If Trump’s Rage Brings ‘Civil War,’ Where Will the Military Stand?

The Daily Beast ^ | October 6, 2019 | Patricia Ravalgi

[2ndDivisionVet]

The moment may come when soldiers have to choose between the Constitution and Donald Trump. No doubt most will embrace the Constitution. But some will see that as a tough call.

Earlier this week Donald Trump, commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces, tweeted that his impeachment “will cause a Civil War” from which the country might never recover. Picking up on remarks made by an evangelical pastor on Fox News, Trump did not just say his removal would lead to a huge electoral defeat for the Democrats, or even mass demonstrations. He said “civil war”. Americans taking up arms against other Americans in his name.

“Civil War 2” started trending on Twitter. So, for a time, did #CivilWarSignup.

In the modern era, real civil wars have been the great affliction of Third World countries—conflicts that split nations and societies along political, ethnic or religious fault lines. They are very often accompanied by martial law and resolved by military intervention. Is this what the president has in mind? Where would the U.S. military stand in such a situation? A view from the inside indicates the armed forces are as divided as the rest of the country—and divided is a dangerous place for the U.S. military to find itself.

After spending 19 years in Washington with intelligence jobs in Congress, at the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (focusing on counterterrorism and counterintelligence), I had the opportunity to join the commander’s Red Team at U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida.

Within a few years, however, CENTCOM’s senior leadership told us Red Team’s “alternative analysis” was “confusing” the commander. (Truth was, they really didn’t want any competing analysis contradicting what the traditional intelligence analysts were selling.)

[schurmann]

Original article assumes a uniformity of culture, political proclivities, and worldview that simply doesn’t exist in the military establishment. Same is true of the exchange99 piece.

Been watching the military since I first signed on the dotted line 48 years ago. The variety of personalities and opinions was soon apparent.

Civilians never figure this out. Journalists think they have, but their crash-course education in such matter has lent them false confidence. Arrogance is something the aren’t short of anyway.

More interestingly, most members of the military don’t figure it out either.

The great bulk of personnel sign up, get trained, and then spend the rest of their time in uniform within one technical specialty inside one service department. Results in parochiality, chauvinism, and insularity but the armed forces cannot do it any other way: costs too much to train someone, then let them jump into another specialty on a whim.

Holds true for lifers, in a slightly different manner.

To be of use in a higher grade, they must put in time learning the job and accumulating experience. They cannot be allowed to hop all over; the system would collapse under the weight of ignorance - especially the dearth of “fingertip feel” (or subconscious good judgment) that can only be engendered and refined by putting in time on the job. There are no shortcuts.

Over the years, in defiance of the best will in the world, most come to assume that every other branch and unit is just like theirs. It’s never true.

Another problem afflicts the highest ranks of the officer corps.

The hyper-ambitious, fast-burning types get promoted early; the long stretches of lower-level duty that develops the (unconscious) deftness and good judgment which makes for better leadership never happen; they jump from billet to billet, never staying in one job nor one place long enough to really get their feet on the ground.

They must of necessity lean on a coterie of subordinates to save their bacon and bail them out of problems - many of which happen thanks to their own blunders, which they commit because they don’t have sufficient experience. And because they change assignments so often they aren’t around to take the hit if something bad goes down - which they had caused.

And it happens to the best of them. When they start to play politics it gets worse. And only the tiniest minority declines to play politics.

So they arrive at elevated rank without a really good base of experience - though most believe they have it. They are surrounded by like-minded colleagues who reinforce their exalted notions of themselves, supported by yes-men who tell them what they want to hear. And of course they don’t question this orthodoxy; they convince themselves they really have paid their dues and met big challenges, that they have attained “wisdom.”

But mostly they simply fall into validation of groupthink. And their egoes are never small; no one rises so high without a self-assuredness that grates on us lesser mortals. Telling them they are wrong can be a chore - even when one succeeds. Some of us lost our jobs that way.

It takes an extraordinary effort of imagination, even of willpower, to break servicemembers out of these patterns. Generals and admirals are supposed to have attained sufficiently broad experience to rise above narrow service interests, but not many can.

What does this portend? No one can predict which way “the military” will jump, if it comes to down to it.

[ridesthemiles]

What about all those Perfumed Princes wearing three and four stars appointed by Obama? “”””

The nationwide supply of DEPENDS will be severely reduced.

[AzNASCARfan]

Hmmm, this might tell you where the Marines stand...

https://www.marines.mil/News/Messages/Messages-Display/Article/1979422/manpower-guidance-for-activation-and-deactivation-of-reserve-component-rc-marin

[ksm1]

The reason why the media is pushing this now is that the left knows that it has no power whatsoever, outside of guns that the government pays for. And their hired guns don’t like them too much.

[ronnie raygun]

If a civil war erupts its all on the rats and their followers we will be the ones to clean up

[Wilderness Conservative]

I hope you are right and that neither of us ever finds out the hard way if you are wrong.

[pierrem15]

Unless the Insurrection Act is invoked.

[Windflier]

This is a nonsensical premise spread by the left.

Is it? We conservatives have been talking about a potential civil war for years and years.

So has the left, though not quite in the same terms and understanding as the right.

[48th SPS Crusader]

The U.S. Military will always stand for America and its citizens and the Constitution. If a political party tries a soft coup to over turn an election and in some manner forces the issue and tries to remove a President from office I have no doubt the Military will put a stop to it!

[Windflier]

I think initially they will do what they are ordered to do.

Depends upon the orders.

If our troops are ordered to stand against The People, there will be instant and widespread mutiny in the ranks, followed by widespread violence in the streets.

If Congress attempts to compel the military to oust the President, there will be also be widespread mutiny in the ranks, but civil war to boot.

In the unlikely case that Congress does impeach and convict the President, there will still be sectarian violence over it, because most on our side view this exercise as seditious, illegal, and unwarranted.

Over half the country would consider the government to be illegitimate if they remove Trump from office, which will lead to a wholesale unraveling of our government and our culture.

The Democrats are too sick with delusions and anger to care whether they rip the country apart or not, so they must be stopped. Mitch McConnell has said that impeachment stops with him.

I sure hope so. He may be the only person who can prevent a conflagration in this county. At least in the short term. In the long term, I think it's going to come to violence anyway.

[Windflier]

If the Pentagon orders attacks on either side of a civilian conflict, the field grade officers and nearly all the rake and file will not comply. Our military personnel are not perfect, but they are literally the best citizens we have.

Spot on.

[GOPJ]

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and thus clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary — H.L. Mencken

Because it isn't about the specifics that the Left are pushing. In the final analysis it is about weilding raw power over the rest of us. Tallguy

In the darkest corners of my soul I know you're right but I struggle against that awareness.

In spite of that, I still feel we should try to negotiate with democrats to split the country. Remember they have to come up with lies for their base... lies that make it seem like they really do care about the silliness they lecture about... That it's not just about power - even though it is 'just about power'.. Maybe we can use that against them.

[DuncanWaring]

About the CWII Ping List

The CWII Ping List is short for Civil War II. It is NOT a list of people advocating another Civil War in America. It is a list of people who are interested in the parallels between the Civil War (or War Between the States, if you prefer) and our current situation, or more generally are noting the references to a 'coming Civil War' that are made in the press.

Of course sometimes this is merely a figure of speech, such as "The Tea Parties are fighting a civil war for the heart of the GOP". This would not merit a CWII ping.

On the other hand someone saying something like "The events in California are reminiscent of what happened in Yugoslavia in the period proceeding the Civil War" would merit a ping.

FR rules do not permit advocating for the overthrow of the Republic, and I am not aware of anyone doing so on the list. Still many do see that as the political climate worsens we may be heading in a direction that makes such a conflict all but inevitable, particularly if other avenues for resolving our differences are taken away. Such as widespread vote fraud by leftists making elections meaningless, or a small cadre of judges over-ruling all attempts to end destructive policies over the clear will of the people.

The correct keyword tag for the Civil War II ping list is "CWII". Please Freep Mail me to get on the list

[tired&retired]

There are a lot of Vets who have already put their life on the line for this wonderful country and survived to live a long life.

Now, nearing the latter part of their life they are more than willing to give up their remaining years to save this country.

Don’t just count on the active military to fight. There are still many tough patriot Vets.

[tired&retired]

Just stop food going into the major cities.

Truckers could shut down this country as fast as the military.

[TLI]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJh7Ye1Qvc8

The first (exact) one minute is a bit off but after that he gets right into it.

It is 51 minutes long, I plugged my laptop into the TV and treated it like a short movie.

He is nailing it in every category.

This had a thread here on FR a while back but bears repeating.

Often.

.

[Windflier]

Just ran across this on the FR Facebook group:

I’d be interested in your take on this please. Somethin’s happin here ... sh*t’s about to get real?

From Jim Stone.
Rumor has it that all other armed forces got a similar letter. This particular letter is for the Marines and Navy. Note, the date is October 3, this is something new.

Jade helm was training, done under TRADOC, however, this particular notice authorizes live fire on American soil.

Here is the title: MANPOWER GUIDANCE FOR ACTIVATION AND DEACTIVATION OF RESERVE COMPONENT (RC) MARINES ORDERED TO ACTIVE DUTY ISO DEFENSE SUPPORT OF CIVIL AUTHORITIES
Date Signed: 10/3/2019 | MARADMINS Number: 550/19

Here is a key quote:

“Requests for Federal assistance will come with little warning. As required, the Marine Corps must rapidly mobilize RC units and personnel IAW this MARADMIN in order to respond to threats in the Homeland.”

What does this mean? It means that civil war in the United States will be answered by America’s own armed forces.
However, doing this is risky business, because they will be ordering these soldiers to take action against their own friends and families. This could backfire.

Though the Reserve units have been deployed in the United States for various reasons, having them deploy to “defend civil authorities” is unprecedented, this is something new folks.]

https://www.marines.mil/News/Messages/Messages-Display/Article/1979422/manpower-guidance-for-activation-and-deactivation-of-reserve-component-rc-marin

[Candor7]

It would be illegal for the military to do anything. Posse comitatus.

The US Marines can be deployed to protect people,property, and to help people who are suffering. All that is needed is a state Governor’s request, a Presidential order, and implementation of the order by the Secretary of the Navy can begin for a period of 30 to 120 days, without an act of Congress.

See thread :

MANPOWER GUIDANCE FOR ACTIVATION AND DEACTIVATION OF RESERVE COMPONENT (RC) MARINES

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3783773/posts#9

Also the Posse Comitatus Act applies to the US Army and the US Air Force. It does not apply to the US Navy ( US Marines.)

[Fury]

That’s not what President Trump tweeted.

Here is what he wrote:

“If the Democrats are successful in removing the President from office (which they will never be), it will cause a Civil War like fracture in this Nation from which our Country will never heal,”

—- Civil War like fracture ——-

Big difference between the tweet and what the author of the article said was tweeted.

Given that, not worth reading the rest of the article, as it uses a false premise.

[Mark17]

The slant is strong in this one..
Very first 6 words blame it all on Trump.

I stopped reading after the first sentence.