Mortality Rate of Coronavirus in US Slips to 1.25% in KNOWN CASES – Far Below Fraudulent Number by WHO — Looks Like HUGE MISCALCULATION

Domi Good ^ | 3/20/20 | Staff

[Its All Over Except ...]

The mortality rate for the coronavirus in the US continues to fall as more and more Americans are able to be tested.

12 days ago the US coronavirus mortality rate was 4.06 Today the mortality rate is down to 1.25%!

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases) 3.69% March 9 (26 of 704) 3.01% March 10 (30 of 994) 2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295) 2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695) 2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247) 1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954) 1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680) 1.6% March 17 (116 of 7,301) 1.4% March 19 (161 of 11,329) 1.25% March 20 (237 of 18,845)

Yossi Getetner posted a list earlier in the week. Thanks to the fraudulent numbers by the WHO the global economies are in a meltdown.

...

[cherry]

someone wrote in this last month that "presence does not equal contagion..."

be brave....

[semantic]

Italy vs USA
Daily mortality
US days 24-32 estimated based on tracking Italy by 8 days from dates of first deaths

		Italy	60.5		Ratio			USA	330.4	
Day	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily	Cum	Daily	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily
										
1	2/21/2020	1		1	1.0	1.0	2/29/2020	1		1
2	2/22/2020	2	100.0%	1	1.0	1.0	3/1/2020	2	100.0%	1
3	2/23/2020	3	50.0%	1	0.5	0.3	3/2/2020	6	200.0%	4
4	2/24/2020	7	133.3%	4	0.8	1.3	3/3/2020	9	50.0%	3
5	2/25/2020	10	42.9%	3	0.8	1.0	3/4/2020	12	33.3%	3
6	2/26/2020	12	20.0%	2	0.9	1.0	3/5/2020	14	16.7%	2
7	2/27/2020	17	41.7%	5	0.9	1.3	3/6/2020	18	28.6%	4
8	2/28/2020	21	23.5%	4	1.1	4.0	3/7/2020	19	5.6%	1
9	2/29/2020	29	38.1%	8	1.3	2.7	3/8/2020	22	15.8%	3
10	3/1/2020	34	17.2%	5	1.3	1.3	3/9/2020	26	18.2%	4
11	3/2/2020	52	52.9%	18	1.7	3.6	3/10/2020	31	19.2%	5
12	3/3/2020	79	51.9%	27	2.1	3.9	3/11/2020	38	22.6%	7
13	3/4/2020	107	35.4%	28	2.5	7.0	3/12/2020	42	10.5%	4
14	3/5/2020	148	38.3%	41	3.0	5.9	3/13/2020	49	16.7%	7
15	3/6/2020	197	33.1%	49	3.5	7.0	3/14/2020	56	14.3%	7
16	3/7/2020	233	18.3%	36	3.8	6.0	3/15/2020	62	10.7%	6
17	3/8/2020	366	57.1%	133	4.9	10.2	3/16/2020	75	21.0%	13
18	3/9/2020	463	26.5%	97	4.8	4.6	3/17/2020	96	28.0%	21
19	3/10/2020	631	36.3%	168	5.2	6.5	3/18/2020	122	27.1%	26
20	3/11/2020	827	31.1%	196	4.8	3.8	3/19/2020	174	42.6%	52
21	3/12/2020	1,027	24.2%	200	4.5	3.6	3/20/2020	229	31.6%	55
22	3/13/2020	1,266	23.3%	239	4.3	3.7	3/21/2020	294	28.4%	65
23	3/14/2020	1,441	13.8%	175	3.6	1.7	3/22/2020	400	36.1%	106
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	4.0	7.0	3/23/2020	452	13.1%	52
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	4.0	4.0	3/24/2020	540	19.3%	87
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	4.0	4.0	3/25/2020	626	16.0%	86
27	3/18/2020	2,978	19.0%	475	4.0	4.0	3/26/2020	745	19.0%	119
28	3/19/2020	3,405	14.3%	427	4.0	4.0	3/27/2020	851	14.3%	107
29	3/20/2020	4,032	18.4%	627	4.0	4.0	3/28/2020	1,008	18.4%	157
30	3/21/2020	4,825	19.7%	793	4.0	4.0	3/29/2020	1,206	19.7%	198
31	3/22/2020	5,476	13.5%	651	4.0	4.0	3/30/2020	1,369	13.5%	163
32	3/23/2020	6,077	11.0%	601	4.0	4.0	3/31/2020	1,519	11.0%	150
										
	Population differential				5.5					
	Gross differential				23.5					
										
Growth rate										
23	Days		37.19%						29.76%	
32	Days		31.29%						25.73%	
										
Sources										
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States										
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy										

[wastoute]

You can’t post the chart I sent you yesterday? Can you walk me through how to post it from an IPad? If it can be done I would be happy to do it.

[Vermont Lt]

If they don’t have a DNR, you know they are.

[ZinGirl]

LOL. Dude...at this point I would ask the yard guy about..uhhh....certain “plants” I can grow on my own. For medicinal purposes, of course. ;).

[semantic]

Ay carumba, if someone mentions "cases" once more I think I'm going to scream.

Cases is a made up number. It only represents positive test results (both true pos and false pos). As such, it only represents growth in **testing**, not disease incidence.

Wastoute, can you please locate and (re)post your original comment about using actual death records? This is the only true, accurate data we have. Watch the curve for when it actually bends. The US is behind Italy by 8 days - so, then we too should bend down.

Actual infection takes place 10-14 days before recorded deaths. When we reach a "true" peak in deaths, peak infection will have already taken place by almost 2 weeks.

[wastoute]

Let’s do this Platonic Style. Ask me questions and I’ll answer. You know what we are discussing.

[wastoute]

Or we could just point people to worldometers. #new death column is RED for a reason.

[Vermont Lt]

It takes a while to recover.

And recovered is two days of negative testing, 24 hours apart. My guess is they are not spending resources on people who will go home and lock down anyway. They do t have enough tests.

That is why you aren’t seeing recovered.

[Vermont Lt]

What would be interesting is a statistically accurate traffic prediction for ICU beds.

The number of patients is escalating and the length of stay is growing longer...and the growth rates of beds is really minuscule (True ICU with telemetry and vents.)

THAT is the number that should be giving pause, because it impacts ALL other mortality factors.

[Grampa Dave]

LOL. Dude...at this point I would ask the yard guy about..uhhh....certain “plants” I can grow on my own. For medicinal purposes, of course. ;).

We have neighbors with millennials still at home in their basements if we needed that advice.

The most exciting plants my wife has are two Trees, A Meyer Lemon with the best lemons ever, and her miniature black fig tree. Then, her 36 Rose Bushes are incredible.

[gogeo]

Italy's at 9% dead to infected. That's a ramp from 3% earlier.

Are those the real or cooked numbers from Italy?

[abb]

Is New York going to report again today, or is that it? Louisiana switched today to reporting only once a day at Noon, CDT, and their numbers are in.

[Prince of Space]

Many ppl have survived this and supposedly many ppl have very mild symptoms, including not even knowing they’re infected. The minute number of ppl dying from this virus, in America, may indeed suffer but that’s true of most patients at the end of their lives. Death isn’t supposed to be pain free. You need to get a grip.

[semantic]

That is extremely easy to calculate. Simply compose the running total of deaths in one column, then multiply that result by a factor of say 20 (assuming 5% succumb) to get gross ICU beds required.

Next column, set an assumption about days admitted before death. Say, 3? Then use that lagging number to then subtract from the previous sum of gross ICU beds required. That will be your net ICU requirement.

Next, follow the trend lines like the chart below. If you know the grand total of ICU beds available + those units quickly coming on line, then you can easily determine any possible x-over point.

No cross over, no emergency - in terms of fatalities resulting from care capacity constraints. Also, you can do these types of calcs on a regional basis, ie high impact states like CA & NY. OTOH, it may be moot, because add'l resources (MDs, etc) can be flown to high impact states, or vice versa; patients being transmitted to outlying lower impact zones.

I keep saying this, but my baseline models are freely available to anyone. Just shoot me a PM. Knock yourself calculating all sorts of projections.

[Prince of Space]

I’m a contrarian by nature but I approached this thing with an open mind. I didn’t jump from A to Z immediately and instead decided to see what happened with regard to the Chinese virus, unlike many ppl on this forum. However, when it became apparent the MSM and talking head “experts” were hyperventilating about the virus, my spidey senses went into overdrive.

It’s apparent that we’ve been played, purely for political reasons in an election year. TPTB are willing to wreck our economy and way of life to keep Trump from being re-elected. We need to end this charade now. And when they try this power grab again, as we know they will, we need to be united in our response.

[Prince of Space]

Case in point, using the Johns Hopkins data: Pinal County in AZ, where I live, states as of yesterday we’ve had 16 Chinese virus patients. One is hospitalized and 15 have recovered or were discharged. So clearly there is a gap in reporting the number of recovered.

[cherry]

I like you am just a natural contrarian...I always question the average view of anything...( if one finds their agreeing with the majority, its time to stop and reflect...MT)

I have to tell you that I've followed the covig virus threads from the beginning and I swear we had some talk of it back in December....which is why I bought lots of extra TP and masks etc way way back in early January...I'm a contrarian with common sense....

but I've grown increasing distrusting and distraught over all of this, and to be selfish, very much so over my life time of work retirement money that has just vanished.....

lets move on.....lets get moving....

[Prince of Space]

I’m in that category of mild symptoms and not being tested. I’m a 66 yo woman with hypertension who has had persistent coughing, intermittent fever, and fatigue since last Tuesday. No sneezing or sore throat or runny nose, which is my usual cold presentation.

Nevertheless, both the nurse line at BCBS and an online assessment at the CDC told me to stay home unless my symptoms worsen. They’re not interested in testing me, so I guess they don’t really want to document the number of ppl with Chinese virus because it screws up their mortality rate, among other things.

I might add they’ve done about 500 tests in Arizona, a state with a population of over 7 million with over 150 cases of CV and 2 deaths.

[AppyPappy]

You are correct but I have been putting the #’s into a database. The mortality rate went from 1.25% to
1.35% since yesterday