Pennsylvania moves to ‘toss-up’ in our new 2016 ratings! (From "Leans Democrat")

The Washington Post's The Fix ^ | October 3, 2016 | Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake

[2ndDivisionVet]

With the 2016 presidential election now just 36 days away, we'll be updating our Fix electoral map every Monday from here on out as things change. The big change this week is that Pennsylvania, long the holy grail for Donald Trump's chances of expanding the playing field and potentially getting 270 electoral votes in his race against Hillary Clinton, is moving back to the toss-up category in our rankings.

Why? Because poll after poll after poll — including one released by Quinnipiac University on Monday — suggest that in a four-way race that includes Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton holds a very narrow lead over Trump. It's a lead more consistent with the other states that we rate toss-ups than the states we rate lean Democratic, which is where we've had Pennsylvania for some time now.

Moving Pennsylvania certainly helps Trump as its 20 electoral votes — if he can win them — give him some wiggle room in his still-narrow path to 270. But the question now is whether Trump's disastrously bad last seven days — beginning with the first presidential debate and ending today with a brutal AP story about his conduct toward women on the set of "The Apprentice" — will erase the gains he has made in Pennsylvania in recent weeks. (That same question goes for Colorado, Ohio and Florida, too.)

But, as of today, Pennsylvania looks like a toss-up. And that's very good news for Trump....

[jazminerose]

PA doesn’t seem so far fetched to me. Coal miners and blue collar workers are not friends of Hillary’s.

Trump is looking good in Ohio, if he gets Ohio and PA—victory is ours. And by “ours”, I mean America’s.

[Voluntaryist]

That percentage gap sounds like a lot, but Obama only beat Romney in PA by 310k votes.

[nathanbedford]

These results must be fit into the jigsaw puzzle of the national electoral college map. Context is everything.

Going into the debates Trump was leading in various polls in states like Colorado, Florida and North Carolina. Now he is behind. If Trump does not take Florida, he has virtually no chance of being president of the United States. If Trump does take Florida and fails in North Carolina he has little chance of being president of the United States.

The jigsaw puzzle tells us that any Republican faces a daunting uphill battle to get to 270 electoral votes and he is by the force of geography put into a place where he must virtually run the table of the battleground states to get to 270. Going into the debates, Trump was enjoying the momentum which might well have given him not only the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Nevada (Ohio and Arizona having been put away) but in some polls he was winning in places like Colorado to give him insurance in case of mishap in running the board. He looked to be closing in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Virginia.

After Trump's lamentable, petulant performance in the debate, coupled with his inexplicable Twitter rant, all of that has been squandered and the electoral college map is grim indeed.

It was all wholly unnecessary because Trump's sole assignment in the debate was to look and act presidential and put the lie to the narrative that he was temperamentally unfit for the office, that he was too scary to be in charge of the nuclear codes, and that he was an unpleasant bully. Instead, Trump actually confirmed the narrative before the astonished eyes of tens of millions of undecided voters. It is commonly accepted that the most damaging gaffe is that gaffe which confirms the narrative. This blunder was an unforced error and unnecessary because Trump needed only to show these undecided voters that they didn't have to vote for Hillary, that they could follow their inclination borne out of their decades long repugnance of Hillary as a liar and a crook and vote for Donald Trump, providing he was a safe alternative. All Trump had to do was present himself as a safe alternative, a reasonable man, a fellow possessed of the gravitas to be President of the United States. He did not have to win on every issue he only had to look presidential.

If his performance during the debate was not enough to confirm the narrative, within hours at three o'clock in the morning Trump climbed out of bed to get into the gutter and brawl on twitter with a whore. The media had a field day. Just as Ted Cruz had predicted, the media in October would tear at Trump for these kinds of peccadilloes.

His numbers tumbled. The Electoral College map turned ugly.

Now comes the New York Times revelations explaining why Trump has not released his income tax returns, because he is paid no taxes for years. So more damage is done as the media defames him as it defamed Mitt Romney as a wealthy hypocrite. The problem for Trump here is that Joe Sixpack will react emotionally, not legally, he will understand only that a billionaire has paid no taxes but Joe sixpack has. Just as Romney was skewered for his 47% remark, the media will relentlessly twist the skewer against Trump.

The game is not over, Trump can conceivably redeem himself among persuadable voters in the next two debates if he grows up, puts his ego in his pocket, and remembers that the election is not about him but about the future of 320 million people. I have previously suggested that he return between the debates to the practice of making serious speeches in a moderated tone of voice not to the crowd but to the camera. I recommend that he start with a hour and a half long, pedantic, yes even boring, Bill of Particulars indicting Hillary Clinton for her crimes, step-by-step from cattle futures through the decades to pay for play, giving examples, sources, and drawing parallels which convincingly show repeated patterns of venality. More than the content of the speech, the tone of Trump's delivery will make or break the effort. Trump has simply got to stop appearing to be an out-of-control rampaging ego and demonstrate that he could be a safe alternative to one of the most despicable and despised candidates in American history. The point is not to convince people that Hillary is loathsome, that is already a given, the point is to show Trump to be better than Hillary even as he exposes her.

One last word: it does not matter that some conservatives like Trump's brashness, it does not matter that his brashness won him the primary, it does not matter that his brashness plays well on Free Republic, what matters is the jigsaw puzzle.

[Impala64ssa]

Her Henious did brag about how she wants to put coal miners out of work. I’m sure that plays well in the mining regions of PA/s. I would love to be a fly on the wall of some UMW meeting hall in PA, OH, KY or WV when the union thugs tell the rank and file it’s in their best interest to vote for this bitch.

[OrangeHoof]

I can see no way Trump wins PA without also winning OH, so that becomes a two-fer. If he could take North Carolina dn Florida to go with it, it could be an early night.

[eekitsagreek]

Completely agree with you. Well said!

[mbrfl]

You`ve gotten about 0% right so far this election. Just sayin.

[Yossarian]

Agreed.

[Luircin]

Thanks for playing into the media circus.

We all knew from the beginning that after debate 1, the Hillary-media would play the comeback-kid narrative and start swinging polls towards Hillary. And they’re doing just that.

And here you are deciding to give it legitimacy.

Really, dude? Really?

[sargon]

If Trump does not take Florida, he has virtually no chance of being president of the United States.

That's true. But there's no chance that Trump doesn't take Florida, okay? Zero. None.

I'm a Floridian. Indeed, I live in the most Democratic county in the state (Broward), and I'm telling you that Donald Trump will win Florida easily.

Hillary Clinton is not leading in Florida, and the absentee ballot requests demonstrate unequivocally that Donald Trump is going to win Florida overwhelmingly.

Just ask any FReeper from Florida. See if you can find a single one that disagrees with my assertion.

One must be in virtual hysterics, and in willful disregard of the massive and persistengt enthusiasm gap, to entertain such a whimsical notion.

Florida and Ohio have both moved away from Hillary decisively.

Use your head, nb! If Hillary is having to defend PA, WI, MI, CO, NM, VA, etc., then who is really in trouble?

The enthusiasm gap is going to crush Hillary. Yes, plenty of people, when they answer the phone, can claim that they're voting for Hillary, but the reality is that large numbers of those people are not going to show up at the polls on November 8.

Hillary isn't creating any enthusiasm; indeed, she's sapping the life force out of Democratic voters like a level 80 zombie. Indeed, she's bleeding significant support from demographics that Democrats have typically depended on for electoral success.

I've been saying for months that Trump would make yuuuge inroads into traditionally reliable Democrat demographics, and this is now being borne out strongly, in places like the Black community.

The fact is, if Trump is anywhere close to Hillary in national polling, he's going to destroy her on November 8.

Hillary has one path to victory: massive voter fraud. Unfortunately, that's a pretty realistic path for her, I fear. But if that happens, then at least the mask will have come off, and we can get to work on the other kind of Revolution, as opposed to the one we're trying to accomplish at this moment.

Trump takes Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina by at least 5 points each.

So please move on to your alternate hand-wringing scenarios, because any of them that presume that Donald Trump loses Florida, Ohio, or NC are completely unrealistic.

The People know that Hillary is a crook, and that she doesn't belong with ten miles of the White House. Its not PC for them to declare support for Trump, so, by default, they say they support Hillary. But if you think that those same people are actually going to turn out and vote for this corrupt criminal, against the national and world trends that we've seen play out for the last several months, then you simply are not assessing reality objectively.

This is a change election. The momentum is all Trump's, and Hillary is only being propped up in the polls due to a massive Media propaganda campaign. On November 8, all of the Media and Establishment (but I repeat myself) illusions are going to be dispelled so forcefully, that it's obviously going to make even your head explode.

Turnout wins elections. Enthusiasm drives (or suppresses) turnout, and Trump voters are going to turnout in droves. Hillary's tepid supporters are going to stay home in droves.

Any and all FReepers from Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina who read this, what do you have to say about your states?

Somebody needs to get you a glass of water, nb, because you're wasting incredible amounts of energy in an abstract exercise which has no tangible basis in reality. In short, you're allowing the Media spin to influence you, just like you did during the primary cycle.

There are two debates remaining, and by your own opinions and criteria, it will be virtually impossible for Trump to do anything but improve his performance. Right?

You just can't seem to get past the reservations you've had regarding Trump ever since the primaries, when Donald Trump dismissed Ted Cruz. You called him a charlatan then, and deep in your heart, you still believe that to be the case. And that warped perception is what's informing all of your prognostication.

Because of your prejudice, you continue to completely miss out (and consequently dismiss) this massive, bona fide movement that Trump is leading.

You're acting as if the nation is going to be frozen in time at the moment the first debate ended, and all or your subsequent analysis flows from that flawed presumption.

The only thing that can stop Trump is 1) Trump himself, 2) massive voter fraud, or 3) the cumulative effect of the GOPe's shameful behavior. The GOPe's treachery is not based on Trump's "meanness", "boorishness", or anything like that. On the contrary, it's based on the fact that they're a bunch of non-conservative globalist scumbags who see him as a threat to their continued enjoyment of holding power over the People.

I hope and pray that Donald Trump will be able to win the election despite the lukewarm support exhibited by you and your ilk, but I can't shake the notion that, in your heart, you still have no respect for the man, and that shines through in all of your gloomy analysis. Yes, gloomy, not cogent analysis. You were wrong during the primaries and you're wrong now.

It's nothing personal. I hope you wake up. But I doubt it.

Maybe you'll finally and fully embrace the movement on the night of November 8 when Trump shocks the world and wins this thing, presuming Hillary's voter fraud doesn't spoil everything.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

[tcrlaf]

As Nate Silver himself said lasy week:

There is no possible statistical way that Hillary can be losing Colorado, Ohio, and barely be up in Pa, that has her leading nationally.

[nathanbedford]

Let me see if I have this straight, it's my fault that Donald Trump is cascading in the polls and it has nothing to do with his debate performance or his tweets, no, it is all the fault of the messenger.

Really, dude? Really?

[lewislynn]

Donald Trump is cascading in the polls and it has nothing to do with his debate performance or his tweets, no, it is all the fault of the messenger.

And you never Trump/ pro-Hillary phonies couldn't be happier...If it was true.

[Luircin]

You’re the one who is parroting the media talking points, who is believing the media polls even though we knew what they’d be no matter WHAT the performance was.

Yes, I get that you’re still angry from the primary, but I would think that a conservative would know better than to trust the media’s propaganda.

[nathanbedford]

I'm a Floridian. Indeed, I live in the most Democratic county in the state (Broward), and I'm telling you that Donald Trump will win Florida easily.

I was a Floridian until very recently having wintered there for years and having owned a house in, yes, Broward County. Now I'm in the same position you are and I have equal credentials to opine so I can say, "I'm telling you this Donald Trump will lose Florida easily." Now, you can make all the assurances and all the guarantees which amount to nothing unless you're willing to put up some money which I can collect after the election if you're wrong otherwise you just spouting off. I guarantee it.

The trend in the polls is chillingly clear, you can ignore it at our peril. As to enthusiasm, the Democrats know far better than Republicans how to get out the vote and they certainly know better than the unprepared, understaffed, under financed, Johnny-come-lately Trump ground game. Ground game is what the Democrats are good at and what Republicans are bad at.

I think you should admit to the readers that you have evidence that the sentiments expressed in my first reply about the role for Trump to play in the debate, that is that he must look presidential rather than win on the issues, is a view I expressed on these threads before the debate. Before the debate I spoke of his momentum which would lead him to win this election. This current reply is not a cheap shot that comes later. I think it is unfair for you to impute some sort of devious motive on my part to see Trump lose. That is false and you have no evidence to allege it. Indeed, my post before the debate outlining his advantages going in due to momentum in the electoral college and his need only to appear presidential, show a real concern that a winning strategy be adopted.

I want Trump to win and I'm offering every positive suggestion and, yes, good-faith criticism to get him into the Oval Office. You can believe my sincerity if for no other reason then you must acknowledge that I would move heaven and earth to keep Hillary out of that Oval Office.

This is not a problem which you can put off on the messenger anymore than you can successfully blame the pollsters. Nor is it a problem that you can guarantee away.

There is at least one thing that we agree upon:

The only thing that can stop Trump is 1) Trump himself,

I think that was my point.

[nathanbedford]

It ain't the messenger, it ain't the pollster, it's the tweeter.

[Luircin]

You cited media polls as proof for your rambling blathering.

I’m calling the media polls outright propaganda, and YOU a fool for believing them.

[faithhopecharity]

Trump will win PA and by a respectably solid margin too if he has the ground staff needed to prevent the infamous Philadelphia voter fraud problem from recurring.

[p. henry]

I like your idea, but if I were Trump, I might use the debate format to attack Hillary with a bill of particulars as you suggest. He would have a much larger audience, and she would have to lose that irritating smile or its falsity would become even more apparent. Pretty much any question can be turned against her. Any question on foreign policy could be turned onto the disaster that is Libya, Syria and the Russian reset. A “woman’s issue?” Her disgraceful treatment of Paula, Jennifer, Kathleen, and Monica. Trump’s taxes? I’m pretty sure the Clintons must have some interesting deductions or capital losses on their returns. Tax policy? Increased rates hurt the middle class not rich folks like the Clintons, who can afford fancy lawyers and accountants. National defense? She was the one who put the nation at risk by putting its secrets on an unsecured server and then obstructed justice by having her underlings bleachbit it. Income inequality? She’s the one who made speeches to Goldman Sachs at a quarter million a pop, which speeches she now will not release. It would not be difficult,

[nathanbedford]

I’m calling the media polls outright propaganda, and YOU a fool for believing them.

Well, even though they are nationally recognized, scientifically based and time proven methods of determining voter sentiment, since you have called media polls outright propaganda I am much relieved and we can all dismiss them out of hand. Thank God, I feel so much better now.