This will be more of a summary, too much over the week end for details and I’m trying to catch up. More details will be in tomorrows report.
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Biden / Harris watch -
“Dr” biden went to Poland, brandon stayed home in Delaware.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Riots/protests over the pending Roe v Wade final decision were relatively subdued. A few catholic churches in LA, NYC and Seattle made the news as protestors vandalized some and tried to disrupt mass on Sunday. A pro-life organization office in Wisconsin was it with a firebomb. Justices Roberts and Kavinaugh’s homes were protested over the weekend as well. Threats against Justice Alito cause him and his family to go into protective relocation, as well as the rest of the court.
OBSERVATION - So far these protests have remained restrained and relatively calm. The potential for serious violence hasn’t gained traction. I think partly due to the sheeple more concerned about economic matters and various mouthpieces on the left realizing that legality will rest the individual states , to not a blanket outlawing.
Rhetoric from the proabort side still is at a high, shrill note so I would say we are not out of the woods yet.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments
The U.S. Army redesignated Alaska-based units into the 11th Airborne Division, which will remain tasked to defend the Arctic. The name change comes as the Army tries to develop a “sense of identity” for soldiers stationed in Alaska.
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China -
Repeated air incursions of Taiwan over the weekend
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
New SK govt installed today. The new president Yoon Suk-yeol is promising to take a very hard line on North Korea. Stances Include:
- Willing to conduct Preemptive Strike
- Comprehensive Alliance with US
- Nuclear Capability
- Improved Intel
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Putin gave his “Victory Day” speech overnight and it was largely a nothing burger. He did not declare victory in Ukraine nor make the call for war and a military call up. the parade was noticeably smaller than previous years with no flyover.
RUMINT -
- Rumors that Russian Generals are stabbing each other in the back to avoid being linked to the Ukrainian dumpster fire.
- More reports allege that Russian generals in theater are disobeying orders from Moscow.
Logistics -
- Senior defense official says Russia has “blown through” its PGM stockpile and is having trouble replenishing. “They are having inventory issues,” senior defense official says.
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 700 IFVs since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- It is being reported that Russia is pulling all of its forces out of Syria - about 4000 in all, comprised mostly of officers. It is believed that its facilities and bases will be turned over to either Syria or Iran (Hezebollah)
Economic Impact
- EU looking at a total gas ban from Russia
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast. Soil moisture conditions are deceiving in that while the surface may appear dry, they are saturated several starting several inches below the surface.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
More like a 72 hour round up. Incredibly, very little has happened. Russia has made very minor gains in east while Ukraine consolidates after a significant counteroffensive operation north and east of Khariv. Russian strategic missile strikes on Ukrainan rail infrastructure and munitions depots has died off and the indiscriminate targeting of residential areas resumes. Life also hasn’t treated the garrison stationed on the infamous “snake” island.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Ukraine counter offensive has pushed Russian forces nearly all the way back into Russia. Russia blew several bridges to slow down the offensive. The difference between an offensive and attack is that the attack is more narrow in focus where offensive covers a wider front. It appears that Russia is being forced to divert additional BTGs to hold the border and protect its logistic lines.
Ukraine intel indicates that Russian forces are likely being assembled in Belgorod to be deployed to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive from pushing closer to the Ukraine-Russia border.
Meanwhile, you didn’t miss much on the Izium - Lyman - Popansa sectors, only that after three weeks of the Phase 2 offensive, Russian forces were finally able to capture the tiny village of Popansa. Every thing else in this sector largely unchanged.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops continued to assault the Azovstal Steel Plant and advanced efforts to economically integrate occupied Mariupol into the wider Russian economy.
Ground assault to envelope the Donbas region from the south still are stalled.
Crimea Front -
Very minor actions over the weekend. Satellite imagery suggests that Russia is assembling artillery in the northern Crimea area to support a likely attack(s) towards Zaporizhia and/or Kryvyi Rih.
Increasing missile strikes on residual / civilian areas of Odesa.
Ukraine flexed its airpower over the weekend, striking the Russian garrison on Snake Island, destroying several pieces of ADA systems, seriously damaging a medium landing craft and a MI-8 helicopter. Upwards of 40+ Russians reportedly killed.
TB2’s struck ADA systems, MI-8 and one Project 11770 Serna class landing craft and a total of four Raptor class patrol boats. Two Ukraine Mig 29s struck as well.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report
Russian Territory -
Build up of Russian forces believed to be dedicated to stop the Ukraine offensive.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.
When one considers that we are now almost THREE WEEKS into this new phase of the war and Russia has captured very little terrain and in fact has lost more to Ukraine than gains from it. Russian advances are predominantly road bound. As it stands, this second phase is nearly as much a failure as the first phase.
Ukraine’s counter offensive appears to be freezing Russian forces and forcing diversion of BTGs from the Izium axis to protect the rear. This offensive could also set the stage for more cross border strikes by Ukrainan artillery.
If true, failing/refusing follow orders from Moscow will further degrade Russian combat operations as generals in Ukraine and Moscow get in urinary olympic contests over operations.
Ukraine activities harassing the Russians at Snake Island may result in drawing more Russian capitol ships into Neptune range. Add to that potential loss of the smaller amphibious assault ships being used to bring supplies to the garrison.
Finally, Russia’s ability to stay focused on key components of the battle still causes my head to twitch. They launch a two day missile campaign on Ukraine rail lines, then let it drop to bomb civilians elsewhere. largely due IMHO lack of an ability to get timely intel for follow on strikes.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Relatively quiet, but lots of rumors going about.
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Israel -
Israel looking at a limited ground operation into either Gaza or the West Bank to stop terror attacks that have plagued it over the past few weeks.
Israel also watching the turnover of Russian bases to Iran/Hezebollah. In the past Israel has given the locations wide berth to avoid confrontations with Russia. With Russia gone, so to the. kid glove treatment.
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Lebanon -
Hezbollah held a large rally in Nabatiyeh today as Lebanon’s elections begin next week. Nasrallah focused on anti-American and Israel subjects. He also warned that starting at 7pm tonight, Hezbollah will be on alert after the start of the IDF’s Chariots of Fire maneuvers.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
A new report from the Bank for International Settlements estimates that up to 90% of national central banks are at least in the planning stages for launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC): “Nine out of 10 central banks are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and more than half are now developing them or running concrete experiments. In particular, work on retail CBDCs has moved to more advanced stages”
This echoes a March report from the IMF, which claimed over one hundred nations are at least in the planning stages of releasing their own CBDC.
Programmability is a major feature of digital currency which would allow the issuer to set limits and controls over its use. Essentially, any CBDC would give either the state, the central bank or the corporation issuing the money as wages the power to control how and where the money is spent.
OBSERVATION - Global currency and spending control is a major goal of the GGR. Your ‘money’ ceases to be your own to spend as you see fit. The wuhan plandemic has served as a catalyst as well as covers for this movement to take control.
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Wuhan virus -
WSJ published an article noting that wuhan cases are rising in parts of U.S. with high vaccination rates.
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Economy -
Baby formula shortages reaching critical levels in parts of the country. Significant uptick in searches for ‘home made baby formula’ and increase in emergency visits of infants when those formulas go wrong.
biden to address inflation in a speech tonight. Most expect it to be a repeat of what he’s been saying all along, many of his points being debunked time and again.
The average price of gas in the United States rose to a new high on Tuesday of $4.37 a gallon, according to AAA. The current average for regular unleaded as of Monday is thirteen cents higher than gas was one week ago, twenty cents more expensive than one month ago, and $1.36 more than one year ago.
The national average cost of a gallon of diesel fuel hit $5.540 on Monday, according to AAA’s fuel price data. That’s twenty-one cents more expensive than one week ago, forty-eight cents more than one month ago, and a whopping $2.42 more expensive than last year.
OBSERVATION - Rising fuel costs will continue to force rising prices in all other sectors. US Oil production is still down 1500 (11%) barrels per day from the per-wuhan peak.
California energy officials on Friday issued a sober forecast for the state’s electrical grid, saying it lacks sufficient capacity to keep the lights on this summer and beyond if heatwaves, wildfires or other extreme events take their toll…
In an online briefing with reporters, the officials forecast a potential shortfall of 1,700 megawatts this year, a number that could go as high as 5,000 MW if the grid is taxed by multiple challenges that reduce available power while sending demand soaring, state officials said during an online briefing with reporters.
Supply gaps along those lines could leave between 1 million and 4 million people without power.
OBSERVATION - Electrical shortages are so bad that it is forcing Newscum to reassess his push to close down the state’s last nuclear power plant. Kalifornians are also going to be hit doubly if coal generated power from out side the state (if available) if brought in because of outrageous carbon fees/taxes levied on it. Even with all the mandated home solar, the short fall is there.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
On Monday evening, radical abortion supporters marched on Samuel Alito’s home.
Videos of the protesters flanked by cameramen showed people marching up and down the street chanting slogans like: “our bodies, our voice!” and “Alito is a coward!”
Some members of the crowd carried a banner that read: “Repro Freedom For All.”
The political group Shut Down DC said it would be organizing a vigil outside Justice Alito’s home because “it’s been impossible to reach him at the Supreme Court.”
DOJ is silent on this violation of federal law, being more interested in investigating moms at school board meetings than investigating proaborts breaking the law trying to intimidate USSC justices.
Caroline Reilly, who works for the pro-abortion news site Rewire, wrote “more of this” followed by a link to a New York Times report about the Wisconsin arson investigation.
“More of this. May these people never know a moment of peace or safety until they rot in the ground,” Reilly wrote, according to screen shots from Fox News, National Review, independent journalist Andy Ngo and others.
The office of the Oregon Right to Life in Keizer, OR was attacked on Sunday night. The assailant(s) tried to break the window to throw firebombs inside. Unable to break in, the firebombs were hurled at the building instead.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot appearing to push for a civil war via a “call to arms”
OBSERVATION - The ‘left’ would say that this is just protected rhetoric, but only loosely .
OBSERVATION - Protests/riots are very subdued in contrast to leftist rhetoric ‘hope’ of more turnout and violence to leverage against the judges. Polls show no traction being gained and that protests may actually be backfiring to some extent.
Many blue states and areas diverted wuhan funds to promote CRT in schools. Renaming it “social and emotional learning”.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
A new CNN poll conducted after the leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion showing a majority of justices favoring rolling back Roe v. Wade, suggests that the overwrought responses from Democrats may not move the needle on Election Day as they’d hoped it would. It shows increased support for republican candidates and issues. On the question of whether Roe should be overturned completely, 34% said it should be — an increase of four points since January — and 66% said no — down three points — suggesting that support for overturning the radical 1973 abortion decision is on the rise.
OBSERVATION - CNN is traditionally a hard left leaning poll source, so these trends are not good for the democrats who were looking to gain traction and support on this issue.
Schumer is looking to push a vote on a very radical proabort bill, already doomed to failure, to try to force senators to take a stand on the issue. Given recent polling , such a vote will do very little when compared to overwhelming economic concerns of the electorate.
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China -
Over the weekend, Hong Kong residents “elected” a new hardline Chinese loyalist, John Lee, to the city-state’s Chief Executive position. Lee received 99.2% of the vote from an “election committee” composed of elite Hongkongers granted the power to select key leaders by Beijing.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
New South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol says he’ll present “an audacious plan” to improve North Korea’s economy if leader Kim Jong Un denuclearizes.
“N.K. nuclear program is a threat to South Korean security and that of Northeast Asia. “. The new president also vowed to keep an open door for dialogue with North Korea.
OBSERVATION - Expect a very bumpy ride as Kim is used to a more plastic SK administration.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war (Day 75)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns said Russian President Putin has “a frame of mind in which he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose… I think he’s convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress [in Ukraine].” Burns assesses the Russian military remains behind schedule even after consolidating its forces for a coastal and westward offensive from Crimea and Donbas. (FO)
OBSERVATION - Some analysts still consider that putin’s nuclear option is still in play. Some view that the option will be cancelled by the Kremlin, justifying that because of putin’s medical condition, his decision would be mentally flawed.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Wagner Group, Russian mercenaries, has called for hundreds of thousands of soldiers to be brought into the Ukraine fight.
- Not confirmed by Russia but fits documented equipment losses, around 26,000 Russian troops have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has said in its latest update. A rough estimate of wounded would be in the neighborhood of 75K-100K Over the past day, Russia suffered the greatest losses in the Avdiivka area, north of the Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
- Poor morale and discipline of the Russian soldiers continues to be a serous problem as reports by US and Ukraine analysts.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Again, incredibly, very little has happened. Russia has made very minor gains in east while Ukraine resumed its counteroffensive operation north and east of Khariv. Russian strategic missile strikes focused on Odesa, hitting civilian targets.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Bilopillia district of Sumy region was shelled with MLRS from Kursk region
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Ukrainian army center offensive resumed liberating Bairak, Zamuilivka, Verkhnii Saltiv and Rubizhne, east to Kharkiv. In some instances, Russian forces retreated in a disorganized fashion that could in one instance be considered a panic. This offensive is diverting units away from the main Russian efforts to the south.
In the southern area of the front, Izyim to Papasna region, very little success. Russia has massed the majority of its forces against the region and has gotten very little for its efforts. Russian advances continue to be severely road bound, limiting the ability to apply this combat power and exposing logistical routes. Repetition of the failure in the north.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian AF conducted 34 sorties against Azovstal in last 24 hours, including 8 sorties of strategic bombers. Also naval artillery, MLRS, UR-77 and tanks shelling the plant. Russians blew up the last bridge, used to ‘evacuate’ trapped civilians over the course of the last week.
Russian / separatist forces failed to advance northward into the Donbas region.
Crimea Front -
Odesa faced a heavy missile attack, with civilian / residential areas targeted by air and sea launched cruse missiles.
Satellite imagery shows an increase in Russian anti-air forces on Crimea. Observers believe an influx of Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems, S-300 anti-air systems, or Iskander missile launchers in Filativka could signal a new Russian advance in southern and eastern Ukraine. The satellite images also show nearly 200 combat armored vehicles of various types, possibly command and control elements. (FO)
Snake Island remains a problem for Russian forces as Ukraine exerts an economy of force like operation to harass and destroy Russian equipment and forces on and around the island.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.
The noted increases in forces in Crimea have analysts watching closely to see how they will be applied. Russia only has so many forces - far fewer than most say they need to accomplish the tactical objectives they have stated. Right now, the push northward into the Donbas region is failing even worse than the efforts in the northern and eastern fronts. The longer it takes to execute a coordinated, mutually supporting attack, the longer Ukraine has to make additional preparations and get new offensive equipment into positions. Some suspect that US artillery with laser guided rounds are already devastating Russian forces in the east. If Russia is foolish enough to try to attack westward toward Odesa, they will be further doomed and decimated. Even a push to try to capture the entire Kherson Oblast will be very costly in men and equipment and not likely to succeed.
Russia will continue to maneuver to have captured territories ‘vote’ for ‘independence’, perhaps as a step towards an exit strategy for putin to be able to declare some kind of victory.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Russian and Transnistrian sources claimed Ukrainian forces closed the border with Moldova on May 9.
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Belarus -
Belarus to deploy special operation forces on the border with Ukraine - General staff of Belarus
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Poland -
Great Britain has reportedly assured Poland that they would secure the country if it releases Mig fighters to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -
Lithuanian Parliament adopted a resolution (unanimously.): - recognizing that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and its people is considered as genocide; - naming Russia a terrorist state
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Israel -
The IDF launched the largest exercise in its history on Sunday. Thousands of soldiers and reservists will take part in the drill, dubbed “Chariots of Fire,” including the air force, navy and regular and reserve forces.
OBSERVATIONS - Tensions remain high post-Ramadan.
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Lebanon -
Hezbollah held a large rally in Nabatiyeh today as Lebanon’s elections begin this week. Nasrallah focused on anti-American and Israel subjects. He also warned that starting at 7pm tonight, Hezbollah will be on alert after the start of the IDF’s Chariots of Fire maneuvers.
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