Romney’s Road to 270 Relies on ‘Hawkeye Granite’ or ‘Southern Sweep’

ABC News ^ | May 10, 2012 | Amy Walter

[Clintonfatigued]

Eager to debunk the conventional wisdom that suggests that the Obama campaign has an easier path to an electoral college victory than they do, Romney campaign officials briefed reporters today on the many ways they can reach the magic 270 number.

With names like the “3-2-1″ plan, the “Southern Sweep” and “Hawkeye Granite,” the Romney campaign argues that it can lose some traditionally “red” states and still win the White House.

In the “4 + 1″ plan, for example, Romney would need to carry four states – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio, but just one of these former “red” states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico or Iowa. A win in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire – both of which went “blue” in 2004 – plus the original four would also work.

The “3-2-1″ map requires Romney to win three traditionally Republican states – Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana; pick up two states carried by George W. Bush in 2000/2004 – Florida and Ohio; and then pick up just one of eight states, many of which were considered Republican before 2008 – New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The path that, in my estimation, looked the most realistic was dubbed the I-80 scenario. In it, Romney would need to hold onto to all the states carried by John McCain, carry the states along Interstate 80 – Nevada, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio, and then North Carolina and Florida. Colorado is probably the toughest of those states for Romney to carry (and, technically, the interstate doesn’t go through there, it snakes along its northern border). If he lost Colorado, he’d need to carry Virginia.

The Romney campaign continues to be optimistic about its chances in traditionally blue states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

“Alaska Running Mate”.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is a list of various electoral vote formulas which could lead to a Republican victory. They all sound plausible.

[GOPsterinMA]

Romney wins with over 300 EV’s: All the Bush 2004 states plus NH, WI, ME-02 and quite possibly PA and MI.

It should be a fairly early night. Plus, the House stays GOP and the Senate turns GOP.

Write it down.

[PMAS]

*

[rogue yam]

I think like you think.

I see a gargantuan GOP sweep in the making here.

People don’t like being broke and afraid, people don’t like being weak and aimless abroad, people don’t like putting the environment ahead of people, people don’t like all of this identity politics and division, and people just don’t like Barack Hussein Obama, his nasty wife, or that dopey jerk VP of his.

The American people are going to vote “No!” on all of this crap.

[DemforBush]

“Romney [would need] to win three traditionally Republican states – Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana”

Anything’s possible between now and Election Day, but I would lay odds that Romney takes all three of those in November. There is real question as to whether Obama ever actually legitimately carried Indiana in the first place (Lake County shenanigans, etc.) and North Carolina went Blue by a cat’s whisker in the worst electoral year for Republicans in my lifetime. 2012 isn’t 2008, and NC goes deep Red this time, IMHO. Virginia will be a little closer, but I think it still goes red come the big day.

I also think Romney will take Ohio and Florida if he runs a decent campaign. Pennsylvania has broken my heart before, but I still think it’s open to going red this time.

[DJtex]

I agree that the Independent middle which gave hope and change a chance have now branded him a loser. We could still blow it and Romney is someone hard to love, but as Patton said, “America loves a winner and will not abide a loser.”

10x more than Carter, or Mondale, or McGovern, this guy is an obvious loser, and he cannot change his stripes..

[Salamander]

I saw the the absolute most bizarre thing today.

A little car with the whole rear end plastered with the usual hippie “COEXIST”/Mother Earth etc bumper stickers was in front of us and I groaned inwardly, as I always do when I see a rolling liberal billboard *but* as we passed the car, on the side, was HUGE sticker that said “ANYBODY BUT OBAMA 2012” in with his stupid logo in a red “/” circle.

I was gobsmacked.

His Birkenstock/patchouli incense constituency is fleeing him?

I *almost* have hope for seeing an end to this national nightmare.

[BillyBoy]

On paper it sounds pretty easy. I pretty sure IN and NC will flip back to the GOP column without even any effort on our part (one of my liberal RAT friends even admitted that NC is "dead to her" after the gay marriage vote and she thinks the Dems should just concede those 15 electoral votes to the GOP)

I think Virginia is doable with a good ground game and strong candidates further down the ticket, and even states that Bush tried his hardest to win but always ended up in the RAT column by 1% -- like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania -- swung to the GOP in 2010 and now look winnable if we do it right. IMO, Nevada, Iowa and Ohio, Colorado are wildcards equally divided between the two parties that could go either way depending on a variety of factors. The only "McCain state" the Dems think they can win in McCain's home state of Arizona. They won't take it, especially given the excitement of Dems in 2008 vs. 2012, but I hope they blow a ton of money wasting their time in the state and trying to get out the "Hispanic vote", as if all Hispanics are like blacks and will mindlessly vote for Obama.

On paper, our chances for victory are very, very good. But I have a sinking feeling about Romney, and that he'll find someway to screw this up. Ick.

[nathanbedford]

I agree with you and not with the conventional wisdom of the pundits that it's going to be close. Sometime before the election it will break and I believe it will break decisively for Romney. That prediction comes with a reservation, however, that there is no October Surprise.

But just to play the game if it stays close: Obviously Ohio is the Keystone state, not Pennsylvania, for purposes of handicapping the electoral college vote. With Ohio all things are possible for Romney and without it it will take a near miracle to win for two reasons: First, he must cobble something together with Wisconsin and Nevada or some such combination. Second, the loss of Ohio means that Romney's message is not resonating and he is likely to lose places like Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada and it will be very unlikely that he could under the circumstances pick up the odd state like Wisconsin plus one to substitute for Ohio. On the other hand, this tendency will also run the other way if his campaign gathers the momentum both you and I expect it will then Romney is likely to pick up Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and run pass 300 electoral votes.

We have seen several straws in the wind blowing in Romney's direction: First, North Carolina has now become a virtual lock for Romney; Second, Romney has just pulled up even in Ohio; Rasmussen has now been joined by two other polls showing Romney in a virtual tie in Ohio; the primary results in Wisconsin look very favorable for the Republicans; even the fiasco in the Democrat primary in West Virginia signals an incipient revolt in Democrat ranks; a look at the map reminds me that West Virginia abuts Ohio; Rasmussen has got Romney up 4 or 5 points nationally in the three-day rolling average poll of likely voters and the states have not yet been freshly pulled to bring the trends up to date which undoubtedly will show marked improvement for Romney.

Obama has not been able to sound a Chord which resonates. He has failed in his attempt to separate women from the Catholic Church, for example. The youth vote remains apathetic compared to 2008, as does the Hispanic vote. The momentum is clearly with Romney.

Finally, Goldman Sachs is just downgraded its GDP expectations to 1.9%. The employment numbers this week are just as anemic as last week, although they have not received media attention. Gasoline prices are holding at a very high level and if they come down it probably means that they are coming down in price because demand in a weakened economy is reduced. There is, therefore, virtually no hope of a palpable improvement in our living standard before the election which would prompt the voters to give Obama an opportunity to stay the course and certainly nothing to impel them to reward Obama for a job well done.

[rogue yam]

Well, I spend most of my time in San Francisco and Berkeley and Hussein will still get most of the votes around here. But enthusiasm is way, way down. People are not going to be fundraising and volunteering and making calls, etc. like they were in 2008. No way no how.

[Salamander]

In those places, I’d be shocked to death if they *weren’t* still ‘feeling the tingle’.

I’m out here in relatively Normal World and not seeing much *for* him a’tall.....;D

[RC one]

No offense but BS. Obama will win with 287 to 334 EVs. Even if Romney manages to win Ohio and florida, Obama still wins 287-251. I believe the house will remain in GOP hands and we have a fair shot at taking the senate. I think there’s a real possibility of a senate tie which will leave it under democratic control should Obama win. Bottom line: four more years of bitterly divided government in America. Write that down.

[JLS]

I think Romney wins every state that Bush took in either 2000 or 2004. That gives him 296. Wisconsin was probably stolen from Bush both times he ran, but they have voter ID now. So I expect Romney will pick it up to get to 306.

If Romney can turn around the close states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, then he is at 352. He might pick up some other states in this case too.

As far as the toss up states in the event of a close election, I believe they are CO, MI, MN, NM, NV, OH, PA and WI. That means the Romney starts ahead by about 258 to 186. Romney can get over the top by winning MI, OH, PA or any two of the other thought if he only gets NM and NV it is thrown into the House where Romney would win based on the GOP majority in 32 delegations.

[Dragonspirit]

I feel very good about the election. N. Carolina, Indiana and Virginia are ours.

He is also polling very well in Ohio and Florida, and as most undecideds break for the challenger that right there would put us int he position that if we add one more flip like New Hampshire that is the game.

That doesn’t even count how good things are looking in Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.

[RC one]

play around with this interactive electoral vote map and tell me if you still think that Romney will be winning by a landslide or even at all. I don’t see it happening. This has been my prediction for over a year incidentaly.

http://www.270towin.com/

[VRWC For Truth]

Mittens is toast. He needs a majority of Democrats to vote for him. Not gonna happen.

[rawcatslyentist]

“Alaska Running Mate”. and ditch the Liberal Massholechusets gov from the ticket.

[Smokin' Joe]

270? Go west...