Posted on 10/26/2016 11:20:39 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Earlier this morning, we ran a feature encouraging Democrats not to count their presidential chickens before they hatch—drawing on recent history, including Brexit and this year’s Republican primary—and it appears our timing couldn’t have been better. (Or worse, depending on how you look at it.) Recent polls from swing states are somehow indicating that Donald J. Trump, candidate for president, is making a comeback. Here’s a snapshot of what might be a legitimate comeback, with a nod to Real Clear Politics and their thorough poll aggregation:
Florida
A Bloomberg poll released today has Trump leading by two points.
Nevada
A Remington Review poll, released yesterday, puts Trump up three points.
Ohio
The last five polls, from Remington, Suffolk, Quinnipiac, CNN/ORC, and NBC/WSJ/Marist, have Trump either leading or tied.
Arizona
A Monmouth poll conducted from Friday to Monday puts Trump up one point.
Colorado
A Remington poll has Clinton up a mere two points, which, when you consider how Trump’s unique brand of nativist supporters have been underestimated in GOP primary polling, and a similar brand of UK voter was similarly dismissed before the Brexit voting, this is scary.
There are also too-narrow leads for Clinton in “stronghold” states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It’s hard to know exactly why this is happening. It’s not like Trump has been any more presidential in his behavior over the past two weeks. The news of Obamacare premium spikes may play into the number, but that report was released Monday, so it shouldn’t have affected most of these polls, which were taken over the weekend. (In fact, if you’re a Dem, it’s an especially terrible harbinger that this “comeback” happened before that piece of bad news.)
Now, it’s not all doom and gloom—Clinton is still the clubhouse leader (Nate Silver has her at 85% to win), and she could actually lose the first four states above and still win the election, provided she holds onto Virginia. Plus, there are a few traditionally red states like North Carolina that look like they may go blue in November.
That being said, this is no slam dunk, and the really annoying thing is that for people who fear a Trump presidency, there will be no premature relief—the specter of his potential ascent to the highest office in the land will haunt us at least until election day.
I have great enthusiasm for Donald The Lion Trump.
I never had to hold my nose so tightly as I did to vote for Romney.
Now the scolds who admonished me to do so refuse to hold their noses to vote for Trump.
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Well said! I couldn't have said it better myself.
I have held my nose to vote for every Republican nominee since Reagan, but I did. I did my part but never again. I am no longer a registered Republican.
However, this time around I am gladly voting FOR a candidate in whom I believe and not just because it's not the "other one."
The polls are megas-BS. There is no “comeback”. He never was “behind”. The media are compromised, Free-America-hating losers and liars.
Romney had enthusiastic rallies?
(and I actually supported the guy, at the time)
Even I was never enthusiastic about the guy. He inspired nobody.
However I have been 100% for Trump since before he even announced his campaign.
Trump is a completely different animal.
Not me, I was fairly certain Romney was going to lose, most polls had him behind I think, except Gallup, but the consensus was that he was going to lose. Of course here on FR we tended to hang on to this one poll, and perhaps we are doing the same thing this year, but Romney was no Trump, so we are definitely in uncharted waters this election, no one really knows WTH is going to happen.
True that.
You have to look at this the right way. One of the most important factors in Presidential politics is momentum. If the news media starts saying that Trump is moving towards Hillary or is beginning to pull away in several states, that is incredibly energizing for his voters. Much more than if he is holding a steady lead of 2 - 3 points for the past month. A great GOTV motivation.
I am desperate that Trump win this - our last chance to turn things around. I hope that our sense is right - that he’s going to win in a landslide. I’ll know when I hear from the red states, early on election night. If Trump’s margins in the Romney red states are much higher than 2012, he will be on his way, and we’ll know early. The country is provincial in its voting patterns, but Americans have a certain feel for the nation, wherever they are.
AMEN!
‘Comeback’?
I didn’t know he went away
He was never gone.
And the beginning of RICO.
Another shameful Republican attempt to suppress the votes of Necrotic-Americans!
No comeback. It just that Hillary and a few of her coven have been out and about lately, screeching. They seem in their manufactured exuberance to have forgotten what happens to poll numbers when they show their ugly faces.
“Dukakis had huge crowds and was leading big 2 weeks before the election.”
Dukakis led only from May through August in 1988. He lost the lead after the GOP conventation and Bush never looked back. Even Dukakis never really believed he was 17 points ahead of Bush in the polls.
conventation=convention (Drat!)
Heavens no.
In the event that Hillary loses the traditional election, what we'll see first will be her refusal to concede. Then follows the parade of DNC lawyers, the best money can buy, who seek out each and every election irregularity they can manufacture with an army of friendly judges ready to hear their allegations. Her crusade will have the full backing of the media, who have turned Trump into Hitler and argue that this nation has a moral duty to keep him out of the White House by any means necessary. Hollywood celebs and world leaders will rally to the cause of "saving America."
And most depressingly, Hillary will have the support of many congressional Republicans as well, viewing this battle as their one final chance to hobble Trump.
She won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
Exactly. Though I am sure he took some real hit from just the complete piling on... He also probably saw some dejection by the manufactured fake polls... But now folks are rejuvenated initial shock and dejection of them wore off as they realized what they were seeing didn’t match remotely what those gas lit polls were saying... So his support is growing and the last of the Nevertrumps are coming home.
..since the convention, I don’t believe he was ever behind. Polls have been a joke. I just add 5-8 points for Trump in any poll...
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