Posted on 03/01/2020 11:02:59 AM PST by DouglasKC
There seems to be quite a few opinions about COVID 19, or the corona virus. Some say it's not a threat...that it's no worse than the flu or the common cold. Others think that it may be the end of civilization as we know it.
What is the truth? Let's look at one truth first.
The truth is that governments all over the world are taking it very seriously.
As President Trump has pointed out he banned travel to and from the affected regions of China long before anybody thought it was prudent. Early on he also instituted mass quarantines of some who had arrived from Wuhan as well as from an infected cruise ship.
When the virus first started in Wuhan the Chinese government took even more drastic measures such as mass quarantines, blockading of entire cities, shutting down virtually all places of employment and schools. They have basically banned public gatherings.
In fact EVERY place where it has spread and taken hold governments of all political stripes and forms have instituted similar measures. South Korea, Japan, Italy, Singapore, France, the United States and every other country has instituted aggressive tracing of the virus, quarantines and other measures designed to slow, limit or stop the spread.
It's clear that NO government wants this to be loose in their populations. Why?
The reason why is simple. It's stated in almost every government pronouncement about this virus including the United States. It's contained in this sentence:
"For 80% of those who get this virus their symptoms will be mild and won't require hospitalization."
What's the problem? The problem is that this means that in 20% of the cases the symptoms will NOT be mild and WILL require some type of medical intervention. THIS is what governments are worried about. Why?
First of all it's widely acknowledged that THIS virus spreads as easily as the flu or the common cold. MOST scientists say that it spread MORE rapidly than either of these. But let's say it ONLY spreads as rapidly as the common flu.
In an average year 5% to 20% of the population of the United States will get the flu. (Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics). The US population is about 370,000,000. Let's go with a very low flu season at 5% infected:
370 million X 5% = 18,500,000 infected in a year from the common flu.
So IF nothing is done AND this thing ONLY infects the same amount as an average flu year there will be 18,500,000 infected by the corona virus.
Remember that 20% WILL require some type of medical intervention...i.e. severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or other medical intervention.
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.
Let's say that the experts are wrong and only 10% will require hospitalization.
18,500,000 x 10% = 1,850,000 requiring hospitalization.
So our scenario is this: IF nothing is done and it spreads at the very low end of the spread of influenza then we are talking about 18.5 million infected. And IF the experts are wrong and only 10% require hospitalization then that is 1.8 million people needing to be hospitalized basically so they don't die.
Well what's the problem? The problem is this: In the United States there are ONLY 924,107 TOTAL STAFFED BEDS IN ALL US HOSPITALS (Source: aha.org https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals).
Do you see the problem? These beds are not currently all open and waiting. They are filled by patients who have every other type of illness or injury requiring a hospital stay. We do NOT have enough capacity at our hospitals to even accommodate a best case scenario for the spread of this virus.
Get it? If this is NOT stopped or slowed or limited then it will essentially break the health care systems of every country it infects.
Governments have THREE choices:
1. Spend trillions of dollars to build enough capacity to handle all of the patients, year in and year out, or Corona virus.
2. Do not treat severe corona virus cases. Let them die.
3. A combination of the above.
None of these are attractive to any government. These are all non-starters.
IF governments do nothing to stop its spread they face a lot of bad choices. This is EXACTLY why every government of the face of the earth is taking draconian measures to contain this virus even if they don't say so.
Because in this modern day world everybody expect governments to solve everything. We’re overly dependent.
We will all die of old age before we get verified numbers out of China and Iran. ;-)
I accounted for that. I used a very low 10% figure of hospitalization with a very low spread rate. But even if it's only 5% then it still breaks the healthcare system.
Bump!
I'm sure that figures in the equation as well. The "flu" shot doesn't cover all mutations of influenza and WHEN (not if) this mutates there won't be a single vaccine that can handle it.
They are not going to die. Not most of them.
It will overwhelm critical care situations. But any virus on top of the flu would do that. Don’t have a heart attack when that happens.
It is likely this will “fade” by summer and come back. The second time around the globe was the worst for the Spanish Flu. They could be willing to let it run now, and gear up for fall.
The economic impact will be greater than the health to you and me.
The mistake that this post makes is that the 20% who may require more intense medical treatment won’t all require it at once. This would be spread over several months as people recover and free up hospital resources for others.
Also, a lot of hospital beds are used for recovery of elective surgery procedures which could be postponed in the event the beds are needed for the critically ill.
A greater concern is the impact that the higher transmissibility of the virus might have on health care workers if a significant number need to be removed from their duties to prevent spreading the infection. One strategy would be to train up a medical reserve force in essential care and safety measures to supplement the professionals if they are depleated.
I disagree. The post may have nothing new but is a well put reflection on the worlds reaction to these events and it provides math stats/estimates that make sense toward the situation.
A designer disease from the One World Government crowd?
Massive world depopulation is very likely if your numbers hold true.
Your analysis misses the point that in developed nations like the US and Europe, sanitation, public health measures, and medical research, prevention, and care are far more substantial and effective than in China and most of Asia. Moreover, the form of government makes a difference, with ethnically Chinese but free Taiwan and Singapore doing a far better job of dealing with the virus than mainland China. When COVID-19 reaches the US in force, it is likely to have only a relatively small impact on American public health.
Here is what I think happened. China came out with their bland statements. The intel community looked at the satellite photos, saw bodies on the streets, (which we have all seen videos of) and said, “They’re lying.” Trump had to make a call. He froze traffic from the affected areas. Trump can’t come out and say the Chinese are lying because he has to keep communications open with them. If he causes them to lose face, or provokes riots in China and Xi gets deposed, then communications break down and China goes from horrible to worse. That would be bad for everybody. As horrible as the CCP is, it is keeping order and is doing something. Believe it or not, things would be much worse right now if they were not in charge. Also, if there is a civil war it will be a civil war with nukes.
But, worst of all, the US and the world are sourcing 80-90% of our medicines and medical supplies from China. In the short term that could be a biblical disaster. I am certain that Trump is addressing that situation as he already was addressing the imbalance in other supplies behind the scenes. Despite what the ridiculous Democratic clown parade says, Trump is the right man in the right job at the right time. Let’s hope we have sufficient time to recover so this doesn’t become a biblical disaster.
You got that right.
A few years ago when I was taken by ambulance with my second stroke in mid winter, the hospital , just south of Boton was at overcapacity, with people in beds sleeping in the corridors.
Also you can't just have more competent doctors and nurses immediately available. -Tom
Curious, do you think the numbers out of China are higher or lower than reported.
Most people agree the numbers are crap.
But did overall death rates rise or fall from their reported
Their “reported” death rates are about 10x the flu.
But you are correct. We don’t know yet.
Curious, do you think the numbers out of China are higher or lower than reported.
Most people agree the numbers are crap.
But did overall death rates rise or fall from their reported
Their “reported” death rates are about 10x the flu.
But you are correct. We don’t know yet.
Talk about overthinking it.
Sorry, but who has any idea what you’re trying to say.
Don’t take this personal. I’m just being straightforward.
Intravenous It C works but no one wants to use it. It’s too simple and easy and cheap. http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n07.shtml
If our government was as competent as Singapore's, I wouldn't worry. Look at Italy as modern, western, democracy to see how it might spread here. Note that it is hitting Lombardy, the wealthy, more western European north part of Italy, not the south. 9 days ago, there were 3 confirmed cases in Italy, now there are 1,128. If things accelerate at that rate in the US, we are in big trouble.
Be afraid!
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What happened to "other intervention" in your calculations? The next line down you use the full 20% to calculate hospitalizations. What if say 3% need hospitalizations and other will need a doctor's visit/medications, some will ignore symptoms until they are ill enough to need an ER and are sent home with meds (in CA many undocumented go to the ER if they can't control symptoms), some will have complications from other illnesses, some may just have an ugly flu experience that causes them to tough it out at home with meds longer than usual.
It should read,
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring medical intervention.
WHo knows how many of those 20% need prescriptions vs hospitalization? What percentages apply to severe flu years in the past?
“EVERY single government and government official on the face of the earth INCLUDING President Trump and VP Pence who are taking it just as seriously?”
That’s a bit of histrionics, dontcha think?
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