Posted on 03/01/2020 11:02:59 AM PST by DouglasKC
There seems to be quite a few opinions about COVID 19, or the corona virus. Some say it's not a threat...that it's no worse than the flu or the common cold. Others think that it may be the end of civilization as we know it.
What is the truth? Let's look at one truth first.
The truth is that governments all over the world are taking it very seriously.
As President Trump has pointed out he banned travel to and from the affected regions of China long before anybody thought it was prudent. Early on he also instituted mass quarantines of some who had arrived from Wuhan as well as from an infected cruise ship.
When the virus first started in Wuhan the Chinese government took even more drastic measures such as mass quarantines, blockading of entire cities, shutting down virtually all places of employment and schools. They have basically banned public gatherings.
In fact EVERY place where it has spread and taken hold governments of all political stripes and forms have instituted similar measures. South Korea, Japan, Italy, Singapore, France, the United States and every other country has instituted aggressive tracing of the virus, quarantines and other measures designed to slow, limit or stop the spread.
It's clear that NO government wants this to be loose in their populations. Why?
The reason why is simple. It's stated in almost every government pronouncement about this virus including the United States. It's contained in this sentence:
"For 80% of those who get this virus their symptoms will be mild and won't require hospitalization."
What's the problem? The problem is that this means that in 20% of the cases the symptoms will NOT be mild and WILL require some type of medical intervention. THIS is what governments are worried about. Why?
First of all it's widely acknowledged that THIS virus spreads as easily as the flu or the common cold. MOST scientists say that it spread MORE rapidly than either of these. But let's say it ONLY spreads as rapidly as the common flu.
In an average year 5% to 20% of the population of the United States will get the flu. (Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics). The US population is about 370,000,000. Let's go with a very low flu season at 5% infected:
370 million X 5% = 18,500,000 infected in a year from the common flu.
So IF nothing is done AND this thing ONLY infects the same amount as an average flu year there will be 18,500,000 infected by the corona virus.
Remember that 20% WILL require some type of medical intervention...i.e. severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or other medical intervention.
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.
Let's say that the experts are wrong and only 10% will require hospitalization.
18,500,000 x 10% = 1,850,000 requiring hospitalization.
So our scenario is this: IF nothing is done and it spreads at the very low end of the spread of influenza then we are talking about 18.5 million infected. And IF the experts are wrong and only 10% require hospitalization then that is 1.8 million people needing to be hospitalized basically so they don't die.
Well what's the problem? The problem is this: In the United States there are ONLY 924,107 TOTAL STAFFED BEDS IN ALL US HOSPITALS (Source: aha.org https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals).
Do you see the problem? These beds are not currently all open and waiting. They are filled by patients who have every other type of illness or injury requiring a hospital stay. We do NOT have enough capacity at our hospitals to even accommodate a best case scenario for the spread of this virus.
Get it? If this is NOT stopped or slowed or limited then it will essentially break the health care systems of every country it infects.
Governments have THREE choices:
1. Spend trillions of dollars to build enough capacity to handle all of the patients, year in and year out, or Corona virus.
2. Do not treat severe corona virus cases. Let them die.
3. A combination of the above.
None of these are attractive to any government. These are all non-starters.
IF governments do nothing to stop its spread they face a lot of bad choices. This is EXACTLY why every government of the face of the earth is taking draconian measures to contain this virus even if they don't say so.
just out of Yran
Ali Arouzi
@aliarouzi
#Iran’s health minister says that 300000 teams, including members of the Basij are going to be deployed nationwide to go from house to house to find people that may have contracted #CoronaVirus as Iran scrambles to deal with outbreak.
Most governments? Probably as an excuse to gather more power to themselves. Governments generally love crises.
ALL governments are taking this VERY seriously.
If Hospital beds ran out health Authorities would commandeer municipal halls/auditoriums for “Field” hospitals.
Why? The mortality rate is very high compared to the flu. Consider 4.5% in US and even higher in Italy. Consider the permanent damage. But probably because there is more to this than a super flu. China didn’t shut down the country and bulldoze roads for a simple flu. That’s a reality check on why to take this seriously and ask more about it all. Was the source the biological labs in Wuhan? Lots of questions...
“The truth is that governments all over the world are taking it very seriously.”
So, the conclusion is that the government is good and knowledgeable and doing the right thing when we know government is actually full of idiot left wingers who are reactionary to public consensus??
But only up to a certain size. Then those governments have to do something to handle the crises or lose credibility.
More generally, government love the promotion of crises above their actual severity, in order to steer the public in certain directions, to boost their esteem, and to (as you've pointed out) accrue power.
“ALL governments are taking this VERY seriously.”
All but one, it seems.
I'm sure they would. But it's not just beds. It's respirators, IV's, saline solution, medicines, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc...IF they want to treat them.
EVERY single government and government official on the face of the earth INCLUDING President Trump and VP Pence who are taking it just as seriously?
This post is worthless. You don’t say anything new, or useful.
A thoughtful attempt. I believe we will find medical treatment of some sort could be 10% of those that get infected, but hospitalization at 1% or less. We will see. I just am not that concerned in the grand scheme of things.
It sounds like they will infect the “teams” who will spread the infection all over the country.
Clever! ;-)
That's certainly a part of the equation. But the main problem is pointed out in the post.
“Some type of medical intervention...”
That does not mean hospitalization. It means you may have to go to a doc for some drugs to help knock down the bronchitis or pneumonia
The hysteria is over blown
I think you are exactly right.
And summer is coming which may help, but they have to slow it enough for warmer weather to start helping.
Every hotspot has to be contained.
I think it's useful to know WHY every government on the face of the earth has taken unprecedented steps to stop or contain the spread of the virus.
No the death rate isn’t high compared to the flu
When we actually get some verified numbers out of China,Iran,South Korea, Japan then we can talk
I think much of the fear is of the virus mutating.
In 2002 a southern China coronavirus mutated by the time it got to Canada. It became a lot more lethal but also a lot less transmittable, so it quickly petered out.
But what if the mutation increased transmission instead of decreased.
There will be so many of these viruses over hundreds of years, only a rare few will mutate into something terrible. Which one? Who knows.
Sure, this one probably won’t kill anything like a superflu, but there’s that rare chance it mutates into something worse than it is now.
I don’t see many people addressing this subject of mutation
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