18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.
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What happened to "other intervention" in your calculations? The next line down you use the full 20% to calculate hospitalizations. What if say 3% need hospitalizations and other will need a doctor's visit/medications, some will ignore symptoms until they are ill enough to need an ER and are sent home with meds (in CA many undocumented go to the ER if they can't control symptoms), some will have complications from other illnesses, some may just have an ugly flu experience that causes them to tough it out at home with meds longer than usual.
It should read,
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring medical intervention.
WHo knows how many of those 20% need prescriptions vs hospitalization? What percentages apply to severe flu years in the past?
I didn't spell it out but addressed it by using a very low number of hospitalizations, 10%...or half of the generally agreed upon figure of 20% for severe symptoms. But even at 5% it's still way above capacity.