Hope everyone had a blessed thanksgiving. Took an extra day off to go out into the woods and cut down a Christmas tree and get decorations up on the house. Still have a little more outside work while temperatures have moderated.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SUMMARY –
Past week showed a greater push for a nationalized digital currency by several nations. More movement towards green energy goals, but those are becoming increasingly bogged down to the unreliability of the systems and skyrocketing costs.
On Wednesday Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan had teamed up with three megabanks and regional financial institutions to start a digital yen trial in spring 2023. If all goes according to plan the BOJ may go ahead and release a CBDC in 2026.
OBSERVATION – The move to a CBDC could happen earlier if Japan wanted. But the GGR march goes onward.
On 14 November, several top Chinese government agencies collectively released a draft law on the Establishment of the Social Credit System, the first attempt to systematically codify past experiments on social credit and, theoretically, guide future implementation.
This law is formulated so as to improve the social credit system, innovate mechanisms for societal governance, optimize the business environment, standardize order in the Socialist market economy, raise the entire society’s awareness of creditworthiness, advocate the Core Socialist Values, and complete a credit reporting system that covers the entire society.
Law of the PRC on the Establishment of the Social Credit System (Draft Released for Solicitation of Public Comments), China Law Translate, 14 November 2022
The law largely follows local rules that Chinese cities like Shanghai have released and enforced in recent years on things like data collection and punishment methods – just giving them a stamp of central approval.
When the Chinese government talks about social credit, the term covers two different things: traditional financial creditworthiness and “social creditworthiness,” which draws data from a larger variety of sectors. The new draft law addresses the two types of creditworthiness with two different sets of rules.
OBSERVATION - China has been developing this combined social credit system for a good year now. It looks like it is close to going nationwide. GGR/WEF have touted the system as a step closer to what they want enacted globally.
Wuhan virus –
On Wednesday Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, along with Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, deposed Anthony Fauci (head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [NIAID]) at the National Institutes for Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Maryland.
During questioning, Dr. Fauci admitted that he got the idea for the unprecedented economic lockdowns in America based on the draconian measures taken by the Communist Chinese regime.
Fauci sent his longtime co-hort Clifford Lane to China in February to assess the situation. Lane was enthralled with the Chinese measures and pushed the idea on Dr. Fauci.
OBSERVATION – Well, apparently Fauci accepted the most likely tailored views of the China lockdowns from one man who received data from a regime known to lie.
CDC appears to be roughly estimating that 58% of Americans who died from Covid in August were vaccinated. Clearly, now it has become a pandemic of the vaccinated.
Economy –
SUMMARY-
More evidence that economic guru’s are looking at a recession in 2023, but are holding onto hopes that it will be mild.
Black Friday sales at first look seem to be underwhelming.
Agriculture industry is expecting continued high costs for fertilizer and fuel to dominate next years crop cycle, in some cases causing farmers to pull back planting. Record avian flu has killed over 50 million birds over the course of the past year and it shows little signs of lessening as we move into another flu season.
Today is the ‘official’ black Friday – tradition states that after today, businesses will be in “the black” as far as sales revenue goes. This year pre-black Friday sales were rampant, in part due to the damage stores have received from the biden economy struggling out of the wuhan lockdowns and skyrocketing inflation that has kept many shoppers out of the stores. Initial reports are sales were lackluster. Some polls suggested that average spending this year will be up to around $500, but the actual number of presents purchased will be down.
Larry Kudlow, former National Economic Council director under the Trump administration, says there are multiple leading indicators pointing to a recession in 2023.
The first is the Conference Board’s leading indicator, which he calls a “highly accurate forecasting tool” based on 10 key data points—including interest rate spreads, consumer expectations, manufacturing, stock prices, and building permits for new homes.
The Conference Board now forecasts 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth will come in at 1.8% and 2023 GDP will slow to zero.
Second, the money supply, or M2, a measure that Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman championed. M2 has ballooned under President Biden’s “massive increase in federal spending that led to an equally massive money printing by the Federal Reserve,” Kudlow says.
“That was the single-biggest mistake by Joe Biden,” he maintains. “It moved the inflation rate up from about 1% to nearly 10%. Because of that, real wages have fallen 18 consecutive months.
“Third, Kudlow says, is the Treasury bond yield curve inversion between three-month bonds and 10-year Treasuries. Right now, the yields, respectively, are 4.30% and 3.80%, which Kudlow calls “a very alarming sign.”
The fourth gauge of a looming recession in 2023, he says, is actually a slew of bad economic news that cannot be ignored—not least of which are the housing downturn and manufacturing slowdown.
OBSERVATION – Kudlow did say it appeared that inflation was slowing, but would that be enough? Economists continue to see recession coming with some saying it won’t be very deep.
FOOD ISSUES - Farmers in central Oklahoma are warning that high diesel prices could lead to shortages, in addition to other problems. One farmer speaking with a media outlet in Norman, Oklahoma said that fertilizer and diesel costs to run his combines add up to more than what he can get for his soybean crop this year.(FO)
OBSERVATION – the potential for a US food shortage continues to simmer in the background. Soy accounts for a lot of agriculture products including animal feeds. Shortages here will ripple through out the food industry.
RELATED - The average cost of the five top fertilizers is marginally receding, but remains 2.5x higher than 2020 and slightly higher than this time last year.
MORE RELATED - According to the latest USDA numbers, outbreaks of avian flu have killed over 50 million poultry birds, making it the deadliest case in U.S. history. USDA officials are blaming migratory birds, such as ducks, for spreading the virus.
OBSERVATION – In regards to inflation, food prices are still seeing inflationary pressures like the above.
Diesel supplies have improved slightly, diesel and heating oil stocks rose slightly over the past six weeks, a positive sign heading into potential winter shortages. Overall stocks are still 16% below the five year average.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Speaking to reporters on Thursday morning in Nantucket, Massachusetts, Biden was asked to react to the mass shootings at a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on Saturday night and a Walmart in Chesapeake, Virginia, on Tuesday night. Biden complained that semi-automatic firearms are still sold and claimed red-flag laws are not enforced.
“I’m sick and tired of these shootings,” Biden said. “We should have much stricter gun laws.”
Biden then said he intends to pass a gun control bill during the lame-duck session if he can get the votes.
“I’m going to try,” Biden replied. “I’m going to try to get rid of assault weapons.”
“During the lame duck?” the reporter asked again.
“I’m going to do it whenever I — I got to make that assessment as I get in and start counting the votes.”
OBSERVATION – Note - the shooter is a self-described “non-binary” (ie gay) with serious mental problems. The left’s push for gun control during this lame duck session may just be a prequel to the next session where they will have a better majority and spineless republican ‘moderate’ like Romney et al. that could potentially vote for such a regulation - eliminating the need to kill the filibuster rule. It is expected that any gun control originating in the senate would be DOA in the house, but there again, 47 republicans joined the democrats in the ‘gay’ marriage act passage.
State attempts to register/control guns have largely been ineffective due to refusal by citizens to participate. Current USSC make- up is pro 2A but it could take years for any challenges to make it there.
Remember – a disarmed population is much easier for a tyranny to control
Antifa and affiliated groups/individuals are taking a beating on Twitter as Musk is targeting them for suspension/expulsion as they have used Twitter to be a platform for legal free speech, has moved to crack down on for terrorists and violent far-left extremists who have for many years been a fixture on Twitter and used it to organize riots. Following the lead by Andy Ngo, a gay journalist who’s documented Antifa et al violence in the streets and on Twitter.
In a typical Antifa response, calls have gone out to attack local Tesla dealerships. Ground zero being many of the Antifa strongholds along the west coast, with some attempts being made, but police were ready due to monitoring on line calls/organization of the attacks. Some Antifa affiliated individuals are callout attacks on Ngo and others on the right for unmasking their twitter networks.
OBSERVATION – Long overdue for removal and displaying the uber-leftist views of the so called twitter moderators. Musk is also targeting other leftist hate groups calling for anti-semitic attacks, etc. This as the howl of rage continues over Musk actually allowing opposing opinions and views back onto the site.
While there are other social media sites elements of Antifa can move onto - twitter was critical as it served to help recruit new members and ease of communication for elements. A lot of their discomfort is a result of their cockiness in thinking that they couldn’t be touched/suspended in twitter due to woke and sympathetic moderators. They no longer have that cover.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitterverse still lives in spite of all the doomers on the left saying it was going to implode due to the reinstatement of conservative views and removal of uber-leftist moderators. See CW2 above on Musk cleaning out Antifa.
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY –
Looks like the final house of reps count is GOP with 222 while the democrats would have 213.
Political maneuvering continues as house republicans lay out plans to investigate Hunter biden and his links to the president. Meanwhile, the AG continues to weaponize the agency against democrat opposition.
Newly appointed special counsel Jack Smith was instrumental in the Justice Department’s public integrity unit inserting itself into the Lois Lerner IRS scandal targeting conservative nonprofit groups. Lerner, director of the IRS’s Exempt Organizations Unit, led an IRS effort targeting Tea Party groups and similar conservative nonprofit organizations. Smith’s push for DOJ officials to contact Lerner and the IRS in order to get the DOJ involved seemed to be the impetus behind the IRS sending the FBI reams of nonprofit tax records.
“Jack Smith was looking for ways to prosecute the innocent Americans that Lois Lerner targeted during the IRS scandal,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), expected to lead the House Judiciary Committee next year, told the Washington Examiner.
Jordan and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), who led House Oversight, sought Smith’s testimony in May 2014, saying, “It is apparent that the Department’s leadership, including Public Integrity Section Chief Jack Smith, was closely involved in engaging with the IRS.”
Smith testified that month that he spoke with the FBI about these nonprofit groups. “We had a dialogue with the FBI. Never opened any investigations, Public Integrity [Unit] did not. But we did have a dialogue with them over time following this [Oct. 8, 2010, meeting with Lerner].”
OBSERVATION – Smith is a hack instead of truly investigate – but then that should be no surprise now. Many think that Garland’s move is to bleed off attention from any investigation of hunter biden by giving the MSN another story to pursue.
Democrats flipped the state Senate in Minnesota and both legislative chambers in Michigan, meaning members of the party will have full control of government because the states have Democratic governors.
OBSERVATION – Also include gaining control of the governorships in Arizona (tentative), Maryland and Massachusetts, dems are trying to take national level agenda points to the state level – in part trying to duplicate the success republicans have had.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is slated to return to Naval Station Norfolk from its inaugural deployment Saturday.
The carrier, which got underway Oct. 4, and its strike group focused on air defense, anti-subsurface warfare, distributed maritime operations, and conducted a transfer of authority with NATO during their time underway.
OBSERVATION – Shake down deployment appears to have been executed without any significant problems.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Navy started its second Digital Horizon exercise in the Persian Gulf to develop its unmanned surface vessel (USV) fleet. Artificial intelligence programs are also being tested to facilitate the integration of so many unmanned vehicles.
OBSERVATION – The Persian Gulf region is very constricting for our naval forces – large, ocean going vessel designs. USVs as well as smaller, heavily armed surface combatants will be the long term cutting edge of counter Iranian forces in the near future. USV could play a critical role in monitoring the gulf. A serious drawback is that Iran is more than willing to try to intercept and capture these USVs.
China –
Chinese government authorities began a new round of COVID lockdowns amid a record high daily infection rate across numerous major cities. China reports 35,183 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
Lockdown protests reported in Beijing as well other areas. In Beijing, more and more apartment compounds are forbidding residents from leaving for at least a few days.
Foxconn, the major producer of Apple iPhone products reportedly fired 20,000 employees at its plant in Zhengzhou after COVID related unrest. As a result, Foxconn has decreased total production output by 30%.
In another instance, Ten people died in a fire in flats in the city of Urumqi, capital of the western Xinjiang region. The incident has led to anger online and in the street with many claiming people living in the fire-hit compound had been largely prevented from leaving their homes due to the lockdown.
OBSERVATION – China is losing control with its lockdowns, because of the scope as well as citizen refusal to continue under so many prolonged lockdowns. Economic woes are increasing as well.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues to sell dollars and replace them with gold. According to the World Gold Council, from July-September of this year, the PBOC quadrupled gold purchases, adding 300 tons to its reserves. Since February of this year, China has sold over 121 billion in U.S. Treasuries and increased gold transactions 50 times the 2021 level.
OBSERVATION – This action is two fold. First is to protect itself against sanctions inflicted by the west against any action against Taiwan or support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The second is to threaten the dominance of the dollar using a gold-backed yuan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering in its tenth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Kerch Bridge update –
Russia has finally found a use for its inactive amphibious assault ships – shipping supplies to the Crimea while the Kerch bridge is being repaired.
Logistics –
- Examination of some of the cruse missiles Ukraine was able to shoot down in the recent missile attacks on the electrical grid has revealed that Russia appears to have removed the nuclear warheads from 1980’s vintage AS-15 KENT and Kh-55 ALCMs, replacing them apparently with some sort of ballast – no conventional warhead. Such a system will still produce damage through the missile’s kinetic energy and unspent fuel. More likely, they were fired as a means to try to overwhelm the Ukrainian ADA network. It is being suspected by some that this is more evidence that this improvisation highlights the level of depletion in Russia’s stock of long-range missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Much of Ukraine remains in darkness following this week’s missile barrages by Russia targeting the power grid. Russian air/missile strikes were limited yesterday and overnight.
Russian assaults on Bahkmut region resumed yesterday. Elsewhere, Russian forces worked to reinforce some frontlines in the southeast and are heavily fortifying other defensive positions.
Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic in most of the impacted regions, with intensive attacks on Kherson.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Activity concentrated northwest of Svatove. Russian artillery fire along the border north-northeast of Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian continued assaults west of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery strikes
Crimean front ———
As noted above, intense Russian artillery strikes in the Kherson area.
Ukraine continued its deep interiction campaign into occupied Kherson Oblast with explosions reported in Skadovsk and Nova Kakhovka while ammunition explosions reported in Chaplynka region
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Failing ground campaign, Russia is trying to force submission through a strategic war on Ukraine’s will by attacking the power grid. In that aspect, Russia has gained a degree of success it hasn’t seen elsewhere in the fighting.
In the near term, Ukraine is probing for new areas of weakness to exploit and positioning troops and equipment for that action.
Russia is trying to dig in to hole the remaining terrain it has captured since the start of the war.
Russia may attempt more missile barrages on what’s left of the Ukrainian power grid, but in doing so may risk bringing NATO closer into the conflict. Many options exist for NATO – deploying more advanced air defense systems, deploying longer range weapons like ATACAMS (likely in my view), etc. A spiral of escalation that could bring NATO – Russia into direct conflict.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Last round of Russian missile attacks spilled over into Moldova causing a massive blackout. Moldelectrica, Moldova TSO, reported more than 50% of the country lost electricity.
Belarus -
The European Parliament - Aleksandr Lukashenka must face the tribunal. The EP condemned the human rights violations in the country and Russia’s usage of Belarus for military purposes
State Security Service of Georgia announced on 24 November that the Russian forces illegally detained a Georgian citizen in the area surrounding occupied Artsevi Village, which is beyond the occupation line with Tskhinvali region/S. Ossetia
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The United States on Wednesday welcomed an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to end a nearly two-year dispute over car license plates in northern Kosovo.
OBSERVATION – The details of this agreement are lost in the news flow.
Israel –
Israel’s new govt coalition is still negotiating for positions. Under the coalition agreement between the Likud and Otzma Yehudit party, Itamar Ben Gvir as “National Security Minister” will be given control over the Border Police West Bank division, a unit historically subordinate to the army and Defense Ministry.
Russian Presidential Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev said on November 23, 2022 that the Russian government firmly opposes Israeli airstrikes on Syrian soil. According to TAAS, Lavrentiev then called on Israel to cease these airstrikes
.
“As for Israeli airstrikes, we are strongly against such actions by the Israelis, even though they still say that this is their legal right. But we see that people are dying, not just infrastructure and arsenal being destroyed, and all this is happening on the territory of a sovereign state. Such actions, of course, are illegal, and do not comply with any international norms and laws. We are not only calling, we are demanding that Israel should stop these airstrikes and we will continue to do so,” he stated.
OBSERVATION – Prior to the Ukraine war, Israel and Russia had a fundamental understanding that Israel wouldn’t target Russian assets as long as Russia didn’t engage Israeli assets while attacking Iranian/Hezebollah targets. The dynamics of the situation have changed as Russia – Iranian ties have grown due to Russia’s needs for more drones/missiles to prosecute the war with Ukraine with. No doubt part of that is Iran pushing Russia to interject itself into the Israeli airstrike operations. What can Russia do to back up its orders to Israel? At this stage, very little. Russia has significantly downsized its ground forces by redeploying them to Ukraine. Russia still has some air defense assets, covering its bases and fighter-bomber aircraft. Were Russia to try to interdict Israeli attacks, it would not end well for them.
One possible action to watch out for is Iranian/Hezbollah efforts to move their facilities closer to Russian bases – something that Russia has refused in the past to avoid any accidental impacts from an Israeli strike.
Iran –
Iran Locals are continuing the nationwide anti-government protests on the 69th night of the uprising and standing up to the security units. Heaviest fighting is concentrated in western, Kurdish dominated regions of Iran.
There are rumors that Iran is deploying armored units to the border of Kurdish Iraq, reportedly to follow up on a threat to invade if Iraq fails to stop the Kurds from cross border operations associated with the nationwide protests.
OBSERVATION – Both sides are digging in their heels and preparing for the long term fight. Reports that over 500 protestors have been killed are galvanizing the protestors.
Iraq -
As in Syria, Kurdish lead forces have been key to keeping ISIS at bay. Now kurds in Iraq are having to divert forces to deal with an anticipated Iranian assalt, similar to the Turks in Syria. Evidence is that ISIS is already taking advantage of the situation and appears to be increasing its attacks in Iraq and Syria.
Syria -
At the meeting held in Qamishli, Russia asked the YPG (Kurdish faction) to withdraw all its military presence from the Turkish border to the M4 road (and leave the entire region to the government). Otherwise, Russia warned the YPG that Turkey’s military operation was inevitable. YPG has rejected it.
Gen. Mazloum Abdi — top military commander for the Kurdish-led, U.S.-allied Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) — said on Wednesday his alliance must suspend operations against the resurgent Islamic State in order to prepare for a potentially massive Turkish invasion that could put hundreds of American troops in Syria at risk.
“We did not freeze the joint actions against ISIS alongside the international coalition on purpose. But as I say, we had to stop this action as we go because we are under tremendous stress of a possible Turkish incursion into our areas,” Gen. Mazloum told Fox News on Wednesday.
SEE Iran above about ISIS and kurds.
Turkey -
See Syria above
Central / South America General-
Unconfirmed reports that Bolsonaro has spent the day with the minister of Defense meeting different military officials. They concluded that they have exhausted every democratic option to solve the issue.
OBSERVATION - The military has stepped in in the past to overthrow govt. The claims of vote fraud – and those who claim it are having their children removed and bank accounts zeroed out are just the tip of the iceberg. Things could get very dicey. However at the moment, the military is in a watching mode, not ready to act on one side or the other.
First, thanks GZ for all you do! Read your post every day.
Since 79% of the population is vaccinated, I'd say that it becomes a "pandemic of the vaccinated" when the death rate is more than 79% vaccinated people.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Townhall is reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau inquired about the use of martial law in February during the Freedom Convoy protests.
Two of Canada’s federal ministers talked about using tanks against the peaceful protests who were advocating for their right to not be mandated to get a vaccine.
On April 25, The Public Order Emergency Commission looked into whether the use of wartime vehicles to stop the trucker protests was justified or not. Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti wrote to liberal Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino on Feb. 2 saying “how many tanks are you asking for? I just wanna ask [Defense Minister] Anita [Anand] how many we’ve got on hand?”
Lametti responded saying, “I reckon one will do!”
However, Lametti claimed that the use of tanks was meant to be a joke, despite Trudeau declaring martial law at the time.
Trudeau’s government defended the action of using wartime tanks saying that the country’s “social cohesion, national unity and international reputation” were at serious risk of “irremediable harms” at the hands of the peaceful protestors.
OBSERVATION – Trudeau’s crackdown was huge by itself, but martial law and deployment of tanks is a step far above that. He is in hot water for his emergency declaration and is having trouble justifying it as it undergoes mandatory review. Bottom line is he’ll have his feathers scorched but will remain in power and will continue to move to suppress the rights of Canadians on a plethora of other GGR related issues – most recently global warming versus western Canadian agriculture / ranching.
The WHO has come out with detailed plans to jab the world in its IA2030 plan (note parallel to the Agenda 2030)
What is IA2030?
IA2030 is an ambitious global strategy to maximize the lifesaving impact of vaccines that, if fully implemented, will save 50 million lives over the next decade.
• IA2030 seeks to create a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age fully benefits from vaccines for good health and well-being.
• It is designed to inspire action around the world, and inform how health ministers and other leaders develop immunization programmes and set priorities. It will also strengthen global immunization efforts by aligning all stakeholders around a shared vision, priorities, and goals.
• IA2030 is guided by four principles: it puts people in the centre, and is led by countries, implemented through broad partnerships, and driven by high-quality data. As an adaptive and flexible strategy, IA2030 will be tailored by countries to meet their needs, and revised as new opportunities and challenges emerge.
• Unlike many global plans, IA2030 was developed through a collaborative “bottom up” co-creation process that engaged thousands of stakeholders around the world. This approach has helped ensure it reflects the real needs of countries that face the greatest health inequalities. It also draws on lessons learned from implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (2011-2020) and disease-specific initiatives such as polio and measles eradication efforts.
The Targets
Targets to be achieved by 2030 include:
• Achieving 90% coverage for essential vaccines given in childhood and adolescence
• Halving the number of children completely missing out on vaccines
• Completing 500 national or subnational introductions of new or under-utilized vaccines - such as those for COVID-19, rotavirus, or human papillomavirus (HPV)
OBSERVATION - Sweet smelling autocratic language to force jabs on the world based on WHO’s command and removing any authority from nations or individuals. Combined with the work to modify the WHOs treaty to include a global vax passport mandate indicates the GGR crowd is moving ahead at a faster rate, laying the ground work for its regulatory global oversight.
Wuhan virus –
In September, the Indian journal “Biomedicine” published a so-called study by self-professed “mRNA Alchemist” and biotech engineer Raymond D. Palmer, entitled “Covid 19 vaccines and the misinterpretation of perceived side effects clarity on the safety of vaccines.” The study is presently being hosted on the National Library of Medicine site, which is operated by the U.S. federal government.
While various experts, such as internationally esteemed American cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, have issued warnings about potential downsides of the vaccines, Palmer, an astronomy hobbyist and former realtor, claimed that those wary about the COVID-19 vaccines do not just suffer “a profound lack of scientific and medical training” but are at the root of a great deal of vaccine recipients’ suffering.
Palmer’s paper claimed that various adverse effects that take place “in and around the time of receiving the [COVID-19] vaccine” may result from the “mental stress” generated by concerns about those very vaccines.
OBSERVATION – Many have noted that this is blame shifting onto those suffering reactions – it’s all in your head narrative.
Economy –
Some initial reports from Black Friday have come out. U.S. shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from smartphones to toys.
Online spending rose 2.3% on Black Friday, Adobe Inc’s data and insights arm Adobe Analytics said, thanks to consumers holding out for discounts until the traditionally big shopping days, despite deals starting as early as October.
OBSERVATION – In store sales numbers haven’t been released that I can find. So not sure if online sales will be reflected to instore sales. I know my local Walmart was very empty on Black Friday.
Oil futures and swaps globally are increasingly showing signs of easing supply concerns and resurfaced concerns about further weakness in crude oil demand. So far this month, oil prices have dropped amid growing fears of economic slowdown and spiking Covid infections in China, where some forms of restriction on mobility have returned in nearly 50 large cities. Added to this the opening up the market again to Venezuela increased (SEE Venezuela below) the supply side of the equation – further pressuring downward pressures.
OBSERVATION – Weakness in oil demand is commonly a sign of a recessionary period where business / industrial slowdowns result in less demand for oil and related products. China’s wuhan woes is one big driver in this arena. However, the market is still very volatile and suspectable to unforeseen disruptions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Republicans are wasting no time to get their agenda underway as they prepare to take control of the lower chamber, alerting at least 42 officials in the Biden administration that they will be expected to testify in a slew of GOP-led investigations early next year.
OBSERVATION – Great, lots of investigations that will get no coverage by the MSM and that will go nowhere as the biden regime will not follow up on any wrong doings identified by such. An exercise in futility in large part, but in part may serve to force biden onto the defensive and divert efforts to push Marxist / progressive agenda items.
Evidence of republican civil war is breaking out over McCarthy’s bid to become the next Speaker of the House. McCarthy’s bid is at risk of falling apart due to insufficient support from his conference. This may result in multiple votes, something that hasn’t happened in nearly 100 years.
McCarthy launched his effort to be House speaker earlier this month in a closed-ballot vote by his conference. At the time, he only earned 188 of the 218 votes necessary to become speaker, with 31 votes going to his surprise challenger: House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ). Biggs is one of the dozens of Republicans who have refused to support McCarthy’s speakership bid.
The floor vote for House speaker will be held on Jan. 3, just ahead of the start of the new Congress. While 218 votes equal a majority in the lower chamber, McCarthy only needs to win a majority of the votes from lawmakers on the floor.
House rules state that if GOP lawmakers who do not support McCarthy’s bid simply vote “present,” the final number needed to win the majority is lowered — providing him a path to victory.
OBSERVATION - Repercussions towards those who are opposing McCarthy are already rippling through the caucus. Conservative rule changes are being quickly tossed out by the eGOP moderates and a status quo operating plan moving forward. eGOP view the loss of a much larger majority a ‘win’ over Trump and his influence on the party (only eGOP can view a loss as a ‘win’).
Democrats are scrambling to pass big-spending, progressive bills before they lose full control over the legislative branch.
On November 13, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she wants to see Congress approve a debt ceiling increase in the upcoming “lame duck” session. “We want to see the debt ceiling get done. If it got done in the lame duck, that would be great, as far as I’m concerned,” Yellen said to reporters at the G20 summit meetings in Bali, Indonesia, according to US News.
“This economic scenario is cataclysmic… The downturn would be comparable to that suffered during the financial crisis” of 2008, said a report by Moody’s Analytics which predicted failure to raise the ceiling could wipe out $15 trillion in wealth and cost as many as 6 million jobs.
Schumer last week said that he wants to “get a debt ceiling done in this work period,” but acknowledged that it would be virtually impossible without bipartisan support. On the same day, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told reporters that he didn’t think Congress would work on the debt ceiling until “sometime next year.”
OBSERVATION – Tons of democrat pork are on the line. The ‘must pass’ nature of any debt ceiling increase makes is a lot easier for democrats to slip in other unrelated items and the pressure to pass the bill makes it hard to stop those amendments.
China –
After yesterday’s fire in a high-rise building in Urumqi, which killed at least 10 people due to lockdown measures, people in China are now breaking down gates and other obstacles that have been keeping them locked-up for months. Reports said that emergency workers took three hours to extinguish the blaze — a delay the public has attributed to obstacles caused by coronavirus curbs.
Social media users speculated that residents struggled to escape in time because the building was partially locked down. Some residents elsewhere in the city have had their doors chained physically shut.
Protests triggered by the deaths sprung up all over China in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Urumqi, Zhengzhou and Anhui province to name a few. Hundreds of students from Beijing’s elite Tsinghua University protested against COVID lockdowns on Sunday, holding up signs at the entrance of the university’s canteen, AFP news agency reported, citing witnesses. Observers were surprised by the numbers that turned out so quickly to protest the zero wuhan China policies.
The government appears to have drastically underestimated growing discontent towards the zero-Covid approach - a policy inextricably linked to Mr Xi, who recently pledged there would be no swerving from the policy. What’s more, there is no easy way out of the corner the Party appears to have painted itself into.
In response, authorities in China’s western Xinjiang region opened up some neighborhoods
China as a whole reported a fourth straight daily record of 39,791 new COVID-19 infections on Saturday, of which 3,709 were symptomatic and 36,082 were asymptomatic.
Zero-COVID emergency facility meant to house (detain) up to 20,000 in Tianhe District, Guangzhou next to the Guangdong Olympic Center Stadium. There are videos circulating on social media of other facilities, some meant for up to 80,000 ppl.
OBSERVATION – Xi is in a deep hole with his continued zero wuhan policy, and it seems he is willing to dig it deeper. These protests do not threaten his continued leadership at this stage, but do undermine social stability and popular support needed for his bigger goal – military growth and conquest of Taiwan. Chinese are tired of three years of lockdowns and other stresses to their lives.
Chinese economic impacts are also rippling across the globe due to these recent lockdown responses to record wuhan infection reports. Global oil prices are dropping due to perceived weakness in the Chinese market.
North/South Korea –
North Korean scientists have made a “wonderful leap forward in the development of the technology of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles,” Kim said, without elaborating.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country’s ultimate goal is to possess the world’s most powerful nuclear force, as he promoted dozens of military officers involved in the recent launch of North Korea’s largest ballistic missile, state media reported on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – Much of this is rhetoric for NK public consumption. NK doesn’t have the financial support to create a nuclear force comparable to the US. If it has successfully miniaturized nuke warheads to fit on its missiles it becomes a regional threat though and a limited threat to the US mainland via its recently tested ICBM capable rocket.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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Logistics –
- Growing evidence Russian forces are likely using inert (nuke warheads removed) Kh-55 cruise missiles in their massive missile strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, further highlighting the depletion of the Russian military’s high-precision weapons arsenal.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Rumors that an additional mobilization is in the forecast.
- Growing evidence that Russia is relying more and more on essentially human wave attacks reminiscent of WW2 battles.
Economic Impact –
- An investigation by Forbes’ Ukrainian service revealed the extent of the financial strains that the war in Ukraine has imposed on Russia’s annual budget. Forbes found that Russia has spent $82 billion in the first nine months of the war in Ukraine. This amount exceeds the normal army budget for the year alone.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Battles in the Bahkmut and Donetsk areas continue with no significant changes reported.
Russian shelling was also reduced yesterday with it mostly more sporadic in all impacted areas, Sporadic intensive phases occurred in some southeast regions. The Sumy region in the north also witnessed some intensive phases.
Deteriorating weather conditions appear to have served to limit artillery as well as air support on both sides.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian attacks in Bilohorivka, Maryinka, Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne of Donetsk Oblast towards Silversk. Reportedly repelled by Ukraine.
Donetsk Oblast ——
The area around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar in south-central Donetsk Oblast has been the scene of intense combat over the last two weeks, though little territory has changed hands. Both Russia and Ukraine have significant forces committed to this sector, with Russian Naval Infantry having suffered heavy casualties.
However, Russia is unlikely to be able to concentrate sufficient quality forces to achieve an operational breakthrough.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
As noted above, intense Russian artillery strikes in the Kherson area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
No significant changes in current situation on the ground. Poor weather conditions and associated mud are likely to inhibit operations by both sides over the near future.
Force buildups in the of Pavlivka and Vuhledar suggest an attempt to force a south to north pincer move by Russia in order to enclose most of the remaining Donbas region. Such an offensive would lack any supporting attack from the north towards the south. However, Russia lacks the trained and equipped forces necessary for such a maneuver. Meanwhile, it is being reported that Russian forces in this sector have been taking heavy losses, further reducing Russian capabilities for an offensive.
Russia appears to have taken a pause in its strategic attacks on the Ukrainian power grid. This may be due to several factors – global pushback on the overt attempt to harm the Ukrainian people, lack of guided munitions to locally overwhelm air defenses and even potentially receiving signals that further prosecution of these attacks may bring NATO into a deeper and potentially more dangerous role in defending Ukraine. Russia has the capability to launch similar attacks in the future, though it seems to be conserving its munitions for the moment.
Belarus -
Belarussian media has reported that Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei has died “suddenly” at the age of 64.
Trips over the past month to Tehran, Iran, Delhi, India and the CSTO conference in Armenia (3 days ago) showed him in relatively good health.
RUMINT surrounds the discussion that Makei could successfully challenge the current president and that the circumstances surrounding his death have questionable components.
Iran –
Protests against the regime continue across portions of Iran.
Syria -
Turkish Air Force carried out new airstrikes on area of Tell Rifaat (N. Aleppo), under control of SDF/YPG & with Assad’s forces presence. Area from Menagh Airbase & Maaranaz was also bombed.
Turkish warplanes also hit Menag Airport in Aleppo, Syria. Fire erupted at the area.
Reports of ground troops being transported southward on Hwy 214 towards Aleppo
OBSERVATION – Turkish aggression in N Syria could upset the balance of power in the region. It is pressing in on Russian and Iranian influenced areas as well as striking close to US influenced areas. Turkey sees anyone who provides any support to the Kurdish forces in the region as fair game – even though those Kurdish forces have lead efforts to contain ISIS.
Turkey -
See Syria above
Venezuela -
Biden administration on Saturday eased some oil sanctions on Venezuela after the government of Nicolas Maduro and the opposition signed a broad ‘social accord’ to create a UN-administered fund to provide humanitarian aid to the Venezuelan people.
The agreement signed on Saturday in Mexico City by representatives of President Maduro and the opposition — including the faction backed by the United States and led by Juan Guaido — marked the resumption of long-stalled negotiations meant to find a common path out of the South American country’s complex crisis.
The relaxation of curbs on Chevron’s operations in Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, would allow the nation to move towards re-entering global oil markets. International efforts to resolve the Venezuelan crisis have gained strength since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pressure it has placed on global energy supplies.
OBSERVATION – Many question why biden is so gung-ho to open up Venezuela oil, yet is shutting down the US industry. However, this action has contributed to forecasts of surplus oil on the market in the near term – See Economy above.
Maduro’s agreement with the opposition will cement his rule over the country and may bring limited relief to the vast majority of the population that was stuck in the country. US has added stipulations on Maduro stopping human rights violations. Given the spineless biden administration, I expect that Maduro will continue those violations without regard to the agreement.
Central / South America General-
Heavy RUMINT in Brazil that the military may invoke intervention under Article 142 of the Brazilian Constitution, which says that the military has the role of “guaranteeing constitutional powers” under the “supreme authority of the president.” This follows Bolsonaro reported meetings with military leaders.
The widespread protests and calls for the armed forces were an escalation of the Brazilian far-right’s refusal to accept the election of Mr. da Silva, a former president whom many on the right view as a criminal because of his past corruption scandal.
OBSERVATION – BLUF – I don’t see military involvement at this stage. This could be an escalation in the political fight. There are mixed reports that military leaders are split on intervening into the election squabble over a ‘stolen’ election. Brazilian protests are being met with severe, draconian responses from the new leftist govt. And those infraction of civil rights may cause the military to get involved.