Free Republic

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections. "Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the...

"In a private conversation he had with the vice president before the luncheon, Bilbray said he told Cheney the No. 1 message he wanted Cheney to carry back to the president was 'no amnesty for illegal immigrants.' "Bilbray said that when he said that to Cheney, who did not speak with reporters Tuesday, the vice president 'said tactfully, "I hope you are on the conference committee that discusses immigration with the Senate."'"