Skip to comments.Romney’s Road to 270 Relies on ‘Hawkeye Granite’ or ‘Southern Sweep’
Posted on 05/10/2012 9:29:34 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Eager to debunk the conventional wisdom that suggests that the Obama campaign has an easier path to an electoral college victory than they do, Romney campaign officials briefed reporters today on the many ways they can reach the magic 270 number.
With names like the 3-2-1″ plan, the Southern Sweep and Hawkeye Granite, the Romney campaign argues that it can lose some traditionally red states and still win the White House.
In the 4 + 1″ plan, for example, Romney would need to carry four states Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio, but just one of these former red states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico or Iowa. A win in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire both of which went blue in 2004 plus the original four would also work.
The 3-2-1″ map requires Romney to win three traditionally Republican states Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana; pick up two states carried by George W. Bush in 2000/2004 Florida and Ohio; and then pick up just one of eight states, many of which were considered Republican before 2008 New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The path that, in my estimation, looked the most realistic was dubbed the I-80 scenario. In it, Romney would need to hold onto to all the states carried by John McCain, carry the states along Interstate 80 Nevada, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio, and then North Carolina and Florida. Colorado is probably the toughest of those states for Romney to carry (and, technically, the interstate doesnt go through there, it snakes along its northern border). If he lost Colorado, hed need to carry Virginia.
The Romney campaign continues to be optimistic about its chances in traditionally blue states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
“Alaska Running Mate”.
This is a list of various electoral vote formulas which could lead to a Republican victory. They all sound plausible.
Romney wins with over 300 EV’s: All the Bush 2004 states plus NH, WI, ME-02 and quite possibly PA and MI.
It should be a fairly early night. Plus, the House stays GOP and the Senate turns GOP.
Write it down.
I think like you think.
I see a gargantuan GOP sweep in the making here.
People don’t like being broke and afraid, people don’t like being weak and aimless abroad, people don’t like putting the environment ahead of people, people don’t like all of this identity politics and division, and people just don’t like Barack Hussein Obama, his nasty wife, or that dopey jerk VP of his.
The American people are going to vote “No!” on all of this crap.
“Romney [would need] to win three traditionally Republican states Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana”
Anything’s possible between now and Election Day, but I would lay odds that Romney takes all three of those in November. There is real question as to whether Obama ever actually legitimately carried Indiana in the first place (Lake County shenanigans, etc.) and North Carolina went Blue by a cat’s whisker in the worst electoral year for Republicans in my lifetime. 2012 isn’t 2008, and NC goes deep Red this time, IMHO. Virginia will be a little closer, but I think it still goes red come the big day.
I also think Romney will take Ohio and Florida if he runs a decent campaign. Pennsylvania has broken my heart before, but I still think it’s open to going red this time.
I agree that the Independent middle which gave hope and change a chance have now branded him a loser. We could still blow it and Romney is someone hard to love, but as Patton said, “America loves a winner and will not abide a loser.”
10x more than Carter, or Mondale, or McGovern, this guy is an obvious loser, and he cannot change his stripes..
I saw the the absolute most bizarre thing today.
A little car with the whole rear end plastered with the usual hippie “COEXIST”/Mother Earth etc bumper stickers was in front of us and I groaned inwardly, as I always do when I see a rolling liberal billboard *but* as we passed the car, on the side, was HUGE sticker that said “ANYBODY BUT OBAMA 2012” in with his stupid logo in a red “/” circle.
I was gobsmacked.
His Birkenstock/patchouli incense constituency is fleeing him?
I *almost* have hope for seeing an end to this national nightmare.
I think Virginia is doable with a good ground game and strong candidates further down the ticket, and even states that Bush tried his hardest to win but always ended up in the RAT column by 1% -- like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania -- swung to the GOP in 2010 and now look winnable if we do it right. IMO, Nevada, Iowa and Ohio, Colorado are wildcards equally divided between the two parties that could go either way depending on a variety of factors. The only "McCain state" the Dems think they can win in McCain's home state of Arizona. They won't take it, especially given the excitement of Dems in 2008 vs. 2012, but I hope they blow a ton of money wasting their time in the state and trying to get out the "Hispanic vote", as if all Hispanics are like blacks and will mindlessly vote for Obama.
On paper, our chances for victory are very, very good. But I have a sinking feeling about Romney, and that he'll find someway to screw this up. Ick.
But just to play the game if it stays close: Obviously Ohio is the Keystone state, not Pennsylvania, for purposes of handicapping the electoral college vote. With Ohio all things are possible for Romney and without it it will take a near miracle to win for two reasons: First, he must cobble something together with Wisconsin and Nevada or some such combination. Second, the loss of Ohio means that Romney's message is not resonating and he is likely to lose places like Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada and it will be very unlikely that he could under the circumstances pick up the odd state like Wisconsin plus one to substitute for Ohio. On the other hand, this tendency will also run the other way if his campaign gathers the momentum both you and I expect it will then Romney is likely to pick up Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and run pass 300 electoral votes.
We have seen several straws in the wind blowing in Romney's direction: First, North Carolina has now become a virtual lock for Romney; Second, Romney has just pulled up even in Ohio; Rasmussen has now been joined by two other polls showing Romney in a virtual tie in Ohio; the primary results in Wisconsin look very favorable for the Republicans; even the fiasco in the Democrat primary in West Virginia signals an incipient revolt in Democrat ranks; a look at the map reminds me that West Virginia abuts Ohio; Rasmussen has got Romney up 4 or 5 points nationally in the three-day rolling average poll of likely voters and the states have not yet been freshly pulled to bring the trends up to date which undoubtedly will show marked improvement for Romney.
Obama has not been able to sound a Chord which resonates. He has failed in his attempt to separate women from the Catholic Church, for example. The youth vote remains apathetic compared to 2008, as does the Hispanic vote. The momentum is clearly with Romney.
Finally, Goldman Sachs is just downgraded its GDP expectations to 1.9%. The employment numbers this week are just as anemic as last week, although they have not received media attention. Gasoline prices are holding at a very high level and if they come down it probably means that they are coming down in price because demand in a weakened economy is reduced. There is, therefore, virtually no hope of a palpable improvement in our living standard before the election which would prompt the voters to give Obama an opportunity to stay the course and certainly nothing to impel them to reward Obama for a job well done.
Well, I spend most of my time in San Francisco and Berkeley and Hussein will still get most of the votes around here. But enthusiasm is way, way down. People are not going to be fundraising and volunteering and making calls, etc. like they were in 2008. No way no how.
In those places, I’d be shocked to death if they *weren’t* still ‘feeling the tingle’.
I’m out here in relatively Normal World and not seeing much *for* him a’tall.....;D
No offense but BS. Obama will win with 287 to 334 EVs. Even if Romney manages to win Ohio and florida, Obama still wins 287-251. I believe the house will remain in GOP hands and we have a fair shot at taking the senate. I think there’s a real possibility of a senate tie which will leave it under democratic control should Obama win. Bottom line: four more years of bitterly divided government in America. Write that down.
I think Romney wins every state that Bush took in either 2000 or 2004. That gives him 296. Wisconsin was probably stolen from Bush both times he ran, but they have voter ID now. So I expect Romney will pick it up to get to 306.
If Romney can turn around the close states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, then he is at 352. He might pick up some other states in this case too.
As far as the toss up states in the event of a close election, I believe they are CO, MI, MN, NM, NV, OH, PA and WI. That means the Romney starts ahead by about 258 to 186. Romney can get over the top by winning MI, OH, PA or any two of the other thought if he only gets NM and NV it is thrown into the House where Romney would win based on the GOP majority in 32 delegations.
I feel very good about the election. N. Carolina, Indiana and Virginia are ours.
He is also polling very well in Ohio and Florida, and as most undecideds break for the challenger that right there would put us int he position that if we add one more flip like New Hampshire that is the game.
That doesn’t even count how good things are looking in Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.
play around with this interactive electoral vote map and tell me if you still think that Romney will be winning by a landslide or even at all. I don’t see it happening. This has been my prediction for over a year incidentaly.
Mittens is toast. He needs a majority of Democrats to vote for him. Not gonna happen.
270? Go west...
Like pick Lindsey Graham for a running mate...
There is still enough time and stupidity for the 'pubbies to blow it.
He doesn't have any fans in the oil patch--at least none who'd admit it... Nor in the Natural Gas and Coal industries, which bleeds over into electrical power generation, etc.
He has done his best to make enemies in the Energy sector, and I really don't think he understands how many jobs outside the energy industry that sector supports. Not to mention the promise of higher rates and prices...
Even economic strangulation to the point where gasoline prices drop won't hide higher heating and air conditioning bills...
I have to agree Mittens is toast. WI? Last polling I saw was Obama +8. VA ? Again doubtful, polling +6. NC is a flip of coin. To think amdt 1 is defining is stupid and ignores facts. African Americans will not desert Obama and they voted 2 to 1 on a low turnout primary. NV? Could not even beat Harry. Hispanics kill us there. OH and FL toss up for now. Romney is an incredible boob and can’t brush off simple attacks. You can hate Obama but underestimate his political savy at your peril.
We had a chance to beat a weak sitting president and what happened? We run Romney who in case anyone forgot lost to McCain. He is a lousy campaigner and has no stance on anything. Ground game? Hell Dems will chew him up. IMO
I saw Romney bumper stickers (on different cars, even) on consecutive days during my commute to work here in SE VA. I was gobsmacked, too.
Romney pretty much sucks as a GOP candidate. However he's going to be better than McCain was four years ago and this time around, you are not going to have a whole lot of people starry-eyed for Obama. Yes, Obama will get his core of America-hating socialists but we wouldn't get those votes if we nominated Reagan II.
I forecast a GOP landslide this November that will make 2010 look like a warmup. I'm not excited about the presidential race but the senate and congressional races (as well as the state contests) will give us here on Free Republic much reason for cheer. And a conservative Congress will keep Romney right of center. It will be a different Romney than you saw in Massachusetts when he had a 90%+ Democratic/Socialist state house to govern with.
Romney is a Democrat, and will not win.
Romney CANNOT win. The MSM has gops of materials
just waiting— beginning with Romney’s attacks
Bully Romney. BULLY ROMNEY the BACKSTABBER.
Ever feel like you’ve followed a white rabbit down a hole?
Concur with you guys.
The primary results in NC, WV, IN, and WI all point to good things happening in November.
Squat That Rabbit - Taj Mahal
Reagan lost to Ford in '76. Just sayin'.
I don't see a landslide either. I see a nail-biter. Give Romney OH, FL, VA, and NC + one smaller state, CO or NH perhaps and he barely squeaks past 270. I worry about Virginia. Virgil Goode, who won't break a fraction of one percent anywhere else could potentially spoil Virginia for Romney. Goode has name recognition in his home state where he served as a former congressman. He could conceivably pick up 5% in Virginia. This would be devastating to Romney's chances here. Lose Virginia and he's lost the election.
Don't get too excited, the "One" is not leftist enough for these people. Yes they are communists and they thought by now we would be in socialist utopia, They are disillusioned.
I’m not convinced that he’ll carry Ohio either (and I live in Ohio). He may carry it but, like you said, he needs a lot more than Ohio to reach 270. He has proven to be quite the fighter though and there’s an awful lot of time between now and then so maybe he’ll manage it. I’ll be curious to see how he responds to this hair cutting nonsense. They’re trying to get him on the defense. he needs to get out of the corner and start beating on Obama like he was Newt Gingrich.
That'll be old news in a week. Even the family of the alleged victim (who died in 2004) is denying it happened. That the media has resorted to digging up dirt from Romney's high school years shows that they're pretty desperate right now. At any rate, those who are most outraged by this story had no intention of voting for Romney to begin with.
He's already apologized to anyone he might have bullied as a teenager. If he's smart, he won't make another comment regarding this incident.
So how does that tool justify your defeatism?
Compared to whom? All the people he just beat?
Welcome to the new Free Republic.
If Gen. George S. Patton was here he'd wear his arm out slapping all of the hysterical, blubbering faces around this place.
He handled it perfectly and the story has already unraveled. All in under 24 hrs.
Did you read my post? I specified specific states. If you think I am wrong, tell me where.
Which state Bush won in either 2000 or 2004 should I have in the tossup column that I don’t or which state Bush won in either 2000 or 2004 should I have in the lean Obama column which I don’t?
I agree with you regarding how OH will be the key to winning the presidency in 2012. If Romney carries it, Obama would have to run the table in NH, IA, CO, NV, NM, WI, MN, PA and MI to get reelected (which won’t happen). And if Obama carries OH, then Romney wouldn’t stand a chance in other blue-collar Great Lakes states such as PA, MI, WI and MN (which are less Republican than OH) and would have to win 4 out of 5 of NH, IA, CO, NV, NM (with one of them being CO, unless Romney also wins the ME-02, in which case he could win with NH, IA, NV and NM).
This is one of the reasons why I think that Romney would be foolish not to select Senator Rob Portman of OH as his runningmate. Portman will help him carry OH and would also help him attract blue-collar voters and motivate Evangelical voters in other key states (Portman is a socially conservative Methodist, and is an expert at communicating with working-class voters due to his work experience and political campaigns).
Romney-Portman could garner 350 electoral votes if the election breaks further away from Obama (which is a real possibility). But, more importantly, Romney-Portman can get 270 electoral votes even if it doesn’t.
However, I recall reading somewhere yesterday that Rob Portman does not move the needle at all as a vice presidential choice in Ohio. If he cannot help carry the state the choice would have to move elsewhere. I am sure Romney's internals will tell him the answer to this on a precinct by precinct basis. Likewise I think his polling will do the same respecting Santorum's ability to carry Pennsylvania.
My choices are: 1 Rubio 2 Paul Ryan 3 Portman 4 Santorum-and these selections are made without reference to my ideological preferences which would become far more relevant to this process as and when Romney has a comfortable lead above 50% and would certainly change if numbers showed Romney in trouble in Virginia, for example.
I agree it may boil down to Ohio in the end. The pattern over the last couple of decades is whoever wins Ohio wins the Presidency, so it's hard to imagine Obama or Romney winning in the rest of the country without taking Ohio.
Portman is an acceptable running mate and I agree from a geographic standpoint it's a good choice, the only issue I have with a Romney-Portman ticket is that it's bland as hell. Take away his Mormonism and Romney's life story is not that interesting, and Portman may ease conservative's concerns but in the end, he's boring and won't take the luster off Obama's "historic" Presidency. The media will paint the GOP ticket as two old guard establishment WASPs, even though Romney is a Mormon (just as claimed the traditional Catholic Rick Santorum was the "evangelical" candidate)
The other issue is Portman is brand new to the Senate, a freshman Senator with less than 2 years under his belt (and this is his first time holding statewide office), so I'm not sure his pull in the state is strong enough to ensure his candidacy would move the state in the GOP column. Barack Obama is going to run a much more aggressive campaign than Lee Fisher did. It's a good idea to pick a running mate from a "must win" swing state, but I'd prefer one who a powerhouse figure in the state and beloved among voters.
What you read was a Quinnipiac registered-voter poll of OH that showed Obama carrying the state even if Portman was Romney’s runningmate. I think that Portman’s influence in carrying OH would become apparent as he campaigned around the state (it wouldn’t be an automatic thing), and, in any event, if Romney can’t carry OH with Portman, he sure as hell won’t with Rubio, and writing off OH is absolutely out of the question if Romney wants to reach 270.
I like Rubio, Ryan and Santorum, and with a different presidential candidate, I would perhaps prefer them as the VP nominee (heck, I backed Santorum for president from before Iowa until he dropped out). But I think that Romney needs to pick a Protestant (Rubio, Ryan and Santorum are Catholic), and he really needs to win OH, so I think it’s got to be Portman.
No, no, no on Rubio. I love the guy but we need every CONSERVATIVE we can get in the senate. Ryan, better, but do you really want to consign such a talented guy to a meaningless office? Go with Jan Brewer-—popular, not really that conservative (replace her as gov with someone who is), and a woman.
As long as they vote against him, I don’t care if they’re outhouse rat crazy.
Unfortunately they wont.
Well I see the MSM has already gone after Romney’s high school days. What’s next? Spitball fights from third grade?