Great Reset –
There appears to be a new push under the radar for a new WHO pandemic treaty. This hit the front burner many months ago but now is resurfacing. Key item of this treaty reportedly is the abilty for the WHO to overrule your local doctors, hospitals and clinics, forcing them to follow WHO directives on things like masks, quarantines, social distancing and economic lockdowns. WHO pandemic treaty also calls for global censorship against all who disagree with the WHO, allowing the WHO to dictate which voices or organizations should be removed from tech platforms. In essence, it makes the WHO the “Ministry of Truth.”
OBSERVATION – I slogged through part of this document – eyes quickly rolled up into my head at the bureaucrease language. Apparently there is an edited draft floating around the interwebs from Nov 16th timeframe. For those interested the link is below.
https://www.keionline.org/wp-content/uploads/ADVANCE_for_16_November_A_INB3_3_E.pdf
As it turns out, creating soy burgers and other “meat substitutes” isn’t much better — or safer. According to a report in Bloomberg, a plant operated by the fake meat company Beyond Meat is a veritable petri dish of really gross and nasty stuff.
“Products from the plant tested positive for Listeria, a harmful bacteria, on at least 11 occasions during the second half of last year and the first half of 2022, according to an internal document provided by a former employee concerned about conditions at the plant,” reported the news site.
OBSERVATION – Eat bugs and fake meat created under gross conditions - the elite don’t care.
Wuhan virus –
A new Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) report suggests the need for masking and social distancing mandates to protect people from “long COVID.”
Long COVID lacks a specific definition, but generally covers signs, symptoms, and conditions that continue or develop after initial infection.
One short-term recommendation for the general public is: “Encourage or mandate policies and protocols regarding masking and social distancing in public spaces that protect people from infection or reinfection and possible Long COVID.”
The report maintains that ending the mask mandate in late 2021 and 2022 is making it harder for people with long COVID.
“Many people with Long COVID avoid public spaces and events due to a fear of reinfection and the potential worsening of their Long COVID symptoms and health impacts. Some may experience PTSD symptoms as a result of trauma they incurred during their acute infection,” the report said.
OBSERVATION – CDC denying their own science. They’ve admitted that masks do very little to nothing to prevent the spread of wuhan. If it makes long wuhan sufferers feel better to stay masked- then they should. However, to force it upon the rest of society has been proven to be wrong. BTW – I agree that there is something called ‘long covid’ – and I think if/when the medical community gets its head out of its arse and really look at it they may find ways to fight it. However, it seems they want to persist on the same misinformation we’ve had to put up with for over 2 years.
In April of this year (2022), a paper was published that demonstrated that patients who had received a lung transplant were experiencing lung transplant rejection (“LTR”) due to what appeared to be antibody-mediated rejection (“AMR”).
Limited antibody response to messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines has been reported in LTR, with the majority mounting a response after the 2nd dose. In this series, 3 patients developed new and significant respiratory compromise after their 2nd vaccine dose consistent with antibody-mediated rejection (AMR).
Covid-19 Vaccine Triggered Rejection in Lung Transplant Recipients: A Case Series, The Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation, April 2022
OBSERVATION- Remember, some big time organ transplant hospitals have been rejecting patients because they haven’t had the jab. Now this information goes to confirm more nasty side effects from the mRNA they want infecting your body. It in fact appears to cause rejections.
Economy –
Advocates of wind and solar energy have argued that the cost of those energy sources would decline over time as they are more widely adopted. That never made any sense, and it has not proved true. In fact, the cost of both wind and solar energy is destined to continue rising sharply as the massive quantities of materials they require become more expensive as a result of increasing demand, driven by government mandates and subsidies.
In fact, the cost of electricity generated by wind and solar is already skyrocketing , having almost doubled in three years,
OBSERVATION - Wind/solar are fantasies and cannot take over for conventional power plants.
The Labor Department cleared the path for employers to consider environmental, social, and governance principles when choosing investment funds for their 401(k) plans.
The move, which was announced on Tuesday, rolls back restrictions put in place during the Trump administration that made ESG considerations more challenging for employers. The final rule on the matter will take effect in 60 days.
“Today’s rule clarifies that retirement plan fiduciaries can take into account the potential financial benefits of investing in companies committed to positive environmental, social, and governance actions as they help plan participants make the most of their retirement benefits,” Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said.
“Removing the prior administration’s restrictions on plan fiduciaries will help America’s workers and their families as they save for a secure retirement,” he added.
OBSERVATION – This follows BlackRock’s lead in forcing ESG on corporations through back door govt pushing. Instead of securing one’s future, it will eventually destroy them – feeding right into GGR / WEF goals to make people dependent on bigger govt.
Invasion of Illegals –
Kevin McCarthy, on Tuesday called on Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to step down, warning that the House may try to impeach him when Republicans take the majority next year.
OBSERVATION - Impeachment is far too good of a consequence for this piece of evil detrital.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Anderson Lee Aldrich, the suspect who allegedly shot and killed five people and wounded at least 18 others over the weekend at an LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado, identifies as non-binary and uses “they/them” pronouns, according to a court filing on Tuesday night.
OBSERVATION – Progressives and their LGBTQ etc. henchmen find their legs cut out from beneath them again, yet they press on claiming MAGA and conservatives are the reason for this violent act. In fact the rhetoric from the left has been inflammatory. Have to monitor this trend as Antifa has been ‘partnering’ with the LGBTQ etc community to protest/counterprotest many events pro/con.
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY –
The collapse of FTX has generated pressure for Democrats to divest themselves of what they received from the failed Ponzi scheme in campaign contributions.
China –
In the last few days, the mainland China daily Covid case count has climbed to around or more than 28,000 — near levels seen in April during a stringent lockdown in Shanghai, according to CNBC calculations of Wind Information data.
“China might have already passed the point of no return, as it’s unlikely to achieve zero Covid again without another Shanghai-style hard lockdown,” Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu said in a report Tuesday.
In GDP terms, nearly 20% of China’s economy was negatively affected by Covid controls as of Monday, close to the high of 21.2% recorded in mid-April during Shanghai’s lockdown, Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said, citing the firm’s model.
OBSERVATION - China’s economy will continue to be suppressed as long as Xi pursues the zero covid policy.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 85,000 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 278 fighter, attack, bomber and transport jets, 261 attack and transport helicopters, 2,895 tanks, 1,882 artillery pieces, 5,827 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 395 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 16 boats and cutters, 4,393 vehicles and fuel tanks, 209 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,537 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 161 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 480 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
OBSERVATION - Getting a solid count – for either side – is difficult. Doubly so for some battlefields like the Bahkmut region which resembles a WW1 zone where the dead and wounded don’t get recovered. Equipment totals are in line with OSINT trackers of verifiable losses, which generally undercounts actual losses. No matter how you slice it – Russia’s army has been taking a beating – far far worse than Afghanistan and Chechenia combined.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian special forces are reportedly battling the Russians on the islands and in marshes to the southwest, trying to push them out of a strategically vital peninsula at the mouth of the Dnipro River where it meets the Black Sea.
The fighting is focused on the Kinburn Spit, on the east bank of the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian authorities said on Tuesday. For tourists who have visited the sliver of land, the spit is a place of rare natural beauty, but it could also prove pivotal to the next phase of the country’s war against Moscow.
Russia took control of the peninsula in June in one of its last notable advances in the south before it was forced onto the defensive by a sustained Ukrainian counteroffensive. Two weeks ago, the Kremlin ordered a retreat from the city of Kherson, on the west bank of the Dnipro, but military experts said it would fight tenaciously to keep control of Kinburn.
Control of the peninsula allows Russia to project force deeper into the Black Sea, guard routes to the ports in Mykolaiv and Kherson and protect its forces in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. If Ukraine were to take Kinburn, it would put key Russian supply lines running north out of Crimea in easy range of Ukrainian weapon systems.
OBSERVATION – This action is being reported, but not confirmed.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
After a lull of several days, Russia launched a new round of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian power grid overnight across the whole country. Ukrainian power grid operator warns of blackout up to 24 hours across Ukraine.
Russia also has apparently targeted hospitals in Ukraine, hitting two with missiles.
Russian shelling increased on Zaporizhzhia and the Sumy region overnight with significant shelling exchanges around Kherson too. Russian shelling around Bakhmut and north of Donetsk remained intensive at times, while in most other impacted regions it was mostly more sporadic
No changes of significance were reported around Bakhmut despite Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Activity concentrated northwest of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut and Donetsk attacks continue.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Russian army constructing fortifications along Kherson-Melitopol highway, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
Crimean front ———
Relatively calm, some Russian artillery striking Kherson city Ukrainian continues deep strikes on Russian CPs, Logistics and troop concentrations.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Governor of Belgorod region reports shelling in Ustinka village
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
No change expected in the near future. Bahkmut, Donetsk and Svatove-Kreminna all constant.
Mix in sporadic Russian missile attacks on the power grid.
Israel –
Members of Knesset (MKs) from the parties involved in the coalition negotiations demanded on Wednesday morning that a government be formed immediately in the wake of the bombings in Jerusalem. “I will not speak about politics but I will say one thing. We need to form a government as quickly as possible – the terror will not wait,” Otzma Yehudit chairman MK Itamar Ben-Gvir said at the site of the explosion at the entrance to the city.
Iran –
Iran has begun enriching uranium to 60% at its underground Fordow nuclear site, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Tehran had sent a letter to the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency informing the nuclear watchdog of the move, said the report.
Syria -
Turkish warplanes bombed “Saeeda and Zaraba Oil Stations” with air raids in Qamishli canton, north of Al-Hasakah, amid plumes of smoke rising in the area.
Turkey -
President Erdogan – “Turkey’s operations will ensure the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria. We will complete the safe line step by step, starting from boil-headed places such as Tel Rifat, Manbij and Ayn al Arab.”
“The operations we carry out with planes, artillery and drones are only the beginning.”
“”It has been understood that the forces that assured our country that no threat would come from the regions under their control in Syria failed to keep their promises.”
Misc of Note -
Now, in addition to reporting shortages of some of the world’s most widely used antibiotics, pharmacies across the US have reported that kids’ Tylenol too has become scarce.
OBSERVATION – If you know the common, over the counter medicines you use during the winter cold and flu season – you better stock up now because current shortages are not going to get any better soon and other items are likely to become scarce as well. Here in my home, we’ve stocked up early for years on common items we normally use such as ‘theraflu’, throat lozenges, pain meds (asprin, Tylenol, etc) and the like. Now with the grandkiddies stocking up on stuff like kids Tylenol and cough/cold meds. Don’t just sit there – DO IT.
Hope everyone had a blessed thanksgiving. Took an extra day off to go out into the woods and cut down a Christmas tree and get decorations up on the house. Still have a little more outside work while temperatures have moderated.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SUMMARY –
Past week showed a greater push for a nationalized digital currency by several nations. More movement towards green energy goals, but those are becoming increasingly bogged down to the unreliability of the systems and skyrocketing costs.
On Wednesday Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan had teamed up with three megabanks and regional financial institutions to start a digital yen trial in spring 2023. If all goes according to plan the BOJ may go ahead and release a CBDC in 2026.
OBSERVATION – The move to a CBDC could happen earlier if Japan wanted. But the GGR march goes onward.
On 14 November, several top Chinese government agencies collectively released a draft law on the Establishment of the Social Credit System, the first attempt to systematically codify past experiments on social credit and, theoretically, guide future implementation.
This law is formulated so as to improve the social credit system, innovate mechanisms for societal governance, optimize the business environment, standardize order in the Socialist market economy, raise the entire society’s awareness of creditworthiness, advocate the Core Socialist Values, and complete a credit reporting system that covers the entire society.
Law of the PRC on the Establishment of the Social Credit System (Draft Released for Solicitation of Public Comments), China Law Translate, 14 November 2022
The law largely follows local rules that Chinese cities like Shanghai have released and enforced in recent years on things like data collection and punishment methods – just giving them a stamp of central approval.
When the Chinese government talks about social credit, the term covers two different things: traditional financial creditworthiness and “social creditworthiness,” which draws data from a larger variety of sectors. The new draft law addresses the two types of creditworthiness with two different sets of rules.
OBSERVATION - China has been developing this combined social credit system for a good year now. It looks like it is close to going nationwide. GGR/WEF have touted the system as a step closer to what they want enacted globally.
Wuhan virus –
On Wednesday Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, along with Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, deposed Anthony Fauci (head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [NIAID]) at the National Institutes for Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Maryland.
During questioning, Dr. Fauci admitted that he got the idea for the unprecedented economic lockdowns in America based on the draconian measures taken by the Communist Chinese regime.
Fauci sent his longtime co-hort Clifford Lane to China in February to assess the situation. Lane was enthralled with the Chinese measures and pushed the idea on Dr. Fauci.
OBSERVATION – Well, apparently Fauci accepted the most likely tailored views of the China lockdowns from one man who received data from a regime known to lie.
CDC appears to be roughly estimating that 58% of Americans who died from Covid in August were vaccinated. Clearly, now it has become a pandemic of the vaccinated.
Economy –
SUMMARY-
More evidence that economic guru’s are looking at a recession in 2023, but are holding onto hopes that it will be mild.
Black Friday sales at first look seem to be underwhelming.
Agriculture industry is expecting continued high costs for fertilizer and fuel to dominate next years crop cycle, in some cases causing farmers to pull back planting. Record avian flu has killed over 50 million birds over the course of the past year and it shows little signs of lessening as we move into another flu season.
Today is the ‘official’ black Friday – tradition states that after today, businesses will be in “the black” as far as sales revenue goes. This year pre-black Friday sales were rampant, in part due to the damage stores have received from the biden economy struggling out of the wuhan lockdowns and skyrocketing inflation that has kept many shoppers out of the stores. Initial reports are sales were lackluster. Some polls suggested that average spending this year will be up to around $500, but the actual number of presents purchased will be down.
Larry Kudlow, former National Economic Council director under the Trump administration, says there are multiple leading indicators pointing to a recession in 2023.
The first is the Conference Board’s leading indicator, which he calls a “highly accurate forecasting tool” based on 10 key data points—including interest rate spreads, consumer expectations, manufacturing, stock prices, and building permits for new homes.
The Conference Board now forecasts 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth will come in at 1.8% and 2023 GDP will slow to zero.
Second, the money supply, or M2, a measure that Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman championed. M2 has ballooned under President Biden’s “massive increase in federal spending that led to an equally massive money printing by the Federal Reserve,” Kudlow says.
“That was the single-biggest mistake by Joe Biden,” he maintains. “It moved the inflation rate up from about 1% to nearly 10%. Because of that, real wages have fallen 18 consecutive months.
“Third, Kudlow says, is the Treasury bond yield curve inversion between three-month bonds and 10-year Treasuries. Right now, the yields, respectively, are 4.30% and 3.80%, which Kudlow calls “a very alarming sign.”
The fourth gauge of a looming recession in 2023, he says, is actually a slew of bad economic news that cannot be ignored—not least of which are the housing downturn and manufacturing slowdown.
OBSERVATION – Kudlow did say it appeared that inflation was slowing, but would that be enough? Economists continue to see recession coming with some saying it won’t be very deep.
FOOD ISSUES - Farmers in central Oklahoma are warning that high diesel prices could lead to shortages, in addition to other problems. One farmer speaking with a media outlet in Norman, Oklahoma said that fertilizer and diesel costs to run his combines add up to more than what he can get for his soybean crop this year.(FO)
OBSERVATION – the potential for a US food shortage continues to simmer in the background. Soy accounts for a lot of agriculture products including animal feeds. Shortages here will ripple through out the food industry.
RELATED - The average cost of the five top fertilizers is marginally receding, but remains 2.5x higher than 2020 and slightly higher than this time last year.
MORE RELATED - According to the latest USDA numbers, outbreaks of avian flu have killed over 50 million poultry birds, making it the deadliest case in U.S. history. USDA officials are blaming migratory birds, such as ducks, for spreading the virus.
OBSERVATION – In regards to inflation, food prices are still seeing inflationary pressures like the above.
Diesel supplies have improved slightly, diesel and heating oil stocks rose slightly over the past six weeks, a positive sign heading into potential winter shortages. Overall stocks are still 16% below the five year average.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Speaking to reporters on Thursday morning in Nantucket, Massachusetts, Biden was asked to react to the mass shootings at a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on Saturday night and a Walmart in Chesapeake, Virginia, on Tuesday night. Biden complained that semi-automatic firearms are still sold and claimed red-flag laws are not enforced.
“I’m sick and tired of these shootings,” Biden said. “We should have much stricter gun laws.”
Biden then said he intends to pass a gun control bill during the lame-duck session if he can get the votes.
“I’m going to try,” Biden replied. “I’m going to try to get rid of assault weapons.”
“During the lame duck?” the reporter asked again.
“I’m going to do it whenever I — I got to make that assessment as I get in and start counting the votes.”
OBSERVATION – Note - the shooter is a self-described “non-binary” (ie gay) with serious mental problems. The left’s push for gun control during this lame duck session may just be a prequel to the next session where they will have a better majority and spineless republican ‘moderate’ like Romney et al. that could potentially vote for such a regulation - eliminating the need to kill the filibuster rule. It is expected that any gun control originating in the senate would be DOA in the house, but there again, 47 republicans joined the democrats in the ‘gay’ marriage act passage.
State attempts to register/control guns have largely been ineffective due to refusal by citizens to participate. Current USSC make- up is pro 2A but it could take years for any challenges to make it there.
Remember – a disarmed population is much easier for a tyranny to control
Antifa and affiliated groups/individuals are taking a beating on Twitter as Musk is targeting them for suspension/expulsion as they have used Twitter to be a platform for legal free speech, has moved to crack down on for terrorists and violent far-left extremists who have for many years been a fixture on Twitter and used it to organize riots. Following the lead by Andy Ngo, a gay journalist who’s documented Antifa et al violence in the streets and on Twitter.
In a typical Antifa response, calls have gone out to attack local Tesla dealerships. Ground zero being many of the Antifa strongholds along the west coast, with some attempts being made, but police were ready due to monitoring on line calls/organization of the attacks. Some Antifa affiliated individuals are callout attacks on Ngo and others on the right for unmasking their twitter networks.
OBSERVATION – Long overdue for removal and displaying the uber-leftist views of the so called twitter moderators. Musk is also targeting other leftist hate groups calling for anti-semitic attacks, etc. This as the howl of rage continues over Musk actually allowing opposing opinions and views back onto the site.
While there are other social media sites elements of Antifa can move onto - twitter was critical as it served to help recruit new members and ease of communication for elements. A lot of their discomfort is a result of their cockiness in thinking that they couldn’t be touched/suspended in twitter due to woke and sympathetic moderators. They no longer have that cover.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitterverse still lives in spite of all the doomers on the left saying it was going to implode due to the reinstatement of conservative views and removal of uber-leftist moderators. See CW2 above on Musk cleaning out Antifa.
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY –
Looks like the final house of reps count is GOP with 222 while the democrats would have 213.
Political maneuvering continues as house republicans lay out plans to investigate Hunter biden and his links to the president. Meanwhile, the AG continues to weaponize the agency against democrat opposition.
Newly appointed special counsel Jack Smith was instrumental in the Justice Department’s public integrity unit inserting itself into the Lois Lerner IRS scandal targeting conservative nonprofit groups. Lerner, director of the IRS’s Exempt Organizations Unit, led an IRS effort targeting Tea Party groups and similar conservative nonprofit organizations. Smith’s push for DOJ officials to contact Lerner and the IRS in order to get the DOJ involved seemed to be the impetus behind the IRS sending the FBI reams of nonprofit tax records.
“Jack Smith was looking for ways to prosecute the innocent Americans that Lois Lerner targeted during the IRS scandal,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), expected to lead the House Judiciary Committee next year, told the Washington Examiner.
Jordan and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), who led House Oversight, sought Smith’s testimony in May 2014, saying, “It is apparent that the Department’s leadership, including Public Integrity Section Chief Jack Smith, was closely involved in engaging with the IRS.”
Smith testified that month that he spoke with the FBI about these nonprofit groups. “We had a dialogue with the FBI. Never opened any investigations, Public Integrity [Unit] did not. But we did have a dialogue with them over time following this [Oct. 8, 2010, meeting with Lerner].”
OBSERVATION – Smith is a hack instead of truly investigate – but then that should be no surprise now. Many think that Garland’s move is to bleed off attention from any investigation of hunter biden by giving the MSN another story to pursue.
Democrats flipped the state Senate in Minnesota and both legislative chambers in Michigan, meaning members of the party will have full control of government because the states have Democratic governors.
OBSERVATION – Also include gaining control of the governorships in Arizona (tentative), Maryland and Massachusetts, dems are trying to take national level agenda points to the state level – in part trying to duplicate the success republicans have had.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is slated to return to Naval Station Norfolk from its inaugural deployment Saturday.
The carrier, which got underway Oct. 4, and its strike group focused on air defense, anti-subsurface warfare, distributed maritime operations, and conducted a transfer of authority with NATO during their time underway.
OBSERVATION – Shake down deployment appears to have been executed without any significant problems.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Navy started its second Digital Horizon exercise in the Persian Gulf to develop its unmanned surface vessel (USV) fleet. Artificial intelligence programs are also being tested to facilitate the integration of so many unmanned vehicles.
OBSERVATION – The Persian Gulf region is very constricting for our naval forces – large, ocean going vessel designs. USVs as well as smaller, heavily armed surface combatants will be the long term cutting edge of counter Iranian forces in the near future. USV could play a critical role in monitoring the gulf. A serious drawback is that Iran is more than willing to try to intercept and capture these USVs.
China –
Chinese government authorities began a new round of COVID lockdowns amid a record high daily infection rate across numerous major cities. China reports 35,183 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
Lockdown protests reported in Beijing as well other areas. In Beijing, more and more apartment compounds are forbidding residents from leaving for at least a few days.
Foxconn, the major producer of Apple iPhone products reportedly fired 20,000 employees at its plant in Zhengzhou after COVID related unrest. As a result, Foxconn has decreased total production output by 30%.
In another instance, Ten people died in a fire in flats in the city of Urumqi, capital of the western Xinjiang region. The incident has led to anger online and in the street with many claiming people living in the fire-hit compound had been largely prevented from leaving their homes due to the lockdown.
OBSERVATION – China is losing control with its lockdowns, because of the scope as well as citizen refusal to continue under so many prolonged lockdowns. Economic woes are increasing as well.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues to sell dollars and replace them with gold. According to the World Gold Council, from July-September of this year, the PBOC quadrupled gold purchases, adding 300 tons to its reserves. Since February of this year, China has sold over 121 billion in U.S. Treasuries and increased gold transactions 50 times the 2021 level.
OBSERVATION – This action is two fold. First is to protect itself against sanctions inflicted by the west against any action against Taiwan or support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The second is to threaten the dominance of the dollar using a gold-backed yuan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering in its tenth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Kerch Bridge update –
Russia has finally found a use for its inactive amphibious assault ships – shipping supplies to the Crimea while the Kerch bridge is being repaired.
Logistics –
- Examination of some of the cruse missiles Ukraine was able to shoot down in the recent missile attacks on the electrical grid has revealed that Russia appears to have removed the nuclear warheads from 1980’s vintage AS-15 KENT and Kh-55 ALCMs, replacing them apparently with some sort of ballast – no conventional warhead. Such a system will still produce damage through the missile’s kinetic energy and unspent fuel. More likely, they were fired as a means to try to overwhelm the Ukrainian ADA network. It is being suspected by some that this is more evidence that this improvisation highlights the level of depletion in Russia’s stock of long-range missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Much of Ukraine remains in darkness following this week’s missile barrages by Russia targeting the power grid. Russian air/missile strikes were limited yesterday and overnight.
Russian assaults on Bahkmut region resumed yesterday. Elsewhere, Russian forces worked to reinforce some frontlines in the southeast and are heavily fortifying other defensive positions.
Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic in most of the impacted regions, with intensive attacks on Kherson.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Activity concentrated northwest of Svatove. Russian artillery fire along the border north-northeast of Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian continued assaults west of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery strikes
Crimean front ———
As noted above, intense Russian artillery strikes in the Kherson area.
Ukraine continued its deep interiction campaign into occupied Kherson Oblast with explosions reported in Skadovsk and Nova Kakhovka while ammunition explosions reported in Chaplynka region
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Failing ground campaign, Russia is trying to force submission through a strategic war on Ukraine’s will by attacking the power grid. In that aspect, Russia has gained a degree of success it hasn’t seen elsewhere in the fighting.
In the near term, Ukraine is probing for new areas of weakness to exploit and positioning troops and equipment for that action.
Russia is trying to dig in to hole the remaining terrain it has captured since the start of the war.
Russia may attempt more missile barrages on what’s left of the Ukrainian power grid, but in doing so may risk bringing NATO closer into the conflict. Many options exist for NATO – deploying more advanced air defense systems, deploying longer range weapons like ATACAMS (likely in my view), etc. A spiral of escalation that could bring NATO – Russia into direct conflict.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Last round of Russian missile attacks spilled over into Moldova causing a massive blackout. Moldelectrica, Moldova TSO, reported more than 50% of the country lost electricity.
Belarus -
The European Parliament - Aleksandr Lukashenka must face the tribunal. The EP condemned the human rights violations in the country and Russia’s usage of Belarus for military purposes
State Security Service of Georgia announced on 24 November that the Russian forces illegally detained a Georgian citizen in the area surrounding occupied Artsevi Village, which is beyond the occupation line with Tskhinvali region/S. Ossetia
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The United States on Wednesday welcomed an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to end a nearly two-year dispute over car license plates in northern Kosovo.
OBSERVATION – The details of this agreement are lost in the news flow.
Israel –
Israel’s new govt coalition is still negotiating for positions. Under the coalition agreement between the Likud and Otzma Yehudit party, Itamar Ben Gvir as “National Security Minister” will be given control over the Border Police West Bank division, a unit historically subordinate to the army and Defense Ministry.
Russian Presidential Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev said on November 23, 2022 that the Russian government firmly opposes Israeli airstrikes on Syrian soil. According to TAAS, Lavrentiev then called on Israel to cease these airstrikes
.
“As for Israeli airstrikes, we are strongly against such actions by the Israelis, even though they still say that this is their legal right. But we see that people are dying, not just infrastructure and arsenal being destroyed, and all this is happening on the territory of a sovereign state. Such actions, of course, are illegal, and do not comply with any international norms and laws. We are not only calling, we are demanding that Israel should stop these airstrikes and we will continue to do so,” he stated.
OBSERVATION – Prior to the Ukraine war, Israel and Russia had a fundamental understanding that Israel wouldn’t target Russian assets as long as Russia didn’t engage Israeli assets while attacking Iranian/Hezebollah targets. The dynamics of the situation have changed as Russia – Iranian ties have grown due to Russia’s needs for more drones/missiles to prosecute the war with Ukraine with. No doubt part of that is Iran pushing Russia to interject itself into the Israeli airstrike operations. What can Russia do to back up its orders to Israel? At this stage, very little. Russia has significantly downsized its ground forces by redeploying them to Ukraine. Russia still has some air defense assets, covering its bases and fighter-bomber aircraft. Were Russia to try to interdict Israeli attacks, it would not end well for them.
One possible action to watch out for is Iranian/Hezbollah efforts to move their facilities closer to Russian bases – something that Russia has refused in the past to avoid any accidental impacts from an Israeli strike.
Iran –
Iran Locals are continuing the nationwide anti-government protests on the 69th night of the uprising and standing up to the security units. Heaviest fighting is concentrated in western, Kurdish dominated regions of Iran.
There are rumors that Iran is deploying armored units to the border of Kurdish Iraq, reportedly to follow up on a threat to invade if Iraq fails to stop the Kurds from cross border operations associated with the nationwide protests.
OBSERVATION – Both sides are digging in their heels and preparing for the long term fight. Reports that over 500 protestors have been killed are galvanizing the protestors.
Iraq -
As in Syria, Kurdish lead forces have been key to keeping ISIS at bay. Now kurds in Iraq are having to divert forces to deal with an anticipated Iranian assalt, similar to the Turks in Syria. Evidence is that ISIS is already taking advantage of the situation and appears to be increasing its attacks in Iraq and Syria.
Syria -
At the meeting held in Qamishli, Russia asked the YPG (Kurdish faction) to withdraw all its military presence from the Turkish border to the M4 road (and leave the entire region to the government). Otherwise, Russia warned the YPG that Turkey’s military operation was inevitable. YPG has rejected it.
Gen. Mazloum Abdi — top military commander for the Kurdish-led, U.S.-allied Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) — said on Wednesday his alliance must suspend operations against the resurgent Islamic State in order to prepare for a potentially massive Turkish invasion that could put hundreds of American troops in Syria at risk.
“We did not freeze the joint actions against ISIS alongside the international coalition on purpose. But as I say, we had to stop this action as we go because we are under tremendous stress of a possible Turkish incursion into our areas,” Gen. Mazloum told Fox News on Wednesday.
SEE Iran above about ISIS and kurds.
Turkey -
See Syria above
Central / South America General-
Unconfirmed reports that Bolsonaro has spent the day with the minister of Defense meeting different military officials. They concluded that they have exhausted every democratic option to solve the issue.
OBSERVATION - The military has stepped in in the past to overthrow govt. The claims of vote fraud – and those who claim it are having their children removed and bank accounts zeroed out are just the tip of the iceberg. Things could get very dicey. However at the moment, the military is in a watching mode, not ready to act on one side or the other.
First, thanks GZ for all you do! Read your post every day.
Since 79% of the population is vaccinated, I'd say that it becomes a "pandemic of the vaccinated" when the death rate is more than 79% vaccinated people.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Townhall is reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau inquired about the use of martial law in February during the Freedom Convoy protests.
Two of Canada’s federal ministers talked about using tanks against the peaceful protests who were advocating for their right to not be mandated to get a vaccine.
On April 25, The Public Order Emergency Commission looked into whether the use of wartime vehicles to stop the trucker protests was justified or not. Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti wrote to liberal Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino on Feb. 2 saying “how many tanks are you asking for? I just wanna ask [Defense Minister] Anita [Anand] how many we’ve got on hand?”
Lametti responded saying, “I reckon one will do!”
However, Lametti claimed that the use of tanks was meant to be a joke, despite Trudeau declaring martial law at the time.
Trudeau’s government defended the action of using wartime tanks saying that the country’s “social cohesion, national unity and international reputation” were at serious risk of “irremediable harms” at the hands of the peaceful protestors.
OBSERVATION – Trudeau’s crackdown was huge by itself, but martial law and deployment of tanks is a step far above that. He is in hot water for his emergency declaration and is having trouble justifying it as it undergoes mandatory review. Bottom line is he’ll have his feathers scorched but will remain in power and will continue to move to suppress the rights of Canadians on a plethora of other GGR related issues – most recently global warming versus western Canadian agriculture / ranching.
The WHO has come out with detailed plans to jab the world in its IA2030 plan (note parallel to the Agenda 2030)
What is IA2030?
IA2030 is an ambitious global strategy to maximize the lifesaving impact of vaccines that, if fully implemented, will save 50 million lives over the next decade.
• IA2030 seeks to create a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age fully benefits from vaccines for good health and well-being.
• It is designed to inspire action around the world, and inform how health ministers and other leaders develop immunization programmes and set priorities. It will also strengthen global immunization efforts by aligning all stakeholders around a shared vision, priorities, and goals.
• IA2030 is guided by four principles: it puts people in the centre, and is led by countries, implemented through broad partnerships, and driven by high-quality data. As an adaptive and flexible strategy, IA2030 will be tailored by countries to meet their needs, and revised as new opportunities and challenges emerge.
• Unlike many global plans, IA2030 was developed through a collaborative “bottom up” co-creation process that engaged thousands of stakeholders around the world. This approach has helped ensure it reflects the real needs of countries that face the greatest health inequalities. It also draws on lessons learned from implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (2011-2020) and disease-specific initiatives such as polio and measles eradication efforts.
The Targets
Targets to be achieved by 2030 include:
• Achieving 90% coverage for essential vaccines given in childhood and adolescence
• Halving the number of children completely missing out on vaccines
• Completing 500 national or subnational introductions of new or under-utilized vaccines - such as those for COVID-19, rotavirus, or human papillomavirus (HPV)
OBSERVATION - Sweet smelling autocratic language to force jabs on the world based on WHO’s command and removing any authority from nations or individuals. Combined with the work to modify the WHOs treaty to include a global vax passport mandate indicates the GGR crowd is moving ahead at a faster rate, laying the ground work for its regulatory global oversight.
Wuhan virus –
In September, the Indian journal “Biomedicine” published a so-called study by self-professed “mRNA Alchemist” and biotech engineer Raymond D. Palmer, entitled “Covid 19 vaccines and the misinterpretation of perceived side effects clarity on the safety of vaccines.” The study is presently being hosted on the National Library of Medicine site, which is operated by the U.S. federal government.
While various experts, such as internationally esteemed American cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, have issued warnings about potential downsides of the vaccines, Palmer, an astronomy hobbyist and former realtor, claimed that those wary about the COVID-19 vaccines do not just suffer “a profound lack of scientific and medical training” but are at the root of a great deal of vaccine recipients’ suffering.
Palmer’s paper claimed that various adverse effects that take place “in and around the time of receiving the [COVID-19] vaccine” may result from the “mental stress” generated by concerns about those very vaccines.
OBSERVATION – Many have noted that this is blame shifting onto those suffering reactions – it’s all in your head narrative.
Economy –
Some initial reports from Black Friday have come out. U.S. shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from smartphones to toys.
Online spending rose 2.3% on Black Friday, Adobe Inc’s data and insights arm Adobe Analytics said, thanks to consumers holding out for discounts until the traditionally big shopping days, despite deals starting as early as October.
OBSERVATION – In store sales numbers haven’t been released that I can find. So not sure if online sales will be reflected to instore sales. I know my local Walmart was very empty on Black Friday.
Oil futures and swaps globally are increasingly showing signs of easing supply concerns and resurfaced concerns about further weakness in crude oil demand. So far this month, oil prices have dropped amid growing fears of economic slowdown and spiking Covid infections in China, where some forms of restriction on mobility have returned in nearly 50 large cities. Added to this the opening up the market again to Venezuela increased (SEE Venezuela below) the supply side of the equation – further pressuring downward pressures.
OBSERVATION – Weakness in oil demand is commonly a sign of a recessionary period where business / industrial slowdowns result in less demand for oil and related products. China’s wuhan woes is one big driver in this arena. However, the market is still very volatile and suspectable to unforeseen disruptions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Republicans are wasting no time to get their agenda underway as they prepare to take control of the lower chamber, alerting at least 42 officials in the Biden administration that they will be expected to testify in a slew of GOP-led investigations early next year.
OBSERVATION – Great, lots of investigations that will get no coverage by the MSM and that will go nowhere as the biden regime will not follow up on any wrong doings identified by such. An exercise in futility in large part, but in part may serve to force biden onto the defensive and divert efforts to push Marxist / progressive agenda items.
Evidence of republican civil war is breaking out over McCarthy’s bid to become the next Speaker of the House. McCarthy’s bid is at risk of falling apart due to insufficient support from his conference. This may result in multiple votes, something that hasn’t happened in nearly 100 years.
McCarthy launched his effort to be House speaker earlier this month in a closed-ballot vote by his conference. At the time, he only earned 188 of the 218 votes necessary to become speaker, with 31 votes going to his surprise challenger: House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ). Biggs is one of the dozens of Republicans who have refused to support McCarthy’s speakership bid.
The floor vote for House speaker will be held on Jan. 3, just ahead of the start of the new Congress. While 218 votes equal a majority in the lower chamber, McCarthy only needs to win a majority of the votes from lawmakers on the floor.
House rules state that if GOP lawmakers who do not support McCarthy’s bid simply vote “present,” the final number needed to win the majority is lowered — providing him a path to victory.
OBSERVATION - Repercussions towards those who are opposing McCarthy are already rippling through the caucus. Conservative rule changes are being quickly tossed out by the eGOP moderates and a status quo operating plan moving forward. eGOP view the loss of a much larger majority a ‘win’ over Trump and his influence on the party (only eGOP can view a loss as a ‘win’).
Democrats are scrambling to pass big-spending, progressive bills before they lose full control over the legislative branch.
On November 13, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she wants to see Congress approve a debt ceiling increase in the upcoming “lame duck” session. “We want to see the debt ceiling get done. If it got done in the lame duck, that would be great, as far as I’m concerned,” Yellen said to reporters at the G20 summit meetings in Bali, Indonesia, according to US News.
“This economic scenario is cataclysmic… The downturn would be comparable to that suffered during the financial crisis” of 2008, said a report by Moody’s Analytics which predicted failure to raise the ceiling could wipe out $15 trillion in wealth and cost as many as 6 million jobs.
Schumer last week said that he wants to “get a debt ceiling done in this work period,” but acknowledged that it would be virtually impossible without bipartisan support. On the same day, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told reporters that he didn’t think Congress would work on the debt ceiling until “sometime next year.”
OBSERVATION – Tons of democrat pork are on the line. The ‘must pass’ nature of any debt ceiling increase makes is a lot easier for democrats to slip in other unrelated items and the pressure to pass the bill makes it hard to stop those amendments.
China –
After yesterday’s fire in a high-rise building in Urumqi, which killed at least 10 people due to lockdown measures, people in China are now breaking down gates and other obstacles that have been keeping them locked-up for months. Reports said that emergency workers took three hours to extinguish the blaze — a delay the public has attributed to obstacles caused by coronavirus curbs.
Social media users speculated that residents struggled to escape in time because the building was partially locked down. Some residents elsewhere in the city have had their doors chained physically shut.
Protests triggered by the deaths sprung up all over China in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Urumqi, Zhengzhou and Anhui province to name a few. Hundreds of students from Beijing’s elite Tsinghua University protested against COVID lockdowns on Sunday, holding up signs at the entrance of the university’s canteen, AFP news agency reported, citing witnesses. Observers were surprised by the numbers that turned out so quickly to protest the zero wuhan China policies.
The government appears to have drastically underestimated growing discontent towards the zero-Covid approach - a policy inextricably linked to Mr Xi, who recently pledged there would be no swerving from the policy. What’s more, there is no easy way out of the corner the Party appears to have painted itself into.
In response, authorities in China’s western Xinjiang region opened up some neighborhoods
China as a whole reported a fourth straight daily record of 39,791 new COVID-19 infections on Saturday, of which 3,709 were symptomatic and 36,082 were asymptomatic.
Zero-COVID emergency facility meant to house (detain) up to 20,000 in Tianhe District, Guangzhou next to the Guangdong Olympic Center Stadium. There are videos circulating on social media of other facilities, some meant for up to 80,000 ppl.
OBSERVATION – Xi is in a deep hole with his continued zero wuhan policy, and it seems he is willing to dig it deeper. These protests do not threaten his continued leadership at this stage, but do undermine social stability and popular support needed for his bigger goal – military growth and conquest of Taiwan. Chinese are tired of three years of lockdowns and other stresses to their lives.
Chinese economic impacts are also rippling across the globe due to these recent lockdown responses to record wuhan infection reports. Global oil prices are dropping due to perceived weakness in the Chinese market.
North/South Korea –
North Korean scientists have made a “wonderful leap forward in the development of the technology of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles,” Kim said, without elaborating.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country’s ultimate goal is to possess the world’s most powerful nuclear force, as he promoted dozens of military officers involved in the recent launch of North Korea’s largest ballistic missile, state media reported on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – Much of this is rhetoric for NK public consumption. NK doesn’t have the financial support to create a nuclear force comparable to the US. If it has successfully miniaturized nuke warheads to fit on its missiles it becomes a regional threat though and a limited threat to the US mainland via its recently tested ICBM capable rocket.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Logistics –
- Growing evidence Russian forces are likely using inert (nuke warheads removed) Kh-55 cruise missiles in their massive missile strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, further highlighting the depletion of the Russian military’s high-precision weapons arsenal.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Rumors that an additional mobilization is in the forecast.
- Growing evidence that Russia is relying more and more on essentially human wave attacks reminiscent of WW2 battles.
Economic Impact –
- An investigation by Forbes’ Ukrainian service revealed the extent of the financial strains that the war in Ukraine has imposed on Russia’s annual budget. Forbes found that Russia has spent $82 billion in the first nine months of the war in Ukraine. This amount exceeds the normal army budget for the year alone.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Battles in the Bahkmut and Donetsk areas continue with no significant changes reported.
Russian shelling was also reduced yesterday with it mostly more sporadic in all impacted areas, Sporadic intensive phases occurred in some southeast regions. The Sumy region in the north also witnessed some intensive phases.
Deteriorating weather conditions appear to have served to limit artillery as well as air support on both sides.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian attacks in Bilohorivka, Maryinka, Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne of Donetsk Oblast towards Silversk. Reportedly repelled by Ukraine.
Donetsk Oblast ——
The area around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar in south-central Donetsk Oblast has been the scene of intense combat over the last two weeks, though little territory has changed hands. Both Russia and Ukraine have significant forces committed to this sector, with Russian Naval Infantry having suffered heavy casualties.
However, Russia is unlikely to be able to concentrate sufficient quality forces to achieve an operational breakthrough.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
As noted above, intense Russian artillery strikes in the Kherson area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
No significant changes in current situation on the ground. Poor weather conditions and associated mud are likely to inhibit operations by both sides over the near future.
Force buildups in the of Pavlivka and Vuhledar suggest an attempt to force a south to north pincer move by Russia in order to enclose most of the remaining Donbas region. Such an offensive would lack any supporting attack from the north towards the south. However, Russia lacks the trained and equipped forces necessary for such a maneuver. Meanwhile, it is being reported that Russian forces in this sector have been taking heavy losses, further reducing Russian capabilities for an offensive.
Russia appears to have taken a pause in its strategic attacks on the Ukrainian power grid. This may be due to several factors – global pushback on the overt attempt to harm the Ukrainian people, lack of guided munitions to locally overwhelm air defenses and even potentially receiving signals that further prosecution of these attacks may bring NATO into a deeper and potentially more dangerous role in defending Ukraine. Russia has the capability to launch similar attacks in the future, though it seems to be conserving its munitions for the moment.
Belarus -
Belarussian media has reported that Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei has died “suddenly” at the age of 64.
Trips over the past month to Tehran, Iran, Delhi, India and the CSTO conference in Armenia (3 days ago) showed him in relatively good health.
RUMINT surrounds the discussion that Makei could successfully challenge the current president and that the circumstances surrounding his death have questionable components.
Iran –
Protests against the regime continue across portions of Iran.
Syria -
Turkish Air Force carried out new airstrikes on area of Tell Rifaat (N. Aleppo), under control of SDF/YPG & with Assad’s forces presence. Area from Menagh Airbase & Maaranaz was also bombed.
Turkish warplanes also hit Menag Airport in Aleppo, Syria. Fire erupted at the area.
Reports of ground troops being transported southward on Hwy 214 towards Aleppo
OBSERVATION – Turkish aggression in N Syria could upset the balance of power in the region. It is pressing in on Russian and Iranian influenced areas as well as striking close to US influenced areas. Turkey sees anyone who provides any support to the Kurdish forces in the region as fair game – even though those Kurdish forces have lead efforts to contain ISIS.
Turkey -
See Syria above
Venezuela -
Biden administration on Saturday eased some oil sanctions on Venezuela after the government of Nicolas Maduro and the opposition signed a broad ‘social accord’ to create a UN-administered fund to provide humanitarian aid to the Venezuelan people.
The agreement signed on Saturday in Mexico City by representatives of President Maduro and the opposition — including the faction backed by the United States and led by Juan Guaido — marked the resumption of long-stalled negotiations meant to find a common path out of the South American country’s complex crisis.
The relaxation of curbs on Chevron’s operations in Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, would allow the nation to move towards re-entering global oil markets. International efforts to resolve the Venezuelan crisis have gained strength since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pressure it has placed on global energy supplies.
OBSERVATION – Many question why biden is so gung-ho to open up Venezuela oil, yet is shutting down the US industry. However, this action has contributed to forecasts of surplus oil on the market in the near term – See Economy above.
Maduro’s agreement with the opposition will cement his rule over the country and may bring limited relief to the vast majority of the population that was stuck in the country. US has added stipulations on Maduro stopping human rights violations. Given the spineless biden administration, I expect that Maduro will continue those violations without regard to the agreement.
Central / South America General-
Heavy RUMINT in Brazil that the military may invoke intervention under Article 142 of the Brazilian Constitution, which says that the military has the role of “guaranteeing constitutional powers” under the “supreme authority of the president.” This follows Bolsonaro reported meetings with military leaders.
The widespread protests and calls for the armed forces were an escalation of the Brazilian far-right’s refusal to accept the election of Mr. da Silva, a former president whom many on the right view as a criminal because of his past corruption scandal.
OBSERVATION – BLUF – I don’t see military involvement at this stage. This could be an escalation in the political fight. There are mixed reports that military leaders are split on intervening into the election squabble over a ‘stolen’ election. Brazilian protests are being met with severe, draconian responses from the new leftist govt. And those infraction of civil rights may cause the military to get involved.
I can't believe that our National and Constitutional rights have been systematically been abrogated to an International medical/health organizations
which has systematically and continuously lied to us in the USA, and to the world community,
and has never conducted a independent and realistic investigation into the origins of the covid-19 virus.
The Untied Nations and it's agencies have lost their " raison d'être" - for supposed 'world peace', and now wants world domination and control.
Now the United Nations wants to usurp human rights and now wants to rule and control the world.
When did we vote to surrender our national sovereignty to WHO, an agency of the United Nations, which represents the world health cartel ?
The WHO is attempting to work around via an existing treaty that apparently only needs President approval to implement.
Globalism / Great Reset –
“Words or actions that are disrespectful, racist, discriminatory, hostile, or harassing are not welcome” at Mass General Brigham (MGB), according to a “Patient Code of Conduct” imposed this fall after a year of development.
The code covers not only “physical or verbal threats and assaults” and “sexual or vulgar words or actions,” but also “offensive comments about others’ race, accent, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or other personal traits” or refusal to see staff based on those traits. It frowns on “unwelcome words or actions” as well.
While patients can give their side when accused of violating the code, MGB warns that it may ask them to “make other plans for their care” in response to some violations. They might also be banned from “future non-emergency care ... though we expect this to be rare.”
An advocacy group that fights “woke activists” in medicine warned this month that the code’s failure to define its terms or explain who decides violations raises the likelihood that MGB will “kick non-woke patients to the curb.”
OBSERVATION – Again, GGR ‘woke’ crowd elements working to enforce narrative compliance through denial of health care. This policy may be challenged in courts, but the tide is rising as woke appears to be taking over the medical community. This was very evident (and continues to be) in regards to wuhan and the willingness to deny treatment to non-jabbed (even though it is now proven the jab doesn’t prevent infection or the spread thereof).
Germany has set out its plan to claw back 90% of the earnings from some clean power generators as the government seeks funding for its consumer aid package.
The government is planning to skim earnings above €130 a megawatt-hour for solar, wind and nuclear, according to a draft law seen by Bloomberg News. Politicians are trying to reclaim some of the profits that companies like RWE AG are making from high power prices.
The windfall tax will be applied to electricity producers based on the fuel they use. Lignite plants will be taxed on earnings above €82 a megawatt hour and oil plants above €280. The measures will apply for 10 months, backdated to start of September 2022, until end June 2023 and could be extended to end of 2024.
OBSERVATION – The GGR snake eating its tail. This will surely increase investiment in green, won’t it? Kalifornia was attempting something similar with residential solar. Remember, all new home construction has mandated solar panels installed. Don’t remember if that lead balloon actually flew or was quickly shot down.
Economy –
Still only seeing Black Friday online sales stats – indicating a record level of sales. Brick-and-mortar merchants didn’t see the usual crush of frantic, post-Thanksgiving bargain hunters. Parking lots were easily accessed, and making your way through the mall to the store on your list was apparently hassle-free. And those interminable, miserable check-out lines? Also apparently few and far between compared to past years.
Many shoppers who opened their wallets said their purchases were strategic, not impulsive or splurges.
OBSERVATION – Retail store observations do not bode well for revenues. On-line sales apparently had better pricing than fixed stores and consumers went there with the few dollars they had after inflation. However, this may be offset a little by the numerous pre-Black Friday sales stores have been pushing for the past month in an effort to reduce excessive inventories.
The consumer sentiment index for November had deteriorated less than expected, and was revised to 56.8 from initial projections of 54.7 percent, according to the University of Michigan on Nov. 24. The results were better than most economists’ expectations with the upward revision, but still below October’s reading of 59.9, despite the improved numbers.
“Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June,” said the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu.
About 60 percent of consumers have already scaled back their spending in response to inflation and many are planning to further cut spending over the next 12 months, according to a separate University of Michigan survey. Many respondents said that they were increasingly reluctant to borrow for major purchases, suggesting a sharp decrease in spending, as consumers start to increasingly draw on their savings to pay bills.
About 8 percent of households have reported that they are less likely to purchase items with large price increases over the next year, while another 51 percent of families said they were cutting back on their overall spending.
OBSERVATION – Reflecting the impacts of inflation combined with higher interest rates generated by the Fed. Looking at the tea leaves, it indirectly suggests that recessional pressures are impacting families.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a co-chair of the congressional Problem Solvers Caucus, said congressional intervention in a potentially crippling rail strike “is a last resort.”
He also told “Fox News Sunday” that “Congress will not let this strike happen.”
“So, we’re set to leave Congress on December 15th. Now, the cooling off period for this negotiation is set to end a few days before Christmas.”
“So, congressional intervention is a last resort. I suspect that after we pass the CR (continuing resolution) near December 15th, if that strike has not been averted, we’ll be called back before Christmas.”
The Railway Labor Act authorizes Congress to “avoid any interruption of interstate commerce by providing for the prompt disposition of disputes between carriers and their employees...”
OBSERVATION – Highly optimistic view by the congressman. However, the timing of the congressional recess and the end of the cooling off period will mean that if the strike kicks off, it could take days, even over a week for congress to reconvene, draft and pass legislation to stop the strike. Even a weeks worth of strike will cost the economy probably in the order of tens of billions of dollars. IIRC some estimated about 2 billion per day.
Another 1.8 million chickens were ordered to be culled in Nebraska after agriculture officials analyzed yet another bird flu outbreak on a farm. Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) issued a report, which adds that this is the 13th farm in the state to suffer an outbreak this year. According to the report, 6.8 million birds have been killed in Nebraska - the second-most behind Iowa, which has killed 15.5 million.
CW2/Domestic violence –
FBI Director Christopher Wray said juveniles are contributing to the increase in violent crime from 2020 to 2021.
“There are a few things. First, I would say the traditional drivers are all there, drugs, illegal gun trafficking, gangs, socioeconomic factors. So, those are all still present.”
“But in addition to that, we are seeing, and I hear this from chiefs and sheriffs all the time as well as from our own agents, an alarming uptick in the incidents of juveniles engaging in violence, often graduating from carjackings to even worse violence. And that is a real challenge for the legal system, because we’re not set up to very effectively deal with crimes committed by minors.”
“We are also seeing — not everywhere but an awful lot of places, we are seeing way too many dangerous offenders getting back out on the streets. And the only thing more frustrating to the hardworking men of law enforcement than having to arrest somebody who should have been behind bars is having to arrest the same person over and over again.”
OBSERVATION – Yes, the prosecution of these repeat offenders (along with incarceration there of) is probably the biggest driver of this crime trend. Particularly in blue cities with Soro-backed DA’s and civic leadership running revolving door jails – sending the ferals back on the streets within hours and no bail. Not rocket science. They have no fear of being punishes for their actions and will by nature push to worse and worse crimes and behavior.
China –
The wave of civil disobedience is unprecedented in mainland China since President Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago, as frustration of a billion Chinese mounts over his signature zero-COVID policy nearly three years into the pandemic. China’s zero covid policy has citizens being forced to isolate in their homes for weeks, many lacking food and medicine.
Major protests are growing in Beijing and Shanghai. Protests are also growing on the nation’s university campuses as well.
Chinese protesters have turned to blank sheets of paper to express their anger over COVID-19 restrictions. The blank sheets represent what the protestors want to say but are censored and otherwise denied the ability to say.
Some observers note that there is an apparent morphing of the protests from the wuhan lockdowns to a general rejection of the Xi administration in general, with increased calls for his resignation.
Police have barely been able to keep up with the protests. It is believed that thousands have been arrested so far and that many have been beaten. A high profile senior BBC reporter was beaten and held in confinement for several hours for covering one protest. Chinese officials claimed their actions were to protect him from getting wuhan from the crowds.
The zero COVID measures have been exacting a heavy toll on the world’s second-largest economy. Now combined with civic protests, the situation is generating economic uncertainty on multiple levels.
OBSERVATION – With vast numbers of citizens are chanting anti-CCP and anti-Xi-Jinping slogans, you know things are getting real. Will Xi crack down on the protests, or will he offer concessions? Should he choose to crack down, then the likelihood of economic tremors reaching beyond the Chinese borders grow – creating supply chain breakdowns, shortages, etc. Increasingly brutal repression, punishment and lockdowns, risks changing the populace’s understanding of the social contract in a destabilizing dynamic, generating more protests.
But offering concessions opens the door to demands for further concessions, and this path is an equally destabilizing dynamic of more protests.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Mobilized Russians in Sverdlovsk region of Russia are reportedly suffering from a mass outbreak of infectious diseases, but doctors are unable to treat them due to a lack of equipment and medicine. This is likely the result of overcrowded, insanitary conditions at their training area.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
RUMINT –
Energoatom head - Russian forces may be preparing to withdraw from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, occupied since March. Petro Kotin, president of Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator Energoatom, told the Ukraine TV show TSN that Russians could transfer control of the plant to the International Atomic Energy Agency, although he provided no timeline.
“It looks like they’re packing and stealing whatever they can find,” Kotin said.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Unconfirmed reports of some minor Russian advances. Bakhmut continues to hold despite the most significant pressure from Russian forces in several directions.
Shelling elsewhere was mostly more sporadic yesterday. Shelling exchanges continued sporadically north of Kherson.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Silversk – Kreminna defensive line
Donetsk Oblast ——
NSR
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Russian’s have established a layered defensive on the left (eastern) Dnipir River region of occupied Kherson Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military leadership views the prospect of a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River as a serious threat. Such a counteroffensive would likely target Crimea as a strategic goal.
As noted above, Russian artillery strikes continued in the Kherson area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
The daily pattern continues to remain the same as for weeks now. Russian attacks Bakhmut and Donetsk areas to little or no avail.
Ukraine appears to be in a bit of a tactical pause following liberation of Kherson west of the Dnipir.
Weather conditions are hampering operations on both sides.
One very noticeable thing is the substantial decrease in Russian artillery fire. As Ive noted before, this is a combination of loss of ammo dumps, and the loss of artillery pieces due to Ukraine strikes or failure of gun components. This is one of the major reasons Russia has not been able to muster much of an offensive – even localized. Their doctrine emphasizes massive artillery fires to cover attacks. They just don’t have the desired superiority any more. Even their priorities - Bakhmut and Donetsk, are only receiving a fraction of the support they once could muster.
Pakistan -
Ousted PM calls off march on Islamabad to avoid further chaos but continues to press for early elections, possibly by pulling his PTI party out of regional assemblies
Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan told tens of thousands of supporters on Saturday that he would fight until his “last drop of blood” in his first public address since being shot in an assassination attempt this month. Saturday’s rally was the climax of a so-called “long march” by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to press the government to call a snap election before parliament’s term expires in October next year.
Khan said on Saturday he was calling off his protest march to Islamabad because he feared it would cause havoc in the country. The protests were to culminate in a march to Islamabad which threatened to worsen political turmoil in the nuclear-armed country, which is also battling an economic crisis.
“I have decided not to go to Islamabad because I know there will be havoc and the loss will be to the country,” Khan told a gathering of thousands of supporters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near the capital, Islamabad.
OBSERVATION – Looks like Khan is stepping back a bit from his push to be restored as PM. He may be assessing that he doesn’t have the support he needs and realizes a civil war would not be a good thing. It also doesn’t help when you separate yourself from your supporters with barb wire and all cell phones are jammed.
Iran –
Protests against the regime continue across portions of Iran. The tally of those killed and arrested during the protests is rising. At least 448 people have been killed. More than 18,000 protesters have been arrested. Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that is monitoring the protests, said that Iran is not offering a number of those arrested or who have died.
The members of the Basij, the volunteer paramilitary wing of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, are being praised by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for their efforts in quashing protests. He praised the Basij forces during a televised address on Saturday as dozens of eye doctors warned that there are a rising number of protesters who are being blinded by the violent forces as they break up anti-government protests.
Blinding the protesters is something that is happening regularly, according to a group of ophthalmologists.
In a letter, 140 ophthalmologists raised concerns about a rising number of patients with severe eye injuries resulting from being shot with metal pellets and rubber bullets, according to pro-reform Iranian news site Sobhema and Iran International as well as other sites on social media. “Unfortunately in many cases the hit caused the loss of sight in one or both eyes,” the letter, addressed to the head of the country’s ophthalmologists association, said.
OBSERVATION – Iran is making more martyrs for the cause. The brutality of the regime’s forces is standard practice for many Islamic countries.
Iranian regime and IRGC media channels published a video threatening to attack Azerbaijan using rhetoric similar to that used about Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War.
OBSERVATION – Iran is still looking to pick a fight with Azerbaijan. This on top of the other fights its picking - Kurds, internal protests, Israel, etc.
For you geologists out there, Moa Loa has resumed eruptions, currently confined to the summit caldera but could spread down one of the fracture zones on the flanks. IIRC last eruption was in 1968.
Is Iran the world's worst hellhole?
No, I think there are worse places, but it ranks right up there
A little slow getting this out this morning. Granddaughter needed a little more lap/cuddle time than normal. Doesn’t have me wrapped around her little finger, oh no :)
A busy report today as well.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Senators Klobuchar (D-MN), Cassidy (R-LA), Brown (D-OH), and Markey (D-MA) sent a letter urging Health and Human Services and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to convene the Drug Shortage Task Force and identify causes and potential solutions to the amoxicillin shortage. Amoxicillin is a popular antibiotic drug. The Senators also requested an update from the FDA on steps taken to prevent and mitigate drug shortages.
OBSERVATION - Here is another under the radar effect coming from the GGR crowd as they push to control the medical industry. This has all the trappings of the similar shortage of baby formula (that still isn’t resolved).
The Canadian Paediatric Society (CPS) released a new treatise on this topic called “Medical Assistance in Dying: A Paediatric Perspective.” Here is what is stated as its mission and purpose:
“Ensuring that newborns, children and youth receive the highest possible standard of care as they are dying is a privilege and a responsibility for physicians and allied professionals. Bringing a thoughtful, respectful and personal approach to every end-of-life situation is an essential and evolving duty of care, and the process should meet each patient’s (and family’s) unique social, cultural and spiritual needs.”
OBSERVATION – More and more, the GGR/WEF reveals itself as a death cult. Using Canada as one of its proxies to beta test the plan and get the public to eventually accept the practice. Never forget – they want to eliminate at least 50% of the global population by 2050(?) and the Georgia Guidestones drawdown humanity to 500 million.
The NYT published an article stating that “there is emerging evidence of potential harm from using blockers, according to reviews of scientific papers and interviews with more than 50 doctors and academic experts around the world.” This “emerging evidence” is causing some doctors (especially in Europe) to halt the practice of prescribing these blockers.
OBSERVATION – Again, the population reduction angle by the GGR. When the child gets this surgery and chemicals – they become infertile -no kids – another way of reducting the ‘excess population’. A bonus to the attack on the family and morality.
Wuhan virus –
Fauci’s lies and incompetence being exposed under disposition. We already knew that though.
Economy –
According to a report by the California Department of Food and Agriculture, the driest three-year period on record has resulted in a $3 billion revenue loss for California farmers after a total of 1.3 million acres went unplanted in 2021 and 2022. The Central Valley, which grows about one quarter of all food in the U.S., has experienced the majority of revenue loss. Governor Newsome is considering a push to increase organic farming to 30% of all agricultural production. According to an analysis by ERA Economics, this policy could crash the organic produce market and increase consumer prices.
OBSERVATION – These numbers do not include impacts to agriculture in other states. The last two years with drought and bird flu have hit the industry pretty hard – not to mention the growing impacts from high diesel prices and fertilizer. All this runs down hill to consumers and will maintain the high costs / inflation at the store.
Biden called on Congress to codify without modification or delay the agreement the administration brokered between rail unions and companies in September. In the statement, President Biden warned that attempts to modify the deal in Congress would risk delay and a debilitating shutdown of rail networks. Speaker of the House Representative Pelosi said the House will take up a bill without any changes to the negotiated terms of the agreement this week.
OBSERVATION – Two key items – forcing the agreement pre strike. At this stage, the democrat rhetoric seems very supportive. Second, passing a ‘clean’ bill – one that doesn’t add or subtract from the already negotiated deal – that will be hard for dems to do, but I think they may have the political resolve to pull it off. Even though two years away from the presidential elections, allowing a strike that could devastate the country’s economy to the point that it could still be struggling come Nov 2024 is not palatable for them.
The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said Monday that she didn’t believe inflation in Europe has peaked. According to Lagarde, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to continue raising interest rates in an effort to stave off inflation, currently sitting at 10.6%.
OBSERVATION – The interlinked global economy doesn’t grant the US a free pass on inflation pressures coming from external sources. Uncontrolled inflation in Europe will be reflected in the US on goods / services coming from the EU.
New Jersey-based BlockFi filed for bankruptcy after exposure to FTX led to a liquidity crisis, but said it does not face the ‘myriad issues’ as that exchange. BlockFi also sued a holding company for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to recover shares in Robinhood pledged as collateral three weeks ago.
OBSERVATION – Aftershocks from the FTX disaster continue to ripple around the crypto world. BlockFi is not the only ones facing bankruptcy Serious investigation into FTX will likely be slowed or even blocked because of the links to democrat and republican political powerhouses – and an investigation will reveal just how corrupt the whole system was.
Inflation will likely persist into 2024, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warned on Wednesday, suggesting interest rates could likely surge even higher as the Fed battles rising prices.
“I think we’ll probably have to stay there all during 2023 and into 2024,” Bullard told MarketWatch of high interest rates, estimating they could reach between 5 and 7 percent.
Bullard pointed to low unemployment numbers and indicated the jobs market’s strength would enable the Fed to tackle inflation head on through more rate hikes.
“The fact that the labor market is so strong gives us license to pursue our disinflationary strategy now and try to get the inflation under control now. So we don’t replay the 1970s, where the FOMC at that time took 15 years to get inflation under control,” he said.
OBSERVATION - Continued high fed rates will continue to depress the housing market – a key component who’s growth is necessary to pull out of a recession. A note on the ‘low’ unemployment numbers – remember those numbers have been cooked a while ago to make democrats look better (ie 0bama) and understate the numbers.
IN RELATED - Homebuyers in the United States must earn six-figure salaries in order to afford a median-priced home, according to an analysis from real estate brokerage Redfin.
As housing prices remain elevated and the monthly mortgage payment on the typical home surges more than 45% since the same time last year to reach $2,682, the annual salary required to afford such a property has increased from $73,668 to $107,281. Average hourly wages have nominally increased 5% over the same period as inflation continues to erode consumer purchasing power.
OBSERVATION – I’m no economic guru, but my memory and gut say that it will be years before the ability of Americans to purchase a decent home comes back into balance. Continued fed prime rate increases will continue to keep homes out of reach.
MORE RELATED - Bank of America Corp. chief executive officer Brian Moynihan said activity in the U.S. housing market will probably slow for two years as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, according to an interview Tuesday on CNN.
“This is the toughest thing, because you have to slow down the economy, you have to slow down inflation, and the way you do that is raising interest rates,” Moynihan said, referring to the Fed’s actions. “The intended outcome of their policies doesn’t feel good when you’re trying to buy a home.”
The Fed’s efforts to tame inflation could take about two years, leading to a slowdown in mortgage activity, he said. Rising rents are also going to strain on the finances of Americans who rent their homes, he said.
OBSERVATION – Guess my experience and gut found an ally in Moynihan. This bodes ill for any recession that the fed gets started.
Invasion of Illegals –
The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday is set to consider whether President Joe Biden’s administration can implement guidelines — challenged by two conservative-leaning states — shifting immigration enforcement toward public safety threats in a case testing executive branch power to set enforcement priorities.
The justices will hear the administration’s bid to overturn a judge’s ruling in favor of Texas and Louisiana that vacated U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) guidelines narrowing the scope of those who can be targeted by immigration agents for arrest and deportation.
The Democratic president’s policy departed from the hardline approach of his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, who sought to broaden the range of immigrants subject to arrest and removal. Biden campaigned on a more humane approach to immigration but has been faced with large numbers of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.
OBSERVATION – Even if defeated, it is likely biden et al will just wordsmith the guidelines to just push it outside the court’s decision while retaining the essential core of its policy.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Numbers released Monday show that the FBI ran 192,749 National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background checks on Black Friday 2022.
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) noted that the 192,749 NICS checks on Black Friday 2022 “[rank] it third in the Top 10 Highest Days for NICS checks and…[represent] a 2.8 percent increase from Black Friday 2021.”
OBSERVATION – America continues to arm up as crime skyrockets and the growing willingness of the govt to target citizens of the opposite political spectrum as ‘domestic terrorists’.
RELATED – Reports that number of people routinely carrying loaded handguns for protection had more than doubled in a four-year period. From 2015 to 2019, the number of regularly armed citizens swelled from three million to six million. (The Blaze)
OBSERVATION – The right to protect self, family and friends shall not be infringed.
MORE RELATED - Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) admitted that President Joe Biden has “probably not” secured the needed 60 votes to pass gun control in the lame-duck session of Congress.
OBSERVATION – The democrats gained seats with the midterms. Combined with the turncoat republicans, they could patch a bill together next congress that secures the 60 votes necessary to get around a filibuster. The line will have to be held in the house to prevent such a disaster from reaching biden’s desk.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Reports that Apple is threatening to remove Twitter from its App store. Fireworks at 10, break out the popcorn.
OBSERVATION - Can’t believe Apple would be that stupid – but then again that is based on Before Times thinking. Meanwhile, twitter activity and signups have reached an all time high.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The lame duck congress has the following democrat priorities they are working on before it ends
1. To avoid a government shutdown, Congress must pass a federal funding package by Dec. 16. Some Democrats are considering a week-long continuing resolution.
2. Fiscal Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
3. Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act Republican Maine Sen. Susan Collins’ bill would limit the ability of members of Congress to object to electoral count slates. It raises the threshold necessary for Congress to consider an objection from one representative and one senator to one-fifth of each chamber.
4. Respect for Marriage Act. Some conservatives argue the legislation as written does not provide enough religious liberty protections. Utah Sen. Mike Lee is pushing for an amendment to the legislation, but three Republicans would have to flip their votes to enforce a filibuster.
Biden Energy Department official Sam Brinton, the non-binary drag queen who served as the department’s deputy assistant secretary for spent fuel and waste disposition, was charged with stealing women’s luggage at the Minneapolis airport in September, before taking a leave of absence.
According to a criminal complaint filed on Oct. 26 in Minnesota state court, Brinton while traveling from Washington DC allegedly stole a $2,325 Vera Bradley suitcase from a luggage carousel at the Minneapolis St. Paul Airport on Sept. 16.
OBSERVATION – Unbelievable piece of mindwarped trash controlling our nuclear materials. And yet the senate approved the appointment.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The executive director of the Air Marshal National Council has a message for the Biden administration. She warns that air travel is becoming less safe because air marshals are being diverted to the border.
Sonia Labosco called on the Biden administration to stop sending air marshals to the U.S-Mexico border on Monday. She asked that they be returned to their regular duties patrolling commercial flights. She’s worried about another 9/11 type of terrorist attack.
“We have been decimated. We have been depleted. We’re on less than 1% of flights. These ground-based duties that they’re pulling us out of the sky to go to the border are just demolishing our chances at stopping another 9/11.”
“We actually wrote him another letter over the weekend because we had a level four and a level three incident. Level four means that they tried to breach the cockpit. Level three, we had two of those, which means there were life-threatening behaviors on one of those aircraft. An individual had a straight razor to a passenger’s throat. So these are very serious incidents.”
OBSERVATION – Not surprising that biden et al are letting the ball get dropped on this aspect too. He didn’t care – he was off vacationing, again.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Israel Air Force this week will hold one of its largest drills in years with the United States Air Force simulating offensive strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.
The drill will take place from Tuesday until Thursday over the Mediterranean Sea and Israel. It will include long-range flights such as those that Israeli pilots might need to make in order to reach the Islamic Republic.
The exercise will include refuelers as well as fighter jets from both forces.
OBSERVATION – The proof of the pudding is if biden authorizes this level of support when (not if) Israel has to act to take our Iran’s program.
China –
Protests have died down some in China this past Monday. The regime has launched a cyber counter offensive on some social media platforms when one searches for a Chinese citiy. The search results is flooded by porn and other ‘advertising’ links in order to bury any protest related information.
Police forces in affected cities have slowly forced the protests back to a degree. They have established barriers/fences to keep protestors away from central areas of the city and police began stopping and searching pedestrians in Shanghai and Beijing, although there were no signs of protests on Monday. Police are also searching mobile phones for signs of VPNs and western social media applications like Telegram, which are outlawed in China.
Yesterday, the White House issued a statement on the protests in China: “We’ve long said everyone has the right to peacefully protest, here in the United States and around the world. This includes in the PRC,” a National Security Council spokesperson says.
OBSERVATION – These protests appear not to have any legs and the citizenry are being cowed back into submission as they have been trained to.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen resigned from the head of her ruling party after staggering midterm election losses that put the opposition Kuomintang in charge of 22 municipalities. It was the worst loss for the Democratic Progressive Party in its 36-year history.
OBSERVATION – Tsai has been a hardliner on not holding reunification talks with China. Change in political power may usher in a potential alternative to Chinese military take over. No sign yet of how the Chinese wuhan protests may effect the Taiwanese thinking.
North/South Korea –
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol says if North Korea conducts a new nuclear test Kim Jong Un should expect a response “not seen in the past”. -Reuters
OBSERVATION - Yoon ran as a war hawk in the recent elections and SK’s more aggressive stance and responses to NK provocations to date are evidence he’s for real on that issue. However, this threatens a serious escalation depending on just what that ‘response’ is.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Like yesterday, Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Now confirmed reports of some minor Russian advances. Bakhmut continues to hold despite the most significant pressure from Russian forces in several directions.
Shelling elsewhere was mostly more sporadic yesterday. Shelling exchanges continued sporadically north of Kherson.
Overnight there were a few missile launches from Belgorod into Ukraine – again primarily targeting power grid related facilities. Some observers note activity at Russian facilities that is similar to those preceding the earlier cruise missile barrages that hit Ukraine in past weeks.
Explosions were reported in Henichesk and Skadovsk of occupied Kherson Oblast, likely HIMARS action. Both strikes show that the main supply route into Ukraine proper from Crimea via the narrow land bridge is very vulnerable.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Silversk – Kreminna defensive line
Donetsk Oblast ——
NSR
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Russian’s have established a layered defensive on the left (eastern) Dnipir River region of occupied Kherson Oblast. OSINT and other analysts looking at open source satellite imagery suggest that the defenses are poorly designed and laid out. They seem to focus on fighting the way Russia has been fighting – run straight down a road and frontal assaults. These strong points are not mutually supporting and there are large gaps between them that Ukraine can (and has in the past) exploited to maneuver around Russian positions and cut them off. Time will tell just what will happen.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Battles around Bahkmut and Donetsk to continue. Russia will expend a lot of forces and equipment on tactically and strategically insignificant battles. The only ones potentially benefitting from this blood bath is Wagner Group mercenaries – by being able to claim (exaggerated) ‘victories’ around Bahkmut.
I expect another round of cruise/ballistic missile fire across Ukraine in the near future. However, those attacks may have triggered a western response to provide longer range munitions.
The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.
Boeing’s proposed system, dubbed Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), is one of about a half-dozen plans for getting new munitions into production for Ukraine and America’s Eastern European allies, industry sources said.
Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB’s 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.
GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.
OBSERVATION – Deeper penetration into Russian rear areas with a guided munition. It was my private thought that US could use the power grid attacks as justification for ATACMS systems. These smaller, less expensive but accurate rockets could fit the bill.
Poland -
Polish defense officials have requested Patriot air defense batteries offered by Germany to bolster polish air defenses be sent to Ukraine instead. Polish President Andrzej Duda said the request made sense from a “military point of view” that the missiles be placed in Ukraine, as that positioning would enable them to protect “Ukraine and Poland most effectively.”
OBSERVATION – The plan would be to train Ukrainians to run the systems. But if placed in Ukraine would potentially cause Russia to escalate attacks.
Pakistan –
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, announced Monday that they are withdrawing from a months-long ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani government.
The TTP is an umbrella group of Pakistani tribesmen that control the lawless regions along Pakistan’s Afghan border. They have traditional ties with the country’s intelligence service, and elements within the government and military are known to be sympathetic to their cause. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country, with a history of nuclear proliferation, on the brink of a financial crisis led by a caretaker government fighting two separate armed insurgencies. The deposed former Prime Minister is currently agitating for new elections, despite an assassination attempt in early November. The security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could soon be a growing concern for Washington D.C. (FO)
OBSERVATION – As FO notes, security of the nuclear arsenal is of great concern.
Israel –
See Strategic Activity / Deployments above for practice run to take out Iran’s nuke program.
Iran –
Protests continue.
In a warning, NATO says that Iran and the rest of the countries should not provide Russia with drones and other weapons.
OBSERVATION – This is likely a precursor of the EU instituting new sanctions on Iran. Analysis of parts from shot down drones shows that Iran has been obtaining western materials for their construction – those sources may well be close to being shut down soon.
Syria -
Erdogan has now announced that the air strikes were only the beginning and that he is preparing to launch a land operation when the time is right. -
“We are continuing the air operation,” he said in a speech to his AK party members in parliament, “and will come down hard on the terrorists from land, at the most convenient time for us.”
He asserts that Turkey is more determined than ever to secure its southern border by seizing a “security corridor” running along it west to east – territory that is nominally part of sovereign Syria. “We have formed part of this corridor,” he announced, and “will take care of it starting with places such as Tal Rifaat, Manbij and Ayn al-Arab (Kobane), which are the sources of trouble.”
OBSERVATION – Turkey seized a chunk of this ‘security corridor’ a couple years ago. Now it appears Turkey is poised to attempt to capture more territory – designed to create a buffer zone between the Kurd dominated regions in Syria (and probably eventually Iraq). There is danger if those plans head into US occupied areas of Syrian oilfields.
Turkey -
See Syria for latest attacks in the northern part of the country.
Misc of Note -
Measles vaccinations steadily declined during the COVID pandemic, and that leaves 40 million children worldwide “dangerously susceptible” to infection, according to a joint publication by the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The report says 22 countries experienced “large and disruptive” measles outbreaks in 2021, when an estimated 9 million cases caused some 128,000 deaths worldwide.
OBSERVATION – Don’t necessarily want to start a new generic medical category, but with the CDC and WHO fear mongering it may be hard not to.
Granddaughter’s are important...
Yep. She developed a mild fever over the course of the day so she spent the rest of the day snuggled up sleeping
Globalism / Great Reset –
India will begin testing a retail version of digital Rupee on Thursday. The e-Rupee will come in the same denomination as notes and coins Four banks plan to participate initially; four more to join later.
OBSERVATION – Slightly different approach, rather than completely replacing the currency, India will continue to permit physical currency to exist with the electronic version. The move is designed to condition the peoples attitudes towards digital currency and use.
Norway, Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, announced it would halt oil and gas exploration in untapped areas of its extensive oil and gas fields. The moratorium on exploration will last at least through the current parliament, which ends in 2025. According to Aasland, the decision was part of a minority government budget deal with the opposition Socialist Left Party (SV) in an effort to fight climate change.
OBSERVATION – This is a first step in the effort to eventually kill Norway’s oil and gas industry. With this, the left will continue to force the green energy agenda.
Wuhan virus –
Americans don’t need mandates to keep them safe from COVID, they need information and treatments and aren’t getting them, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force during the Trump administration.
“We’re not giving Americans the tools that they need to protect their families,” Birx told Newsmax’s “National Report.” “Americans are smart. They know what to do. We don’t need mandates. We need knowledge in the communities and access to those tools, which rural America doesn’t have.”
It is not just a matter of vaccines, said Birx, as “rural Americans don’t have access to Paxlovid. Most of them don’t even know that Paxlovid could keep them out of the hospital.”
OBSERVATION – This is rich, coming from one of the chief architects of the national lockdown. Also interesting is how she singles out “rural America” as being in some manner ignorant – “rural America” largely being equivalent to the Red states. Even spreads misinformation – Paxlovid – has reportedly and has been documented as not being effective in nearly all cases after treatment the patient gets hammered a second time.
Economy –
Biden calls on Congress to ratify labor deal reached with railroad unions this fall, saying a fight for more concessions can’t be allowed to happen because it could “hurl this nation into a devastating rail freight shutdown.”
The House is scheduled to consider House Joint Resolution 100 to resolve the current rail labor dispute and Concurrent Resolution 119 to provide paid sick leave for rail workers.
Meanwhile, unions are rejecting biden’s appeal. The National Railway Labor Conference (NRLC) and The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BMWED) apparently have no plans of relenting from its respective bargaining positions — in advance of a potential nationwide railway strike on Dec. 9 — despite President Joe Biden’s calls for Congress to pass legislation that would enforce the tentative rail-labor agreement.
In a joint statement, the NRLC and BMWED didn’t share the Biden administration’s optimism for concocting a labor resolution within the next 10 days.
Congressional legislation regarding a railway strike “denies railroad workers their right to strike while also denying them of the benefit they would likely otherwise obtain if they were not denied their right to strike,” the statement reads.
OBSERVATION – The proverbial slow moving train wreck is still getting closer to happening. These are big democrat supporting unions and with the next national elections being two years out, democrats in congress may be looking to actually stopping the strike and sucking up the short term funds losses in hopes that all will be well in 2024.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has an S&P 500 year-end target of 3,900 for next year, warns corporate America is getting ready to unleash downward earnings revisions that will pummel stocks.
“It’s the path. I mean nobody cares about what’s going to happen in 12 months. They need to deal with the next three to six months,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “That’s where we actually think there’s significant downside. So, while 3,900 sounds like a really boring six months. No... it’s going to be a wild ride.”
Wilson, who serves as the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, believes the S&P could drop as much as 24% from Tuesday’s close in early 2023.
OBSERVATION – Another big money analyst seeing economic woe in the coming months.
U.S. consumer confidence fell for the second straight month in November amid ongoing high inflation, rising interest rates, and layoffs in the tech sector.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 100.2 this month, down from 102.2 in October. November’s figure is the lowest since July, and likely reflected an uptick in gas prices earlier this fall, said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. The data indicate Americans are taking a more gloomy view about the economy. Before the pandemic, the index regularly topped 120.
OBSERVATION – Tea reading by the Fed misses what is actually being experienced by the people.
A proposed rule advanced by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is aimed at stifling methane releases from oil and gas wells on public land. A similar rule imposed during the Obama administration was tossed by a Federal court. The new rule is bolstered by the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires companies to pay royalties on all gas that is extracted, even if deliberately vented or burned off. The rule will require energy companies to spend an estimated $121.9 million annually to upgrade equipment and detect leaks. (FO)
OBSERVATION – More easter eggs from the so called “Inflation Reduction Act” that will actually increase natural gas and oil prices. The rule will likely be challenged in court and it remains to be seen if the wording in the “Inflation Reduction Act” will provide enough justification to avoid it being tossed out again.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s rented Secret Service vehicles burst into flames in a parking lot Monday, just one day after he left his Nantucket vacation.
Biden spent Thanksgiving on the ritzy Massachusetts island with his family last week. The Secret Service rented five vehicles from Hertz to carry the president and his family, and all five of them caught fire in the parking lot, according to footage first obtained by the Nantucket Current.
The cause of the blaze remains under investigation, but one of the vehicles - a Ford Expedition- was under a safety recall by the manufacturer due to a faulty battery junction box that has caused fires. While it had been scheduled for service under the recall, sources said, it had not been repaired.
OBSERVATION – The level of weird timing surrounding this report pegged the meter. I first attributed initial reports to some wackos. Have to wait on the investigation results – but it seems that nothing nefarious was done by anyone.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Republican Montana attorney general Austin Knudsen alleges that new shipping guidelines allow UPS and FedEx “to track firearm sales with unprecedented specificity and bypass warrant requirements to share that information with federal agencies.” The letter, signed by Knudsen and 16 other state attorneys general, says the altered shipping guidelines force licensed firearm dealers into providing detailed information about purchasers who are receiving items through the mail.
By requiring firearms dealers to provide an unprecedented level of information about their clients, the shipping companies may be giving “federal agencies a workaround to normal warrant requirements,” the letter states. This ultimately allows them “to provide information at will or upon request to federal agencies—information detailing which Americans are buying what guns.” The state officials are asking UPS and FedEx to provide them with information about any recent rule changes and disclose any role the federal government played in the matter.
OBSERVATION – Love our kick arse State AG. The swamp has accelerated its collection of information on the citizens. The key item is correct – they are developing a work around the law. When the govt does that, it is clear that they do not have good intentions. Just like the way they are using the USPS to directly spy on citizens – skirting the law.
BTW – private sales of ammo being shipped are ‘disappearing’ on a regular basis via these shippers as well. Tells you just who’s side they are on.
ALSO – I strongly suspect that the govt already has a substantial database of gun owners in the US, created via many other available backdoor means. More data means more eventual targets.
Recently, the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, chaired by Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) released the report “The Rising Threat of Domestic Terrorism.” The chief concern? White supremacist groups. The fourth paragraph of the Executive Summary reads:
“Since 2019, DHS and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have repeatedly identified domestic terrorism, in particular white supremacist violence, as the most persistent and lethal terrorist threat to the homeland, including in multiple threat alerts provided to Congress and law enforcement agencies across the country. Despite this acknowledgement (sic) and multiple analyses, plans, and National Strategies across multiple Administrations, this investigation found that the federal government has continued to allocate resources disproportionately aligned to international terrorist threats over domestic terrorist threats.”
OBSERVATION – A continuation of trying to paint the situation as dire. It further keeps the fire going for what I suspect will be an eventually govt crackdown on conservatives. Absent of course is the very active danger presented by Antifa – but they’ve waved that a way by defining it as an idea and not an actual organization.
(AP) Supervisors in San Francisco voted Tuesday to give city police the ability to use potentially lethal, remote-controlled robots in emergency situations — following an emotionally charged debate that reflected divisions on the politically liberal board over support for law enforcement.
The vote was 8-3, with the majority agreeing to grant police the option despite strong objections from civil liberties and other police oversight groups. Opponents said the authority would lead to the further militarization of a police force already too aggressive with poor and minority communities.
Supervisor Connie Chan, a member of the committee that forwarded the proposal to the full board, said she understood concerns over use of force but that “according to state law, we are required to approve the use of these equipments. So here we are, and it’s definitely not a easy discussion.”
The San Francisco Police Department said it does not have pre-armed robots and has no plans to arm robots with guns. But the department could deploy robots equipped with explosive charges “to contact, incapacitate, or disorient violent, armed, or dangerous suspect” when lives are at stake, SFPD spokesperson Allison Maxie said in a statement
OBSERVATION - Interesting move by liberal SF and police. Has all sorts of apocalyptic connotations.
Meanwhile, Antifa et al, continues to support a variety of social causes ranging from pro-abortion, pro-LGBT, and pro-radical environmentalism events. No major social/political events to stir them into violence.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter has stopped enforcing its COVID-19 “misleading information” policy that had resulted in nearly 100,000 pieces of content being cut from the platform and led to more than 11,000 account suspensions.
OBSERVATION – misinformation – the left’s definition of facts that are contrary to their propaganda/narrative. Enjoyable to continue to watch lefties on FB melt down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The U.S. Senate passed the Respect for Marriage Act on Tuesday in a bipartisan vote of 61 to 36, which will require the federal government to recognize all marriages, including same-sex marriages, that are legal in the state where they took place.
The measure will now move to the House, where it is expected to pass in the final days of a Democratic-controlled chamber before making its way to the White House for President Joe Biden’s signature.
A handful of GOP senators, including Roy Blunt, Richard Burr, Shelley Moore Capito, Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Cynthia Lummis, Lisa Murkowski, Rob Portman, Mitt Romney, Dan Sullivan, Thom Tillis and Todd Young, earlier this month helped the bill clear a first procedural hurdle. The same 12 Republicans propelled the legislation across the finish line Tuesday.
OBSERVATION – 12 RINOs sided with this extremely leftist bill. Expect these 12 to continue to side with democrats during the next term. Passage of this bill guarantees that religious organizations will come under withering attacks to either bend the knee to LGBT et al causes or face never ending lawsuits.
China –
After what appeared to be a pause in protests overnight clashes spread to Guangzhou city.
On November 29, 2022, the USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the South China Sea near the Spratly Islands, consistent with international law. China raised a big stink about the transit, claiming the area as part of its territory.
Japan –
Japan is looking to acquire a “counterstrike capability” to take out enemy missile sites if the country is attacked, the nation’s Ministry of Defense confirmed Tuesday.
A policy document detailing the concept was shown Friday at a meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, the Kyodo news agency reported Saturday, citing an anonymous source with knowledge of the matter.
OBSERVATION – Japan continues to aggressively prepare for an eventual conflict with China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
NUKE WATCH -
Moscow has postponed a round of nuclear arms control talks with the United States set for this week because of stark differences in approach and tensions over Ukraine, a senior Russian diplomat said Tuesday.
Logistics –
- More and more outdated tanks and armored vehicles are being used by Russian forces as more modern equipment is being destroyed or captured in combat.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Speculation is mounting that Russia could soon try to mobilize men in the occupied part of Kherson, in southern Ukraine.
- Putin says Russia may need to mobilize five million men in order to defeat Ukraine. That is considered impossible unless Russia can carry out a mobilization on the scale of the mobilization carried out after the Germans invaded in 1941.
- Russia is having difficulties filling key positions as it tries to rebuild an armor corps decimated from combat. Lack of officers and skilled armor/tank crews lead the shortages.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Like yesterday, Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Now confirmed reports that Russian forces managed to capture Kurdiumivka.
On the outskirts of Kherson in the village of Pravdyne, a new mass burial of people killed by the Russian military was discovered. The bodies were found with their hands tied and blindfolded. All were shot in the head at close range
NOTE - I haven’t posted much on the war crimes uncovered by Ukraine after liberating Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts – but they are abundant.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Silversk – Kreminna defensive line
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces claimed control over Kurdiumivka about 20 Km south of Bakhmut
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Fuel depot caught fire in Surazh district of Bryansk Oblast after suspected drone attack.
Blackouts in Sudzha and Korenevo districts of Kursk Oblast of Russia as result of shelling at electrical power infrastructure
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Like a stuck record, I see little change from previous days. Intensity of fighting around Bahkmut may lead to some more minor gains by Russia, but would achieve nothing of tactical or strategic significance – other than a PR victory to bleat about in Russia. Piggy backed on this PR would be Wagner Group slamming the MOD because it is getting ‘victories’ and the MOD is withdrawing forces from claimed lands.
Ukraine has diverted some of its long range assets to hit electrical infrastructure in surrounding Russian territory. However, those assets are precious and continued attacks unlikely to be sustained.
Iran –
Protests continue, though at a lower level of intensity as of late.
Syria -
The United States has reduced the number of patrols with the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria because of Turkey’s strikes in the region, the Pentagon says. No U.S. troops redeployed so far ahead of a feared a Turkish ground invasion.
OBSERVATION – Turkey doesn’t care who’s toes they step on. A Turkish invasion will set the ISIS battle back.
Central / South America General-
Argentinean television has revealed new evidence of voting machine fraud in around 280,000 voting machines that were pre-2020 models used in the October 30, 2022, Brazilian Presidental elections. Argentine political consultant Fernando Cerimedo asserted on the program that statistical analysis conclusively shows the result was fraudulent.
OBSERVATION - Turmoil from the last election continues. If these evidences are credible, the chances increase that the military may get involved in some way. Following an audit of the election results, the military concluded that there was a “possible security risk” in the country’s voting system.
Globalism / Great Reset –
India will begin testing a retail version of digital Rupee on Thursday. The e-Rupee will come in the same denomination as notes and coins Four banks plan to participate initially; four more to join later.
OBSERVATION – Slightly different approach, rather than completely replacing the currency, India will continue to permit physical currency to exist with the electronic version. The move is designed to condition the peoples attitudes towards digital currency and use.
Norway, Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, announced it would halt oil and gas exploration in untapped areas of its extensive oil and gas fields. The moratorium on exploration will last at least through the current parliament, which ends in 2025. According to Aasland, the decision was part of a minority government budget deal with the opposition Socialist Left Party (SV) in an effort to fight climate change.
OBSERVATION – This is a first step in the effort to eventually kill Norway’s oil and gas industry. With this, the left will continue to force the green energy agenda.
Wuhan virus –
Americans don’t need mandates to keep them safe from COVID, they need information and treatments and aren’t getting them, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force during the Trump administration.
“We’re not giving Americans the tools that they need to protect their families,” Birx told Newsmax’s “National Report.” “Americans are smart. They know what to do. We don’t need mandates. We need knowledge in the communities and access to those tools, which rural America doesn’t have.”
It is not just a matter of vaccines, said Birx, as “rural Americans don’t have access to Paxlovid. Most of them don’t even know that Paxlovid could keep them out of the hospital.”
OBSERVATION – This is rich, coming from one of the chief architects of the national lockdown. Also interesting is how she singles out “rural America” as being in some manner ignorant – “rural America” largely being equivalent to the Red states. Even spreads misinformation – Paxlovid – has reportedly and has been documented as not being effective in nearly all cases after treatment the patient gets hammered a second time.
Economy –
Biden calls on Congress to ratify labor deal reached with railroad unions this fall, saying a fight for more concessions can’t be allowed to happen because it could “hurl this nation into a devastating rail freight shutdown.”
The House is scheduled to consider House Joint Resolution 100 to resolve the current rail labor dispute and Concurrent Resolution 119 to provide paid sick leave for rail workers.
Meanwhile, unions are rejecting biden’s appeal. The National Railway Labor Conference (NRLC) and The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BMWED) apparently have no plans of relenting from its respective bargaining positions — in advance of a potential nationwide railway strike on Dec. 9 — despite President Joe Biden’s calls for Congress to pass legislation that would enforce the tentative rail-labor agreement.
In a joint statement, the NRLC and BMWED didn’t share the Biden administration’s optimism for concocting a labor resolution within the next 10 days.
Congressional legislation regarding a railway strike “denies railroad workers their right to strike while also denying them of the benefit they would likely otherwise obtain if they were not denied their right to strike,” the statement reads.
OBSERVATION – The proverbial slow moving train wreck is still getting closer to happening. These are big democrat supporting unions and with the next national elections being two years out, democrats in congress may be looking to actually stopping the strike and sucking up the short term funds losses in hopes that all will be well in 2024.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has an S&P 500 year-end target of 3,900 for next year, warns corporate America is getting ready to unleash downward earnings revisions that will pummel stocks.
“It’s the path. I mean nobody cares about what’s going to happen in 12 months. They need to deal with the next three to six months,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “That’s where we actually think there’s significant downside. So, while 3,900 sounds like a really boring six months. No... it’s going to be a wild ride.”
Wilson, who serves as the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, believes the S&P could drop as much as 24% from Tuesday’s close in early 2023.
OBSERVATION – Another big money analyst seeing economic woe in the coming months.
U.S. consumer confidence fell for the second straight month in November amid ongoing high inflation, rising interest rates, and layoffs in the tech sector.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 100.2 this month, down from 102.2 in October. November’s figure is the lowest since July, and likely reflected an uptick in gas prices earlier this fall, said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. The data indicate Americans are taking a more gloomy view about the economy. Before the pandemic, the index regularly topped 120.
OBSERVATION – Tea reading by the Fed misses what is actually being experienced by the people.
A proposed rule advanced by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is aimed at stifling methane releases from oil and gas wells on public land. A similar rule imposed during the Obama administration was tossed by a Federal court. The new rule is bolstered by the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires companies to pay royalties on all gas that is extracted, even if deliberately vented or burned off. The rule will require energy companies to spend an estimated $121.9 million annually to upgrade equipment and detect leaks. (FO)
OBSERVATION – More easter eggs from the so called “Inflation Reduction Act” that will actually increase natural gas and oil prices. The rule will likely be challenged in court and it remains to be seen if the wording in the “Inflation Reduction Act” will provide enough justification to avoid it being tossed out again.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s rented Secret Service vehicles burst into flames in a parking lot Monday, just one day after he left his Nantucket vacation.
Biden spent Thanksgiving on the ritzy Massachusetts island with his family last week. The Secret Service rented five vehicles from Hertz to carry the president and his family, and all five of them caught fire in the parking lot, according to footage first obtained by the Nantucket Current.
The cause of the blaze remains under investigation, but one of the vehicles - a Ford Expedition- was under a safety recall by the manufacturer due to a faulty battery junction box that has caused fires. While it had been scheduled for service under the recall, sources said, it had not been repaired.
OBSERVATION – The level of weird timing surrounding this report pegged the meter. I first attributed initial reports to some wackos. Have to wait on the investigation results – but it seems that nothing nefarious was done by anyone.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Republican Montana attorney general Austin Knudsen alleges that new shipping guidelines allow UPS and FedEx “to track firearm sales with unprecedented specificity and bypass warrant requirements to share that information with federal agencies.” The letter, signed by Knudsen and 16 other state attorneys general, says the altered shipping guidelines force licensed firearm dealers into providing detailed information about purchasers who are receiving items through the mail.
By requiring firearms dealers to provide an unprecedented level of information about their clients, the shipping companies may be giving “federal agencies a workaround to normal warrant requirements,” the letter states. This ultimately allows them “to provide information at will or upon request to federal agencies—information detailing which Americans are buying what guns.” The state officials are asking UPS and FedEx to provide them with information about any recent rule changes and disclose any role the federal government played in the matter.
OBSERVATION – Love our kick arse State AG. The swamp has accelerated its collection of information on the citizens. The key item is correct – they are developing a work around the law. When the govt does that, it is clear that they do not have good intentions. Just like the way they are using the USPS to directly spy on citizens – skirting the law.
BTW – private sales of ammo being shipped are ‘disappearing’ on a regular basis via these shippers as well. Tells you just who’s side they are on.
ALSO – I strongly suspect that the govt already has a substantial database of gun owners in the US, created via many other available backdoor means. More data means more eventual targets.
Recently, the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, chaired by Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) released the report “The Rising Threat of Domestic Terrorism.” The chief concern? White supremacist groups. The fourth paragraph of the Executive Summary reads:
“Since 2019, DHS and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have repeatedly identified domestic terrorism, in particular white supremacist violence, as the most persistent and lethal terrorist threat to the homeland, including in multiple threat alerts provided to Congress and law enforcement agencies across the country. Despite this acknowledgement (sic) and multiple analyses, plans, and National Strategies across multiple Administrations, this investigation found that the federal government has continued to allocate resources disproportionately aligned to international terrorist threats over domestic terrorist threats.”
OBSERVATION – A continuation of trying to paint the situation as dire. It further keeps the fire going for what I suspect will be an eventually govt crackdown on conservatives. Absent of course is the very active danger presented by Antifa – but they’ve waved that a way by defining it as an idea and not an actual organization.
(AP) Supervisors in San Francisco voted Tuesday to give city police the ability to use potentially lethal, remote-controlled robots in emergency situations — following an emotionally charged debate that reflected divisions on the politically liberal board over support for law enforcement.
The vote was 8-3, with the majority agreeing to grant police the option despite strong objections from civil liberties and other police oversight groups. Opponents said the authority would lead to the further militarization of a police force already too aggressive with poor and minority communities.
Supervisor Connie Chan, a member of the committee that forwarded the proposal to the full board, said she understood concerns over use of force but that “according to state law, we are required to approve the use of these equipments. So here we are, and it’s definitely not a easy discussion.”
The San Francisco Police Department said it does not have pre-armed robots and has no plans to arm robots with guns. But the department could deploy robots equipped with explosive charges “to contact, incapacitate, or disorient violent, armed, or dangerous suspect” when lives are at stake, SFPD spokesperson Allison Maxie said in a statement
OBSERVATION - Interesting move by liberal SF and police. Has all sorts of apocalyptic connotations.
Meanwhile, Antifa et al, continues to support a variety of social causes ranging from pro-abortion, pro-LGBT, and pro-radical environmentalism events. No major social/political events to stir them into violence.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter has stopped enforcing its COVID-19 “misleading information” policy that had resulted in nearly 100,000 pieces of content being cut from the platform and led to more than 11,000 account suspensions.
OBSERVATION – misinformation – the left’s definition of facts that are contrary to their propaganda/narrative. Enjoyable to continue to watch lefties on FB melt down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The U.S. Senate passed the Respect for Marriage Act on Tuesday in a bipartisan vote of 61 to 36, which will require the federal government to recognize all marriages, including same-sex marriages, that are legal in the state where they took place.
The measure will now move to the House, where it is expected to pass in the final days of a Democratic-controlled chamber before making its way to the White House for President Joe Biden’s signature.
A handful of GOP senators, including Roy Blunt, Richard Burr, Shelley Moore Capito, Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Cynthia Lummis, Lisa Murkowski, Rob Portman, Mitt Romney, Dan Sullivan, Thom Tillis and Todd Young, earlier this month helped the bill clear a first procedural hurdle. The same 12 Republicans propelled the legislation across the finish line Tuesday.
OBSERVATION – 12 RINOs sided with this extremely leftist bill. Expect these 12 to continue to side with democrats during the next term. Passage of this bill guarantees that religious organizations will come under withering attacks to either bend the knee to LGBT et al causes or face never ending lawsuits.
China –
After what appeared to be a pause in protests overnight clashes spread to Guangzhou city.
On November 29, 2022, the USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the South China Sea near the Spratly Islands, consistent with international law. China raised a big stink about the transit, claiming the area as part of its territory.
Japan –
Japan is looking to acquire a “counterstrike capability” to take out enemy missile sites if the country is attacked, the nation’s Ministry of Defense confirmed Tuesday.
A policy document detailing the concept was shown Friday at a meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, the Kyodo news agency reported Saturday, citing an anonymous source with knowledge of the matter.
OBSERVATION – Japan continues to aggressively prepare for an eventual conflict with China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
NUKE WATCH -
Moscow has postponed a round of nuclear arms control talks with the United States set for this week because of stark differences in approach and tensions over Ukraine, a senior Russian diplomat said Tuesday.
Logistics –
- More and more outdated tanks and armored vehicles are being used by Russian forces as more modern equipment is being destroyed or captured in combat.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Speculation is mounting that Russia could soon try to mobilize men in the occupied part of Kherson, in southern Ukraine.
- Putin says Russia may need to mobilize five million men in order to defeat Ukraine. That is considered impossible unless Russia can carry out a mobilization on the scale of the mobilization carried out after the Germans invaded in 1941.
- Russia is having difficulties filling key positions as it tries to rebuild an armor corps decimated from combat. Lack of officers and skilled armor/tank crews lead the shortages.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Like yesterday, Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Now confirmed reports that Russian forces managed to capture Kurdiumivka.
On the outskirts of Kherson in the village of Pravdyne, a new mass burial of people killed by the Russian military was discovered. The bodies were found with their hands tied and blindfolded. All were shot in the head at close range
NOTE - I haven’t posted much on the war crimes uncovered by Ukraine after liberating Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts – but they are abundant.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Silversk – Kreminna defensive line
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces claimed control over Kurdiumivka about 20 Km south of Bakhmut
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Fuel depot caught fire in Surazh district of Bryansk Oblast after suspected drone attack.
Blackouts in Sudzha and Korenevo districts of Kursk Oblast of Russia as result of shelling at electrical power infrastructure
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Like a stuck record, I see little change from previous days. Intensity of fighting around Bahkmut may lead to some more minor gains by Russia, but would achieve nothing of tactical or strategic significance – other than a PR victory to bleat about in Russia. Piggy backed on this PR would be Wagner Group slamming the MOD because it is getting ‘victories’ and the MOD is withdrawing forces from claimed lands.
Ukraine has diverted some of its long range assets to hit electrical infrastructure in surrounding Russian territory. However, those assets are precious and continued attacks unlikely to be sustained.
Iran –
Protests continue, though at a lower level of intensity as of late.
Syria -
The United States has reduced the number of patrols with the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria because of Turkey’s strikes in the region, the Pentagon says. No U.S. troops redeployed so far ahead of a feared a Turkish ground invasion.
OBSERVATION – Turkey doesn’t care who’s toes they step on. A Turkish invasion will set the ISIS battle back.
Central / South America General-
Argentinean television has revealed new evidence of voting machine fraud in around 280,000 voting machines that were pre-2020 models used in the October 30, 2022, Brazilian Presidental elections. Argentine political consultant Fernando Cerimedo asserted on the program that statistical analysis conclusively shows the result was fraudulent.
OBSERVATION - Turmoil from the last election continues. If these evidences are credible, the chances increase that the military may get involved in some way. Following an audit of the election results, the military concluded that there was a “possible security risk” in the country’s voting system.
New Bluetooth mouse seems to be causing double clicks. A minor pain at times.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Musk says wireless device developed by his brain chip company Neuralink to begin human trials in about 6 months
OBSERVATION – Musk is chaoic to say the least. Love what he’s doing to the libs at twitter, yet OTOH assisting the WEF/GGR their goals. Neural technology has been touted by the WEF this year as movement towards its stated transhumanism goals.
The DOT is submitting a new plan that would require all commercial motor vehicles to be equipped with electronic tracking devices. The plan comes from a Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration agenda, and claims the program would prevent car accidents by identifying “higher risk” vehicles on the road.
OBSERVATION - This permits a govt official to monitor in real time truck movements. Various constitutional concerns are evident – such as 4th amendment rights violations against truck drivers. Could easily morph into greater govt meddling.
Kent Nielsen, the head of the Danish political party Frihedslisten (Freedom List), recently confronted Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen over her support and promotion of the so-called “Covid vaccines.” All members of the ruling class are encouraging or even forcing other humans to get injected with these shots regardless of the outcomes.
The newly reelected 44-year-old Prime Minister told was told by Neilsen that 83,000 Danes have died from the controversial vaccines, and more than 150,000 have been injured. Mette refused to answer Nielsen, who was physically assaulted and pushed away by her security, reports 9 For News.
“How do you feel about the fact that you lied about immunity for a year,” he asked, after which security instructed him to keep his distance.
“How can you sleep at night knowing that you are harming and killing Danes?” asked Nielsen. “You must feel guilty, Mette.” The prime minister was completely silent, according to a report by RAIR.
OBSERVATION – Reality of the plandemic continues to sink in. However national leaders like Nielsen will get away with her policies because the GGR controls investigative agencies through their acolytes.
Wuhan virus –
An Ohio court Tuesday upheld a legal pause on separations for airmen who have requested religious exemptions to the mandatory COVID-19 vaccine after finding that the Air Force “wrongly” relied on overly broad reasoning to turn down the waivers.
The 6th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in an ongoing class action suit prosecuted by roughly 10,000 unvaccinated active-duty, reserve and National Guard airmen who have either had their requests to avoid the vaccine on religious grounds denied or still await a decision. A circuit court in March ordered the Department of Defense (DOD), which has mandated vaccinations for all members of the military, to hold off on disciplining or separating airmen while the lawsuit progresses.
OBSERVATION – Another ruling against the military on the mandated wuhan jabs. By this stage of the plandemic, it is clear that the jabs do not stop infections – therefore the main reason it was mandated has evaporated. That aside, the crass and deliberate discharges of military who’ve submitted exemption requests shows there to be a much sicker element in the military command. When our military cannot expect its leaders to act fairly and in accordance with the law, discipline can start to break down. If the command is unjust here, under what other circumstances will they do the same against me.
Official figures published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirm that Australia recorded 15 times more excess deaths in the first 7 months of 2022 than it did throughout the whole of 2020.
Further figures also reveal the country suffered 8.5 times more excess deaths in 2021 following the roll-out of the Covid-19 injection than it did in 2020 prior to the roll-out of the Covid-19 injection.
OBSERVATION – More and more evidence points to the jab as being ultimately hazardous to your health – particularly if you’ve been boosted.
Economy –
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said it was time to slow the pace of coming interest rate hikes while also signaling a protracted economic adjustment to a world where borrowing costs will remain high, inflation comes down slowly. Powell gave a short-term message that sent markets soaring: The Fed was “slowing down” from the breakneck pace of three-quarter percentage point rate hikes that have prevailed since June, and would feel the way towards the peak interest rate needed to slow inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Powell also indicated that the Fed will likely to need ‘Somewhat Higher’ rates in 2023 than anticipated in September projections.
OBSERVATION – The recent fed tea leave readings have been a rollercoaster ride. It seems with this announcement that the fed is trying to pull up short of the abyss. It may suddenly be dawning on them that to maintain their aggressive rate increases would spell certain doom to the economy. As someone indicated, they may be figuring that an extended period of high inflation is better than trying to put Humpty Dumpty together again after an economic crash. The claim of ‘Somewhat Higher’ rates gives them an out if they desire to go/maintain the aggressive policies and indicates that some level of continued rate increases can be expected into 2023.
While Wall Street was happy about the implied slow down in rate increases, the impact from the existing increases may have already hit the system. The latest jobs report indicates that companies added just 127,000 positions for the month, a steep reduction from the 239,000 the firm reported for October and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 190,000. It also was the lowest total since January 2021.
In the ADP report, the biggest sector gainer by far was leisure and hospitality, which saw an increase of 224,000. However, that was offset by losses in manufacturing (-100,000), professional and business services (-77,000), financial activities (-34,000), and information services (-25,000). Goods-producing industries overall saw a decline of 86,000 jobs, while services firms added 213,000 on net.
OBSERVATION - Service industry growth is nice, but these are low paying and doesn’t do much for growing the domestic PRODUCT.
Big are the loss of 100K manufacturing jobs. These are the people who keep the service industry employed – losses in this sector (as well as those losses in other high paying jobs) will eventually bite the service industry as well. This also doesn’t bode well for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies attempting to stem inflation and stave off a deep recession, nor encouraging for the job market going forward.
More dark economic news -The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index or PMI (used to measure the economic health of manufacturing in the Chicago region), came in today alarmingly under estimates. November Chicago PMI fell to 37.2 vs. 47 est. & 45.2 prior … now starting to flirt with pandemic lows … prices paid rose at slower pace; new orders and production fell at faster pace; inventories rose at faster pace; and employment fell at slower pace
OBSERVATION - Anything below a 50 reading indicates a retraction in the index. Generally, when the readings are in this territory, we are already in a recession.
The second revision of the 3Q 2022 GDP was release and the U.S. economy now reprtely grew at a 2.9% annual rate from July through September, the government said Wednesday in an upgrade from its initial estimate.
It marked the second of three estimates the Commerce Department will provide of economic expansion in the third quarter. In its initial estimate, the department had estimated that the economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate last quarter.
Economists expect the economy to eke out modest 1% annualized growth from October through December, according to a survey of forecasters conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
OBSERVATION – This ‘growth’ inspite of crashing housing market and inflation reducing consumer spending. As with so much other economic data – this may just eventually be a blip on the radar screen.
BTW - 1% is hardly ‘modest’, it is outright anemic.
D-day for a possible nation-wide rail strike continues to approach. Overnight, the house passed a measure that would avert a national railroad strike by forcing the adoption of a tentative labor agreement. The vote was 290 to 137. Measure moves on to the Senate where there is growing skepticism and resistance to preempt a strike in this manner – mostly by those who’s coffers are filled by unions. The Senate is expected to take up House Joint Resolution 100 and Concurrent Resolution 119, averting a possible rail strike after 9 December, but a vote is not scheduled yet.
About 40 percent of U.S. freight moves by rail – and the Association of American Railroads estimates a national rail shutdown could cost $2 billion a day in lost economic output. Federal data show that about 70 percent of domestic coal is transported wholly or partly on railroad tracks. Shutting down freight rail would thus cause an abrupt halt to 70 percent of the coal that today fuels power plants, factories, and (ultimately) electric vehicles.
OBSERVATON – I still expect congress to pass the bill. Unions will be ticked but it is a long time until the next election, plenty of time for any short-term anger to dissipate. At least that is the democrat’s hope.
Invasion of Illegals –
A majority of the Supreme Court appeared likely to limit the federal government’s discretion when enforcing guidelines dealing with illegal migrant deportations, an important case over the Biden administration’s immigration strategy.
OBSERVATION – A ruling against biden et al would serve to force DHS to actually enforce existing law and start deporting a broader range of illegals. The ruling won’t come down for several months and I fully expect that biden et al will weasel word a ‘change’ to policy that skirts around the edges of the decision in order to maintain most of the current policy. As with other contrary court rulings, that would force years of court challenges before it could reach the USSC again, effectively negating the decision.
CW2/Domestic violence –
In one of many similar situations faced by citizens during the 2020 riots, a New York City mother-of-three who plowed her BMW into a group of BLM protesters in 2020 has yet again refused a plea deal in favor of a jury trial.
Kathleen Casillo, 54, appeared in Manhattan Criminal Court on Tuesday nearly two years after she was accused of driving into pedestrians during the protest at the Manhattan intersection of 39th Street and Third Avenue on December 11, 2020.
OBSERVATION – Leftist soros-lawyers refuse to grant self defense claims of those involved in these situations. This has lead to some states enacting laws to protect drivers and allow them to invoke self defense. The infamous video of Reginold Denny comes to mind very quickly when considering the results of getting caught in these riots.
Antifa morphed a lot of its traffic stopping and driver threatening tactics as citizens increasingly hit the accelerator when caught. Antifa started to have elements in vehicles down the street set to pull in front and block any vehicle trying to escape a traffic block – and even had individuals designated to shoot (and in several instances did shoot) at the fleeing vehicles. I noted this tactic in several posts during the 2020 period.
Antifa, absent a unifying national event that it can rally around, has returned to its Berkeley riot days of targeting conservative speakers on college campuses. Latest example is Antifa et al’s assault of an event Turning Point USA (TPUSA) founder Charlie Kirk held at the University of New Mexico on Wednesday evening, with protesters calling to “shut down white supremacy.”
State police kept the ‘protestors’ at bay and allowed the event to take place. No word if Antifa was able to assault attendees after the program as they left for their homes.
OBSERVATION – Continued growth in the ‘woke’ elements on campuses is allowing for a good recruiting crop for Antifa. It benefits them to keep the kettle stirred and the mindless sheeple students agitated against anything that goes against the narrative. TPUSA has been a lightning rod for these protests of recent. Probably because the speakers are very well prepared and cause great deal of distress to those lefties who try to score ‘gotchas’ in Q&A times.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
See Antifa protests of TPUSA above.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Democrats voted Wednesday to make Rep. Hakeem Jeffries their leader in the next Congress, replacing 82-year-old Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Jeffries won the post in an uncontested election after Pelosi and the two other incumbent members of the Democratic leadership, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, opted to step down. Jeffries, a 52-year-old New Yorker, will be the first African American to serve as House Democratic leader.
OBSERVATION – Jeffries is an election denier and a hard core leftie known to be a political street fighter. I doubt the eGOP leadership is capable of handling the procedural knife fight they will be encountering during the next session.
Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and three other Republican senators delivered a letter to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., this week, reiterating the need for a short-term Continuing Resolution that only covers funding the federal government through early January — shortly after the GOP-controlled Congress convenes.
OBSERVATION – the eGOP will likely dismiss this request in favor of maintaining the kiss *** relationship with the democrats.
Elon Musk revealed Wednesday that under previously leadership, the social media giant did in fact interfere in elections. Replying to @Reuters “Twitter has shown itself to be not safe for the past 10 years and has lost users’ trust. The past team of “trust and safety” is a disgrace, so it doesn’t have any right to judge what is being done now. They had a chance, but they sold their souls to a corporation.”
Elon Musk @elonmusk “Exactly. The obvious reality, as long-time users know, is that Twitter has failed in trust & safety for a very long time and has interfered in elections.
OBSERVATION – There is little wonder why the left is in such a tizzy about Musk – he has the goods on Big Tech’s complicity in influencing the elections.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Mayorkas issued a new National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin. According to the new bulletin, DHS expects the domestic threat environment to remain heightened and that violent domestic extremists could exploit public gatherings to commit political violence.
OBSERVATION – Threat being from white, conservative Americans. Bulletins like this keep me on edge for a false flag event to give the ‘justification’ to govt to go after conservatives and others who reject the goals of the left.
China –
Details of the protests in China have trickled to near zero and China has effectively locked down independent reporting and social media tools. Mainstream news sources suggest protests are continuing in some manner. One news report indicates that the Chinese Ministry of Public Security has stated that they have found “Evidence” that Hostile Foreign Powers are creating the Civil Unrest that is continuing to take place in multiple Cities across the Country and that they are prepared to handle this External Meddling.
The ’external’ provocation is a common excuse of tyrants.
Also rumored that the Chinese military is making its presence seen in Beijing, but no reported widespread deployments. Appears the police still have things under somewhat of control.
North/South Korea –
2 Chinese, 6 Russian warplanes entered South Korea’s air defense zone without notice. This was part of a joint Russia/China exercise
Japan –
2 Chinese, 6 Russian warplanes entered Japan’s air defense zone without notice (Note – same aircraft mentioned under North/South Korea. This was part of a joint Russia/China exercise
Reports coming out that Japan plans to purchase up to 500 Tomahawk missiles as initial “counterstrike capability” by around 2027. The domestic missile is expected to take until 2026 to deploy.
Japan appears to be entering into some serious long-range conventional missile posturing. 500 TLAMs would be able to threaten significant portion of PLARF’s launchers in eastern China.
OBSERVATION - There is confusing surrounding the 2027 date for Tomahawk and 2026 deployment of their own similar system. Potentially something lost in translation. Some suggest both dates are related to the development and deployment of their own indigenous system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian defense acquisitions budget would be increased by “one and a half times” current spending levels.
NOTE – The Russian economy can barely sustain its current military budget, let alone increase by 150%. .
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forcast
CNN- “The Biden administration is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month at a US base in Germany, according to multiple US officials.”
Though not mentioned, the likely candidate is Grafenwoehr Training Area. Crank out a brigade’s worth of highly trained individuals every month.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Like yesterday, Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Heavy fighting along the LOC northwest of Svatov where Ukraine may have made some successful advances.
After yesterday’s gains by Russia south of Bakhmut, the lines there have stabilized once again.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Svatov – Kreminna defensive line northwest of Svatov, around the town of Novoselivske.
Donetsk Oblast ——
NSR
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operation on the Kinburn Spit. This spit projects westward and controls the shipping lanes going into ports associated with the Dnipir River. Reports suggest that small scale SOF type actions are being conducted as Ukraine would need significant amphibious assault capabilities to handle anything futher.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Gains around Bakhmut have been assess by some to be not tactically significant. What has to be kept in mind is that Russia has been grinding for nearly 6 months against this objective only to gain a few hundred meters of terrain.
Other than the repetitious battles, watch is still ongoing to see if Russia can muster up enough munitions for additional blitz missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
One other thing - with temperatures dropping, the ground will firm up (freeze) and permit Ukraine to resume it ability to maneuver around Russian forces, potentially developing new breakthroughs. How soon this can happen is weather dependent and needs deep soil freezing to counter the mud.
Poland -
Polish President – “Recognizing any Russian gains in the war will lead to more conflict”
Czech Republic to cancel its ambassadorial post in Russia. Current ambassador should leave the country soon. His “successor” would eventually serve as chargé d’affaires there
The European Commission proposes creating a UN court to investigate Russia’s crime of aggression against Ukraine and working out a legal mechanism for using blocked Russian funds to pay compensation to Ukraine for the damage caused
Iran –
Protests across the country have slowed but are expected to increase around Dec 5-7th based upon released information by protest groups – indicating planning cells working together to organize and coordinate activities better. A clear sign of incipient insurgency.
Syria -
Turkish artillery and airstrikes across the northern Syria region. Pattern beginning to indicate battlefield preparation for a ground offensive. Turkey striking both pro- and anti- Assad forces.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday ‘expressed concern over escalating action in northern Syria and Turkey, including recent airstrikes, some of which directly threatened the safety of US personnel’, the Pentagon said.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday told his Turkish counterpart of his “strong opposition” to a new Turkish military operation in Syria and voiced concern over the escalating situation in the country, the Pentagon said tht may turn into a ground war in the US occupied Kurdish regions of Syria.
Turkey -
Turkish Defence Minister Akar and his US counterpart Akar held a phone call, discussed bilateral relations and regional issues. Akar pointed out that Türkiye is carrying out anti-terror operations in line with its right for self-defense.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday will chair a meeting of the National Security Council to discuss the possibility of a fresh cross-border operation against the Kurdish forces in Syria.
New Bluetooth mouse seems to be causing double clicks. A minor pain at times.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Musk says wireless device developed by his brain chip company Neuralink to begin human trials in about 6 months
OBSERVATION – Musk is chaoic to say the least. Love what he’s doing to the libs at twitter, yet OTOH assisting the WEF/GGR their goals. Neural technology has been touted by the WEF this year as movement towards its stated transhumanism goals.
The DOT is submitting a new plan that would require all commercial motor vehicles to be equipped with electronic tracking devices. The plan comes from a Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration agenda, and claims the program would prevent car accidents by identifying “higher risk” vehicles on the road.
OBSERVATION - This permits a govt official to monitor in real time truck movements. Various constitutional concerns are evident – such as 4th amendment rights violations against truck drivers. Could easily morph into greater govt meddling.
Kent Nielsen, the head of the Danish political party Frihedslisten (Freedom List), recently confronted Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen over her support and promotion of the so-called “Covid vaccines.” All members of the ruling class are encouraging or even forcing other humans to get injected with these shots regardless of the outcomes.
The newly reelected 44-year-old Prime Minister told was told by Neilsen that 83,000 Danes have died from the controversial vaccines, and more than 150,000 have been injured. Mette refused to answer Nielsen, who was physically assaulted and pushed away by her security, reports 9 For News.
“How do you feel about the fact that you lied about immunity for a year,” he asked, after which security instructed him to keep his distance.
“How can you sleep at night knowing that you are harming and killing Danes?” asked Nielsen. “You must feel guilty, Mette.” The prime minister was completely silent, according to a report by RAIR.
OBSERVATION – Reality of the plandemic continues to sink in. However national leaders like Nielsen will get away with her policies because the GGR controls investigative agencies through their acolytes.
Wuhan virus –
An Ohio court Tuesday upheld a legal pause on separations for airmen who have requested religious exemptions to the mandatory COVID-19 vaccine after finding that the Air Force “wrongly” relied on overly broad reasoning to turn down the waivers.
The 6th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in an ongoing class action suit prosecuted by roughly 10,000 unvaccinated active-duty, reserve and National Guard airmen who have either had their requests to avoid the vaccine on religious grounds denied or still await a decision. A circuit court in March ordered the Department of Defense (DOD), which has mandated vaccinations for all members of the military, to hold off on disciplining or separating airmen while the lawsuit progresses.
OBSERVATION – Another ruling against the military on the mandated wuhan jabs. By this stage of the plandemic, it is clear that the jabs do not stop infections – therefore the main reason it was mandated has evaporated. That aside, the crass and deliberate discharges of military who’ve submitted exemption requests shows there to be a much sicker element in the military command. When our military cannot expect its leaders to act fairly and in accordance with the law, discipline can start to break down. If the command is unjust here, under what other circumstances will they do the same against me.
Official figures published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirm that Australia recorded 15 times more excess deaths in the first 7 months of 2022 than it did throughout the whole of 2020.
Further figures also reveal the country suffered 8.5 times more excess deaths in 2021 following the roll-out of the Covid-19 injection than it did in 2020 prior to the roll-out of the Covid-19 injection.
OBSERVATION – More and more evidence points to the jab as being ultimately hazardous to your health – particularly if you’ve been boosted.
Economy –
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said it was time to slow the pace of coming interest rate hikes while also signaling a protracted economic adjustment to a world where borrowing costs will remain high, inflation comes down slowly. Powell gave a short-term message that sent markets soaring: The Fed was “slowing down” from the breakneck pace of three-quarter percentage point rate hikes that have prevailed since June, and would feel the way towards the peak interest rate needed to slow inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Powell also indicated that the Fed will likely to need ‘Somewhat Higher’ rates in 2023 than anticipated in September projections.
OBSERVATION – The recent fed tea leave readings have been a rollercoaster ride. It seems with this announcement that the fed is trying to pull up short of the abyss. It may suddenly be dawning on them that to maintain their aggressive rate increases would spell certain doom to the economy. As someone indicated, they may be figuring that an extended period of high inflation is better than trying to put Humpty Dumpty together again after an economic crash. The claim of ‘Somewhat Higher’ rates gives them an out if they desire to go/maintain the aggressive policies and indicates that some level of continued rate increases can be expected into 2023.
While Wall Street was happy about the implied slow down in rate increases, the impact from the existing increases may have already hit the system. The latest jobs report indicates that companies added just 127,000 positions for the month, a steep reduction from the 239,000 the firm reported for October and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 190,000. It also was the lowest total since January 2021.
In the ADP report, the biggest sector gainer by far was leisure and hospitality, which saw an increase of 224,000. However, that was offset by losses in manufacturing (-100,000), professional and business services (-77,000), financial activities (-34,000), and information services (-25,000). Goods-producing industries overall saw a decline of 86,000 jobs, while services firms added 213,000 on net.
OBSERVATION - Service industry growth is nice, but these are low paying and doesn’t do much for growing the domestic PRODUCT.
Big are the loss of 100K manufacturing jobs. These are the people who keep the service industry employed – losses in this sector (as well as those losses in other high paying jobs) will eventually bite the service industry as well. This also doesn’t bode well for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies attempting to stem inflation and stave off a deep recession, nor encouraging for the job market going forward.
More dark economic news -The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index or PMI (used to measure the economic health of manufacturing in the Chicago region), came in today alarmingly under estimates. November Chicago PMI fell to 37.2 vs. 47 est. & 45.2 prior … now starting to flirt with pandemic lows … prices paid rose at slower pace; new orders and production fell at faster pace; inventories rose at faster pace; and employment fell at slower pace
OBSERVATION - Anything below a 50 reading indicates a retraction in the index. Generally, when the readings are in this territory, we are already in a recession.
The second revision of the 3Q 2022 GDP was release and the U.S. economy now reprtely grew at a 2.9% annual rate from July through September, the government said Wednesday in an upgrade from its initial estimate.
It marked the second of three estimates the Commerce Department will provide of economic expansion in the third quarter. In its initial estimate, the department had estimated that the economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate last quarter.
Economists expect the economy to eke out modest 1% annualized growth from October through December, according to a survey of forecasters conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
OBSERVATION – This ‘growth’ inspite of crashing housing market and inflation reducing consumer spending. As with so much other economic data – this may just eventually be a blip on the radar screen.
BTW - 1% is hardly ‘modest’, it is outright anemic.
D-day for a possible nation-wide rail strike continues to approach. Overnight, the house passed a measure that would avert a national railroad strike by forcing the adoption of a tentative labor agreement. The vote was 290 to 137. Measure moves on to the Senate where there is growing skepticism and resistance to preempt a strike in this manner – mostly by those who’s coffers are filled by unions. The Senate is expected to take up House Joint Resolution 100 and Concurrent Resolution 119, averting a possible rail strike after 9 December, but a vote is not scheduled yet.
About 40 percent of U.S. freight moves by rail – and the Association of American Railroads estimates a national rail shutdown could cost $2 billion a day in lost economic output. Federal data show that about 70 percent of domestic coal is transported wholly or partly on railroad tracks. Shutting down freight rail would thus cause an abrupt halt to 70 percent of the coal that today fuels power plants, factories, and (ultimately) electric vehicles.
OBSERVATON – I still expect congress to pass the bill. Unions will be ticked but it is a long time until the next election, plenty of time for any short-term anger to dissipate. At least that is the democrat’s hope.
Invasion of Illegals –
A majority of the Supreme Court appeared likely to limit the federal government’s discretion when enforcing guidelines dealing with illegal migrant deportations, an important case over the Biden administration’s immigration strategy.
OBSERVATION – A ruling against biden et al would serve to force DHS to actually enforce existing law and start deporting a broader range of illegals. The ruling won’t come down for several months and I fully expect that biden et al will weasel word a ‘change’ to policy that skirts around the edges of the decision in order to maintain most of the current policy. As with other contrary court rulings, that would force years of court challenges before it could reach the USSC again, effectively negating the decision.
CW2/Domestic violence –
In one of many similar situations faced by citizens during the 2020 riots, a New York City mother-of-three who plowed her BMW into a group of BLM protesters in 2020 has yet again refused a plea deal in favor of a jury trial.
Kathleen Casillo, 54, appeared in Manhattan Criminal Court on Tuesday nearly two years after she was accused of driving into pedestrians during the protest at the Manhattan intersection of 39th Street and Third Avenue on December 11, 2020.
OBSERVATION – Leftist soros-lawyers refuse to grant self defense claims of those involved in these situations. This has lead to some states enacting laws to protect drivers and allow them to invoke self defense. The infamous video of Reginold Denny comes to mind very quickly when considering the results of getting caught in these riots.
Antifa morphed a lot of its traffic stopping and driver threatening tactics as citizens increasingly hit the accelerator when caught. Antifa started to have elements in vehicles down the street set to pull in front and block any vehicle trying to escape a traffic block – and even had individuals designated to shoot (and in several instances did shoot) at the fleeing vehicles. I noted this tactic in several posts during the 2020 period.
Antifa, absent a unifying national event that it can rally around, has returned to its Berkeley riot days of targeting conservative speakers on college campuses. Latest example is Antifa et al’s assault of an event Turning Point USA (TPUSA) founder Charlie Kirk held at the University of New Mexico on Wednesday evening, with protesters calling to “shut down white supremacy.”
State police kept the ‘protestors’ at bay and allowed the event to take place. No word if Antifa was able to assault attendees after the program as they left for their homes.
OBSERVATION – Continued growth in the ‘woke’ elements on campuses is allowing for a good recruiting crop for Antifa. It benefits them to keep the kettle stirred and the mindless sheeple students agitated against anything that goes against the narrative. TPUSA has been a lightning rod for these protests of recent. Probably because the speakers are very well prepared and cause great deal of distress to those lefties who try to score ‘gotchas’ in Q&A times.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
See Antifa protests of TPUSA above.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Democrats voted Wednesday to make Rep. Hakeem Jeffries their leader in the next Congress, replacing 82-year-old Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Jeffries won the post in an uncontested election after Pelosi and the two other incumbent members of the Democratic leadership, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, opted to step down. Jeffries, a 52-year-old New Yorker, will be the first African American to serve as House Democratic leader.
OBSERVATION – Jeffries is an election denier and a hard core leftie known to be a political street fighter. I doubt the eGOP leadership is capable of handling the procedural knife fight they will be encountering during the next session.
Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and three other Republican senators delivered a letter to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., this week, reiterating the need for a short-term Continuing Resolution that only covers funding the federal government through early January — shortly after the GOP-controlled Congress convenes.
OBSERVATION – the eGOP will likely dismiss this request in favor of maintaining the kiss *** relationship with the democrats.
Elon Musk revealed Wednesday that under previously leadership, the social media giant did in fact interfere in elections. Replying to @Reuters “Twitter has shown itself to be not safe for the past 10 years and has lost users’ trust. The past team of “trust and safety” is a disgrace, so it doesn’t have any right to judge what is being done now. They had a chance, but they sold their souls to a corporation.”
Elon Musk @elonmusk “Exactly. The obvious reality, as long-time users know, is that Twitter has failed in trust & safety for a very long time and has interfered in elections.
OBSERVATION – There is little wonder why the left is in such a tizzy about Musk – he has the goods on Big Tech’s complicity in influencing the elections.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Mayorkas issued a new National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin. According to the new bulletin, DHS expects the domestic threat environment to remain heightened and that violent domestic extremists could exploit public gatherings to commit political violence.
OBSERVATION – Threat being from white, conservative Americans. Bulletins like this keep me on edge for a false flag event to give the ‘justification’ to govt to go after conservatives and others who reject the goals of the left.
China –
Details of the protests in China have trickled to near zero and China has effectively locked down independent reporting and social media tools. Mainstream news sources suggest protests are continuing in some manner. One news report indicates that the Chinese Ministry of Public Security has stated that they have found “Evidence” that Hostile Foreign Powers are creating the Civil Unrest that is continuing to take place in multiple Cities across the Country and that they are prepared to handle this External Meddling.
The ’external’ provocation is a common excuse of tyrants.
Also rumored that the Chinese military is making its presence seen in Beijing, but no reported widespread deployments. Appears the police still have things under somewhat of control.
North/South Korea –
2 Chinese, 6 Russian warplanes entered South Korea’s air defense zone without notice. This was part of a joint Russia/China exercise
Japan –
2 Chinese, 6 Russian warplanes entered Japan’s air defense zone without notice (Note – same aircraft mentioned under North/South Korea. This was part of a joint Russia/China exercise
Reports coming out that Japan plans to purchase up to 500 Tomahawk missiles as initial “counterstrike capability” by around 2027. The domestic missile is expected to take until 2026 to deploy.
Japan appears to be entering into some serious long-range conventional missile posturing. 500 TLAMs would be able to threaten significant portion of PLARF’s launchers in eastern China.
OBSERVATION - There is confusing surrounding the 2027 date for Tomahawk and 2026 deployment of their own similar system. Potentially something lost in translation. Some suggest both dates are related to the development and deployment of their own indigenous system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian defense acquisitions budget would be increased by “one and a half times” current spending levels.
NOTE – The Russian economy can barely sustain its current military budget, let alone increase by 150%. .
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forcast
CNN- “The Biden administration is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month at a US base in Germany, according to multiple US officials.”
Though not mentioned, the likely candidate is Grafenwoehr Training Area. Crank out a brigade’s worth of highly trained individuals every month.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Like yesterday, Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Heavy fighting along the LOC northwest of Svatov where Ukraine may have made some successful advances.
After yesterday’s gains by Russia south of Bakhmut, the lines there have stabilized once again.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Svatov – Kreminna defensive line northwest of Svatov, around the town of Novoselivske.
Donetsk Oblast ——
NSR
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operation on the Kinburn Spit. This spit projects westward and controls the shipping lanes going into ports associated with the Dnipir River. Reports suggest that small scale SOF type actions are being conducted as Ukraine would need significant amphibious assault capabilities to handle anything futher.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Gains around Bakhmut have been assess by some to be not tactically significant. What has to be kept in mind is that Russia has been grinding for nearly 6 months against this objective only to gain a few hundred meters of terrain.
Other than the repetitious battles, watch is still ongoing to see if Russia can muster up enough munitions for additional blitz missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
One other thing - with temperatures dropping, the ground will firm up (freeze) and permit Ukraine to resume it ability to maneuver around Russian forces, potentially developing new breakthroughs. How soon this can happen is weather dependent and needs deep soil freezing to counter the mud.
Poland -
Polish President – “Recognizing any Russian gains in the war will lead to more conflict”
Czech Republic to cancel its ambassadorial post in Russia. Current ambassador should leave the country soon. His “successor” would eventually serve as chargé d’affaires there
The European Commission proposes creating a UN court to investigate Russia’s crime of aggression against Ukraine and working out a legal mechanism for using blocked Russian funds to pay compensation to Ukraine for the damage caused
Iran –
Protests across the country have slowed but are expected to increase around Dec 5-7th based upon released information by protest groups – indicating planning cells working together to organize and coordinate activities better. A clear sign of incipient insurgency.
Syria -
Turkish artillery and airstrikes across the northern Syria region. Pattern beginning to indicate battlefield preparation for a ground offensive. Turkey striking both pro- and anti- Assad forces.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday ‘expressed concern over escalating action in northern Syria and Turkey, including recent airstrikes, some of which directly threatened the safety of US personnel’, the Pentagon said.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday told his Turkish counterpart of his “strong opposition” to a new Turkish military operation in Syria and voiced concern over the escalating situation in the country, the Pentagon said tht may turn into a ground war in the US occupied Kurdish regions of Syria.
Turkey -
Turkish Defence Minister Akar and his US counterpart Akar held a phone call, discussed bilateral relations and regional issues. Akar pointed out that Türkiye is carrying out anti-terror operations in line with its right for self-defense.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday will chair a meeting of the National Security Council to discuss the possibility of a fresh cross-border operation against the Kurdish forces in Syria.
Very slow news day, but a lot of potentially explosive issues pending out there.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Switzerland is considering legislation that would ban people from driving electric vehicles except in urgent conditions over the winter because there simply might not be enough juice on the grid to recharge them.
OBSERVATION – Ah yes, the kalifornia solution. A fully functional and powered grid is necessary for the massive shift to EV’s the GGR demands. It just doesn’t exist. So the globalists are left with just a couple choices IMHO – one is to beef the grid up with sustainable power (ie fossil fuels and nuclear) or two bring it all crashing down. Think about it – crashing the grid will freeze individual mobility (no juice – no EV as well as no gas/diesel for holdouts). This would make the sheeple even more dependent on the govt for its needs and would inhibit refugee outflow from the blue cesspools in the country to red havens. EVs may be even more of a red herring than green energy in a way.
Florida’s chief financial officer said on Thursday his department would pull $2 billion worth of its assets managed by BlackRock Inc, the biggest such divestment by a state opposed to the asset manager’s environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) policies.
The move will hardly dent BlackRock’s $8 trillion in assets and drew a strong response from the company, which said the action put politics over investor interests.
OBSERVATION – BlackRock is the front group for the WEF pushing the ESG agenda. Money talks and BlackRock is speaking loud to these companies that are becoming increasingly cash strapped with the economy as it is.
Economy –
SUMMARY – The week has produced a mix of economic signals that IMHO suggest that we are still on the cusp of a major economic disaster. While inflation has ‘slowed’, and GDP suggests no recession, major funds and businesses are positioning themselves to prepare for a deep recession.
Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department showed that prices, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, rose 6% in October from a year earlier. That was down from 6.3% year-over-year increase in September. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation over the previous 12 months was 5%, less than the 5.2% annual increase in September.
OBSERVATION – biden et al calling this a victory over inflation. However, he isn’t paying 6% out of his pocket. These numbers are not seasonally adjusted either.
The U.S. Senate voted Thursday to pass a resolution imposing a contract on freight rail workers but rejected a concurrent measure that would give workers seven guaranteed paid sick days.
H.J. Resolution 100 passed the Senate by a margin of 80-15, surpassing the 60-vote threshold. The Biden Administration brokered a tentative deal in August between the unions and carriers, but rank-and-file members of four of the twelve unions in the deal rejected it. Paid sick leave for workers was a central hold-up to the deal moving forward. It was eventually defeated.
Administration also told Senate Democrats the fight for more sick leave isn’t over but the only option to avoid rail shutdown was to pass agreement, per senators.
OBSERVATION- The core deal was preserved. The sick leave measure was an add-on. However, the unions are pretty ticked it wasn’t added.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blamed consumers’ excessive spending habits as a primary cause for the near 40-year-high in inflation on Wednesday. Yellen argued the administration managed the COVID-19 pandemic so well that consumers felt comfortable to “splurge” on goods.
“So we had a rapid recovery from the pandemic,” she said, arguing Biden’s policies brought unemployment down from 7% to 3.7%.
“It turned out the pandemic had very special impacts on the economy. Remember, everybody stopped spending on services,” she pointed out, as businesses were shut down. Instead, people spent more money on “grills,” “technology” and office equipment as they were working from home.
“They were in their homes for a year or more, they wanted to buy grills and office furniture, they were working from home, they suddenly started splurging on goods, buying technology,” she claimed, which led to supply chain “bottlenecks.”
OBSERVATION – The lies from this woman are numerous. Just in the unemployment figures, those numbers came down because businesses were allowed to re-open and start hiring again. IIRC total employment is just barely back to pre-wuhan levels. Everyone stopped spending on services because those services were closed by the govt. We splurged on technology during the plague, then splurged again after?
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will ask companies to blend 20.82 billion gallons of biofuel in 2023, and increase the biofuel quota to 21.87 and 22.68 billion gallons in 2024 and 2025. The EPA also approved the use of canola oil for use in making biodiesel, and the Energy Information Administration projects biodiesel production capacity to triple by the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION - This is the most energy consumptive way to create ‘fuel’ there can be. It will also divert resources away from our food chain (human and cattle), placing stress on already high inflationary pressures.
Invasion of Illegals –
President Joe Biden’s border agency expects 9,000 to 14,000 economic migrants per day after officials remove the Title 42 legal barrier in late December, says CNN.
The predicted inflow adds up to roughly 4.5 million migrants per year or more than one extra southern migrant for every American birth in the United States. The southern flow of roughly 4.5 million will add to the annual inflow of roughly 2 million legal immigrants, visa workers, and tourists illegally taking jobs.
OBSERVATION – A complete disaster on the border. At this stage it has become essentially impossible to round up and deport these overwhelming numbers of illegals.
Brandon Judd, the National Border Patrol Council president, has the backs of the United States air marshals who are reportedly rebelling against a Department of Homeland Security deployment order to the U.S.-Mexico border.
The marshals’ assignment refusal isn’t a matter of insubordination, said Judd. Rather, it’s a case of being placed in a position to fail. “First off, good for them. [The marshals] already recognize that they’re not going to be effective down on the border,” Judd told Newsmax Thursday afternoon, while appearing on “American Agenda”
OBSERVATION – Govt making a problem worse. Air marshals belong in the air, not playing biden’s illegal immigration game.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden and first lady Jill Biden attended the 100th National Christmas Tree lighting ceremony in Washington, D.C. yesterday, but many left discussing Biden’s antics once again.
In what has become an all too familiar sight, Biden ended his speech by standing and staring, seemingly completely lost and needing to be escorted off-stage by his wife while he took the microphone with him instead of leaving it on the podium.
China –
Protest news coming out of China still appears to be heavily filtered.
More Chinese cities have reportedly eased anti-virus restrictions and police patrolled their streets Thursday as the government tried to defuse public anger over some of the world’s most stringent COVID measures and head off more protests.
Following weekend demonstrations at which some crowds made the politically explosive demand that leader Xi Jinping resign, the streets of major cities have been quiet in the face of a crackdown that has been largely out of sight.
OBSERVATION – Chinese are a heavily conditioned people, the functional police state executed its controls and have apparently blunted the protests. However, because the wuhan lockdown measures are apparently being eased shows that the magnitude of the protests (and how close they came to overwhelming the state) caught the attention of the leadership who’s self preservation ways ‘wisely ‘ decided to ease up.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
RUMINT –
Banter back and forth about biden’s willingness to sit down with putin and negotiate a peace in Ukraine.
Economic Impact –
- European Union officials have approved a measure to cap the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel. Documents obtained by Reuters indicate the measure also incorporates an adjustment mechanism to ensure the price remains 5% below the current market price. The price cap would be subject to review and adjustment in mid-January and at two-month intervals.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues its assaults on Bahkmut and Donetsk regions backed up by heavy artillery fire. Russia made some minor gains south of Bahkmut, but those gains appear to have little tactical significance. Otherwise, scattered and sporatic Russian artillery fire along the whole LOC.
Ukraine foreign minister said three embassies had now received threatening letters after the security officer at Ukraine’s embassy in Madrid suffered a light injury to one hand while opening a letter bomb addressed to the Ukrainian ambassador. More threatening letters have been received at other embassies overnight.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Skirmishes NW of Kreminna and NW of Svatove
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Things continue to be mostly status quo. Weather and mud appear to be the major controlling factors for each side. Apart from the potential of another Russian ballistic and cruise missile strike, things are going to be relatively static for the near term.
Iran –
Strong protests broke out across the country again following the end of Friday prayers. Govt forces continued to reply by shooting protestors.
Syria -
Kurdish forces in Syria halt their operations with US-led coalition against ISIS after Turkish attacks.
OBSERVATION – Chaos beginning to ensue.
Yesterday was used up helping with a food drive. I’ll get things caught up today.
Wuhan virus –
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he wants to keep the military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place to protect the health of the troops, as Republican governors and lawmakers press to rescind it.
OBSERVATION – Its about power, and in this case, degrading our military. Austin is a 4 x jabber – yet he still got wuhan. The science is out there – the jab has become more dangerous than the disease and the continued push for the mandate serves only to degrade morale of the forces and split it.
AGAIN - Its all about power
Invasion of Illegals –
Department of Homeland Security has been assuring Congress and citizens that they have a plan and the situation is under control. Basically the “plan” involves processing and releasing as many illegals a day as possible. This means minimal vetting for terrorists and criminals.
Last April, DHS calculated that about 18,000 illegals a day would present themselves at the border once Title 42 restrictions were lifted. Last month, a record number of illegals crossed the border and weren’t apprehended. More than 73,000 illegal aliens were classified as “gotaways” — an all-time record.
OBSERVATION – title 42 was a speed bump that helped keep many illegals at bay. With the removal of its protections illegals will pour into the country at even greater numbers than we have seen so far. IMHO we’ve crossed the point now that even with a complete border closure, there are so many illegals running around the country that, with their legal allies, it will be nearly impossible to get control of them and deport them. This is deliberate by the biden regime who’s solution has already been uttered by Schumer - grant amnesty to 11 plus million of them.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Grassroots movements of Americans seeking a political divorce from their fellow citizens have recently gained traction amid deepening cultural rifts, according to multiple figures involved with secessionist organizations who spoke to Fox News Digital.
Such movements have emerged in every region of the U.S. and vary in their goals. Some aim for entire states to leave the union to form a new country, while others endeavor more simply that rural red counties secede from the domination of blue urban centers to form new states. All agree that the disagreements with their political opponents have grown intractable.
OBSERVATION – The gap between Red and Blue is at an unreconcilable stage and the separation has been accelerated by the actions of the swamp combined with the massive movement of conservatives out of blue areas - resulting in deeper colors for both sides. And is isn’t limited to just red areas, blue voice have been calling for a separation as well. The only question is will this ‘divorce’ be on good terms or at the end of a gun barrel.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
New Zealand’s government has officially admitted that it has partner access to Facebook’s controversial content takedown portal. This portal is designed specifically for government agencies to flag content to Facebook for censorship. According to The Intercept, which reported on the portal in October, government partners can also use the portal to “report disinformation directly” to Facebook.
And in a recent response to a New Zealand Official Information Act (OIA) request, which asked whether the government has partner access to Facebook’s takedown portal, the New Zealand government confirmed that the Department of Internal Affairs has access. While this was the only government department that was confirmed to have access to the portal, the OIA response also said “we cannot advise if any other government agency has access to the takedown portal.”
Publicly, the New Zealand government has endorsed the censorship of legal content with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern saying “disinformation” should be regulated like guns, bombs, and nuclear weapons. Big Tech companies have also agreed to a censorship pact in the country where they suppress “misinformation” and “harmful content.”
Most other governments haven’t admitted that they have access to these portals. However, last year The White House did admit that the United States (US) Surgeon General’s Office is flagging posts for Facebook to censor.
OBSERVATION – Govt censorship of individual’s rights on Big Tech not just limited to the US, but is clearly global. These minions of WEF cannot allow any contrary narrative thought and speech. Big Tech is in collaboration with them – See Musk under Political below.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Evidence of one of the biggest political scandals in modern American history was revealed by Musk yesterday. Next “smoking gun” from the Twitter Files will address “what happened after the election,” says Elon Musk on Spaces.
OBSERVATION – The anti-Musk lefties on Twitter are largely silent – only a few sniveling voices against the reveal. Musk had the goods and the left caught with their pants down - they thought they were untouchable – they are finding out otherwise.
Voices are rising for new republican leadership following the midterm debacle. McCarthy’s claim to the speakership is shakey and the RNC leadership are AWOL in Arizona, leaving Lake to flap in the wind – even in the face of undeniable voting irregularities/violations.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
DHS has continued the warnings of holiday time terror incidents by the ‘right’ (domestic terrorists).
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The B-21 was revealed yesterday – the only 6th gen stealth plane in existence.
China –
In recent weeks, Apple Inc. has accelerated plans to shift some of its production outside China, long the dominant country in the supply chain that built the world’s most valuable company, say people involved in the discussions.
Coming after a year of events that weakened China’s status as a stable manufacturing center, the upheaval means Apple no longer feels comfortable having so much of its business tied up in one place, according to analysts and people in the Apple supply chain.
OBSERVATION – It took a lot of 2x4’s to Apple’s head to realize that China was no longer a dependable source for the construction of its iPhones. Trump made those warnings 6+ years ago. Still, it will be years before the shifts will become effective enough to influence production numbers.
Relief from the zero wuhan policies across China has worked to calm protests that broke out last weekend.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
RUMINT –
Russian President Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs and soiled himself this week amid mounting speculation that his health is declining, an anti-Kremlin Telegram channel with apparent links to his security team reported.
Putin, 70, suffered the unfortunate fall at his Moscow official residence on Wednesday evening, according to the Telegram channel “General SVR,” which purports to be run by a former Russian spy.
The ailing Russian leader allegedly fell down five steps before landing on his coccyx, or tailbone.
Although his security guards immediately rushed to his aid, the impact of the fall caused Putin to “involuntarily defecate” due to “cancer affecting his stomach and bowels,” according to the channel.
The incident is the latest health scare for Putin, who is rumored to suffering from worsening cancer and Parkinson’s disease amid the ongoing war with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Rumors concerning putin’s health have been widely circulating for a good year now. These rumors are piggybacking on general growing discontent from the population over the Ukraine war.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C (that’s nearly equivalent to -39 degrees F for us in the US – darn cold even by standards here in my corner of the Redoubt) because essential utility workers have been mobilized – even after the supposed end of mobilization – and sent to Ukraine, hindering repair and maintenance work at home. NOTE – Other sectors of the economy have been hit by removal of workers under the mobilization.
- Russia has stopped sending troops to Ukraine as members of Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs, starting in August. This was done quietly and there were practical reasons for this. First, most of the Russian troops sent to Ukraine since August have been poorly trained light infantry and were often just used to build fortifications. NOTE – BTG’s also need officer/NCO leadership – both of which have been decimated over the course of the last nine months.
Economic Impact –
- G7 and Australia agree to the $60/bbl price cap on oil from Russia.
- Russian authorities rejected a price cap on the country’s oil.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna on December 2.
It appears that Russia has mustered its artillery units to support the Bakhmut attacks and Russia appears to be making minor gains, though at this stage the town itself is still securely in Ukrainian hands.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Skirmishes NW of Kreminna appear to have resulted in a developing breakout. The immediate result is that Ukrainian forces now appear to have physically cut the Hwy 66 route between it and Svatove. Russian rear areas are endangered again.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Ukrainian SOF forces crossed to the left bank Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and hung a Ukranian flag on a crane in Chernovopopivka in Luhansk Oblast. More of a PR ploy to unsettle Russian defenders as the area appears to be in the middle of a very swampy area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Weather is finally changing on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline (as well as other sectors), noting that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their maneuvers as the mud fully freezes in the area. US intel ‘sources’ don’t view it in this manner and are expecting the battle to go into a holding pattern until spring. The developing action around Kreminna is evidence that winter will not slow Ukrainian offensives.
The same potential goes for Russia – improved conditions for vehicle travel. However, I don’t think they’ve learned their lessons yet. They are still largely road bound and those armored elements that do enter combat are falling to the anti-armor kill zones because they do not have proper infantry support.
I anticipate Russia will continue with the almost human wave – frontal attacks as have been observed around Bahkmut and Donetsk – relying heavily upon massed artillery support. On the flip side, shifting artillery to the east leaves much of the rest of southern Ukraine without much supporting artillery or at worse, very crappy units and equipment.
Ukraine still has the home field advantage – with soldiers better prepared for the cold and better supplied. Russia still suffering from logistics headaches – prioritizing ammo over warm, clothing and hot food.
Belarus -
Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus yesterday for a reportedly unannounced visit. After landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document). After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko. Shoigu likely met with Khrenin and Lukashenko in what some believe to be an attempt to place pressure on Belarus to further support Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine.
Monitoring of military activity in Belarus continues to show training being conducted primarily in the central and western areas of the country.
OBSERVATION - Lukashenko faces a potential rebellion and coup if he forces the army to attack Ukraine. Belarus military is OK with training Russians and providing other logistical support. Over the past year, analysts and OSINT evaluations indicate that the quality of the Belarus army is still very poor. They could do OK in defensive operations, but are still incapable of successfully executing offensive operations. Military activity in country continues to be Russian elements composed by recent mobiles learning how to be a soldier and fight.
Iran –
Large protests are being planned on December 5-7. This would be the first truly coordinated series of protests yet.
Iran said Saturday it is reviewing a decades-old law that requires women to cover their heads, as it struggles to quell more than two months of protests linked to the dress code. “Both parliament and the judiciary are working (on the issue .of whether the law needs any changes, Iran’s attorney general Mohammad Jafar Montazeri said.
Included in these ‘discussions’ is the disbanding of the ‘morality police’, known formally as the Gasht-e Ershad or “Guidance Patrol” — were established under hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to “spread the culture of modesty and hijab”, the mandatory female head covering. The units began patrols in 2006.
OBSERVATION - This reveals big cracks developing as more moderate elements are moving to relieve regulations while the mullahs are still working to hold the hard line.
Iraq -
The Iraqi army announces the start of implementing measures to control the joint borders with Iran and Turkey
OBSERVATION – This control is likely designed to prevent Kurdish forces from infiltrating into Iran and Turkey – a demand both countries have made under threat of an invasion to do the controlling for Iraq.
Syria -
Turkey pressing artillery attacks in Kurdish predominate regions.
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