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These results must be fit into the jigsaw puzzle of the national electoral college map. Context is everything.

Going into the debates Trump was leading in various polls in states like Colorado, Florida and North Carolina. Now he is behind. If Trump does not take Florida, he has virtually no chance of being president of the United States. If Trump does take Florida and fails in North Carolina he has little chance of being president of the United States.

The jigsaw puzzle tells us that any Republican faces a daunting uphill battle to get to 270 electoral votes and he is by the force of geography put into a place where he must virtually run the table of the battleground states to get to 270. Going into the debates, Trump was enjoying the momentum which might well have given him not only the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Nevada (Ohio and Arizona having been put away) but in some polls he was winning in places like Colorado to give him insurance in case of mishap in running the board. He looked to be closing in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Virginia.

After Trump's lamentable, petulant performance in the debate, coupled with his inexplicable Twitter rant, all of that has been squandered and the electoral college map is grim indeed.

It was all wholly unnecessary because Trump's sole assignment in the debate was to look and act presidential and put the lie to the narrative that he was temperamentally unfit for the office, that he was too scary to be in charge of the nuclear codes, and that he was an unpleasant bully. Instead, Trump actually confirmed the narrative before the astonished eyes of tens of millions of undecided voters. It is commonly accepted that the most damaging gaffe is that gaffe which confirms the narrative. This blunder was an unforced error and unnecessary because Trump needed only to show these undecided voters that they didn't have to vote for Hillary, that they could follow their inclination borne out of their decades long repugnance of Hillary as a liar and a crook and vote for Donald Trump, providing he was a safe alternative. All Trump had to do was present himself as a safe alternative, a reasonable man, a fellow possessed of the gravitas to be President of the United States. He did not have to win on every issue he only had to look presidential.

If his performance during the debate was not enough to confirm the narrative, within hours at three o'clock in the morning Trump climbed out of bed to get into the gutter and brawl on twitter with a whore. The media had a field day. Just as Ted Cruz had predicted, the media in October would tear at Trump for these kinds of peccadilloes.

His numbers tumbled. The Electoral College map turned ugly.

Now comes the New York Times revelations explaining why Trump has not released his income tax returns, because he is paid no taxes for years. So more damage is done as the media defames him as it defamed Mitt Romney as a wealthy hypocrite. The problem for Trump here is that Joe Sixpack will react emotionally, not legally, he will understand only that a billionaire has paid no taxes but Joe sixpack has. Just as Romney was skewered for his 47% remark, the media will relentlessly twist the skewer against Trump.

The game is not over, Trump can conceivably redeem himself among persuadable voters in the next two debates if he grows up, puts his ego in his pocket, and remembers that the election is not about him but about the future of 320 million people. I have previously suggested that he return between the debates to the practice of making serious speeches in a moderated tone of voice not to the crowd but to the camera. I recommend that he start with a hour and a half long, pedantic, yes even boring, Bill of Particulars indicting Hillary Clinton for her crimes, step-by-step from cattle futures through the decades to pay for play, giving examples, sources, and drawing parallels which convincingly show repeated patterns of venality. More than the content of the speech, the tone of Trump's delivery will make or break the effort. Trump has simply got to stop appearing to be an out-of-control rampaging ego and demonstrate that he could be a safe alternative to one of the most despicable and despised candidates in American history. The point is not to convince people that Hillary is loathsome, that is already a given, the point is to show Trump to be better than Hillary even as he exposes her.

One last word: it does not matter that some conservatives like Trump's brashness, it does not matter that his brashness won him the primary, it does not matter that his brashness plays well on Free Republic, what matters is the jigsaw puzzle.

Completely agree with you. Well said!

You`ve gotten about 0% right so far this election. Just sayin.

Agreed.

Thanks for playing into the media circus.

We all knew from the beginning that after debate 1, the Hillary-media would play the comeback-kid narrative and start swinging polls towards Hillary. And they’re doing just that.

And here you are deciding to give it legitimacy.

Really, dude? Really?

If Trump does not take Florida, he has virtually no chance of being president of the United States.

That's true. But there's no chance that Trump doesn't take Florida, okay? Zero. None.

I'm a Floridian. Indeed, I live in the most Democratic county in the state (Broward), and I'm telling you that Donald Trump will win Florida easily.

Hillary Clinton is not leading in Florida, and the absentee ballot requests demonstrate unequivocally that Donald Trump is going to win Florida overwhelmingly.

Just ask any FReeper from Florida. See if you can find a single one that disagrees with my assertion.

One must be in virtual hysterics, and in willful disregard of the massive and persistengt enthusiasm gap, to entertain such a whimsical notion.

Florida and Ohio have both moved away from Hillary decisively.

Use your head, nb! If Hillary is having to defend PA, WI, MI, CO, NM, VA, etc., then who is really in trouble?

The enthusiasm gap is going to crush Hillary. Yes, plenty of people, when they answer the phone, can claim that they're voting for Hillary, but the reality is that large numbers of those people are not going to show up at the polls on November 8.

Hillary isn't creating any enthusiasm; indeed, she's sapping the life force out of Democratic voters like a level 80 zombie. Indeed, she's bleeding significant support from demographics that Democrats have typically depended on for electoral success.

I've been saying for months that Trump would make yuuuge inroads into traditionally reliable Democrat demographics, and this is now being borne out strongly, in places like the Black community.

The fact is, if Trump is anywhere close to Hillary in national polling, he's going to destroy her on November 8.

Hillary has one path to victory: massive voter fraud. Unfortunately, that's a pretty realistic path for her, I fear. But if that happens, then at least the mask will have come off, and we can get to work on the other kind of Revolution, as opposed to the one we're trying to accomplish at this moment.

Trump takes Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina by at least 5 points each.

So please move on to your alternate hand-wringing scenarios, because any of them that presume that Donald Trump loses Florida, Ohio, or NC are completely unrealistic.

The People know that Hillary is a crook, and that she doesn't belong with ten miles of the White House. Its not PC for them to declare support for Trump, so, by default, they say they support Hillary. But if you think that those same people are actually going to turn out and vote for this corrupt criminal, against the national and world trends that we've seen play out for the last several months, then you simply are not assessing reality objectively.

This is a change election. The momentum is all Trump's, and Hillary is only being propped up in the polls due to a massive Media propaganda campaign. On November 8, all of the Media and Establishment (but I repeat myself) illusions are going to be dispelled so forcefully, that it's obviously going to make even your head explode.

Turnout wins elections. Enthusiasm drives (or suppresses) turnout, and Trump voters are going to turnout in droves. Hillary's tepid supporters are going to stay home in droves.

Any and all FReepers from Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina who read this, what do you have to say about your states?

Somebody needs to get you a glass of water, nb, because you're wasting incredible amounts of energy in an abstract exercise which has no tangible basis in reality. In short, you're allowing the Media spin to influence you, just like you did during the primary cycle.

There are two debates remaining, and by your own opinions and criteria, it will be virtually impossible for Trump to do anything but improve his performance. Right?

You just can't seem to get past the reservations you've had regarding Trump ever since the primaries, when Donald Trump dismissed Ted Cruz. You called him a charlatan then, and deep in your heart, you still believe that to be the case. And that warped perception is what's informing all of your prognostication.

Because of your prejudice, you continue to completely miss out (and consequently dismiss) this massive, bona fide movement that Trump is leading.

You're acting as if the nation is going to be frozen in time at the moment the first debate ended, and all or your subsequent analysis flows from that flawed presumption.

The only thing that can stop Trump is 1) Trump himself, 2) massive voter fraud, or 3) the cumulative effect of the GOPe's shameful behavior. The GOPe's treachery is not based on Trump's "meanness", "boorishness", or anything like that. On the contrary, it's based on the fact that they're a bunch of non-conservative globalist scumbags who see him as a threat to their continued enjoyment of holding power over the People.

I hope and pray that Donald Trump will be able to win the election despite the lukewarm support exhibited by you and your ilk, but I can't shake the notion that, in your heart, you still have no respect for the man, and that shines through in all of your gloomy analysis. Yes, gloomy, not cogent analysis. You were wrong during the primaries and you're wrong now.

It's nothing personal. I hope you wake up. But I doubt it.

Maybe you'll finally and fully embrace the movement on the night of November 8 when Trump shocks the world and wins this thing, presuming Hillary's voter fraud doesn't spoil everything.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

I like your idea, but if I were Trump, I might use the debate format to attack Hillary with a bill of particulars as you suggest. He would have a much larger audience, and she would have to lose that irritating smile or its falsity would become even more apparent. Pretty much any question can be turned against her. Any question on foreign policy could be turned onto the disaster that is Libya, Syria and the Russian reset. A “woman’s issue?” Her disgraceful treatment of Paula, Jennifer, Kathleen, and Monica. Trump’s taxes? I’m pretty sure the Clintons must have some interesting deductions or capital losses on their returns. Tax policy? Increased rates hurt the middle class not rich folks like the Clintons, who can afford fancy lawyers and accountants. National defense? She was the one who put the nation at risk by putting its secrets on an unsecured server and then obstructed justice by having her underlings bleachbit it. Income inequality? She’s the one who made speeches to Goldman Sachs at a quarter million a pop, which speeches she now will not release. It would not be difficult,

Sage advice. I am afraid it will fall on deaf ears. Prior to the debate, even NJ was in play. I didn’t think he woukd win, but polls showed he was within 6 and anecdotal info on the ground showed it was real. After the debate, it was like someone popped a balloon. It was cringe inducing. I will not take a back seat to anyone in my opposition to Hillary, but he blew it.

+2.

I actually thought more along your lines—until I watched the debate. I can’t help but notice the reason people respond to certain things often has nothing to do with reason and facts or what most people might think is the key factor at play. I think the only way that Hillary (who was horrible on several fronts that I won’t bother going into) won was because she took control of the debate and made herself appear to be the one who was strong and dominant. This is also how Trump “won” the primary debates (and he did) even when his actual answers were poor.

The country is coming apart at the seems with riots, terrorism, growing divisions; whether they know it or not, most Americans want someone they can feel will be a strong leader who will hold the country together by force of will if need be and who will crush our enemies. Trump used to project that strength and dominance, and it helped take him much further than many thought he could go (how many of his supporters have I heard preface their comments with, “I don’t agree with such and such policies of his, but…” somehow there was still an excuse to vote for him). During the debate, it was Hillary who appeared as the dominant leader always on offense, however, and that hurt Trump badly by taking away his most visceral appeal.

I think it could potentially be disastrous for Trump if he gets up there and acts very “presidential” and pleasantly sticks to the issues, if Hillary comes after him again like she did in the first debate with even more fodder at her disposal. She will eat him alive in that case. That is a good prescription on how to lose with dignity like Mitt Romney. He was considerably calmer for the most part during this debate than in some of the primary ones where he was literally screaming at his opponents at length. He was also easily more detailed and focused on policy than in any of his previous debates. If you didn’t notice that, it’s because it doesn’t matter once someone is perceived to have beaten him in a fight. I don’t know for sure, of course, but I think he needs to get back his old winning drive and aggression (but without the defensiveness of the last debate) and crush Hillary next time. All the ones who won’t vote for him if he isn’t nice to a woman, already won’t vote for him. He needs to get back those who are afraid and want a strong leader who will always fight on their behalf. I may be way off base and I’m still unsure about it all, but I shudder at the idea of all the advice he’s getting online, in person, and on TV to essentially pull a Romney, McCain, Bush, Cruz, Kasich, etc.

Just a couple more things. He gave a teleprompter speech detailing Hillary’s crimes and failings very much like you described a couple of months ago. It made such a huge impact that you apparently didn’t even hear about it. And he’s already given around two dozen teleprompter policy speeches in a very “moderated tone of voice” too. I can’t help but suppect you’re kidding yourself if you think yet another poorly covered, fairly boring speech like that will help Trump move the dial even half a percentage point (although it could hurt). He’s already shown he can do that many times. I don’t know what showing he can read a teleprompter calmly yet again will show this time around, and he eviscerates Hillary in each of his rally speeches already.

Lastly, a grand total of three tweets in a short period of time is hardly a “twitter rant”; you are merely repeating the Dem talking points on that. If the situation were reversed and Trump were promoting a woman with Machado’s past like Hillary did, it would be a two-week scandal in the media; instead it’s a scandal that he criticized a woman who refused to deny to Anderson Cooper on camera that she was the get-away driver at a murder! Sure, he should have skipped any discussion of Machado, but only because the “press” has gotten to dangerous levels of manipulation and 2+2=5 type thinking. If he were the D and Hillary were the R, the Machado thing would have blown up in her face badly.

In my last post, I meant, “it *couldn’t* hurt.” I think it would be great if he gave another speech like you described. I just don’t think it would change much.