Why are Governments Trying To Stop Corona virus?

vanity | Today | Self

[DouglasKC]

There seems to be quite a few opinions about COVID 19, or the corona virus. Some say it's not a threat...that it's no worse than the flu or the common cold. Others think that it may be the end of civilization as we know it.

What is the truth? Let's look at one truth first.

The truth is that governments all over the world are taking it very seriously.

As President Trump has pointed out he banned travel to and from the affected regions of China long before anybody thought it was prudent. Early on he also instituted mass quarantines of some who had arrived from Wuhan as well as from an infected cruise ship.

When the virus first started in Wuhan the Chinese government took even more drastic measures such as mass quarantines, blockading of entire cities, shutting down virtually all places of employment and schools. They have basically banned public gatherings.

In fact EVERY place where it has spread and taken hold governments of all political stripes and forms have instituted similar measures. South Korea, Japan, Italy, Singapore, France, the United States and every other country has instituted aggressive tracing of the virus, quarantines and other measures designed to slow, limit or stop the spread.

It's clear that NO government wants this to be loose in their populations. Why?

The reason why is simple. It's stated in almost every government pronouncement about this virus including the United States. It's contained in this sentence:

"For 80% of those who get this virus their symptoms will be mild and won't require hospitalization."

What's the problem? The problem is that this means that in 20% of the cases the symptoms will NOT be mild and WILL require some type of medical intervention. THIS is what governments are worried about. Why?

First of all it's widely acknowledged that THIS virus spreads as easily as the flu or the common cold. MOST scientists say that it spread MORE rapidly than either of these. But let's say it ONLY spreads as rapidly as the common flu.

In an average year 5% to 20% of the population of the United States will get the flu. (Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics). The US population is about 370,000,000. Let's go with a very low flu season at 5% infected:

370 million X 5% = 18,500,000 infected in a year from the common flu.

So IF nothing is done AND this thing ONLY infects the same amount as an average flu year there will be 18,500,000 infected by the corona virus.

Remember that 20% WILL require some type of medical intervention...i.e. severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or other medical intervention.

18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.

Let's say that the experts are wrong and only 10% will require hospitalization.

18,500,000 x 10% = 1,850,000 requiring hospitalization.

So our scenario is this: IF nothing is done and it spreads at the very low end of the spread of influenza then we are talking about 18.5 million infected. And IF the experts are wrong and only 10% require hospitalization then that is 1.8 million people needing to be hospitalized basically so they don't die.

Well what's the problem? The problem is this: In the United States there are ONLY 924,107 TOTAL STAFFED BEDS IN ALL US HOSPITALS (Source: aha.org https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals).

Do you see the problem? These beds are not currently all open and waiting. They are filled by patients who have every other type of illness or injury requiring a hospital stay. We do NOT have enough capacity at our hospitals to even accommodate a best case scenario for the spread of this virus.

Get it? If this is NOT stopped or slowed or limited then it will essentially break the health care systems of every country it infects.

Governments have THREE choices:

1. Spend trillions of dollars to build enough capacity to handle all of the patients, year in and year out, or Corona virus.
2. Do not treat severe corona virus cases. Let them die.
3. A combination of the above.

None of these are attractive to any government. These are all non-starters.

IF governments do nothing to stop its spread they face a lot of bad choices. This is EXACTLY why every government of the face of the earth is taking draconian measures to contain this virus even if they don't say so.

[DouglasKC]

18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring medical intervention. WHo knows how many of those 20% need prescriptions vs hospitalization? What percentages apply to severe flu years in the past?

I didn't spell it out but addressed it by using a very low number of hospitalizations, 10%...or half of the generally agreed upon figure of 20% for severe symptoms. But even at 5% it's still way above capacity.

[DouglasKC]

“EVERY single government and government official on the face of the earth INCLUDING President Trump and VP Pence who are taking it just as seriously?” That’s a bit of histrionics, dontcha think?

No I think it's a statement of fact.

[Wayne07]

BTW, my data was one day out of date. Italy now has 566 new cases of coronavirus and 5 new deaths, raising total to 1,694 cases and 34 dead since yesterday. That’s how fast things change in Western countries.

[DouglasKC]

Talk about overthinking it. Sorry, but who has any idea what you’re trying to say. Don’t take this personal. I’m just being straightforward.

No problem. Just pointing out that there's a good reason why governments around the world are taking it seriously.

[CodeToad]

1 death in the US so far. 1. You dramabugs have been screaming this would end the world as we know it for several months now. 1. Just 1 death.

You sound like the liberal global warming types telling us we have only got 10 years left.

[myerson]

The current daily mortality rate in the US is approximately 8.5 per 1000 people.

[ifinnegan]

“Just pointing out that there’s a good reason why governments around the world are taking it seriously.”

I agree.

It’s new (novel) and therefore unknown.

To use a word from a past politician, it’s prudent.

Err on the side of caution.

You should look up PHEMCE.

[Mount Athos]

I thought your question was a super good one to ask, the question of why governments are taking it so seriously.
Good topic for vanity cause it’s not addressed and asked in the media that i see.

I appreciate the gracious way you replied to other freeper.

High quality post

[Mount Athos]

Why would you accuse him of scare mongering when his post explicitly compared death rate to a typical annual flu?

He isn’t asking governments to take it more seriously, he is asking why they are taking it so seriously.

[Magic Fingers]

“No the death rate isn’t high compared to the flu. When we actually get some verified numbers out of China,Iran,South Korea, Japan then we can talk”

Your comment seems to imply that those countries are minimizing the death rate. Why do you think they would do that?

[Ponyexpress9790]

The possibility of 10 to 20% of the working population being at home JUST sick of the flu for 3 to 4 weeks is very serious economically.

[impactplayer]

Thanks! I’ve been looking for two days about the reason for the fear - mortality rates to not warrant the fear we see. This is the first thing I’ve seen which makes sense.

[Carriage Hill]

OR, just bring in 40-50 high-capacity portable incinerators to handle all the bodies, like China did:

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/china-deploys-40-incinerators-wuhan-21529067

&

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/china-deploys-40-mobile-incinerators-wuhan-report

[DouglasKC]

1 death in the US so far. 1. You dramabugs have been screaming this would end the world as we know it for several months now. 1. Just 1 death. You sound like the liberal global warming types telling us we have only got 10 years left.

Do you have an alternate reason why every government on the face of the earth including the United States government is taking this very seriously?

[yesthatjallen]

Thanks for this.

Just this morning I was playing with the numbers and I came up with similar results.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Ron
@CodeMonkeyZ

A Japanese biodata team has discovered that SARS-CoV-2 
as seen in Tokyo is different than what is seen in Kyoto and 
Nagoya.

[DouglasKC]

OR, just bring in 40-50 high-capacity portable incinerators to handle all the bodies, like China did:

I think that's just what they did. They decided NOT to treat the 20% and just see who lived and died...that's why the "hospitals" they are building look more like warehouses for the sick.

[exDemMom]

But let's say it ONLY spreads as rapidly as the common flu.
In an average year 5% to 20% of the population of the United States will get the flu. (Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics). The US population is about 370,000,000. Let's go with a very low flu season at 5% infected:
370 million X 5% = 18,500,000 infected in a year from the common flu.
So IF nothing is done AND this thing ONLY infects the same amount as an average flu year there will be 18,500,000 infected by the corona virus.

Your estimates are off for this reason:

No one has any preexisting immunity to this virus. The influenza or the common cold-causing strains of corona virus circulate in a population that is mostly immune. In a naive population, there could be hundreds of millions of cases.

I do not know off-hand what the R0 rate was for the 1917-1919 influenza pandemic, but I do know that they were converting any large building they could to hospitals. They also implemented containment measures. Millions of people died, including well over half a million in the US alone.

[Freedom56v2]

Code they have gone for 2 months with practically no screening or testing here in US.

They are starting Monday...

Come back here in 2 weeks after results in and prove all the “dramabugs” wrong.

[Freedom56v2]

Appeciate the post.