Free Republic

With its nomination settled, the GOP has been healing its wounds, but Democratic feelings are still raw because of the ongoing fight between Clinton and Sanders. The latest round of polls re­leased pri­or to Me­mori­al Day week­end, which showed Hil­lary Clin­ton and Don­ald Trump in a vir­tu­al tie, set off in­tense hand-wringing among Demo­crats, Clin­ton back­ers, and Trump de­tract­ors alike. They much pre­ferred the polls from a month earli­er giv­ing the former sec­ret­ary of State a double-di­git lead over the real-es­tate mogul. What’s lost on many people is that any tri­al heat between Trump and Clin­ton today is like com­par­ing...

It took Republicans three tries to win control of the US Senate and consolidate Congress under their leadership. In the end, the landscape left by the 2008 Democratic triumph left them uniquely vulnerable in the sixth-year midterm of an unpopular presidency. The tables will turn in 2016, warns National Journal’s Charlie Cook, as the gains of 2010 will make Republicans highly vulnerable to losing control of the Senate once again: Today, The Cook Political Report puts two Republican-held seats in the “Toss Up” category—the open seat in Florida and Kirk in Illinois. That toss-up column will certainly grow as...

Over the holiday weekend, political reporters were shocked to learn that the nonpartisan political handicapper Charlie Cook believed that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton only had a 25 or perhaps 30 percent chance of even running for president in 2016. Cook reportedly told a group of conference attendees in Kansas City that, following Clinton’s “disastrous book tour,” it was unclear if she would continue to pursue high office. Well, it turned out that this was a bit of misreporting via The Kansas City Star. Cook had actually said that Clinton only has a 25 or 30 percent chance...

Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of running for president, and in any case he thinks she is either “rusty” or “she has lost her fastball.” He bases that on her disastrous book tour, in which she said some very inappropriate things and also did not sell many books. The author of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter for almost 30 years also disappointed a local audience when he did not give Jeb Bush much of a chance of gaining the Republican nomination. “Bush has...

Political anaylst Charlie Cook bills himself as "non-partisan and independent." But on today's Morning Joe, Cook couldn't curb his enthusiasm for Chris Christie. Cook said of Christie that there is "testosterone coming out of every more pore in his body" and that Christie's attitude "inoculates him against being called a RINO, pantywaist liberal Republican." For good measure, Cook said he would "pay money" to see Christie reach down the throat and pull the lungs out of Tea Party member daring to call Christie a liberal! View the video here.

There are those who say that the tea party is fading in influence, but nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, the movement is on the cusp of achieving what once seemed nearly impossible: keeping the Senate Democratic. A year ago, famed political handicapper Charlie Cook gave Republicans a 60 percent to 70 percent likelihood of capturing control of the Senate; now, he tells me the likelihood of it remaining Democratic is 60 percent. The switch in fortunes can be attributed to many causes — a slate of lackluster Republican candidates high among them — but one thing...

Here is video of renowned political prognosticator Charlie Cook reacting to President Obama’s recent arrogant assertion that, “I don’t think about Sarah Palin.” Cook told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell that Obama “has to pray every night for Republicans to nominate Sarah Palin,” because she is a “no fly zone” for Independent voters according to him. Obama was dismissive of Palin after being asked if he thought he could beat her in a potential 2012 matchup for President. Cook cited Palin’s poor showing in polls among Independent voters as the reason why Obama has to be hoping for a Palin nomination in...

Veteran election handicapper Charlie Cook left no doubt Wednesday that he believes a large wave will sweep Republicans into control of the House next week. The founder of the Cook Political Report said he will be “sacking groceries” if Democrats manage to cling to power in the lower chamber. Republicans need to net 39 seats to win the majority in the House. Cook, appearing on MSNBC, said 100 seats are in play. If anything surprising happens election day, Cook said, it will be how bad Democrats fare. “To be honest, I think the odds are higher that it’s over 60...

Here is video of political prognosticator Charlie Cook saying that a Republican “wave” is coming in this November’s Midterm Elections, and that he believes they will regain control of the House of Representatives. Cook is now estimating a gain of 35-45 seats for the GOP, but says that is a “conservative” estimate. It will likely be more. the GOP needs a net gain of 39 seats to take control of the House. In the Senate, he thinks the GOP will come up short of the 10 seat gain needed to regain control. It is possible, but he said the GOP...

The president's chances of getting re-elected might well rise if the House flips.Taking the classic Tip O'Neill "all politics is local" approach, The Cook Political Report examines the 435 House races individually. That step-by-step process indicates that Democrats will lose 30 seats, 10 shy of what Republicans need to take control. But this year, the overall national environment must also be taken into account. Measures estimating the overall popular vote for the House, such as the Pollster.com and RealClearPolitics.com averages of national poll results on the generic congressional ballot test, give Republicans a 2.8-percentage-point advantage. Considering that most polls are...

I confess to not having read this guy’s blog before, but (a) his sidebar resume is certainly respectable and (b) he’s taken seriously enough by Jonathan Chait to have earned a post today at TNR showcasing his glorious, glorious results. The standard “anything can happen before November” caveat applies, but between this and Charlie Cook’s warning last week, we’re slowly moving from a “can the GOP take back the House?” reality to a “how many more seats than the Dems will the GOP end up with?” reality. Here’s where things stand on the Great Liberal Realignment of 2008: The generic...

In his health care push, President Obama stressed the need for cutting out unnecessary treatments. That didn’t go over well with the public. It may also unnerve vulnerable incumbents. After all, if Obama was willing to deny a new hip for his ailing grandmother, how hard will he and the Democratic party fight to save a moderate Missouri congressman who’s down 10 points in the polls? Veteran election analyst Charlie Cook is betting they’ll remove the feeding tubes:

Hours before President Barack Obama's appearance with the Democratic candidate in the Massachusetts Senate race, political handicapper Charlie Cook sent an unusual weekend update to his Cook Political Report subscribers saying that Scott Brown, the Republican, is now a slight favorite.

Come November, Senate Democrats' 60-vote supermajority is toast. It is difficult, if not impossible, to see how Democrats could lose the Senate this year. But they have a 50-50 chance of ending up with fewer than 55 seats in the next Congress...Charlie Cook National Journal Speaking to Fox News host Sean Hannity Monday night, RNC Chairman shocked many republicans by saying the Democrats' current 79-seat advantage in the chamber is too big a hurdle to overcome. "We are beginning to do assessments on the individual races, but I think overall, given what this administration's proclivities are, we are going to...

NBC News political analyst Charlie Cook, the editor and publisher of “The Cook Political Report", appeared recently on MSNBC's "Hardball" with Chris Matthews, and shared his outlook for the upcoming 2010 elections in November. Along with Cook were other political talking heads who basically confirmed Cook's assumption that 2010 is shaping up to be a very tough year for Democrats and a potential banner year for the minority party, the Republicans. Things could change, obviously, but the excerpts of the conversation between Matthews and Cook are a bit of an eye-opener if you're a Democrat, and encouraging if you're a...

MATTHEWS: Can a Republican lose this year coming up? Can a Republican incumbent lose any race anywhere next year? COOK: I would not be surprised to see no Republican incumbent, House or Senate, lose. MATTHEWS: How about a Democrat? We‘ve got five vulnerable people here, Specter, Lincoln, Bennet, Dodd. You say Dodd is the most vulnerable. Who is the second-most vulnerable? COOK: Reid— BROWNSTEIN: Reid or Lincoln. Lincoln is in a situation where, again, it‘s more generic than personal. This is a state kind of filled with the kind of voters that have been most resistance to the direction Obama...

One might expect Democrats to be euphoric during this holiday season. After recapturing control of Congress in 2006, and last year taking back the White House by electing America's first African-American president, Democrats are now on the verge of passing a historic health care reform law. But instead of celebrating, they are bitterly divided. Former Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean and liberal bloggers are urging the Senate to defeat the health care bill. Many are criticizing President Barack Obama for compromising too much, saying the proposal doesn't go far enough, while more moderate and conservative Democrats are petrified the bill...

Here is video of pollster and political analyst Charlie Cook telling MSNBC's Chris Matthews that things are not looking good for Democrats. He pointed to new polling that shows on "Party Identification," Democrats now have only a 5-point advantage over Republicans, 45%-40%. That's down from a 17-point margin in January, 52%-45%. Cook said Party ID is always a "lagging indicator," meaning things have really gone sour for Obama. He also warned that Democrats face a real problem in next year's mid-term election because mid-terms are almost always dominated by older voters, whom Cook said Obama is weakest with. Matthews and...

Experts see double-digit Dem losses By: Josh Kraushaar August 31, 2009 04:50 AM EST After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010. Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance. Top...

If Team McCain needed some "bulletin-board material"—the kind of outrageous taunt from the opposition a coach will pin up in the locker-room to inspire his troops—they got if from Charlie Cook tonight. So confident is the pollster of an Obama victory, he's proclaimed that if McCain wins, he'll go to work bagging groceries or behind a fast-food counter. Cook was a guest on this evening's Race for the White House. It was in looking at the Electoral College map with host David Gregory that he made his super-sized pledge. View video here.