Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

This will be more of a summary, too much over the week end for details and I’m trying to catch up. More details will be in tomorrows report.
________________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

“Dr” biden went to Poland, brandon stayed home in Delaware.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Riots/protests over the pending Roe v Wade final decision were relatively subdued. A few catholic churches in LA, NYC and Seattle made the news as protestors vandalized some and tried to disrupt mass on Sunday. A pro-life organization office in Wisconsin was it with a firebomb. Justices Roberts and Kavinaugh’s homes were protested over the weekend as well. Threats against Justice Alito cause him and his family to go into protective relocation, as well as the rest of the court.

OBSERVATION - So far these protests have remained restrained and relatively calm. The potential for serious violence hasn’t gained traction. I think partly due to the sheeple more concerned about economic matters and various mouthpieces on the left realizing that legality will rest the individual states , to not a blanket outlawing.
Rhetoric from the proabort side still is at a high, shrill note so I would say we are not out of the woods yet.

___________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments

The U.S. Army redesignated Alaska-based units into the 11th Airborne Division, which will remain tasked to defend the Arctic. The name change comes as the Army tries to develop a “sense of identity” for soldiers stationed in Alaska.
_________________________________

China -

Repeated air incursions of Taiwan over the weekend
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

New SK govt installed today. The new president Yoon Suk-yeol is promising to take a very hard line on North Korea. Stances Include:
- Willing to conduct Preemptive Strike
- Comprehensive Alliance with US
- Nuclear Capability
- Improved Intel

__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Putin gave his “Victory Day” speech overnight and it was largely a nothing burger. He did not declare victory in Ukraine nor make the call for war and a military call up. the parade was noticeably smaller than previous years with no flyover.

RUMINT -
- Rumors that Russian Generals are stabbing each other in the back to avoid being linked to the Ukrainian dumpster fire.
- More reports allege that Russian generals in theater are disobeying orders from Moscow.

Logistics -
- Senior defense official says Russia has “blown through” its PGM stockpile and is having trouble replenishing. “They are having inventory issues,” senior defense official says.
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 700 IFVs since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- It is being reported that Russia is pulling all of its forces out of Syria - about 4000 in all, comprised mostly of officers. It is believed that its facilities and bases will be turned over to either Syria or Iran (Hezebollah)

Economic Impact
- EU looking at a total gas ban from Russia
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast. Soil moisture conditions are deceiving in that while the surface may appear dry, they are saturated several starting several inches below the surface.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
More like a 72 hour round up. Incredibly, very little has happened. Russia has made very minor gains in east while Ukraine consolidates after a significant counteroffensive operation north and east of Khariv. Russian strategic missile strikes on Ukrainan rail infrastructure and munitions depots has died off and the indiscriminate targeting of residential areas resumes. Life also hasn’t treated the garrison stationed on the infamous “snake” island.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Ukraine counter offensive has pushed Russian forces nearly all the way back into Russia. Russia blew several bridges to slow down the offensive. The difference between an offensive and attack is that the attack is more narrow in focus where offensive covers a wider front. It appears that Russia is being forced to divert additional BTGs to hold the border and protect its logistic lines.

Ukraine intel indicates that Russian forces are likely being assembled in Belgorod to be deployed to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive from pushing closer to the Ukraine-Russia border.

Meanwhile, you didn’t miss much on the Izium - Lyman - Popansa sectors, only that after three weeks of the Phase 2 offensive, Russian forces were finally able to capture the tiny village of Popansa. Every thing else in this sector largely unchanged.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops continued to assault the Azovstal Steel Plant and advanced efforts to economically integrate occupied Mariupol into the wider Russian economy.

Ground assault to envelope the Donbas region from the south still are stalled.

Crimea Front -
Very minor actions over the weekend. Satellite imagery suggests that Russia is assembling artillery in the northern Crimea area to support a likely attack(s) towards Zaporizhia and/or Kryvyi Rih.

Increasing missile strikes on residual / civilian areas of Odesa.

Ukraine flexed its airpower over the weekend, striking the Russian garrison on Snake Island, destroying several pieces of ADA systems, seriously damaging a medium landing craft and a MI-8 helicopter. Upwards of 40+ Russians reportedly killed.
TB2’s struck ADA systems, MI-8 and one Project 11770 Serna class landing craft and a total of four Raptor class patrol boats. Two Ukraine Mig 29s struck as well.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Build up of Russian forces believed to be dedicated to stop the Ukraine offensive.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.

When one considers that we are now almost THREE WEEKS into this new phase of the war and Russia has captured very little terrain and in fact has lost more to Ukraine than gains from it. Russian advances are predominantly road bound. As it stands, this second phase is nearly as much a failure as the first phase.

Ukraine’s counter offensive appears to be freezing Russian forces and forcing diversion of BTGs from the Izium axis to protect the rear. This offensive could also set the stage for more cross border strikes by Ukrainan artillery.

If true, failing/refusing follow orders from Moscow will further degrade Russian combat operations as generals in Ukraine and Moscow get in urinary olympic contests over operations.

Ukraine activities harassing the Russians at Snake Island may result in drawing more Russian capitol ships into Neptune range. Add to that potential loss of the smaller amphibious assault ships being used to bring supplies to the garrison.

Finally, Russia’s ability to stay focused on key components of the battle still causes my head to twitch. They launch a two day missile campaign on Ukraine rail lines, then let it drop to bomb civilians elsewhere. largely due IMHO lack of an ability to get timely intel for follow on strikes.
___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Relatively quiet, but lots of rumors going about.
___________________________________

Israel -

Israel looking at a limited ground operation into either Gaza or the West Bank to stop terror attacks that have plagued it over the past few weeks.

Israel also watching the turnover of Russian bases to Iran/Hezebollah. In the past Israel has given the locations wide berth to avoid confrontations with Russia. With Russia gone, so to the. kid glove treatment.
____________________________________

Lebanon -

Hezbollah held a large rally in Nabatiyeh today as Lebanon’s elections begin next week. Nasrallah focused on anti-American and Israel subjects. He also warned that starting at 7pm tonight, Hezbollah will be on alert after the start of the IDF’s Chariots of Fire maneuvers.
__________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

A new report from the Bank for International Settlements estimates that up to 90% of national central banks are at least in the planning stages for launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC): “Nine out of 10 central banks are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and more than half are now developing them or running concrete experiments. In particular, work on retail CBDCs has moved to more advanced stages”

This echoes a March report from the IMF, which claimed over one hundred nations are at least in the planning stages of releasing their own CBDC.

Programmability is a major feature of digital currency which would allow the issuer to set limits and controls over its use. Essentially, any CBDC would give either the state, the central bank or the corporation issuing the money as wages the power to control how and where the money is spent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-04-14/crypto-in-europe-china-nigeria-turn-to-cbdc-digital-cash-experiments

OBSERVATION - Global currency and spending control is a major goal of the GGR. Your ‘money’ ceases to be your own to spend as you see fit. The wuhan plandemic has served as a catalyst as well as covers for this movement to take control.

_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

WSJ published an article noting that wuhan cases are rising in parts of U.S. with high vaccination rates.

____________________________

Economy -

Baby formula shortages reaching critical levels in parts of the country. Significant uptick in searches for ‘home made baby formula’ and increase in emergency visits of infants when those formulas go wrong.

biden to address inflation in a speech tonight. Most expect it to be a repeat of what he’s been saying all along, many of his points being debunked time and again.

The average price of gas in the United States rose to a new high on Tuesday of $4.37 a gallon, according to AAA. The current average for regular unleaded as of Monday is thirteen cents higher than gas was one week ago, twenty cents more expensive than one month ago, and $1.36 more than one year ago.
The national average cost of a gallon of diesel fuel hit $5.540 on Monday, according to AAA’s fuel price data. That’s twenty-one cents more expensive than one week ago, forty-eight cents more than one month ago, and a whopping $2.42 more expensive than last year.

OBSERVATION - Rising fuel costs will continue to force rising prices in all other sectors. US Oil production is still down 1500 (11%) barrels per day from the per-wuhan peak.

California energy officials on Friday issued a sober forecast for the state’s electrical grid, saying it lacks sufficient capacity to keep the lights on this summer and beyond if heatwaves, wildfires or other extreme events take their toll…
In an online briefing with reporters, the officials forecast a potential shortfall of 1,700 megawatts this year, a number that could go as high as 5,000 MW if the grid is taxed by multiple challenges that reduce available power while sending demand soaring, state officials said during an online briefing with reporters.
Supply gaps along those lines could leave between 1 million and 4 million people without power.

OBSERVATION - Electrical shortages are so bad that it is forcing Newscum to reassess his push to close down the state’s last nuclear power plant. Kalifornians are also going to be hit doubly if coal generated power from out side the state (if available) if brought in because of outrageous carbon fees/taxes levied on it. Even with all the mandated home solar, the short fall is there.
______________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

On Monday evening, radical abortion supporters marched on Samuel Alito’s home.
Videos of the protesters flanked by cameramen showed people marching up and down the street chanting slogans like: “our bodies, our voice!” and “Alito is a coward!”
Some members of the crowd carried a banner that read: “Repro Freedom For All.”
The political group Shut Down DC said it would be organizing a vigil outside Justice Alito’s home because “it’s been impossible to reach him at the Supreme Court.”
DOJ is silent on this violation of federal law, being more interested in investigating moms at school board meetings than investigating proaborts breaking the law trying to intimidate USSC justices.

Caroline Reilly, who works for the pro-abortion news site Rewire, wrote “more of this” followed by a link to a New York Times report about the Wisconsin arson investigation.
“More of this. May these people never know a moment of peace or safety until they rot in the ground,” Reilly wrote, according to screen shots from Fox News, National Review, independent journalist Andy Ngo and others.

The office of the Oregon Right to Life in Keizer, OR was attacked on Sunday night. The assailant(s) tried to break the window to throw firebombs inside. Unable to break in, the firebombs were hurled at the building instead.

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot appearing to push for a civil war via a “call to arms”
OBSERVATION - The ‘left’ would say that this is just protected rhetoric, but only loosely .

OBSERVATION - Protests/riots are very subdued in contrast to leftist rhetoric ‘hope’ of more turnout and violence to leverage against the judges. Polls show no traction being gained and that protests may actually be backfiring to some extent.

Many blue states and areas diverted wuhan funds to promote CRT in schools. Renaming it “social and emotional learning”.
___________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

A new CNN poll conducted after the leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion showing a majority of justices favoring rolling back Roe v. Wade, suggests that the overwrought responses from Democrats may not move the needle on Election Day as they’d hoped it would. It shows increased support for republican candidates and issues. On the question of whether Roe should be overturned completely, 34% said it should be — an increase of four points since January — and 66% said no — down three points — suggesting that support for overturning the radical 1973 abortion decision is on the rise.

OBSERVATION - CNN is traditionally a hard left leaning poll source, so these trends are not good for the democrats who were looking to gain traction and support on this issue.

Schumer is looking to push a vote on a very radical proabort bill, already doomed to failure, to try to force senators to take a stand on the issue. Given recent polling , such a vote will do very little when compared to overwhelming economic concerns of the electorate.
_____________________________________

China -

Over the weekend, Hong Kong residents “elected” a new hardline Chinese loyalist, John Lee, to the city-state’s Chief Executive position. Lee received 99.2% of the vote from an “election committee” composed of elite Hongkongers granted the power to select key leaders by Beijing.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

New South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol says he’ll present “an audacious plan” to improve North Korea’s economy if leader Kim Jong Un denuclearizes.
“N.K. nuclear program is a threat to South Korean security and that of Northeast Asia. “. The new president also vowed to keep an open door for dialogue with North Korea.

OBSERVATION - Expect a very bumpy ride as Kim is used to a more plastic SK administration.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war (Day 75)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns said Russian President Putin has “a frame of mind in which he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose… I think he’s convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress [in Ukraine].” Burns assesses the Russian military remains behind schedule even after consolidating its forces for a coastal and westward offensive from Crimea and Donbas. (FO)

OBSERVATION - Some analysts still consider that putin’s nuclear option is still in play. Some view that the option will be cancelled by the Kremlin, justifying that because of putin’s medical condition, his decision would be mentally flawed.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Wagner Group, Russian mercenaries, has called for hundreds of thousands of soldiers to be brought into the Ukraine fight.
- Not confirmed by Russia but fits documented equipment losses, around 26,000 Russian troops have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has said in its latest update. A rough estimate of wounded would be in the neighborhood of 75K-100K Over the past day, Russia suffered the greatest losses in the Avdiivka area, north of the Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
- Poor morale and discipline of the Russian soldiers continues to be a serous problem as reports by US and Ukraine analysts.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Again, incredibly, very little has happened. Russia has made very minor gains in east while Ukraine resumed its counteroffensive operation north and east of Khariv. Russian strategic missile strikes focused on Odesa, hitting civilian targets.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Bilopillia district of Sumy region was shelled with MLRS from Kursk region

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Ukrainian army center offensive resumed liberating Bairak, Zamuilivka, Verkhnii Saltiv and Rubizhne, east to Kharkiv. In some instances, Russian forces retreated in a disorganized fashion that could in one instance be considered a panic. This offensive is diverting units away from the main Russian efforts to the south.

In the southern area of the front, Izyim to Papasna region, very little success. Russia has massed the majority of its forces against the region and has gotten very little for its efforts. Russian advances continue to be severely road bound, limiting the ability to apply this combat power and exposing logistical routes. Repetition of the failure in the north.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian AF conducted 34 sorties against Azovstal in last 24 hours, including 8 sorties of strategic bombers. Also naval artillery, MLRS, UR-77 and tanks shelling the plant. Russians blew up the last bridge, used to ‘evacuate’ trapped civilians over the course of the last week.

Russian / separatist forces failed to advance northward into the Donbas region.

Crimea Front -
Odesa faced a heavy missile attack, with civilian / residential areas targeted by air and sea launched cruse missiles.

Satellite imagery shows an increase in Russian anti-air forces on Crimea. Observers believe an influx of Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems, S-300 anti-air systems, or Iskander missile launchers in Filativka could signal a new Russian advance in southern and eastern Ukraine. The satellite images also show nearly 200 combat armored vehicles of various types, possibly command and control elements. (FO)

Snake Island remains a problem for Russian forces as Ukraine exerts an economy of force like operation to harass and destroy Russian equipment and forces on and around the island.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.

The noted increases in forces in Crimea have analysts watching closely to see how they will be applied. Russia only has so many forces - far fewer than most say they need to accomplish the tactical objectives they have stated. Right now, the push northward into the Donbas region is failing even worse than the efforts in the northern and eastern fronts. The longer it takes to execute a coordinated, mutually supporting attack, the longer Ukraine has to make additional preparations and get new offensive equipment into positions. Some suspect that US artillery with laser guided rounds are already devastating Russian forces in the east. If Russia is foolish enough to try to attack westward toward Odesa, they will be further doomed and decimated. Even a push to try to capture the entire Kherson Oblast will be very costly in men and equipment and not likely to succeed.

Russia will continue to maneuver to have captured territories ‘vote’ for ‘independence’, perhaps as a step towards an exit strategy for putin to be able to declare some kind of victory.

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Russian and Transnistrian sources claimed Ukrainian forces closed the border with Moldova on May 9.
___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarus to deploy special operation forces on the border with Ukraine - General staff of Belarus

______________________________________

Poland -

Great Britain has reportedly assured Poland that they would secure the country if it releases Mig fighters to Ukraine.
_____________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Lithuanian Parliament adopted a resolution (unanimously.): - recognizing that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and its people is considered as genocide; - naming Russia a terrorist state

____________________________________

Israel -

The IDF launched the largest exercise in its history on Sunday. Thousands of soldiers and reservists will take part in the drill, dubbed “Chariots of Fire,” including the air force, navy and regular and reserve forces.

OBSERVATIONS - Tensions remain high post-Ramadan.
____________________________________

Lebanon -

Hezbollah held a large rally in Nabatiyeh today as Lebanon’s elections begin this week. Nasrallah focused on anti-American and Israel subjects. He also warned that starting at 7pm tonight, Hezbollah will be on alert after the start of the IDF’s Chariots of Fire maneuvers.
__________________________________

Wuhan virus -

Bill Gates confirmed via social media early Tuesday evening that he tested positive for COVID-19.

The Air Force admitted during a preliminary injunction hearing on Monday that it only accepted religious accommodation requests for the COVID-19 vaccine from airmen who were already exiting the service, Breitbart reported.
The branch has allegedly denied the exemption requests of over 7,595 applicants and only granted 46, an attorney representing the airmen stated in the courtroom.
The 36 airmen seeking accommodation in a federal court case in Nebraska are represented jointly by the Alliance for Free Citizens and the America First Policy Institute.
“The hearing today confirmed that the military religious accommodation process is pure theater. The answer is always no. The Air Force has granted zero accommodation requests that were not effectively early retirements,” AFC General Counsel Kris Kobach told the outlet, claiming the Air Force verbally conceded they were engaging in the practice.

OBSERVATION - No doubt that wuhan has been made a tool to fight against service men/women, ignoring the clear statements of the law.

____________________________

Economy -

April CPI data pegs inflation rate at 8.3% Economists were expecting 8.1%.

OBSERVATION - HUGE spin coming from the talking heads, however, when folks go to the grocery store they will see a different picture. Latest round of skyrocketing fuel prices have yet to make their impact on grocery and other prices. But for democrats, they want everyone to sing happy days are here again.

biden’s talk yesterday summed up in “don’t blame me” and “its not my fault”

Demand at food banks increased 45% in March, compounding on top of an increase of 30% in February, and proceeded by 20% in January. Overall, that is a 126% increase from December demand. Driving the significant uptick is inflation and low stock levels at stores. One analyst writes that this is an indicator of “lower-income households…unraveling as consumer prices” rise drastically. “Some households are at breaking points amid threats of stagflation.” Real wages are decreasing, and the price of food has increased 10% as of March compared to March of last year. (FO)

Biden on Tuesday said that he might end some of the tariffs imposed on China under former President Donald Trump in an effort to lower consumer prices. “I want every American to know that I am taking inflation very seriously and it is my top domestic priority.”

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

From yesterday’s press conference, biden said, “. . . inflation is our strength . . .” “The number one threat is the strength, and that strength that we’ve built is inflation.”
Wait . . . what?
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

The Department of Justice is remaining silent on continued protests by abortion activists outside conservative Supreme Court justices’ homes, despite a federal law that makes it illegal to attempt to “influence” federal officials and the outcome of a court case.

Three Catholic churches in Houston TX area were vandalized Monday - Holy Rosary Catholic Church, Saint Bartholomew in Katy and Saint Elizabeth Ann Seton. “At Saint Bartholomew, they tried to remove the Tabernacle, which contains the sacred presence of Christ and the Eucharist. The other church, someone tried to desecrate the Eucharist,” Father Peter Damian Harris said.
Saint Bartholomew confirmed on Facebook that its Tabernacle was stolen Sunday, and police are investigating.

Proabort and Antifa elements are continuing to plan and advertise protest marches across the country this week. So far violent attacks have been limited but Antifa and affiliated elements may try to step up their game as the weekend approaches.

FCC commissioner Brendan Carr appeared on the May 9 edition of Fox News host Maria Bartiromo’s show, Mornings with Maria, and called for President Joe Biden’s Disinformation Governance Board (DGB) to dissolve as soon as possible. “Sometimes the threats to our liberty come dressed up in sheep’s clothing, but this wolf comes as a wolf,” said Carr, citing the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. “This is Orwellian; it’s un-American; it’s unconstitutional. The very best time to shut this down was before the DHS ever announced it, the second best time is right now.”

___________________________________

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Upon hearing Elon Musk say that he would reinstate former President Donald Trump’s Twitter account if his purchase of the company is successful, the American Civil Liberties Union released a statement applauding the decision.
In a statement attributed to the organization’s executive director, Anthony D. Romero, the ACLU said that “[Y]ou’d be hard-pressed to find a more steadfast opponent of Trump and his policies than the ACLU, but Elon Musk’s decision to re-platform President Trump is the right call. When a handful of individuals possess so much power over the most important forums for political speech, they should exercise that power with restraint.

NOTE - more liberal heads exploding.

__________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments

The United States Department of Defense announced that they would be deploying 6 of the Navy’s EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare Aircraft as well as around 250 Navy Personnel to Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany before being forward deployed to NATOs eastern flank.

_________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korean food shortages are getting worse. The year started with crops reduced because of less rainfall since late 2021. More recently some snow and too much rain in some parts of the country reduced crop yields even more. In most of North Korea April was warmer than usual with less than half the usual rainfall. Springtime retail food prices are at record high levels. Starvation deaths are are reported to be occurring in the worst hit provinces.

OBSERVATION - NK has very little cash to purchase grain to make up the short fall. Hungry populations (and troops) are prime conditions for regime changes or war.

Unconfirmed reports. Unexplained lockdown in Pyongyang . Yesterday the North Korean capital an order was suddenly given to all citizens to go home. This was announced by NK News, a site specialized on North Korean events. The reason is not known, some sources have reported of a “national lockdown”, others of a “national problem”, speaking of “long queues” of people waiting for buses or any other useful means of returning to their homes.

OBSERVATION - Some NK watchers indicate that this isn’t as unusual as it may seem with similar actions taken when excessive air pollution or dust storms have come in from China.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long conflict in Ukraine and a Russian victory in the Donbas in the east of the country might not end the war, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Tuesday.

U.S. believes Russia is two weeks behind military objectives in Donbas & south. (Note - three weeks into new plan and already two behind). Putin is believed to be still striving to create a land bridge to Crimea, and keeping Kyiv on the table.

Russian oil billionaire Alexander Subbotin became on Sunday the sixth oligarch to die since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. According to a report from Breitbart, a Russian police report details that Subbotin had succumbed to his demise after a shaman had administered toad venom as a means for a hangover cure.

Logistics -
- Russia has been losing a lot of Orlan-10s drones, important for adjusting artillery fire. It appears that Ukraine has figured out how to jam the drones, causing them to abort their missions and come to the ground.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast increasing towards the end of the 10 day forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Again, incredibly, very little has happened. Russia has made very minor gains in east while Ukraine counteroffensive operation north and east of Khariv has liberated more cities and pushed closer to the Russian border.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
There are reports that the Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kharkiv region towards the north-northeast has successfully pushed Russian troops back across the Russian/Ukrainian border in a number of villages. Multiple reports say Ukrainian troops reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv Oblast Unconfirmed but solid reports that Ukrainian troops have reached the Russian border to the North-East of Kharkiv near the town of Ternova. Today the UAF General Staff announced that Russian troops have withdrawn across the border. Multiple news reports makes that seem more likely.

Pushing the offensive to the east, Ukraine has pushed most Russia forces east of the Donets River.

US and Ukraine intelligence sees indicators of more Russian forces from the Izyum area are reportedly redeploying northwards to attempt to alleviate the pressure of this counteroffensive. Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in any direction from Izyum.

Other attacks in the eastern and southern Donbas fronts resulted in very little to no advances by Russian forces.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian forces continued to conduct air and artillery strikes and ground assaults against Ukrainian positions in the Azovstal Steel Plant . Ukrainian sources state that there are over 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers, including hundreds injured, still in Azovstal plant in Mariupol

Russian forces additionally continued unsuccessful frontal assaults around Donetsk City.

Russian / separatist forces failed to advance northward into the Donbas region.

Crimea Front -
Russian and Ukraine forces clashed along a line of contact between Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts but neither side made any confirmed advances. Both sides launched artillery attacks one each other’s positions as well.

Russia is trying to reinforce exposed troops on Zmiinyi (Snake) Island, which could enable it to dominate the northwestern Black Sea, Britain’s Ministry of Defence said. Recent satellite imagery has spotted a Dyugon-class landing craft, carrying a vehicle near the island. Cargo may be a SA-15 Tor to replace the one destroyed by recent Ukrainian strike, but image resolution makes it hard to say. A second ship is a Project 22870 rescue tug, similar to that one Russia used in “Moskva” cruiser rescue op. It appears that the landing ship wreck was slightly moved, but still blocking the ramp.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.

We are now about about 4 weeks into this “Phase 2” Russian offensive to capture the Donbas region. US estimates Russian is at least 2 weeks behind schedule. Russia has very little to show for their efforts, with only minor gains in eastern Ukraine. It is estimated that Russian has been able to pull together about 96 BTGs for the effort, about two thirds of which are focused on eastern Ukraine, the rest in Crimea. However, the losses on men and equipment have caused analysts to consider some other metric to measure Russian force levels as it is believed that many of these BTGs are far below full strength. Personnel in particular, continue to have dismal morale and reportedly will sabotage their vehicles / equipment to avoid going into combat.

Russian offensive operations are still largely road bound. The effect is that they become highly targetable to Ukraine artillery attacks. One video posted showed a large part of a BTG sized element getting the snot shot out them as they tried to advance down a road.

The big story though continues to be the Ukraine offensive that is clearing Russian forces away from Kharkiv. When putin’s “phase 2” operations started, Kharkiv was nearly 3/4 surrounded by Russian forces, now only a remnant are present on the far north eastern corner of the surrounding suburb area. In some areas, Russian defenses have collapsed and a disorderly withdrawal to Russian territory ensued, similar to what happened in the north.

It has successfully reduced the ability of Russian artillery to target the northeastern suburbs of Kharkiv City, and will potentially enable Ukrainian forces to threaten Russian rear areas with their own shelling and further attacks.

If Ukraine can pivot the offensive more to the east, it could cut across key logistic lines, unhinging Russian offensive operations around Izyum. It has already succeeded in forcing the diversion of a lot of Russian units away from Izyum. Ukraine faces a big hurdle in that it would have to force a crossing of the Donets River, which could be costly, unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat and come up with a surprise of some kind.

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

In breakaway Transnistria, the local administration extended the “red” level of terrorism threat for another 15 days, until 25 May

___________________________________

Belarus -

The Belarusian Defense Ministry has announced the deployment of Military Forces including Air Defense Systems and Artillery Units to the Borders of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine due to Belarusian “Claims” that those countries are preparing aggression against Belarus.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense has also announced the deployment of multiple Special Forces Brigades to the Border with specifically Ukraine, this is in addition to Forces already being deployed.
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Finland and Sweden are expected to announce this week whether they’ll pursue NATO membership.

UK PM Boris Johnson has signed a security declaration with Sweden, pledging UK support should its military come under attack. He is expected to make the same commitment to Finland later; the PM is visiting both countries as they consider joining the Nato defense alliance
____________________________________

Israel -

Israel targeted the headquarters of the Hezbollah in Jabbatha al-Khashab in the northern countryside of Quneitra. This is the second targeting in several hours, following an rocket strike on a Hezebollah observation post.

Jordanian foreign minister says Israel has no sovereignty at the al-Aqsa mosque – it is an occupied Palestinian land and a Muslim worship place.

An Al Jazeria reporter was killed during an Israeli raid in Jenna - anti Israeli rhetoric spewing all over the inter webs, even when it may well be a Palestinian terror bullet that took her out.

____________________________________

Iran -

Izeh, SW Iran, Protests against the high price of basic goods are ongoing in Khuzestan Province. The government is trying to crush the protests that started on May 6, by arresting protesters.
__________________________________

Syria -

See Israeli strikes on Hezebollah sites above
__________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

During an appearance on CNN, FDA chief Dr. Robert Califf asserted that the leading cause of death in the United States is online “misinformation.”

OBSERVATION - the GGR plan for information control has shifted into high gear lately. The use of the term “misinformation” has been increasing across the board. Expect the GGR elements to continue to try to leverage it for more censorship.

Chula Vista is about to become the first city in America to be completely monitored by spy drones. “On a per capita basis, they’re probably the most or one of the most surveilled cities in the country,” said Brian Hofer, executive director of the Oakland-based privacy advocacy group Secure Justice. “Pretty much the minute you walk outside your front door and move about your daily life, you’re going to be tagged and tracked by some law enforcement agency, even though you’ve likely never been suspected of any wrongdoing.”
Chula Vista’s drone program didn’t come to fruition overnight. Instead, the Department of Homeland Security and other government agencies coordinated with with Chinese drone manufacturers and unscrupulous actors in Big Tech and have implemented the program over the course of several years.

OBSERVATION - 1984 style surveillance - bet Alexa and Siri are contributing too.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

See the Koreas for NK official acknowledgement of wuhan.

An analysis by ABC News of federal data found that a growing proportion of COVID-19 deaths are occurring among the vaccinated. ABC News assured its audience that “experts said the increase in breakthrough deaths is expected with more Americans reaching full vaccination status.” Wait, What??

More than 107,600 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, the highest annual death toll on record, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.
Overdose deaths increased 15% in 2021, up from an estimated 93,655 fatalities the year prior, according to a report from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The data helps illustrate one of the consequences of the pandemic, which has seen an uptick in substance abuse amid widespread unemployment and more Americans reporting mental health issues.
OBSERVATION - Secondary consequences totally ignored by the powers that be to force the unscientific lockdown on sheeple.

The US has passed more than one million Covid-related deaths, says the White House.
President Joe Biden said the country was marking “a tragic milestone” and each death was “an irreplaceable loss”.
OBSERVATION - The data we’ve pointed out since this dumpster fire started points to greatly inflated numbers from the start.
____________________________

Economy -

Wholesale prices accelerated more than expected in April as inflation continued to hover near a 40-year high . The Labor Department said Thursday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, climbed 11% in April from the previous year. On a monthly basis, prices grew by 0.5%. Although that marks a slight moderation from March’s reading of 11.2%, the gauge still came in higher than the 10.7% forecast from Refinitiv economists, suggesting inflationary pressures remain strong. Overall, prices for goods jumped 1.3% last month, the fourth consecutive rise and the biggest contributor to the headline inflation figure. That included gains for items like motor vehicles, diesel fuel and eggs.

OBSERVATION - Buckle up and stock up NOW folks. These numbers clearly indicate that high inflation is going to be with us through the summer and if biden administration deliberately bungling of economic matters continues, the fall could lead to a winter of darkness.

Baby formula crisis continues to grow. Abbott warns it will take TEN WEEKS to get baby formula products on shelves when FDA finally allows its biggest factory to reopen. Abbott was forced to shut down its major plant in Sturgis, Michigan in February, announced Wednesday that with FDA approval the site could be restarted in two weeks.
However, the manufacturer claims it will take another eight weeks before stocks of baby formula are replenished - a devastating blow for parents scrambling to find the product amid supply disruptions and Abbott’s massive safety recall.

OBSERVATION - The recall/closure was based on a bacterial related death of an infant. Investigation by the FDA has cleared Abbott of being the source. Tinfoil hat time - deliberate foot dragging by the FDA to create more economic chaos in the US. Baby formula shortages were warned about over a half a year ago as it was, this has sent it into the RED zone.

Making matters worse - According to videos posted by a Florida lawmaker, the Biden administration has been shipping “pallets” of baby formula to migrant holding facilities.
“They are sending pallets, pallets of baby formula to the border,” said Republican Rep. Kat Cammack in one of two online postings yesterday. “Meanwhile, in our own district at home, we cannot find baby formula,” she added, holding a photo of empty shelves where the formula would be.

According to the Washington Post, the average price for a gallon of gas rose to a record high of $4.37 on Tuesday – the highest price recorded since AAA began keeping track of the climb in 2000.

In spite of record gasoline prices and shortages, Biden’s administration has ceased all oil and gas leases to Alaska’s Cook Inlet and the Gulf of Mexico as of Wednesday night.
A spokesperson for the Interior Department said on Wednesday the “Cook Inlet lease sale would not proceed due to insufficient industry interest. Meanwhile, the planned sale of two leases, lease 259 and lease 261, in the Gulf of Mexico will not proceed due to contradictory court rulings on the leases,” according to The Hill.

A combination of delayed plantings in Northern U.S. Plains and Canada due to soggy weather, a dry spell in Western Europe, chaos in Ukraine, and severe weather in India, have disrupted global wheat markets, sending prices in Minneapolis to the highest levels since 2008.
According to Canadian authorities, the Red River flood this year is already the sixth-largest on record (by volume) at Emerson, Manitoba, where the river is cresting, and Ste. Agathe. In recent memory, only the 1997 and 2009 floods were larger. The deluge comes one year after the same region endured extreme drought.

Concerns coming out of China where farmers are reportedly harvesting crops before they are ready - because of weather related problems that would affect harvest at regular time. Premature harvest would likely be used for animals, while China would rely upon purchases to make up losses - applying more pressures to the global market.

OBSERVATION - Global grain supplies are becoming even more critical as already warned about shortages are continually being made worse through other natural disasters. This flood will impact planting in the Red River region.

(Reuters ) Asian stocks fell to an almost two-year low and the dollar hit its highest in two decades on Thursday as data showed U.S. inflation persistently hot, deepening investor worries about the economic toll of aggressive interest rate hikes to tame it.

Bitcoin, leading a fire-sale of risky assets as rate hikes gather steam, fell 8% to $26,570. It was near $40,000 a week ago and is 60% beneath its peak six months ago.
ETH down 23.21% in 24 hours.
BTC down 11.94% in 24 hours.
Terra, a “stablecoin” has taken a nosedive, down 97.39% in 24 hours.
Basically all major cryptos are down substantially.

U.S. dollar index hit 104.21, its highest since late 2002. Silver taking a drubbing as a result

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Illegals getting baby formula, not US citizens.
______________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Ahead of former President Donald Trump’s appearance at the American Freedom Tour’s Austin stop, numerous far-left groups are planning protests that will march to the convention center where the event is taking place. May 14, Trump as well as a number of other conservative guest speakers will be making a stop on the American Freedom Tour at the Austin Convention Center.

OBSERVATION - Expect Antifa et al to target attendees as they leave the rally and head for their cars. This is when traditionally they’ve been most vulnerable.

Proaborts targeted Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi house demanding that Pelosi do more to halt the potential USSC ruling.

In a newly released video clip, Biden disinformation czar Nina Jankowicz demands that “trustworthy verified people” like her be given the power to edit other people’s tweets, making Twitter more like Wikipedia.

The White House affirmed on Tuesday its support for protesters gathering outside of conservative Supreme Court justices’ homes in support of abortion and in opposition to a potential reversal of Roe v. Wade.

OBSERVATION - The law makes no differentiation between peaceful or unpeaceful “protests” at justices homes. biden advocates breaking the law - mob rule.

The U.S. Attorney General has directed U.S. Marshals to help protect the Supreme Court Justices. Militant far-left activists have been threatening the judges & trying to intimidate them following the leak of the draft opinion on Roe v Wade.

OBSERVATION - Garland’s hand force by bipartisan complaints against protestors threatening USSC justices. We’ll see if any get arrested.

An FBI whistleblower has revealed that ‘dozens’ of investigations into parents voicing their opposition to topics ranging from Critical Race Theory to mask mandates were investigated using a “threat tag” created by the agency’s counterterrorism division – directly contradicting Attorney General Merrick Garland’s 2021 testimony denying that the Department of Justice had been weaponized.

OBSERVATION - Perjury by the AG (and former wannabe USSC justice). Fits right in with the biden administration lawless attitude and behavior.
___________________________________

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Biden’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating Musk after he secured a deal to buy the social media company for $44 billion. According to a new report in the Wall Street Journal, the SEC is probing the paperwork filed by Musk while he was putting his deal into place. “The Securities and Exchange Commission is probing Mr. Musk’s tardy submission of a public form that investors must file when they buy more than 5% of a company’s shares,” The WSJ reports. “The disclosure functions as an early sign to shareholders and companies that a significant investor could seek to control or influence a company.”
The report said that Musk’s April 4 disclosure filing was at least 10 days late, a move that is believed to have saved him more than $140 million because share prices could have been higher if the public knew about his ownership of 5% of the company.

OBSERVATION - The powers that be cannot let twitter switch over so easily so they are going to do what they can to throw a monkey wrench into the works.
__________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments

Reestablishing the 11th Airborne Division in Alaska could entail cutting Stryker vehicles from a brigade there and adding personnel to create an operational headquarters.
But the changes are expected to be cost-neutral in the immediate future and even the manpower added to the upgraded headquarters would come out of the cannibalized Stryker brigade, should that plan move forward, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told the Senate Appropriations Committee Tuesday.
“We will be looking at basically having that division headquarters have sort of the same types of capabilities that you see in the 173rd in Italy, for example,” Wormuth said.
_________________________________

China -

On Monday, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced its Eastern Theater Command organized maritime, aerial, conventional missile and other forces around Taiwan and carried out drills around the island from Friday to Sunday. The Eastern Theater Command said the drills were intended “to test and improve the joint operations capability of multiple services and arms.”

OBSERVATION - China’s exercises are becoming larger and more complex towards Taiwan. They are moving forward with their military preparations against the island but no good time line for any attack is evident nor tactical/stratigic plans.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Now yesterday’s unexplained lockdown in Pyongyang makes sense. North Korea confirms its first-ever COVID19 case and declares a “serious emergency”, with leader Kim Jong-un ordering lockdowns across the country.

Kim Jong Un vows to overcome the outbreak, declares a “maximum emergency” quarantine control system. Kim “assured us that because of the people’s high political awareness ... we will surely overcome the emergency”: KCNA reports

OBSERVATION - This places NK in a very difficult position. It initially seems he is mimicking the tactics China is using in its Shanghai and Beijing regions. However, with serious food shortages already impacting the country this could get really ugly for citizens. Uncertain on any impact to ongoing missile tests and projected nuke test.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russia has warned that it will have to take “military-technical” steps in response to Finland’s application to join Nato. The foreign ministry accused the military alliance of seeking to create “another flank for the military threat to our country”. “Helsinki should be aware of its responsibility and the consequences of such a move,” the ministry added.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “The expansion of Nato and the approach of the alliance to our borders does not make the world and our continent more stable and secure”.
When asked whether Finland’s accession to the military alliance would be considered a threat toward Russia, Peskov answered: “Definitely”.

RUMINT -
RUMORED Presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych is claiming that Ukrainian troops have crossed the Russian border around Kharkiv. They are meant to be symbolic actions.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

RUMINT -

More effort by Russia to strike arms and munition storage sites across Ukraine.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian troops conducted artillery shelling in Horodnya district of Chernihiv region and conducted airstrike in Shostka district of Sumy region. Russian missile strike in Novhorod-Siverskiy in Chernihiv region. Russia claimed these were ammunition supply depots.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -

Russian army has limited success in offensive at Kudriashivka direction near Sieverodonetsk.

At the Bakhmut direction Russian army conducts assault actions in the direction of Pervomaisk, Komyshuvakha

Russian troops managed to cross Siversky Donets river near Lyman. Last week Russia attempted the same and it turned out to be disastrous, resulting in the loss of at least a BTG.
( 6x T-72B-series MBT, 14x BMP-1/2 variants, 7x MT-LB, a tugboat & 5+ other armored vehicles destroyed/abandoned/damaged)

These are relatively minor advances, but is the most progress Russia has accomplished in over a week.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian army launched assaults on Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove
with continuing l attacks on Stepne-Novomykhailivka, Slavne-Novomykhailivka and Oleksandrivka-Maryinka. This is the most activity seen in this sector in weeks.

Crimea Front -

Russian army shelled Zelenodolsk (between with MLRS, 1 civilian killed, another wounded. Heavy shelling all the night along frontline with incendiary and cluster ammunition.

Russian Forces shelled Mykolaiv and launched a missile at Zaporizhzhia.

A lot of RUMINT that Russia may attempt an amphibious landing in the Odesa region. Nothing firm yet.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Statement from Vyacheslav Gladkov - Belgorod governor - on alleged shelling of Russian settlement of Solokhi: ‘The worst situation during the shelling. According to confirmed information, at the moment 1 person has died and 3 wounded, they are receiving all necessary assistance’

Many unconfirmed reports coming from Belgorod tonight. Death toll reached two, a fuel depot and oil storage are on fire, aviation airborne and possible air defense activity. Some kind of missiles reported to have been launched from Belgorod, probably Iskander missiles.

Unconfirmed reports Russians starting to evacuating border villages in Belgorod province following heavy Ukrainian shelling.

OBSERVATION - Ukraine needs to be very specific in its attacks on Russian territory.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.

Minor Russian advancements in eastern Ukraine need to be watched closely. If they are able to break out, significant portions of the Ukraine forces could be trapped. However, these current attacks are once again largely road bound and vulnerable to the mobile defensive tactics Ukraine has effectively used so far.
___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

In breakaway Transnistria, the local administration extended the “red” level of terrorism threat for another 15 days, until 25 May

___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Joint statement by the President of the Republic and Prime Minister of Finland on Finland’s NATO membership: Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. Finland to announce decision on NATO bid on Sunday. NATO chief Stoltenberg says Finland entry to alliance would be ‘smooth and swift’
Finland joining NATO would ‘definitely’ represent threat to Russia according to a statement from the Kremlin

OBSERVATION - Finland and Sweden calling Russia’s bluff. Russia has a plethora of options, going as far as weaponizing Central and South American countries.

The Guardian- “Urgent measures to break the Russian blockade of grain exports from Ukraine’s ports, including by trying to open routes through Romanian and Baltic ports, will be discussed by G7 foreign and agriculture ministers at meetings in Germany.”
____________________________________

Israel -

The Palestinian minister for civilian affairs Hussein Sheikhpl confirms that the PA rejected an Israeli proposal for a joint investigation regarding the death of Shirin Abu Akleh and says the Palestinians will conduct their own investigation and update Qatar and U.S

____________________________________

Syria -

Speculation on the stability of the Assad govt as Russia pulls the bulk of its approximately 4000 troops out for the Ukraine war. Iran will increase in influence. This is born out by last weeks visit of Assad with the leaders of Iran. It will also give Hezbollah greater freedom to set up for an eventual Israeli war.
__________________________________

A little late, had an appointment this morning.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.

It has been a busy week as pieces of the GGR plans for its ‘reset’ continue to be set up.

Bill Gates, has disclosed plan to hire thousands of people to promote vaccine propaganda on social media in order to influence the gullible of society. The 3,000-plus “promoters”, according to Gates, will spam social media with pro-Big Pharma messaging and “help propagate accurate vaccine information in the future,” according to CNBC.
Gates says he wants social media to be a place with “good messages” about Big Pharma and vaccines from “people of trust in the community, such as political and ethnic leaders.”

________________________________

Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.

Between fiscal years 2010 and 2020, more than $350 million in royalties were paid by third parties to the National Institutes of Health and its scientists. Dr. Anthony Fauci received 23 royalty payments, but the NIH has yet to disclose the sum total of those payments.

OBSERVATION - What the blankety-blank are govt officials/employees doing getting royalty payments.
_____________________________

Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world. Global food shortage concerns sparking local unrest . Fed rate increases, combined with inflation data has roiled markets.

biden administration called on major stores to come up with a plan to help people purchase infant formula. Nothing on accelerating FDC clearance to allow production to resume. How do you assist in purchasing that which doesn’t exist on the store shelves.
“These steps include cutting red tape to get more infant formula to store shelves quicker by urging states to provide consumers flexibility on the types of formula they can buy with WIC dollars; calling on the FTC and state attorneys general to crack down on any price gouging or unfair market practices related to sales of infant formula, like third-party sellers reselling formula at steep prices; and increasing the supply of formula through increased exports — imports,” the press secretary said.
“I would point you to the FDA, but, again, I’d go back to why this decision was made in the first place, which was to save babies’ lives, and the FDA is not going to approve manufacturing again unless they are certain of the safety,” Psaki said.

OBSERVATION - The BS meter is pegged on this one. . . . . Meanwhile desperate parents are turning to unsafe formula alternatives because the shelves are empty. Injuring / killing more infants than were affected allegedly by the formula. If only the FDA was so vigilant in regards to the wuhan jabs. . . . .
YOU CANNOT STOCK SHELVES WITH PRODUCTS THAT DON’T EXIST.

In related - Retailers report that 43% of baby formulas are out of stock nationwide, and over 50% in some states, with shortages expected to grow.

More than $200 billion erased from entire crypto market during the recent sell-off. Investors are fleeing from cryptocurrencies at a time when stock markets have plunged from the highs of the coronavirus pandemic on fears over soaring prices and a deteriorating economic outlook.

Diesel shortages are now beginning to spread from the East Coast to other parts of country.
The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that oil refinery capacity is likely to top out this summer, limiting production of gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, as noted previously, fuel inventories remain low, especially on the East Coast where fuel shortages are now expected. There are so far unconfirmed reports of East Coast truck stops running out of diesel.
CEO of United Refining Co., John Catsimatidis said Wednesday the East Coast may experience diesel rationing and shortages this summer. “Drivers will pay the highest gasoline prices ever paid for Memorial Day,” Catsimatidis said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see diesel being rationed on the East Coast this summer,” said Catsimatidis during a phone interview, the outlet reported. “Right now inventories are low and we may see a shortage in coming months.”

Democrats “solutions” so far consist of canceling lease sales, erecting more regulatory hurdles, and attacking … “price gouging.” Bloomberg Energy reporter Javier Blas reports that Nancy Pelosi will float a bill in the House that would give Joe Biden the authority to impose price controls on gasoline

OBSERVATION - Those of us old enough remember just how well that worked in the past.

Coffee futures in New York jumped Wednesday as new weather forecasts show the world’s largest producer has increased frost risks in top growing areas.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published new forecasts that show low temperatures in Cerrado, Parana state, and Mogiana could record below 5 degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit) by May 16. In the south of Minas Gerais and Guaxupe, temperatures may trend even lower through May 19. All of the regions listed are top-producing areas for arabica beans. Arabica futures in New York jumped more than 6% to $2.16 per pound on the news. Prices are up 133% since the COVID-19 low of around $1 per pound and have faded from decade highs of $2.60 in March.

OBSERVATION - Now the end of the world has arrived.

Samsung’s contract-based chip prices are set to increase between 15-20% given the level of manufacturing complexity, Bloomberg said, citing people familiar with the matter, adding the new pricing model has been discussed and negotiated with clients.
Samsung’s decision comes as the cost of energy, raw materials, equipment, freight, and labor are rapidly soaring. The move was “inevitable,” said Masahiro Wakasugi, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst.
Another component driving the price hikes is the ongoing global chip shortage. Then there are lockdowns in China driving lead times — the lag between when a semiconductor chip is ordered and delivered — to 26.6 weeks, a record high.
Rising chip prices will only increase consumer costs for smartphones, tablets, computers, game consoles, televisions, smart speakers, automobiles, and the list goes on and on. Samsung is the world’s second-largest chip contract manufacturer.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.

Illegals get pallets of baby formula, while the biden administration tells citizens to pound sand.
______________________________

Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Leaked USSC draft decision has caused this to heat up. Pushing to borderline RED Antifa trying to piggy back proabort protests for general violence. Monitoring to see if this gains traction.

Proabort protests continue across the nation with Antifa trying to piggyback to spread violence. However, these protests haven’t gained much traction and in some ways have backfired. This weekend may be the high water mark for the current rounds of protests. More will be expected once the final decision is released.

What has been revealed is that Antifa et al have upgraded a lot of their personal equipment to include body armor and ballistic helmets. There is also an increased willingness to be armed.
_________________________________

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*

Musk and Twitter continue their dance while the US govt tries to interfere with the purchase. Leftist heads explode daily
__________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

A lot of parallel political actions in response to the USSC leak and upcoming midterms.
_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.

_________________________________

China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Expanding lock downs threaten to tank what limited economic recovery China has had post wuhan and the rest of the globe are facing new supply shortages.

See Pakistan below on defaulting loan payments.

OSINT from commercial satellite imagery indicates China has been training its military to strike U.S. Naval targets while they are still in port. Large, sophisticated target arrays that have thermal and radar signatures similar to those of the U.S. Navy surface combatants have been observed in China’s western desert bombing ranges.
China is developing pinpoint accurate ballistic missiles such as the DF-21 and DF-26 with ranges of 1000 and 2500 miles, respectively. These missiles are equipped with either thermal or radar active homing guidance systems, which can reduce the circular error probable to within a few meters, making it a potent ship-killing long-range missile.

According to the Hong Kong Post, China has approached at least five countries to discuss the stationing of naval assets. If the report is true, China wants Indonesia, Singapore, Cambodia, Thailand, and potentially others, such as the Solomon Islands, to be home to new Chinese military bases. China currently has only one known foreign military base, which is in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa.

After shutting down a Chinese-owned copper mine last month, Peruvian tribes continue to protest against mining operations and are demanding to get their ancestral land back from the Chinese. The $1.2 billion project, which supplies 2% of the world’s copper supply, was shut down last month after over a 100 protesters organized a camp out in the mining area. China has so far been unable to remove protestors.
____________________________________

North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. Meanwhile NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.

DPRK states it has over 18,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. Up to 6 deaths and about 187,000 were reportedly quarantined.

OBSERVATION - Dealing with this outbreak will intensely strain the country already on the rocks economically.
___________________________________

Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

____________________________________

Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia continues its offensive to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

*********

Russian officials continue to issue threats about Finland’s security status before joining NATO next month.

RUMINT -
- Following a string of operational and intelligence failures, Russian President Putin relieved the Federal Security Service (FSB) from intelligence support to the Ukraine war. Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) is leading the effort now as previous FSB leadership is allegedly under house arrest.

- Rumor of the day: Putin’s military chief of staff Valery Gerasimov has been “suspended”. He *did* miss Monday’s Victory Day parade, an unthinkable omission on a day celebrated in Russia with almost religious reverence. He’s the chief of staff; apart from Putin and defense minister Sergei Shoigu, no one at the parade would have been more exalted than Gerasimov. Where was he? Rampant speculation (besides the ‘suspension’) is that he may actually have been wounded in an attack while visiting the Donbas. Otherwise, why would U.S. officials are suddenly keen to make it known that they’re not helping Ukraine target Russian generals.

Equipment Issues -
- Reports that GPS receivers have been found taped to the dashboards of downed Russian Su-34s , due to poor quality of their own systems
- Some reports that Ukrainians recovering Russian military equipment such as tanks in the field, are increasingly finding repurposed semiconductors from refrigerators and other commercial appliances.

Economic Hits -
- Siemens announces its complete withdrawal from Russia

____________________________________

Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has more rain in the extended forecast. Recent dry spell hasn’t helped muddy off road conditions in eastern Ukraine and still poses a negative off road maneuver effect

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Situation in eastern Ukraine has heated up and once again become very fluid. Russian forces have managed to make some significant gains, but those gains are being aggressively challenged by Ukraine forces - See discussion under Eastern (Khariv) front below.
Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drones have been making life miserable for Russian naval and land forces around and on Snake Island. More damaged Russian vessels and more destroyed ADA systems.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine reports that Russia has deployed additional artillery units in border areas of Bryansk region to shell Chernihiv region. Areas in the region have been hit by artillery during the past week.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Ukrainan forces continue to push Russia back to the border and now most of Khariv is out of Russian artillery range. Some reports that limited cross border probes by Ukraine have occurred.

The major action is further south where it appears that Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. This assessment appears to be supported based on reports that Russian forces in Popasna are advancing north, toward Severodonetsk-Lysychansk, rather than east toward the Slovyansk-Debaltseve highway
Reports yesterday that forces have taken control of Rubizhne and have now entered Severodonetsk from the North. Ukrainian forces are conducting counter attacks in the area.

Russian entry into this more highly urbanized zone may not work well for them. It took 3 weeks dealing with smaller villages and the trend is that Russia gets bogged down every time they hit a built-up area and these areas are unlikely to be different. Once again, this is a highly fluid situation. Below is a map link showing the area of action.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSmF12TX0AMW4A9?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian digging of mass graves continues in Mariupol in an attempt to cover up war crimes at Starokrymske Cemetery on the west edge of the city. Mariupol officials believe 20,000 people have died in the city since Russian invasion, more than 4% of pre-war population.

Crimea Front -
Very little ground action across the front.

Snake Island has become a focus of attention. The island has been reinforced with at least two Serna-class (or alike) landing craft and one floating crane. Likely delivering much needed reinforcements to the island. However, they have to deal with Bayraktar TB2 drones, which reportedly have inflicted more damage on Russian naval vessels. Unconfirmed reports that a new Russian logistics ship, “Vsevolod Bobrov “ was hit by a TB2 missile near Snake Island and set on fire. Its current status is that it is ‘limping back to port’ . Landing craft also have reportedly come under fire and that at least one of the two has been hit and severely damaged.

Analysts see no sign of any near term amphibious operation

Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK -
Dynamics continue to change. Ukraine offensive threatens the western flank of the Izyum salient as well as logistical supply lines to the south. Russia OTOH appears to be trying to eat the elephant one bite at a time but questions remain on their ability to sustain this operation. Their gains have been at the cost of a significant amount of men and material. One attack this past week, the attempted bridging assault crossing of Siversky Donets river near Lyman analysts now assess the Russian as having lost a many as 2 BTGs - the worst battle for Russia since the start of the war.

You know things are tough for the Russians when they are canabilizing refrigerators for semiconductors to keep their tanks running.

Ukraine strikes on Russian naval and ADA assets on/around Snake Island will likely continue considering the success the drones are having. Damage to as many as 3-4 medium sized amphibious assault ships has degraded Russian capabilities to launch an assault on Odessa. Control of Snake Island is also important to Black Sea controls so I don’t see Russia walking away any time soon, but continued TB2 strikes will make it costly for Russian to maintain its presence there. Larger combat ships are staying away, lest they face the same fate as the “Moskva”.
____________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.

Nothing significant to report.

___________________________________

Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

The current Belarus military alert exercises are unlikely to result in any kind of invasion of Western Ukraine.
________________________________________

Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

________________________________________

Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine.

There are unconfirmed reports that the Finnish Ministry of Interior and Defense have begun to open and inspect, nuclear shelters around the country, Finland has one of the most robust and expansive nuclear bunker systems in the World able to shelter nearly the entire population.

NATO’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia met with officials from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to discuss regional security issues. The meeting comes ahead of June’s Madrid Summit, where NATO will unveil its new global security and diplomatic strategy.

Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi said European gas importers already opened accounts in rubles with Gazprom.
OBSERVATION - Natural gas was always one of the trump cards Russia held over europe and they are playing it big.

____________________________________

Pakistan - BLUE

China is threatening to shut down nearly 25 Chinese firms operating in Pakistan as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan owes a 300-billion-rupee payment to China this month for loans on infrastructure and energy projects.
The country is facing spiraling debt and a renewed insurgency by Baloch separatists and Pakistani Taliban extremists. It is doubtful, barring any debt restructuring, that Pakistan will make its payment deadline. Expect pressure from China to forfeit infrastructure projects like its port in Gwadar as payment in kind for the default.
____________________________________

Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.

____________________________________

Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

Reports that after Iranian regime increased the price of flour & subsequently bread in Iran nationwide protests broke out.
_________________________________

Syria - YELLOW

Removal of Russian forces is going to change the dynamic of power, with Iran/Hezebollah stepping into the vacuum, while Syria loses some critical firepower capability.
__________________________________

South America General- BLUE

Peru - See China above over copper mine conflict.
______________________________________

Black Swans -
Doomer and gloomer hat on - Weather impacts to global food productions will remain a major concern. However, other natural disasters can further tip the scale stressing economies and recovery. Once again, make preparations NOW for severe food and water disruptions and pay attention.

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Senate Bill 866 (SB866), passed out of the California State Senate on Thursday. SB866 – otherwise known as the Teens Choose Vaccines Act – will allow school children ages 12 and older to consent to vaccinations at school without the consent or knowledge of their parents.
The bill’s sponsor, Senator Scott Weiner (D), specifically identifies within the bill the “problem” of parents.
“PROBLEM: Minors between the ages of 12 and 17 cannot be vaccinated without parental consent unless the vaccine is specifically to prevent a disease that is sexually transmitted. This serves as a significant barrier to teen health in California, particularly in situations where parents and children hold conflicting views about vaccines.”

OBSERVATION - This is just another step in the removal of parental rights by the state in order to tear down the family. Kids become minions of the state. The GGR cannot have strong family units and ‘prosper’ the way they want.
_____________________________

Economy -
India has prohibited wheat exports with immediate effect, the government said in a notification late on Friday. Global buyers were banking on the world’s second-biggest wheat producer for supplies after exports from the Black Sea region plunged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. The Indian ban could drive up global prices to new peaks and hit poor consumers in Asia and Africa.

OBSERVATION - This will also drive up prices here as other nations get into a bidding war over any available US grain, causing producers to shift sales from domestic to foreign markets.

RELATED - Bloomberg Echos the USDA’s concerns of what’s happening globally in wheat and other grain markets.

The head of one of the four companies that control 90 percent of the U.S. market for baby formula has warned that the shortages nationwide could last until the end of the year, as President Joe Biden’s critics mocked his claim that ‘only a mind reader’ could have predicted the current crisis.
On Friday CEO of formula giant Perrigo Murray Kessler, told Reuters he expects shortages and heightened demand to last for the ‘balance of the year.’
Kessler said their factories in Ohio and Vermont are running at 115 percent capacity, to compensate for Chicago-based Abbott’s shutdown - but added that supplies would remain erratic for the remainder of 2022.
‘We have stepped up and are killing ourselves to do everything we can,’ Kessler said.

OBSERVATION - The gross lack of action by biden’s FDA to get the plant back on line speaks volumes - he wants the chaos/fear factor to remain high.

The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment plunged 9.4 percent in the early weeks of May, falling from a score of 65.2 to 59.1. That kind of plunge is rare outside of a catastrophe or a recession. It is the lowest reading since summer of 2011 when the country was locked in a battle over the debt ceiling and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the United States.
The index that tracks consumer assessments of current economic conditions dropped by 8.4 percent to 63.6 percent. The index that tracks expectations for future conditions crashed 9.9 percent to 56.3, a severe decline in economic hope.

OBSERVATION - this can be almost directly linked to a poor showing by democrats in the midterms as consumers link the party in power to the poor economy.

From California to Texas to Indiana, electric-grid operators are warning that power-generating capacity is struggling to keep up with demand, a gap that could lead to rolling blackouts during heat waves or other peak periods as soon as this year.

OBSERVATION - Power outages / brownouts will seriously impact our economy. NOTE - Solar doesn’t help unless you have it going to your own battery bank and not the grid. Home solar that goes to the grid automatically shut down if the grid shuts down, providing no benefit at all.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

A new Homeland Security Department memo acknowledges that drug cartels control the human trafficking corridors to America and are profiting from the porous southern border under Biden. Entitled “U.S. Customs and Border Protection Overview of the Southwest Border,” the 8-page redacted document describes the role of Mexican cartels and transnational, organized-criminal networks in smuggling people to the U.S. “We assess that smuggling networks are very active in promoting the flow of migrants through Mexico as drug trafficking organizations maintain control of the primary trafficking corridors into the United States,” the memo states. “The drug trafficking organizations’ control of these corridors allows them to regulate the flow of migrants as well as charge migrants a ‘tax’ ... for the right to pass through the corridors.
“Transnational criminal organizations will exploit migration flows and entrench themselves in the smuggling cycle. TCOs endanger vulnerable individuals, amass illicit profits that feed cartel violence in Mexico and along the border, and create a volatile border environment.”

Eight Mexican soldiers wounded and two human smugglers killed after intense gun battle near Chicomuselo, Chiapas. The sicarios were smuggling 18 Central American migrants who have been detained by Mexican authorities.

OBSERVATION - The trend is pretty clear, as biden abandons control of the border, the cartels are quick to fill the void. They currently have more firepower available than the Border Patrol and law enforcement. When title 42 drops (and biden will drop it regardless of any court decision to the contrary) we could see more direct confrontations between the cartels and US agencies.
______________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democrats will be targeted with subpoenas by House Republicans should the GOP take back control of the lower chamber in the upcoming midterm elections, reports CNN. They plan to do so as payback for subpoenas sent to five House Republicans by the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
_____________________________________

China -

RUMINT - According to various news reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping, 68, is suffering from a brain aneurysm. According to New Delhi-based The Times of India, Xi decided against surgery, instead choosing treatment involving traditional Chinese medicines that soften the blood vessels and shrink aneurysms. He was reportedly hospitalized at the end of 2021.
Signs of trouble appeared at far back as 2019, when Xi’s gait was observed to be “unusual with a noticeable limp,” and he reportedly had to have help sitting down.

There are also rumblings of a potential coup being planned because of the damage to the Chinese economy the current lockdowns are inflicting.

OBSERVATION - XI has not traveled outside of China in years. Some reflected that was based on his concerns of being replaced while out of country. Rumors about the state of Xi’s health have been swirling for years, with fresh speculation sparked by his unexplained absence from the Beijing Winter Olympics.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea reported 21 Covid19 deaths on Friday. Leader Kim Jong Un calling this the biggest turmoil since the founding of the country.

SK President Yoon offers to send COVID19 vaccines to North Korea.

OBSERVATION - This wuhan crisis is the most serious challenge Kim has faced and the fact that it has been announced confirms it. Monitoring for any impact to NK’s ongoing strategic weapons testing (ICBMs and nukes).

__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russia has suspended electricity supply to Finland in response to its bid to join NATO.

U.S. Defense Secretary Austin spoke with Russian defense minister Shoygu for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon says. Austin encouraged Shoygu to bring the fighting to an end.

Mikhail Kasyanov, who served as prime minister under Vladimir Putin in the early 2000s, told DW he believed that the Russian president had “already started to realize that he’s losing this war.” In an interview with DW on Friday from an undisclosed location in Europe, he said the Russian president may have been misled by his generals about the state of the war.
Kasyanov served as Putin’s first prime minister from 2000 to 2004 before being sacked, and going on to form an opposition party and run for president in 2008. He became a vocal opponent, and now lives in exile.

RUMINT -
It was also claimed yesterday by an unnamed Russian oligarch that Putin is ‘very ill with blood cancer’. The oligarch - who has close ties to the Kremlin and named only as ‘Yuri’ to protect his identity - claimed a number of the health problems Putin is believed to be suffering from are linked to him having blood cancer.
OBSERVATION - His health has been the subject of speculation this year, with his face becoming visibly puffy from what has been described as steroid use to treat one of his conditions.
Recent video footage also shows him clutching a table to steady his shaking hands.

Logistics -
- Russian telegram channels appear to be fundraising equipment for Russian forces within Ukraine, with items including holographic sights, weapon lights, and Garmin GPSs.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia’s Security Service (SBU) said Thursday that “experienced torturers” were being sent to quell an insurgency in the military and humiliate soldiers who refused to fight against Ukrainians, the Lanka Times reported. Gen. Rustam Muradov, notorious for his atrocities in Syria after Russia intervened in a 2015 civil war, was among officials sent to deal with mutinous soldiers. SPECIAL NOTE - Floggings will continue until morale improves . . . .
- The U.S. continues to see signs that Russian troops and officer are failing to obey orders or not fighting aggressively in the Donbas: senior U.S. defense official

Economic Impact
- Consumer inflation in Russia accelerated in April to 17.83% in year-on-year terms, its highest level since January 2002, data showed on Friday, as it got a boost from the volatile ruble and unprecedented western sanctions that disrupted logistics chains. But monthly inflation slowed to 1.56% in April from 7.61% in March when it staged the biggest month-on-month increase since January 1999, data from the federal statistics service Rosstat showed.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia continued with missile strikes across Ukraine. After some minor gains, Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine appears to be stalling out again.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Analysts are seeing signs that Russia is deliberately pulling out of the Kharkiv area, ceding victory to the Ukrainan. In part, maintaining an adequate defense against the Ukrainan offensive appears to have been siphoning off too many combat units needed for the fight for the Donbas further south.
Reports from Western officials and a video from an officer of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) indicate that Moscow is focused on conducting an orderly withdrawal and prioritizing getting Russians back home before allowing proxy forces to enter Russia rather than trying to hold its positions near the city. Intercepted communications from a Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) serviceman said that the Russian border patrol along the highway to Belgorod refused to let his battalion, withdrawn from around Kharkiv City, into Russia for two days.

Russian army has limited success in offensive at Kudriashivka direction near Sieverodonetsk. However, the Russian advance in this area is already showing signs of getting bogged down

Russian ground offensive from Izyum remains stalled as well. S ome analysts think that Russia may be looking at switching its effort southwards from the Bilohorivka area or northwards from Popansa. Note, Bilohorivka assault had Russians launch two disastrous river crossing operations on the Siverskyi Donets River that cost them two or more BTGs. A switch to Popansa could require substantial redeployment of units in the Izyum area.

Russian army shelled Kharkiv, Chuhuiv, Derhachi, Zolochiv and Lozova overnight

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Battle for the steel plant continues with more bombing and artillery striikes.

Heavy clashes reported near Huliaipole, but Russian/separatist forces made little to no gains.

Crimea Front -
No significant ground operations by either side as it appears both are consolidating their positions and restocking for future operations.
Russian Forces shelled Mykolaiv and launched a missile at Zaporizhzhia.

All 6 operating submarines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet went to sea from Sevastopol. These are capable of firing cruse missiles and likely indicate a significant missile strike in the near future being set up.

Ukraine efforts to dislodge Russian troops from Snake Island update - satellite imagery shows 5x vehicles visible. Barge and all ships gone, with the wrecked amphibious assault ship still visible on the ramp. A tug previously seen at the island - with cargo on the back - was 1km east of the island, headed towards Sevastopol.
After unconfirmed reports that the Russian supply ship, “Vsevolod Bobrov” was hit by a missile and on fire, it was observed pier in Sevastopol on May 14, 2022.
Images of it show e no traces of a missile or a bomb attack and no traces of a fire on board.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
According to local channels, loud explosion in Belgorod, is not connected with smoke over city, but missile launches from aviation (likely Russian heavy bombers firing cruse missiles towards Ukraine.).

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.

Russian efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, appear to have lost steam due in part to the losses caused by the attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in addition to moving into a more urbanized area. Indicators that emphasis may be changing will only slow things down further as units get repositioned and changes to offensive goals are made.

Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt at least the westernmost supply lines between Belgorod and Russian forces concentrated around Izyum. Longer range artillery supplied by EU/NATO may permit harassment of supply lines further to the east.

The Izyum salient will come under increasing pressure as the Ukraine offensive moves eastward, pinning more Russian forces into a defensive mode rather than supporting the offensive.

Ukraine forces using TB2 drones will likely continue to attack and harass Russian forces on and around Snake Island.
___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

The Transnistrian Internal Affairs Ministry claimed that unknown individuals in a car with foreign license plates thew Molotov cocktails at an oil depot and a military enlistment office in Tiraspol on May 13.
___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
The leader of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia on Friday set July 17 as a date for a referendum on joining Russia.”Anatoly Bibilov signed a decree on holding a referendum in the Republic of South Ossetia,” his office said in a statement, citing his people’s “historic aspiration” to join Russia. South Ossetia was at the centre of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 after which the Kremlin recognised the territory – along with another separatist region, Abkhazia – as an independent state and stationed military bases there.
In August 2008, Russia launched an assault against Georgia which was battling pro-Russian militia in South Ossetia, after they shelled Georgian villages. The fighting ended five days later with a European Union-mediated ceasefire but claimed more than 700 lives and displaced tens of thousands of ethnic Georgians.

Russia cut electricity to Finland on Saturday. “There is no threat to the adequacy of electricity in Finland,” the grid said, adding that power from Russia accounted for some 10% of Finland’s total power consumption

____________________________________

Israel -

Syrian media reported on Friday evening that Israeli fighter jets had attacked targets in the northwestern part of the country. Syria’s official news agency, SANA, reported that the country’s air defense systems had intercepted “hostile targets” in Masyaf, located in the Hama region. Syria also reports that 6 Air Defense crew members were killed by Israel S. of Masyaf. A Russian-made Pantsir S-1 was also destroyed.

OBSERVATON - Israel has attacked Syrian ADA assets in the past, but with the impending pullout of Russian forces, Israel may feel freer to do more.
____________________________________

Iran -

Food protests continue in Neyshabur, NE Iran where government’s state security forces tell protesters to disperse. Protesters chant: “No fear. We’re all together.” “We are not rioters. We’re hungry.” protester says.

The United States said on Friday it remained ‘far from certain’ if a nuclear deal with Iran can be revived after the European Union gave an upbeat assessment of a trip to Tehran.

OBSERVATION - Like everything the biden administration has done - these negotiations have been a joke. Iran is getting everything they want and the region will be destabilized as a result.
__________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

BlackRock, Inc., is the world’s largest asset manager with $10 trillion under management. It is also deeply tied to the WEF and will be a key player when the GGR finally pulls the trigger. As such, it is the leader in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing which seeks to force publicly-traded companies to take left-wing policy positions. However, in a short term pivot BlackRock is ditching green activism over Russia energy fears. The company said it was concerned about proposals to stop financing fossil fuel companies, including forcing them to decommission assets and setting absolute targets for reducing emissions in their supply chains.

OBSERVATION - 10 trillion in assets is huge leverage and it wields it like a club. However, this is just a temporary strategic switch, they will be back pushing companies towards the GGR’s “green” agenda after the fuel related waves from the Ukraine war pass.

_____________________________

Wuhan virus -
Growing evidence that “clinical trials” Pfizer conducted on its messenger RNA (mRNA) Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) “vaccine” appear to have been completely fraudulent, which means the company could one day be held liable for all associated injuries and deaths.

OBSERVATION - Current powers that be in Washington will try to provide as much cover for Pfizer as possible because it will also draw them into the mix when court cases start hitting. Deep pharma pockets will want to deflect this for as long as possible.
____________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Proabort protests continue across the country. Antifa, et al, are still showing up but little violence / damage has occurred. Even MSM news coverage of the protests is declining. It is appearing that, barring any significant change or new situation, that the potential for massive violence is dropping off and Antifa will need to find another horse to ride.

Pro-life groups / facilities are still a strong target for vandalism.

That horse is increasingly going to be setting up against Trump and republican political rallies in / near Antifa stronghold cities. You can expect them to assault attendees after the rally as they head back to their cars as been the MO of past years.

___________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Had to finally crack this open and brought out a wonderful deplorable moment. Biden’s attempt to appropriate the “MAGA” brand as a political attack was hardly accidental. It arose from a six-month research project to find the best way to target Republicans, helmed by Biden adviser Anita Dunn and by the Center for American Progress Action Fund, a liberal group.

Imagine - 6 months.
_____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going. Many analysts suspect a test by the end of the month.

North Korea has apparently restarted construction of a once-dormant nuclear reactor at Yongbyon that, if completed, would “dramatically increase” its capacity to manufacture plutonium for nuclear weapons, according to a sourced report combined with recent satellite images obtained by CNN.

The second reactor at Yongbyon is approximately 10 times as large as the original reactor, which had been operating since the late 1980s. Once operational, the second Yongbyon reactor could potentially enable North Korea to increase its plutonium production for nuclear weapons “by a factor of 10,” according to Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute.

This is not a cheap operation, and with NK’s current economic and wuhan problems, final completion of this restarted project could be way far down the road.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - and its war with Ukraine is now in the third month.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
According to the Ukraine Ministry of Agricultural policy, Russia has stolen at least half of million tonnes of grain.

Logistics -
- Videos of separatist conscripts show them armed with WW2 vintage rifles and steel helmets along with hodgepodge of load bearing equipment configurations.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- In Chechnya, intensive recruitment and training of new fighters is taking place with 600 new fighters were sent to Ukraine.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Yesterday Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell , John Barrasso (R-WY), Susan Collins (R-ME) and John Cornyn (R-TX) met with the Ukrainian president in a surprise visit.

Ukrainian forces are reported to have launched a counteroffensive near the Russian-held town of Izium in eastern Ukraine, according to a regional governor on Saturday. More under Outlook below.

Offensive operations by Ukrainan forces continue to press Russia back to it borders east and northeast of Kharkiv.

Russian forces appear to be setting up for a major battle to try to capture the town of Severodonetsk while continuing with missile strikes across Ukraine.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
2 missile strikes in Sumy region overnight - in Shpylivka village near Sumy and in Shostka district

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued their withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast but will likely seek to hold a line east of Vovchansk in order to protect logistical routes to combat zones further south. Though favorable terrain for a Russian defense, the supply lines are vulnerable now to Ukrainan artillery - especially from newer western supplied systems.

Russian forces are attempting to advance on the town of Zolote, roughly 30 km south of Severodonetsk. In doing so they are attempting to cut the last highway linking Severodonetsk with the rest of Ukraine via Bakhmut. They could try to strike northwest across the country from their current positions to cut that highway closer to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The Russians are extremely unlikely to be able to take Bakhmut but they may be able to cut or render unusable the highway from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk if they can advance far enough along either of these possible routes.
NOTE - The push from the south probably is due to the disastrous river crossings of the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11. The loss of as many as 2 BTGs in those crossings may have severely disrupted Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north. Russian troops made no attempts to advance in that area in the last 24 hours.

Intense fighting has been reported around Lyman, located southeast of Izyum.

New reports that Ukraine is moving its offensive push further south of Kharkiv focusing on the western side of the Izyum salient. Russian forces have stalled in this salient for weeks and have suffered high casualties and loss of equipment. Izyum was initially a key thrust to the south to envelope the greater Donbas region, but had no supporting attacks and quickly became road bound and subject to Ukrainan interdiction. I’ve noted on may posts here the vulnerability the Russians are facing and now it appears Ukraine is in the process of exploiting.

If you’ve been able to follow along, Russian objectives in the east have become smaller and smaller, and the current encirclement objective is not a certainty. Below is a link to a map that shows what I’ve been talking about here. Each attempted pincer movement has found itself stalled and heavily attritted. Three of these attempts involved Izyum, and not that area is being challenged by Ukraine offensive attacks.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSuXAnTWAAQ7noR?format=jpg&name=medium

More analysis of Russia’s biggest battle loss of the war - attempted large-scale crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna. The Russian command reportedly sent 550 servicemen of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in order to encircle Ukrainian forces near Rubizhne from the northwest. Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Russian pontoon bridges and tightly-concentrated Russian troops and equipment around them on May 11, which reportedly resulted in 485 casualties and damages to over 80 pieces of equipment. (ISW)

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Reports that Russian is using incendiary ammunition against Azovstal as bombing and artillery strikes continue.

No significant attacks elsewhere.

Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report. Situation relative stable with but continued artillery fire by both sides throughout the region.

Russian continues to try to strengthen air defense systems at Snake Island following Ukrainian drone and air strikes. Ukrainian reports that recent attacks wounded or killed 32 servicemen on Snake Island and that air/drone strikes limited ships from timely evacuations.

Western Ukraine -
4 missile strikes at a military installation in Yavoriv district of L’viv region, 2 more missiles were shot down.

Russian Territory -
Governor of Belgorod region reports one civilian wounded as result of shelling in Sereda village near border

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Ukraine shifting offensive operations southward toward Izyum, Russia continues to struggle in eastern Ukraine with limited successes, but at high cost of men and material.

With the Khariv offensive winding down, Ukraine how has more forces freed to tackle the Izyum salient. Russia has found itself stuck there for the past several weeks unable to manage any kind of significant offensive move. As a result, it appears that offensive efforts have been shifted farther to the south east. (See Fig Link above). If nothing else, the Ukraine offensive will server to freeze additional Russian forces in place and reduced those available to push on offensively. The sector of eastern Ukraine starting at Izyum and to the south - southeast has been the most active in the country and has received the most resources to carry out the war. I expect that Russia will work VERY hard to gain an encirclement of Severodonetsk before the impacts of the pending Izyum offensive can be felt. I also expect this battle to be another slugfest - Russians haven’t done well in urban combat situations. It has taken them weeks to push through small villages just to get to where they are.

Russian / Ukrainan actions elsewhere appear to be consolidating positions. Ukrainan offensives in eastern Crimea front have secured that area from another attempt by Russian ground forces to push towards Odesa, and locked up units that are needed in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine strikes on Russian amphibious vessels and the “Moskva” have essentially neutered any forced amphibious operation to the west of Odesa. Plus the arrival of more anti-ship weapons would make any Russian assault there a death trap.
___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Transnistrian forces returned to normal operations while Russian forces remained on high alert, which could indicate disagreements between the self-declared Transnistrian government and Russia.
___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday said Turkey did not have a “positive opinion” on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, throwing up a potential obstacle for the nations’ membership bid. The leader of NATO-member Turkey spoke ahead of expected confirmations from the Nordic nations on Sunday that they will apply to join the Western military alliance. Erdogan accused both countries of harboring “terrorist organizations” in his unfavorable assessment of the membership bids. These “organizations” are Kurdish groups.

OBSERVATION - Turkey ruffling the feathers of NATO acceptance of Finland and Sweden into the group. Most likely seeking concessions since they were made outcasts by doing the S400 deal with Russia last year. Their ‘objections’ do not appear to be the hardened roadblocks to NATO membership though.

____________________________________

Israel -

Terror attacks by groups/individuals coming out of primary the west bank town of Jenin are keeping Israeli forces on alert.
____________________________________

Lebanon -

Lebanon headed to the polls today for its first election since multiple crises dragged it to the brink of failed statehood, with the ruling elite expected to comfortably weather public anger.
The parliamentary election is a first test for opposition movements spawned by an unprecedented anti-establishment uprising in 2019 that briefly raised hopes of regime change in Lebanon.
The outgoing chamber was dominated by the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah and its two main allies: the Shiite Amal party of Speaker Nabih Berri and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement of President Michel Aoun. “It seems almost impossible to imagine Lebanon voting for more of the same — and yet that appears to be the likeliest outcome,” said Sam Heller, an analyst with the Century Foundation.

OBSERVATION - The ruling elite capitalized on the fragmented nature of the Lebanese society that prevented opposition groups from getting any kind of national support.
__________________________________

Turkey -

See Europe / NATO General above.

______________________________________

Central / South America General-

With annual inflation up 58% in April, there is pressure on Argentina’s government to introduce effective countermeasures. Tens of thousands of people have protested on the streets. On Thursday, up to 100,000 people participated in a march for employment and fair wages and against hunger and poverty on the Plaza de Mayo in the center of Buenos Aires organized by the workers movement Unidad Piquetera (Picketers Union), as part of widespread protests across Argentina.

OBSERVATION - Riots and protests over inflation and FOOD related issues increasing globally. I see this as a harbinger of things to come, really hitting this fall if the trends I see pan out. Central and South America are starting to reach a critical level.
______________________________________

Black Swans -

I know I’ve harped about it a lot, but crops are endangered globally with resulting potential for food shortages beyond what we currently see and forecast. A severe natural disaster can easily throw off food production even further. These disasters can be anything from severe earthquakes, to hurricanes (and associated flooding and destruction) to intensifying drought conditions, and more.

One black swan I’ve been watching has been solar activity. Already over the past couple months an aggressive start to the new solar cycle has triggered nearly a dozen X-class solar flares. Sunspot activity has been way above the projected numbers expected from last year’s solar minimum. Our modern grid faces great unknowns of a large X-class flare - magnitude 15 or higher IMHO, directly hits the planet. All of the major CME hits have been now nearly 100 years ago with the exception of the one that took out the Quebec power grid in 1989. That event saw two the explosions (an X4.5 on March 10th and an M7.3 on March 12th) that targeted Earth with CMEs. It took the grid off line for 9 hours.

I can only say - stock up now because as we move deeper into 2022 into 2023 to do so will only become harder and harder.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.