If Trump does not take Florida, he has virtually no chance of being president of the United States.That's true. But there's no chance that Trump doesn't take Florida, okay? Zero. None.
I'm a Floridian. Indeed, I live in the most Democratic county in the state (Broward), and I'm telling you that Donald Trump will win Florida easily.
Hillary Clinton is not leading in Florida, and the absentee ballot requests demonstrate unequivocally that Donald Trump is going to win Florida overwhelmingly.
Just ask any FReeper from Florida. See if you can find a single one that disagrees with my assertion.
One must be in virtual hysterics, and in willful disregard of the massive and persistengt enthusiasm gap, to entertain such a whimsical notion.
Florida and Ohio have both moved away from Hillary decisively.
Use your head, nb! If Hillary is having to defend PA, WI, MI, CO, NM, VA, etc., then who is really in trouble?
The enthusiasm gap is going to crush Hillary. Yes, plenty of people, when they answer the phone, can claim that they're voting for Hillary, but the reality is that large numbers of those people are not going to show up at the polls on November 8.
Hillary isn't creating any enthusiasm; indeed, she's sapping the life force out of Democratic voters like a level 80 zombie. Indeed, she's bleeding significant support from demographics that Democrats have typically depended on for electoral success.
I've been saying for months that Trump would make yuuuge inroads into traditionally reliable Democrat demographics, and this is now being borne out strongly, in places like the Black community.
The fact is, if Trump is anywhere close to Hillary in national polling, he's going to destroy her on November 8.
Hillary has one path to victory: massive voter fraud. Unfortunately, that's a pretty realistic path for her, I fear. But if that happens, then at least the mask will have come off, and we can get to work on the other kind of Revolution, as opposed to the one we're trying to accomplish at this moment.
Trump takes Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina by at least 5 points each.
So please move on to your alternate hand-wringing scenarios, because any of them that presume that Donald Trump loses Florida, Ohio, or NC are completely unrealistic.
The People know that Hillary is a crook, and that she doesn't belong with ten miles of the White House. Its not PC for them to declare support for Trump, so, by default, they say they support Hillary. But if you think that those same people are actually going to turn out and vote for this corrupt criminal, against the national and world trends that we've seen play out for the last several months, then you simply are not assessing reality objectively.
This is a change election. The momentum is all Trump's, and Hillary is only being propped up in the polls due to a massive Media propaganda campaign. On November 8, all of the Media and Establishment (but I repeat myself) illusions are going to be dispelled so forcefully, that it's obviously going to make even your head explode.
Turnout wins elections. Enthusiasm drives (or suppresses) turnout, and Trump voters are going to turnout in droves. Hillary's tepid supporters are going to stay home in droves.
Any and all FReepers from Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina who read this, what do you have to say about your states?
Somebody needs to get you a glass of water, nb, because you're wasting incredible amounts of energy in an abstract exercise which has no tangible basis in reality. In short, you're allowing the Media spin to influence you, just like you did during the primary cycle.
There are two debates remaining, and by your own opinions and criteria, it will be virtually impossible for Trump to do anything but improve his performance. Right?
You just can't seem to get past the reservations you've had regarding Trump ever since the primaries, when Donald Trump dismissed Ted Cruz. You called him a charlatan then, and deep in your heart, you still believe that to be the case. And that warped perception is what's informing all of your prognostication.
Because of your prejudice, you continue to completely miss out (and consequently dismiss) this massive, bona fide movement that Trump is leading.
You're acting as if the nation is going to be frozen in time at the moment the first debate ended, and all or your subsequent analysis flows from that flawed presumption.
The only thing that can stop Trump is 1) Trump himself, 2) massive voter fraud, or 3) the cumulative effect of the GOPe's shameful behavior. The GOPe's treachery is not based on Trump's "meanness", "boorishness", or anything like that. On the contrary, it's based on the fact that they're a bunch of non-conservative globalist scumbags who see him as a threat to their continued enjoyment of holding power over the People.
I hope and pray that Donald Trump will be able to win the election despite the lukewarm support exhibited by you and your ilk, but I can't shake the notion that, in your heart, you still have no respect for the man, and that shines through in all of your gloomy analysis. Yes, gloomy, not cogent analysis. You were wrong during the primaries and you're wrong now.
It's nothing personal. I hope you wake up. But I doubt it.
Maybe you'll finally and fully embrace the movement on the night of November 8 when Trump shocks the world and wins this thing, presuming Hillary's voter fraud doesn't spoil everything.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
I'm a Floridian. Indeed, I live in the most Democratic county in the state (Broward), and I'm telling you that Donald Trump will win Florida easily. I was a Floridian until very recently having wintered there for years and having owned a house in, yes, Broward County. Now I'm in the same position you are and I have equal credentials to opine so I can say, "I'm telling you this Donald Trump will lose Florida easily." Now, you can make all the assurances and all the guarantees which amount to nothing unless you're willing to put up some money which I can collect after the election if you're wrong otherwise you just spouting off. I guarantee it.
The trend in the polls is chillingly clear, you can ignore it at our peril. As to enthusiasm, the Democrats know far better than Republicans how to get out the vote and they certainly know better than the unprepared, understaffed, under financed, Johnny-come-lately Trump ground game. Ground game is what the Democrats are good at and what Republicans are bad at.
I think you should admit to the readers that you have evidence that the sentiments expressed in my first reply about the role for Trump to play in the debate, that is that he must look presidential rather than win on the issues, is a view I expressed on these threads before the debate. Before the debate I spoke of his momentum which would lead him to win this election. This current reply is not a cheap shot that comes later. I think it is unfair for you to impute some sort of devious motive on my part to see Trump lose. That is false and you have no evidence to allege it. Indeed, my post before the debate outlining his advantages going in due to momentum in the electoral college and his need only to appear presidential, show a real concern that a winning strategy be adopted.
I want Trump to win and I'm offering every positive suggestion and, yes, good-faith criticism to get him into the Oval Office. You can believe my sincerity if for no other reason then you must acknowledge that I would move heaven and earth to keep Hillary out of that Oval Office.
This is not a problem which you can put off on the messenger anymore than you can successfully blame the pollsters. Nor is it a problem that you can guarantee away.
There is at least one thing that we agree upon:
The only thing that can stop Trump is 1) Trump himself,
I think that was my point.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/
Nate Silver made his name in 2008 when he correctly predicted Obama’s win. He also correctly predicted Obama’s win in in 2012. He was way off in 2014. Why? Because the polls were skewed toward the Dems. From the article: “Based on results as reported through early Wednesday morning — I’ll detail our method for calculating this in a moment — the average Senate poll conducted in the final three weeks of this year’s campaign overestimated the Democrat’s performance by 4 percentage points. The average gubernatorial poll was nearly as bad, overestimating the Democrat’s performance by 3.4 points.”
I know a lot of people have a form of PTSD after being so sure that the polls showing Romney losing were skewed in 2012, but blindly accepting that the polls are accurate today is no better than blindly rejecting them in 2012.
Most election polling in recent times shows a Dem bias. Sometimes that bias is slight and sometimes it’s large, but it is usually there. After all, a pollster’s results are no better than his assumptions, and almost all pollsters are currently making assumptions that I believe are false. They are using a 2008/2012 turnout model which assumes that blacks and youth are going to turn out for Hillary in the same numbers they turned out for Obama. They are also assuming that women voters will vote for Hillary in the same kinds of numbers that black voters voted for Obama.
I think both of these assumptions are wrong. There was an article yesterday (I can’t find it or I would post it) that discussed polling that shows the youth vote is not energized for Hillary, and I have seen no indication that the black vote is either. My gut tells me that there will be a “vagina vote,” but it will be much smaller than projected—most women vote pocketbook issues and the security of their families, not by the gender of the candidate.
I’m a Floridian, and Trump will win here, handily. I wasn’t freeping in 2008 or 2012, but I correctly predicted Obama’s wins here, and I’ve correctly predicted all senatorial and gubernatorial races in this state for decades. If you want to know what is really going on in Florida politics, watch Senator Bill Nelson. He’s an idiot, but he’s a politically astute idiot, not to mention a first-rate political whore, and he will always show who’s winning and losing the DNC’s internal polling in Florida. He staunchly supported Hillary in 2008. She won the Florida primary by a mile. He all but humped Obama’s leg in 2012 (Nelson was up for reelection) fundraising and introducing him all over the state, gushing over him, etc. This year he came out strong for Hillary in the primary (she won.) His support since then, however, has been markedly tepid. He’s introduced her a couple of times at rallies, but his remarks to the press have been lukewarm at best, even though he’s officially one of her key people in Florida. He’s even talked about her “high negatives.” On the Senate side, he’s defended Rubio against the Dem challenger, Murphy. Nelson’s actions tell me two things—the DNC’s internal polling has Trump and Rubio winning Florida.