Very slow news day, but a lot of potentially explosive issues pending out there.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Switzerland is considering legislation that would ban people from driving electric vehicles except in urgent conditions over the winter because there simply might not be enough juice on the grid to recharge them.
OBSERVATION – Ah yes, the kalifornia solution. A fully functional and powered grid is necessary for the massive shift to EV’s the GGR demands. It just doesn’t exist. So the globalists are left with just a couple choices IMHO – one is to beef the grid up with sustainable power (ie fossil fuels and nuclear) or two bring it all crashing down. Think about it – crashing the grid will freeze individual mobility (no juice – no EV as well as no gas/diesel for holdouts). This would make the sheeple even more dependent on the govt for its needs and would inhibit refugee outflow from the blue cesspools in the country to red havens. EVs may be even more of a red herring than green energy in a way.
Florida’s chief financial officer said on Thursday his department would pull $2 billion worth of its assets managed by BlackRock Inc, the biggest such divestment by a state opposed to the asset manager’s environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) policies.
The move will hardly dent BlackRock’s $8 trillion in assets and drew a strong response from the company, which said the action put politics over investor interests.
OBSERVATION – BlackRock is the front group for the WEF pushing the ESG agenda. Money talks and BlackRock is speaking loud to these companies that are becoming increasingly cash strapped with the economy as it is.
Economy –
SUMMARY – The week has produced a mix of economic signals that IMHO suggest that we are still on the cusp of a major economic disaster. While inflation has ‘slowed’, and GDP suggests no recession, major funds and businesses are positioning themselves to prepare for a deep recession.
Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department showed that prices, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, rose 6% in October from a year earlier. That was down from 6.3% year-over-year increase in September. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation over the previous 12 months was 5%, less than the 5.2% annual increase in September.
OBSERVATION – biden et al calling this a victory over inflation. However, he isn’t paying 6% out of his pocket. These numbers are not seasonally adjusted either.
The U.S. Senate voted Thursday to pass a resolution imposing a contract on freight rail workers but rejected a concurrent measure that would give workers seven guaranteed paid sick days.
H.J. Resolution 100 passed the Senate by a margin of 80-15, surpassing the 60-vote threshold. The Biden Administration brokered a tentative deal in August between the unions and carriers, but rank-and-file members of four of the twelve unions in the deal rejected it. Paid sick leave for workers was a central hold-up to the deal moving forward. It was eventually defeated.
Administration also told Senate Democrats the fight for more sick leave isn’t over but the only option to avoid rail shutdown was to pass agreement, per senators.
OBSERVATION- The core deal was preserved. The sick leave measure was an add-on. However, the unions are pretty ticked it wasn’t added.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blamed consumers’ excessive spending habits as a primary cause for the near 40-year-high in inflation on Wednesday. Yellen argued the administration managed the COVID-19 pandemic so well that consumers felt comfortable to “splurge” on goods.
“So we had a rapid recovery from the pandemic,” she said, arguing Biden’s policies brought unemployment down from 7% to 3.7%.
“It turned out the pandemic had very special impacts on the economy. Remember, everybody stopped spending on services,” she pointed out, as businesses were shut down. Instead, people spent more money on “grills,” “technology” and office equipment as they were working from home.
“They were in their homes for a year or more, they wanted to buy grills and office furniture, they were working from home, they suddenly started splurging on goods, buying technology,” she claimed, which led to supply chain “bottlenecks.”
OBSERVATION – The lies from this woman are numerous. Just in the unemployment figures, those numbers came down because businesses were allowed to re-open and start hiring again. IIRC total employment is just barely back to pre-wuhan levels. Everyone stopped spending on services because those services were closed by the govt. We splurged on technology during the plague, then splurged again after?
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will ask companies to blend 20.82 billion gallons of biofuel in 2023, and increase the biofuel quota to 21.87 and 22.68 billion gallons in 2024 and 2025. The EPA also approved the use of canola oil for use in making biodiesel, and the Energy Information Administration projects biodiesel production capacity to triple by the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION - This is the most energy consumptive way to create ‘fuel’ there can be. It will also divert resources away from our food chain (human and cattle), placing stress on already high inflationary pressures.
Invasion of Illegals –
President Joe Biden’s border agency expects 9,000 to 14,000 economic migrants per day after officials remove the Title 42 legal barrier in late December, says CNN.
The predicted inflow adds up to roughly 4.5 million migrants per year or more than one extra southern migrant for every American birth in the United States. The southern flow of roughly 4.5 million will add to the annual inflow of roughly 2 million legal immigrants, visa workers, and tourists illegally taking jobs.
OBSERVATION – A complete disaster on the border. At this stage it has become essentially impossible to round up and deport these overwhelming numbers of illegals.
Brandon Judd, the National Border Patrol Council president, has the backs of the United States air marshals who are reportedly rebelling against a Department of Homeland Security deployment order to the U.S.-Mexico border.
The marshals’ assignment refusal isn’t a matter of insubordination, said Judd. Rather, it’s a case of being placed in a position to fail. “First off, good for them. [The marshals] already recognize that they’re not going to be effective down on the border,” Judd told Newsmax Thursday afternoon, while appearing on “American Agenda”
OBSERVATION – Govt making a problem worse. Air marshals belong in the air, not playing biden’s illegal immigration game.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden and first lady Jill Biden attended the 100th National Christmas Tree lighting ceremony in Washington, D.C. yesterday, but many left discussing Biden’s antics once again.
In what has become an all too familiar sight, Biden ended his speech by standing and staring, seemingly completely lost and needing to be escorted off-stage by his wife while he took the microphone with him instead of leaving it on the podium.
China –
Protest news coming out of China still appears to be heavily filtered.
More Chinese cities have reportedly eased anti-virus restrictions and police patrolled their streets Thursday as the government tried to defuse public anger over some of the world’s most stringent COVID measures and head off more protests.
Following weekend demonstrations at which some crowds made the politically explosive demand that leader Xi Jinping resign, the streets of major cities have been quiet in the face of a crackdown that has been largely out of sight.
OBSERVATION – Chinese are a heavily conditioned people, the functional police state executed its controls and have apparently blunted the protests. However, because the wuhan lockdown measures are apparently being eased shows that the magnitude of the protests (and how close they came to overwhelming the state) caught the attention of the leadership who’s self preservation ways ‘wisely ‘ decided to ease up.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
RUMINT –
Banter back and forth about biden’s willingness to sit down with putin and negotiate a peace in Ukraine.
Economic Impact –
- European Union officials have approved a measure to cap the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel. Documents obtained by Reuters indicate the measure also incorporates an adjustment mechanism to ensure the price remains 5% below the current market price. The price cap would be subject to review and adjustment in mid-January and at two-month intervals.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues its assaults on Bahkmut and Donetsk regions backed up by heavy artillery fire. Russia made some minor gains south of Bahkmut, but those gains appear to have little tactical significance. Otherwise, scattered and sporatic Russian artillery fire along the whole LOC.
Ukraine foreign minister said three embassies had now received threatening letters after the security officer at Ukraine’s embassy in Madrid suffered a light injury to one hand while opening a letter bomb addressed to the Ukrainian ambassador. More threatening letters have been received at other embassies overnight.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Skirmishes NW of Kreminna and NW of Svatove
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Things continue to be mostly status quo. Weather and mud appear to be the major controlling factors for each side. Apart from the potential of another Russian ballistic and cruise missile strike, things are going to be relatively static for the near term.
Iran –
Strong protests broke out across the country again following the end of Friday prayers. Govt forces continued to reply by shooting protestors.
Syria -
Kurdish forces in Syria halt their operations with US-led coalition against ISIS after Turkish attacks.
OBSERVATION – Chaos beginning to ensue.
Yesterday was used up helping with a food drive. I’ll get things caught up today.
Wuhan virus –
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he wants to keep the military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place to protect the health of the troops, as Republican governors and lawmakers press to rescind it.
OBSERVATION – Its about power, and in this case, degrading our military. Austin is a 4 x jabber – yet he still got wuhan. The science is out there – the jab has become more dangerous than the disease and the continued push for the mandate serves only to degrade morale of the forces and split it.
AGAIN - Its all about power
Invasion of Illegals –
Department of Homeland Security has been assuring Congress and citizens that they have a plan and the situation is under control. Basically the “plan” involves processing and releasing as many illegals a day as possible. This means minimal vetting for terrorists and criminals.
Last April, DHS calculated that about 18,000 illegals a day would present themselves at the border once Title 42 restrictions were lifted. Last month, a record number of illegals crossed the border and weren’t apprehended. More than 73,000 illegal aliens were classified as “gotaways” — an all-time record.
OBSERVATION – title 42 was a speed bump that helped keep many illegals at bay. With the removal of its protections illegals will pour into the country at even greater numbers than we have seen so far. IMHO we’ve crossed the point now that even with a complete border closure, there are so many illegals running around the country that, with their legal allies, it will be nearly impossible to get control of them and deport them. This is deliberate by the biden regime who’s solution has already been uttered by Schumer - grant amnesty to 11 plus million of them.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Grassroots movements of Americans seeking a political divorce from their fellow citizens have recently gained traction amid deepening cultural rifts, according to multiple figures involved with secessionist organizations who spoke to Fox News Digital.
Such movements have emerged in every region of the U.S. and vary in their goals. Some aim for entire states to leave the union to form a new country, while others endeavor more simply that rural red counties secede from the domination of blue urban centers to form new states. All agree that the disagreements with their political opponents have grown intractable.
OBSERVATION – The gap between Red and Blue is at an unreconcilable stage and the separation has been accelerated by the actions of the swamp combined with the massive movement of conservatives out of blue areas - resulting in deeper colors for both sides. And is isn’t limited to just red areas, blue voice have been calling for a separation as well. The only question is will this ‘divorce’ be on good terms or at the end of a gun barrel.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
New Zealand’s government has officially admitted that it has partner access to Facebook’s controversial content takedown portal. This portal is designed specifically for government agencies to flag content to Facebook for censorship. According to The Intercept, which reported on the portal in October, government partners can also use the portal to “report disinformation directly” to Facebook.
And in a recent response to a New Zealand Official Information Act (OIA) request, which asked whether the government has partner access to Facebook’s takedown portal, the New Zealand government confirmed that the Department of Internal Affairs has access. While this was the only government department that was confirmed to have access to the portal, the OIA response also said “we cannot advise if any other government agency has access to the takedown portal.”
Publicly, the New Zealand government has endorsed the censorship of legal content with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern saying “disinformation” should be regulated like guns, bombs, and nuclear weapons. Big Tech companies have also agreed to a censorship pact in the country where they suppress “misinformation” and “harmful content.”
Most other governments haven’t admitted that they have access to these portals. However, last year The White House did admit that the United States (US) Surgeon General’s Office is flagging posts for Facebook to censor.
OBSERVATION – Govt censorship of individual’s rights on Big Tech not just limited to the US, but is clearly global. These minions of WEF cannot allow any contrary narrative thought and speech. Big Tech is in collaboration with them – See Musk under Political below.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Evidence of one of the biggest political scandals in modern American history was revealed by Musk yesterday. Next “smoking gun” from the Twitter Files will address “what happened after the election,” says Elon Musk on Spaces.
OBSERVATION – The anti-Musk lefties on Twitter are largely silent – only a few sniveling voices against the reveal. Musk had the goods and the left caught with their pants down - they thought they were untouchable – they are finding out otherwise.
Voices are rising for new republican leadership following the midterm debacle. McCarthy’s claim to the speakership is shakey and the RNC leadership are AWOL in Arizona, leaving Lake to flap in the wind – even in the face of undeniable voting irregularities/violations.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
DHS has continued the warnings of holiday time terror incidents by the ‘right’ (domestic terrorists).
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The B-21 was revealed yesterday – the only 6th gen stealth plane in existence.
China –
In recent weeks, Apple Inc. has accelerated plans to shift some of its production outside China, long the dominant country in the supply chain that built the world’s most valuable company, say people involved in the discussions.
Coming after a year of events that weakened China’s status as a stable manufacturing center, the upheaval means Apple no longer feels comfortable having so much of its business tied up in one place, according to analysts and people in the Apple supply chain.
OBSERVATION – It took a lot of 2x4’s to Apple’s head to realize that China was no longer a dependable source for the construction of its iPhones. Trump made those warnings 6+ years ago. Still, it will be years before the shifts will become effective enough to influence production numbers.
Relief from the zero wuhan policies across China has worked to calm protests that broke out last weekend.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
RUMINT –
Russian President Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs and soiled himself this week amid mounting speculation that his health is declining, an anti-Kremlin Telegram channel with apparent links to his security team reported.
Putin, 70, suffered the unfortunate fall at his Moscow official residence on Wednesday evening, according to the Telegram channel “General SVR,” which purports to be run by a former Russian spy.
The ailing Russian leader allegedly fell down five steps before landing on his coccyx, or tailbone.
Although his security guards immediately rushed to his aid, the impact of the fall caused Putin to “involuntarily defecate” due to “cancer affecting his stomach and bowels,” according to the channel.
The incident is the latest health scare for Putin, who is rumored to suffering from worsening cancer and Parkinson’s disease amid the ongoing war with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Rumors concerning putin’s health have been widely circulating for a good year now. These rumors are piggybacking on general growing discontent from the population over the Ukraine war.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C (that’s nearly equivalent to -39 degrees F for us in the US – darn cold even by standards here in my corner of the Redoubt) because essential utility workers have been mobilized – even after the supposed end of mobilization – and sent to Ukraine, hindering repair and maintenance work at home. NOTE – Other sectors of the economy have been hit by removal of workers under the mobilization.
- Russia has stopped sending troops to Ukraine as members of Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs, starting in August. This was done quietly and there were practical reasons for this. First, most of the Russian troops sent to Ukraine since August have been poorly trained light infantry and were often just used to build fortifications. NOTE – BTG’s also need officer/NCO leadership – both of which have been decimated over the course of the last nine months.
Economic Impact –
- G7 and Australia agree to the $60/bbl price cap on oil from Russia.
- Russian authorities rejected a price cap on the country’s oil.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna on December 2.
It appears that Russia has mustered its artillery units to support the Bakhmut attacks and Russia appears to be making minor gains, though at this stage the town itself is still securely in Ukrainian hands.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Skirmishes NW of Kreminna appear to have resulted in a developing breakout. The immediate result is that Ukrainian forces now appear to have physically cut the Hwy 66 route between it and Svatove. Russian rear areas are endangered again.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Ukrainian SOF forces crossed to the left bank Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and hung a Ukranian flag on a crane in Chernovopopivka in Luhansk Oblast. More of a PR ploy to unsettle Russian defenders as the area appears to be in the middle of a very swampy area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Weather is finally changing on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline (as well as other sectors), noting that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their maneuvers as the mud fully freezes in the area. US intel ‘sources’ don’t view it in this manner and are expecting the battle to go into a holding pattern until spring. The developing action around Kreminna is evidence that winter will not slow Ukrainian offensives.
The same potential goes for Russia – improved conditions for vehicle travel. However, I don’t think they’ve learned their lessons yet. They are still largely road bound and those armored elements that do enter combat are falling to the anti-armor kill zones because they do not have proper infantry support.
I anticipate Russia will continue with the almost human wave – frontal attacks as have been observed around Bahkmut and Donetsk – relying heavily upon massed artillery support. On the flip side, shifting artillery to the east leaves much of the rest of southern Ukraine without much supporting artillery or at worse, very crappy units and equipment.
Ukraine still has the home field advantage – with soldiers better prepared for the cold and better supplied. Russia still suffering from logistics headaches – prioritizing ammo over warm, clothing and hot food.
Belarus -
Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus yesterday for a reportedly unannounced visit. After landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document). After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko. Shoigu likely met with Khrenin and Lukashenko in what some believe to be an attempt to place pressure on Belarus to further support Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine.
Monitoring of military activity in Belarus continues to show training being conducted primarily in the central and western areas of the country.
OBSERVATION - Lukashenko faces a potential rebellion and coup if he forces the army to attack Ukraine. Belarus military is OK with training Russians and providing other logistical support. Over the past year, analysts and OSINT evaluations indicate that the quality of the Belarus army is still very poor. They could do OK in defensive operations, but are still incapable of successfully executing offensive operations. Military activity in country continues to be Russian elements composed by recent mobiles learning how to be a soldier and fight.
Iran –
Large protests are being planned on December 5-7. This would be the first truly coordinated series of protests yet.
Iran said Saturday it is reviewing a decades-old law that requires women to cover their heads, as it struggles to quell more than two months of protests linked to the dress code. “Both parliament and the judiciary are working (on the issue .of whether the law needs any changes, Iran’s attorney general Mohammad Jafar Montazeri said.
Included in these ‘discussions’ is the disbanding of the ‘morality police’, known formally as the Gasht-e Ershad or “Guidance Patrol” — were established under hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to “spread the culture of modesty and hijab”, the mandatory female head covering. The units began patrols in 2006.
OBSERVATION - This reveals big cracks developing as more moderate elements are moving to relieve regulations while the mullahs are still working to hold the hard line.
Iraq -
The Iraqi army announces the start of implementing measures to control the joint borders with Iran and Turkey
OBSERVATION – This control is likely designed to prevent Kurdish forces from infiltrating into Iran and Turkey – a demand both countries have made under threat of an invasion to do the controlling for Iraq.
Syria -
Turkey pressing artillery attacks in Kurdish predominate regions.
Yesterday was used up helping with a food drive. I’ll get things caught up today.
Wuhan virus –
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he wants to keep the military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place to protect the health of the troops, as Republican governors and lawmakers press to rescind it.
OBSERVATION – Its about power, and in this case, degrading our military. Austin is a 4 x jabber – yet he still got wuhan. The science is out there – the jab has become more dangerous than the disease and the continued push for the mandate serves only to degrade morale of the forces and split it.
AGAIN - Its all about power
Invasion of Illegals –
Department of Homeland Security has been assuring Congress and citizens that they have a plan and the situation is under control. Basically the “plan” involves processing and releasing as many illegals a day as possible. This means minimal vetting for terrorists and criminals.
Last April, DHS calculated that about 18,000 illegals a day would present themselves at the border once Title 42 restrictions were lifted. Last month, a record number of illegals crossed the border and weren’t apprehended. More than 73,000 illegal aliens were classified as “gotaways” — an all-time record.
OBSERVATION – title 42 was a speed bump that helped keep many illegals at bay. With the removal of its protections illegals will pour into the country at even greater numbers than we have seen so far. IMHO we’ve crossed the point now that even with a complete border closure, there are so many illegals running around the country that, with their legal allies, it will be nearly impossible to get control of them and deport them. This is deliberate by the biden regime who’s solution has already been uttered by Schumer - grant amnesty to 11 plus million of them.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Grassroots movements of Americans seeking a political divorce from their fellow citizens have recently gained traction amid deepening cultural rifts, according to multiple figures involved with secessionist organizations who spoke to Fox News Digital.
Such movements have emerged in every region of the U.S. and vary in their goals. Some aim for entire states to leave the union to form a new country, while others endeavor more simply that rural red counties secede from the domination of blue urban centers to form new states. All agree that the disagreements with their political opponents have grown intractable.
OBSERVATION – The gap between Red and Blue is at an unreconcilable stage and the separation has been accelerated by the actions of the swamp combined with the massive movement of conservatives out of blue areas - resulting in deeper colors for both sides. And is isn’t limited to just red areas, blue voice have been calling for a separation as well. The only question is will this ‘divorce’ be on good terms or at the end of a gun barrel.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
New Zealand’s government has officially admitted that it has partner access to Facebook’s controversial content takedown portal. This portal is designed specifically for government agencies to flag content to Facebook for censorship. According to The Intercept, which reported on the portal in October, government partners can also use the portal to “report disinformation directly” to Facebook.
And in a recent response to a New Zealand Official Information Act (OIA) request, which asked whether the government has partner access to Facebook’s takedown portal, the New Zealand government confirmed that the Department of Internal Affairs has access. While this was the only government department that was confirmed to have access to the portal, the OIA response also said “we cannot advise if any other government agency has access to the takedown portal.”
Publicly, the New Zealand government has endorsed the censorship of legal content with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern saying “disinformation” should be regulated like guns, bombs, and nuclear weapons. Big Tech companies have also agreed to a censorship pact in the country where they suppress “misinformation” and “harmful content.”
Most other governments haven’t admitted that they have access to these portals. However, last year The White House did admit that the United States (US) Surgeon General’s Office is flagging posts for Facebook to censor.
OBSERVATION – Govt censorship of individual’s rights on Big Tech not just limited to the US, but is clearly global. These minions of WEF cannot allow any contrary narrative thought and speech. Big Tech is in collaboration with them – See Musk under Political below.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Evidence of one of the biggest political scandals in modern American history was revealed by Musk yesterday. Next “smoking gun” from the Twitter Files will address “what happened after the election,” says Elon Musk on Spaces.
OBSERVATION – The anti-Musk lefties on Twitter are largely silent – only a few sniveling voices against the reveal. Musk had the goods and the left caught with their pants down - they thought they were untouchable – they are finding out otherwise.
Voices are rising for new republican leadership following the midterm debacle. McCarthy’s claim to the speakership is shakey and the RNC leadership are AWOL in Arizona, leaving Lake to flap in the wind – even in the face of undeniable voting irregularities/violations.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
DHS has continued the warnings of holiday time terror incidents by the ‘right’ (domestic terrorists).
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The B-21 was revealed yesterday – the only 6th gen stealth plane in existence.
China –
In recent weeks, Apple Inc. has accelerated plans to shift some of its production outside China, long the dominant country in the supply chain that built the world’s most valuable company, say people involved in the discussions.
Coming after a year of events that weakened China’s status as a stable manufacturing center, the upheaval means Apple no longer feels comfortable having so much of its business tied up in one place, according to analysts and people in the Apple supply chain.
OBSERVATION – It took a lot of 2x4’s to Apple’s head to realize that China was no longer a dependable source for the construction of its iPhones. Trump made those warnings 6+ years ago. Still, it will be years before the shifts will become effective enough to influence production numbers.
Relief from the zero wuhan policies across China has worked to calm protests that broke out last weekend.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
RUMINT –
Russian President Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs and soiled himself this week amid mounting speculation that his health is declining, an anti-Kremlin Telegram channel with apparent links to his security team reported.
Putin, 70, suffered the unfortunate fall at his Moscow official residence on Wednesday evening, according to the Telegram channel “General SVR,” which purports to be run by a former Russian spy.
The ailing Russian leader allegedly fell down five steps before landing on his coccyx, or tailbone.
Although his security guards immediately rushed to his aid, the impact of the fall caused Putin to “involuntarily defecate” due to “cancer affecting his stomach and bowels,” according to the channel.
The incident is the latest health scare for Putin, who is rumored to suffering from worsening cancer and Parkinson’s disease amid the ongoing war with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Rumors concerning putin’s health have been widely circulating for a good year now. These rumors are piggybacking on general growing discontent from the population over the Ukraine war.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C (that’s nearly equivalent to -39 degrees F for us in the US – darn cold even by standards here in my corner of the Redoubt) because essential utility workers have been mobilized – even after the supposed end of mobilization – and sent to Ukraine, hindering repair and maintenance work at home. NOTE – Other sectors of the economy have been hit by removal of workers under the mobilization.
- Russia has stopped sending troops to Ukraine as members of Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs, starting in August. This was done quietly and there were practical reasons for this. First, most of the Russian troops sent to Ukraine since August have been poorly trained light infantry and were often just used to build fortifications. NOTE – BTG’s also need officer/NCO leadership – both of which have been decimated over the course of the last nine months.
Economic Impact –
- G7 and Australia agree to the $60/bbl price cap on oil from Russia.
- Russian authorities rejected a price cap on the country’s oil.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna on December 2.
It appears that Russia has mustered its artillery units to support the Bakhmut attacks and Russia appears to be making minor gains, though at this stage the town itself is still securely in Ukrainian hands.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Skirmishes NW of Kreminna appear to have resulted in a developing breakout. The immediate result is that Ukrainian forces now appear to have physically cut the Hwy 66 route between it and Svatove. Russian rear areas are endangered again.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Ukrainian SOF forces crossed to the left bank Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and hung a Ukranian flag on a crane in Chernovopopivka in Luhansk Oblast. More of a PR ploy to unsettle Russian defenders as the area appears to be in the middle of a very swampy area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Weather is finally changing on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline (as well as other sectors), noting that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their maneuvers as the mud fully freezes in the area. US intel ‘sources’ don’t view it in this manner and are expecting the battle to go into a holding pattern until spring. The developing action around Kreminna is evidence that winter will not slow Ukrainian offensives.
The same potential goes for Russia – improved conditions for vehicle travel. However, I don’t think they’ve learned their lessons yet. They are still largely road bound and those armored elements that do enter combat are falling to the anti-armor kill zones because they do not have proper infantry support.
I anticipate Russia will continue with the almost human wave – frontal attacks as have been observed around Bahkmut and Donetsk – relying heavily upon massed artillery support. On the flip side, shifting artillery to the east leaves much of the rest of southern Ukraine without much supporting artillery or at worse, very crappy units and equipment.
Ukraine still has the home field advantage – with soldiers better prepared for the cold and better supplied. Russia still suffering from logistics headaches – prioritizing ammo over warm, clothing and hot food.
Belarus -
Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus yesterday for a reportedly unannounced visit. After landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document). After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko. Shoigu likely met with Khrenin and Lukashenko in what some believe to be an attempt to place pressure on Belarus to further support Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine.
Monitoring of military activity in Belarus continues to show training being conducted primarily in the central and western areas of the country.
OBSERVATION - Lukashenko faces a potential rebellion and coup if he forces the army to attack Ukraine. Belarus military is OK with training Russians and providing other logistical support. Over the past year, analysts and OSINT evaluations indicate that the quality of the Belarus army is still very poor. They could do OK in defensive operations, but are still incapable of successfully executing offensive operations. Military activity in country continues to be Russian elements composed by recent mobiles learning how to be a soldier and fight.
Iran –
Large protests are being planned on December 5-7. This would be the first truly coordinated series of protests yet.
Iran said Saturday it is reviewing a decades-old law that requires women to cover their heads, as it struggles to quell more than two months of protests linked to the dress code. “Both parliament and the judiciary are working (on the issue .of whether the law needs any changes, Iran’s attorney general Mohammad Jafar Montazeri said.
Included in these ‘discussions’ is the disbanding of the ‘morality police’, known formally as the Gasht-e Ershad or “Guidance Patrol” — were established under hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to “spread the culture of modesty and hijab”, the mandatory female head covering. The units began patrols in 2006.
OBSERVATION - This reveals big cracks developing as more moderate elements are moving to relieve regulations while the mullahs are still working to hold the hard line.
Iraq -
The Iraqi army announces the start of implementing measures to control the joint borders with Iran and Turkey
OBSERVATION – This control is likely designed to prevent Kurdish forces from infiltrating into Iran and Turkey – a demand both countries have made under threat of an invasion to do the controlling for Iraq.
Syria -
Turkey pressing artillery attacks in Kurdish predominate regions.