I think you are over counting Santorum vote. I think he really lost ground in both debates. Yes, I know there’s a split feeling on that - but Jay Nordlinger’s take this morning at NRO where he thought Newt won and Santorum came off as pouty is correct. This also tracks with Drudge’s poll on the debate only - for whatever that is worth - and other polls showing softening support for Santorum recently.
Yes, Newt has taken some from Mitt but I think he’s taken a lot from Santorum. These are voters weighing the anti Romney and they watch those two in the debates and think to themselves “now who can smash Obama in the debates?”
Santorum is going to get a share of that Evangelical vote, which will probably be around 60% of the 08 Huckabee vote. When I started working on the final simulation last night, I originally was going to follow a 60-40 split for Newt, but as soon as I applied it to the major counties statewide, Newt was getting too much, like over 45 and closer to 50%. He was coming within 50 votes of winning Charleston and 125 of Beaufort. If that happened, the Romney people would not have even been in SC today, they would have packed up, conceeded, and moved to FL.
Also, Women in SC make up about 48-49% of the primary. More Women voted for Huckabee and McCain last time than Men, getting 33% and 34% respectively. To give Newt a majority of the Evangelical vote would mean giving him a near plurality of the Female vote in SC, something which is very unlikely to occur at this current time.
Even as my model stands now, I have my doubts about Lexington County. This is considered a favorable area to Romney that has Gingrich barely winning, but still, a win here is a big thing.