Posted on 10/21/2014 3:14:23 AM PDT by Reaganite Republican
With news of Ebola, ISIS, and a plunging stock market hitting the airwaves in recent months, the obvious has become clear to me:
The Republicans are going to win, and they are going to win big.
Democrats, resting upon the laurels of their 2012 victories -largely fuelled by young women who care more about sex and contraception
than they do about anything else- have shown sheer incompetence in their handling of these crises, and the American public is smelling the proverbial rat in the basement.Accordingly, Democratic numbers have tanked in recent weeks...
[They’re just waving the bloody shirt trying to mobilize the base.]
They do this every election. Unfortunately, it works every time while conservatives sit on their laurels.
I don’t follow short-term polls hardly at all. You are the one I defer to.
“...they see the ‘dead’ GOP taking all 22 Senate races...”
Knee-jerk response here but it ‘sounds’ like an exaggeration to me. A warning alarm to rally the leftist base. I’d love it to be true, but what seems too good to be truly usually is.
Or, uh, what truly seems too truly truly is ... never mind.
Don’t believe it. This is a “get out the (Dem) vote ploy, to get the Left to show up and vote(multiple times).
The “Daily Kos article” on which this thread is based is a post by someone trolling Daily Kos who immediately got banned (check the comments). It does not represent what the Kossacks are thinking, or even what the Kossacks want us to think that they’re thinking. It’s the equivalent of some liberal signing up at FR and posting how the GOP is going to lose Senate seats and lose the House.
Regarding the claims in the post, they are preposterous. I am more bullush than most, but it is ridiculous to believe that the GOP will win the Senate races in DE, IL and OR (NJ, NM and VA are possibly, although huge longshots, and MI and M are unlikely as well). In the House, he lists every potentially winnable seat—although many of them are not winnable with the candidates that we have and with the level of funding that they have—and also threw in a few districts that betray his ignorance (for example, Sanford Bishop came close to losing in a huge upset in GA-02 in 2010, but redistricting made his dustrict black-majority and entirely safe for any Democrat, particularly its incumbent). And as for the governor’s races: quite a bit of fantasy there as well.
I think that we’re going to gave a great night next Tuesday, with net pickups of 10 in the Senate and maybe 20 in the House, and that we could end up with 38 of the 50 governorships. But, barring something unforeseen, we’re not going to approach the fantasy set out by the guy trolling Daily Kos.
Oops, fat fingers on my iPhone:
based *on* a post
bullush = bullish
NJ, NM and VA Senate seats are possible, but huge longshots
MI and MN Senate seats are unlikely
dustrict = district
I think 6 to 8. You’d have to be smoking crack to believe there’ll be a full on sweep.
I’m betting a lot of these really big figures are being tossed out so that when the GOP takes the Senate and picks up a few House seats it gets spun as still being “below expectations” and portrayed as a Dem win.
I still think, to the degree the thread article was legit, they are hoping to both motivate their base, de-motivate us (why bother, it's a landslide anyway?) and manage expectations -- so any Dem win at all can be declared Republicans' overall failure.
Telling the base that their party is going to lose in a landslide two weeks from now would have the opposite effect: if “it’s all over,” why work overtime? You may have heard stories about how Carter’s concession early on election night in 1980 resulted in West Coast Democrats who were standing in line to vote to go home instead; such stories may or may not be apocryphal, but, like the best mythology, they describe human nature to a tee, so they don’t have to be truthful in order to be “true.”
And no one leaves their line to vote when they hear that their candidate won.
The Dems have also come close to perfecting their knock and drag technique for Black GOTV. They don’t need as much paid media when it’s much more cost effective to deploy local canvassers/community organizers into the higher denisity urban areas where most Black live.
See the PJ Media on Catalist. It has some good charts showing Return on Investment for mobilizing base elements.
That doesn’t mean that there aren’t some token race-baiting ads (like Grimes is running in KY now), but that paid media is being tailored to other, harder to reach groups (like single women) or to convince the Party faithful in general that their candidate is still putting up a fight.
There’s an addition element as well that you might want to include: in many cases the collaboration (better called collusion) is coerced.
Basically donor entities are threatened into pumping (laundering) money into the progressive apparatus. If they try to stop, they are targeted for destruction, as a way to send a message to anyone else who thinks of leaving.
Case in point is what happened to Susan B Komen Race for the Cure when they cut off funding to Planned Parenthood. It was a token amount of money that PP didn’t really need, but Komen and it’s leaders were persued with an incredible level of viscuousness and vindictiveness for daring to do so.
IMHO there’s a massive amour of evidence out there supporting multiple RICO cases against the Progressive Political Machine ...
I like the Kos article that predicts a complete sweep by the pubbies and I really do think the republicans will win big — mostly because the anti war dems, the anti disease dems and the healthcare stickershock dems will stay home.
But the Kos guy thinks the dems won’t win a single election. That’s a little over the top imho but I’d love to see that happen.
He shouldn’t worry, though -
there’s very little that the GOPe wants to change about what’s going on now,
except that they would like to be in charge of it.
Oops, I just noticed that I said that the GOP could end up with 38 out of 50 governorships. That would take a remarkable night in which not only would the GOP pick up AR, CO, CT and IL while holding AK, AZ, FL, GA, KS, ME, MI and WI (losing only PA), but also with the GOP picking up more difficult RI, HI, MA, MN, MD and NH. I think that the GOP will be at 32, not 38, governorships after Nov. 4 (I must have been thinking of the 32-18 advantage when I wrote 38).
I am confident that even with as bad a job as Obozo and the DemonRats are doing the party of stupid will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Everyone, go FREEP the KOS poll about the Rat Armageddon (at bottom of article):
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/19/1337454/-2014-Democratic-Armageddon
Probably just trying to rally the base
It won’t go well for them, tho
They operate very, very similar to the Gambinos
Of this there is no doubt. I was born in Ohio, and I can
tell you in Youngstown or the E side of Cleveland back in my day,
there was precious little difference between mafia and politics,
all the same people for the most part
Trafficante would be Exhibit A...
“Democrats should not win at ANY level.”
Agreed. The only thing Democrats would be good for is cleaning up the festering bodies of ebola victims.
If we took almost all of those listed, it would be like 1894 or 1920.
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