[lepton]

Yes, which is exactly the situation here in the US.

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The “86%” case is not remotely like the situation in the US.

Evidence of that abounds.

I’d be willing to lay $ on the mortality rate being much, much lower than CNN breathlessly trumpets on a daily basis.

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I have no idea what they trumpet. I just see plenty of evidence that a sub-1% rate is already clearly wrong even allowing for the plausible unknown unknown number of infected.

Hopefully we’ll come up with a treatment that will drive future cases down to that or less - but that’s not where we are now.

[gas_dr]

Possible VERY GOOD news. Italy has reported 4700+ new cases. This is the SECOND DAY IN A ROW that new cases have dropped. Growth Factor is 0.86. IIf this trend remains stable, Italy has peaked and is on the downward side of their epidemic. Albeit at the very top of the hill, hopefully this will pick up some steam and allow us to understand worse case scenario. But is this trends, we now know where the peak is in the worst affected area.