Posted on 10/31/2004 6:10:25 PM PST by hawaiian
Guys, imagine if you were a Kerry supporter. There wasn't ONE SINGLE NATIONAL POLL that showed him ahead today. NOT ONE.
In summary: 3 polls showed the race tied (though the ABC version of the Washington Post/ABC poll has Bush at 49, Kerry at 48), and Zogby's poll showed a 1 point gain + 2-point surge for Bush.
2 POLLS: Bush +1
1 POLL: Bush +2
2 POLLS: Bush +3 (including the CBS poll with Bush's approval rating having jumped 5 points
1 POLL: Bush +5
POLLS WITH KERRY LEADING: ZERO
ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND: 1 Poll with Bush +5, another with Bush +6
EVEN BETTER NEWS: Bush's job approval rating is at 49.7. Presidents tend to get 2-3 points more than their job approval rating, and TODAY'S NUMBERS HAVE BUSH AT HIS HIGHEST NUMBERS IN MONTHS.
Be happy --- things are going to turn out the way we want them. Furthermore, the state polls by Zogby/Gallup are an absolute embarrassment. They're all over the place (Gallup showing Bush up 8 on the same day that Kerry is down 8 IN THE SAME STATE). The only credible state polling is Mason-Dixon's, and those numbers are FANTASTIC -- just compare the favorable/unfavorable numbers between Bush/Kerry on those: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6369953/ (NOTE: they're still showing the typo with 41% "neutral on Kerry" and 14% negative on Kerry in the Ohio numbers).
The Fox Dynamics poll is also a joke, showing Bush losing among men. Also, don't forget, Zogby and Rasmussen weight their polls 39-35 (D-R), not taking into account that incumbents have tended to add 4% on average, on to their parties' totals, in reelection bids (this is historical fact!) Let's just do all we can do over the next 36 hours, and trust me, Kerry will be a goner on Tuesday night.
Not only that. The ONLY way CNN/Gallup could get to a tie was by assigning ALL the undecideds to Kerry. Among likey voters the result was 49% Bush 47% Kerry.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/31/poll.sunday/index.html
"pervious elections, the Gallup organization attempted to estimate how the undecideds would vote Tuesday.
The result was a tie of 49 percent each for Bush and Kerry, with 1 percent for Nader and 1 percent for other candidates."
I'm also not sure that these numbers reflect what many think will be a mild surge in W's favor as a result of the unease from the bin Laden tape.
I just can't in spite of my best attempts.
I really don't see Bush taking Hawaii, but at the same time, Kerry is extremely unappealing to Hawaiians -- couldn't be more opposite than the Hawaiian people (I'm not a Hawaiian, by the way).
I recall several polls prior to the 2000 election that had W up. I also thought we were going to win with 340EVs. Too many similarities to make me feel confident.
I know how energized our base is this election...I'm wondering about the other side's parsites?
This is the most important election in my lifetime IMO. For the first time in my life the United Nations and Western Europe has gone from a distraction to a concern. I'm afraid that voters are looking at our disfavor among them as a reason to vote for Kerry.
They will appease the Muslim vermin like they did Hitler in the 30s...40 million+ died. I'm concerned about the Sweden refernce in OBL tape....liberals may key on it.
If we pull a Spain...our lives will change forever.
Not only that. The ONLY way CNN/Gallup could get to a tie was by assigning ALL the undecideds to Kerry. Among likey voters the result was 49% Bush 47% Kerry.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/31/poll.sunday/index.html
"pervious elections, the Gallup organization attempted to estimate how the undecideds would vote Tuesday.
The result was a tie of 49 percent each for Bush and Kerry, with 1 percent for Nader and 1 percent for other candidates."
Muleteam1
Thank you West Coast Conservative. If we get thru this, we all need to pounce on the Kerry-media for keeping him alive.
We will never forget.
Muleteam1
The hand-wringing over voter fraud by some is ridiculous IMO. The campaigns know who a good portion of the phony voters are, and if necessary to win, will challenge them. Enough of the folks are already caught and fraud can only go so far.
Forgot to add the Battleground Poll: Bush leads 49-46.
Nice.
They have been extremely consistent this year.
Someone said they were way off in 2000, but hopefully they are good this year.
BTW, they were almost exactly spot-on in 1992 and 1996.
It seems the DUI took out many pollsters in 2000 because the effect was delayed a bit.
People are underestimating the "odds" factor of having 10+ national polls ALL having Bush in the lead or tied. I think he's up a solid 3-4 points.
bump
One point lead in the final minute and the other team with the ball. The game doesn’t get any better than that. This is when the game is the most fun and the metal of a person is tested. That is when you need to know you are going to win and when the game is won. The election is perhaps close and perhaps not?? Can we really poll in a post 911 world?? Will the Bush voters actually answer the phones or are there voters like me who won’t answer a call that is not recognized? Do they answer a pollster truthfully and admit that they are afraid of the terrorist or do they just say they haven’t decided. We will find out tomorrow but all we know is right now the score is 0-0 with GW having a solid base in the South.
The best thing to do today is to ignore the Stone-age press and the polls and just go about your business. It is just another day and whatever happens tomorrow will happen. Do everything you can to get the votes in and let the people decide what the outcome is. There is still no doubt in my mind that GW is going to win and we will see the strength of the silent majority.
The major key to this vote is whether the Blacks are going to vote for Yaawn or are they staying home this time?? These polls are not picking up turnout from who or who for. If they do not vote in large numbers and in 95% then the election will be over in short order in states like PA, MI and OH along with FL. This is a very likely scenario.
One problem we political hounds have is that we live and die by the polls. These polls are all within the margin of error and likely the margin is an exaggeration. The calls that I make are extremely positive and large percentages are voting late because they don’t trust the counters. Look for a late surge for GW.
We are going to witness one of the greatest elections of all times. Ignore the press, ignore the polls because nobody can predict this. Only get out and vote and the Lord will carry the day. Seek comfort today and sleep well tonight because in the end the only thing you can do is pray for this comfort and the wisdom of our people.
Pray for W and Our Election
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