Free Republic

Fox Going to call race for Bush after Alaska Polls Close - Brit Hume.

While watching the news and analysis later today (as much as you can stand) pay close attention to the anchors and pundits. They will be giving hints as to what the exit polls are showing. If Bush is up, they will telegraph by saying unusally complimentary things about him and vice versa. Please post any comments you may think signal something.

In the span of the last few hours, the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) has shifted from a 10 point Bush lead to a 10 point Kerry lead. Bush has led all year long. Today is the first day he is behind. Is there a great groundswell of support for Kerry out there? NO. However, the IEM has only 3000 "traders" who are mostly university professors. I smell a BIG rat. I believe that this last minute move to Kerry was pre-planned all along.

Stanford Electoral Predictor - Bush 84% Chance of Re-Election. Kerry 15% Chance of Winning.

Fox News Tracking K48 B46 11/01/04

New Fox Tracking Poll Due Out at 11:00 AM CDT

New Fox Tracking Poll Due Out at 11:00 AM CDT

Well, it turns out this particular streak already ended, eight years ago. According to blogger Justin Taylor, on whose posting we relied, the Redskins beat the Indianapolis Colts in 1996's last pre-election game, and the incumbent, Bill Clinton, was re-elected. It's true of course that Clinton won, and the Redskins did beat the Colts, 31-16 — but that game took place Oct. 27, eight years ago yesterday. On Nov. 3, the 7-1 Skins lost to the 5-3 Buffalo Bills, 38-13 — and the incumbent president won two days later.

Terry McAwful just said that the dems are ahead in Florida absentee exit polls by "double digits." And they are ahead in Iowa in exit polls. What is he smoking???? Ed Gillespie did not dispute him about it. Any evidence of absentee exit polling numbers????

Here a question for you freepers who know a thing about polls. Looking at the realclearpolitics.com battleground polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html) I noticed in just about every state, when the polling sample is larger, say 801 to 1500 respondants, Bush's percentage drastically increase. But when the polling sample is small, say 501 or 601, Kerry does better. Does anyone know why this is? Thanks.

Both Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracke (Beltway Boys) predicted Bush wins and will be the clear winner on Tuesday.

Ohio may become the major political blunder of the Bush/Cheney campaign team. As of today, Kerry is ahead from 2 to 6 points in the last 5 major polls. I was astonished to learn that Bush did not campaign in Ohio for 19 straight days. While the state seems to have a very strong get-out-the-vote effort by Republicans, the polls continue to slip. Why? Ohio has a Republican Governor, Republican Senators, and the state legislature is controlled by Republicans. Yet, they would put a treasonous war protestor in the White House? While Bush is doing well in several states that...

I proudly voted for President Bush and Vice President Cheney. While Texas is a solid red state, the line to vote absentee was long. I experienced a very smooth process. My registration card and drivers license was checked against the computer. There was one moron there that had to have the meaning of "straight ticket" explained to him. That was amusing. I was really hoping I would experience some form of voter intimidation, but at 6'1" and 250 pounds I guess I was too much of a challenge. Lots of grey panthers there. All in all, very smooth. I think...

The Official Pumpkin Poll Bush 60% Kerry 40%

The Tribune/KOIN (6) poll was conducted from Oct. 11-14 by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender, party affiliation, or regional groupings. 2004 PRESIDENTIAL RACE Do you...

10/18: FL - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 220) 10/17: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 220) 10/17: NH - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 254 - Kerry 241) 10/17: WI - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 237) 10/13: MN - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 237) 10/12: OR - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 227) 10/6: ME/CD2 - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 264 - Kerry 220) 10/6: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush...

Bush and Kerry Tied in New Jersey 46-46.

You know what? Forget the polls. During my appearance on Hugh Hewitt's radio show last night, the genial host gently criticized the Kerry Spot and NRO's folks in The Corner of being too pessimistic about Bush's chances. Hugh does have a strong case that the opinion polls should be ignored. And this isn't the typical loser's whine that "the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day." What model are all the current pollsters using for turnout? At least some of them, if not most of them, are using the most recent presidential election. That would be in...

I hope I heard incorrectly, but I believe E.D. Hill on Fox and Friends said that the Bush Campaign is pulling its ads from Pennsylvania. Is this true??

<p>A faded 35-year-old operations order recovered from the Naval Historical Center in Washington bears directly on the ongoing dispute between Sen. John Kerry and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth about who wrote the key after-action report that ended Kerry's service in Vietnam. The report appears in the official Navy records and is posted on Kerry's presidential campaign Web site.</p>