Replies

But let's say it ONLY spreads as rapidly as the common flu.
In an average year 5% to 20% of the population of the United States will get the flu. (Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics). The US population is about 370,000,000. Let's go with a very low flu season at 5% infected:
370 million X 5% = 18,500,000 infected in a year from the common flu.
So IF nothing is done AND this thing ONLY infects the same amount as an average flu year there will be 18,500,000 infected by the corona virus.

Your estimates are off for this reason:

No one has any preexisting immunity to this virus. The influenza or the common cold-causing strains of corona virus circulate in a population that is mostly immune. In a naive population, there could be hundreds of millions of cases.

I do not know off-hand what the R0 rate was for the 1917-1919 influenza pandemic, but I do know that they were converting any large building they could to hospitals. They also implemented containment measures. Millions of people died, including well over half a million in the US alone.

Your estimates are off for this reason: No one has any preexisting immunity to this virus. The influenza or the common cold-causing strains of corona virus circulate in a population that is mostly immune. In a naive population, there could be hundreds of millions of cases.

I know they are. I was purposely using very low numbers and a best case scenario in order to show why governments are worried. The actual numbers are what really frightens them.