Posted on 10/06/2016 6:07:37 AM PDT by DrDude
I know the polls are all over the place. Trump seems to be up in 4 Tracking Polls. State polls vary wildly. My question is the RCP Polls. Do they have any ryhme or reason for which polls are included? They don't hide their bias. As soon as Trump takes a lead they slap up some moronic poll which is way out of line. Why don't they include Reuters which they had last month when it was showing a lead for HRC?
I was looking around last night and went to 538. It had Trump with only a 23% chance. Wasn't it in the low 50's around the debate? Then I looked at their analysis. They did not include any poll later than the end of Sept. Not one poll from Oct which was a week ago. The analysis was date yesterday. What is going on in the Hillary/Media Lovefest World?
I do hope that there will be a national Trump ad blitz during the last 4 weeks, when it will do the most good.
Exit polls are inaccurate. Kerry, Likud, UK Tories and Brexit come to mind.
The raw vote was the opposite of the exit poll projection.
Yes, and as others have pointed out, they only remember your last few polls, so now they can afford to create a fog of disinformation. Watch for more accurate results around, say, Oct. 28.
You didn’t get the memo? Hillary’s poll numbers have skyrocketed since her brilliant debate performance. /s
The polls are propaganda that would make Joseph Goebbels and Baghdad Bob proud. They’re bogus and intended, by design, to demoralize the Trump supporters.
In the meantime, especially if they have a motive, they can afford to be as wrong as they want to be.
It's like a TV meteorologist hyping up a "huge" snowstorm for an entire week. This keeps people glued to his latest forecasts. Then the night before the big storm is to hit, he forecasts a partly cloudy day, telling us that the storm is now "heading out to sea." He is seen as making the correct call and people tend to forget he just spent an entire week telling us otherwise.
Good to know.. I saw a good Trump ad on CNBC yesterday. He needs to ramp this up big time
Why would someone like 538 base todays analysis on polls that were relased 8 or 9 days ago? That alsomeans the polls were taken approx. 11or 12 days ago. Are they holding off reporting anything good for Trump?
I am curious, despite their rather astonishing record for inaccuracy, some people have a near religious faith in political polling? Conservative watch the media habitually lie daily but suddenly their Polls are considering absolute indisputable truth when election season rolls around.
Brexit, MI Primary results, SC Primary results, are just 3 recent examples where the polls were extremely far off actual results. For Example, Michigan was suppose to go to Clinton by 20 points in the primary polling.
Clinton lost MI to Sanders.
Short answer, trust the rallies not the polls. Analysis:
Trump rallies are always packed and over several thousand. People wait in line for hours to get in and there is always an overflow crowd. When I watch on Youtube (I’ve watched most of his rallies), his rallies are always viewed live with over 15,000 viewers. Some as high as 45,000. If you go back to view older rallies, you’ll see views from 50,000 to over 150,000.
Contrast to Clinton. Her rallies draw 1,000 or less. They are staged and packed with either paid people (like Pa townhall) or bused in. The live views on YouTube for any of her rallies peaked at about 1,800.
Pence got more live viewers than Clinton for his rallies.
So I wager that the polls are only sampling about 700 people most of which are eager to give a survey. It’s a whole new election when a number of people don’t have landlines and most people hang-up on any solicitation or survey. There are a lot of people that haven’t voted before or in the last few elections that will be voting now. How many times have you seen people going all out to hang Trump signs, decorate yards, etc. I see nothing like this movement for Hillary.
Finally, I look at a similar election, Bush vs. Kerry. All the polls had Kerry up but when you looked at Kerry’s rallies, there was no enthusiasm. Bush’s rallies were good, lively and you could see it in his eyes (like Trump) he cared about the people.
If Trump does ok in the next two debates and there is no major event against Trump (Oct. surprise), he will win.
I have never really know any republican to be winning any poll until way late in the game. I don't remember any republican being declared the winner in a debate except Mittens that one time.
MSM national polling is desperately spun by oversampling Dems.
The state level polling seems to be more consistent, showing a general 6-10% shift toward Trump vis-a-vis Romney in 2012.
“Yeah, Trump was right around 50 before the debate. Since then his poll numbers have dropped nationally by a couple of percent or more, so his odds of winning have been adjusted downward since more people now intend to vote for his opponent.”
You forgot your /sarc tag.
I repeat myself, but
All favorable (for Trump) polls are legit
All UN-favorable (for Trump) polls are rigged
That’s it!
RCP is an AVERAGE of OLD polls. Including anti Trump rigged polls.
WHY would you believe THEM?
I’m the same way - I care what they say even though I know they are garbage.
Polls are like home appraisals: the appraiser wants to please whoever is paying for the appraisal.
Years ago when I was going through a divorce. I was going to buy out my ex’s half of the house, so we each got separate appraisals. The first question the appraisers asked is - what is the appraisal for? Mine came back $150k and hers came back $350k. We split the difference and see $250. Later we found out both appraisers were from the same firm. Go figure.
Same with real estate sales, the buyer’s appraisal is always low and the seller’s is always high. The bank’s is always low; the insurance company’s is always high so they can justify high premiums. Until they have to pay a claim, then it’s low.
The pollsters and the appraisers say whatever the person paying wants them to say. They have zero professional integrity or scientific curiosity.
All the pollsters have to do to establish their credibility is throw out an honest guess a couple days before the election - anything before that is designed to fit the narrative of whoever is paying for the poll.
Pollsters earn their money in various ways, some direct and some indirect. But when you see a pollster being invited as a regular guest or panelist on some network news show, that is just another way of getting paid - so you can’t trust there is an ounce of independence there.
In a nutshell, I like seeing the raw data and interpreting what the real story is...as of today, it's a tie nationally and Trump wins the EV (as Cali and NY rack up the votes for Crooked).
Thanks for sharing. See my post below yours.. and divorce sucks but staying in an unhappy marriage sucks more. Good luck
Do not believe “the polls”. The drive bystanders are liars.
And that over performance included fraud.
1. His horrible debate performance... he refused to advertise, had 86 million watching, and was absolutely awful
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And yet, he was winning nearly all the snap polls the next morning
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2. He’s undisciplined. his 3 am tweets. His constant bragging. His being taken off message so easily.
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Maybe. You could also say that in today’s world, he’s bringing it and Twitter has more eyeballs and engagement than most other places.
How well did refusing to respond do for any GOP candidate in he primaries or previous elections?
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3. His refusal to advertise!!! And he brags about it! He’s getting blistered all over TV and radio, and just like the debate, the outrageous charges are not being answered! Rallies convert no one- ads could
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I have been in business locally and nationally with services and products since 1968. By far THE BEST ad is word-of-mouth, which today means internet/social media/email lists.
We maintained a very niche jewelry line from 1987-1998 with zero advertising. Advertising was so cost ineffective, it would have eaten up a substantial percentage of profit with no change in the bottom line. Instead, we utilized distributors and you know what? They barely advertise, instead they depend on visibility through their accounts and slight discounts from the vendors.
For Trump, the ‘net and social media and those visible rallies are visibility. Does anyone not know who he is? What is the sell-through of You Tube and social media? I guarantee Trump’s campaign can tell you the answer.
Do you pay attention to glossy campaign mailers? No one I know does, except to marvel at the insane cost. What is the percentage of TV audiences captive to ads? How many households still have broadcast or subscription TV? How many fast forward thru the ads? How many record and eliminate the ads? How many stream? Who reads the paper press?
There is ad fatigue, a real phenomenon. I can go to You Tube at any time, day and night, at my personal convenience and see new, fresh, hard-hitting political ads forever. On the right-hand side, the political channels, the vloggers are all listed, so I get to sample them. These vloggers are “word-of-mouth” because they are “people like me” (fill in the demo.) Check their views and subscribers. In aggregate, they are impressive. for every body at a rally, check out the You Tube views, both live and replayed. Also impressive.
Back to anecdote, we sample our customers for the local service business. They try our competitors and come back to tell us we are superior. I sample the forums devoted to the market for my handcrafted item. With no advertising, no trade show participation and no blog, my item has remained a perennial for 30 years. When someone opening a new retail shop asks for input on *must-haves*, my product gets mentioned 90% of the time.
Trump didn’t make his fortune or build his empire on stupidity. He is acutely aware of ROI.
Of course Trump brags. He raises funds from millions of voters, while Hillary raises from a handful of billionaires and other minions.
Those polls showing Hilary ahead by ridiculous %s are all tweaked with too many indies, too many women, too many urban. We do not have a national popular vote in America. We have an Electoral College. In 5 tracking polls, Trump is ahead in important states.
Could he lose? Sure and millions of elites and progs are working for it, but where are they? Are they on the ground? You been door-knocked? I haven’t and neither has anyone I know in an historically D area. Are they rallying to give her visibility? No. Are her campaign offices overflowing with enthused volunteers? I’ve seen video of empty offices with two old ladies and one of their husbands. A month out, where are the yard signs and bumper stickers and how many are there?
You are in Dem territory. It is filled with very busy people. How many sit in front of their TVs passively absorbing advertising? I would be amazed to see any Republican, Independent or rebel, like Trump, waste his energies in your geographic location. Every media outlet in your location is solidly in the tank for Hillary. Why should he enrich them?
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