Posted on 01/20/2012 2:06:58 PM PST by parksstp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldE1wQUVXd3lSLXh2anZvYzJ2NzhpbWc
This is the final simulation that will be run prior to tomorrow's primary. It takes into account Perry's departure/endorsement and last night's debate.
Prior to Monday, I ran an earlier simulation that showed the following results:
ROMNEY, MITT 158,671 32.08%
GINGRICH, NEWT 127,320 25.74%
SANTORUM, RICK 107,722 21.78%
PAUL, RON 65,968 13.34%
PERRY, RICK 23,324 4.72%
HUNTSMAN, JON 11,607 2.35%
As of last night, I have updated the projection data to reflect the following:
Santorum (60% 08 Huck Vote, 10% Fred Vote, Duncan Hunter total) Gingrich (40% 08 Huck Vote, 90% Fred Vote, 40% McCain) Romney (08 Vote Total, 60% McCain, 50% Rudy) Paul (08 Vote Total, 50% Rudy, The majority of the increase in voters in a particular county)
Based on these assumptions, the simulation produced the following results:
GINGRICH, NEWT 175,040 35.36%
ROMNEY, MITT 161,191 32.56%
SANTORUM, RICK 87,483 17.67%
PAUL, RON 71,354 14.41%
More detailed information is available in the Google Document link above along with county by county breakdown, though I will post all the counties info here for people not wanting to go to the link for virus concerns, etc.
As for turnout, I am still weary that I have overprojected with 495,000 voters. However, at least some Political Scientists in Rock Hill agree with me on about a 500,000 turnout that was written this morning
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-20/south-carolina-primary-historically-is-must-win-for-nomination.html
For those that think Santorum is too high, keep in mind that 60% is around what he got on the second ballot of the Evangelical vote prior to all the controversey that erupted. I think he'll get near that again, and it appears it will be okay and won't result in a splitting vote allowing Romney to win.
As for Paul, who knows. Because I am guesstimating on turnout, his numbers may be the most off.
However, this is the model I stand by for the primary results when they come out tomorrow. Depending on how things go, I might do one for FL.
Below is the county by county breakout showing 08 Totals, projected 2012 totals and votes by county.
ABBEVILLE (Turnout was 2,132/34%. Projecting: 2,325/34%) Gingrich (903/39%) Santorum (583/25%) Romney (538/23%) Paul (301/13%) Notes: One of the few counties where Santorum will finish ahead of Romney.
AIKEN (Turnout was 18,293/43%. Projecting: 19,703/38%) Gingrich (6,785/35%) Romney (6,683/34%) Santorum (3,785/19% Paul (2,450/12%) Notes: While the results looks close, this is huge if Gingrich carries Aiken. This would be a swing from McCain winning in 08 and would signal that Gingrich would be on his way to victory in the state primary
ALLENDALE (Turnout was 286/30% Projecting: 347/30%) Romney (117/34%) Gingrich (109/31%) Paul (76/22%) Santorum (45/13%) Notes: This is a small, but strongly Democrat, African-American County. Prime County target for voter manipulation by the Ron Paul Supporters.
ANDERSON (Turnout was 21,052/43%. Projecting: 23,813/43%) Gingrich (8,473/36%) Romney (6,289/26%) Santorum (5,425/23%) Paul (3,626/15%) Notes: Another Conservative County in the NW. I might be over-projecting turnout a tad, might be closer to 22,000.
BAMBERG (Turnout was 788/34%. Projecting 902/34%) Gingrich (306/34%) Romney (285/32%) Santorum (167/19%) Paul (144/16%) Notes: While this is a small county, like Aiken, if Romney can only draw here or actually loses, it’s a good sign Gingrich will win the state.
BARNWELL (Turnout was 1,605/34%. Projecting: 1,733/31%) Gingrich (624/36%) Romney (542/31%) Santorum (379/22%) Paul (188/11%) Notes: Yet another small county that Gingrich swings from the moderate. These are small, but they do add up statewide)
BEAUFORT (Turnout was 19,636/52%. Projecting 22,167/45%) Romney (10,571/48%) Gingrich (6,045/27%) Paul (3,450/16%) Santorum (2,101/9%) Notes: Beaufort is by far Romney’s best performing county in the State. Weaker totals for him here will mean he is in big trouble in SC. The Romney people would like 12,000+ votes but I don’t think they’ll get there
BERKELY (Turnout was 15,293/42%. Projecting: 17,104/37%) Gingrich (5,938/35%) Romney (5,910/35%) Santorum: (2,663/16%) Paul: (2,593/15%) Notes: Again, if Gingrich carries or ties in these small counties, it puts pressure on Romney to run up larger margins in the bigger cities
CALHOUN (Turnout was 1,440/39% Projecting: 1,674/39%) Gingrich (591/35%) Romney (475/28%) Santorum (312/19%) Paul (296/18%) Notes: Another small county. Turnout may not be as high as projected, but again, Gingrich has reached where he is tying or leading Romney in these smaller counties
CHARLESTON (Turnout was 34,226/49%. Projecting: 37,392/45%) Romney (15,859/42%) Gingrich (12,170/33%) Paul (5,530/15%) Santorum (3,833/10%) Notes: Romney’s second strongest county behind Beaufort. Combined, his team wants to have about a 16 or 17 thousand vote cushion which could ride out the state totals elsewhere, but his leads appear to be shrinking. Also a Ron Paul voter manipulation area.
CHEROKEE (Turnout was 4,560/34%. Projecting 5,011/34%) Gingrich (1,915/38%) Romney (1,265/25%) Santorum (1,187/24%) Paul (644/13%) Notes: Heavy Evangelical/Thompson Vote helps both Gingrich and Santorum)
CHESTER (Turnout was 1,803/29%. Projecting 2,049/26%) Gingrich (827/40%) Santorum (468/23%) Romney (426/21%) Paul (328/16%) Notes: Another small county with a strong Evangelical/Thompson voter population that helps both Gingrich and Santorum.
CHESTERFIELD (Turnout was 2,202/26%. Projecting 2,525/26%) Gingrich (909/36%) Santorum (680/27%) Romney (552/22%) Paul (384/15%) Notes: Yet another small county where the voting population favors Gingrich and Santorum. Too bad this model could not have been followed at the state level.
CLARENDON (Turnout was 2,329/34%. Projecting 2,585/31%) Gingrich (952/37%) Romney (774/30%) Santorum (539/21%) Paul (320/12%) Notes: Another small county, but every one helps offset the coastal cities
COLLETON (Turnout was 2,919/34%. Projecting: 3,441/32%) Gingrich (1,158/34%) Romney (1,095/32%) Paul (655/19%) Santorum (533/15%) Notes: Turnout may not be as high as I projected. Still, this is another county that Romney hopes to win that if all he does is draw or lose closely is a good sign for Gingrich
DARLINGTON (Turnout was 5,127/35%. Projecting 5,559/32%) Gingrich (1,977/36%) Romney (1,572/28%) Santorum (1,418/26%) Paul (592/11%) Notes: Strong Evangelical Presence helps both Gingrich and Santorum
DILLON (Turnout was 1,354/23%. Projecting 1,511/17%) Gingrich (549/36%) Santorum (405/27%) Romney (369/24%) Paul (188/12%) Notes: Dillon is home to the Ben Bernake Interchange at I-95 Exit 190. This is a small county, but again, every vote helps.
DORCHESTER (Turnout was 13,374/45%. Projecting: 15,375/39%) Romney (5,528/36%) Gingrich (5,111/33%) Paul (2,661/17%) Santorum (2,075/13%) Notes: Turnout may not be as high as projected here. Tried my best.
EDGEFIELD (Turnout was 2,521/40%. Projecting 3,070/40%) Gingrich (1,006/33%) Romney (821/27%) Paul (664/22%) Santorum (579/19%) Notes: Turnout may not be as high as projected. The Ron Paul supporters in each specific county are the hardest, if not, impossible to figure out where they’re at. At best, his numbers should even out at the state level.
FAIRFIELD (Turnout was 1,501/38%. Projecting 1,797/35%) Gingrich (610/34%) Romney (537/30%) Paul (360/20%) Santorum (290/16%) Notes: Historically, this has been a good county that’s tracked with the statewide percentages. We’ll see how it goes for 2012. Turnout may not be as high as projected.
FLORENCE (Turnout 11,270/38%. Projecting: 12,254/34%) Gingrich (4,490/37%) Romney (3,736/30%) Santorum (2,666/22%) Paul (1,362/11%) Notes: Friendly people-area location Gingrich will need to do well in to offset margins in other areas.
GEORGETOWN (Turnout was 6,640/42%. Projecting 7,586/37%) Romney (3,015/40%) Gingrich (2,442/32%) Paul (1,155/15%) Santorum (974/13%) Notes: Another strong county for Romney outside the city areas
GREENVILLE (Turnout was 59,004/51%. Projecting 62,375/47%) Gingrich (24,126/39%) Romney (19,885/32%) Santorum (11,601/19%) Paul (6,763/11%) Notes: This is the big enchilada. A 4,000+ vote cushion in Greenville covered with the other conservative areas should be enough to carry the state.
GREENWOOD (Turnout was 6,858/40%. Projecting 7,884/36%) Gingrich (2,797/35%) Romney (2,270/29%) Santorum (1,522/19%) Paul (1,295/16%) Notes: Turnout may not be as high as projected here. Hard to tell.
HAMPTON (Turnout was 848/25%. Projecting 1,024/25%) Gingrich (334/33%) Romney (270/26%) Santorum (218/21%) Paul (202/20%) Notes: Another small, Democrat likely county. Turnout might be overestimated here.
HORRY (Turnout was 25,570/40%. Projecting: 30,625/37%) Romney (10,206/33%) Gingrich (9,490/31%) Paul (6,179/20%) Santorum (4,750/16%) Notes: Romney would like to win here by 5,000+ votes, which would be a good sign that he was leading statewide. Less than 1,000 votes ahead here is more good news for Gingrich. Turnout may not be as high here, using numbers to leverage the manipulated vote totals of the Paul supporters. This area contains Myrtle Beach.
JASPER (Turnout was 1,062/32%. Projecting 1,125/25%) Gingrich (390/35%) Romney (364/32%) Santorum (273/24%) Paul (102/9%) Notes: Another tiny county. These small counties went to McCain last time, but the forecast trend has Gingrich edging Romney out in them which could be pivotal in the final statewide tally.
KERSHAW (Turnout was 6,889/42%. Projecting 7,863/38%) Gingrich (2,772/35%) Romney (2,417/31%) Santorum (1,420/18%) Paul (1,254/16%) Notes: Turnout may not be as high as projected.
LANCASTER (Turnout was 5,019/31%. Projecting 6,070/25%) Gingrich (2,188/36%) Romney (1,321/22%) Santorum (1,300/21%) Paul (1,261/21%) Notes: Turnout may not be as high here as projected.
LAURENS (Turnout was 5,954/39%. Projecting 6,639/39%) Gingrich (2,573/39%) Romney (1,684/25%) Santorum (1,469/22%) Paul (913/14%) Notes: As Expected.
LEE (Turnout was 876/28%. Projecting 1,047/28%) Gingrich (367/35%) Paul (240/23%) Romney (235/22%) Santorum (205/20%) Notes: Small counties are harder to project. Turnout may not be as high as projected, which is why Paul managed to be projected second here ahead of Romney, which is probably unlikely. Giving it my best shot here and hoping it averages out at the statewide level.
LEXINGTON (Turnout was 34,485/46%. Projecting 39,571/44%) Gingrich (13,607/34%) Romney (12,848/32%) Paul (6,835/17%) Santorum (6,281/16%) Note: This would be a SHOCKER if Newt won Lexington County. The Romney people need to win here by about 2,000+ votes in regards to running even where they are weak. A win here for Gingrich would indicate a victory for him in SC. Primarily, the strength is due to the Thompson presence. Now that Newt is pulling 90% of this vote, whenever that total is close to Romney’s 2008 vote total, they are offsetting, and Newt is getting the edge because he is getting a share of both the Evangelical and McCain voters.
MARION (Turnout was 1,622/30%. Projecting 1,734/27%) Gingrich (650/37%) Romney (529/31%) Santorum (403/23%) Paul (152/9%) Note: Another small County, but every vote counts
MARLBORO (Turnout was 755/19%. Projecting 919/17%) Gingrich (298/32%) Romney (236/26%) Paul (194/21%) Santorum (191/21%) Note: Turnout may not be as high as projected. Smaller counties are more difficult to predict
MCCORMICK (Turnout was 1,119/46%. Projecting 1,156/46%) Romney (494/43%) Gingrich (422/37%) Santorum (165/14%) Paul (75/6%) Notes: Less of an Evangelical Presence here. Little growth in this county that leans Dem so hard to see where the Paul voters come from here.
NEWBERRY (Turnout was 3,707/39%. Projecting 4,347/33%) Gingrich (1,548/36%) Romney (1,407/32%) Paul (771/18%) Santorum (621/14%) Notes: Another county McCain won that Romney is projected to fall short. Main reason here is FT outran Romney by about 200 votes here. Every county that happens cuts Romneys winning margins in the county or allows Gingrich to pull ahead.
OCONEE (Turnout was 9,215/44%. Projecting 10,315/44%) Gingrich (3,521/34%) Romney (3,341/32%) Santorum (1,959/19%) Paul (1,494/14%) Notes: Turnout may not be as high as projected.
ORANGEBURG (Turnout was 4,587/38%. Projecting 4,912/36%) Gingrich (1,851/38%) Romney (1,649/34%) Santorum (939/19%) Paul (473/10%) Notes: Another County that Romney team is hoping to win. Gingrich’s 40% share of the 08 McCain vote, should it hold, appears to be enough to win the primary.
PICKENS (Turnout was 14,651/45%. Projecting 16,060/45%) Gingrich (6,171/38%) Romney (3,956/25%) Santorum (3,746/23%) Paul (2,187/14%) Notes: Gingrich is picking up enough of the Evangelical, McCain, and Thompson votes to get close to the vote totals Huckabee ran
RICHLAND (Turnout was 28,667/49%. Projecting 31,473/49%) Romney (12,474/40%) Gingrich (10,562/34%) Paul (4,234/13%) Santorum (4,203/13%) Notes: This includes Columbia area. The Romney people would like to win with 5,000 votes+ here. When Perry and Huntsman were both still in, his lead was over 6,000 here. This has dropped now to around 2,000 votes. Doesn’t appear to be enough to offset statewide totals.
SALUDA (Turnout was 1,972/38%. Projecting 2,230/38%) Gingrich (812/36%) Romney (687/31%) Santorum (390/17%) Paul (341/15%) Notes: Small counties the Romney people at least had hoped to win, now they’re hoping to just break even here.
SPARTANBURG (Turnout was 30,150/46%. Projecting 32,447/44%) Gingrich (12,717/39%) Romney (9,157/28%) Santorum (6,907/21%) Paul (3,666/11%) Notes: Big Prize along with Greenville. Gingrich’s numbers have been more than enough to offset the coastal areas.
SUMTER (Turnout was 7,561/41%. Projecting 8,133/35%) Gingrich (3,201/39%) Romney (2,318/29%) Santorum (1,854/23%) Paul (760/9%) Notes: ? See other similar counties. It’s basically the same trend.
UNION (Turnout was 2,060/28%. Projecting 2,329/28%) Gingrich (937/40%) Santorum (563/24%) Romney (497/21%) Paul (332/14%) Notes: Strong Evangelical/Thompson vote pushes Romney to 3rd behind Santorum here.
WILLIAMSBURG (Turnout was 1,521/30%. Projecting 1,620/26%) Gingrich (609/38%) Romney (527/33%) Santorum (360/22%) Paul (124/8%) Notes: As expected
YORK (Turnout was 20,766/38%. Projecting 23,243/31%) Gingrich (9,207/40%) Romney (5,460/23%) Santorum (5,036/22%) Paul (3,540/15%) Notes: This was Thompson’s best county in 2008, and if the projections hold, York alone may give Newt an insurmountable lead along with the other favorable areas.
NICE WORK but I’d give Newt 55%-60% of the Huck vote :~)
I think Newt wins by close to double digits, if not by 10-12 points.
Wow, what an awesome amount of work you put into that! Thank you.
God love you. You put a capital ‘G’ in political Geek. I mean this as a compliment.
Too narrow, it has to be bigger than that.
It’s CRUNCH TIME, folks. Wake up early, and start making phone calls in to South Carolina!!
Excellent work.
Thank you again. I appreciate these.
I did start to flip that at the beginning. That would’ve put Gingrich at almost 45% of the vote. Not sure if he’ll get even over 40% tomorrow. I saw the Clemson poll that had Santorum at 9% or 11% and a PPD/Insider that had him at 16%. My best guess is Santorum is going to get at least 16% of the vote, most of which will probably be Evangelical women, but I guess we’ll have to wait tomorrow to see for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t take them all night to count the votes. Some of these counties are so tiny in population, they should be in quickly. Where I believe Newt has cut into the lead that Romney had was with actual voters who were planning on voting for Romney but have changed their mind.
Those small counties, though, are what’s intriguing. McCain carried them over Huckabee and while they don’t account for much, each margin added up to offset the totals in the Huckabee counties allowing McCain to win. This time, it looks like Romney is running barely even or behind Newt in almost all of them, putting more pressure on Romney to perform well in the larger cities.
I’d say Newt, then Mitt by a 10 point spread 46/36 - . Santorum and Paul now in single digits - 9/9
This is a pretty sad statement on the country. Santorum (totally ignored by the media) wins a state and we don’t know for weeks while the MSM annoints Mitt as the guy and the RINO’s push their guy Newt on us in the meantime.
We’ve been had. Again.
Neither Mitt nor Newt is a conservative and neither is going to beat Obama.
Interesting - and I had predicted in an American Thinker piece a couple weeks ago that South Carolina would have a turn out of 500 thousand also - meaning it would dwarf Iowa (120K) and NH (250K) combined.
Rain could knock that down, but that should favor Newt and Paul I think, whose supporters will show up no matter what.
I think you are over counting Santorum vote. I think he really lost ground in both debates. Yes, I know there’s a split feeling on that - but Jay Nordlinger’s take this morning at NRO where he thought Newt won and Santorum came off as pouty is correct. This also tracks with Drudge’s poll on the debate only - for whatever that is worth - and other polls showing softening support for Santorum recently.
Yes, Newt has taken some from Mitt but I think he’s taken a lot from Santorum. These are voters weighing the anti Romney and they watch those two in the debates and think to themselves “now who can smash Obama in the debates?”
First off, Ron Paul should not be on the ballot. He may ‘say’ he’s a Republican but he preaches Libertarianism ... and the GOP is merely giving him a bully pulpit for his ideas and undermining their credibility when they treat him as a ‘Republican’ ....
So without Ron Paul ... let’s have a re-vote count, please.
I think Mitt’s big problem is, before SC everyone thought he was the best to beat Obama, the safest. I think soon as they saw Newt in the debates they realized NEWT had a better chance to beat Obama because he can articulate conservatism and that Romney has as much baggage as Newt if you really look. They all do.
Hmmmm.....
Very interesting. Again nice job.
Yes, you put a lot of work into this. I just pray that it is true and holds up by the end of Saturday night. GO NEWT GO!
I believe you are under counting the Santorum vote myself, and over counting Romney. I would not be surprised, however, to see Paul below 3%. We’ll see tomorrow.
I agree, and I predict a 6-8% win for Gingrich, notwithstanding the vastly over-rated evangelical endorsement of Santorum. Evangelicals are not robots who vote based solely on what they hear from the pulpit. They are real, ordinary people like all of us, with minds of their own. And those who are motivated to vote are fired up by Gingrich's bulldog debate performances.
Also, Newt is from neighboring Georgia, while Mitt is a Yankee lib, and Santorum is from someplace called Indiana. That will count in the voting.
Saying Newt isn’t conservative reminds me of someone who tries to spew that Santorum is not conservative.
You’re both dead wrong.
Let’s recap among those who ran or are running for POTUS this cycle..
Conservatives:
Newt
Santorum
Perry
Bachmann
Cain
Roemer
Liberals:
Willard
Huntsman
Obama
Nutjobs:
Ron Paul
Johnson
Karger
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