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This is a full outline of the Texas Complaint in Twenty Minutes on YouTube . . . Elections are at the heart of our constitutional democracy. A dark cloud hangs over the 2020 presidential election. Using the Covid-19 pandemic as a justification, government officials usurp their legislature’s authority and unconstitutionally revise their state’s election statutes. These same government officials flooded the defendant states with millions of ballots to be sent through the mails or placed in drop boxes with little or no chain of custody, and at the same time weakened the strongest security measures protecting the integrity of the...

Most Accurate in 2016 - This projection is based on polls and the early vote in the four battleground states that offer hard data and a high level of confidence, not TargetSmart estimates. Each projection is rooted in our interpretation of polling, which was the most accurate in 2016, or in the early vote. We projected both the popular vote and 48 of 50 states correclty in 2016. Key States: Pennsylvania - While Democrats are building a large lead in the early vote, their ballot request total (ceiling) does not match expectations while Republicans' requests exceed forecasts. Ballot request totals...

My poll averages show the race has closed to within 17 electoral votes. Click the links to the right to see the polls and the map to see the electoral college. Likely voters in blue wall and red base states are coming back to Trump. Biden is acting like a candidate in trouble because he is. Blue state changes: WI, MN, MI; red ones: IA, GA, OH. Despite national and some battleground polls showing Biden with a high single digit lead, the voter turnout assumptions undergirding those leads are not only wrong but laughably so. Most polls reflecting such leads...

01/24/17   Why Trump can Easily Win Reelection with an Approval Rating Below 50% Aaron Rossiter | 1/24/17 | 1:17 PMDonald Trump won the election on November 8th with a favorability rating of about 42%. Today, when combining an equal number of polls including all adults and those including only voters, he has an average favorable rating of 46.0%. The headlines in much of the mainstream media identify Trump as having the lowest favorable rating of any incoming president in history. I will explain why this does not matter for Trump's reelection. Pundits Wrongly Treat Favorability Like an Ironclad...

01/13/17   Why CNN's report was even worse than BuzzFeed's unsubstantiated report Aaron Rossiter | 1/13/17 | 11:50PM/ESTCNN reported that a two-page summary of a political opposition research file compiled by Trump's political opponents was included in a presidential level classified briefing. In the CNN report, they indicated that the intelligence chiefs considered the political operative who compiled the file credible and his sources credible. WATCH JAKE TAPPER'S REVIEW OF THE REPORTBecause it cited the intelligence chiefs as likely believing the political operative, the CNN report left a strong impression that the file probably contained true information. The BuzzFeed...

12/14/16 - Photos modified 1 | 2   Nunes & King: CIA may be manipulating intelligence for political purposes, creating "house of cards" Aaron Rossiter | 12/14/16 | 10:54 PMFox News reported earlier that the CIA refused to provide a briefer to the House Intelligence Committee, the highest ranking committee in government with jurisdiction over the CIA. House Intelligence Committee chairmen Nunes had requested the briefing in light of the fact that current news reports regarding Russia's alleged political intervention conflict with information the committee had received from intelligence agencies previously. According to Fox News, Nunes said that the...

12/06/16 - Photos 1 | 2   Alexander Hamilton would be appalled by Suprun's objections Trump easily passes the test of Federalist 68, but Suprun's relied upon authorities do not Texas Elector does not understand his role Christopher Suprun has declared to the world in the New York Times that he will not vote for Trump despite his constituency voting for Trump. His argument for disenfranchising those who he represents is childishly simple and petty. He does not understand Federalist 68 and actually appeals to the moral authority of those who advocate reckless globalization of the American economy and...

12/02/16   Evidence of potentially widespread voter fraud emerges in Nevada Edward Snowden and Waylon Jennings are both registered to vote in Nevada's 15th district Photos were modified 1 | 2 Nevada is one of the only states where Hillary over performed her polls The real reason recounts were requested in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is that Hillary polled better in those states than she actually performed on election day. We know now that Hillary polled better almost everywhere than she actually performed because polling systemically overestimated Democratic turnout.In at least one state, however, she actually polled worse than she...

11/29/16   Trump's flag desecration Tweet reflects a Clinton proposal Trump tweeted a flag burning law that Hillary Clinton proposed in 2005 and the left savaged him, many who supported Hillary Clinton in the election Was Trump just making a point about leftist media and NeverTrumpers? The left went nuts about Trump's tweet, but never mentioned the fact that Hillary Clinton had proposed this very thing in 2005. All of the people below supported Hillary Clinton explicitly or at least would have preferred that Hillary be elected over Trump. David Frum, a NeverTrumper, seemed to support Hilary in the...

11/28/16   It looks like President-Elect Trump has found the man to replace Obamacare What has Congressman Price proposed to replace Obamacare? Image Price is the likely HHS secretary pick According to the New York Times, citing a transition team official, President-Elect Trump has tapped Congressman Price to head the Health and Human Services Department. He will control a $1 trillion budget and administer health programs that cover over 100 millions citizens. Congressman Tom Price is a medical doctor who worked in price practice as an orthopedic surgeon and spent some time teaching at the Emory University School of...

11/28/16   Winning the electoral college with 306 votes is a popular vote win The electoral college cools the passions of current popular will by spreading popular power over time. History has shown us why this is a better system.FRENCH REVOLUTION- Death of the Princess De Lamballe, by Leon Maxime Favre Trump won a big popular vote victory as measured by House seats To win 306 electoral votes, a candidate must win jurisdictions that govern a majority of the population of the United States. Electoral votes are allocated in part based on population and Trump won a majority of...

11/26/16   Jill Stein is just promoting herself with the recounts Stein knows Hillary can't win. The recounts are designed to stoke anger and Stein hopes to gain followers. Some modifications made to photo Some have speculated that Jill Stein is doing Hillary's work, but that's unlikely If Jill Stein was doing Hillary's work, it's unlikely that Stein would be insulting her as a hypocrite, phony and a corporatist sellout on Twitter. But she has insulted Hillary and the Democrats plenty on Twitter tonight. The Stein Scheme: Get in front of an angry mob and become their hero It...

11/24/16   Michigan vote certified, no recount has ever overturned a lead this size If elections fall within 2000 votes in Michigan, an automatic recount is triggered Some modifications made to photo Trump leads in Michigan by more than Hillary led in New Hampshire Trump has defeated Hillary Clinton for the presidency in the state of Michigan by a margin of 10,704 votes according to the Michigan Secretary of State. Despite the certification, no national television network has yet projected Trump the winner of Michigan's sixteen electoral votes. This is extremely unusual even in races decided by 0.23% of...

11/18/16   There were many fake social media stories, often thanks to left-wing sites Here is a list of fake left-wing websites designed to fool conservatives President Obama slams social media for pushing fake conservative news Our president slammed social media yesterday as responsible for allowing "fake news" stories to receive more clicks than real news. Obama was parroting a BuzzFeed story, yes BuzzFeed, that claimed that more fake news stories were clicked on social media than actual news. The allegation by BuzzFeed and the president implies that fake news allowed Trump to get elected. Whoa! Back it up...

11/17/16   Trump has split the Democrats into two bitterly divided camps Trump has trapped the Democrats: They must remain committed to environmental and immigration policies that will doom them politically Obama can boast of a fifty-seven percent approval rating, a number any president would be thrilled with. The problem for the Democrats is that Obama has virtually no ability to transfer that popularity to any other Democrat. Obama leads a coalition of millennials and African-Americans that carried him to two relatively easy presidential victories. Obama's army is driven by a purist commitment to leftist ideals but not to...

11/15/16   Obama's policy legacy lies in tatters The president's supporters have little recourse left but to shout in the streets One attempting to analyze this election might fall to the temptation to underestimate the significance of it. That person would err. This election holds broad and lasting implications for Obama's legacy and the future of America. I will outline briefly below the profound and lasting nature of the 2016 election. I will lay out Obama's most significant accomplishments and outline the prospects of those achievements lasting beyond Trump's first one hundred days.   Obama Achievement Fate of that...

11/13/16     Both Comey letters hurt Hillary because they reminded voters of who she is Clinton obstructed FBI investigators at every turn, an approach that fit a decades-long pattern of corruption The letters underscored Wikileaks exposure of a corrupt primary process and decades of corruption The day that Comey released his second letter stating that no new emails were found, I wrote the following article, Trump will not lose ground over Comey's announcement, may gain in MI and PA. In summary, I wrote in that article that simply raising the issue of Clinton's corruption, even in a light...

My Twitter account is just getting started. Follow me here! Ref's Performance Analysis for 2016 Electoral Vote Performance Summary   Previous Projections: 11/4/16 | 11/5/16 | 11/6/16 |Today's projection resulted from analysis of 142 polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks.   I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes *Why I see a strong chance for a Trump win in Pennsylvania or Michigan Changes since yesterday: 1. New Hampshire to Clinton: Clinton picked up 1.9 points in the polls only average, which put her ahead of Trump. Changes since the second projection...

Ref's Performance Analysis for 2016    *HELP US GET THE TRUTH OUT ABOUT THE POLLS DURING THE NEXT ELECTION. FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND LIKE US ON FACEBOOK. I use external links on this page as a method of time stamping my work. ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION: I predicted 48 of 50 states correctly. In the eleven states I identified as battlegrounds, my average error was 2.09%. I called five of those states with less than 1.0% error, including Florida, missing it only by 0.1%. My projection of Florida: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8. Actual Result: Trump 49.1, Clinton 47.8. To...

  Listen to my analysis of today's projection       Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/4/16 COMMENTS | This projection resulted from analysis of ninety-nine polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks.   I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes Polls Only - Clinton 272, Trump 251 Sample Bias - Clinton 268, Trump 270 Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Cinton 243, Trump 295 REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 243, Trump 295FBI refers to...