NICE WORK but I’d give Newt 55%-60% of the Huck vote :~)
I think Newt wins by close to double digits, if not by 10-12 points.
I did start to flip that at the beginning. That would’ve put Gingrich at almost 45% of the vote. Not sure if he’ll get even over 40% tomorrow. I saw the Clemson poll that had Santorum at 9% or 11% and a PPD/Insider that had him at 16%. My best guess is Santorum is going to get at least 16% of the vote, most of which will probably be Evangelical women, but I guess we’ll have to wait tomorrow to see for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t take them all night to count the votes. Some of these counties are so tiny in population, they should be in quickly. Where I believe Newt has cut into the lead that Romney had was with actual voters who were planning on voting for Romney but have changed their mind.
Those small counties, though, are what’s intriguing. McCain carried them over Huckabee and while they don’t account for much, each margin added up to offset the totals in the Huckabee counties allowing McCain to win. This time, it looks like Romney is running barely even or behind Newt in almost all of them, putting more pressure on Romney to perform well in the larger cities.
I’d say Newt, then Mitt by a 10 point spread 46/36 - . Santorum and Paul now in single digits - 9/9