Posted on 03/01/2020 11:02:59 AM PST by DouglasKC
Because in this modern day world everybody expect governments to solve everything. We’re overly dependent.
We will all die of old age before we get verified numbers out of China and Iran. ;-)
I accounted for that. I used a very low 10% figure of hospitalization with a very low spread rate. But even if it's only 5% then it still breaks the healthcare system.
Bump!
I'm sure that figures in the equation as well. The "flu" shot doesn't cover all mutations of influenza and WHEN (not if) this mutates there won't be a single vaccine that can handle it.
They are not going to die. Not most of them.
It will overwhelm critical care situations. But any virus on top of the flu would do that. Don’t have a heart attack when that happens.
It is likely this will “fade” by summer and come back. The second time around the globe was the worst for the Spanish Flu. They could be willing to let it run now, and gear up for fall.
The economic impact will be greater than the health to you and me.
The mistake that this post makes is that the 20% who may require more intense medical treatment won’t all require it at once. This would be spread over several months as people recover and free up hospital resources for others.
Also, a lot of hospital beds are used for recovery of elective surgery procedures which could be postponed in the event the beds are needed for the critically ill.
A greater concern is the impact that the higher transmissibility of the virus might have on health care workers if a significant number need to be removed from their duties to prevent spreading the infection. One strategy would be to train up a medical reserve force in essential care and safety measures to supplement the professionals if they are depleated.
I disagree. The post may have nothing new but is a well put reflection on the worlds reaction to these events and it provides math stats/estimates that make sense toward the situation.
A designer disease from the One World Government crowd?
Massive world depopulation is very likely if your numbers hold true.
Your analysis misses the point that in developed nations like the US and Europe, sanitation, public health measures, and medical research, prevention, and care are far more substantial and effective than in China and most of Asia. Moreover, the form of government makes a difference, with ethnically Chinese but free Taiwan and Singapore doing a far better job of dealing with the virus than mainland China. When COVID-19 reaches the US in force, it is likely to have only a relatively small impact on American public health.
Here is what I think happened. China came out with their bland statements. The intel community looked at the satellite photos, saw bodies on the streets, (which we have all seen videos of) and said, “They’re lying.” Trump had to make a call. He froze traffic from the affected areas. Trump can’t come out and say the Chinese are lying because he has to keep communications open with them. If he causes them to lose face, or provokes riots in China and Xi gets deposed, then communications break down and China goes from horrible to worse. That would be bad for everybody. As horrible as the CCP is, it is keeping order and is doing something. Believe it or not, things would be much worse right now if they were not in charge. Also, if there is a civil war it will be a civil war with nukes.
But, worst of all, the US and the world are sourcing 80-90% of our medicines and medical supplies from China. In the short term that could be a biblical disaster. I am certain that Trump is addressing that situation as he already was addressing the imbalance in other supplies behind the scenes. Despite what the ridiculous Democratic clown parade says, Trump is the right man in the right job at the right time. Let’s hope we have sufficient time to recover so this doesn’t become a biblical disaster.
You got that right.
A few years ago when I was taken by ambulance with my second stroke in mid winter, the hospital , just south of Boton was at overcapacity, with people in beds sleeping in the corridors.
Also you can't just have more competent doctors and nurses immediately available. -Tom
Curious, do you think the numbers out of China are higher or lower than reported.
Most people agree the numbers are crap.
But did overall death rates rise or fall from their reported
Their “reported” death rates are about 10x the flu.
But you are correct. We don’t know yet.
Curious, do you think the numbers out of China are higher or lower than reported.
Most people agree the numbers are crap.
But did overall death rates rise or fall from their reported
Their “reported” death rates are about 10x the flu.
But you are correct. We don’t know yet.
Talk about overthinking it.
Sorry, but who has any idea what you’re trying to say.
Don’t take this personal. I’m just being straightforward.
Intravenous It C works but no one wants to use it. It’s too simple and easy and cheap. http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n07.shtml
If our government was as competent as Singapore's, I wouldn't worry. Look at Italy as modern, western, democracy to see how it might spread here. Note that it is hitting Lombardy, the wealthy, more western European north part of Italy, not the south. 9 days ago, there were 3 confirmed cases in Italy, now there are 1,128. If things accelerate at that rate in the US, we are in big trouble.
Be afraid!
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What happened to "other intervention" in your calculations? The next line down you use the full 20% to calculate hospitalizations. What if say 3% need hospitalizations and other will need a doctor's visit/medications, some will ignore symptoms until they are ill enough to need an ER and are sent home with meds (in CA many undocumented go to the ER if they can't control symptoms), some will have complications from other illnesses, some may just have an ugly flu experience that causes them to tough it out at home with meds longer than usual.
It should read,
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring medical intervention.
WHo knows how many of those 20% need prescriptions vs hospitalization? What percentages apply to severe flu years in the past?
“EVERY single government and government official on the face of the earth INCLUDING President Trump and VP Pence who are taking it just as seriously?”
That’s a bit of histrionics, dontcha think?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.