Posted on 04/24/2016 9:27:12 AM PDT by ziravan
Donald Trump will not reach 1237 delegates before the GOP July Cleveland Convention and there will be a floor fight for the Nomination.
For the purposes of this analysis, both Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are peripheral characters. Both will continue to pursue their best strategy to the nomination, Trump on first ballot, Cruz on 2nd or 3rd (most likely 4th after Florida delegates are released).
There will be a contested convention because the media will push for it.
1. Blood in the streets in Cleveland? Damn, that's a generational story. Somebody's gonna win a Pulitzer here.
2. Permanent fracture in the GOP? That's the left's wet dream.
All you have to do is look at the flow of the narrative to understand that the media is fully vested in a contested convention and everything they hope to gain from it.
They haven't put thousands of camera hours into this narrative to let it slip away.
Fortunately for them, getting from here to there is a two step jump. After this Tuesday, the narrative will be (is already starting) that Sen Cruz is remaking himself into a more positive image - he's being nicer, showing his humanity- and is gaining new respect in Indiana).
Between Indiana on May 3rd and California on Jun 7, the media will have a month to sell its story to its home base, California.
Bernie Sanders most likely drops after Tuesday's election, so there will be no Democrat primary to attract democrat voters. Also, voting for offices below President in California goes by two most popular vote getters, regardless of party. This means democrat voters can switch to vote in the GOP Presidential primary without losing the ability to vote for their choices "down ballot". And, the deadline to switch is May 23rd.
Now. Democrat crossover has been good for Donald Trump, right? Partially, yes, however, with a contested democrat primary, crossover voters have generally been disaffected democrat voters.
California, with no contested democrat primary and for all the Presidential marbles on the GOP side, will bring out a different democrat animal, an Operation Chaos democrat. Chaos this cycle for the GOP certainly favors a contested convention.
The only check to voting for Chaos is that for Cali leftists, that's a vote for Cruz. Here though, Trump's more strident supporters are making the case by threatening to walk. Daydreams of a permanent rift in the GOP will be make Nominee Cruz more palatable to leftists who believe such a rift makes him unelectable. And that's even assuming the convention doesn't turn to a white knight that will make things worse!
Watch the narrative after Tuesday. Sen. Cruz being the little engine that could narrative for Indiana is a portend for a straight month of media influencing the California outcome.
The media wants a contested convention. They will work for it. They already are working for it. Fortunately for the media, they get a month to play to their home base, California.
Dream on....
My main point is that the media isn’t going to walk away from their dreams of contested convention coverage.
This, to me, as a Cruz supporter, is a scarier proposition than the possibility of a White Knight, something I never thought the establishment has much of a chance of pulling off.
If the media wants it because they believe that it will tear us down and get Hilary elected, that doesn’t make me salivate...
It gives me pause.
The media doesn’t like to be proven wrong, but they are masters of changing the narrative, adjusting their rhetoric, at the last minute.
In the meantime, I see the media as full of arrogant busybodies who go through life with the mantra, “challenge accepted.”
>>> I do support Sen Cruz.
>>> In this case though, my observation undermines that support
which is exactly why a vote for Cruz at this point plays into the hand of the GOPe. Wise up, people... a brokered convention means President Hillary, plain and simple.
Here’s more to give you pause: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3416210/posts
The media has been pushing to eliminate Trump from the beginning.
How’s that working out for them?
usafa92 had it right. The MSM is done with Cruz; and will instead focus on more 'gotcha' interviews with the GOP Nominee - Donald J. Trump - in order to allow Cankles to finally pivot to the general election.
The same thing happened here in FL before March 15. We were inundated with ads, calls, etc. Finally turned the ringer off. Most of the ads were for Cruz, especially on talk radio. It was incessant. Didn’t make any difference. Trump got 47% of the vote and Cruz was a distant third. In IN it will make even less difference.
People aren’t stupid. Even LIVs know that at this point a vote for Cruz is a vote to split the party and give the presidency to Hillary. Very few are willing to do that.
Tuesday night, Trump will expand his delegate lead over Cruz to 400+ and that momentum will carry over to the May 3 IN primary.
So Trump will be 450+ delegates ahead of Cruz ten days from now. We may well see Cruz himself drop out after IN. It will be the proper thing to do.
I’m very curious to see what kind of Indiana momentum stories come out of CNN and Politico on Wed/Thurs.
I missed Jim’s thread. Would you be willing to post the link?
The Cheap Labor Express wants the amnesty candidate they paid for.
The only way they can do that at this point is from a contested convention.
Those advocating for a contested convention are helping The Cheap Labor Express kill the one chance we have to break their stranglehold on the GOP.
Cruz is now working for the Cartel he once excoriated.
In realville your average leftist would cut off their own... whatever... before they'd vote for Ted Cruz. The original Operation Chaos was a publicity stunt for Rush Limbaugh that had no impact whatsoever on the 2008 Democratic primary. These wackadoodle fringe plans never do.
When you posted, you didn’t have your tagline. Now you do. Dishonest.
And yes, I have noticed that media is backing off the contested convention. Not totally but I noticed it today.
YEs, they have. I’ve watched two news stories today that say Trump will wrap up the nomination before the convention. The pivot in the narrative will now be the coming Trump v. Hillary fight. That will blow away any faux drama from Cleveland.
Not going to happen. The GOP is about to capitulate...as they do so well.
I’ve used the same tag line without change for a few weeks now. I neither added nor removed it for this thread.
Even so. The bad lip reading it was lifted from wasn’t kind to Sen. Cruz.
My you are dishonest.
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