What would be interesting is a statistically accurate traffic prediction for ICU beds.
The number of patients is escalating and the length of stay is growing longer...and the growth rates of beds is really minuscule (True ICU with telemetry and vents.)
THAT is the number that should be giving pause, because it impacts ALL other mortality factors.
Next column, set an assumption about days admitted before death. Say, 3? Then use that lagging number to then subtract from the previous sum of gross ICU beds required. That will be your net ICU requirement.
Next, follow the trend lines like the chart below. If you know the grand total of ICU beds available + those units quickly coming on line, then you can easily determine any possible x-over point.
No cross over, no emergency - in terms of fatalities resulting from care capacity constraints. Also, you can do these types of calcs on a regional basis, ie high impact states like CA & NY. OTOH, it may be moot, because add'l resources (MDs, etc) can be flown to high impact states, or vice versa; patients being transmitted to outlying lower impact zones.
I keep saying this, but my baseline models are freely available to anyone. Just shoot me a PM. Knock yourself calculating all sorts of projections.