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To: Vermont Lt; cgbg; abb
That is extremely easy to calculate. Simply compose the running total of deaths in one column, then multiply that result by a factor of say 20 (assuming 5% succumb) to get gross ICU beds required.

Next column, set an assumption about days admitted before death. Say, 3? Then use that lagging number to then subtract from the previous sum of gross ICU beds required. That will be your net ICU requirement.

Next, follow the trend lines like the chart below. If you know the grand total of ICU beds available + those units quickly coming on line, then you can easily determine any possible x-over point.

No cross over, no emergency - in terms of fatalities resulting from care capacity constraints. Also, you can do these types of calcs on a regional basis, ie high impact states like CA & NY. OTOH, it may be moot, because add'l resources (MDs, etc) can be flown to high impact states, or vice versa; patients being transmitted to outlying lower impact zones.

I keep saying this, but my baseline models are freely available to anyone. Just shoot me a PM. Knock yourself calculating all sorts of projections.

235 posted on 03/23/2020 1:28:27 PM PDT by semantic
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To: semantic

That is nice...buts not how you figure bed use.

It’s more of a traffic analysis taking into consideration the queue, the turnover time (not just changing sheets) and the support systems.

You can have 500 people on cots in a building in Wuhan. That is not intensive respiratory care. Those are corrals.


241 posted on 03/23/2020 2:34:46 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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