Look Into The Eye of The Storm: 32 Hours Til Isabel Arrives

NHC | 9-17-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Good Morning Freepers....

[bd476]

Thanks for noticing (grin). Monitoring extreme weather conditions makes a fascinating science lesson but more importantly, this serves as a great lesson in preparedness.

[Interesting Times]

Check this out.

[Miss Marple]

I vote that this winter we FORCE rwfromkansas to start a blizzard thread, so that everyone can tell him it's really not THAT cold, and everyone is making a big deal out of nothing, and 4-foot snow drifts are just small potatoes.

[Sally'sConcerns]

I want an ignore feature on the next FR upgrade.

[CyberCowboy777]

What do you folks think the impact on N.C. is going to be?

I have a buddy who with his wife and kid live down there.

[rwfromkansas]

Look, my hyperbole is in response to the ideas on here that this storm is going to be some worst hurricane in American history etc.....obviously not true. It is also in response to the ideas from you folks in pretty windless states (KS is the windiest state in teh union) that 40 mph is just something fierce.

If it stays at 105 mph until landfall and actually hits that a good portion of the time, that will be trouble and it will cause lots of damage.

[NautiNurse]

WOW! That pic just became my wallpaper!

[jacquej]

Thoguth you might be interested in the latest from our friend over on storm2k...

"Apparently what is going on with Isabel is the top and mid levels of the hurricane are intensifying....why the winds at 10,000' flight level are 130-140 mph -- but the low levels of the storm near the ocean's surface are still only running 100-110 mph, due to the lack of convection in the eyewall.....and this hurricane still has to cross the GULF STREAM

How many times in the past 25 years have we seen hurricanes cross the gulf stream and suddenly gain 10-15 mph in wind speed? Many....from Andrew in southeast Florida to Hugo in South Carolina to Bertha and Emily in North Carolina. I sat in amazement in 1993 as I watched the convection increase in the eyewall as hurricane Emily passed over the Gulf Stream SE of Cape Hatteras.

With upper level conditions improving over Isabel and expected to become even more favorable as she approaches the Carolina coast...if the hurricane recieves the same shot of convective energy crossing the gulf stream as Andrew, Bertha, and Emily did: watch out Morehead City to Virginia....because my estimate of 125 mph and 948 mb at landfall might be too low.....we might witness landfall at 135 mph and 938 mb -- as hurricane Hazel did in 1954.....and I wonder if Hazel was the same way -- and exploded over the gulf stream just before slamming into Myrtle Beach and Wilmington? Without satellite and radar at that time, we may never know (there was recon by the military in 1954, but it was used sparingly. Only three penetrations of hurricane Camille's eyewall were made in the 48 hours she took to cross the GOM from western Cuba to Mississippi).

This situation with hurricane Isabel is potentially catastrophic....and we may not know if, and how much she'll "blow up" in sustained wind speed while crossing the gulf stream UNTIL she's coming ashore -- making it even more imperative for EVERYONE on the Outer Banks and barrier islands southwestward to New Topsaid Beach be off those islands as soon as possible."

[honeygrl]

"Go pick on RW who's saying this is a little baby hurricane you can ride out easy"

I agree that RW should be picked on.

[Howlin]

I'm in the yellow zone!

[rwfromkansas]

4 foot snow drifts are small potatoes.

I have been in snowtorms, even blizzards. 7 foot.....now that's starting to be scary.

[Howlin]

Is that near Cedar Island?

[Amelia]

I'm reading an interesting thread and countering blatant lies and slander about me. I wasn't looking for an argument but you people just love to make them from whole cloth.

I found out everything I needed to know about you when you posted this:

Shows how ignorant you are. Hurricanes that hit the US at Cat 5 tend not to turn north up the coast and instead go across the Gulf through Texas and New Mexico and finally peter out over Southern Arizona, some of the nastiest flooding in AZ history (with fatalities BTW) is attributed to these beasts, nothing compared to what the South East gets of course but still nasty. I pay attention to the big ones because they really do present a danger to me.

If you just want to find out about hurricanes, you'd be better off lurking on the thread. JMHO.

[Howlin]

I SUGGEST THAT WE ALL STOP FEEDING THE TROLLS IF WE WANT TO FIND ANYTHING OUT TONIGHT

[Amelia]

Sounds like a great idea to me!

[bd476]

Thanks for posting these great webcams and glad to see that they are still working. I love watching the beach and the lighthouse is looking more and more like a nice place to hang out for a few days.

[Miss Marple]

Just remember, you are going to be REQUIRED to start a thread next winter. I will be looking you up when the January warnings start coming in. Mark your calendar.

[mykdsmom]

He's pointing to some offshore buoy readings. He won't say how far offshore though. Now he's saying 25 ft. seas already.

MKM

[discostu]

I can see countering the doomers a little (I enjoy that on the economics threads) but hurricanes can be real doom and gloom. And often one of the most important stats isn't really covered by it's category: directional speed. Hurricanes that just park on a spot are the ones that tend to do the most damage, even at tropical storm wind speeds when the days of that add up you get major devastation.

[ApesForEvolution]

4 foot snow drifts are *REALLY* small potatoes. (fwiw)