I’ll be standing down for tomorrow in celebration of Thanksgiving. Ever thankful for my family, friends and faith. I’ll be watching the Macy’s parade, setting up my outdoor nativity scene and eating turkey. In times of uncertainty I’ll enjoy that we still can celebrate the holidays – for one more year.
Woops, looks like I double clutched yesterday’s post.
Globalism / Great Reset –
There appears to be a new push under the radar for a new WHO pandemic treaty. This hit the front burner many months ago but now is resurfacing. Key item of this treaty reportedly is the abilty for the WHO to overrule your local doctors, hospitals and clinics, forcing them to follow WHO directives on things like masks, quarantines, social distancing and economic lockdowns. WHO pandemic treaty also calls for global censorship against all who disagree with the WHO, allowing the WHO to dictate which voices or organizations should be removed from tech platforms. In essence, it makes the WHO the “Ministry of Truth.”
OBSERVATION – I slogged through part of this document – eyes quickly rolled up into my head at the bureaucrease language. Apparently there is an edited draft floating around the interwebs from Nov 16th timeframe. For those interested the link is below.
https://www.keionline.org/wp-content/uploads/ADVANCE_for_16_November_A_INB3_3_E.pdf
As it turns out, creating soy burgers and other “meat substitutes” isn’t much better — or safer. According to a report in Bloomberg, a plant operated by the fake meat company Beyond Meat is a veritable petri dish of really gross and nasty stuff.
“Products from the plant tested positive for Listeria, a harmful bacteria, on at least 11 occasions during the second half of last year and the first half of 2022, according to an internal document provided by a former employee concerned about conditions at the plant,” reported the news site.
OBSERVATION – Eat bugs and fake meat created under gross conditions - the elite don’t care.
Wuhan virus –
A new Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) report suggests the need for masking and social distancing mandates to protect people from “long COVID.”
Long COVID lacks a specific definition, but generally covers signs, symptoms, and conditions that continue or develop after initial infection.
One short-term recommendation for the general public is: “Encourage or mandate policies and protocols regarding masking and social distancing in public spaces that protect people from infection or reinfection and possible Long COVID.”
The report maintains that ending the mask mandate in late 2021 and 2022 is making it harder for people with long COVID.
“Many people with Long COVID avoid public spaces and events due to a fear of reinfection and the potential worsening of their Long COVID symptoms and health impacts. Some may experience PTSD symptoms as a result of trauma they incurred during their acute infection,” the report said.
OBSERVATION – CDC denying their own science. They’ve admitted that masks do very little to nothing to prevent the spread of wuhan. If it makes long wuhan sufferers feel better to stay masked- then they should. However, to force it upon the rest of society has been proven to be wrong. BTW – I agree that there is something called ‘long covid’ – and I think if/when the medical community gets its head out of its arse and really look at it they may find ways to fight it. However, it seems they want to persist on the same misinformation we’ve had to put up with for over 2 years.
In April of this year (2022), a paper was published that demonstrated that patients who had received a lung transplant were experiencing lung transplant rejection (“LTR”) due to what appeared to be antibody-mediated rejection (“AMR”).
Limited antibody response to messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines has been reported in LTR, with the majority mounting a response after the 2nd dose. In this series, 3 patients developed new and significant respiratory compromise after their 2nd vaccine dose consistent with antibody-mediated rejection (AMR).
Covid-19 Vaccine Triggered Rejection in Lung Transplant Recipients: A Case Series, The Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation, April 2022
OBSERVATION- Remember, some big time organ transplant hospitals have been rejecting patients because they haven’t had the jab. Now this information goes to confirm more nasty side effects from the mRNA they want infecting your body. It in fact appears to cause rejections.
Economy –
Advocates of wind and solar energy have argued that the cost of those energy sources would decline over time as they are more widely adopted. That never made any sense, and it has not proved true. In fact, the cost of both wind and solar energy is destined to continue rising sharply as the massive quantities of materials they require become more expensive as a result of increasing demand, driven by government mandates and subsidies.
In fact, the cost of electricity generated by wind and solar is already skyrocketing , having almost doubled in three years,
OBSERVATION - Wind/solar are fantasies and cannot take over for conventional power plants.
The Labor Department cleared the path for employers to consider environmental, social, and governance principles when choosing investment funds for their 401(k) plans.
The move, which was announced on Tuesday, rolls back restrictions put in place during the Trump administration that made ESG considerations more challenging for employers. The final rule on the matter will take effect in 60 days.
“Today’s rule clarifies that retirement plan fiduciaries can take into account the potential financial benefits of investing in companies committed to positive environmental, social, and governance actions as they help plan participants make the most of their retirement benefits,” Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said.
“Removing the prior administration’s restrictions on plan fiduciaries will help America’s workers and their families as they save for a secure retirement,” he added.
OBSERVATION – This follows BlackRock’s lead in forcing ESG on corporations through back door govt pushing. Instead of securing one’s future, it will eventually destroy them – feeding right into GGR / WEF goals to make people dependent on bigger govt.
Invasion of Illegals –
Kevin McCarthy, on Tuesday called on Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to step down, warning that the House may try to impeach him when Republicans take the majority next year.
OBSERVATION - Impeachment is far too good of a consequence for this piece of evil detrital.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Anderson Lee Aldrich, the suspect who allegedly shot and killed five people and wounded at least 18 others over the weekend at an LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado, identifies as non-binary and uses “they/them” pronouns, according to a court filing on Tuesday night.
OBSERVATION – Progressives and their LGBTQ etc. henchmen find their legs cut out from beneath them again, yet they press on claiming MAGA and conservatives are the reason for this violent act. In fact the rhetoric from the left has been inflammatory. Have to monitor this trend as Antifa has been ‘partnering’ with the LGBTQ etc community to protest/counterprotest many events pro/con.
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY –
The collapse of FTX has generated pressure for Democrats to divest themselves of what they received from the failed Ponzi scheme in campaign contributions.
China –
In the last few days, the mainland China daily Covid case count has climbed to around or more than 28,000 — near levels seen in April during a stringent lockdown in Shanghai, according to CNBC calculations of Wind Information data.
“China might have already passed the point of no return, as it’s unlikely to achieve zero Covid again without another Shanghai-style hard lockdown,” Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu said in a report Tuesday.
In GDP terms, nearly 20% of China’s economy was negatively affected by Covid controls as of Monday, close to the high of 21.2% recorded in mid-April during Shanghai’s lockdown, Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said, citing the firm’s model.
OBSERVATION - China’s economy will continue to be suppressed as long as Xi pursues the zero covid policy.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 85,000 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 278 fighter, attack, bomber and transport jets, 261 attack and transport helicopters, 2,895 tanks, 1,882 artillery pieces, 5,827 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 395 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 16 boats and cutters, 4,393 vehicles and fuel tanks, 209 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,537 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 161 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 480 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
OBSERVATION - Getting a solid count – for either side – is difficult. Doubly so for some battlefields like the Bahkmut region which resembles a WW1 zone where the dead and wounded don’t get recovered. Equipment totals are in line with OSINT trackers of verifiable losses, which generally undercounts actual losses. No matter how you slice it – Russia’s army has been taking a beating – far far worse than Afghanistan and Chechenia combined.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian special forces are reportedly battling the Russians on the islands and in marshes to the southwest, trying to push them out of a strategically vital peninsula at the mouth of the Dnipro River where it meets the Black Sea.
The fighting is focused on the Kinburn Spit, on the east bank of the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian authorities said on Tuesday. For tourists who have visited the sliver of land, the spit is a place of rare natural beauty, but it could also prove pivotal to the next phase of the country’s war against Moscow.
Russia took control of the peninsula in June in one of its last notable advances in the south before it was forced onto the defensive by a sustained Ukrainian counteroffensive. Two weeks ago, the Kremlin ordered a retreat from the city of Kherson, on the west bank of the Dnipro, but military experts said it would fight tenaciously to keep control of Kinburn.
Control of the peninsula allows Russia to project force deeper into the Black Sea, guard routes to the ports in Mykolaiv and Kherson and protect its forces in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. If Ukraine were to take Kinburn, it would put key Russian supply lines running north out of Crimea in easy range of Ukrainian weapon systems.
OBSERVATION – This action is being reported, but not confirmed.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
After a lull of several days, Russia launched a new round of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian power grid overnight across the whole country. Ukrainian power grid operator warns of blackout up to 24 hours across Ukraine.
Russia also has apparently targeted hospitals in Ukraine, hitting two with missiles.
Russian shelling increased on Zaporizhzhia and the Sumy region overnight with significant shelling exchanges around Kherson too. Russian shelling around Bakhmut and north of Donetsk remained intensive at times, while in most other impacted regions it was mostly more sporadic
No changes of significance were reported around Bakhmut despite Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Activity concentrated northwest of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut and Donetsk attacks continue.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Russian army constructing fortifications along Kherson-Melitopol highway, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
Crimean front ———
Relatively calm, some Russian artillery striking Kherson city Ukrainian continues deep strikes on Russian CPs, Logistics and troop concentrations.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Governor of Belgorod region reports shelling in Ustinka village
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
No change expected in the near future. Bahkmut, Donetsk and Svatove-Kreminna all constant.
Mix in sporadic Russian missile attacks on the power grid.
Israel –
Members of Knesset (MKs) from the parties involved in the coalition negotiations demanded on Wednesday morning that a government be formed immediately in the wake of the bombings in Jerusalem. “I will not speak about politics but I will say one thing. We need to form a government as quickly as possible – the terror will not wait,” Otzma Yehudit chairman MK Itamar Ben-Gvir said at the site of the explosion at the entrance to the city.
Iran –
Iran has begun enriching uranium to 60% at its underground Fordow nuclear site, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Tehran had sent a letter to the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency informing the nuclear watchdog of the move, said the report.
Syria -
Turkish warplanes bombed “Saeeda and Zaraba Oil Stations” with air raids in Qamishli canton, north of Al-Hasakah, amid plumes of smoke rising in the area.
Turkey -
President Erdogan – “Turkey’s operations will ensure the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria. We will complete the safe line step by step, starting from boil-headed places such as Tel Rifat, Manbij and Ayn al Arab.”
“The operations we carry out with planes, artillery and drones are only the beginning.”
“”It has been understood that the forces that assured our country that no threat would come from the regions under their control in Syria failed to keep their promises.”
Misc of Note -
Now, in addition to reporting shortages of some of the world’s most widely used antibiotics, pharmacies across the US have reported that kids’ Tylenol too has become scarce.
OBSERVATION – If you know the common, over the counter medicines you use during the winter cold and flu season – you better stock up now because current shortages are not going to get any better soon and other items are likely to become scarce as well. Here in my home, we’ve stocked up early for years on common items we normally use such as ‘theraflu’, throat lozenges, pain meds (asprin, Tylenol, etc) and the like. Now with the grandkiddies stocking up on stuff like kids Tylenol and cough/cold meds. Don’t just sit there – DO IT.
Hope everyone had a blessed thanksgiving. Took an extra day off to go out into the woods and cut down a Christmas tree and get decorations up on the house. Still have a little more outside work while temperatures have moderated.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SUMMARY –
Past week showed a greater push for a nationalized digital currency by several nations. More movement towards green energy goals, but those are becoming increasingly bogged down to the unreliability of the systems and skyrocketing costs.
On Wednesday Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan had teamed up with three megabanks and regional financial institutions to start a digital yen trial in spring 2023. If all goes according to plan the BOJ may go ahead and release a CBDC in 2026.
OBSERVATION – The move to a CBDC could happen earlier if Japan wanted. But the GGR march goes onward.
On 14 November, several top Chinese government agencies collectively released a draft law on the Establishment of the Social Credit System, the first attempt to systematically codify past experiments on social credit and, theoretically, guide future implementation.
This law is formulated so as to improve the social credit system, innovate mechanisms for societal governance, optimize the business environment, standardize order in the Socialist market economy, raise the entire society’s awareness of creditworthiness, advocate the Core Socialist Values, and complete a credit reporting system that covers the entire society.
Law of the PRC on the Establishment of the Social Credit System (Draft Released for Solicitation of Public Comments), China Law Translate, 14 November 2022
The law largely follows local rules that Chinese cities like Shanghai have released and enforced in recent years on things like data collection and punishment methods – just giving them a stamp of central approval.
When the Chinese government talks about social credit, the term covers two different things: traditional financial creditworthiness and “social creditworthiness,” which draws data from a larger variety of sectors. The new draft law addresses the two types of creditworthiness with two different sets of rules.
OBSERVATION - China has been developing this combined social credit system for a good year now. It looks like it is close to going nationwide. GGR/WEF have touted the system as a step closer to what they want enacted globally.
Wuhan virus –
On Wednesday Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, along with Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, deposed Anthony Fauci (head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [NIAID]) at the National Institutes for Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Maryland.
During questioning, Dr. Fauci admitted that he got the idea for the unprecedented economic lockdowns in America based on the draconian measures taken by the Communist Chinese regime.
Fauci sent his longtime co-hort Clifford Lane to China in February to assess the situation. Lane was enthralled with the Chinese measures and pushed the idea on Dr. Fauci.
OBSERVATION – Well, apparently Fauci accepted the most likely tailored views of the China lockdowns from one man who received data from a regime known to lie.
CDC appears to be roughly estimating that 58% of Americans who died from Covid in August were vaccinated. Clearly, now it has become a pandemic of the vaccinated.
Economy –
SUMMARY-
More evidence that economic guru’s are looking at a recession in 2023, but are holding onto hopes that it will be mild.
Black Friday sales at first look seem to be underwhelming.
Agriculture industry is expecting continued high costs for fertilizer and fuel to dominate next years crop cycle, in some cases causing farmers to pull back planting. Record avian flu has killed over 50 million birds over the course of the past year and it shows little signs of lessening as we move into another flu season.
Today is the ‘official’ black Friday – tradition states that after today, businesses will be in “the black” as far as sales revenue goes. This year pre-black Friday sales were rampant, in part due to the damage stores have received from the biden economy struggling out of the wuhan lockdowns and skyrocketing inflation that has kept many shoppers out of the stores. Initial reports are sales were lackluster. Some polls suggested that average spending this year will be up to around $500, but the actual number of presents purchased will be down.
Larry Kudlow, former National Economic Council director under the Trump administration, says there are multiple leading indicators pointing to a recession in 2023.
The first is the Conference Board’s leading indicator, which he calls a “highly accurate forecasting tool” based on 10 key data points—including interest rate spreads, consumer expectations, manufacturing, stock prices, and building permits for new homes.
The Conference Board now forecasts 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth will come in at 1.8% and 2023 GDP will slow to zero.
Second, the money supply, or M2, a measure that Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman championed. M2 has ballooned under President Biden’s “massive increase in federal spending that led to an equally massive money printing by the Federal Reserve,” Kudlow says.
“That was the single-biggest mistake by Joe Biden,” he maintains. “It moved the inflation rate up from about 1% to nearly 10%. Because of that, real wages have fallen 18 consecutive months.
“Third, Kudlow says, is the Treasury bond yield curve inversion between three-month bonds and 10-year Treasuries. Right now, the yields, respectively, are 4.30% and 3.80%, which Kudlow calls “a very alarming sign.”
The fourth gauge of a looming recession in 2023, he says, is actually a slew of bad economic news that cannot be ignored—not least of which are the housing downturn and manufacturing slowdown.
OBSERVATION – Kudlow did say it appeared that inflation was slowing, but would that be enough? Economists continue to see recession coming with some saying it won’t be very deep.
FOOD ISSUES - Farmers in central Oklahoma are warning that high diesel prices could lead to shortages, in addition to other problems. One farmer speaking with a media outlet in Norman, Oklahoma said that fertilizer and diesel costs to run his combines add up to more than what he can get for his soybean crop this year.(FO)
OBSERVATION – the potential for a US food shortage continues to simmer in the background. Soy accounts for a lot of agriculture products including animal feeds. Shortages here will ripple through out the food industry.
RELATED - The average cost of the five top fertilizers is marginally receding, but remains 2.5x higher than 2020 and slightly higher than this time last year.
MORE RELATED - According to the latest USDA numbers, outbreaks of avian flu have killed over 50 million poultry birds, making it the deadliest case in U.S. history. USDA officials are blaming migratory birds, such as ducks, for spreading the virus.
OBSERVATION – In regards to inflation, food prices are still seeing inflationary pressures like the above.
Diesel supplies have improved slightly, diesel and heating oil stocks rose slightly over the past six weeks, a positive sign heading into potential winter shortages. Overall stocks are still 16% below the five year average.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Speaking to reporters on Thursday morning in Nantucket, Massachusetts, Biden was asked to react to the mass shootings at a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on Saturday night and a Walmart in Chesapeake, Virginia, on Tuesday night. Biden complained that semi-automatic firearms are still sold and claimed red-flag laws are not enforced.
“I’m sick and tired of these shootings,” Biden said. “We should have much stricter gun laws.”
Biden then said he intends to pass a gun control bill during the lame-duck session if he can get the votes.
“I’m going to try,” Biden replied. “I’m going to try to get rid of assault weapons.”
“During the lame duck?” the reporter asked again.
“I’m going to do it whenever I — I got to make that assessment as I get in and start counting the votes.”
OBSERVATION – Note - the shooter is a self-described “non-binary” (ie gay) with serious mental problems. The left’s push for gun control during this lame duck session may just be a prequel to the next session where they will have a better majority and spineless republican ‘moderate’ like Romney et al. that could potentially vote for such a regulation - eliminating the need to kill the filibuster rule. It is expected that any gun control originating in the senate would be DOA in the house, but there again, 47 republicans joined the democrats in the ‘gay’ marriage act passage.
State attempts to register/control guns have largely been ineffective due to refusal by citizens to participate. Current USSC make- up is pro 2A but it could take years for any challenges to make it there.
Remember – a disarmed population is much easier for a tyranny to control
Antifa and affiliated groups/individuals are taking a beating on Twitter as Musk is targeting them for suspension/expulsion as they have used Twitter to be a platform for legal free speech, has moved to crack down on for terrorists and violent far-left extremists who have for many years been a fixture on Twitter and used it to organize riots. Following the lead by Andy Ngo, a gay journalist who’s documented Antifa et al violence in the streets and on Twitter.
In a typical Antifa response, calls have gone out to attack local Tesla dealerships. Ground zero being many of the Antifa strongholds along the west coast, with some attempts being made, but police were ready due to monitoring on line calls/organization of the attacks. Some Antifa affiliated individuals are callout attacks on Ngo and others on the right for unmasking their twitter networks.
OBSERVATION – Long overdue for removal and displaying the uber-leftist views of the so called twitter moderators. Musk is also targeting other leftist hate groups calling for anti-semitic attacks, etc. This as the howl of rage continues over Musk actually allowing opposing opinions and views back onto the site.
While there are other social media sites elements of Antifa can move onto - twitter was critical as it served to help recruit new members and ease of communication for elements. A lot of their discomfort is a result of their cockiness in thinking that they couldn’t be touched/suspended in twitter due to woke and sympathetic moderators. They no longer have that cover.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitterverse still lives in spite of all the doomers on the left saying it was going to implode due to the reinstatement of conservative views and removal of uber-leftist moderators. See CW2 above on Musk cleaning out Antifa.
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY –
Looks like the final house of reps count is GOP with 222 while the democrats would have 213.
Political maneuvering continues as house republicans lay out plans to investigate Hunter biden and his links to the president. Meanwhile, the AG continues to weaponize the agency against democrat opposition.
Newly appointed special counsel Jack Smith was instrumental in the Justice Department’s public integrity unit inserting itself into the Lois Lerner IRS scandal targeting conservative nonprofit groups. Lerner, director of the IRS’s Exempt Organizations Unit, led an IRS effort targeting Tea Party groups and similar conservative nonprofit organizations. Smith’s push for DOJ officials to contact Lerner and the IRS in order to get the DOJ involved seemed to be the impetus behind the IRS sending the FBI reams of nonprofit tax records.
“Jack Smith was looking for ways to prosecute the innocent Americans that Lois Lerner targeted during the IRS scandal,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), expected to lead the House Judiciary Committee next year, told the Washington Examiner.
Jordan and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), who led House Oversight, sought Smith’s testimony in May 2014, saying, “It is apparent that the Department’s leadership, including Public Integrity Section Chief Jack Smith, was closely involved in engaging with the IRS.”
Smith testified that month that he spoke with the FBI about these nonprofit groups. “We had a dialogue with the FBI. Never opened any investigations, Public Integrity [Unit] did not. But we did have a dialogue with them over time following this [Oct. 8, 2010, meeting with Lerner].”
OBSERVATION – Smith is a hack instead of truly investigate – but then that should be no surprise now. Many think that Garland’s move is to bleed off attention from any investigation of hunter biden by giving the MSN another story to pursue.
Democrats flipped the state Senate in Minnesota and both legislative chambers in Michigan, meaning members of the party will have full control of government because the states have Democratic governors.
OBSERVATION – Also include gaining control of the governorships in Arizona (tentative), Maryland and Massachusetts, dems are trying to take national level agenda points to the state level – in part trying to duplicate the success republicans have had.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is slated to return to Naval Station Norfolk from its inaugural deployment Saturday.
The carrier, which got underway Oct. 4, and its strike group focused on air defense, anti-subsurface warfare, distributed maritime operations, and conducted a transfer of authority with NATO during their time underway.
OBSERVATION – Shake down deployment appears to have been executed without any significant problems.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Navy started its second Digital Horizon exercise in the Persian Gulf to develop its unmanned surface vessel (USV) fleet. Artificial intelligence programs are also being tested to facilitate the integration of so many unmanned vehicles.
OBSERVATION – The Persian Gulf region is very constricting for our naval forces – large, ocean going vessel designs. USVs as well as smaller, heavily armed surface combatants will be the long term cutting edge of counter Iranian forces in the near future. USV could play a critical role in monitoring the gulf. A serious drawback is that Iran is more than willing to try to intercept and capture these USVs.
China –
Chinese government authorities began a new round of COVID lockdowns amid a record high daily infection rate across numerous major cities. China reports 35,183 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
Lockdown protests reported in Beijing as well other areas. In Beijing, more and more apartment compounds are forbidding residents from leaving for at least a few days.
Foxconn, the major producer of Apple iPhone products reportedly fired 20,000 employees at its plant in Zhengzhou after COVID related unrest. As a result, Foxconn has decreased total production output by 30%.
In another instance, Ten people died in a fire in flats in the city of Urumqi, capital of the western Xinjiang region. The incident has led to anger online and in the street with many claiming people living in the fire-hit compound had been largely prevented from leaving their homes due to the lockdown.
OBSERVATION – China is losing control with its lockdowns, because of the scope as well as citizen refusal to continue under so many prolonged lockdowns. Economic woes are increasing as well.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues to sell dollars and replace them with gold. According to the World Gold Council, from July-September of this year, the PBOC quadrupled gold purchases, adding 300 tons to its reserves. Since February of this year, China has sold over 121 billion in U.S. Treasuries and increased gold transactions 50 times the 2021 level.
OBSERVATION – This action is two fold. First is to protect itself against sanctions inflicted by the west against any action against Taiwan or support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The second is to threaten the dominance of the dollar using a gold-backed yuan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering in its tenth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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Kerch Bridge update –
Russia has finally found a use for its inactive amphibious assault ships – shipping supplies to the Crimea while the Kerch bridge is being repaired.
Logistics –
- Examination of some of the cruse missiles Ukraine was able to shoot down in the recent missile attacks on the electrical grid has revealed that Russia appears to have removed the nuclear warheads from 1980’s vintage AS-15 KENT and Kh-55 ALCMs, replacing them apparently with some sort of ballast – no conventional warhead. Such a system will still produce damage through the missile’s kinetic energy and unspent fuel. More likely, they were fired as a means to try to overwhelm the Ukrainian ADA network. It is being suspected by some that this is more evidence that this improvisation highlights the level of depletion in Russia’s stock of long-range missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Much of Ukraine remains in darkness following this week’s missile barrages by Russia targeting the power grid. Russian air/missile strikes were limited yesterday and overnight.
Russian assaults on Bahkmut region resumed yesterday. Elsewhere, Russian forces worked to reinforce some frontlines in the southeast and are heavily fortifying other defensive positions.
Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic in most of the impacted regions, with intensive attacks on Kherson.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Activity concentrated northwest of Svatove. Russian artillery fire along the border north-northeast of Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian continued assaults west of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery strikes
Crimean front ———
As noted above, intense Russian artillery strikes in the Kherson area.
Ukraine continued its deep interiction campaign into occupied Kherson Oblast with explosions reported in Skadovsk and Nova Kakhovka while ammunition explosions reported in Chaplynka region
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Failing ground campaign, Russia is trying to force submission through a strategic war on Ukraine’s will by attacking the power grid. In that aspect, Russia has gained a degree of success it hasn’t seen elsewhere in the fighting.
In the near term, Ukraine is probing for new areas of weakness to exploit and positioning troops and equipment for that action.
Russia is trying to dig in to hole the remaining terrain it has captured since the start of the war.
Russia may attempt more missile barrages on what’s left of the Ukrainian power grid, but in doing so may risk bringing NATO closer into the conflict. Many options exist for NATO – deploying more advanced air defense systems, deploying longer range weapons like ATACAMS (likely in my view), etc. A spiral of escalation that could bring NATO – Russia into direct conflict.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Last round of Russian missile attacks spilled over into Moldova causing a massive blackout. Moldelectrica, Moldova TSO, reported more than 50% of the country lost electricity.
Belarus -
The European Parliament - Aleksandr Lukashenka must face the tribunal. The EP condemned the human rights violations in the country and Russia’s usage of Belarus for military purposes
State Security Service of Georgia announced on 24 November that the Russian forces illegally detained a Georgian citizen in the area surrounding occupied Artsevi Village, which is beyond the occupation line with Tskhinvali region/S. Ossetia
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The United States on Wednesday welcomed an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to end a nearly two-year dispute over car license plates in northern Kosovo.
OBSERVATION – The details of this agreement are lost in the news flow.
Israel –
Israel’s new govt coalition is still negotiating for positions. Under the coalition agreement between the Likud and Otzma Yehudit party, Itamar Ben Gvir as “National Security Minister” will be given control over the Border Police West Bank division, a unit historically subordinate to the army and Defense Ministry.
Russian Presidential Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev said on November 23, 2022 that the Russian government firmly opposes Israeli airstrikes on Syrian soil. According to TAAS, Lavrentiev then called on Israel to cease these airstrikes
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“As for Israeli airstrikes, we are strongly against such actions by the Israelis, even though they still say that this is their legal right. But we see that people are dying, not just infrastructure and arsenal being destroyed, and all this is happening on the territory of a sovereign state. Such actions, of course, are illegal, and do not comply with any international norms and laws. We are not only calling, we are demanding that Israel should stop these airstrikes and we will continue to do so,” he stated.
OBSERVATION – Prior to the Ukraine war, Israel and Russia had a fundamental understanding that Israel wouldn’t target Russian assets as long as Russia didn’t engage Israeli assets while attacking Iranian/Hezebollah targets. The dynamics of the situation have changed as Russia – Iranian ties have grown due to Russia’s needs for more drones/missiles to prosecute the war with Ukraine with. No doubt part of that is Iran pushing Russia to interject itself into the Israeli airstrike operations. What can Russia do to back up its orders to Israel? At this stage, very little. Russia has significantly downsized its ground forces by redeploying them to Ukraine. Russia still has some air defense assets, covering its bases and fighter-bomber aircraft. Were Russia to try to interdict Israeli attacks, it would not end well for them.
One possible action to watch out for is Iranian/Hezbollah efforts to move their facilities closer to Russian bases – something that Russia has refused in the past to avoid any accidental impacts from an Israeli strike.
Iran –
Iran Locals are continuing the nationwide anti-government protests on the 69th night of the uprising and standing up to the security units. Heaviest fighting is concentrated in western, Kurdish dominated regions of Iran.
There are rumors that Iran is deploying armored units to the border of Kurdish Iraq, reportedly to follow up on a threat to invade if Iraq fails to stop the Kurds from cross border operations associated with the nationwide protests.
OBSERVATION – Both sides are digging in their heels and preparing for the long term fight. Reports that over 500 protestors have been killed are galvanizing the protestors.
Iraq -
As in Syria, Kurdish lead forces have been key to keeping ISIS at bay. Now kurds in Iraq are having to divert forces to deal with an anticipated Iranian assalt, similar to the Turks in Syria. Evidence is that ISIS is already taking advantage of the situation and appears to be increasing its attacks in Iraq and Syria.
Syria -
At the meeting held in Qamishli, Russia asked the YPG (Kurdish faction) to withdraw all its military presence from the Turkish border to the M4 road (and leave the entire region to the government). Otherwise, Russia warned the YPG that Turkey’s military operation was inevitable. YPG has rejected it.
Gen. Mazloum Abdi — top military commander for the Kurdish-led, U.S.-allied Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) — said on Wednesday his alliance must suspend operations against the resurgent Islamic State in order to prepare for a potentially massive Turkish invasion that could put hundreds of American troops in Syria at risk.
“We did not freeze the joint actions against ISIS alongside the international coalition on purpose. But as I say, we had to stop this action as we go because we are under tremendous stress of a possible Turkish incursion into our areas,” Gen. Mazloum told Fox News on Wednesday.
SEE Iran above about ISIS and kurds.
Turkey -
See Syria above
Central / South America General-
Unconfirmed reports that Bolsonaro has spent the day with the minister of Defense meeting different military officials. They concluded that they have exhausted every democratic option to solve the issue.
OBSERVATION - The military has stepped in in the past to overthrow govt. The claims of vote fraud – and those who claim it are having their children removed and bank accounts zeroed out are just the tip of the iceberg. Things could get very dicey. However at the moment, the military is in a watching mode, not ready to act on one side or the other.