Replies

Wuhan virus -

Bill Gates confirmed via social media early Tuesday evening that he tested positive for COVID-19.

The Air Force admitted during a preliminary injunction hearing on Monday that it only accepted religious accommodation requests for the COVID-19 vaccine from airmen who were already exiting the service, Breitbart reported.
The branch has allegedly denied the exemption requests of over 7,595 applicants and only granted 46, an attorney representing the airmen stated in the courtroom.
The 36 airmen seeking accommodation in a federal court case in Nebraska are represented jointly by the Alliance for Free Citizens and the America First Policy Institute.
“The hearing today confirmed that the military religious accommodation process is pure theater. The answer is always no. The Air Force has granted zero accommodation requests that were not effectively early retirements,” AFC General Counsel Kris Kobach told the outlet, claiming the Air Force verbally conceded they were engaging in the practice.

OBSERVATION - No doubt that wuhan has been made a tool to fight against service men/women, ignoring the clear statements of the law.

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Economy -

April CPI data pegs inflation rate at 8.3% Economists were expecting 8.1%.

OBSERVATION - HUGE spin coming from the talking heads, however, when folks go to the grocery store they will see a different picture. Latest round of skyrocketing fuel prices have yet to make their impact on grocery and other prices. But for democrats, they want everyone to sing happy days are here again.

biden’s talk yesterday summed up in “don’t blame me” and “its not my fault”

Demand at food banks increased 45% in March, compounding on top of an increase of 30% in February, and proceeded by 20% in January. Overall, that is a 126% increase from December demand. Driving the significant uptick is inflation and low stock levels at stores. One analyst writes that this is an indicator of “lower-income households…unraveling as consumer prices” rise drastically. “Some households are at breaking points amid threats of stagflation.” Real wages are decreasing, and the price of food has increased 10% as of March compared to March of last year. (FO)

Biden on Tuesday said that he might end some of the tariffs imposed on China under former President Donald Trump in an effort to lower consumer prices. “I want every American to know that I am taking inflation very seriously and it is my top domestic priority.”

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Biden / Harris watch -

From yesterday’s press conference, biden said, “. . . inflation is our strength . . .” “The number one threat is the strength, and that strength that we’ve built is inflation.”
Wait . . . what?
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CW2/Domestic violence -

The Department of Justice is remaining silent on continued protests by abortion activists outside conservative Supreme Court justices’ homes, despite a federal law that makes it illegal to attempt to “influence” federal officials and the outcome of a court case.

Three Catholic churches in Houston TX area were vandalized Monday - Holy Rosary Catholic Church, Saint Bartholomew in Katy and Saint Elizabeth Ann Seton. “At Saint Bartholomew, they tried to remove the Tabernacle, which contains the sacred presence of Christ and the Eucharist. The other church, someone tried to desecrate the Eucharist,” Father Peter Damian Harris said.
Saint Bartholomew confirmed on Facebook that its Tabernacle was stolen Sunday, and police are investigating.

Proabort and Antifa elements are continuing to plan and advertise protest marches across the country this week. So far violent attacks have been limited but Antifa and affiliated elements may try to step up their game as the weekend approaches.

FCC commissioner Brendan Carr appeared on the May 9 edition of Fox News host Maria Bartiromo’s show, Mornings with Maria, and called for President Joe Biden’s Disinformation Governance Board (DGB) to dissolve as soon as possible. “Sometimes the threats to our liberty come dressed up in sheep’s clothing, but this wolf comes as a wolf,” said Carr, citing the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. “This is Orwellian; it’s un-American; it’s unconstitutional. The very best time to shut this down was before the DHS ever announced it, the second best time is right now.”

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Upon hearing Elon Musk say that he would reinstate former President Donald Trump’s Twitter account if his purchase of the company is successful, the American Civil Liberties Union released a statement applauding the decision.
In a statement attributed to the organization’s executive director, Anthony D. Romero, the ACLU said that “[Y]ou’d be hard-pressed to find a more steadfast opponent of Trump and his policies than the ACLU, but Elon Musk’s decision to re-platform President Trump is the right call. When a handful of individuals possess so much power over the most important forums for political speech, they should exercise that power with restraint.

NOTE - more liberal heads exploding.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments

The United States Department of Defense announced that they would be deploying 6 of the Navy’s EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare Aircraft as well as around 250 Navy Personnel to Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany before being forward deployed to NATOs eastern flank.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korean food shortages are getting worse. The year started with crops reduced because of less rainfall since late 2021. More recently some snow and too much rain in some parts of the country reduced crop yields even more. In most of North Korea April was warmer than usual with less than half the usual rainfall. Springtime retail food prices are at record high levels. Starvation deaths are are reported to be occurring in the worst hit provinces.

OBSERVATION - NK has very little cash to purchase grain to make up the short fall. Hungry populations (and troops) are prime conditions for regime changes or war.

Unconfirmed reports. Unexplained lockdown in Pyongyang . Yesterday the North Korean capital an order was suddenly given to all citizens to go home. This was announced by NK News, a site specialized on North Korean events. The reason is not known, some sources have reported of a “national lockdown”, others of a “national problem”, speaking of “long queues” of people waiting for buses or any other useful means of returning to their homes.

OBSERVATION - Some NK watchers indicate that this isn’t as unusual as it may seem with similar actions taken when excessive air pollution or dust storms have come in from China.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long conflict in Ukraine and a Russian victory in the Donbas in the east of the country might not end the war, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Tuesday.

U.S. believes Russia is two weeks behind military objectives in Donbas & south. (Note - three weeks into new plan and already two behind). Putin is believed to be still striving to create a land bridge to Crimea, and keeping Kyiv on the table.

Russian oil billionaire Alexander Subbotin became on Sunday the sixth oligarch to die since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. According to a report from Breitbart, a Russian police report details that Subbotin had succumbed to his demise after a shaman had administered toad venom as a means for a hangover cure.

Logistics -
- Russia has been losing a lot of Orlan-10s drones, important for adjusting artillery fire. It appears that Ukraine has figured out how to jam the drones, causing them to abort their missions and come to the ground.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast increasing towards the end of the 10 day forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Again, incredibly, very little has happened. Russia has made very minor gains in east while Ukraine counteroffensive operation north and east of Khariv has liberated more cities and pushed closer to the Russian border.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
There are reports that the Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kharkiv region towards the north-northeast has successfully pushed Russian troops back across the Russian/Ukrainian border in a number of villages. Multiple reports say Ukrainian troops reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv Oblast Unconfirmed but solid reports that Ukrainian troops have reached the Russian border to the North-East of Kharkiv near the town of Ternova. Today the UAF General Staff announced that Russian troops have withdrawn across the border. Multiple news reports makes that seem more likely.

Pushing the offensive to the east, Ukraine has pushed most Russia forces east of the Donets River.

US and Ukraine intelligence sees indicators of more Russian forces from the Izyum area are reportedly redeploying northwards to attempt to alleviate the pressure of this counteroffensive. Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in any direction from Izyum.

Other attacks in the eastern and southern Donbas fronts resulted in very little to no advances by Russian forces.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian forces continued to conduct air and artillery strikes and ground assaults against Ukrainian positions in the Azovstal Steel Plant . Ukrainian sources state that there are over 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers, including hundreds injured, still in Azovstal plant in Mariupol

Russian forces additionally continued unsuccessful frontal assaults around Donetsk City.

Russian / separatist forces failed to advance northward into the Donbas region.

Crimea Front -
Russian and Ukraine forces clashed along a line of contact between Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts but neither side made any confirmed advances. Both sides launched artillery attacks one each other’s positions as well.

Russia is trying to reinforce exposed troops on Zmiinyi (Snake) Island, which could enable it to dominate the northwestern Black Sea, Britain’s Ministry of Defence said. Recent satellite imagery has spotted a Dyugon-class landing craft, carrying a vehicle near the island. Cargo may be a SA-15 Tor to replace the one destroyed by recent Ukrainian strike, but image resolution makes it hard to say. A second ship is a Project 22870 rescue tug, similar to that one Russia used in “Moskva” cruiser rescue op. It appears that the landing ship wreck was slightly moved, but still blocking the ramp.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.

We are now about about 4 weeks into this “Phase 2” Russian offensive to capture the Donbas region. US estimates Russian is at least 2 weeks behind schedule. Russia has very little to show for their efforts, with only minor gains in eastern Ukraine. It is estimated that Russian has been able to pull together about 96 BTGs for the effort, about two thirds of which are focused on eastern Ukraine, the rest in Crimea. However, the losses on men and equipment have caused analysts to consider some other metric to measure Russian force levels as it is believed that many of these BTGs are far below full strength. Personnel in particular, continue to have dismal morale and reportedly will sabotage their vehicles / equipment to avoid going into combat.

Russian offensive operations are still largely road bound. The effect is that they become highly targetable to Ukraine artillery attacks. One video posted showed a large part of a BTG sized element getting the snot shot out them as they tried to advance down a road.

The big story though continues to be the Ukraine offensive that is clearing Russian forces away from Kharkiv. When putin’s “phase 2” operations started, Kharkiv was nearly 3/4 surrounded by Russian forces, now only a remnant are present on the far north eastern corner of the surrounding suburb area. In some areas, Russian defenses have collapsed and a disorderly withdrawal to Russian territory ensued, similar to what happened in the north.

It has successfully reduced the ability of Russian artillery to target the northeastern suburbs of Kharkiv City, and will potentially enable Ukrainian forces to threaten Russian rear areas with their own shelling and further attacks.

If Ukraine can pivot the offensive more to the east, it could cut across key logistic lines, unhinging Russian offensive operations around Izyum. It has already succeeded in forcing the diversion of a lot of Russian units away from Izyum. Ukraine faces a big hurdle in that it would have to force a crossing of the Donets River, which could be costly, unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat and come up with a surprise of some kind.

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Moldova/Transnistria -

In breakaway Transnistria, the local administration extended the “red” level of terrorism threat for another 15 days, until 25 May

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Belarus -

The Belarusian Defense Ministry has announced the deployment of Military Forces including Air Defense Systems and Artillery Units to the Borders of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine due to Belarusian “Claims” that those countries are preparing aggression against Belarus.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense has also announced the deployment of multiple Special Forces Brigades to the Border with specifically Ukraine, this is in addition to Forces already being deployed.
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Europe / NATO General -

Finland and Sweden are expected to announce this week whether they’ll pursue NATO membership.

UK PM Boris Johnson has signed a security declaration with Sweden, pledging UK support should its military come under attack. He is expected to make the same commitment to Finland later; the PM is visiting both countries as they consider joining the Nato defense alliance
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Israel -

Israel targeted the headquarters of the Hezbollah in Jabbatha al-Khashab in the northern countryside of Quneitra. This is the second targeting in several hours, following an rocket strike on a Hezebollah observation post.

Jordanian foreign minister says Israel has no sovereignty at the al-Aqsa mosque – it is an occupied Palestinian land and a Muslim worship place.

An Al Jazeria reporter was killed during an Israeli raid in Jenna - anti Israeli rhetoric spewing all over the inter webs, even when it may well be a Palestinian terror bullet that took her out.

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Iran -

Izeh, SW Iran, Protests against the high price of basic goods are ongoing in Khuzestan Province. The government is trying to crush the protests that started on May 6, by arresting protesters.
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Syria -

See Israeli strikes on Hezebollah sites above
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Globalism / Great Reset -

During an appearance on CNN, FDA chief Dr. Robert Califf asserted that the leading cause of death in the United States is online “misinformation.”

OBSERVATION - the GGR plan for information control has shifted into high gear lately. The use of the term “misinformation” has been increasing across the board. Expect the GGR elements to continue to try to leverage it for more censorship.

Chula Vista is about to become the first city in America to be completely monitored by spy drones. “On a per capita basis, they’re probably the most or one of the most surveilled cities in the country,” said Brian Hofer, executive director of the Oakland-based privacy advocacy group Secure Justice. “Pretty much the minute you walk outside your front door and move about your daily life, you’re going to be tagged and tracked by some law enforcement agency, even though you’ve likely never been suspected of any wrongdoing.”
Chula Vista’s drone program didn’t come to fruition overnight. Instead, the Department of Homeland Security and other government agencies coordinated with with Chinese drone manufacturers and unscrupulous actors in Big Tech and have implemented the program over the course of several years.

OBSERVATION - 1984 style surveillance - bet Alexa and Siri are contributing too.
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Wuhan virus -

See the Koreas for NK official acknowledgement of wuhan.

An analysis by ABC News of federal data found that a growing proportion of COVID-19 deaths are occurring among the vaccinated. ABC News assured its audience that “experts said the increase in breakthrough deaths is expected with more Americans reaching full vaccination status.” Wait, What??

More than 107,600 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, the highest annual death toll on record, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.
Overdose deaths increased 15% in 2021, up from an estimated 93,655 fatalities the year prior, according to a report from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The data helps illustrate one of the consequences of the pandemic, which has seen an uptick in substance abuse amid widespread unemployment and more Americans reporting mental health issues.
OBSERVATION - Secondary consequences totally ignored by the powers that be to force the unscientific lockdown on sheeple.

The US has passed more than one million Covid-related deaths, says the White House.
President Joe Biden said the country was marking “a tragic milestone” and each death was “an irreplaceable loss”.
OBSERVATION - The data we’ve pointed out since this dumpster fire started points to greatly inflated numbers from the start.
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Economy -

Wholesale prices accelerated more than expected in April as inflation continued to hover near a 40-year high . The Labor Department said Thursday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, climbed 11% in April from the previous year. On a monthly basis, prices grew by 0.5%. Although that marks a slight moderation from March’s reading of 11.2%, the gauge still came in higher than the 10.7% forecast from Refinitiv economists, suggesting inflationary pressures remain strong. Overall, prices for goods jumped 1.3% last month, the fourth consecutive rise and the biggest contributor to the headline inflation figure. That included gains for items like motor vehicles, diesel fuel and eggs.

OBSERVATION - Buckle up and stock up NOW folks. These numbers clearly indicate that high inflation is going to be with us through the summer and if biden administration deliberately bungling of economic matters continues, the fall could lead to a winter of darkness.

Baby formula crisis continues to grow. Abbott warns it will take TEN WEEKS to get baby formula products on shelves when FDA finally allows its biggest factory to reopen. Abbott was forced to shut down its major plant in Sturgis, Michigan in February, announced Wednesday that with FDA approval the site could be restarted in two weeks.
However, the manufacturer claims it will take another eight weeks before stocks of baby formula are replenished - a devastating blow for parents scrambling to find the product amid supply disruptions and Abbott’s massive safety recall.

OBSERVATION - The recall/closure was based on a bacterial related death of an infant. Investigation by the FDA has cleared Abbott of being the source. Tinfoil hat time - deliberate foot dragging by the FDA to create more economic chaos in the US. Baby formula shortages were warned about over a half a year ago as it was, this has sent it into the RED zone.

Making matters worse - According to videos posted by a Florida lawmaker, the Biden administration has been shipping “pallets” of baby formula to migrant holding facilities.
“They are sending pallets, pallets of baby formula to the border,” said Republican Rep. Kat Cammack in one of two online postings yesterday. “Meanwhile, in our own district at home, we cannot find baby formula,” she added, holding a photo of empty shelves where the formula would be.

According to the Washington Post, the average price for a gallon of gas rose to a record high of $4.37 on Tuesday – the highest price recorded since AAA began keeping track of the climb in 2000.

In spite of record gasoline prices and shortages, Biden’s administration has ceased all oil and gas leases to Alaska’s Cook Inlet and the Gulf of Mexico as of Wednesday night.
A spokesperson for the Interior Department said on Wednesday the “Cook Inlet lease sale would not proceed due to insufficient industry interest. Meanwhile, the planned sale of two leases, lease 259 and lease 261, in the Gulf of Mexico will not proceed due to contradictory court rulings on the leases,” according to The Hill.

A combination of delayed plantings in Northern U.S. Plains and Canada due to soggy weather, a dry spell in Western Europe, chaos in Ukraine, and severe weather in India, have disrupted global wheat markets, sending prices in Minneapolis to the highest levels since 2008.
According to Canadian authorities, the Red River flood this year is already the sixth-largest on record (by volume) at Emerson, Manitoba, where the river is cresting, and Ste. Agathe. In recent memory, only the 1997 and 2009 floods were larger. The deluge comes one year after the same region endured extreme drought.

Concerns coming out of China where farmers are reportedly harvesting crops before they are ready - because of weather related problems that would affect harvest at regular time. Premature harvest would likely be used for animals, while China would rely upon purchases to make up losses - applying more pressures to the global market.

OBSERVATION - Global grain supplies are becoming even more critical as already warned about shortages are continually being made worse through other natural disasters. This flood will impact planting in the Red River region.

(Reuters ) Asian stocks fell to an almost two-year low and the dollar hit its highest in two decades on Thursday as data showed U.S. inflation persistently hot, deepening investor worries about the economic toll of aggressive interest rate hikes to tame it.

Bitcoin, leading a fire-sale of risky assets as rate hikes gather steam, fell 8% to $26,570. It was near $40,000 a week ago and is 60% beneath its peak six months ago.
ETH down 23.21% in 24 hours.
BTC down 11.94% in 24 hours.
Terra, a “stablecoin” has taken a nosedive, down 97.39% in 24 hours.
Basically all major cryptos are down substantially.

U.S. dollar index hit 104.21, its highest since late 2002. Silver taking a drubbing as a result

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Invasion of Illegals -

Illegals getting baby formula, not US citizens.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Ahead of former President Donald Trump’s appearance at the American Freedom Tour’s Austin stop, numerous far-left groups are planning protests that will march to the convention center where the event is taking place. May 14, Trump as well as a number of other conservative guest speakers will be making a stop on the American Freedom Tour at the Austin Convention Center.

OBSERVATION - Expect Antifa et al to target attendees as they leave the rally and head for their cars. This is when traditionally they’ve been most vulnerable.

Proaborts targeted Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi house demanding that Pelosi do more to halt the potential USSC ruling.

In a newly released video clip, Biden disinformation czar Nina Jankowicz demands that “trustworthy verified people” like her be given the power to edit other people’s tweets, making Twitter more like Wikipedia.

The White House affirmed on Tuesday its support for protesters gathering outside of conservative Supreme Court justices’ homes in support of abortion and in opposition to a potential reversal of Roe v. Wade.

OBSERVATION - The law makes no differentiation between peaceful or unpeaceful “protests” at justices homes. biden advocates breaking the law - mob rule.

The U.S. Attorney General has directed U.S. Marshals to help protect the Supreme Court Justices. Militant far-left activists have been threatening the judges & trying to intimidate them following the leak of the draft opinion on Roe v Wade.

OBSERVATION - Garland’s hand force by bipartisan complaints against protestors threatening USSC justices. We’ll see if any get arrested.

An FBI whistleblower has revealed that ‘dozens’ of investigations into parents voicing their opposition to topics ranging from Critical Race Theory to mask mandates were investigated using a “threat tag” created by the agency’s counterterrorism division – directly contradicting Attorney General Merrick Garland’s 2021 testimony denying that the Department of Justice had been weaponized.

OBSERVATION - Perjury by the AG (and former wannabe USSC justice). Fits right in with the biden administration lawless attitude and behavior.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Biden’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating Musk after he secured a deal to buy the social media company for $44 billion. According to a new report in the Wall Street Journal, the SEC is probing the paperwork filed by Musk while he was putting his deal into place. “The Securities and Exchange Commission is probing Mr. Musk’s tardy submission of a public form that investors must file when they buy more than 5% of a company’s shares,” The WSJ reports. “The disclosure functions as an early sign to shareholders and companies that a significant investor could seek to control or influence a company.”
The report said that Musk’s April 4 disclosure filing was at least 10 days late, a move that is believed to have saved him more than $140 million because share prices could have been higher if the public knew about his ownership of 5% of the company.

OBSERVATION - The powers that be cannot let twitter switch over so easily so they are going to do what they can to throw a monkey wrench into the works.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

Reestablishing the 11th Airborne Division in Alaska could entail cutting Stryker vehicles from a brigade there and adding personnel to create an operational headquarters.
But the changes are expected to be cost-neutral in the immediate future and even the manpower added to the upgraded headquarters would come out of the cannibalized Stryker brigade, should that plan move forward, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told the Senate Appropriations Committee Tuesday.
“We will be looking at basically having that division headquarters have sort of the same types of capabilities that you see in the 173rd in Italy, for example,” Wormuth said.
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China -

On Monday, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced its Eastern Theater Command organized maritime, aerial, conventional missile and other forces around Taiwan and carried out drills around the island from Friday to Sunday. The Eastern Theater Command said the drills were intended “to test and improve the joint operations capability of multiple services and arms.”

OBSERVATION - China’s exercises are becoming larger and more complex towards Taiwan. They are moving forward with their military preparations against the island but no good time line for any attack is evident nor tactical/stratigic plans.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Now yesterday’s unexplained lockdown in Pyongyang makes sense. North Korea confirms its first-ever COVID19 case and declares a “serious emergency”, with leader Kim Jong-un ordering lockdowns across the country.

Kim Jong Un vows to overcome the outbreak, declares a “maximum emergency” quarantine control system. Kim “assured us that because of the people’s high political awareness ... we will surely overcome the emergency”: KCNA reports

OBSERVATION - This places NK in a very difficult position. It initially seems he is mimicking the tactics China is using in its Shanghai and Beijing regions. However, with serious food shortages already impacting the country this could get really ugly for citizens. Uncertain on any impact to ongoing missile tests and projected nuke test.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia has warned that it will have to take “military-technical” steps in response to Finland’s application to join Nato. The foreign ministry accused the military alliance of seeking to create “another flank for the military threat to our country”. “Helsinki should be aware of its responsibility and the consequences of such a move,” the ministry added.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “The expansion of Nato and the approach of the alliance to our borders does not make the world and our continent more stable and secure”.
When asked whether Finland’s accession to the military alliance would be considered a threat toward Russia, Peskov answered: “Definitely”.

RUMINT -
RUMORED Presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych is claiming that Ukrainian troops have crossed the Russian border around Kharkiv. They are meant to be symbolic actions.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

RUMINT -

More effort by Russia to strike arms and munition storage sites across Ukraine.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian troops conducted artillery shelling in Horodnya district of Chernihiv region and conducted airstrike in Shostka district of Sumy region. Russian missile strike in Novhorod-Siverskiy in Chernihiv region. Russia claimed these were ammunition supply depots.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -

Russian army has limited success in offensive at Kudriashivka direction near Sieverodonetsk.

At the Bakhmut direction Russian army conducts assault actions in the direction of Pervomaisk, Komyshuvakha

Russian troops managed to cross Siversky Donets river near Lyman. Last week Russia attempted the same and it turned out to be disastrous, resulting in the loss of at least a BTG.
( 6x T-72B-series MBT, 14x BMP-1/2 variants, 7x MT-LB, a tugboat & 5+ other armored vehicles destroyed/abandoned/damaged)

These are relatively minor advances, but is the most progress Russia has accomplished in over a week.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian army launched assaults on Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove
with continuing l attacks on Stepne-Novomykhailivka, Slavne-Novomykhailivka and Oleksandrivka-Maryinka. This is the most activity seen in this sector in weeks.

Crimea Front -

Russian army shelled Zelenodolsk (between with MLRS, 1 civilian killed, another wounded. Heavy shelling all the night along frontline with incendiary and cluster ammunition.

Russian Forces shelled Mykolaiv and launched a missile at Zaporizhzhia.

A lot of RUMINT that Russia may attempt an amphibious landing in the Odesa region. Nothing firm yet.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Statement from Vyacheslav Gladkov - Belgorod governor - on alleged shelling of Russian settlement of Solokhi: ‘The worst situation during the shelling. According to confirmed information, at the moment 1 person has died and 3 wounded, they are receiving all necessary assistance’

Many unconfirmed reports coming from Belgorod tonight. Death toll reached two, a fuel depot and oil storage are on fire, aviation airborne and possible air defense activity. Some kind of missiles reported to have been launched from Belgorod, probably Iskander missiles.

Unconfirmed reports Russians starting to evacuating border villages in Belgorod province following heavy Ukrainian shelling.

OBSERVATION - Ukraine needs to be very specific in its attacks on Russian territory.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.

Minor Russian advancements in eastern Ukraine need to be watched closely. If they are able to break out, significant portions of the Ukraine forces could be trapped. However, these current attacks are once again largely road bound and vulnerable to the mobile defensive tactics Ukraine has effectively used so far.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

In breakaway Transnistria, the local administration extended the “red” level of terrorism threat for another 15 days, until 25 May

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Europe / NATO General -

Joint statement by the President of the Republic and Prime Minister of Finland on Finland’s NATO membership: Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. Finland to announce decision on NATO bid on Sunday. NATO chief Stoltenberg says Finland entry to alliance would be ‘smooth and swift’
Finland joining NATO would ‘definitely’ represent threat to Russia according to a statement from the Kremlin

OBSERVATION - Finland and Sweden calling Russia’s bluff. Russia has a plethora of options, going as far as weaponizing Central and South American countries.

The Guardian- “Urgent measures to break the Russian blockade of grain exports from Ukraine’s ports, including by trying to open routes through Romanian and Baltic ports, will be discussed by G7 foreign and agriculture ministers at meetings in Germany.”
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Israel -

The Palestinian minister for civilian affairs Hussein Sheikhpl confirms that the PA rejected an Israeli proposal for a joint investigation regarding the death of Shirin Abu Akleh and says the Palestinians will conduct their own investigation and update Qatar and U.S

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Syria -

Speculation on the stability of the Assad govt as Russia pulls the bulk of its approximately 4000 troops out for the Ukraine war. Iran will increase in influence. This is born out by last weeks visit of Assad with the leaders of Iran. It will also give Hezbollah greater freedom to set up for an eventual Israeli war.
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