Mortality Rate of Coronavirus in US Slips to 1.25% in KNOWN CASES – Far Below Fraudulent Number by WHO — Looks Like HUGE MISCALCULATION

Domi Good ^ | 3/20/20 | Staff

[Its All Over Except ...]

The mortality rate for the coronavirus in the US continues to fall as more and more Americans are able to be tested.

12 days ago the US coronavirus mortality rate was 4.06 Today the mortality rate is down to 1.25%!

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases) 3.69% March 9 (26 of 704) 3.01% March 10 (30 of 994) 2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295) 2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695) 2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247) 1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954) 1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680) 1.6% March 17 (116 of 7,301) 1.4% March 19 (161 of 11,329) 1.25% March 20 (237 of 18,845)

Yossi Getetner posted a list earlier in the week. Thanks to the fraudulent numbers by the WHO the global economies are in a meltdown.

...

[ZinGirl]

:). We used to watch it in the mornings before their school bus. I was talking to my neighbor about it this morning and assured her if I ask my girls about The Waltons today they would go into PTSD mode. “Oh. O..I’m sure they have good memories of it”. So..I asked my girls. The younger (now 25) says, “the only thing I learned from that show is that living on a mountaintop with no TV is you end up with a bunch of kids and name them John”...sooo....not the take away I hoped for 20 years ago. 😀 (she is mostly being funny...buried at her boyfriend’s parents’ house for quarantine..finding humor wherever)

[chris37]

She’s definitely right about ending up with a bunch of kids named John!

That’s hilarious :D

[lepton]

Yes, which is exactly the situation here in the US.

---

The “86%” case is not remotely like the situation in the US.

Evidence of that abounds.

I’d be willing to lay $ on the mortality rate being much, much lower than CNN breathlessly trumpets on a daily basis.

---

I have no idea what they trumpet. I just see plenty of evidence that a sub-1% rate is already clearly wrong even allowing for the plausible unknown unknown number of infected.

Hopefully we’ll come up with a treatment that will drive future cases down to that or less - but that’s not where we are now.

[gas_dr]

Possible VERY GOOD news. Italy has reported 4700+ new cases. This is the SECOND DAY IN A ROW that new cases have dropped. Growth Factor is 0.86. IIf this trend remains stable, Italy has peaked and is on the downward side of their epidemic. Albeit at the very top of the hill, hopefully this will pick up some steam and allow us to understand worse case scenario. But is this trends, we now know where the peak is in the worst affected area.

[abb]

The NEW deaths also decreased from 651 to 602.

[jstolzen]

Lots of stories out there about infected store workers at Costco, Amazon, UPS and elsewhere.

If you want to take those kind of chances - fine. But even the Instacart summary email is including precautionary notes because they (like just about everyone else) recognize the items CAN be contaminated. And, studies have found the virus lives up to 9 days (!) on hard surfaces like glass, plastic and metal - less on cardboard and paper, but still can be infected.

A grocery version of Russian Roulette isn’t a game I want to play..thanks, but no thanks.

[cherry]

stats and common sense...

[semantic]

Italy's daily mortality topped out 3 days ago @ 793. Two days downward doesn't make a trend, so it could be very well likely just an anomaly. That being said, note how their 31 day vs 23 day daily growth rate has dropped - that is a true number.

If not today, one day we will begin to see a true downward pattern emerge. Since the US is approx 8 days behind Italy, then all eyes will turn to our daily numbers to ID the peak and then ensuing plateau/fade.

		Italy	60.5				USA	330.4	
Day	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily	Differential	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily
									
1	2/21/2020	1		1	1.0	2/29/2020	1		1
2	2/22/2020	2	100.0%	1	1.0	3/1/2020	2	100.0%	1
3	2/23/2020	3	50.0%	1	0.5	3/2/2020	6	200.0%	4
4	2/24/2020	7	133.3%	4	0.8	3/3/2020	9	50.0%	3
5	2/25/2020	10	42.9%	3	0.8	3/4/2020	12	33.3%	3
6	2/26/2020	12	20.0%	2	0.9	3/5/2020	14	16.7%	2
7	2/27/2020	17	41.7%	5	0.9	3/6/2020	18	28.6%	4
8	2/28/2020	21	23.5%	4	1.1	3/7/2020	19	5.6%	1
9	2/29/2020	29	38.1%	8	1.3	3/8/2020	22	15.8%	3
10	3/1/2020	34	17.2%	5	1.3	3/9/2020	26	18.2%	4
11	3/2/2020	52	52.9%	18	1.7	3/10/2020	31	19.2%	5
12	3/3/2020	79	51.9%	27	2.1	3/11/2020	38	22.6%	7
13	3/4/2020	107	35.4%	28	2.5	3/12/2020	42	10.5%	4
14	3/5/2020	148	38.3%	41	3.0	3/13/2020	49	16.7%	7
15	3/6/2020	197	33.1%	49	3.5	3/14/2020	56	14.3%	7
16	3/7/2020	233	18.3%	36	3.8	3/15/2020	62	10.7%	6
17	3/8/2020	366	57.1%	133	4.9	3/16/2020	75	21.0%	13
18	3/9/2020	463	26.5%	97	4.8	3/17/2020	96	28.0%	21
19	3/10/2020	631	36.3%	168	5.2	3/18/2020	122	27.1%	26
20	3/11/2020	827	31.1%	196	4.8	3/19/2020	174	42.6%	52
21	3/12/2020	1,027	24.2%	200	4.5	3/20/2020	229	31.6%	55
22	3/13/2020	1,266	23.3%	239	4.3	3/21/2020	294	28.4%	65
23	3/14/2020	1,441	13.8%	175	3.6	3/22/2020	400	36.1%	106
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	4.0	3/23/2020	456	14.0%	56
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	4.2	3/24/2020	520	14.0%	64
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	4.2	3/25/2020	593	14.0%	73
27	3/18/2020	2,978	19.0%	475	4.4	3/26/2020	676	14.0%	83
28	3/19/2020	3,405	14.3%	427	4.4	3/27/2020	770	14.0%	95
29	3/20/2020	4,032	18.4%	627	4.6	3/28/2020	878	14.0%	108
30	3/21/2020	4,825	19.7%	793	4.8	3/29/2020	1,001	14.0%	123
31	3/22/2020	5,476	13.5%	651	4.8	3/30/2020	1,141	14.0%	140
32	3/23/2020	6,077	11.0%	601	4.7	3/31/2020	1,301	14.0%	160
									
	Population differential				5.5				
	Gross differential				23.5				
									
Growth rate									
23	Days		37.19%					29.76%	
32	Days		31.29%					25.49%	
									
Sources									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy									

[wastoute]

If the new deaths started going down it would literally be an Act of God. Literally what we have all been praying for. Not even joking because it won’t be because of a dang thing we did.

[wastoute]

What. You are really looking at is “history” so to speak. We want to know what the virus is doing more than what it has done. What it is doing is a better indicator of what it will do.

[wastoute]

Did you get that graph I sent you yesterday? Can you post that?

[wastoute]

If someone could walk me through how to do it with an IPad I will. I quit messsing with HTML a long time ago.

[cherry]

"If so, then why not only quarantine old people and people with chronic health problems or worse?"

I ask my self why they didn't....probably politically incorrect to do so.....but the smartest choice between crashing the whole country and isolating people that are vulnerable..

[Grampa Dave]

You could conclude life as we know it, on planet Earth, is doomed,

Settled Science!

Where have we heard this before: “Settled Science!”?

[chris37]

I’d love to see some numbers drop. I just heard someone saying on the radio news how, paraphrase, we reached the first 100k cases worldwide in 11 days, the second 100k case is 6 days, and the third 100k cases in 4 days.

Numbers can be looked at in a lot of ways, but I don’t think anyone is actually telling us what we are really dealing with.

[cherry]

"So why aren’t they just quarantining the elderly and the chronically sick or worse? Because it isn’t fair? Discrimination?"

but fair to knock millions out of their jobs including young families with children....fair to steal the life savings of workers who have suffered catastrophic losses in their 401Ks?...

[Sam Gamgee]

Are over fascist book the 4% number is bandied around like its a given.

[Grampa Dave]

BOL! Thanks for an enjoyable and funny reply.

In spite of having a good cleaning lady before the lockup, my wife/I has been deep cleaning the house this past week. She has just finished.

Now, I’m afraid of what she will decide to do. She asked our yard guy this morning what he/she could plant. His reply as usual, was wait until the week before Easter for flowers. Wait until after May 15 to plant Tomatoes and other food stuff.

After he left, she asked me how much did that cost me to have him tell her “Don’t plant anything,now!”

My reply, “He has been telling you that for 3 decades when it warms up mid/late March.”

I got that you know what glare.

She still wants to go to any nursery that is still open.

Her two Homer Buckets are cleaned, empty and ready for action.

“LOL....if I’m cooped up for 3 months, I’ll have more to worry about then venturing outside. My husband will have dragged my whiney, cabin-fever a$$ outside long before that. He possibly had a worried look on his face when he left for work this morning and saw I was intently watching Little House on the Prairie....a show which was never on in our house even when the children were little! (We were a Waltons kind of fam). Day Whatever of Quarantine and I have that on already? Pretty sure he is liquor store bound after work. Come to think of it, he HAS called more than usual this morning to check on me. Hmmmmmmm. To be fair..this is Day One for me not going to work because of the knee, not the virus...so I don’t know which is affecting me more. ;)

[cherry]

I hope and pray that we are not venting 89 yro dementia patients with failure to thrive and feeding tubes.....

[Grampa Dave]

God, Felix Ungar lives.

BOL! Thanks!