Posted on 10/06/2016 6:07:37 AM PDT by DrDude
I know the polls are all over the place. Trump seems to be up in 4 Tracking Polls. State polls vary wildly. My question is the RCP Polls. Do they have any ryhme or reason for which polls are included? They don't hide their bias. As soon as Trump takes a lead they slap up some moronic poll which is way out of line. Why don't they include Reuters which they had last month when it was showing a lead for HRC?
I was looking around last night and went to 538. It had Trump with only a 23% chance. Wasn't it in the low 50's around the debate? Then I looked at their analysis. They did not include any poll later than the end of Sept. Not one poll from Oct which was a week ago. The analysis was date yesterday. What is going on in the Hillary/Media Lovefest World?
The morons in the media think Hillary will win if they show her ahead in the polls. The dem oversample in some polls is ridiculous.
Trump declared war against the corporate media and they are deliberately trying to destroy him in case you didn’t notice.
But this tactic will backfire. Dems who don’t like Hillary think they have nothing to worry about with her ahead in the polls and probably won’t bother to vote. The same thing happend with Romney last time. The Fox polls showed him ahead and many republicans stayed home.
All of the earlier polls are meaningless, but those pollsters want to show some semblance of accuracy going into the final 2 weeks. That will make them more viable for the next election.
This will, however, be their last opportunity to put out the significantly slanted polls with the intention of swaying voters. Just today, one 'national' poll shows Clinton ahead by 10, while numerous other 'state' polls show Trump leading by narrow to wide margins.
If you have been neck-deep in poll-watching, you have been allowing yourself to be duped by these daily polls. Notice that each time one candidate supposedly got several points ahead, all of the sudden the race tightened. That was manipulation by the news agents to keep viewers coming back.
Trump over performed the RCP average during the primaries by an average of 2.6%.”
Thank you for that data point.
Regardless, favorable movement today in the RCP average!
also recent polls in NV, CO, NC and FL showed a “hilary surge”.
But even looking closely at 538...the story is sort of the same as it was right before the debate.
Assuming Trump takes NC, FL and NV (he’s pretty close in each, even at 538)....then he has to get Colorado.
Colorado currently seems like a stretch. But if he takes Colorado (provided he also takes NC, FL and NV), then he wins.
Obviously if Trump surprises the lamestream media and wins in PA, WI or MI...well, then, not only does he win but likely Trump landslide (I think if he takes one of those, he takes them all).
Its the demographics of the electorate. Women and minorities will put Hillary over the top. That’s being reflected in the polls. We’re outnumbered I’m afraid.
I care about the polls also.
I think we should establish a policy around here of “let those who obsess over the polls do so” and “let those who don’t, continue to not”.
1. His horrible debate performance... he refused to advertise, had 86 million watching, and was absolutely awful
2. He's undisciplined. his 3 am tweets. His constant bragging. His being taken off message so easily.
3. His refusal to advertise!!! And he brags about it! He's getting blistered all over TV and radio, and just like the debate, the outrageous charges are not being answered! Rallies convert no one- ads could
Yeah, and the “polls” show Obama with a 55% approval rating too. You believe that?
They’re trying to sell Brooklyn bridges. Don’t buy it. Look at the size of the crowds and the enthusiasm. Trump landslide guaranteed.
But, go ahead and vote. It'll make you feel better.
I was going to cite the same election, but you beat me to the punch. Wonderful election!
Thanks. I never saw that before.
I'm an attorney and I don't dare talk politics around my colleagues. I don't want to deal with being called an idiot or a bigot and having to spend an hour educating willfully ignorant people.
I was getting an ultrasound procedure the other day and the technician, who was a young Mexican American, happened to ask me who I was going to vote for. I told him Trump and he smiled and agreed. Then we had a pleasant conversation about guns. He was a second amendment guy.
Thanks, Tokyo Rose. Are you trying to suppress turnout too?
Big rallies don’t always correlate with success as any candidate from George Wallace to Bernie Sanders could attest to. On the positive side, this surge in small donors for Trump is a really good indicator. People literally ‘buy into’ the success of a candidate with a ten or twenty dollar contribution. I hope these people vote early and spend time helping their friends to do so as well.
Yeah it was. Still have fond memories of trudging down to the local library in the snow to cast my ballot.
Trump can not win this unless he makes 3 fundamental changes in a hurry... Improved Debate performance, Discipline, and ADS!!!! you DON'T win an election when your approval rating is in the 30s, no matter how bad your opponent is!
I am in NJ just outside Philly area. We get Philly news. Just saw Ads yesterday and they were pretty good Ads. I agree he needs more. Philly will cheat more than anywhere else. Its what they do. I did see the NRA is going to do an Ad Blitz for Trump/Pence. This will be helpful in many states. I think it will be significant in Pa. statewide.
For future reference, my caveat also applies to exit polling. If I get exit polled, my policy is to say nothing. But I don’t look like a Hillary voter, so they probably won’t ask me.
Polls are guesses. Everyone guesses what the voter turn out will look like and creates a poll to reflect that turn out model. The pollsters who guess correct are anointed as geniuses, the ones who guess wrong are scorned.
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