Show me any data whatsoever that confirms this.
Almost 87% of total world remaining oil reserves are located outside of North America and Europe, the majority of that belonging to OPEC nations.
While there are an estimated 800B barrels of potential shale oil, oil would have to stay over $100 a barrel for even 10% of that to be economically feasible. These resources require intense amounts of fresh water (which is in very short supply in the regions shale is found), create tons of pollution, and have a very low return on energy invested. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s best fields return about 30 units of energy per unit invested. These will return 4-6x, at best. They require tons of electricity and fuel to process, and the idea that we could ever replace Iran’s output is insane.
Even if we did, we’d exhaust those supplies rapidly.